DOW JONES One last drop below the 1D MA50 is possibleDow Jones (DJIA) has found itself in an uncomfortable spot as it's been trading sideways within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and Resistance 1 of the December 2024 High, for the past two weeks.
The 1D RSI has already started trending downwards on a Bearish Divergence while the 1D MACD just completed a Bearish Cross. The times we've seen all those conditions fulfilled within the 2-year Channel Up, are in mid-May 2024 and early May 2023.
On both occasions, the price got rejected on Resistance 1 and pulled back below the 1D MA50 to form a Higher Low. After the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross, the price confirmed a technical reversal and targeted the 1.5 Fibonacci extension before the next pull-back.
As a result, you might want to keep a buy order waiting for a sub-MA50 drop and buy once a MACD Bullish Cross is formed to target 46500 (Fib 1.5 ext).
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Stockindexsignals
S&P500 consolidation is over. Massive rally starting.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the October 27 2023 Low. For almost the past 30 days it has been ranging sideways on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The index is no stranger to this at all.
On the contrary, this is a common Consolidation Phase that SPX has been through another 3 times within the Channel Up. As you can see, every time the index recovered from a Bearish Leg below the 1D MA50, it consolidated for around 1 month above the 1D MA50 and then resumed the Bullish Leg to complete at least a +15% rise from the bottom.
The 1D RSI sequences among all those fractals (including today's) are identical. As a result, we are preparing for a massive rally any day now, expecting a new +15% Bullish Leg to reach at least 6600.
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NASDAQ repeating the 2021 and 2019 rallies.Nasdaq (NDX) is about to complete a Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern. The whole sequence since the August 22 2024 High appears to be very similar with the price action that preceded the 2021 and 2019 C&H patterns.
As you can see, both of those pattern had an identical trend towards them and equally rally after them, which targeted the 2.618 Fibonacci extension.
If the current C&H is completed on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), it is reasonable to expect to continue to repeat those past patterns. As long as the 20600 Low doesn't break, we expect a June rally to 24650 at least.
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FTSE 100 Target reached. How to trade next.Only a month ago (January 03, see chart below) we gave a strong buy signal on FTSE 100 (UK100) right after it bottomed on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line):
As you see, the subsequent rebound hit our 8650 Target even quicker than we expected and the price now sits exactly at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 3-year Channel Up.
We will now proceed with the standard break-out or rejection strategy based on candle closing. If the index closes a 1W candle above the 3-year Channel Up, buy and target 9050 by May, which translates to a +13.40% rise from the Higher Low (December 16 2024) of the diverging (blue) Channel Up, similar to its first Bullish Leg.
As long as the index doesn't close a 1W candle above the 3-year Channel Up, our next buy opportunity will be on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) again, a fair technical correction/ Bearish Leg. Again the Target will be 9050.
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DOW JONES Can the 1D MA50 save the day once more?Dow Jones (DJIA) has been trading within a year long Channel Up and this week's pull-back has so far found Support just above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). As this chart shows, every 1D MA50 contact that was made after a Channel Up bottom (Higher Low), was a buy opportunity as the blue arc patterns highlight.
The green arcs are the Channel bottoms and technically the strongest buy opportunities and in the past 10 months we've only had 3 of those. This is the 4th blue arc however, the medium-term buy opportunity.
Regardless of colour, the 4H RSI pattern on each of those buy opportunities, has been the same. And the resulting rally has either hit the 1.5 Fibonacci extension or made a +8.33% rise.
This time the 1.5 Fib is a bit closer to the price, so that will be our medium-term Target at 46750.
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S&P500 4H Bullish Cross signals rally to 6200.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been consolidating within a Rectangle pattern, which is coming out a MA100/200 Bullish Cross on the 4H time-frame. The identical consoliation phase of July - August 2024 bottomed right after such Bullish Cross and then rebounded towards the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level before pulling back to the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) again.
With the 1D MACD about to confirm the bottom with a Bearish Cross similar to September 04 2024, we expect a strong rally to start by the end of the week and target 6200 (just below the 1.382 Fibonacci extension).
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NASDAQ 1D MA100 held. Strong rally ahead.Last week we took a look at Nasdaq's (NDX) Triangle and the buy signal that emerged on the short-term Support Zone (see chart below):
The signal turned out to be successful and the price eventually hit our 21800 Target and got rejected again on the Lower Highs trend-line.
