NASDAQ hit the 1D MA50 for the first time since March!It's been almost 1 month since we last gave a signal on Nasdaq (NDX), hitting the 15900 target (chart below):
The setting is different now, as the index hit yesterday its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in almost 5 months (since March 15). This isn't a buy signal yet as yesterday's 1D candle closed marginally below it. Another candle closing below it, will be a sell signal targeting the bottom of the long-term Channel Up pattern and Support 2 at 14690. That will be an excellent buy entry (target 15950) but will be invalidated if the price closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), in which case we will sell again and target Support 3 at 14240.
If however we get a 1D candle close above the 1D MA50 before a second below it, we will buy instead and target the 15950 Resistance, as in that case it will look like the March 13 bottom fractal.
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Stockindices
FTSE Ahead of a major bullish break-out.The FTSE 100 Index (UK100) is consolidating above the Support of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) with the 1D RSI at 66.250. This is the symmetrical level is was trading at during the November 04 - 09 2022 consolidation. Both near the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level.
That fractal eventually broke upwards, hit the Lower Highs trend-line (the dominant Resistance) and extended to Fib 2.0 even marginally surpassing the Resistance of the last Lower High.
We are going long on that buy signal and target the 7900 (Fib 2.0).
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S&P500 Another buy opportunity on its way to 4640.S&P500 is having a short pull back today after crossing over Resistance 1 (4515).
Despite the constant rise, it remains inside both the yellow 4 month Channel Up as well as the wider one from late last year.
This bullish wave draws similarities with May-June.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
2. Sell if it crosses under the MA50 (1d).
Targets:
1. 4640 (Resistance 2 and top of both Channel Up patterns).
2. 4200 (projected course of the MA200 1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is trading inside its own Channel Up. A break under it, could be an early sell signal to watch for the MA50 (1d).
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DAX 4hour Golden Cross targeting 16550DAX formed today a Golde Cross on the 4hour time frame for the first time since June 7th.
The last 3 4hour Golden Crosses inside the large Channel Up pattern have been buy signals that targeted a little under Fibonacci 1.236.
The 4hour RSI is also having a consolidation similar to those previous fractals.
Buy now and target 16550.
Previous chart:
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DOW JONES is starting a 1 year Expansion phase.Dow Jones (DJI) has been on a bullish leg after it broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and turned it into a Support. If we see the bigger picture on this 1W time-frame, we can relate to the 2015 - 2016 fractal, where the current sequence was the final bullish signal before a 1 year expansion phase. Even the 1W RSI patterns are identical and the Arc appears to be on its end.
As a result, investors should feel more comfortable buying stocks on a long-term horizon, especially as long as the 1W MA50 holds. After tested as Support on June 27 2016, it wasn't broken until October 22 2018, almost 2.5 years later!
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The SPX/DJI ratio points to a multi-year Bull ahead.This is a very informative analysis using the SPX/DJI ratio. In recent decades this has helped at identifying recession and expansion cycles. As this chart shows on the 1M time-frame, after each crash since 2000 and the Dot Com crash (Housing crash, China slowdown, Brexit, Oil Crsis, Trade War crash and the more recent Inflation Crisis), the ratio started to rise, meaning that the S&P500 started to outperform the heavily industrialized Dow Jones Index, which led to a new Bull Cycle.
Since the bottom of the Dot Com Crash, the ration has been trading within a 20 year Channel Up, which is limited by a Lower Highs trend-line. If broken we can start talking above a new mega expansion phase.
The 1M MACD just completed a Bullish Cross last month, suggesting that the current Bull Cycle may only be at its very beginning. Regardless of all that, we believe this is a very interesting ratio to follow and that has offered useful conclusions to you. We hope you enjoyed it!
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S&P500: Small pullback will provide the new buy entry.S&P500 reached the top of the four month Channel Up, remaining on heavily overbought technical indicators on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 75.225, MACD = 61.680, ADX = 45.310). As the 1D RSI is close to hitting the HH trendline that goes as back as November 2022, we expect a pullback, at least on the short term inside the Channel Up, first to drop the overbought indicators back to a balanced stated and secondly to form a HL on the Channel Up.
We are opening a sell on closing, aiming at a -2.60% (TP = 4,460) pull back which was the decline of the last correction. That will be a low risk buy opportunity (as long as the 1D MA50 holds) to target R1 (TP = 4,640).
