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DOW JONES made 1st 4H Golden Cross in 6 months!Dow Jones (DJI) gave us a solid bullish break-out signal after it broke out above its 1D MA50 last week (May 06, see chart below): As you can see this gave way to a new Channel Up, which we view on the current analysis on the 4H time-frame. That is because on Friday it formed the first 4H Golden Cross in 6 months (since November 08 2023)! This is on its own a very strong bullish signal but it gets even stronger if we consider the fact that the last 4H Golden Cross was formed while the index was in a similar pattern, recovering from August - October correction. Dow then entered a very aggressive uptrend/ Channel Up that never broke even its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) before January. As a result, we move our short-term Target even higher, on a symmetrical +3.45% Bullish Leg at 40300, which will be a new All Time High (ATH) for the index. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingShot
RUSSELL 2000 preparing for a long-term rally.Last time we looked at Russell 2000 (RUT) on April 01 (see chart below), we called for a pull-back towards the Symmetrical Suport Zone, which as you see took place and the price immediately rebounded: We are now at the top of the Channel Down, which so far is a mirror of the January - March 2022 Channel Up and technically is the Handle of the long-term Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern and a Bull Flag. As long as the index remains within the Flag, one last test of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is possible but our long-term Target of 2293.0 (Resistance 2) remains intact. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
PEPPERSTONE:US2000
by TradingShot
1
HANG SENG This pull-back is the final buy opportunity.Hang Seng (HSI1!) has started a technical pull-back after getting rejected at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Bullish Megaphone. The minimum correction within this 4-month pattern has been -5.29%, so we are looking to buy after such a dip, potential 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test and target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (19700). This is the standard target on Inverse Head and Shoulders patterns. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
HKEX:HSI1!
by TradingShot
NASDAQ on the most important level that will determine the trendNasdaq (NDX) easily hit our 18000 Target, which we set 2 weeks ago (April 23, see chart below): That was the top of the Channel Down and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. As mentioned this is an important Resistance level as during the previous correction of the 1.5 year Channel Up (which bottomed on October 26 2023), the 0.786 Fib was the level that rejected the first upside attempt (on September 01 2023). As a result, we are willing to buy again only if the index closes a 1D candle above the 0.786 Fib, in which case we will target 19950 (the 2.0 Fibonacci extension). Until that happens, we have to consider the probability of a rejection on the 0.786 Fib stronger, thus turn bearish, targeting 17000 (just above Support 1). The risk is low on that trade as we will take the loss the moment a 1D candle gets closed above the 0.786 Fib. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100
by TradingShot
S&P500 above the 1D MA50 after 3 weeks.S&P500 (SPX) is already going even better than our bottom buy signal last week (May 02, see chart below), having topped the 4H Channel Up, considerably above the 4H MA200: The index closed yesterday above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 11. Last time it did this was on November 03 2023 and after 5 days of consolidation, it broke the previous Lower High and resumed the long-term bullish trend by forming a Channel Up. It's first Higher High target was within the 2.236 - 2.0 Fibonacci extension Zone, so once it breaks the April's High, we will add more buys, targeting 5650 (Fib 2.0). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
1
NIKKEI Is it worth buying here?Nikkei (NI225) is about to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time as a Resistance, following the bearish break-out on April 15, which was its first breach since November 02 2023. This is a very consistent behavioral pattern with both of the previous two corrections of the 2-year Channel Up pattern. As you can see, reclaiming the 1D MA50 wasn't enough for either correction to make the index resume the uptrend, even closing above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level didn't guarantee it. What did form the index' bottom however, was the 1D RSI touching the 30.00 oversold limit (green circle). At the moment the index is rebounding off such an RSI test. This means that this time we may see the recovery much earlier, so once we close a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, we will turn bullish again, targeting 46000 (Channel's top and below the minimum +31.73% of Bullish Legs patterns). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:NI225Long
by TradingShot
