USDJPY Bounce off Support ZoneIf price falls to the support zone at 111.65, I will be looking to buy in this oversold market.
If anyone trades with a Stochastic RSI or just a plain stochastic, they will see that selling when it reaches overbought and price is in a downtrend or ranging, is profitable.
The same goes for buying when the stochastic is oversold and price is up trending or ranging.
I will be looking for bull confluence with bearish exhaustion candles and possibly a bullish engulfing if it forms.
Stochastic RSI (STOCH RSI)
Gold StallsGold stalled today and ended the day just above the BB Midpoint. Today's hammer is a bullish candlestick so while price is still under the 6 and 8 day MAs and the stoch RSI is moving down, I want to see confirmation on Monday as to the direction of Gold's next move.
Also note that the hammer shows rejection of the range below as shown on this chart: This is also not very bearish.
Due to these mixed signals, and the fact that today was contract rollover for Gold Futures, I closed my positions, banking a nice 18 point per contract profit.
Time Warner (TWX) Heading for Crash?Technical:
It seems TWX stock is now heading for a disaster, looking at the monthly and weekly charts, we have just completed a very lengthy correction, over several years in the making. My Elliott wave analysis for this pair, shows that if the current trend continues, the next impulse wave will send the stock to a crash. MACD confirms the end of the current upmove (the correction) and will now start to continue in a bearish trend. RSI and Stochastic, both indicate Overbought condition which aligns with the downward trend on the chart.
Fundamental:
Due to the continual irresponsibility of CNN management, employees not checking sources, stories and basically broadcasting irresponsible journalism and basically perpetuating political bias (where no doubt stakeholders have also been offended), the market is fast losing confidence as, once President Trump enters the White House after the official inauguration, legal and federal action will most likely be taken against the broadcaster and several anchors, thus the value of this stock will drop considerably, very quickly.
CNN has already been caught out numerous times in broadcasting fake news, all based on innuendo and rumor, without being fact based. This last episode today (12-Jan-2017 goldengatepee), originally published by buzzfeed, is noted as being totally fake. CNN's management have also failed to address this problem, as it seems anchors and journalists are making core decisions, rather than CNN's management. In my opinion, CNN is in an absolute mess and stakeholders are getting cold feet. The only way to save the stock, would be to address political bias and lazy journalism, something I cannot see happen anytime soon.
Therefore in lieu of the above analysis, I'm going to short this stock, trading with larger than usual lot size in order to maximize profit. If this trend is confirmed within the next couple of months, we should see a very rapid drop, at least to the base trendline, within a relatively short amount of time.
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DISCLAIMER: This chart is for sharing and educational purposes only and is not intended to be a signal service or similar.
Please do not trade this chart if you do not have your own strategy. Trade only with your own strategy.
Some very wise words: Plan your trade and trade your plan... and IF in doubt, stay out.
.....::::: If you like this chart, please click on the THUMBS UP ! :::::.....
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NFP - How Will Gold React to Non Farm Payroll?Good Evening Traders!
Well, here we are again, Gold trading just above the 1250 mark. Today was a solid day down, with Gold trading 16.7 points off the opening to close at 1253. We have come right to the top of this support area that was last seen on June 24, the day the British approved Brexit, and the day when Gold rallied 108 points in 1 day!. It's amazing isn't it how these cycles play out; 3 and a half months later and we are on the verge of another volatile day, but this time its Non Farm Payroll Friday.
As you can see in the chart, we have been riding the extreme edge of the Bollinger Bands. And as we know, this is not a sustainable situation as price will almost always pull back from such extremes. You can also see on the Stoch RSI that the green signal line has final crossed over the magenta line. While this doesn't necessarily mean that the down cycle is over and that price will reverse, it does give us a clue that it might happen soon. And given Non Farm Payroll day, the safest play might be to go to cash and protect your profits.
To recap, the 3 main factors to thinking that the pullback might be over are:
Price has spent 3 days on the outside edge of the outer Bollinger Band
Price is right at the upper edge of a major support zone
Stoch RSI signal line has started to cross above the magenta line
Following my own advise, I am closing all of my current short position except for 1 contract which will be a runner. With the stop at set at break even, it's a very safe play.
Safe Trading and Protect those Profits!
Gold Blasts Through All Major Support LinesGood Evening Traders!
I've been calling for the bottom of the current cycle and last night I pointed out that there was major support below my current Gold short @ 1305. There was the upward trend line dating back from January, the channel bottom from July 1, and the bottom BB Band (2.0 Std Dev), all sitting right at 1305. This was also confirmed by a Stoch RSI that was about to break below 20, signalling the possible end of this latest downward cycle. I went to bed last night confident that my final profit target of 1305 would be hit in the morning, ending my latest short that started at 1331.
