Is now the time to buy stock indices?The Russell, and other stock indices, have been in a retrace move since November 2021. High inflation and fears of a predicted recession are the driving force of the current downside.
Is now the time to re-enter equities? Is the retrace move coming to the end? Have the markets found a bottom?
Here are my thoughts...
Fundamental Analysis
Inflation is coming down and seems much more under control. High inflation and rate hikes are no longer a shock to the markets but have become a norm. Obviously, inflation is still high but it does look like it has peaked. The markets are expecting further minor rate hikes to continue to bring inflation down to a more healthy rate.
Last weeks US non-manufacturing PMI figure suggests that the US could be heading into the expected recession - what has been predicted by many over the last 6 months or so could be starting to crystallise. A recession is not a good thing, but recession could be good for the equity markets, as economies will be acting as most analysts and traders have been expecting, which brings some sense and stability to the markets.
Technical Analysis
The retrace move recently found support around a key weekly horizontal level and around the 50.0% Fibonacci retrace level. On lower time-frames, price has closed above a consolidation area. All is marked on the chart above.
Summary
So, going back to my original question... 'Is now the time to buy global stock indices', my answer is 'I don't know', as nothing is certain within the financial trading, no trades or analysis is guaranteed. Saying this though, I went long last Friday based on the analysis in this post. If price does swing lower, my next areas of interest are around 1650 and around the weekly 61.8& Fib level.
Things to beware of are; inflation starting to climb again, a deeper recession than expected. Either of these things (hopefully not both of them!) could bring stock markets lower.
Stockmarketanalysis
DexCom to breakdown?DexCom - 30d expiry - We look to Sell a break of 108.48 (stop at 113.03)
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
A break of the recent low at 108.68 should result in a further move lower. This stock has seen poor sales growth.
Levels above 122 continue to attract sellers.
Our profit targets will be 97.11 and 95.11
Resistance: 118.00 / 120.00 / 125.55
Support: 108.68 / 105.00 / 100.00
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
The Trade Desk approaching critical support.The Trade Desk - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 40.51 (stop at 37.39)
Levels below 42.00 continue to attract buyers.
40.00 continues to hold back the bears.
Daily signals for sentiment are at oversold extremes.
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our profit targets will be 48.31 and 49.31
Resistance: 46.80 / 50.00 / 55.00
Support: 42.50 / 39.50 / 35.00
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
FedEx: Bearish consolidation in short term?Hi everyone!
FedEx's main trend still remains bearish, but in the near term we are following an interesting technical rebound, that said, our guess is that the price action might need some consolidation on the intraday chart with a target 1 around $168.
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CF Industries Holding Analyze!!!🌿CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is an American manufacturer and distributor of agricultural fertilizers, including ammonia, urea, and ammonium nitrate products, based in Deerfield, Illinois, a suburb of Chicago. It was founded in 1946 as the Central Farmers Fertilizer Company.
After growth of about 500%😱 in the last two years, CF Industries Holding has finally exited its ascending channel.
I expect CF Industries Holding to decline to the minimum support zone (about 15% down).
🔅CF Industries Holding Analyze ( CFUSD ) Timeframe 2Days⏰.
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CRM Salesforce.com: Bigger Drop ComingHello friends, today I am completing a technical analysis on the 1M linear scale chart for Salesforce.com ( CRM ), traded on the NYSE.
#CryptoPickk notes the following:
1) Salesforce.com price has been falling month over month, down about 20% from it's all time high price.
2) The price has been supported by a multi-year arc line (in red color). In the past year, the price was supported by a rising trendline (in yellow color), however it broke that support and has potential to fall further.
3) Historically the price has had very large swings as shown in the chart.
4) Based on a Fibonacci Retracement, the price has the potential to touch the 0.236 level around $160-$165, which is also where the price can touch the multi-year arc line. This would be about a 48% drop from the all time high price.
5) There is also a multi-year Bearish Divergence which formed that is also a major reason why a further price drop may be coming. You can see the price has formed HIGH HIGH and RSI and Stoch RSI has formed LOWER HIGH.
6) Keep an eye on the RSI (relative strength index) as it has touched the 49-50 level historically before seeing a bounce. This may be a place to potentially start dollar cost averaging in.
7) This isn't the first time the price has potential to see a sizable drop as it has shown historically that it drops and then recovers.
What are your opinions on this?
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
NFLX | Daily Gap & Go !NFLX has held relative strength for tech stocks. Rising channel on the weekly charts.
Daily Chart has a nice little gap fill retest above $300 into $315; Thus providing a nice move especially if tech catches some love starting the year. Keep in mind earnings on (jan 19th, 2023)
NFLX calls will be looking for weekly or bi-weekly expirations above $295.50. Invalid if we fall under 292.88.
