Take Two | TTWO & GTA VI. Part IITakeTwo Interactive is preparing for the biggest catalyst in the company's history with the release of GTA 6. Although no definitive timetable has been set for GTA 6, the game will almost certainly release in 2024 or 2025 at the latest given all the information that has come out. Moreover, TTWO itself has started opening up about GTA 6, which is a hint that an announcement is near. The impact that GTA 6 will have on TTWO cannot be understated, given how much resources have been spent developing GTA 6 and the growing consumer frenzy surrounding the title.TTWO could see more upward momentum as GTA 6's release closes in.
GTA 6 is by far the most anticipated video game in the industry's history. The game is so hyped, in fact, that individuals have crashed televised events purely to protest for the release of GTA 6. Even Starfield, which is an incredibly hyped game in its own right, had it Gamescon presentation disrupted by a fan calling for GTA 6. GTA 6 has not even been announced yet, and it seems to have fully captured the attention of the gaming world.
This level of organic hype is an incredibly positive sign for TTWO and its investors. Despite the fact that GTA 5 had nowhere near the hype as GTA 6 at similar stages in their development, GTA 5 still managed to become the best-selling triple A game ever made, with ~185 million units sold. This is a testament to GTA 6's potential, both on a commercial and even cultural standpoint.
If GTA 6 manages to meet or exceed consumer expectations, TTWO should see its shares surge. Given the hysteria surrounding the title, positive reviews will only supercharge demand as consumers will likely find any reason to get their hands on the game. Considering the amount of resources TTWO is rumored to be spending on developing GTA 6, coupled with Rockstar's track record of producing masterpieces, there is very little chance that GTA 6 disappoints.
While GTA is TTWO's most important IP, the company also boasts a strong lineup beyond GTA. In fact, some of its other franchises are bestsellers in their own right. Red Dead Redemption, for instance, has sold more than 55 million units and continues to sell at a solid pace despite the game being nearly 5 years old. Red Dead Redemption has also been critically praised as one of the best triple A games ever made.
TTWO currently has one of its most robust product pipelines in the history of the company across all of its studios. The company has even diversified into mobile gaming, which is proving to be an increasingly large segment in the gaming industry. In fact, TTWO made a huge acquisition in Zynga for a whopping $12.7 billion. Zynga is one of the largest mobile gaming studios in the world and owns massively popular IPs like FarmVille.
Despite TTWO's growing pipeline, the company is still relatively top-heavy compared to peers like EA (EA) or Activision Blizzard (ATVI). This means that underperformance for its flagship franchises, especially GTA, will almost certainly cause the company's value to plummet. So much of TTWO's future prospects are dependent upon the success of GTA 6, especially considering how much revenue the game is expected to pull in.
To gain some perspective on how important the GTA franchise is for TTWO, GTA has generated over $8 billion in revenue since GTA 5's release in 2013. TTWO itself is only worth ~$23 billion. GTA online, for instance, still contributes heavily to the company's recurring revenue and bookings, which came in at $1.2 billion in its most recent quarter.
TTWO has a huge opportunity with GTA 6. The game has garnered unprecedented hype that is starting to grow to a fever pitch. If TTWO delivers a solid sequel, GTA 6 could potentially deliver revenues upwards of ~$20 billion over the next decade, given the revenue trajectory of GTA sequels. At TTWO's current valuation of $23 billion, the company has far more upside, given the potential of GTA 6 and the company's growing pipeline of popular titles.
