Apple Advanced Trade Setup , AAPL Options Analysis📉 We are looking to position ourselves into Apple ( AAPL ) for short term DOWNSIDE MOVEMENT.
- We have SOLD Calls to benefit from this position.
🛣️ For our route, we will be SELLING CALLS for the Strike Prices of $165 & $ 162.5, both EXPIRING August 26th .
- For those deciding to go with Option Puts, we would go 30 days out, @ $162.5-$165 Strike. We suggest reading below, and considering why
an expiration up to 45-60 days away could lead to more profit, if taking the Traditional Put route.
📋BREAKDOWN
We feel that AAPL will be peaking and rounding out this weekend. We can see this happening Wednesday-Friday, but we are so confident in this trade succeeding, we will be putting half our position in on Monday.
Apple we think has a high probability to fall a minimum of 4.8% over the next 3 weeks, with it initiating this week.
With September being the worst trading month of the year, we can see this precipitating well longer than the 5 weeks we stated, and going further than our nearly 5% predicted drop.
📉 We would also consider a Bear-Call Spread, or Bear-Put Spread.
(These are types of spread options, sometimes referred to as Vertical Spreads, and Credit/Debit Spreads. If you have never heard of these, they are similar
to options, but lower risk with a set max profit. These differ from traditional Calls & Puts, by not needing to move for them to close
successfully. If we use apple as an example, we are going to do a Bear-Call Spread for $164, with a day expiration. If apple is $164 on
the dot, or less we close the trade with max profit.
- 👨🏼🏫 These Spreads, both the Bear-Put & Bear-Call are placed the same way. You will sell a Put or Call for the lower stock value, and at
the same time buy a Put or Call respectively, for the higher value stock price.) For this route, we are doing a
Bear- Call Spread for August 26, for $162.5 - $165. ❗We will be closing the position, or putting a Stop-Loss to
close in profit once the trade is at %50 ROI
Stockanalysis
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPXUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 47% SPX, 53% Cash .
*I incorrectly mentioned that PCE numbers would be released today, they are scheduled for release tomorrow at 830am EST. The 2nd US Q2 GDP estimate was reported today at -0.6% compared to the previous Advanced estimate of -0.9% , the third and final Q2 estimate will be reported on 09/29/22. Equities, Cryptos and Energy are up while VIX, DXY, US Treasuries and Commodities (aside from Energy) are all down or flat. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard made a pitch for more frontloading to bring down inflation and mentioned that he'd like to see EOY FFR at 3.75%-4%. Bullard isn't a voting member on the rates but his view could gain momentum depending on tomorrow's July PCE report and August's Jobs + CPI numbers. The Risk-On appetite seems to be growing ahead of the anticipated speech by Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole tomorrow. Market consensus is that Powell will remain hawkish but tomorrow's PCE numbers may inspire a more dovish tone regarding end of year expectations. Key Upcoming Dates: US July PCE at 830am EST 08/26 ; UofM Final August Sentiment Survey Index at 10am EST 08/26 ; Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on 08/25-08/27 (Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak at 10am EST on 08/26).*
Price is currently trending up at $4199 and is still technically testing $4175 support. Volume remains Moderate (high) and has favored buyers in both of the last two sessions as Price tests $4175 support. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4290, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 56.73 after forming a trough at, and bouncing off of, 52.68 support. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session and is currently trending up at 12 as it approaches 18.32 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently beginning to form a trough at 55.35 minor support. ADX is currently beginning to form a trough at 25 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment.
If Price is able to close above $4175 in tomorrow's session, it will likely retest $4254 minor resistance before potentially retesting the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$4300 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, the next likely target would be a retest of the uptrend line from 06/16/22 at ~$4100 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (two b2b closes above) $4175.
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% SPX, 90% Cash.
