DAX Bullish as long as the 1D MA200 holds.DAX (DE40) has been neutral on the 1D time-frame, trading sideways within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) since August 03. We can see two clear Support and Resistance Zones. Today the price is approaching once more the 1D MA200, following yesterday's Fed Rate Decision, so it is a buy opportunity again. Target the bottom of the Resistance Zone at 16000.
Apart from that, the Fibonacci retracement levels since the July 31 High, make solid Supports and Resistances, with the 0.5 Fib currently being one.
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Stockindexsignals
S&P500 Ascending Triangle giving a bottom buy signal.The S&P500 index (SPX) gave us last week an accurate quick buy signal (see chart below) but then got sold-off to a new 3-week Low:
The price hit yesterday during that sell-off the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Ascending Triangle pattern that is in place since the August 04 High (which created its 4540 top/ Resistance). This is a short-term buy signal and will be confirmed if the 4H MACD completes the emerging Bullish Cross.
The immediate Resistance is the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) - 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) Zone and the short-term is the Lower Highs trend-line since the September 01 High. That will be our target, aiming at a +1.77% rise (proportionally less than the previous) at 4490.
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DOW JONES Strong bullish leg within a Bullish Megaphone.Dow Jones (DJI) gave us a strong bottom buy signal 8 days ago (see chart below):
On today's idea we look at the 1H time-frame, which offers a buy opportunity for quick 1-2 day profit as the index is on a strong bullish leg within a newly formed Bullish Megaphone. Based on the 1H RSI which turned overbought and the 1H MACD which just formed a Bearish Cross, this sequence resembles the August 28 - 31 fractal and we could be on a similar position as on August 30.
That was the final consolidation before the bullish leg made its peak on Resistance 1 (35100). Due to the Bullish Megaphone, this time it can go a little higher, so today's buy position targets 35150.
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S&P500 Short-term buy within the weekly Channel Up.The S&P500 (SPX) hit today the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since September 06, which was before the current 5-day Channel Up pattern. So far it delivers an initial rejection, whose pull-back can extend even below the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Based on the 1H RSI though, which is posting a sequence similar to September 07 - 08, we are close to the reversal point, making it already a buy opportunity. You can confirm that after the price closes a candle above the 1H MA200. Regardless, our target is at the end of a +1.27% increase and the top of the Channel Up at 4500.
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DOW JONES Last buy opportunity on the 1D MA50.Dow Jones (DJI) got rejected on August 31 on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and that made the price pull-back. We are now close to the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) again, which is where the initial rebound started on August 25, exactly at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up.
This is the final buy opportunity on this pattern, as any closing below it would be a pattern invalidation and the trend would change to bearish on the long-term. Key to this, is the formation of a 4H Golden Cross, which could be only 4-5 days away. The last such formation was on June 09 and as with the one that preceded that, it will be a bullish signal.
We will wait for either a new 1D MA50 test or a completed 4H Golden Cross in order to buy with the lowest risk possible. Target 1 will be 36000 and Target 2 36900 (just below the All Time High).
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S&P500 Rising Wedge's short-term pull-back to the 1D MA50The S&P500 index (SPX) gave us the expected pull-back and buy entry within the Rising Wedge as per our last week analysis (chart below):
The long-term structure is a Channel Up, so plan your trades in case of a Rising Wedge break-out. On the short-term, we expect the price to pull-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the bottom of the Rising Wedge at 4140. As long as the pattern holds, buy and target the top at 4250. If the top of the Wedge breaks, target 4295m just shy off the long-term Resistance of 4327 (August 15 2022 High).
We will sell on the medium-term only if the price breaks below Support Zone 1 and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), above Support Zone 2 and at the bottom of the long-term Channel Up. The 1D RSI Triangle pattern can give an early signal with regards to the direction in case of a break-out.
