Nu Holdings (NU) AnalysisCompany Overview: Nu Holdings NYSE:NU , a leading digital bank in Latin America, is rapidly expanding its footprint across the region, leveraging innovative fintech solutions to drive growth in underbanked markets. With a mission to offer simple and accessible financial services, Nu Holdings continues to strengthen its presence, especially in key markets like Mexico and Colombia.
Key Developments:
Expansion in Latin America: Nu has successfully launched checking accounts in Mexico and Colombia, showcasing strong customer demand. The company has attracted $3.3 billion in deposits in Mexico and $220 million in Colombia, underscoring its ability to effectively penetrate new markets. This expansion opens up significant growth potential for Nu, as the digital banking revolution in Latin America continues to gather momentum.
Strong Customer Engagement: Nu's active user base continues to grow, with an impressive record-high activity rate of 83%, marking the 11th consecutive increase in user engagement. This high level of customer activity demonstrates Nu's ability to retain and engage its users, a crucial factor for long-term profitability in the fintech sector.
Accelerating Revenue & Profitability: In addition to customer growth, Nu has shown consistent acceleration in revenue and profitability, solidifying its position as a top contender in the fintech space. The company's unique combination of digital banking services, credit offerings, and low-cost structure sets it apart from traditional banks and other fintech competitors.
Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on NU above the $13.50-$14.00 range, driven by its successful market expansion, strong customer engagement, and accelerating financial performance. Upside Potential: Our price target for Nu Holdings is set at $23.00-$24.00, reflecting its potential for continued regional growth and increasing profitability as it scales operations across Latin America.
🚀 NU—Transforming Banking Across Latin America! #FintechGrowth #LatAmBanking #DigitalRevolution
Stockmarketanalysis
Coinbase (COIN) AnalysisCompany Overview: Coinbase NASDAQ:COIN is one of the largest and most recognized cryptocurrency exchanges globally, offering a wide range of services, from retail trading to institutional crypto solutions. The company has focused on strengthening its position in the crypto ecosystem by targeting both retail and institutional investors.
Key Developments:
Institutional Adoption & BlackRock Partnership: Coinbase’s strategic partnership with BlackRock allows Aladdin clients to access cryptocurrency trading and custody services via Coinbase Prime, which caters to institutional investors. This partnership has the potential to drive significant institutional capital into the platform, thereby increasing transaction volumes and boosting revenue.
Diversification Efforts: Coinbase has successfully reduced its dependence on trading fees by growing its subscription and services revenue, which saw a 34% year-over-year increase in Q2 2023. This revenue diversification helps mitigate the impact of the volatile trading environment often seen in the cryptocurrency space.
Regulatory Compliance: With regulatory scrutiny tightening across the crypto industry, Coinbase’s strong focus on compliance gives it a competitive advantage. As regulatory hurdles increase, the company is likely to capture market share from less compliant competitors, positioning itself as a trusted platform in an evolving regulatory landscape.
Product Innovation: Coinbase continues to innovate with new offerings like the Ethereum layer-2 network and enhanced staking services. These product launches not only enhance Coinbase’s competitive edge but also position the company well for future growth in decentralized finance (DeFi) and staking markets.
Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on COIN above the $180.00-$185.00 range, driven by institutional adoption, diversification of revenue streams, and strong regulatory positioning. Upside Potential: Our price target for Coinbase is set at $370.00-$375.00, reflecting its potential to capture more institutional market share and sustain growth through innovative product offerings.
🚀 COIN—Leading the Way in Institutional Crypto Adoption! #CryptoInnovation #InstitutionalAdoption #CryptoCompliance
#Finnifty LevelsI’ve created a chart highlighting the key support and resistance levels for Finnifty, designed to help traders make informed decisions. These levels provide critical insights for understanding potential price movements, enabling traders to identify ideal entry and exit points.
Use these levels to gain a clearer perspective on Finnifty’s trends and optimize your trades with greater confidence. Remember, these levels serve as guidance, so always combine them with your own analysis and risk management.