Well, boy did I have a surprise when I woke up in the morning! I mean, price didn't even hesitate at the 1305 level. It blasted right through 1305, 1300 and there was no stopping it. If you look at any shorter time frame, you will see that this move down was dramatic and without any real pause or pullback.
In my post last night, I stated that the Stoch RSI is not a binary indicator. This means that just because it is oversold or overbought, doesn't mean that the cycle is over. The indicator can stay in these oversold/bought conditions for quite a some time. Look at the chart below. I've called out the period in late August when the Stoch RSI stayed oversold for over a week while price continued to move down.
If you're thinking of going long, I'd recommend waiting for the Stoch RSI green line to break above the 20 level and cross over the magenta line. If you want to go short, you can wait for a pullback. The bottom BB is at 1283. That could be a good entry point. That is, if price retraces that much.
Trade Safe and Protect Your Profits!
Using Multiple Timeframes to Enter a TradeHello Traders!
As many of you know, I use the Stoch RSI as my main cycle indicator. As an indicator of an indicator, it normalizes the RSI indicator itself and provides excellent guidance on the price cycles of Gold. And while I base my daily analysis on the Daily time frame, I use 2 shorter time frames to enter my positions. These time frames are 30 minutes and 60 minutes.
Let me give you a real life example from yesterday of how I added to an existing short position.
Last week ended with a beautiful down candle on the daily chart. Long upper wick and a full body that closed just a few points above the bottom of our wedge. With plenty of room left on the Stoch RSI before it crossed the 20 line, I wanted to add another position to my existing short. But I new that I didn't want to jump in at Friday's closing price. So how could I gauge any potential pullback and set an entry price?
The first thing I did was to look at the 30 and 60 min charts, specifically to find where price was on those charts in relation to the overall down cycle.
Here is the 30 min chart on Sunday night at 11 pm PST. It's clear from the Stoch RSI that price was at the bottom of it's cycle. Not an ideal time to enter a trade. And the same was true on the 60 min chart (bottom chart). Therefore, I wanted the Stoch RSI to cycle up to get the best possible entry price. Looking at the BB, I placed a limit order at the inner BB (1.0 Std. Dev) @ 1321, thinking that would give both Stoch RSIs enough time to complete an up cycle. Turns out that was pretty close to the high of the day!
I have had the best entries when I wait for the cycle indicators across multiple time frames to get in sync. Waiting for harmony across multiple time frames is a great way to create a repeatable system for entries and really helps to remove emotions from your trading.
I would love to hear if this technique is helpful!
Safe Trading and Protect Your Profits!
GOM Looking Very BullishGolden Dawn Minerals is showing a lot of bullish signs that it is ready for a potential new high. Support has been found at the 50MA as it has before, and the StochRSI is showing an oversold signal with the MACD about to cross to a bullish signal. Also I like this trade because volume has been continuing to increase and it is showing strength with a large bullish candle.
Wedge Broken Towards UpsideLithium X Energy Corp. has just broken the small wedge it has been forming. The reason I think this trade has a nice upside is because the StochRSI has been showing an oversold level for a while now, the squeeze momentum indicator is showing that squeeze is on, and the stoch is just above the 20MA which it has been respecting.
TSXV Micro-Cap Trend TradePure Energy Minerals has been on an uptrend over the past few months. As you can see on the chart, price has been following a trend line that the stock has recently met again. The price has been respecting the 20MA - 50MA during the uptrend and price is currently positioned right under the 20MA, for me this looks to be an area of value to buy for the next move up. It has just had a very bullish day and the StochRSI has shown it moving up from an oversold level, also the Squeeze Momentum Indicator is showing that the squeeze is currently on and the MACD is about to cross to a bullish signal. Next resistance is around $0.93 and my price target is $1.06
Trade valid until price closes below trend line.
Next Leg Up?Goldsource Mines has been on a clear uptrend over the past months. Every time it has had a new leg up it can be easily seen by a few inidications.
1. A broken Trendline
2. An oversold signal on the Stochastic RSI
3. A MACD crossover
4. Price meeting support at the 20MA or the bollinger bands.
GXS has just shown all of these signs and is looking like it is ready for its next leg up. It is currently trading 14% away from the upper bollinger band and the stocks all time high. Keep in mind every other time is has had one of these moves it has broken the upper BB, so this is looking like a possible 14+ percent move.
Climbing Higher with SilverA short term downtrend has been broken and there are several indications to buy. Volume has been increasing, MACD is showing it is about to cross, Stoch RSI is showing that the stock is not trading at an overbought level, and it is trading just above the 20 Day Moving Average which has been acting as a line of support/value for the past few months. Also with the recent rally of silver, this stock will climb even higher with its large silver mining projects in Peru having an estimated 290 million ounces in reserves.
