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What's a Tea! Fed Policy Expectations Plunge Gold to Key SupportGold declined marginally by 3% in September hitting its major support of 52 weeks SMA, in the face of higher long term Treasury yields TVC:TNX and a stronger Dollar index TVC:DXY . Sentiment remained weak for most of the month as ETFs continued to lose AUM while COMEX managed money net long futures positions fell to a five month low previously in August 2023. 👉 Since July, long-dated yields have risen faster than short-dated yields, meaning the yield curve is exhibiting a "bear steepening", something often seen during a reflationary or early business cycle period. 👉 Following this thesis, lets compare 13-Weeks Treasury Bills Yield CBOE:IRX.P that jumped in 3 months from 5.150 to 5.330 only, and 10-Years Treasury Notes Yield TVC:US10Y with gains from 3.820 to 4.630 at the same time. 👉 While gold tends to underperform risk assets during these periods, it is not common to see bear steepening this late in the business cycle and recent moves in yields may be masking other factors at play, such as higher risk premiums 👉 Soft US economic data suggests also that a slowdown is still likely, which, alongside a potential change in the shape of the yield curve, could signal an environment where gold has historically performed well. Yields take center stage 👉 August and September were challenging for gold. After dipping below US$1,900/oz, it staged a late recovery – around the Fed’s Jackson Hole annual symposium, than turned more down after Fed's September Meeting to finish September down approximately by 3 per cent. 👉 The US Treasury yield curve is arguably the most important financial indicator around, and its trajectory and shape are constantly under scrutiny. Most of the time (90%) it slopes upward as investors need to be compensated for lending their money for longer. But at these times, it inverts. As it has since July 2022, suggesting bond market participants are waiting Fed's monetary policy tightening continuation. Lets Compare Gold Spot in U.S. Dollars (RHS) vs. 6-Months Fed's Policy Expectations based on Jun'24 30-Days Federal Funds Futures CBOT:ZQM2024 (LHS) Gold Spot in U.S. Dollars (RHS) vs. 12-Months Fed's Policy Expectations based on Dec'24 30-Days Federal Funds Futures CBOT:ZQZ2024 (LHS) What’s next 👉 In summary, the move in the 10-year yield can likely be attributed to three main factors. A shift up in the ‘higher interest rates for longer’ narrative, supply and demand forces and a rise in the risk premium. 👉 The latter factor might start to provide support to gold prices, if it continues to increase from its key support of 52W SMA. 👉 If we simply look at bear steepening, gold tends to underperform – with low single digit average returns. Historically, the most likely successor to a bear steepening is a bull flattening (approx. a third of the time). This is characterized by a fall in the long end of the curve relative to the short end, effectively an unwinding of the rising premia we’ve witnessed. 👉 This partly took place at the latter end of September with gold likely benefitting from such yield declines. Also, soft data continue to suggest that a slowdown is still firmly on the cards. This could result in either a bull steepening or a rare "bear-". Both phases have on average been gold friendly, yielding an annualized return of 15% – the highest of all the phases. Gold Market Breath 👉 What is Market Breath overall? 👉 Market Breath is a Percentage of Index Components Trading Above their N-Period Moving Average. 👉 Traders can use this index to see what percentage of index components are trading above their N-period moving average, for example, above the 200-day moving average. 👉 A rise above 50% in the indicator indicates increased market strength, while like the index of new highs and lows, traders and investors often look for extreme values to find extreme overbought and oversold conditions in the broader market. 👉 Gold Market Breath Indicator INDEX:YATH (number of S&P/TSX Global Gold Index TSX:TTGD above 200-Day SMA) is at 2.43, that is one of the lowest multi year readings . In conclusion, there are some reasonable considerations for further Gold spot purchases following the thesis that 52W SMA is a strong support for Gold in 2023, and further Fed's Policy expectations for upcoming 2024 are fully in the hands already.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by PandorraResearch
5
LDEV.N0000Having a resistance on 200 Daily MA and support around 50 Daily MA. Closely monitor two buy zones. Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
CSELK:LDEV.N0000Long
by rukshan2102
GRAN.N0000There is a gap in above chart. There is a possibility that gap will be filled in near future. Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
CSELK:GRAN.N0000Short
by rukshan2102
🏘 Housing Bubble v 2.0: What Does It Mean for US Stock MarketMuch to the chagrin of would-be homebuyers, property prices just keep rising. It seems nothing - not even the highest mortgage rates in nearly 23 years — can stop the continued climb of home prices. Prices increased once again in July, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index , with 19 out of 20 markets measured showing month-over-month gains. In another reflection of ongoing increases, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says more than half of U.S. metro areas registered home price gains in the second quarter of 2023. So much for the idea that a "housing recession" would reverse some of the outsized price gains in homes. The U.S. housing market had finally started slowing in late 2022, and home prices seemed poised for a correction. But a strange thing happened on the way to the housing crash: Home values started rising again. NAR reports that median sale prices of existing homes are near record highs. Home prices in August 2023 rose 3.9 percent year-0ver-year to reach $407,100 — near the all-time-high of $413,800, and only the fifth time any monthly median has eclipsed the $400,000 mark since NAR began keeping records. The housing recession is essentially over, or has just began!? Home values have held steady even as mortgage rates have soared past 7 percent, reaching their highest level in more than 20 years in August. The culprit is a lack of housing supply. Inventories remain frustratingly tight, with NAR’s August data showing only a 3.3-month supply. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rates Turn Higher, as 200-Month SMA Key Resistance was broken earlier in 2022. Average Annual Mortgage Interest. 30 000 U.S. Dollars Rubicon is at the hands. After the Federal Reserve’s meeting in June, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters he was keeping a close eye on the housing market. "Housing is very interest-sensitive, and it’s one of the first places that’s either helped by low rates or held back by higher rates," - Powell said in the press conference. "We’re watching that situation carefully." Housing economists and analysts agree, regardless, that any market correction is likely to be a modest one. No one expects price drops on the scale of the declines experienced during the Great Recession. Is the housing and stock markets are going to crash? The last time the U.S. housing market looked so frothy was back in 2000s. Back then, home values crashed with disastrous consequences. When the real estate bubble burst, the global economy plunged into the deepest downturn since the Great Depression. Now that the housing boom is threatened by skyrocketing mortgage rates and a potential recession so buyers and homeowners are asking a familiar question: Is the housing market about to crash? 5 reasons ("cast in bronze") there will be no housing market crash 1. Inventories are still very low. 2. Builders didn’t build quickly enough to meet demand. 3. Demographic trends are creating new buyers. 4. Lending standards remain strict and impose tough standards on borrowers. 5. Foreclosure activity is muted: In the years after the housing crash, millions of foreclosures flooded the housing market, depressing prices, and it’s nothing like it was two decades ago. Funny, but all of that adds up to the one only consensus: Yes, home prices are still pushing the bounds of affordability. But "Ooh not", this boom shouldn’t end in bust. 😏 History does not repeat itself. But often rhymes. Technical graph for ECONOMICS:USSFHP - U.S. Single Family Home Prices illustrates there has been a while, without new all time highs in Top Four U.S. Stock market indices while Housing Bubble was exist in 2000s. So lets see, will be the same in 2020s or not, while 2023 is a second straight year without new all time peaks in S&P500 SP:SPX , in Nasdaq-100 NASDAQ:NDX , in Dow Jones Index AMEX:DJIA as well as in Russell 2000 Index TVC:RUT
ECONOMICS:USSFHP
by PandorraResearch
Is TSL Stock Worthy Beyond 2025? Let's Uncover That Now, I know what you might be thinking. TSLA has been quite the rollercoaster ride, with its stock price soaring to astronomical heights and then experiencing some sharp declines. But let's not forget the incredible achievements and disruptive innovations that Tesla has brought to the table. From electric vehicles to renewable energy solutions, this company has been at the forefront of revolutionizing multiple industries. Looking ahead, it's crucial to consider some key factors that could shape Tesla's future performance. The electric vehicle market is projected to witness substantial growth, driven by increasing environmental concerns and government regulations. Tesla, being a pioneer in this domain, is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend and maintain its market dominance. Moreover, Tesla's ambitious plans to expand its production capacity, particularly in emerging markets like China, bode well for its long-term prospects. As the company continues to scale up, economies of scale could potentially lead to improved margins and profitability. Additionally, Tesla's investments in autonomous driving technology could open up new revenue streams and solidify its position as a leader in the automotive industry. Now, let's talk about the call-to-action. As traders, it's essential to keep a close eye on the performance of our investments. I encourage you to consider holding onto TSL if it consistently outperforms the SPY ETF (S&P 500 Index). While past performance is not indicative of future results, this metric can serve as a valuable indicator of TSLA's strength relative to the broader market. By closely monitoring TSLA's performance against the SPY ETF, we can make informed decisions about the stock's long-term potential. Remember, investing is all about calculated risks and staying ahead of the curve. If TSLA consistently outshines the broader market, it may be worth considering as a long-term holding in your portfolio. In conclusion, the question of whether TSLA is a stock worthy of holding beyond 2025 is a topic that sparks curiosity and debate. While the future is uncertain, Tesla's innovative spirit, market position, and growth opportunities make it an intriguing candidate for long-term investors. So, let's keep a watchful eye on TSLA's performance and evaluate its potential against the SPY ETF. If it continues to outperform, it might just be the time to consider holding onto Tesla and ride the waves of its future success.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by bryandowningqln
Nvidia (NVDA) -> Path Ahead Is ClearMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️ I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise. This is how you build real long term wealth! In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Nvidia. After Nvidia - just a couple of months ago - perfectly retested the bottom support trendline of the rising channel at the $120 level Nvidia stock pumped more than 300% towards the upside. We do have next resistance coming in at the $600 level and although Nvidia looks quite overextended, I do expect more bullish continuation to retest the upper channel trendline. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy. Keep the long term vision🫡
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by basictradingtv
50
Navigating the S&P500 for different market scenarios ES, SPY, Multi-time frame analysis. Welcome back to another market breakdown. Today, I've got an exciting video for you as I dive into the current state of the S&P 500 and explore various strategies based on different market scenarios. Whether you're an experienced investor or just getting started, this video will help you better understand how to navigate the dynamic world of the stock market. Trade safely, Trader Leo