Argenx (ARGX) AnalysisCompany Overview: Argenx NASDAQ:ARGX is making significant strides in the field of autoimmune treatments, especially following the FDA approval of VYVGART Hytrulo for chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (CIDP) on June 21st. This approval not only enhances Argenx's product portfolio but also opens up new revenue channels for the company.
Key Developments:
Strong Revenue Generation: Argenx demonstrates a robust global presence with revenue streams across various regions:
U.S.: $407 million
Japan: $20 million
EMEA: $35 million
China: $14 million
This diversified revenue generation helps mitigate regional risks and showcases the company’s ability to penetrate multiple markets effectively.
Upcoming Trials: The company plans to launch four new registration trials by the end of 2024, further expanding its therapeutic offerings. This proactive approach to research and development positions Argenx for future growth and diversification in its product line.
Strategic Collaboration: Argenx's collaboration with Monarch is aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and customer service. This partnership is expected to boost market penetration and strengthen the company's competitive edge.
Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on ARGX above the $484.00-$489.00 range, driven by its recent FDA approval, diverse revenue streams, and plans for further clinical expansion. Upside Potential: Our target for Argenx is set at $740.00-$750.00, supported by the company’s strong market presence and growth initiatives.
🚀 ARGX—Pioneering the Future of Autoimmune Treatments. #Biotech #AutoimmuneTherapy #MarketGrowth
Gold topped $2500 per ounce psychological high. Here's whyThe price of spot gold climbed $2500 per ounce to a new record high, by mid-August, 2024.
The Yellow metal has rallied 21.5% this year, and this is the best result in this time against Top 4 american indices - Dow Jones Industrial Avg (DJIA), SP500 (SPX), Small cap Russell2000 (RUT) and full of tech stocks Nasdaq-100 indices (NDX).
Gold jumped as much as 1.8% on Friday, as investors inflation expectations are still extremely high, and still there're no convincing sign that major Russia - Ukraine conflict as well as Israel - Arab conflict are near to be settled.
Even recent weakness in US labor market and new-home starts fall to the lowest level since 2020 give no power to Federal Reserve (US Central Bank) to cut an interest rate even to 1/4 per cent.
Last 2 years, a lot of banksters forecasted that Fed will cut interest rate.
In fact - it still didn't. Just blah-blah-blah and super-duper AI hype, which based on nothing.
In technical terms, spot Gold breaks its $2500 psychological high, ready to go further, up to 3k.
U.S. Aggregate T-Bond Market. Fears & Greed AwakeningStocks heavily sold off Thursday (again), with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbling nearly 500 points, as investors’ fears over a recession surfaced.
Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction.
After these releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February.
These weak data releases come a day after central bank policymakers chose to keep rates at the highest levels in two decades, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave investors some hope by signaling a September rate cut could be on the table.
Labor situations is on the radars also, as fresh unemployment data expected on Friday, August 2.
The main technical chart is for U.S. Core Aggregate T-Bond Market ETF (AGG), in total return format/
With 11782 total number of holdings, AGG is US bond market in miniature.
Fears & Greed Awakening.
👉 VIX and VXN are sitting closer to their important levels, 20 and 25 points respectively.
👉 VIX to 50-Day VIX SMA ratio has recently jumped above 1.40, and this is the biggest level over the past twelve months.
👉 VXN to 50-Day VXN SMA ratio has recently jumped above 1.40, and this is the biggest level over the past twelve months.
👉 Difference in 20-day stock and bond returns slumped almost to Zero.
Technical observations
👉 AGG technical graph indicates on huge developing Reversed Head-and-Shoulders, with 2-year highs breakthrough.
👉 The nearest target could be considered is multi top, around $108 mark.
👉 In mid- to long term it could be good for stock indices and markets, despite of possible turbulence and seismic activity.
Nvidia - New All Time High Is Coming!Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) can rally another +50%:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After creating an expected correction of about -40%, Nvidia is now almost back to new all time highs, showing no signs of weakness despite the recent tech stock correction. If Nvidia creates a new all time high, it is quite likely that it will rally again, potentially all the way up to $400.