If the candle closes under the 1D MA50 and S1, we will short and target the 1D MA200 on S3 (TP = 4,165), a potential correction that will neutralize finally the overbought 1D RSI.
Prior idea:
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DAX: Supported by the 1D MA50, ready for a slingshot.DAX is on a marginally bullish 1D timeframe (RSI = 56.008, MACD = 24.500, ADX = 26.521), which indicates that there is still significant upside potential to the rebound that started on the July 7th Low. That Low may have been a HL on the long term Channel Up but also a LL on the two month Channel Down. The 1D RSI is also at the top of its Channel Down, so in order for us to buy again, we need to see a breakout over both tops.
If that happens, then there are high probabilities of the move replicating the slingshot of April-May as they both broke out after an Inverse Head and Shoulders was formed. Consequently we will buy that breakout and set a TP = 16,800.
It's worth mentioning that a crossing over the R1 invalidates the potential of a Head and Shoulders (bearish pattern) that may be forming since May 19th.
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Nasdaq: Price levels and price pattern analysis Today's focus: Nasdaq /NDX100
Pattern – Ascending Triangle
Possible targets – 15,600, 16,500
Support – 15,000
Resistance – 15,220, 15,250
Today we are looking at the Nasdaq/NDX100 as price sits in a continuation pattern just below key resistance. This is an interesting set-up as we have key US inflation data coming out today, and interest rates remain a hottish topic. We have broken down the price action and pattern in today’s video and how this connects to the CPI data.
There’s no guarantee that a drop will drive buyers onward, but it could also be a driver that continues buyer momentum and could set up a new test and break of the pattern. We will be watching the core figure as it’s been the most stubborn of the three. Y/Y is expected to drop to 3.1% and the Core to 0.3%.
The CPI data is due at 8:30 am ET / 10:30 pm AEST.
Have a great day and good trading.
DAX H4 & D1 - Sell SignalDAX40 H4 & D1
Starting to see rejections from this 16300/350 price, I would like to see us pull down towards that 16000 whole number price in the short term before then maybe seeing something even deeper on a higher timeframe basis.
We have indicated an entry (albeit a little late, apologies) for the H4 entry, and also marked the D1 timeframe for reference and significance. Stock indices are massively overpriced at the moment, corrections I feel are certainly over-due!
DAX: Holding the 4H MA50. Accumulating for the next rally.DAX is trading on a Rising Wedge pattern inside a Channel Up, whose 4H RSI just hit the 1 month HL trendline. The 1D technicals remain bullish (RSI = 58.718, MACD = 105.900, ADX = 38.304) hence the long term trend upwards.
As long as the 4H MA50 holds, our target remains the top of the Rising Wedge (TP = 16,100).
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GER30 LongsAnticipating an expansion higher to take out the relative equal highs. Setup is a 1:12 Risk/Reward
FTSE going to beat major indices and close the year in gains?The FTSE100 index (FTSE100) has resumed its bullish trend since the October 13 bottom after hitting both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on December 20. In fact, against all odds during this inflation crisis and in contrast to its heavy stock index counterparts, it is about to close the year in gains (if it stays above the 7420 level this week).
Practically, the index has been within a huge Rectangle pattern in 2022, ranging within 7700 and 6710. If that's not impressive enough, it just completed a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame (when the 1D MA50 crosses above the 1D MA200), which is technically a bullish formation. Last time we saw this pattern was on December 02 2020, as the index was recovering from the COVID crash globally. The price made a Low exactly at the time of the Golden Cross and started a very sustainable rise pattern.
What adds more weight to a bullish continuation, is the fact that the RSI on the 1W time-frame tested and held the former Lower Highs trend-line that was in effect through the majority of 2022.
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DOW JONES: is on the best long term buy levelBased on the 6 month RSI, Dow Jones is making the final rebound on a Lower Highs pattern that since the 1920s leads to a multi year rally to a peak that ends in a Bear Market.
Remarkably all those rallies started on almost the same intervals: 1921, 1962, 1991 and now 2022. Two out of the previous three made the peak at the end of their respective decade.
Key note is the 90 year Higher Lows Support that has formed the low during all thre major Bear Markets of the past 100 years.
It is hard to believe now amidst the high inflation, global geopolitics ect, but Dow Jones may be at the best long term buy level that could lead to an extreme high at the end of the decade.