*Equities and Cryptos are getting smashed as DXY and US Treasuries rally higher. Quite simply this is a response to global recessionary fears (amplified by last week's disappointing global economic data) and a commitment by the Fed to continue FFR hikes for the rest of the year. It seems as though investors are preparing for more hawkishness from Jerome Powell's upcoming speech in Jackson Hole on 08/26; which leaves tremendous surprise upside to markets if he gives any hints of dovishness. Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US August PMI at 945am EST 08/23 ; US Q2 Final GDP Estimate at 830am EST 08/25; US July PCE at 830am EST 08/26; UofM Final August Sentiment Survey Index at 10am EST 08/26; Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on 08/25-08/27.*
Price is currently trending down at $4138 and is still technically hanging on to $4175 support. Volume remains Moderate (high) and has favored sellers for two consecutive sessions; Price is currently trading in the second largest medium-term supply/demand zone on the chart. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4323 (this coincides with the 200 MA + the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021), this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 51 with no signs of trough formation and is technically testing 52.68 support; the next support is the uptrend line from 01/27/22 which coincides with 38 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 18.32 support with no sign of trough formation. MACD finally crossed over bearish today after 56 days being bullish and is currently trending down at 74; the next support (minor) is at 55.35. ADX is currently trending down at 29 as Price continues to fall, this is neutral at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here it will have to close above $4175 resistance to flip it back to support before it can attempt to retest $4254 minor resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from 06/16/22 at ~$4k psychological support . Mental Stop Loss: (two b2b closes above) $4175.
APPLE Short Position (NEW)We expect that the price will increase to the 180 price levels and then the price will drop to the 160 price levels. RSI is overbought. On 4h we can see that potential bearish divergences forming , but we still wait for bearish divergences on 1D timeframe to get more confirmation which may come at the key resistance.
Entry, stop-loss, and target levels are in the chart.
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPXUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 75% SPX, 25% Cash . *The BLS reported PPI numbers this morning and they followed in the footsteps of CPI by coming in lower than the month prior, from a 1% rise in June to a -0.5% drop in July. This was a surprise because consensus estimates had PPI rising by 0.2%, such a dramatic fall can largely be attributed to the 19% decline in national average retail gas prices since last month. Year over year, PPI registered its lowest rise from the 12 months prior at 7.6% (this is the lowest it's been since October 2021). This inflation data has markets believing that inflation has peaked and July's PCE numbers due on 08/26/22 will help to clarify whether the drawdown in inflation was largely due to a big pullback in gas prices. June's PCE numbers came in higher than estimates and, all things considered, the supply chain situation has only improved nominally which brings a bit of uncertainty regarding whether or not PCE will follow in the footsteps of CPI and PPI. Key dates next week: US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 830am EST 08/16; 5th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate at 915am EST 08/16 ; US Retail Sales at 830am EST 08/17.* Price is currently testing $4254 minor resistance (new resistance) after breaking out above $4175 resistance and flipping it to support (two consecutive closes above $4175). Volume remains Moderate and has favored sellers in three of the past four sessions even as Price is going higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $4109, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending down at 67 after being rejected at 68.42 resistance, the next support is at 53. Stochastic is currently crossing over bullish at 91, the next resistance is max top while the next support is at 76. MACD remains bullish for a 48th consecutive session and is currently beginning to form a soft peak at 74, the next support (minor) is at 55 and the next resistance is the ATH at 91.78. ADX is currently trending up at 25 as Price is pushing higher, this is bullish. If Price is able to break out above $4254 minor resistance then the next likely target is a retest of the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$4300 as resistance (which would probably coincide with the 200 MA). However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely formally retest $4175 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes) below $4175.
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPXUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% SPX, 60% Cash . * CRITICAL RESISTANCE WATCH . Equities finished the session relatively flat as markets are sending mixed signals ahead of CPI and PPI data on 08/10 and 08/11. Crypto, Gold, VIX and Oil are trending higher while DXY and Treasuries are down. Palantir reported an earnings miss and revenue beat and forecasted weaker revenue guidance for the second half of 2022; this likely isn't a market moving event but is important because it not only reflects a slowdown in growth stock interest but it hints at a slowdown in economic activity ( due to their significant number of government contract delays ). Key dates this week: COIN earnings 08/09; 4th US Q3 GDP estimate at 10am (EST) 08/10 ; CPI at 830am (EST) 08/10 ; Disney earnings 08/10; and PPI at 830am (EST) 08/11 .* Price continues to retest $4175 major resistance and briefly broke above it in today's session. Volume remains Moderate and fairly balanced between buyers and sellers reaffirming that Price is trading at a critical resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $4060, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 63 after peaking at 66, it is also exhibiting minor Bearish Divergence; the next resistance is at 68 and next support at 53. Stochastic is currently crossing over bearish at 92 as it continues to trend sideways in the 'bullish autobahn'; the next support is at 76. MACD is currently beginning to form a soft peak at 68 and is still technically testing 55 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending up at 22.50 as Price continues its attempt to break above $4175, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will need to close above $4175 major resistance for two consecutive sessions in order to flip it to support; only after this will it be able to retest the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$4300 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $4100 before potentially retesting the uptrend line from 06/16/22 at $4k psychological support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $4175 .
