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Apple - Watch The TrendlineHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Apple. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: Starting all the way back in 2010, Apple created its first major higher timeframe break and retest. For many years we saw the same pattern on Apple stock which was simply a trendline rejection and a horizontal break and retest. With the recent breakout and retest I do expect more continuation towards the upside away from the confluence level I mentioned in the video. -------- I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied. Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions. Keep your long term vision.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by basictradingtv
4
2023 Key Resistance for BTCThe price of bitcoin rose to start the week, extending gains from the previous week helped by optimism about a bitcoin exchange-traded fund and a flight to safety. Treasury bonds interest rates are also retreating from their recent highs. Bitcoin was trading about 5% higher at $ 31'518, according to Monday trades, and coming off its best week since June. It has touched $30,000 at several points in 2023 but has struggled to sustain that level or move meaningfully higher with the U.S. regulatory crackdown on crypto weighing on liquidity and trading volumes. Investors are expecting the approval of a bitcoin ETF to change that between the end of the year and the first half of 2024. Several firms have also amended their filings in the past couple weeks to address earlier concerns by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which investors are taking as a positive sign that the agency is engaging positively with the firms. This publication is quick and simple as well as all other articles by @Pandorra Patience.. Patience.. and once again Patience.. 52-weeks highs resistance is very important, and in case of breaking out, it can open an opportunity to further upside price action, to BITSTAMP:BTCUSD historical highs.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Pandorra
3
CYBIN - The Mushroom Long Term Play Amidst my re-evaluation of markets, divestment from crypto, and future planning, I'm slowly building a long term position in CYBIN. As a therapist who also happens to be a fan of psychedelics, this one fits me well. I think it can continue to flounder around, and perhaps test some even lower levels. Just looking for optimal entry points now, and managed to scoop some up the other day at $0.50. Over the next 10 years, I think the psychedelic mushroom industry will be an interesting place for growth. Screw tech. Mushrooms all the way! And not just the magic ones. I'll be on the lookout for other companies as well, and should probably devote some more time to research. I placed some theoretical targets for this, since the company is currently valued just under $100M. I think $3 Billion is fairly conservative, hence the $15 target. This is meant for speculation only, and not as financial advice. -Victor Cobra
AMEX:CYBNLong
by VictorCobra
4
HOW-TO Discover and Harness the Potential of the Dividend MarketDividend Market as well as Dividend futures trading shines bright, in accordance with CME Group @CME_Group Q3'23 Equity Insights Report. Dividend futures combined Q3 ADV reached 5.1K contracts, and OI averaged 284K contracts (+5% vs. Q2 2023). Over 77K contracts have traded since the launch of Annual Dividend Index futures on Nasdaq-100 NASDAQ:NDX and Russell 2000 TVC:RUT , which allow market participants increased options to manage U.S. dividend risk, especially as year end approaches. Understanding Dividends and Dividend Market 👉 A dividend is the distribution of corporate earnings to eligible shareholders. 👉 Dividend payments and amounts are determined by a company's board of directors. Dividends must be approved by the shareholders by voting rights. Although cash dividends are common, dividends can also be issued as shares of stock. 👉 The dividend yield is the dividend per share, and expressed as a percentage of a company's share price. 👉 Many companies - constituents of S&P500 Index DO NOT PAY dividends and instead retain earnings to be invested back into the company. 👉 The S&P500 Dividend Points Index (Annual) tracks the total dividends from the constituents of the S&P 500 Index. The index provides investors the opportunity to hedge or take a view on dividends for U.S. stocks, independent of price movement. The index resets to zero on an annual basis. 👉 Using the S&P500 Dividend Point Index (Annual) as the underlying in financial products, investors can hedge or gain exposure to the dividend performance of the S&P500 Index. Representation of S&P500 Dividend Points Index (Annual) over the past 5 years. Dividends points are to be collected through the calendar year, and reset to Zero on an annual basis Understanding S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures 👉 The S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures CME:SDA1! calculates the accumulation of all ordinary gross dividends paid on the S&P500 index constituent stocks that have gone ex-dividend over a 12-month period. The amounts are expressed as dividend index points. 