Today an even stronger buy signal emerged, this time on a long term horizon as not only did the price touch the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the August 2024 Channel Up but also hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
This is the 3rd test of this level in 2 weeks and the 3rd hold. Technically this is a Triple Bottom formation and one of the strongest buy signals. Two times already within this Channel Up we have seen Bullish Legs of +15.70%. As a result we can technically target 23700.
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DOW JONES close to a rejection. See where to buy & target 47000.Dow Jones (DJI) gave us the most optimal buy entry on our previous call (January 09 2025, see chart below), as we bought right below the 4H MA200, which was the bottom of the 1-year Channel Up, and on minimum risk it hit our 45000 Target:
The price is currently about to break above Resistance 1. As this chart shows, every time a sub-1D MA50 (blue trend-line) rebound broke above a Resistance 1 level, it was only on a marginal note and then corrected back to the 1D MA50.
The two notable examples where August 30 2024 and May 20 2024. After the correction bottomed and the bullish trend was resumed, the rebound that followed reached the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, making a roughly +8.50% rise from the Low.
This indicates that the next Higher High of the Channel Up should be a little over 47000 and that will be our Target after we catch that 1D MA50 pull-back entry.
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S&P500 Yesterday's crash has confirmed +9.20% rebound.The S&P500 index (SPX) rebounded strongly back to its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), following yesterday's flash crash and recovered most than 50% of last week's Highs. The rebound took place exactly on the former Lower Highs trend-line of December's correction.
This correction was the technical Bearish Leg of the post August 05 2024 Channel Up and the rebound on it indicates that the market has turned it from Resistance to Support. Similar Lower Highs trend-lines were formed during the last two major corrections (July and April 2024) and the common feature on all (including the current one) is that a 4H Golden Cross was formed immediately after the break-out.
What followed after the Golden Cross was one last pull-back before a +9.20% rise. Yesterday's crash is most likely that pull-back. As a result, we should now be expecting a new +9.20% rise on the medium-term, with our Target being 6450.
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NASDAQ Triple buy signal.Nasdaq (NDX) is having a very aggressive correction early into the week, mostly due to Chinese start-up DeepSeek. Fundamentals aside, this move has taken the index back to its 1-month Support Zone, which has given an excellent buy entry 3 times already.
At the same time, it has come the closest to the Higher Lows trend-line that has been in effect since October 01 2024, while the 4H RSI entered its oversold (<30.00) Support Zone, which in the past 3 months has offered the 5 most optimal buy opportunities.
This is in our opinion a Triple Buy Signal on the short-term, which should test at least the Lower Highs trend-line at 21800, before patterns on the wider, longer term time-frames take over.
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DOW has a full Bull year ahead based on PRESIDENT'S CHEATSHEETDow Jones (DJI) has started the year on a positive note and that is anything but a coincidence. On this 1W chart you can see Dow's price action since the early 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis.
That happened to be Obama's 1st year of Presidency. As you can see, 2009 was an incredibly bullish year with the index rising more than +60% from the year's bottom.
Four years later in 2013, which was the 1st year of Obama's 2nd term in office, Dow had again a strong year, rising by +25% (naturally the previous term was more aggressive as the market had tremendous upside potential to recover from one of the worst economic crises in history).
Moving forward again 4 years (2017), we can see yet another bullish (+35%) 1st year of Presidency, this time Trump's first term.
Biden also had his fair share of bullish 1st year of Presidency in 2021 (+23%).
The pattern is evident and shows the euphoria the market has when the U.S. President assumes his duties on his 1st year. It also shows that (excluding as mentioned 2009, which was natural to see a stronger recovery) on average it is fair to expect a price increase during the 1st year of around +25% to +30%.
In fact, the price action that led to the current 1st year of Presidency that has just started (Trump's 2nd term), is very similar to the one that preceded Obama's 2nd term (2013). Both formed a Channel Up after the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) was tested and held. That pattern pushed the price higher until the 1st year of Presidency, that found the index on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Even the 1W MACD sequences that preceded this, are similar between the two fractals.
As a result, investors have a strong reason to be bullish in 2025 and if pattern achieves the bear minimum of 2021 (+23%), we can expect to see 51000 by the end of the year.
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S&P500 smashed every Resistance on its way to 6350.The S&P500 index (SPX) hit and rebounded today on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), following last week's break-out. This is the confirmed start of the technical Bullish Leg of the 6-month Channel Up along with the 1D MACD Bullish Cross.