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPXUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 45% SPX, 55% Cash. * JOBS REPORT WATCH . The Employment Situation is released tomorrow (08/05) at 830am (EST) and markets seem to be rallying as if unemployment is going to stay flat or go up insignificantly. If this scenario plays out, it will be interesting considering labor force participation continues to trend down from March , weekly jobless claims went up , there's been a notable increase in layoffs over the past few months and many corporations announced they are going to slow hiring through the end of the year. Equities continue their rally with the S&P posting its biggest bounce of the year (13%) since its June 16th low, reflecting that consumer sentiment regarding inflation, supply chains, FFR and Russia/China is very optimistic heading into 2023. Yesterday, OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 100,000bpd starting in September, compared to the ~600,000bpd increases in July and August this sent the price of Oil back up heading into September; which is likely to result in more inflationary pains for consumers. Taiwanese news agencies have reported that China has been conducting the closest military drills yet and have launched a record number of cyberattacks at Taiwan since Pelosi's visit . Blackrock will be offering crypto to their ~200 institutional investors through Coinbase Prime and Coinbase partnered with Meta to allow for NFTs to be shared on Instagram from Coinbase Wallet ; both of these reports sent COIN up 45% in today's session and probably made Cathie Wood shite her pant$ after selling 1.133m shares at ~$55 last week (Price is currently ~$88). The Atlanta Fed released their third Q3 GDP estimate and it came in higher than the last going from 1.3% to 1.4%. Apparently today the White House joined the WHO in labeling Monkeypox a public health emergency . Key dates: July Jobs Report at 830am (EST) 08/05; July CPI at 830am (EST) 08/10; 4th Atlanta Fed Q3 GDP Estimate 08/10; July PPI at 830am (EST) 08/11.* Price is currently testing $4175 resistance as it awaits the Jobs Report tomorrow morning. Volume remains Moderate (high) and has favored sellers in two of the past three sessions, indicating that $4175 resistance is seeing quite a bit of selling pressure. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at ~$4k (-3% from current Price), this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is trending down slightly at 65 after forming a peak at 66, this is currently exhibiting mild Bearish Divergence from Price; a potential Double Top formation is also forming just below 68 resistance which is something to watch for. Stochastic remains bearish but is currently attempting to cross over bullish at 93; the next support is at 76. MACD remains bullish for the 41st consecutive session and is currently trending up at 65 with no signs of peak formation; it is still technically testing 55 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending up at 22 as price pushes higher, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to break above $4175 resistance then it will likely retest the 200 MA + the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$4300 . However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely retest $4100 before potentially retesting the uptrend line from 06/16/22 at $4k psychological support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $4175.
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPX Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 48% SPX, 52% Cash. * NANCY PELOSI WATCH. S&P Global released their final July US Manufacturing PMI estimate this morning and it came in at 52.2, slightly lower compared to both June's PMI and the consensus estimate of 52.3; this is the lowest it has been since July 2020. The Atlanta Fed released their second GDPNow Q3 estimate today and it came in at +1.3%, down from the initial estimate of +2.1% on 07/29/22. According to Reuters, CNN and 'Taiwanese media', Nancy Pelosi is scheduled to visit Taiwan tomorrow against the wishes of the PRC; though military countermeasures have been promised but are not expected, if this does happen it would surely shake up markets due to the uncertainty regarding how mainland China will respond. Key dates remaining this week: Nancy Pelosi potentially visiting Taiwan tomorrow night (08/02) and speaking to lawmakers and human rights groups on Wednesday (08/03); St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks @ 645pm EST (08/02); Cleveland Fed Loretta Mester speaks 12pm EST (08/03); July BLS Employment Situation @ 830am EST (08/04).* Price is currently facing some selling pressure at ~$4120 as it aims to retest $4175 resistance. Volume is Moderate and on track to favor buyers for a fourth consecutive session if it can close today in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bearish just below the 50 MA at $3900. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 65 after forming a peak at 66 (just below 68.42 resistance); Hidden Bearish Divergence between Price and RSI can be seen from 06/02/22, this is significant due to the potential local Double Top formation. Stochastic remains bullish but is trending down at 98.5 after testing max top for the first time in ten sessions; if it breaks below 93.5 it would be a bearish crossover. MACD remains bullish for the 38th consecutive session and is currently trending up at 49.50 as it approaches 55 minor resistance with no signs of peak formation. ADX is currently trending up at 19 as Price pushes higher, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to push higher then it will likely formally retest $4175 resistance where it may see a bit of selling pressure. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from 06/16/22 as support at ~$4k . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $4175.
