Stockindex
FTSE on the rise.. Short back down to the strong support.From a Pro FTSE Stock Index trader..
Looking for the FTSE to come back to the Support + Mixture of MA's and we will look long again. For now, It is short back down to this area, where we will then flip long.
Lets get it!
LongThe Nasdaq 100 is a beast and will allow you to gain financial freedom if you can trade and keep risk management along the way. Recent strong tech earning are allowing the upside movement of this prolific stock index. The correlation from the SP 500 has not been strong lately as Nasdaq 100 has recently shown that it has had an independent route in short-term trends. The overall trends will be correlated, but this information is essential for day traders. Trend trading is the most profitable way to gain profits using technical analysis.
NASDAQ on 1D Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price is at the bottom of the Channel Up, below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line, which has accurately given a long-term buy signal 3 times since November 2020) and the 1D CCI is on Higher Lows at its bottom.
Target: Short-term 15100 (the 1D MA50), medium-term 15700 (Resistance and All Time High) and long-term 16350 (the 1.5 Fibonacci extension).
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DOW JONES near the 1D MA200/ first time since October 2020!Dow Jones is trading within a Channel Up that has recently broken below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). This is the first time in two months that is giving the first strong buy signals:
* The RSI is near the 30.000 level which has marked price bottoms on June 18 2021, October 29 2020 (in the post COVID crash era).
* The price is approaching the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with the last contact dating back to October 30 2020 (the line held and issued an aggressive rally post US-elections).
* The pattern resembles the June - October 2020 Channel Up. The price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), 1D MA100 and 1D MA200 in the same order and manner.
Naturally the market is waiting for Fed's confirmation tomorrow before it engages aggressively on high volume but this is the time technically to start considering a buy entry again. Based on the Fibonacci extension model, a target of 35900 seems very plausible.
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NASDAQ Start looking for a buy near the 1D MA100 after the FedTwo weeks ago NDX formed a peak formation at the top of the multi-month Channel Up (Higher Highs) and I posted the following chart calling for a strong correction:
As you see that correction is currently underway and having broken below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is looking for the patterns strongest Support, the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) which has been the most optimal buy level since April 2020.
In fact more recently (March and May), the index rebounds shortly after it breaks marginally below the 1D MA100. With the Fed meeting tomorrow being crucial for the market as it either ensures the continuation of very low rate policy (bullish) or signals a start to raising rates (bearish), expect high volatility that may cross the 1D MA100 momentarily on a wick and recover quickly. If the peak I called two weeks ago is the (A) leg, then we are about to complete (B) which on a 1 year basis has been the best buy entry.
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DAX Which Channel will prevail?DAX is ahead of critical crossroads as the long-term Channel Up (blue) that was formed after the November 2020 U.S. elections is on its last leg (d) before the aggressive rally that last time (March-April) led to leg (e).
If this pattern is not repeated, then there is a new Channel Up (orange) that may continue this uptrend but in a more controlled, less aggressive manner. I believe that the signal for this will be a closing below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
Which Channel Up do you think will prevail?
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Why the S&P500 Micro Futures is one of the best markets to trade Hey Traders so today I wanted to show you a great market to consider trading the S&P500 Micro Futures. I think it is one of the easiest markets to learn vs the Forex and others. It offers great leverage and really good risk vs reward. Of course futures are different from stocks, crypto and forex. The are considered high risk because of the volatility and leverage. But definitely I think they are a good asset class to consider adding to every traders portfolio with the right risk management. Plus this market is a great way to start capturing all the great gains that the stock market has had in the last 10 years. As long as the bull market continues I think this market will remain strong.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
S&P 500 Hits New All TIme High After Bouncing at Support!Hi guys, this is OG back with another market update. If you find value in my work, please do like, share, and comment. And also feel free to share your ideas and technical analysis in the comments below.
In my last post on the S&P 500 (in related ideas below), I noted that the S&P500 index was testing trendline support after failing to make a new All Time High and how this fall coincided with Bitcoin's fall in price over the past week. In that post, the S&P500 was exactly at trendline support, and I mentioned that the next daily close would be very important in determining the next move in the stock markets, and therefore other assets such as Bitcoin, namely that if we closed below the trendline it would be bearish and if we had a bullish reversal pattern, it would be bullish.