DOW JONES Broke above its 1D MA50. Is it bullish finally?Dow Jones (DJI) broke on Friday above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 10 and even though it failed to close above it, today has already established the price action above it. This is a strong first bullish signal but isn't enough by itself. Even though the 1D RSI has already turned its MA from Resistance to Support, we need to see a 1D candle closing above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, as we pointed out in previous analyses. If that happens, we will turn bullish again, targeting the 40000 High. Until then, having low risk on this strategy being so close to the invalidation level, we are bearish and targeting 37900 (the 0.236 Fibonacci level). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30
by TradingShot
CHINA A50 on the 1W MA100 after 2.5 years! Ultimate Bull test!When we looked at the China A50 index (CN50) last year (December 21 2023, see chart below), we got the best buy entry possible on more than 1 year span: Our long-term Target at the time of 13000 is almost hit but it now time to re-evaluate our perspective as the index not only hit the top of its almost 2-year Falling Wedge but more importantly made contact with the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time in almost 2.5 years (since the week of December 28 2021). This is the ultimate test for the Chinese market. A closing above that Resistance cluster, will turn us bullish again, targeting the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) at 14250. Until that closing happens, we turn bearish on the medium-term, targeting 11850 (just above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level). It has to be mentioned that the 1W RSI has already made a bullish break-out above its 3-year Lower Highs trend-line, potentially hinting finally towards a long-term trend change to bullish. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:CN50
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 4H Channel Up aiming higher.This is a short-term outlook on the S&P500 (SPX) following yesterday's Fed Rate Decision. The short-term pattern on the 4H time-frame is a Channel Up and is giving us some important developments. Even though yesterday's attempt to stay above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) failed, the index managed to stay on the Channel Up bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) and is since rising steadily on green 4H candles, attempting to form a bottom (Higher Low). A closing above the 4H MA50 can be the bullish confirmation this pattern needs but outside of it, we see the Ichimoku Cloud turning green again for the first time since April 09. If the 4H MACD completes the emerging Bullish Cross, we will have a strong bullish mix in our hands and most likely the Channel Up will go first for a 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) test, since last time it was rejected on the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and eventually complete a +4.00% Bullish Leg (like the previous one) at 5200. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
SPY gave us a solid sell. Is it still bearish?Last time we looked at SPY (April 11, see chart below), we got what we wanted, a break below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that met our exact bearish expectation which was a -5.93% decline, absolutely symmetrical with August 18 2023: As the subsequent rebound got rejected on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line on the chart above), the question is the following: Is SPY still bearish? Technically, yes as long as it closes weekly (1W) candles below the 1D MA50. But at the same time, being supported on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line on the chart above), keeps short term neutral/ ranged thus the expectations for a bullish break-out live. But it has to close above the 1D MA50 to confirm that. As you can see, a comparison with recovery patterns following systemic Cycle corrections like the one in 2022, offers valuable conclusions. Basically, since the 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis, the three major corrections of the current Cycle, have followed similar patterns (2011 - 2013, 2015 - 2017 and 2022 - 2024). The key common characteristic is that the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) has been the major Support. After two pull-backs that hit the 1W MA50 straight after the correction's bottom, both the 2011 - 2013 and 2015 - 2017 fractals made a smaller pull-back (green Rectangle) that hit the 1D MA100. It appears that this is where the index is currently at. If this correlation continues to hold and the index won't dive further to the 1W MA50, it might hit the 2.0 Fibonacci extension as its first Target, which is what the other two fractals aimed at. That is at 555.00. Notice also the similarities between the 1W RSI patterns. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
AMEX:SPY
by TradingShot
1