👉 The underlying index for S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures is the S&P500 Dividend Index. The methodology for the index can be found here at S&P Global website. 👉 Dividend index points specifically refer to the level of index points that are directly attributable to the dividends of index constituents. They typically only capture regular dividends and calculate this on the ex-date of the respective constituents within each index. 👉 In general, “special” or “extraordinary” dividends are not included as dividend points in the respective annual dividend indices. 👉 Futures contract Unit is $ 250 x S&P 500 Annual Dividends Index. The Universe of S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures with expirations dates over the next several years Understanding the Difference between 'Today' and 'Tomorrow' using S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures, or what is CME:SDA1! and CME:SDA2! Futures contracts 👉 CME:SDA1! is a Front S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures contracts, that calculates expected dividend index points for current (in this time - 2023) calendar year. 👉 CME:SDA2! is a Next one S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures contracts, that calculates expected dividend index points for the next one (in this time - 2024) calendar year. 👉 The difference (futures spread) between front and next one can give an expression to traders and investors. 👉 Macro conditions are good, and U.S. economy is doing well, so futures spread values are below Zero (expected dividend points for next year are bigger rather current). 👉 Macro conditions are bad and U.S. economy is getting worst, so futures spread values are above Zero (expected dividend points for next year are lower rather current). 🤝 Happy Dividend Market Trading to Everyone! Enjoy!
CME:SDA1!Education
by Pandorra
AGAL.N0000Daily candles trading above 200EMA line. This is a good sign for AGAL. Buy Zone - 27 - 29 SL - 24 Resistance around 38 to 40 Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
CSELK:AGAL.N0000Long
by rukshan2102
AGPL.N0000Breaking to upper side from falling wedge pattern. Buy Zone - 7.4 to 7.6 SL - 7.2 Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
CSELK:AGPL.N0000Long
by rukshan2102
THREE WORDS THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW — TNX GOES NUTS!Bank of America says the recession and credit crunch could lead to large corporate defaults. Credit strategists at Bank of America note that the fallout from the recession and credit crunch could see $1 trillion in corporate debt eventually become insolvent. This is largely due to the fact that banks have already begun to refuse lending conditions after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. US debt growth has also slowed in recent years, and a "full blown" recession has yet to be officially declared. If a full-blown recession does not occur in the next year or two, the restart of the credit cycle will be delayed. For now, analysts still predict that a moderate/short recession is more likely than a full blown recession. Markets are increasingly nervous about the prospect of a future downturn, with the New York Fed's Recession Probability Index projecting appr. 70 percent chance of a recession hitting by April 2024. The risk comes from the Fed's aggressive 21-fold increase in interest rates over the past 15 months to tame inflation. The US Federal Reserve, having fired a lot of "HIKE RATE" ammos over the past two years. And certainly has fulfilled its goals. In fact, in the second quarter of 2023, the rolling 12-month growth rate of the Consumer Price Index (April value = 4.9%) was below the Core CPI (April value = 5.5%). In human words that means prices of food and energy are deflating year-over-year. To some extent, the risk is also heightened by the recent banking turmoil, as lenders suffer losses on their "HELD-TO-MATURITY" (and in fact "READY-TO-SELL") portfolios of long-term corporate bonds and US Government bonds, as well as in due to a sharp outflow of deposits. The technical picture in TVC:TNX says the key trend is still strong, thanks to tailwinds from the first quarter of 2022 and support of Weekly SMA(52). The second half of 2023 is off to an interesting start. High quality "AAA" 10-year Bond' yield is back to pain levels corresponding to the collapse of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange last fall, as well as the collapse of regional and cryptocurrency banks as early as this spring, 2023 (like SVB, FRC and others). At the same time, real (that is, minus inflation) rates are now certainly much higher, against each of those two marks, as inflation is down.