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPX Daily bullish. Recommended ratio: 88% SPX, 12% Cash. * CRITICAL RESISTANCE WATCH . The BEA reported June PCE numbers this morning and both came in higher than last month: Core PCE (sans Food and Energy) came in at 4.8% vs 4.7% last month (also had a 4.7% consensus estimate) and PCE Index came in at 6.8% (20 year high) vs 6.3% in the previous two months. Although the move in Core PCE wasn't too significant, it's the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation which leaves the possibility of a 75bps hike in September on the table. BLS reported Q2 ECI numbers and compensation stayed relatively flat while wages/salaries increased and benefits decreased compared to Q1, this is perhaps indicative of businesses cutting perks and profit sharing in exchange for higher wages to lure in talent during an inflation induced consumer slowdown. Compensation, Wages/Salary and Benefits all went down for State and Local Government employees. The U of M Sentiment Survey came in at 51.5, a 3% gain from last month's (50); if next month's is higher, this would imply that consumers are becoming more optimistic about the worst being behind us in 2022. The Atlanta Fed posted their first GDPNow Q3 estimate and to the surprise of many they anticipate a quarter of +2.1% GDP growth. Earnings this quarter are so far proving to be resilient as well and provide additional confidence for investors going into Q3. Equities, Cryptos, Gold and Oil are up while VIX, DXY, and Treasuries are down as more investors begin to transition to risk-on with hopes that the worst is behind us. Though I still think it's premature to assume money markets have bottomed until after September, there is a lot of upside potential here compared to downside.* Price is continuing the FOMC rally and is currently trending up at $4130 as it approaches a test of $4175 resistance (which is a critical resistance). Volume remains Moderate (high) and is on track to favor buyers for a third consecutive session if it can close today in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3862, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up and beginning to form a soft peak at 66 as it approaches 68.42 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently breaking above 33 resistance and trending up at 42.65 with no sign of peak formation, the next resistance is at 55. ADX is currently trending up at 18 as Price is pushing higher, this is bullish. If Price is able to continue up here then it will likely test $4175 major resistance before potentially testing the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$4300 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely test $4k psychological support before potentially retesting $3938 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $4k.
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPX Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% SPX, 45% Cash. * BULL TRAP WATCH . META missed on both earnings and revenue estimates in addition to seeing their first drop in revenue growth; they predict that this trend will continue in Q3 and perhaps the rest of the year. Fed announced a 75bps hike today and Chairman JPow iterated that we aren't in a recession because the labor market continues to be resilient (stagflation), assuring investors that a soft landing is still not out of reach. Interestingly, he also mentioned that "another unusually large rate hike could be appropriate at the next meeting", "path to a soft landing is narrowing", "likely full effects of rate hikes have not been felt yet", and that inflation could get worse going into year end. Somehow, investors are rejoicing as if a bottom is in; but if you look at what happened when the last FOMC statement was released, SPX rallied 2% from $3762 to $3841 to close 06/15 and then fell 5% from $3841 to $3642 to start the next session (06/16). The TA this time around looks a bit different but it's something to be mindful of going in to tomorrow. Key dates remaining this week: 1st Q2 GDP estimate at 830am EST tomorrow (07/28), AAPL and AMZN earnings after-hours tomorrow (07/28), PCE Index report at 830am EST (07/29) and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (07/29). If the first GDP estimate comes in at -1.2% (current GDPNow estimate) or less, it will likely add bullishness to hopes of a 'mild recession' or no 'recession' at all. If PCE numbers (the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation) show that they are declining somehow, the Fed will likely interpret that as inflation starting to wind down and will look to raise FFR by 50bps in September (which money markets would likely perceive as bullish). It's still too premature to call for a bottom but if Price is able to close above $3938 for the rest of the week, there is a good chance that it tests the upper trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$4300 riding into September.* Price is currently breaking out above $3938 minor resistance after bouncing from a very critical support juncture in response to the FOMC statement today. Volume remains Moderate (high) and has been alternating between buyer and seller dominance over the past four sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3809, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending up at 60 (3-month high) with no signs of peak formation after bouncing from 53 support, the next resistance is at 68. Stochastic bounced off 76 support and is currently trending up at 80, if it can break above 81 it would be a bullish crossover. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 20 after breaking above 10.73 support, the next resistance is at 33. ADX is completing a trough and is currently trending up slightly at 16 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to close above $3938 for one more session then the next likely target is a retest of $4175 resistance . However, if Price breaks back down here it will likely retest $3938 minor support before potentially heading lower. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3915 .