NASDAQ One final dip left before it bottoms?Nasdaq (NDX) started the week on a bearish not and is correcting the last 1W candle, only a few hours left before the Fed Rate Decision. This is fundamentally the game changer for stocks, any hint towards cuts in the near future should have a strong positive effect on the markets. Technically though, the long-term Channel Up pattern that started on the December 2022 Low has a base bottom on the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) - 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) Zone. In fact, both corrections/ Bearish Legs of the pattern, hit at least the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level before finding Support and reversing upwards. The 0.382 Fib is currently at 16800, any negative remarks during Powell's press conference can quickly and effortlessly hit that level. Even the 1W RSI suggests that we might be on a Lower High similar to the week of October 09 2023. Whatever the outcome, those are levels good enough to buy for the long-term as the upside potential is significant and our personal Target is 20500 (top of the Channel Up). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:NDX
by TradingShot
4
NIFTY Wait for a 1D MA50 pull-back and buy.The Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) has been trading within a Channel Up since late December 2023 and today it hit the April 10 2024 High. That was a Higher High for the Channel Up and the price immediately got rejected. Based on the 1D RSI, it may rise some more to its Resistance Zone before getting rejected but this sequence is very similar with the February 02 2024 rejection. Both fractals made clear technical Higher Lows at the bottom of the Channel Up and the February one after the rejection, pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) before finding Support and new buyers. As a result, we are only willing to turn bullish again on the 1D MA50 and then target the Channel's standard target of the 1.382 Fib extension at 23100. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NSE:NIFTY
by TradingShot
FTSE Target hit. Can it go even higher?FTSE100 (UK100) hit today our 8150 Target, which we set a month ago (March 20, see chart below): Since last week the 1W candle closed (much) higher than the February 2023 Resistance, we see the pattern continuing its strong resemblance with the October 2022 - February 2023 Bullish Leg. The long-term pattern continues to be a Channel Up and its previous Bullish Leg topped just below the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, making its technical Higher High. As a result, our Target is 8350 (just below the new 1.382 Fib extension). Note that if that Fib level breaks, we may even see accelerated growth as high as to complete +20% from the bottom. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:UK100Long
by TradingShot
DOW JONES Test of 4H MA200 imminent to decide the trend.Dow Jones (DJI) gave a solid short-term sell signal on the MACD Bearish Cross last time we analyzed it on the 4H time-frame (April 24, see chart below): Similarly, it is flashing a strong buy signal now after the 0.236 Fibonacci rebound that keeps the price action above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), in similar fashion as September 14 2023. The 4H MACD even completed a Bullish Cross and the next sequence on that fractal is a 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) test. Our target is 38750. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingShot
S&P500 Quick buy trade.The S&P500 is approaching the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) to test it as a Resistance for the first time after the April 15 bearish break-out. It has already broken above the Bearish Megaphone, the 4H RSI has formed a Channel Up similar to the price action's and so far this sequence of events is fairly identical to the previous correction of August 2023. That sequence almost touched the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level before pulling back again, so we have ourselves a solid short-term bullish target. In fact we are placing ours a little lower at 5150, which represents a +4.70% rise from the bottom as that is not only the % rise that the August 2023 rebound returned but will also make contact with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
1
DOW JONES Attention! These are currently the key levels to know!Following a successful sell signal at the top of the long-term Channel Up (March 28, see chart below), Dow Jones (DJI) is staging its first attempt to resume the bullish trend: Observing past behavior in similar circumstances often helps at making such projections, so we placed Dow's previous correction in August 2023 (right chart) next to today's. The key levels when the index made a similar attempt to regain the long-term bullish trend as the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 0.618 Fibonacci. As you can see on August 31 it marginally broke above both but failed to close a single 4H candle above them and was subsequently rejected back to the 0.236 Fib. A 4H MACD Bearish Cross took place exactly on that candle's rejection. As a result, we will only buy the break-out if Dow closes a 4H candle above the current 0.618 Fib (38950) in which case we will target the 40000 High. Until then we will sell even the slightest 4H MA200 rejection and target 37900 (Fib 0.236). We can already see a 4H MACD Bearish Cross emerging. The risk either way is low. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30
by TradingShot