The following daily close was a bullish engulfing candle, which showed that the trendline still held as support. Indeed, after the bullish engulfing candle, the S&P500 index had a slight rally so far and put in a new all time high, and is still putting in new alltimehighs as of time of writing this post. Indeed, Bitcoin has followed this move up in the past couple of days, reaching as high as 35.5K after bottoming at 28.8K.
We are seeing a slight divergence between the S&P500 and Bitcoin at the moment, however, as while the S&P500 is creating new alltimehighs, Bitcoin has been slightly retracing, trading at 32.8K after topping out at 35.5K. Let's monitor to see if the the correlation between the two will again bring the two back together, with either S&P500 dropping or Bitcoin rallying to match S&P500's bullishness, OR if the two will continue to diverge with S&P500 rallying while Bitcoin slides. I will keep monitoring and updating as the market unfolds.
Check out my daily videos for more in-depth technical analysis and trade setups for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoins.
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DOW JONES touched the 1D MA50. Time to rebound?Dow Jones is trading within a wide Channel Up on the 1D time-frame since the November U.S. elections break-out. Applying the Fibonacci Channel levels really gives this a better perspective.
Yesterday the price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As you see every contact within the 1D MA50 since January has been a buy opportunity. So far even when the 1D MA50 breaks slightly, the price never goes below the Ichimoku Cloud. Yesterday we had a hit both on the 1D MA50 and the Ichimoku. I believe that should be enough to initiate a rebound within the current phase of the Channel Up.
The question is, will that be like the March 04 rebound which broke above that Channel and took the index to the higher Fibonacci levels? What do you think?
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S&P500 entering a Golden Decade and no one is paying attentionThis is S&P on the log scale of the 1M (monthly) time-frame. Since the Great Depression, the index has entered a Channel Up that never stopped/ broke to the downside to this date. In particular, I have distinguished this pattern into 3 key landmarks:
1) When the price broke below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) but made a bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up (the end of a Bull Cycle).
2) Then it crashed violently in a day or a few days (Black Monday-October 1987 and COVID crash-March 2020) and hit the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line).
3) The Hyper Cycle Peak just below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level (end of the DotCom Bubble).
As you see the two eras are identical. And what is more interesting is that the 1M MA50 crashes seem to serve as the middle of each Hyper Cycle making the start - middle with the middle - end fairly symmetrical. At least that appears to be the case for 1974 - 1987 (roughly 4750 days) and 1987 - 2000 (roughly 4700 days). So if we are currently in an identical Hyper Cycle with the March 2020 COVID crash serving as its middle, then then next peak near the 1.5 Fibonacci extension should be roughly as long as the time from the bottom of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis in February 2009 until the COVID crash in March 2020, i.e. 4000 days. That puts the target for S&P500 around 12000 by mid 2031! See also how identical the RSI action is between the two eras as well as the bottom levels on both the 1M MA200 crashes and the 1M MA50 crashes.
So if the above data are true and the pattern replicates the former Hyper Cycle, it means that we've just started the 2nd part of it, which is also the most aggressive. This time around the index is closer to the top of the Channel Up than it was after the 1987 crash, which means that if it breaks, there is a chance to approach the 1.5 Fibonacci extension even quicker. Will that mean that we will be looking for the next peak above the 1.5 Fib and closer to the 2.0 Fib? Who knows? But I firmly believe that (especially after the trillion dollar rescue packages and the near zero interest rates globally that seem to be here to stay) we have a new Golden Decade ahead of us for the stock markets and no-one seems to be paying attention as most are focused on overvaluations expecting a new crash.
What do you think? Contrary to popular belief, is this the time to go heavy on stocks for one decade and happily retire in the process? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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DOW JONES This fractal shows $35500 long-termPattern: Fibonacci Channel on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the index seems to be replicating the February/ March 2021 fractal. Every pull-back on each Resistance (R) is a buy opportunity.