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn27919176
7
Booking (BKNG) -> Pay Very Close AttentionMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️ I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise. This is how you build real long term wealth! In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Booking Holdings. Almost 10 years ago Booking Holdings stock entered a quite decent rising channel and is currently retesting the upper resistance from which I do expect a minor bearish rejection. I would then look for longs at the $2400 structure zone or the $1900 rising channel support since the overall trend is still quite bullish and I do expect a bullish reversal there. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy. Keep the long term vision🫡
NASDAQ:BKNGShort
by basictradingtv
25
KIOCL - Reached its Previous High with in 1&Half MonthThis NMDC strategy I'm already posted but its hidden due to some TradingView House Rules Violation Please Note this Reached all My targets & also broken previous high (22 months Back high) 💥💹💰💸 Company Name - KIOCL Price - 223.85 % Chg - -0.33 MCap(Cr) - 13,604.51 P/B - 6.80 ROE(%) - -4.87 1 Yr Perform(%) - 14.03 Net Profit(Rs.) - -97 Net Sales(Rs.) - 1,543 Debt to Equity - 0.21 In this channel, I share my expertise in trading strategies, technical analysis, and market trends to help you make informed decisions in your trading ventures. Stay tuned for daily updates, in-depth market analyses, and real-time trading scenarios to witness firsthand how we transform from Zero to Hero in the trading world. My Only aim is to empower you with the knowledge and skills necessary to navigate the complexities of the financial markets successfully. Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only, we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made. Request your support and engagement by liking and commenting & follow to provide encouragement HAPPY TRADING 👍
NSE:KIOCL
by Jagadheesh_JP
SPY (Stocks) looks to continue uptrendTraders, For the last year you have heard me preach this blow-off top. So far, we've nailed it. Today, the FED decided to continue the pause. No surprises here and it turned out to be a non-event in the market. The FED knows that they are "this close" to breaking everything. Macro-economically, we are on the brink of disaster both nationally and globally. Many people know this both logically and instinctively. Still the market will go against all odds and price stocks irrationally. This is happening. And my blow-off top is playing out perfectly! The dollar has had 9 straight weeks of green candles. Time to take a rest. The VIX hit a two year low this last week and remains suppressed. Dollar down + VIX down = Markets UP! Additionally, you can see from a technical perspective indicators that continue to support my blow-off top thesis: Notice Elliot Wave. We are on the final wave now. Notice that trendline (wave 5). We are still above that. Notice Ichimoku cloud is green and beneath us. Notice the 50 candle moving avg below us giving us support. Notice the green area of support below us. I am not telling any one of you that you are wrong if you believe we will eventually go down. I agree with you. But before that? BLOW-OFF TOP! Best in all your trades, Stew
AMEX:SPYLong
by stewdamus
7
Here's What Has to Happen Next Week to Show Us DirectionTraders, Are we going up? Or are we going down? Sigh. This market is exhausting, I know. And once again we are on the brink of decision time for the U.S. market. The dollar is knocking on the door of overhead resistance, if it breaks then we can expect downward movement both in the U.S. stock market and in crypto. But if resistance holds firm, expect weakness in the U.S. dollar to show again. This will be priced into the market positively and you can expect more upward movement both in stocks and crypto. In this video, I will briefly show you the main technical areas we need to continue monitoring next week. Best, Stew
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
Broadcom (AVGO) -> Stronger Than NvidiaMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️ I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise. This is how you build real long term wealth! In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Broadcom. Over the past 12 months Broadcom stock rallied more than 120% towards the upside, following the major hype in the whole semiconductor and AI sector. After this recent pump it is quite expected that we will see a short term correction and if Broadcom retests the previous all time high at $630, this will be a perfectly bullish setup. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy. Keep the long term vision🫡
NASDAQ:AVGOShort
by basictradingtv
30
Intel (INTC) -> Don't Forget This StockMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️ I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise. This is how you build real long term wealth! In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Intel. Looking back at January of 2023 - after a massive dump during 2022 - Intel stock perfectly retested and started to reject a major monthly structure level at the $27 level. With the next clear resistance level being at $46 I am now expecting more upside on Intel stock before we could then see a short term rejection away from the $46 resistance area. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy. Keep the long term vision🫡
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by basictradingtv
38
Apple (AAPL) -> The Company Of The FutureMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️ I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise. This is how you build real long term wealth! In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Apple. Since the beginning of 2019 Apple stock has been trading in a solid rising channel and just recently rejected the support area at the $130 level. Apple also perfectly broke above its previous all time high and is coming back for a retest after which I do expect another bullish rally to retest the channel resistance. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy. Keep the long term vision🫡
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by basictradingtv
30