NASDAQ Relief rally to 18000 ahead?Nasdaq (NDX) finally hit yesterday our long-term bearish Target (17130), which we called a while ago (March 12, see chart below) but was postponed due to the Double Top formation: The index is now on a mixed sentiment as even though it is on a correction sequence below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), the 1D RSI hit the 30.00 oversold limit as this Bearish Leg almost completed a -8.50% decline. During the previous Bearish Leg of the multi-month Channel Up pattern, the index had a relief rally towards the 0.786 Fib, after an initial -8.50% decline. We can see that this took place on the 0.3 Fib (blue) from the top. As a result we expect a short-term (at least) bounce to 18000. As long as the index doesn't break above the (blue) Channel Down and in particularly close a 1D candle above the 0.786 Fib (18150), we can expect a Lower Low after this relief rally. If it does close above it, we will resume most likely the long-term bullish trend earlier and we will update our position. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by TradingShot
5
S&P500 Dead-cat-bounce before one last bottom?Our last call on the S&P500 (SPX) couldn't have gone better as the Bearish Megaphone pattern we expected (April 05, see chart below) was eventually materialized and easily hit on Tuesday our 5050 Target: At the moment the index is below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the main Support since November 03 2023 and is headed towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) above which the last two main Bearish Legs of the 19-month Channel Up made their first Dead-cat-bounce (March 02 and August 18 2023). As long as this dead-cat-bounce is contained below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, we see more likely one last corrective wave towards Support 1 and close to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As long as at the time the 1D RSI is on its Support Zone, we will buy for the long-term and target the top of the 19-month Channel Up at 5400. If the price breaks above the 0.786, we will have a pattern invalidation and buy the break-out instead, targeting again 5400. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
1
DOW JONES Sell target hit. When will it reverse?Dow Jones (DJI) hit the 38050 Target that we set on our last bearish call (March 28, see chart below) and broke below Support 1 (February 13 Low) and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line): The price now faces more selling pressure being below two MA periods and with the long-term Channel Up (started on the October 13 2022 bottom), having considerable downside to give. As we mentioned on our March idea above, the most effective buy entry within this long-term pattern is when the 1D CCI makes the first Higher Low after having broken below the -100.00 oversold barrier. That is what happened on March 13 2023 and September 22 2023 (even though that sequence had one more Low to give). The most fascinating characteristic of both those corrective Legs was that they both declined by -9.25%. If Dow repeats this decline, we are looking at 36285, which is just above Support 2 but currently exactly where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is. The latter is our main point of focus and assuming the index will give a dead-cat-bounce now towards th 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we project that it may hit the 1D MA200 around 36900. If that coincides with a 1D CCI Higher Low, it will be in our opinion the most optimal buy entry for the next long-term Bullish Leg, targeting 41000. Note that the dead-cat-bounces on both previous Bearish Legs, never closed a 1D candle above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, so that is the parameter that will keep the current correction valid. If we do get a 1D candle close above the 0.618 Fib, it will technically be a pattern invalidation and trend reversal upwards so we will buy the bullish break-out and Target 41000 regardless. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30
by TradingShot
NASDAQ Emphatically below its 1D MA50 after +5 months!Nasdaq (NDX) is on the pull-back process, a correction that we called on our March 12 idea (see chart below) when the index reached the top of its 1 year Channel Up: Even as recently as last week (see chart below) we called for the ideal sell entry and set a 17500 Target: As you can see, the index emphatically broke and closed below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) yesterday for the first time in more than 5 months (April 04 also closed below it but only marginally). That is technically as strong bearish break-out signal. The idea now is that we want the index to hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which has been intact since November 06 2023, see how the market reacts and then determine if that is a low or not. Technically if it replicates the August 18 2023 Low, we should be expecting a Low on the 0.3 Fibonacci retracement level at 17,150 at least, which also happens to be just above Support 1. The decline on the Aug 18 2023 Low was of the -8.52% magnitude, so that gives us a 16900 downside limit. We don't expect the pull-back to go that low though this time. A fair bottom signal can be when the 1D RSI hits 35.00 or the bottom of its Channel Down, similar to what took place on August 18 2023. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by TradingShot