Levels to watch: $200
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Semiconductors vs. Nasdaq: Key Indicator of Tech MomentumIntroduction:
The ratio between semiconductors NASDAQ:SMH and the Nasdaq 100 NASDAQ:QQQ serves as a key indicator of tech sector momentum and near-term risk sentiment. When SMH outperforms QQQ, it signals a "risk-on" environment, reflecting strong demand for semiconductors and overall tech sector health. Conversely, if QQQ outperforms SMH, it suggests a "risk-off" environment, pointing to concerns over weakening chip demand.
Analysis:
Risk Sentiment: The SMH-to-QQQ ratio provides insights into tech momentum. A higher SMH performance often indicates robust chip demand, a positive signal for the broader tech sector. On the other hand, when QQQ outperforms, it signals caution, possibly reflecting waning demand for semiconductors.
Bullish Outlook: Recently, the SMH-to-QQQ ratio has formed a higher low, reinforcing a bullish outlook for semiconductors. This higher low is a positive sign not just for the semiconductor industry but for the broader market as well, as semiconductors often lead market rallies.
Conclusion:
The recent bullish signal in the SMH-to-QQQ ratio suggests tech sector strength, with semiconductors likely leading the way. This is a critical metric for assessing near-term market momentum, so traders should keep a close eye on this ratio to gauge potential shifts in sentiment. What’s your take on this trend? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SMH-to-QQQ ratio and the higher low formation)
#Semiconductors #Nasdaq #TechSector #SMH #QQQ #RiskOn
Nike - Catch this reversal!NYSE:NKE continues its overall uptrend despite the recent drop of -60% to the downside.
All you need in order to catch the reversal of the decade is simply one line: a support trendline. Nike is currently approaching a support trendline, which has been sending prices higher for the past 30 years. Just this fact alone makes me believe that we will see (much) higher prices on Nike over the next couple of weeks and months, but we still need bullish confirmation first!
Levels to watch: $70
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Tesla at a Crossroads: Will It Bounce to $275 or Slide to $202?Tesla’s at a make-or-break moment—are we looking at a nice correction back up to $275, or is it about to drop through the floor to $213, $208, and maybe even $202? If that $208 level doesn’t hold, we’ve got a strong 50% Fibonacci support around $203-$202—but whether it’ll catch Tesla or not is anyone’s guess.
Let’s dive into the key levels to watch and figure out if Tesla’s going to rebound or if we’re in for a deeper slide.
If you found this useful, give it a like, share your thoughts in the comments, and hit follow for more updates. Your support means a lot—after all, I need something to hold me up when Tesla can’t hold $208!
Mindbloome Trader
Bullish on NVDA: Riding the AI Wave!In trading, understanding the probabilities is crucial. By analyzing historical price movements and applying mathematical principles, I can identify high-probability setups on my charts.
This mechanical strategy allows me to make informed decisions about entering long positions on NVDA.
Why probabilities?
They help me navigate the unpredictable nature of the market, ensuring that my trades are backed by solid data rather than just intuition.
Here are some key fundamentals currently supporting a bullish bias for NVIDIA (NVDA):
- Surging Demand for AI Chips: NVIDIA is at the forefront of the AI revolution, with its chips being essential for training large language models and powering generative AI applications. The company has seen a staggering increase in demand for its GPUs, particularly the H100 chip, which has become critical for tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Meta.
- Impressive Financial Growth: NVIDIA's stock has surged over 150% this year, significantly boosting its market capitalization. Analysts expect continued strong revenue growth, with projections estimating a 75% increase in third-quarter revenue to approximately $31.69 billion. This financial momentum reflects the robust demand for its AI-related products.
- Strategic Positioning in Data Centers: As companies invest heavily in AI infrastructure, NVIDIA's GPUs are becoming indispensable for data centers. The projected global capital expenditure on data centers is expected to rise dramatically, benefiting NVIDIA as it supplies the necessary hardware.
- Innovative Developments: NVIDIA is actively developing new AI processors to comply with U.S. export regulations, ensuring it maintains a foothold in critical markets like China. This adaptability positions NVIDIA favorably against rising competition from companies like AMD and Huawei.