$AMZN (Amazon) Stock - AnalysisIn my opinion, Amazon has completed (or is about to complete) a full market Supercycle: Impulse Wave (I) and Corrective Wave (II).
What I would anticipate would be for Amazon to accumulate during the recession and then emerge out of it with Supercycle Impulse Wave (III).
SPX Daily TA BullishSPX Daily bullish. Recommended ratio: 90% SPX, 10% Cash. *Equities, Cryptos, Metals, Oil, Treasuries and EURO are slightly up today as DXY and VIX continue their market correction. Equities continue to go up on fading concerns of a recession paired with more strong earnings ( Tesla beat on both earnings and revenue ) but face a week of anticipated volatility with big tech companies (Meta on Wednesday and Amazon and Apple on Thursday) set to report earnings next week. For context: Netflix just reported a beat on earnings (earnings were lower in Q2 then in Q1) and miss on revenue after completing their second round of layoffs and experiencing its second consecutive quarter of declining new subscribers ; Snapchat also reported a beat on earnings (no change from Q1 and Q2) and miss on revenue while announcing they will slow hiring . This and the worsening energy crisis in Europe that is expected to get worse are pointing to increased volatility next week. Putin suggested that whether or not the Nord Stream returns to full capacity depends on how the Canadians handle the repair of a pipeline turbine and how the Germans handle sanctions regarding transporting the turbine and maintaining the pipeline. The EU continues to contend that Russia had reduced the Nord Stream's capacity by 40% even prior to scheduled maintenance and that punishing the EU economy with a winter energy crisis is part of Russia's plan. The ECB raised their central bank interest rate for the first time in 11 years from 50bps from -0.50% to 0% in response to a June 8.6% inflation reading; with a looming energy crisis the EU may soon learn this may not be enough. Key Dates next week: FOMC Statement release 07/27 at 2pm (EST), Meta Earnings Report 07/27, and Amazon and Apple Earnings Report 07/28.* Price is currently trending up at ~$4k and flipped $3938 resistance to support in today's session while also reclaiming the descending channel from August 2021 at the same level ($3938 resistance-turned-support). Volume remains Moderate (high) and has favored buyers for three consecutive sessions now at this critical price juncture, this is bullish. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3734, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 60 with no signs of peak formation; the next resistance is at 68 but RSI still hasn't technically established 53 as support so a downward correction cannot be ruled out. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently testing max top where it can coast in the 'bullish autobahn' for a few sessions. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 1.60 as it breaks out above -11 resistance, if it can continue the breakout then the next resistance is at 11. ADX is currently trending down slightly and beginning to form a soft trough at 16 as Price pushes higher, this is mildly bullish; if ADX can begin trending up as Price continues going higher, this would be bullish. If Price is able to continue up then the next likely target is a retest of $4175 resistance for the first time since early June 2022. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3900 . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3900.