Having made a Higher Low on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) last Monday (January 13), we are expecting the standard 1.786 Fibonacci extension as the next Higher High of the pattern. That gives us a 6350 Target.
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RUSSELL 2000 One last Resistance remains before mega rally.Russell 2000 (RUT) gave us an excellent buy signal on our last analysis (October 22 2024, see chart below) exactly on the 1D MA50 and within 5 weeks it hit our 2465 Target:
The price almost immediately pulled back, showing the efficiency of our Target placement and the pattern that has now prevailed is the Channel Up that started more than a year ago (October 27 2023).
The recent Higher Low of this pattern was exactly on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the pattern's bottom. The 1D RSI showcased a Bullish Divergence (Higher Lows) against the price's Lower Lows as an early buy signal, which was confirmed on the January 14 2024 1D MACD Bullish Cross. As you can see, all Bullish Crosses below a 0.0 MACD, have been technical buy signals.
What remains is for the price to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the level that is causing a rejection today. Once recovered, we expect the index to complete at least a +21% rally from the recent bottom, the minimum of the previous 3 rallies, and target 2600.
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NASDAQ Major Lower Highs break-out just took place!Nasdaq (NDX) broke on Friday above the Lower Highs trend-line that started more than a month ago on the December 16 2024 High that initiated the recent correction. This has technically been a Bearish Leg within the +2 year Channel Up and every time such a structure broke above its Lower Highs trend-line, a strong rally followed.
At the same time, the 1D MACD just completed a Bullish Cross below the 0.0 neutral level and out of the 9 previous time this took place, it only failed to produce an immediate rally 2 times.
We technically see that the current Bullish Leg that started on the August 05 2024 Low, isn't over yet, so we still expect it to complete a +47% to +48% rise before a stronger correction. As a result, our Target is 25000.
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S&P500 This is why 2025 will be Bullish.The S&P500 index (SPX) just hit its 1W MA25 (red trend-line) for the first time since the August 05 2024 Low (5 months ago). This is a major long-term Support trend-line, the first one out of a total three.
As you can see on this chart, the index has been trading within a Channel Up on the log scale ever since the bottom of the 2008/09 Housing Crisis. During this pattern, it has gone through phases of strong and extended Bull where the 1W MA25 and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) offers the Support Zone and every test is a buy opportunity and when those break, the Bear phase starts, which finds Support on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), with the exception being of course the non-technical, once in 100 years event of the March 2020 COVID flash crash.
It is now the 1W MA25 that comes as the first major Support level and with the 1W RSI forming the same kind of Channel Down divergence as early 2014, we expect further extension of the current Bull Phase into 2025.
In fact, every Bull Cycle has either increased by roughly +100% or +62% and since the current one is way over +62%, it is fair to expect that it will pursue the +100% mark. That is currently exactly at 7000 and could be achieved by the end of 2025 as every previous Cycle Top was priced towards the end its year with a frequency of either 3 or 4 years.
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NASDAQ One more low to go.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a short-term Channel Down since the December 16 2024 High. So far it has made two Lows and each one bottomed after the 4H RSI made Double Bottom as seen on the chart.
Right now the 4H RSI just turned oversold below 30.00, so technically we still have room for one last Low before we see a rebound. We expect the next Bullish Leg to target at least 21300, which is marginally below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, the level that formed the previous two Lower Highs of the Channel Down.
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NIFTY Best buy opportunity before +20% rise.The Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) has been trading within a Channel Up every since the June 2022 market bottom of the Inflation Crisis. Last week it broke below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since March 27 2023 and this week touched the bottom of the Channel Up.
As long as it closes the 1W candle inside the Channel Up, the trend will technically remain bullish. The standard rally of the previous Bullish Legs has been +20%. As a result, we can remain bullish for now and target 27500 (just below the +20% mark).
If it closes a week below the Channel Up, we may very well see further technical correction until it either hits the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) or the 1W RSI gets bearish below 40.00 towards the bottom of its 3-year Rectangle.
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DOW JONES The RSI shows the bottom is in.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 1-year Channel Up and is on a Bearish Leg since the December 05 2024 High. The price has found support so far 4 times on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and is consolidating.