- Market Leadership: With its early investments in AI technology and continuous innovation, NVIDIA has established itself as a leader in the AI chip market. This dominance allows it to command premium prices and maintain high profit margins, which were reported at 79.1% in the first quarter of 2024.
These factors collectively create a strong foundation for a bullish outlook on NVIDIA as it continues to capitalize on the growing demand for artificial intelligence technologies.
Join me in this journey towards maximizing our potential gains as we ride the bullish wave!
12M:
2W:
1H:
Energy vs Tech : Analyzing Sector Performance and Market TrendsIntroduction:
The comparison between the energy sector (XLE) and the technology sector (XLK) provides valuable insights into current market trends. As the largest sector in the S&P 500, XLK often serves as a barometer for broader market strength. Conversely, when XLE outperforms XLK, it may signal caution, as XLE's smaller size limits its impact on the overall index.
Analysis:
Sector Comparison: XLK's performance is crucial in indicating market health. When XLK outperforms, it generally suggests a robust market outlook. On the other hand, if XLE starts to outperform XLK, this may indicate potential weakness in broader market conditions.
Inflationary Pressures: This ratio between XLE and XLK also reflects inflationary trends. A strong performance from XLE relative to XLK may signal rising inflationary pressures, which investors should closely monitor.
Charting the Pattern: The energy sector has formed an inverted saucer pattern. A breakout from this pattern could signify a positive upward trend and possibly a return to inflation.
Trade Setup:
Entry Point: Monitor the XLE/XLK ratio for a potential breakout confirmation.
Stop Loss: Consider setting a stop loss below the recent support level identified on the chart.
Target Price: Set a target based on the measured move from the breakout point of the inverted saucer pattern.
Conclusion:
The comparative performance of XLE and XLK offers essential insights into market dynamics and inflationary pressures. Traders should keep an eye on the potential breakout from the inverted saucer pattern in XLE, as it may indicate a shift in market trends. What are your thoughts on this analysis? Share your insights in the comments!
Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the XLE/XLK ratio and the inverted saucer pattern)
#Energy #Technology #MarketTrends #Inflation #XLE #XLK
MercadoLibre (MELI): A Powerhouse in Latin America! MELI is solidifying its position as a dominant player in the e-commerce and fintech markets across Latin America. With Argentina’s economic surge and aggressive expansion in Brazil and Mexico, MELI is poised for significant growth.
📈 Key Highlights:
Economic Recovery in Argentina driving e-commerce activity.
Expansion into logistics and food delivery diversifying revenue streams.
Growing adoption of Mercado Pago enhances its financial ecosystem.
While I see strong fundamentals supporting a buy rating, a 5% drop could offer a better entry point. My fair price estimate is $2,709, based on a 5 year DCF analysis.
Let's keep an eye on the support levels around $1,936 and $1,824.
#MELI #MercadoLibre #Investing #StockMarket #Ecommerce #Fintech #LatinAmerica #GrowthStocks #InvestmentOpportunities #Stocktobuy #Pullback
Domino’s Pizza ($DPZ) Earnings Preview: Breakout or Breakdown?Domino's Pizza ( NYSE:DPZ ) is set to release its Q3 FY2024 earnings on October 10, pre-market, with expectations of an EPS of $3.62 and revenue around $1.1 billion. The stock is currently sitting at the 200-day EMA on the weekly chart, indicating a critical technical range. While market sentiment leans bearish, a surprise in earnings could trigger a sharp move.
Key levels to watch:
Bullish: Target above $445 on a breakout.
Bearish: Watch for a move toward $385 if earnings disappoint.
Implied volatility is currently at 7.5%, suggesting significant potential for post-earnings movement. Stay tuned for the market’s reaction!
#DPZ #Earnings #Options #Investing #Solidified
Intel - Back To A Bullish Market!Intel ( NASDAQ:INTC ) perfectly rejected a major previous support:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After being cut in half multiple times over the past couple of months, Intel finally managed to reverse at a strong previous support level. However market structure is still clearly not bullish and Intel has to break above the next resistance to start creating a new overall uptrend.