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPX Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% SPX, 45% Cash. * June Housing Starts came in lower than May (1.591M) at 1.559M and under the consensus estimate of 1.58M, implying that the housing market is starting to cool off as new home buyers appear to be increasingly fearful of a "technical" recession this year. June Building Permits came in fractionally lower than in May (1.695M) at 1.685M and over the consensus estimate of 1.65M, though not as significant of a reduction from the prior month this too is indicative of a housing market cool down in the second half of 2022. Both numbers can still be revised up or down but as it stands now, the demand cool down in the housing market is mildly bullish because it shows that the Fed's hawkish monetary policy is having its intended effect on markets. More clarity will be provided regarding whether or not this points to a recession when the July Jobs report (Employment Situation) is released at 830am (EST) on 08/05/22. Q2 earnings season has gotten off to a bullish start with banks (BOA, Citi) and certain pharmaceutical (J&J) and consumer retail (Hasbro) companies beating estimates but forecasts for the second half of the year remain cloudy. The Senate is scheduled to vote on the CHIPS for America Act today and, with some potential modifications, is expected to pass it by this week or next (if you used the Pelosi indicator congratulations on this one). Russia has apparently been seen restarting gas flows from Russia to Germany (after "scheduled maintenance") via the Nord Stream pipeline but at a reduced capacity; Russia claims that delays in repairs of a turbine sent to Canada are reasons for a 40% cut in capacity but German officials are saying that the turbine is just a replacement part that was supposed to be installed in September. Cryptos, Equities, Oil, Treasuries and the Euro are up today while DXY, VIX and Agriculture are down and Gold is relatively flat. In other news, on Bloomberg TV today, SEC Chair Gary Gensler once again floated the idea of banning payment for order flow and made mention of rampant noncompliance in the crypto industry that will be of chief importance to the SEC in the coming months.* Price is currently testing the 50 MA + lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 as resistance at $3938 minor resistance; additionally, Price closed above the uptrend line from 06/16 (~$3900) which currently gives PA a bullish tilt. Volume remains Moderate and after today's green close has favored buyers in seven of the last ten sessions; this is bullish. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3721, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 55 as it technically tests 53 resistance; the next resistance is at 68. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently testing 76 resistance with no signs of peak formation, the next resistance after that is max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -21 as it approaches a retest of -11 resistance (last time it retest -11 was 06/08); additionally, MACD is on the verge of reestablishing support at the uptrend line from March 2020 (~-35). ADX is currently trending down at 17 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment; if ADX is able to bounce here as Price continues higher, this would be bullish. If Price is able to break above $3938 resistance and turn it to support (it's already breaking above the 50 MA), the next likely target is a retest of $4175 resistance . However, if Price is rejected here then it will likely retest $3707 minor support before potentially heading lower to $3500 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3906.
Twitter vs Musk drama continuing 🐑🤔On Friday Twitter will release it's earnings report so we can expect a lot of volatility that day.
🤔From technical point of view we have trendline that is acting like resistance and we have 32.00 level that is acting as support.
🤔Take a look at the volume at top.
A lot of people entered into long positions when they heard that Musk is buying twitter . Now, that the deal is postponed they are trapped and can be liquidated.
It's also very likely that their stoplosses are hidden below the 32.00 level so be careful as Smart Money might be willing to collect liquidity..
What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌
If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊
P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
Tesla - Earnings in two days! What will happen with priceEvent:
On Wednesday we have earnings report from TSLA. Since it's one of the biggest companies on the stock market and it's market cap is 1/3 of all cryptocurrency market, it will be interesting to see what news will bring us
Technical analysis
From technical Point of View we are trading in a range, shown on the chart with bold lines. On top we have local trendline that keeps the price bearish and will act as additional resistance.
What are the expectations?
As we seen global wellfare downturn and China's lockdown which made TSLA factories pause it's production, it's fair to say that expectations are quite low.
If earnings will be good we will squeeze to the trendline and break throught it, likely with a follow up of breaking out of the range.
What will happen?
If earnings report will be worse than expected, price will plumet and either
1. We see trendline false breakout and then squeeze to the bottom of the range
2. We see squeeze to the bottom of the range straight away.
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPX Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 45% SPX, 55% Cash. * US June Retail Sales was reported this morning and beat the consensus estimate (0.8%) by 0.2% coming in at 1%; compared to last month's retail sales number of -0.1%, it's reasonable to suggest that consumer demand is returning after six consecutive months of shrinkage (Jan 2.7%, Feb 1.7%, March 1.2%, April 0.7%, May -0.1%). One of the primary goals of the Fed raising FFR is to temper economic activity (lessen demand). The Fed announced QT and the possibility of rate hikes in December of 2021, what followed was six months of Retail Sales (consumer demand) shrinkage; the Fed didn't start raising FFR until March 2022 and QT began in June 2022, a testament to how powerful even just words from the Fed can be. This is relevant because these are things to consider when determining how far ahead or behind money markets are, and begs the question once again, have financial markets already priced in a recession? It's hard to say when Federal Reserve Governor Waller says he needs to review Retail Sales and Housing Starts before committing to a more than 75bps rate hike on 07/27 , while St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard says that Core PCE inflation hasn't peaked yet but that there isn't too much difference between 75bps and 100bps on 07/27. Equities, Cryptos, and Commodities (aside from Gold, Copper, Palladium, Wheat and Soy) are up; Treasuries, VIX, DXY down. Housing Starts and Building Permits numbers are to be released at 830am (EST) on 07/19.* Price is currently trending up at $3870 and is on the verge of testing the uptrend line from 06/16 at $3880 as resistance after bouncing at $3707 minor support. Volume is currently Low and on track to favor buyers for a third consecutive session. Parabolic SAR at $3938 minor resistance, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 49 after bouncing at 42, the next resistance is at 53. Stochastic is on the verge of crossing over bullish at 37 after bouncing at 25; the next support is at 18 and resistance at 48. MACD is currently trending up at -31 after bouncing at the uptrend line from March 2020 at -37 as support (which is simultaneously reversing a soft peak formation), the next resistance is at -11. ADX is currently trending sideways at 20 as Price is pushing higher, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX was to start trending up with Price this would be bullish, and if it trends down as Price goes up this would be bearish. If Price is able to break above the uptrend line from 06/16 at $3880 , it will be forced to contend with the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance . However, if Price is rejected here then it will likely retest $3707 minor support before potentially retesting $3508 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3938.