TVC:US10Y
by Pandorra
2
Why everyone is probably wrong - Part IVAnd why the stock market is about to melt up. The majority of market participants are bearish. From hedge fund managers to popular media outlets, everyone is calling for the crash of a lifetime. The above weekly chart tells a fascinating story. Could talk about it for hours. There are three line charts here. From top to bottom, 1) The Put / Call ratio. This is the number of Put contracts open. i.e. folks who are ‘short’ on the stock market. That includes Dr Michael Burry. 2) The S&P 500 index 3) The Put / Call Relative Strength Index Never in history have so many market participants been this bearish as is shown on the Put/Call chart (1). Am forever writing in the ideas I publish, 90% of market participants will lose money. This chart is screaming why the majority are about to be caught out.. Breaking it down.. A) Bearish divergence between the Put/Call ratio (1) and RSI (3) following an extreme overbought condition. Look left. Not only is the divergence confirmed lower highs are printing. B) Price action resistance breakouts. C) The stock market has ripped higher when the Put/Call ratio corrects. I know, this time is different ;-) Is it possible this is meaningless gibberish flying in the face of the economic fundamentals? For sure. Is it probable the market rips to new all time highs? Yes. Ww
CBOE:PUT
by without_worries
🔝 Nasdaq-100 Index: The House of Rising SunThe History is happening right here! ✨ Nasdaq-100 Index NASDAQ:NDX just set its Best First Half in almost 40 years since inception in 1985, with amazing 38.75% year-to-date return in 2023. Among all semi-annual results, Nasdaq-100 gain this year is second only to the year of 1999. With historical 61.44% gain in the second half of 1999, glory times shortly ended. Just two months later in the 1st quarter of 2000 index peaked at 4816.15, for the next 15 plus years. As 38.75% surge in 2023 still far away from the All-the-history record 61.44% in 1999, stocks feel this year like they are, as the great 1960's band "The Animals" said, in the House of the Rising Sun. They won the race, and closed the 1st half of the year with solid gains. Let's take a look and congratulate the winners of the race! ✨ 🥇 The 1st place - Nvidia Corporation, 184.84% YTD return NASDAQ:NVDA Nvidia is the clear winner in the AI arms race so far. It's the company that appears best positioned to dominate the burgeoning sector, and more and more investors continue to wake up to the potential of artificial intelligence. Nvidia effectively provides a one-stop shop for what customers need to drive their AI ambitions. They control their entire ecosystem on both hardware and software, similar to Apple, and that puts them years ahead of competitors. 🥈 The 2nd place - Meta Platform Incorporation, 133.66% YTD return NASDAQ:META Meta Platforms stock jumped this year after the tech giant's first-quarter earnings beat Wall Street's expectations. CEO Mark Zuckerberg also touted the tech giant's AI plans, and pledged to keep costs low as the owner of Facebook, WhatsApp and Instragram continues its "year of efficiency." In a post-earnings call, Mark Zuckerberg hailed the company's AI efforts and vowed to keep a lid on spending. The Meta founder and CEO said AI recommendations had led to people spending over 24% more time on Instagram since it launched TikTok rival Reels. 🥉 The 3rd place - Tesla Incorporation, 120.88% YTD return NASDAQ:TSLA Tesla's stock price has been rallying non-stop for months - and Wall Street is starting to ponder whether that breakneck surge might've made the EV stock a little overvalued. Shares have jumped 57% since late April, with investors cheered by CEO Elon Musk signing charging deals with Ford and GM, while Big Tech stocks have also soared more broadly thanks to the rise of AI as an investment theme. The stock just has settled its best two-quarter advance since 2020. But Barclays, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs have each questioned that valuation over the past two weeks, with all three banks slashing their Tesla rating from "buy" to "hold". Unprecedented dominance It's historically rare for a handful of stocks from the same sector to make up such a large part of the S&P500 ( SP:SPX ). The last time the five biggest companies by valuation accounted for a quarter of the index's total market cap was indeed the 1960s.