Levels to watch: $26, $20
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Nasdaq Ready to Fall==>-5%_-10%The Nasdaq Index started to rise with the help of the " Long Island " upward continuation pattern and made the New All-Time High(ATH) .
The Nasdaq Index is currently near the upper line of the Ascending Channel and has succeeded in breaking the Uptrend line .
Also, Regular Divergence (RD-) between Consecutive Peaks .
I expect the Nasdaq index to fall at least to the Support zone($71.41-$69.18) =🚨 -5% 🚨, and if the support area breaks, we should wait for this index to fall to the Lower line of the ascending channel = 🚨 -10% 🚨 .
Nasdaq Index Analyze (NDAQUSD), Daily frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
SUPERMICRO. BUY WHEN THERE'S BLOOD IN THE STREETS.The worse the market - the greater the opportunity to profit it gives.
This seems to be the credo of contrarian, or counter investing.
Nathan Rothschild, a 19th-century British financier and member of the Rothschild banking family, is credited with saying:
“The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.”
Whether or not Rothschild actually uttered this famous line, it reveals an important truth about betting against market psychology. When prices are falling and markets are shaky, bold contrarian investing can yield big returns.
Key Takeaways
👉 Contrarian investing is a strategy that goes against prevailing market trends or sentiment.
👉 The idea is that markets are subject to herd behavior, fueled by fear and greed, which causes markets to periodically overprice or underprice.
👉 “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful,” said Warren Buffett. This phrase embodies a similar philosophy, perhaps just in a slightly more succinct form.
Historically, market panics can be a great opportunity for cheap investing.
Most d̶u̶m̶b̶a̶s̶s̶ ̶ people want to have ONLY WINNERS in their portfolios, but as Warren Buffett warned, “In the stock market, you pay a very high price for a happy consensus.”
In other words, if the crowd is unanimous in agreeing on an investment decision, it’s probably NOT A GOOD ONE.
Going Against the dumbass Crowd
Contrarians, as the name suggests, try to do the opposite of the crowd. They get excited when a good company’s stock price drops sharply and unfairly. They swim against the tide and assume that the market is usually wrong at both extreme lows and highs. The more prices fluctuate, the more delusional they think the rest of the market is.
Contrarian investors believe that people say the market is going up when and why they are fully invested and have no further buying power.
At that point, the market is peaking and should be going down. When people predict a decline, they are already sold out, and at that point, the market can only go up.
For this reason, contrarian thinking is great for figuring out whether a particular stock has actually bottomed.
Bad times build wealth
😬 Contrarian investors have historically made their best investments during times of market turmoil. During the 1987 crash (also known as Black Monday), the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the US fell 22% in one day.
😬 During the 1973–74 bear market, the market lost 45% in about 22 months.
😬 The September 11, 2001 attacks also caused the market to fall significantly.
I AM CERTAINLY NOT AN ADVOCATE OF VIOLANCE
But the list of facts goes on and on. And these were the times when contrarians found their best investments.
😬 The 1973–1974 bear market gave Warren Buffett the opportunity to buy a stake in the Washington Post Company, an investment that subsequently rose more than 100 times its purchase price. That’s before dividends.
Buffett said at the time that he was buying the company’s shares at a deep discount, as evidenced by the fact that the company could “sell (the Post’s) assets to any of 10 buyers for at least $400 million, probably considerably more.” more." Meanwhile, the Washington Post's market cap at the time was just $80 million. In 2013, the company was sold to Amazon CEO and founder Jeff Bezos for $250 million in cash.
😬 After the 9/11 attacks, the world stopped moving for a while. Let's say you were investing in Boeing (BA), one of the world's largest commercial aircraft makers, during that time. Boeing's stock bottomed out just a year after 9/11, but since then, it has more than quadrupled in the next five years. Clearly, while 9/11 may have temporarily soured market sentiment on the airline industry, those who had done their research and were willing to bet on Boeing's survival were well rewarded.
😬 Sir John Templeton ran the Templeton Growth Fund from 1954 to 1992, when he sold it. For every $10,000 invested, into an A-share fund in 1954 would have grown to $2 million by 1992 with dividends reinvested, or an annual return of about 14.5%.