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Bullish technical conditions S&P 500 Index
Technical conditions: The +5.7% price jump on November 10th could be viewed by technical analysis as a “Flag pole” since the recent seven day price consolidation (daily chart) suggests a “textbook” bull flag continuation pattern is forming. The bullish theme seems to be holding with higher tops and lower bottoms on price since finding support at the October 13th lows near 3,489. Current price 4,005 with resistance (1) spotted near the November 15th highs around 4,050 and resistance (2) near 4,100 (round number). Therefore, from a technical view, long positions could be supported for the short term (5-25 days) provided price can remain above the 3,865 support for upside potential at 4,050 and 4,100 in extension.
Nasdaq Set To Revisit 2022 Low?From the current chart and the indicator perspective the market is bearish. Current price is below MA50. Future kumo of ichimoku is bearish kumo. The risk if you wanna go short is beyond senkou b.
There's potential nasdaq to revisit this year low at 11,038.
Trade wisely, trade well. 🙏🙏🙏
DOW JONES near the 1D MA200/ first time since October 2020!Dow Jones is trading within a Channel Up that has recently broken below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). This is the first time in two months that is giving the first strong buy signals:
* The RSI is near the 30.000 level which has marked price bottoms on June 18 2021, October 29 2020 (in the post COVID crash era).
* The price is approaching the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with the last contact dating back to October 30 2020 (the line held and issued an aggressive rally post US-elections).
* The pattern resembles the June - October 2020 Channel Up. The price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), 1D MA100 and 1D MA200 in the same order and manner.
Naturally the market is waiting for Fed's confirmation tomorrow before it engages aggressively on high volume but this is the time technically to start considering a buy entry again. Based on the Fibonacci extension model, a target of 35900 seems very plausible.
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NASDAQ Start looking for a buy near the 1D MA100 after the FedTwo weeks ago NDX formed a peak formation at the top of the multi-month Channel Up (Higher Highs) and I posted the following chart calling for a strong correction:
As you see that correction is currently underway and having broken below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is looking for the patterns strongest Support, the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) which has been the most optimal buy level since April 2020.
In fact more recently (March and May), the index rebounds shortly after it breaks marginally below the 1D MA100. With the Fed meeting tomorrow being crucial for the market as it either ensures the continuation of very low rate policy (bullish) or signals a start to raising rates (bearish), expect high volatility that may cross the 1D MA100 momentarily on a wick and recover quickly. If the peak I called two weeks ago is the (A) leg, then we are about to complete (B) which on a 1 year basis has been the best buy entry.
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NASDAQ approaching a medium-term topFollowing my most recent analysis on Nasdaq (see chart below), the Channel Up where the index has been trading on for almost 1 year, has traded to perfection:
At the moment, the price is trading exactly on the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the initial Channel Up (blue) and if broken, a new Channel Up (red) may emerge on a marginal divergence. This brings forward the following interesting fractal. Since February of this year, Nasdaq seems to be repeating the September 2020 - January 2021 pattern. As you see on the chart, the (A) to (E) path count is almost identical and it this is the case, then we are currently at the completion of wave (E) with only the blow-off top of (A) remaining. Notice how the RSI sequences are also fairly similar.
Therefore it may be a good idea for investors to pause buying for a few days/ weeks and return right after the index makes contact with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) again as it has done on the last three major buy events within the Channel Up (October 30 2020, March 04 2021, May 11 2021).
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Nasdaq: Weekly Forecast 20210711Nasdaq was faced with a selloff but managed to recover quickly on the last trading day.
Essentially, the market is trading within a rising channel and it is very well supported by moving averages, showing nothing but bullish.
We continue to expect Nasdaq to climb further but will constantly face resistance over the course.
This week, if the price come down at the beginning, we will wait for a pullback towards 14730 to buy.
If the price trends higher, we will simply reassess another pullback level to buy again.
Nasdaq: Weekly Forecast 20210613Nasdaq is potentially going to break a new high this week!
Currently, we are seeing a clear bullish wave forming and continuing towards the top of a rising wedge.
In my instances, the price is able to break out of the pattern and peak higher before ending the trend and into another pullback.
This week, we will buy the pullback, if any, at the beginning of the week and hold it till it at least reaches the top of the rising wedge around 14200.
Should the price breaks out of the pattern, we expect it to reach 14500 before making a turn.
S&P500 may drop -3% to -6%.Pattern: Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Sell as the price broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and since December 21, 2020, every time the index broke below the 4H MA50 it dropped even lower to (or below) the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
Target: Anywhere within a -3% to -6% from the recent High. -3% has more chances as as 3 out of 5 MA50 breaks resulted in a -3% drop.
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