Targets in yellow (300, 303.24, 308.93, 314.72)
PMMP: Breakout With Volume Spike,Sign of Optimism in the Market?Hello Fellow Stock Global Trader/Investor!
Price Action Analysis
PMMP has broken out of the bearish channeling pattern. The breakout accompanies by the Volume Spike and Bullish Marubozu Candlestick. The MACD Indicator made a death cross, signifying a possible upside movement to the target area.
Fundamental Drives
1. Indonesia Ended the Covid Restrictive Policy on December 2022
2. Indonesia's economy advanced by 5.72% YoY in Q3 of 2022, indicating a recovery from the pre-pandemic era.
3. PMMP Target a 25% Revenue Growth By the End of 2023.
All other explanations are presented on the chart.
The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/support area.
"Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put a long or short position on the PMMP"
SPY: Still bearish to 351There is no change to our previous calls on the stock market or Bitcoin. The SPY is breaking down to 351 from its rising wedge on declining volume(yellow). We had a nice spike in sell volume on the breakdown confirming the move for me. We are now in a symmetrical triangle on declining volume(red) getting ready to breakdown to 361 and eventually our 351 target. It may take a couple of weeks to play out but this is my primary perspective. If anything changes or becomes invalidated, I will let you know! I am out of the country and make a video when I get back! I hope you all had a happy new year :)
Buying NOG at trend of higher lows.NORTHERN OIL AND GAS - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 26.36 (stop at 24.95)
Daily signals are bullish.
The trend of higher lows is located at 26.00.
Bespoke support is located at 26.50.
We look for a temporary move lower.
We look to buy dips.
This stock has seen good sales growth.
Our profit targets will be 29.88 and 30.88
Resistance: 32.00 / 33.00 / 34.00
Support: 29.45 / 27.60 / 26.50
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
AAPL: Reversal Pattern, Starting Point of Bearish Trend to $100?Hello Fellow Stock Global Trader/Investor!
Chart Perspective
AAPL has broken out of the substantial support/neckline area. The breakout of the Double Top Pattern could indicate a possible trend reversal. Furthermore, The Trend is moving below the EMA 200 Line, confirming a bearish trend. The MACD Indicator made a death cross, signifying a potential downside movement to the target area.
Fundamental Drives
1. The Easing Covid Policy in China could help spur global economic growth but would also add further inflation to the global economy.
2. The Prolong High Inflation Environment Rate would force the central bank to increase interest rates even further.
All other explanations are presented on the chart.
The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/ resistance area.
"Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put a long or short position on the AAPL"
Fading into Consol primary trend.Consol Energy - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 58.22 (stop at 54.91)
Levels below 58 continue to attract buyers.
The primary trend remains bullish.
There is no sign that this bearish momentum is faltering but the pair has stalled close to a previous swing low of 57.52.
We look for a temporary move lower.
Short term momentum is bearish.
Early pessimism is likely to lead to losses although extended attempts lower are expected to fail.
This stock has seen good sales growth.
Our profit targets will be 66.48 and 68.48
Resistance: 65.00 / 68.00 / 70.20
Support: 60.20 / 58.60 / 57.50
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
WWE - rising channel What we can see on the chart is a strong resistance and a support level that have been tested multiple times before. The lines are forming an upwards channel. The price hit the resistance, so we are expecting that the price will go down.
The stochastic was overbought the previous days, now it is pointing downwards.
How to trade:
Enter the short position only when/if the price breaks down out of the rising channel. Do not forget the stop loss to protect your capital.
Nifty 50 Index fell below major zones The nifty 50 Index fell three consecutive sessions, falling below the 18342 support line around the rising wedge and 18036 critical support zone in Friday's session, as indicated in the price chart. 18036 crucial area is a level to watch, as demonstrated in the past, where it served as support and resistance since October 2021. Bulls will need to reclaim 18036 to re-visit 18342. History could repeat itself if the price fails to hold above 18036
#stockmarket #nifty50 #fundmanagement #technicalanalysis #financialmarkets #financialservices #banking #portfoliomanagement #portfoliomanager #accountmanager #capitalmarkets
Ford: Strong Possibility for a Bounce!Here we are looking at Ford on the daily TF.
As shown on the chart, we are analyzing two supports (which have confluence with one another) which both connect to our downwards sloping resistance (yellow).
It’s important to note that both support lines were previously resistance, but have both served as strong support since Fords breakout (to the upside) in January of 2021.
Currently, Ford finds itself testing support (blue circle). We expect for these two support lines to act as strong support, though we’re ready for a breakdown if it can’t hold.
We will continue to monitor price action, and will follow up on this post when there’s either a bounce or breakdown.
Do you think Ford will hold its supports?
Cheers!