NASDAQ:NDX
by Pandorra
2
Jingle Bulls: Analyzing the E-mini S&P 500's Year-End RallyIntroduction The Santa Claus rally, a well-documented phenomenon in the financial markets, particularly in the context of the E-mini S&P 500, presents a captivating study of market behavior during the holiday season. This rally, often characterized by an uptrend in the stock market, offers a confluence of joy and opportunity for traders and investors alike. Our extensive analysis will delve deep into the intricacies of this phenomenon, unraveling its significance in the broader market context. Current Market Overview Over the past two decades, the E-mini S&P 500 has often mirrored the festive spirit with its performance during the Santa Claus rally. A close examination of the rally's seasonality since 2006 paints a picture of resilience and optimism, with only a handful of years bucking the trend. This pattern sets a compelling backdrop for our current year's analysis. Technical Analysis of the Santa Claus Rally The preliminary signs of the Santa Claus rally begin to surface as autumn wanes. The technical indicators in November, particularly the moving averages, RSI, and MACD, provide a glimpse into the market's preparatory phase for the rally. This early analysis is critical in setting expectations and understanding the underlying market sentiment. December's arrival marks the acceleration of the rally. The daily timeframe charts during this month are a testament to the burgeoning bullish sentiment, with technical indicators aligning to confirm the trend's strength. A broader perspective is gained through a weekly timeframe analysis, which smoothens out the daily volatilities and provides clarity on the rally's sustained nature. The monthly timeframe charts link the current rally to the historical market cycles, offering a comprehensive view of the rally's significance in the long-term market trends. Historical Context and Comparative Analysis The Santa Claus rally, particularly in the E-mini S&P 500, is not a recent phenomenon. Historical data dating back over the past two decades reveals a pattern of consistent end-of-year rallies. Analyzing these instances, we find that in 14 out of the last 18 years, the E-mini S&P 500 experienced a significant uptick during this period. Notably, the failed rallies often coincided with broader market stressors or significant global events, offering insights into the rally's sensitivity to external influences. This comparative analysis underscores the rally's reliability but also highlights its exceptions, reminding traders that historical patterns do not guarantee future outcomes. Economic Indicators and External Factors The Santa Claus rally in the E-mini S&P 500 doesn't occur in isolation. It is influenced by a myriad of economic indicators and external factors. Key among these is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which can significantly sway market sentiment. Inflation rates, employment data, and GDP growth figures also play a crucial role in shaping the market's direction during this period. On a global scale, geopolitical tensions and international trade relations can impact investor confidence, thereby affecting the rally. This interplay of factors necessitates a vigilant approach to market analysis, recognizing that the Santa Claus rally is as much about economic fundamentals as it is about seasonal trends. Market Sentiment and Trader Behavior The psychology driving the Santa Claus rally is a fascinating aspect of this phenomenon. During this period, a general sense of optimism pervades the market, often leading to increased buying activity. For many traders, this rally represents a culmination of the year's trends and a final push for year-end profits. However, this optimism needs to be tempered with caution. The rally can sometimes lead to overexuberance, resulting in inflated asset prices and increased volatility. Traders should be aware of the potential for a market correction following the rally and should approach trading during this period with a balanced mindset, combining optimism with risk awareness. Trading Strategies and Risk Management Navigating the Santa Claus rally requires tailored trading strategies and effective risk management. Traders might consider positioning themselves to capitalize on the expected uptrend, but with safeguards against unexpected market shifts. Utilizing stop-loss orders and setting clear profit targets can help in managing risks. Diversification across asset classes may also provide a buffer against potential volatility within the E-mini S&P 500. Additionally, traders should stay attuned to market indicators and news, as these can provide early signals of changes in the rally's trajectory. Ultimately, a disciplined approach, balancing the eagerness to exploit the rally with prudent risk management, is key to navigating this period successfully. Conclusion The Santa Claus rally, particularly in the E-mini S&P 500, offers a microcosmic view of the broader market dynamics at play during the year's end. This phenomenon, while rooted in historical patterns and influenced by a blend of economic indicators and market sentiment, requires a nuanced understanding and a strategic approach. As we close the chapter on another year's rally, traders are reminded of the constant interplay between market optimism and the reality of economic fundamentals. The insights gleaned from this analysis not only shed light on the rally itself but also serve as a guiding framework for navigating future market movements with agility and foresight. CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by traddictiv
TPL.N0000Buy zone and Strong Support zone mentioned in above chart. Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
CSELK:TPL.N0000Long
by rukshan2102