DOW JONES Secret Cycles you didn't know existed!On this analysis we examine the Dow Jones index (DJI) from the longer term perspective of the 1M time-frame. A lot of market participants has started to get nervous because of this month's pull-back and this is the best way to keep a calm mindset and view the price action objectively. In order to see if the market has a legitimate reason to panic or not, the answer can be given by observing the index from a cyclical point of view. To begin with, the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) has been the absolute multi-year Support level (since October 2010 only two candle closings below it, March 2020 COVID flash crash and recently the September 2022 inflation bottom). The market deems every pull-back towards it, a buy opportunity with the lowest possible risk. Since the bottom of the 2008-2009 Housing Crisis, the 1M RSI bottoms on Lower Lows help us classify the multi-month phases into Cycles. The duration of each Cycle since the 1st, has been pretty consistent (39 to 48 months so far). When the index closes a 1M candle below the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), the correction towards the 1M MA50 is usually under way. Also there is a striking consistency on the growth of each Cycle. As you can see, with the exception of the first (naturally the most aggressive since it was the start of the recovery after a Bear Cycle), every Cycle sees gains within the range of +70% and +77%. As a result assuming the new Cycle follows a similar pattern, we can expect a minimum Target of 48850 (+70% from Low) and a Cycle ending on December 2025 (39 months from previous Low). Technically the index should peak around the the start of 2025, entering a volatile period towards the end of the year. This is as close to a projection one can make on such a long-term horizon and with tons of fundamental risks involved. Where do you think Dow Jones will top at? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
2
DAX Started a correction. We have a clear short-term Target.DAX has a rejection on April 01 exactly at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 18-month Channel Up (since October 03 2022). The 1D MACD made a Bearish Cross, being Lower High than the previous one on December 18 2023, which is exactly what happened on the January 27 2023 Bearish Cross. That sequence was the first Bullish Leg that topped to form the Channel's Higher High and then pulled-back to marginally below the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and even test the previous Resistance, which turned Support eventually. As a result, we remain bearish on DAX, targeting at least 17700 (Fib 0.236). The previous Resistance is at 17000 but we will update if that Target will be pursued. The safest action would be to wait for the 1D MACD to form a Bullish Cross under the 0.0 level and buy for the long-term. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by TradingShot
S&P500 Bull Cycle intact. 100 year long Blueprint revealed!A lot of talk is being done lately on whether the S&P500 index (SPX) has maxed now that it made new All Time Highs (ATH) or it is in need of a strong correction etc. Those who have been following us for long here, know that in times like this, we like to keep a long-term perspective and give you the picture unfiltered with the facts only. Along those lines, we present you the S&P's Cycle Analysis on a century wide scale. As you can see, since the Great Depression, the stock market started to creat a pattern with clear systemic behaviors. Each time there are fundamentals involved that merely serve as 'reasons' to fill out and complete this pattern. Following the 1932 Great Depression bottom, the 1st Secular Bull Cycle begun, that lasted for 28.5 years (343 months) rising by +1888%. Then the Secular Bear Cycle started in the form of a Megaphone pattern. Its 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) and the 2nd Low (the Cycle's bottom) was formed below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line). The 2nd Secular Bull Cycle lasted for almost 26 years (311 months) and saw +2361% growth. As per our blueprint, the Secular Bear Cycle was initiated once the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) broke. Again the 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 and the 2nd Low below the 1M MA200. With regards to the current Cycle, which is what most are interested at naturally, notice how the 1M MA50 has been supporting since late 2011. It emphatically held both on the September 2022 Low (Inflation crisis bottom) and the March 2020 Low (COVID crash bottom). This indicates again that as long as it supports, the Secular Bull Cycle will be extended. Based on the previous Cycle-to-Cycle parameters the model suggests that the current Cycle should be a little than 23 years long (279 months, i.e. 32 month shorter than the previous) and rise by +2834% (+473% higher than the previous). This may all be speculation theoretically but trends that keep repeating themselves over the decades are not. Technically those filter out all news, fundamentals, geopolitical, macroeconomical noise and give rise to a pure behavioral perspective, the essence of traditional Economics. Are you willing to bet against this blueprint? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
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