DOW JONES Strong bullish leg within a Bullish Megaphone.Dow Jones (DJI) gave us a strong bottom buy signal 8 days ago (see chart below):
On today's idea we look at the 1H time-frame, which offers a buy opportunity for quick 1-2 day profit as the index is on a strong bullish leg within a newly formed Bullish Megaphone. Based on the 1H RSI which turned overbought and the 1H MACD which just formed a Bearish Cross, this sequence resembles the August 28 - 31 fractal and we could be on a similar position as on August 30.
That was the final consolidation before the bullish leg made its peak on Resistance 1 (35100). Due to the Bullish Megaphone, this time it can go a little higher, so today's buy position targets 35150.
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Stockindex
S&P500 Short-term buy within the weekly Channel Up.The S&P500 (SPX) hit today the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since September 06, which was before the current 5-day Channel Up pattern. So far it delivers an initial rejection, whose pull-back can extend even below the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Based on the 1H RSI though, which is posting a sequence similar to September 07 - 08, we are close to the reversal point, making it already a buy opportunity. You can confirm that after the price closes a candle above the 1H MA200. Regardless, our target is at the end of a +1.27% increase and the top of the Channel Up at 4500.
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NASDAQ: This is the buy signal you're looking for.Nasdaq is on a neutral 1D technical timeframe (RSI = 54.797, MACD = 35.170, ADX = 44.268) as it remains below the LH trendline within the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200. Only yesterday did it make a HL at the bottom of the short term Channel Up. We don't know if that will be enough to sustain this bullish trend but the price managed to close over the 4H MA100 again (holding since August 29th).
However if the price closes above the LH trendline it will confirm the bullish trend much like it did on August 23rd. The 4H is on a Bullish Cross so we will be ready to buy this breakout. The target will be the top of the Channel Up at a +5.56% maximum extension (TP = 16,000).
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S&P500: Formed new bottom. Expecting a rise.The S&P500 index has hit the 0.382 Fibonacci level after a 4H Golden Cross that turned the 4H technical outlook bullish (RSI = 59.782, MACD = 9.210, ADX = 36.280). As mentioned before, this is the same fractal of December 2022 to January 2023. Holding the 0.382 was key to sustaining a rise to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. We remain bullish on S&P500, targeting the current 1.236 Fibonacci (TP = 4,670).
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DAX Rebounding on this Support.DAX / Germany 40 is technically stuck inside the 1day MA200 (support) and 1day MA50 (resistance).
Friday's bullish reversal to close the 1day candle flat, paved the wave for today's green candle.
Following August's 18th Double Bottom that started the Rising Support (that has closed all candles over it), we expect a continuation of this rise, at least on the short term.
Buy and target 16045, which is a little under Resistance A.
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DOW JONES: The Channel bottomed. Strong buy opportunity.Dow Jones is once more near the HL of the five month Channel Up. The neutral 1D technical outlook (RSI = 46.013, MACD = -68.570, ADX = 21.330) further suggests that this is a low risk buy opportunity. The HL on the 1D RSI is consistent with the trendlines of May 31st and March 22nd all of whom where bottoms. As long as the 1D MA100 holds, we will be on a long position aiming at a +6 rise in total (TP = 36,000).
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DAX: Low risk buy here but exit below the 1D MA200.DAX got rejected on the 1D MA50 and pulled back to the bottom of the Channel Up again. The 1D technical outlook turned bearish (RSI = 43.037, MACD = -52.700, ADX = 29.821) a closing under the 1D MA200 confirms a long term bearish reversal. Until that happens, we will be bullish on this bottom structure, targeting R1 (TP = 16,530).
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NASDAQ This 4hour Golden Cross is the buy signal you needNASDAQ / US100 finished forming a Golden Cross on the 4hour time frame yesterday, the first such pattern since March 22nd.
This is a standard technical bullish signal and as long as the 1day RSI stays over its MA, you can remain bullish.
Target 16250, which is the Fibonacci 1.236 extension.
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DAX 4hour Golden Cross targeting 16550DAX formed today a Golde Cross on the 4hour time frame for the first time since June 7th.
The last 3 4hour Golden Crosses inside the large Channel Up pattern have been buy signals that targeted a little under Fibonacci 1.236.
The 4hour RSI is also having a consolidation similar to those previous fractals.
Buy now and target 16550.
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US30: Price levels and pattern analysis post-FMOCToday's focus: US30
Pattern – Ascending Triangle, low rejection, Resistance
Possible targets – 35,260 - 33,255
Support – 33,790
Resistance – 34,310
Today we have looked at the US30 after this morning’s FOMC. The Fed held rates but commented that we could see two more rises this year.
With price bouncing back after testing lower, could we see a new shot at resistance, or will we see sellers make a new test lower, breaking the current uptrend? If the trend is broken, could this set up a new move back to test the long-term pattern base?
On the other side, could buyers make a new move to test or break key resistance? With rate raises back on the agenda will this maintain the current key resistance and hold price in its overall pattern?
Good trading.
DAX potential pull-back.DAX had an excellent run since our buy signal (see chart below) more than two months ago (March 21) but after it broke above the former All Time High (ATH) on May 19, it has formed a top and is pulling back:
As long as the price is closing the 1D candle above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it will be a buy opportunity targeting the top of the (dotted) Channel Up at 16600. If however it breaks below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) we will quick sell towards the Channel's bottom at 15350 and add a new buy there. In either case, the target remains intact at 16600.