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NIFTY poised to test its All Time High this week.The Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) is extending the long-term Channel Up pattern that started after the March 20 2023 Low, when the 16750 Support held. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting for exactly 2 months and this week the technical Higher High and test of the 18890 Resistance (which is the All Time High) should be materialized.
As you see, the similarities between the current Channel Up and that of October - November 2022 as strong. It appears that the price is at the final stage (curve pattern), before the final rally. The 4H RSI break-out above the Lower Highs is another strong resemblance. This trend is invalidated if the price breaks below the 4H MA200 (target the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Our target is 18800 for safety, slightly below the Resistance just like the March 20 2023 Low was slightly above the Support.
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NASDAQ One last low is possible before new ATHNasdaq has been particularly week this month as yesterday's rejection saw the price back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again and near the December 03 low. We do remain inside a year-long Channel Up but the very structure of this pattern allows for one final Lower Low before making a bottom.
As you see on the chart, every time NDX broke the last Low of the previous uptrend (bold black line), the price dropped either around -8.50% or -12.00%, while the RSI bottomed within the 35.000 - 30.000 Support Zone. Neither of that has happened yet and technically when either of those happens first, then that would be a good estimate for a bottom on Nasdaq.
A -8.50% pull-back from the top would place the price at around 15,350 while a -12.00% at around 14,750. The latter however would mean a break below both the Channel Up and the Higher Lows trend-line that is holding since November 02 2020, while at the same time making a direct hit on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Thus I consider it far less likely. For a long-term trader, even the fact that we are currently around the 1D MA50, translates into a good buy opportunity.
Our Target on a 1.5 - 2.0 months horizon is 17600 which is slightly below the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, a standard target for NDX after such a bottom.
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DOW JONES This fractal shows $35500 long-termPattern: Fibonacci Channel on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the index seems to be replicating the February/ March 2021 fractal. Every pull-back on each Resistance (R) is a buy opportunity.
Target: $35100 (Resistance (R)2) short-term and $35500 (the 1.382 Fibonacci extension) long-term.
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S&P Trading PlanPattern: Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Sell as the price is close to the Higher Highs trend-line of the pattern with the MACD flat.
Target: 3320 and if 3310 breaks, extension to 3270.
Most recent S&P trade:
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S&P Trading PlanPattern: Bullish Megaphone
Signal: (A) Buy as long as the 3200 Support holds, (B) Bearish if it breaks.
Target: (A) 3325 (just below the Higher Highs trend-line), (B) 3150 (just above the Higher Lows trend-line).
Most recent signal:
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(FR40) Index to hit 4600 EUR Pretty SoonFirst off, please don't take anything I say seriously or as financial advice. As always, this is on opinion based basis and not meant to be taken seriously. That being said, let me get into my opinion. FR40 which is a French stock index for the Euronext Paris, have been hit pretty significantly as a result of Covid19 after being on a bullish recovery for almost a year prior. Now, as the markets are weighting in and people are starting to "panic sell less", I believe it is about to pass the 4600 euro threshold and likely to go on a stable price recovery trend. The 4600 EUR threshold crossing is likely within a week or so at most, but the recovery process is more of a long afterwards.
DOW JONES Signs of the Great Depression?This is a DJI comparison of the Great Depression and the phase that preceded it against the current COVID sell-off and the phase since the DotCom bubble that led to it.
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As you see both time phases are Megaphone patterns. Both started on high volatility (A,B,C,D) while the Megaphone was emerging and after testing the Higher High trend line for the longest time of the phase (E), the price broke above it making an over-extension (F). This is usually where most retail and other dumb money are trapped during recessions. What followed (F) during the Great Depression was of course a complete and lengthy collapse of the system, the worst recession in history. Also look how harmonically the 1M MA100 is moving on both patterns.
Will history repeat itself? I want to know your opinion about it.
*For the record the purpose of this comparison is not to spread panic, I will leave it to the mainstream media to do so. But it is so intriguing that I think can make a great discussion in the comment section below! So will it fill the gap?