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPX Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 35% SPX, 65% Cash. *Money markets continue struggling to find a bottom amidst high and rising global inflation. CPI report comes out tomorrow (07/13) at 830am (EST) , market consensus is around 8.8% (8.6%-8.9% range); if it comes in on the high end or higher, a sell-off will likely ensue. The next FOMC meeting is on 07/26-07/27 and the next FFR rate hike will be released in the Fed statement at 2pm (EST) on 07/27. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated today that he thinks that a 50-75bps rate hike this month is "reasonable" but cautioned against going too far and "inadvertently breaking something". The San Francisco Federal Reserve published research last month showing that demand is only 1/3 responsible for inflation and that supply chain disruptions are responsible for about 1/2 of inflation; this implies that the Fed can only do so much to ring in inflation and that a lot of it depends on Russia's attack on Ukraine and China's 'Zero Covid Policy'. Until inflation is tamed, it's reasonable to expect for more recessionary fears to mount heading into the second half of the year, especially with the risk of the global geopolitical situation (and therefore supply chains) getting worse.* Price is currently trending down at $3800 after being rejected by the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance and is technically still testing the uptrend line from 06/16/22 as support. Volume remains Moderate and has favored sellers for two consecutive sessions now. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3734, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending down at 44 with no signs of trough formation after forming a Double Top just below 53 resistance, the next support is at 38. Stochastic remains bearish for a second consecutive session and is currently testing 76 support as it falls out of the 'bullish autobahn zone'. MACD remains bullish and is currently forming a soft peak as it tests the uptrend line from March 2020 as resistance a little above -44 resistance. ADX is currently trending sideways and is beginning to form a soft trough at 20 as Price is trending back down, this is mildly bearish; if ADX is able to bounce here as Price continues to break down, this would be bearish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down out of the uptrend line from 06/16/22, the next likely target would be a retest of $3707 minor support (and potentially lower). Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3938.
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPX Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% SPX, 48% Cash. * June CPI report is scheduled for release at 830am on 07/13 and the consensus estimate is 8.8%, if the number comes in higher than that (which many pundits are predicting) then a market sell-off is to be expected. The Euro continues to bleed as it approaches parity with USD for the first time in 20 years as USD and RUB both edge higher. Oil, Gold, Cryptos, Treasuries and Equities are all down as global inflation numbers keep coming in higher; the VIX is also higher. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson resigned; Sri Lanka's economy is currently collapsing due to bankruptcy as their nation endures food and fuel shortages; Iran appears to be pushing forward with uranium enrichment while strengthening Yemeni ties - making Israel, UAE and Saudi Arabia become increasingly fearful and potentially willing to collaborate defensively; Russia is gradually expanding through the Donbas region (with Donetsk being one of the last strongholds to prevent annexation of the Eastern Oblast) while Lithuania enters the fray by blocking trade/transit between Russia and Kaliningrad - Putin also recently stated that the offensive against Ukraine has barely begun; and lastly the situation between China and Taiwan appears to be escalating month to month while mainland China is still dealing with 'Zero-Covid' and recent civil unrest from Chinese bank clients who have had their assets frozen. That said, the bearish catalysts keep piling up as financial markets continue looking for a bottom; so at this point in time it's reasonable to say that financial markets are still at the whim of the Federal Reserve, and because the Fed isn't done moving to a 'restrictive monetary policy' it's therefore reasonable to assume that there is more potential downside. However, it's prudent to remain vigilant because of one question, at what point have financial markets already priced in a recession?* Price is currently testing the uptrend line from 06/16 at ~$3850 after being rejected by the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3925 for a second time in a month. Volume remains Moderate and is currently on track to break a five day streak of buyer dominance if it can close today's session in the red; according to Volume Profile, Price is also currently facing resistance at the third largest supply/demand zone on the chart. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3725, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 46 after being rejected by 52.68 resistance for the second time in a month; the next support is at 38. Stochastic is currently crossing over bearish at 91 as it risks falling out of the 'bullish autobahn zone'; the next support is at 76. MACD remains bullish and is currently testing the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~-$35 as resistance while also still technically testing -44 resistance; if MACD is rejected at the uptrend line and then falls back below -44, this would be very bearish. ADX is beginning to form a soft trough at 19 as Price is seeing some recent selling pressure, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to bounce off of the uptrend line from 06/16 at ~$3850 then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down out of the uptrend line from 06/16 at ~$3850, then it will likely retest $3707 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3815.