Templeton was a pioneer of international investing. He was also a serious contrarian investor, buying into countries and companies when, according to his principle, they reached their "POINT OF MAX. PESSIMISM."
Four years later, he sold the stock for a huge profit.
The Risks of Contrarian Investing
While the most famous contrarian investors bet big money, went against the grain, and succeeded, they also did a lot of research to make sure the crowd was wrong.
So when a stock takes a big dive, it doesn't prompt the contrarian to place an immediate buy order, but to figure out what caused the stock to fall and whether the price drop is justified.
Knowing which distressed stocks to buy and sell once the company recovers is a major concern for contrarian investors. This can lead to stocks that deliver much higher returns than usual. However, being overly optimistic about hyped stocks can have the opposite effect.
Final Points.
👉 While each of these successful contrarian investors has their own strategy for evaluating potential investments, they all have one thing in common: they let the market give them deals instead of chasing them.
👉 What's next for Supermicro stock? Who knows, who knows..
It's very individual and depends on what you're looking for... opportunity or denial.
👉 The current 6-month return on investment in Supermicro stock is -58.44% - a pretty rare occurrence for SMCI.
This has never happened before.. even in times of WFC, Covid-19 or smth else.
Indeed, several times 6-months returns were quite negative for SMCI. Then Supermicro shares doubled or even tripled in price in just several next years.
What principle and style of investing do you adhere to?! Please share your comments and feedback in the box below! 👇👇
Google - Textbook break and retest!NASDAQ:GOOGL might retest the previous breakout level before continuing the uptrend.
The entire chart of Alphabet (Google) is green, yet I do expect a (short term) move lower first. For almost a decade, Alphabet has been retesting and respecting a major support trendline before then breaking out of the ascending triangle formation just a couple of months ago. I just expect Alphabet to retrace back to the breakout level before then creating new all time highs.
Levels to watch: $150
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
SPY Advanced Analysis by Deno Trading: What’s Next for the S&P 5Let’s dive into the SPY analysis across multiple timeframes, looking for key insights on where the market could be headed. I’ll break it down step by step so it’s easier to follow along.
30-Minute Chart Overview:
Current Price Action: We’re sitting around $569, and what’s really interesting is that SPY has been consolidating after hitting a recent high of $570. The market is in a bit of a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and we’re right at a pivotal level.
Key Resistance: The $570 - $574 zone is a major resistance level. Every time we’ve tested it recently, we’ve seen the market pull back, indicating strong selling pressure. This zone is critical, and we’ll need to break above it with volume to see any further upside.
Support: On the downside, the first level of support is around $565, followed by $561, which aligns with the 50-period moving average on the 30-minute chart. If the price breaks below this level, we could see further downside pressure.
4-Hour Chart Insights:
Moving Average Support: On the 4-hour chart, we’re seeing strong support at $561, where the 50-period moving average has been acting as a floor for recent price action. As long as SPY holds this level, the bulls still have a chance to regain control.
Potential Bullish Scenario: If the price holds $561 and pushes higher, a break above $574 could take us to new highs for the year, potentially testing levels above $580.
Bearish Case: If we fail to hold $561, I’d expect a move down towards $552, where the next level of support lies. This level has acted as both resistance and support in the past, making it an important area to watch.
Daily Chart Breakdown:
Longer-Term Uptrend: The daily chart shows that SPY is still in a broader uptrend, holding above the 200-day moving average, currently sitting around $552. This level has provided a solid base throughout the year, so as long as we remain above it, the long-term trend remains bullish.
Current Resistance: The $570 - $574 resistance zone is evident here as well. This level marks the highs from September, and breaking it would signal the market’s willingness to push towards $580 and beyond.
Weekly Chart for Perspective:
Larger Timeframe: The weekly chart tells a similar story. We’re hovering around $570, right at a major resistance level. The 50-week moving average, sitting around $512, is well below the current price, suggesting we still have a cushion before a significant breakdown would occur.
What to Watch: If we break $574 on the weekly chart, we could see a massive bullish continuation. However, failure to break this level could lead to a bigger pullback to $550 or even $530 in the weeks ahead.