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S&P500 Rising Wedge's short-term pull-back to the 1D MA50The S&P500 index (SPX) gave us the expected pull-back and buy entry within the Rising Wedge as per our last week analysis (chart below):
The long-term structure is a Channel Up, so plan your trades in case of a Rising Wedge break-out. On the short-term, we expect the price to pull-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the bottom of the Rising Wedge at 4140. As long as the pattern holds, buy and target the top at 4250. If the top of the Wedge breaks, target 4295m just shy off the long-term Resistance of 4327 (August 15 2022 High).
We will sell on the medium-term only if the price breaks below Support Zone 1 and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), above Support Zone 2 and at the bottom of the long-term Channel Up. The 1D RSI Triangle pattern can give an early signal with regards to the direction in case of a break-out.
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NIFTY poised to test its All Time High this week.The Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) is extending the long-term Channel Up pattern that started after the March 20 2023 Low, when the 16750 Support held. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting for exactly 2 months and this week the technical Higher High and test of the 18890 Resistance (which is the All Time High) should be materialized.
As you see, the similarities between the current Channel Up and that of October - November 2022 as strong. It appears that the price is at the final stage (curve pattern), before the final rally. The 4H RSI break-out above the Lower Highs is another strong resemblance. This trend is invalidated if the price breaks below the 4H MA200 (target the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Our target is 18800 for safety, slightly below the Resistance just like the March 20 2023 Low was slightly above the Support.
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How to Day Trade or Swing Trade S&P500 Part 2Hey Traders,
So this is part 2 of the previous strategy I talked about with the stock indexes. I used to trade the Forex, Commodities, Crypto and other markets. But in my opinion these stock indexes are the best markets of the all to trade because they move daily with strong volume and give you multiple trading opportunites. So lets look at now how we can truly fine tune this strategy and turn it into a great method. In the future I believe I will only focus on trading the stock indexes S&P500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
US30 starting to stall at resistance. Hi traders, this is just a general observation, not a trade idea. Tonight we noticed that the US30 has started to fade at a previous level of resistance. With the Core PCE to come, could an expected jump to the upside add to the small seller momentum we are starting to see?
This week we have seen some decent buying so far, but could today’s action be a small hint at profit-taking starting to come in? If we see new buyer demand appear and price makes a new high today, then this idea could be canceled.
If we do see a pullback today and it remains at or above the trendline and moving average, this could set up a possible buy idea next week if buyer momentum continues.
Have a great weekend and good trading.
EUROSTOXX has incredible upside potential.An often overlooked index, the EURSTOXX has been on a rising 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) since late January. This is a major Bull rally continuation signal as it matches the pattern of four prior uptrends of the past 10 years. The 1W RSI has turned neutral and during Bull Cycles, this is always a strong signal to enter. We are expecting a peak on this rally close to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
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NASDAQ: Replicating the January bottom. Long term target at 13,4Nasdaq followed our short term trading plan to perfection and hit both our targets (see bottom chart). Now with the 1D time frame on neutral technicals (RSI = 51.600, MACD = 59.860, ADX = 20.760) but the RSI on a HL trend line, this draws comparison with the January bottom formation.
The 1D Golden Cross that will be completed tomorrow and will be the first since May 2020, can signal the start of a rally similar to January's that topped on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. Based on that we are long and have a TP at 13,400.
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DAX respecting the 4hour MA200DAX is staging a rebound coming close to the 4hour MA50 yesterday (has been untouched since January 4th). This is the normal technical reaction we expected on such an important Support Cluster (as the dotted line from the October 2nd bottom was also there) and was a short-term buy.
Maintain a tight SL though as a cross under it renders the price extremely bearish on the medium term that will target the 1day MA50.
A -6.60% repeat of December 14th - 16th gives a 14610 estimate. 4hour RSI still far from the buy opportunity when being oversold.
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DOW JONES: Testing the 4H MA200 for the 1st time in 3 weeksDow Jones broke today the 33,460 - 33,500 Resistance Zone that was intact since December 22nd. At the moment it is attempting a test of the 4H MA200, the first since December 15th. Trading within a Channel Up and with 4H technicals bullish (RSI = 62.540, MACD = 15.660, ADX = 24.447) while the 1D MACD is about to make a Bullish Cross, we expect a strong bullish trend if the price breaks and closes above the 4H MA200, with 34,900 (December 13th Resistance) the Target. Preferably we would like to see a break above the Channel Up as well.
A break below the Channel Up will be a short-term sell opportunity with the 1D MA200 as the target, while further break below it, will target the 31,710 Support (November 3rd).
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S&P500: Bearish but the 1D MA50 can reverse the courseThe S&P500 index has been trading within a Channel Down pattern on the 1D time-frame ever since the December 1st rejection on the Lower Highs Resistance (Jan 4th) and the Dec 13th rejection on the 1W MA50.
With the 1D technicals neutral (RSI = 50.198, MACD = -15.660, ADX = 19.596), this is technically the level to sell as the price is at the top of the Channel Down. As long as it holds, our target is 3,710, which is marginally above the 3,695 Support of the Nov 3rd 2022 low.
A break above the 1D MA50 reverses the bearish trend and we'll target the 1D MA200 and the Lower Highs (Jan 4th) Resistance again. This scenario is supported by the Higher High (HH) on the 1D RSI (which is a bullish divergence also seen in early October and May 2022) and the 1D MACD which just formed a Bullish Cross, also consistent with the aforementioned market Lows.
Closing a candle above the 1W MA50 would restore the long-term bullish trend and we will take that break-out to target the 4,330 Resistance (Aug 16th 2022 High).
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