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPX Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 69% SPX, 31% Cash. * The US Jobs Report came out this morning and 372,000 jobs were added in June which essentially recovers almost all of the jobs lost due to the pandemic (~23m) , the unemployment rate remained at 3.6% for the fourth month in a row. A technical recession is defined by the combination of declining economic growth and employment ; so according to the textbook we are not yet in one because unemployment is still low and credit is still relatively healthy(?). How reliable the employment data is and how effective the models used to analyze them are arguable but as it stands now, the growing number of layoffs hasn't hit the job market yet. Even though they are both connected, markets seem to have shifted their focus from inflation to Q2 corporate earnings as a means of determining how much of an economic slowdown we are to expect (which would determine if we end 2022 with a federal funds rate above 3.5% - it is currently at 1.58%). Russia continues to avoid Western sanctions and boost their Ruble by fortifying trade routes with Brazil, China, India and South Africa (amongst other countries); Donetsk and Severodonetsk are the last two major Ukrainian strongholds defending against a total annexation of the Donbas region (Southeastern oblasts) - and Russia likely won't stop there; and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterated today at the G20 Summit (before storming out) that increased sanctions are viewed as declarations of economic war.* Price is currently pushing higher at ~$3900 as it approaches the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance. Volume remains Moderate and is currently on track to favor buyers for a fifth consecutive session if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3714, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 52 as it tests 52.68 resistance with a soft peak beginning to form. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 98 as it approaches a test of max top where it can potentially coast in the "bullish autobahn zone" for some time. MACD remains bullish and is currently testing the uptrend line from March 2020 at -44 resistance, this is a critical resistance area. ADX continues trending down at 20 as Price pushes higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment; if ADX bounces as Price continues higher, this would be bullish. If Price is able to continue up here then it will likely face a bit more resistance at the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $3706 minor support before potentially heading lower to test $3508 support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3815.
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPX Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 63% SPX, 37% Cash. * FOMC minutes were released at 2pm (EST) today and the main takeaways were: the Fed is committed to price stability and maximum employment and will take on a even more restrictive stance if inflation isn't tamed; they are most likely going to raise 75bps unless CPI comes in lower than expected or Russia/Ukraine situation improves, in this case they may raise 50; and that housing, job and credit markets are healthy as of May and the Fed thinks GDP will bounce back in Q2 - very curious to see how declining new home sales, growing gas and food prices, more layoffs and higher credit card usage will reflect on this perspective come July 27th. The current GDPnow estimate for Q2 GDP is -2.1% , and the next estimate is due tomorrow at 830am (EST). Gold + Oil + VIX + Euro are down and Equities + Treasuries + Cryptos + USD are up, markets seem to be pricing in a recession at this point. I guess it's only a real recession if the Fed says it is though.* Price is currently trending up at $3845 and forming a Bear Flag after bouncing from $3780; the next resistance is the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance and the next support (minor) is at $3707. Volume remains Moderate and has favored buyers for the past three sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3706, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 46, the next resistance is at 53 and support at 38. Stochastic remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 84 as it attempts to flip 76 resistance to support on its way to testing to max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -56 as it slowly approaches -44 resistance, the next support (minor) is at -76. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 22 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to continue up here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3938 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $3707 minor support before potentially heading lower to test $3508 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3780.