This is most likely a bottom formation as the 4H RSI is posting a Bullish Divergence similar to the 3 previous times in 2024 when the price broke below the 4H MA200. Technically once the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks, we should a confirmed Bullish Leg, which is what happened on all 3 occasions.
The minimum Target is Resistance 1 at 45000. Note that as long as the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) holds, the bullish trend will continue to be favored.
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S&P500 no major pullbacks expected in 2025. Year-end Target 7200The S&P500 (SPX) has started the first week of the new year (2025) on a positive note following a red December. In fact December was only the 3rd red month of the whole 2024. Based on its 16-year Channel Up pattern, this bullish trend isn't expected to slowdown in 2025.
In fact, no major pull-backs are expected this year, as the end sequence of 2024 resembles the August 2013, which led to a very bullish 18-month period after.
As you can see, the start of the Channel Up, which was the bottom of the 2008 - 2009 U.S. Housing Crisis followed the same stages as the pattern after the March 2020 COVID bottom. The bottoms have been stage (a) with (b) being the first short-term pull-back and (c) the second, which was also a 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) test. It appears that we are currently on stage (d), where as explained led the way to a bullish 18-month period.
The peak of the early Channel Up pattern was on the 2.786 Fibonacci extension from the stage (c) bottom and the 18-month period ended on the 1.382 time Fib extension. If we take the same measurements on the post COVID pattern, the 1.382 time Fib extension lands on October 2026. For 2025 alone we can expect a +23.73% rise from the last red candle of (d), if the post August 2013 12-month pattern is followed, which gives us an end-of-year (2025) Target of 7200.
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NASDAQ rebounding strongly on its 1D MA50. 1 month rally ahead.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a 4-month Channel Up and hit last Tuesday its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) exactly on the Channel's bottom. Even though it marginally broke it, the 1D candle closed exactly on the 1D MA50, causing a strong bullish Friday reaction.
As today opened equally green, we technically view this sequence as the start of the new Bullish Leg of the pattern, which may be confirmed today if the 1D RSI breaks above its MA (yellow trend-line), as both previous Bullish Legs did.
Our Target is 22600, which represents a +9.00% rise, the minimum a Bullish Leg had within this Channel Up.
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FTSE 100 bottom formed. Target for Summer 2025 set.FTSE 100 (UK100) is currently on a strong rebound after a mid-December hit-and-hold on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). That was a Double Bottom along with the November 11 2024 1W candle Low. At the same time, this rebound is taking place after a test of the 13-month Higher Lows Zone.
In fact, that Zone started during the previous bottom formation on October 23 2023, shortly after the 1W RSI formed a Higher Lows Bullish Divergence. This time the 1W RSI is on Lower Lows but since the 2024 and 2023 fractals are very similar and the 1W MA50 is holding, we expect the bottom to be already priced in.
As you can see, both previous macro Bullish Legs of FTSE's 2-year Channel Up, targeted the 1.382 Fibonacci extension once the previous High (Resistance Zone) broke. As a result, we are now setting 8650 as a Q2 2025 Target.
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DOW JONES Bullish accumulation below the 1D MA50.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Channel Up since the July 18 High. Right now the price is consolidating between its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). At the same time, the 1D RSI breached the oversold barrier (30.00) and rebounded.
This trading sequence has presented the most efficient buy opportunity since April 19 2024 and the even though all Bullish Legs that followed have been a little over +8.00%, the weakest one has been +7.63%. As a result, our current Bullish Leg Target of 45235 is formulated out of that minimum.
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S&P500 First 4H Death Cross in 5 months! Is it bearish indeed?The S&P500 index (SPX) is on a decline since Thursday and despite the thin holiday volume and less trading days, is a sign of weakness on the short-term. Especially having completed a Death Cross on the 4H time-frame on December 24.
In fact, this is the first 4H Death Cross in 5 months (since July 29). During that sequence, the index was under heavy seasonal selling pressure but initially rose following the Death Cross. Soon after though it collapsed lower on bad macroeconomics.
This time however, the trend turned bearish immediately after the Death Cross. The buy signal in August was the Aug 05 4H RSI Double Bottom. This time, the RSI has already started rising since yesterday.
In our opinion, this suggests that the selling pressure by the 4H Death Cross is most likely over and we can technically see the new Bullish Leg of the 3-month Channel Up.
The most common % rise these past few months has been +7.19%. If we count that from the recent December 20 Low, then we should be expecting a 6200 Target by late January - early February.
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