Conclusion & What I’m Watching:
Bullish Breakout Scenario: If SPY breaks above $574 with strong volume, we could see a rally towards $580 or higher. This would confirm that buyers are back in control.
Bearish Rejection Scenario: On the flip side, failure to break this resistance could lead to a pullback towards $561 or even $552. If we break below those levels, the bearish case strengthens, and we could see further downside.
Final Thoughts:
Right now, we’re at a pivotal point. The next few trading sessions will determine whether we’re gearing up for a breakout or a more significant pullback. I’m watching the $570 - $574 level closely for signs of either bullish continuation or rejection.
Nasdaq - Another +50% From Here!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) just broke out of a major channel:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
It really seems like the Nasdaq is about to repeat the breakout behaviour of 2020. However, last month the Nasdaq showed some significant signs of weakness and vulnerability. The next couple of months will be very decisive, but the past of least resistance still seems towards the upside.
Levels to watch: $20.000, $25.000, $16.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
S&P sets new high but weakness is mountingLast week, the market traded within a narrow range, yet still managed to reach new highs. The bulls remain in control of both the daily and weekly timeframes, although I’m not entirely comfortable with the structure that has developed over the past five days. Most of the growth occurred during extended hours, while during regular trading hours, the market either remained in a tight range or moved downward. This structure is fragile and could easily break, though I’m not ready to call for shorts just yet.
Firstly, it hasn’t broken. We're still in a bullish wave on the daily timeframe — in the past two weeks, none of the days have closed below the previous day's low. Secondly, even if the structure breaks, we should not expect significant follow-through, as the market remains very bullish.
Here's a quick recap of the key points supporting the bullish thesis (you can find the rest in my previous review):
1. The Fed cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, which is positive for both the economy and the stock market for several reasons, such as cheaper borrowing costs.
2. The SPX has reached a new all-time high, which is highly bullish.
3. Both the weekly and daily charts show a strong uptrend.
For the market to reverse, there would need to be a significant shift in sentiment, likely triggered by some fundamental event. From a technical standpoint, the uptrend remains intact as long as the bulls hold the previous major low ( 538 ). Until then, any "red" waves should be viewed as mere pullbacks within the broader upward movement.
MRF Ltd. (NSE: MRF) – Technical Analysis UpdatePattern Formation: MRF Ltd. has been forming a cup-and-handle pattern over the past several months, indicating a bullish continuation. The stock has successfully tested the key Fibonacci retracement levels and is now moving towards potential breakout zones.
Cup-and-Handle Formation:
The rounded cup formed after the stock declined from its peak around ₹150,995 and found support near ₹115,601. The handle has now completed, as the stock consolidated within a falling wedge pattern, building strength for the next leg upwards.
Key Resistance Levels:
Immediate Resistance: ₹144,045 (4.26% upside) – This level aligns with the upper boundary of the wedge pattern. A breakout above this level would signal strength, confirming the end of the handle phase.
Major Target: ₹161,250 (16.54% upside) – This represents the projected target based on the full breakout of the cup-and-handle pattern, leading towards a possible rally to the previous all-time highs.
Support Levels:
Strong Support: ₹133,298 – This aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, where the stock has shown significant buying interest during previous dips.
Key Fibonacci Levels: 61.8% (₹133,475) and 38.2% (₹129,121) act as pivotal zones for any pullback in case of renewed selling pressure.
Volume Profile & RSI:
Volume Analysis: The recent volume spikes, especially during the approach to the wedge breakout, show accumulation, confirming investor confidence.
RSI: The Relative Strength Index is approaching the 60-70 range, suggesting a healthy bullish trend without overbought conditions.
Outlook: If MRF Ltd. breaks out of the ₹144,045 resistance level, it could see a swift move towards ₹161,250, a potential gain of 16.5% from current levels. Traders should look for strong volume confirmation during the breakout for additional momentum.
Risk Factors: If the stock fails to sustain above ₹133,298, there could be a deeper retracement to test lower Fibonacci levels, with downside risks towards ₹129,000-125,000.