NZD/USD Pin candle formationNZD/USD may be slowing down its momentum and could provide a nice opportunity for a quick trade.
-Pin candle formation at resisitance/swing high on 1H chart
-Pin candle formation on daily chart
-Stochastic RSI about to cross in overbought territory
-MACD bearish divergence
-RSI bearish divergence
GBPAUD POSSIBLE LONG?Pro's
- good reversal pattern.
- price sat at good support.
- recent break of downward trendline, now retesting.
- 0.5 Fib retracement level from previous swing low to high
Con's
- Trending against the trend
- Trading through EMA's including 50EMA on daily.
Thoughts? Please comment below
NZD/USD Bull Flag setup into Resistance-NZDUSD is currently forming a bull flag pattern
-The potential bottom of the flag found moving average, trendline, and Fib support
-Stochastic RSI is in oversold territory and may soon cross over
-With the poor non-farm payrolls report, and dovish tone from the FED, there may be a bearish outlook on USD since a June rate hike is probably no longer on the table
-The pattern will be confirmed by a breakout with a price target of 0.7056-0.7075, which is previous structure where the double top formed in late April and the length of the "flagpole"
Short CADJPYHi Traders,
Volume shows lesser people attracted in upmove (less demand). so i see the upmove just as an retracement.
Bat Pattern will formed soon.
Elliot ABC retracement is ended soon.
Stoch divergent
More than a reason to short this pair. and i will short this pair just like i planned
Good Luck
Reaffirming short from Dec 20, more trouble ahead for BTCAs I stated on 12/20, it was pretty much impossible for BTC to not sink further and significantly. Though it did have a short rebound for X-mas that was destined to be short lived. BTC is only down 7.25% since I made my prediction but with what the 3 hour through 2 week indicators show is trouble. The shorter 4 and 6 hour indicators show a reversal underway following this slight recovery. The one and two day MACDs have still not bottomed out; and worst of all, the 1week and 2week MACDs are looking like they've peaked. This would be their first downward movements since Aug/Sept when we were at 1500CNY/235USD. The StochRSI at 1week is showing its first downward cross since the early Nov. drop as well I would NOT take this lightly.
I'm still optimistic in the medium-term and I'd be very surprised if prices got anywhere near that low, but January could get really cold, really fast. If you are still in BTC I would have your alarms set and be ready to trade or at least hedge with a put option or two. If you are out, just don't get back in too quickly, it can be tempting to see the 2-hour MACD/RSI going positive and panic-buy, but I'd advise against it. 1 day indicators should be able to show us the way when it is time to return.
Valeant Pharma: Moving back downVRX may, at first glance, look like the bloodshed is over and is moving to recovery. Not just yet. The daily MACD and StochRSI are inching toward sell indicators (see screenshot) and despite the markets upward movements today (Mon 12/14), VRX's recovery was pretty modest as more shareholders exit as they see the fall incoming.
Bottom line: Put options are a possability for short-term holding if you have the risk appetite. If you don't, then definitely wait to buy (back) in if you have been considering it. If you're holding this in hopes of shaving some of your losses or bought thinking it was recovery time, sell. Sometimes the most profitable thing you can do is take a loss.
VRX's financials aren't bad by any means, but they're product pipeline is pretty weak. Consider Addyi, the "female viagra": in the first month on the market only 224 rx's for it were sold. The market is very narrow since it is only considered safe in post-menopausal women who don't drink and think its pretty dramatic side-effect profile is worth the risk. VRX has even hired on a crisis-management firm in response to antipicated F.T.C action in regard to their pricing practices.
Valeant should have never reached as high as it did and now the correction is coming. VRX has been around a while but thier $31bln market cap is absurd. They have a price to earnings of 54(!), an earning per share <$2, and still have a fairly high debt-to-assets ratio. Compare those stats to Shire who is $38bln but have an earning per share of $15, and a price-to-earnings of only $12.21.
USDJPY 3,2,1...GO!At first the MA200 and the EMA 50, then the strong resistance at 121.5 is finally broken after 2 close timed touches and successfully tested in a Bounce Back above. The Fibo is speaking a clear Language too. So the Price had enough Time (since late august) between ~121.5 and ~118.5 to collect some new Power for another long journey up. At least till the 1618 Line in the Chart is reached, but i want to make sure i trigger my T/P, so i orientate on the Blue drawn Trendline at the Top. We enter at 122.200 because i see Powerful Heikin Ashi Bars and i want to be in a safe distance to 121.5, so i can sleep Good at Night :D Possibly we have to expect a correction in the area around ~123.0, but i dont think it goes much deeper then 122 and turns back in right direction. Even if that happens we have enough air to breathe until we see the S/L at 121.184.