Target: $35100 (Resistance (R)2) short-term and $35500 (the 1.382 Fibonacci extension) long-term.
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BTC and S&P How accurate is "Sell in May and go away"?Tomorrow is the last day of the April. Every year at the start of May investing and trading forums are flooded with the old street saying of "Sell in May and go away", especially from sellers who are already deep into short positions. But how accurate is this saying for Bitcoin and S&P500 in particular.
A simple display of both on the monthly (1M candle) chart quickly provides the answer:
* Bitcoin has dropped either on or right after May 3 times, while it rose 7 times since May 2011.
* S&P500 has dropped either on or right after May 3 times, while it rose 9 times since May 2009.
It becomes easily obvious that the "Sell in May and go away" saying is just a "myth". Do not get stuck trading entirely based on this. Both BTC and S&P simply follow their greater cyclical trend phases even during Mays and the argument that big institutions, fund managers, and/ or investors sell everything in May and go for vacation is dangerous.
For S&P in particular there hasn't been a drop on or right after May since 2015! And the fact that since the 2008 Subprime mortgage crisis we only had 3 bearish May candles, completely smashes the argument.
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FTSE100 Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price is rising following a (near) Higher Low on the pattern.
Target: 7120 (the 1.382 Fibonacci extension).
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S&P500 Bearish Signals forming on 4HPattern: Bullish Megaphone.
Signal: Sell as the MACD made a Bearish Cross after the (orange) uptrend Channel broke sideways, in a move similar to February 10 and March 12.
Target: 3970 (below the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) as per the previous similar fractals). If the 4H MACD breaks -15.00 then you may extend the selling as low as the MACD Support Zone or just above the 1D MA100 (yellow trend-line).
On the longer-term the trend remains bullish until the greater pattern is invalidated and as suggested by the most recent S&P500 signal shown below, it is safer to buy those Megaphone 4H MA100 pull-backs:
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NASDAQ may be about to shoot up. But is the future bright?That's of course the million dollar question and on this post is based on a fractal analysis with the 1998 - 2000 sequence.
As you see today Nasdaq is currently trading within a Channel Up up and down the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) similar to what it did in 1999. Both Channels formed after a very aggressive rise, which took place after a lengthy yearly period of extreme market volatility (1, 2, 3, 4) where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) got breached repeatedly. The 1W MA200 though (green dotted line) remained intact, which is what maintained the long-term bullish trend of the Bull Cycle. In late 1999 after the Channel Up broke upwards, an equally aggressive rise took place that formed the peak of the Bull Cycle and the historic pop of the Dotcom Bubble. The Bear Cycle started and in early 2001 the 1W MA200 broke.
It goes without saying that this is a very simplistic fractal comparison and can't be an investment strategy on its own, but is fundamental/ news framework that led to the 2000 Dotcom bubble much different from today's aggressive economic stimulus?
Let's make an interesting discussion down below!
Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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S&P500 Strong MA Support Zone belowThe 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) with the 1D MA50 (green dots) have recently provided rebounds on S&P500 more often than not, acting as a Support Zone.
As you see on the chart those happen to be also on key horizontal Support levels (3900 - 3860). With the 4H RSI making contact with its parabolic line, it is possible that the index is nearing a Support that will provide at least a short-term rebound. Use the Higher Highs line for a potential Target.
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S&P500 Bullish Break-outPattern: Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price broke above the inner Lower Highs trend-line and is turning the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) into Support. The RSI is on a Bullish Divergence.
Target: 4,040 long-term (the 1.382 Fibonacci extension ).
Previous S&P signal:
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S&P500 A buy Signal from the RSI and MACDPattern: Fibonacci Channel on 4H.
Signal: Buy as every time the MACD made a Bullish Cross, while the RSI had already hit its 4 month Support Zone, the index rose and made a new High. Last confirmation will be to close one session above the 4H MA50, which has previously been a mid-term Resistance within that Channel prior to a new High.
Target: 4000 (just below the 1.382 Fibonacci extension which has been an accurate metric of the next Higher High since December).
Most recent S&P500 signal:
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