LMND Lemonade Options Ahead Of EarningsLooking at the LMND Lemonade options chain, i would buy the $29 strike price calls with
2022-9-16 expiration date for about
$1.25 premium.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Stockmarketanalysis
MSFT: Investment in stock marketI decide to make an investment in Microsoft stock because it's look bullish from this monthly timeframe. But when we invest in stock, it's very important to read ever fundamental analysis to know what affect the price of a stock. I will trade when market open at Monday, August, 8, 2022. Bought in the market price and my SL will be around $228 USD, and we could to have 2 targets.
One of the best strategy to accumulate money and investing in stock market it's find up 100% of the investent to double x2 yearly. But one of the best it's using asset like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano to accumulate to use one of them using a good crypto-broker like Simple FX, Also, 200% yearly it's a good way, but combining to trade financial market and find up the yearly goal.
I hope that this analysis support you!!!
2008 vs 2022 I found a lot of similarity's between this crash and the 2008 financial crisis stock market crash.
Quick TA summary:
1. We have the same kind of downwards parallel channel
2. The chart of the 2022 crash so far fits pretty well into the 2008 crash, the chart of the 2008 crash fits pretty well into today's chart.
Quick Fundamental summary:
There are so many reasons why the economy could have a meltdown. I wrote about it last year in November in my previous post, but there are other things to talk about now:
1. The FED changing the definition of a recession. The US GDP came in at -0.9% for Q2, which is the second consecutive quarter in a row that the FED published negative GDP growth. Here is how we actually define a recession, like we have always done: "Experts declare a recession when a nation’s economy experiences negative gross domestic product (GDP), rising levels of unemployment, falling retail sales, and contracting measures of income and manufacturing for an extended period of time. Recessions are considered an unavoidable part of the business cycle—or the regular cadence of expansion and contraction that occurs in a nation’s economy". I mean come on guys, these terms/indicators exists so that governments and central banks can change their policy's on time. But instead of actually changing their policy to a recession policy, they simply deny the recession and even try to change the definition of it. We have heard the "this time is different" enough times and it has so far always lead to real problems. This has to do with the fact that there are going to be new elections soon, so denying the recession is a convenient thing for them to do.
2. The biggest drop in Average and Median New US Home prices since 2008.
April Median: $457,000 and June Median: $402,400 this is a decline of 11.95% in the past 2 months.
April Average: $569,300 and June Average: $456,800 this is a decline of 19,76% in the past 2 months.
3. 40% of Americans Are Struggling to Pay Their Bills Right Now.
"More Americans are struggling to pay their bills now more than any other time in 2022 — and possibly even since the pandemic began.For more than 91 million U.S. adults, affording typical household expenses is “somewhat difficult” or “very difficult,” according to data released this week by the Census Bureau.
That accounts for 40% of the Americans who responded to the bureau's survey between June 29 and July 11. (If you include folks who took the survey but did not respond to that particular question, the portion is 36%.)"
4. Unfortunately inflation is not coming down, even though the FED is raising it's interest rates pretty aggressively. They told us that inflation was going to be temporary, but it wasn't. They have clearly underestimated the situation.
5. 80% of all US dollars in existence were printed in the last 22 months (from $4 trillion in January 2020 to $20 trillion in October 2021 (honestly what were they thinking, this isn't monopoly guys...)
6. US OIL en UK OIL have both dropped below $100. Every time this has happened we have gone into a recession, and most of the time the stock market had pretty significant losses.
Gasoline prices are still abnormally high, as you noticed when you are refilling your car with fuel.
7. A lot of company's have been beating their EPS lately. However the expectations for EPS are like half of what the company's had been reporting from 6 to 9 months ago.
8. We are heading into September next month, which is statistically the worst month for stocks. The biggest crashes have happened in November. PE ratio's are still high so they have to come down.
As of 4:00pm EDT Fri Aug 5, The current Shiller PE Ratio is 31.10.
Mean: 16.96
Median: 15.88
As you can see we still have a long way down to go...
9. Food shortages for the following products:
(1). Chickpeas
2. Wheat
3. Sugar
4. Avocados
5. Paper Goods
6. Canned Goods
7. Eggs and Meat
8. Pet Food
9. Baby Formula
10. Liquor
Why Are These Items in Short Supply?
"It’s because of labor shortages and supply-chain issues, from food manufacturers to grocery stores. There simply aren’t enough people to “make the goods, move the goods and sell the goods,” says Jim Dudlicek, a representative for the National Grocers Association. According to Parade, the recent invasion of Ukraine by Russia plays a role, with supply chains from Europe heavily disrupted. Labor shortages also continue, with people still out due to COVID-19 or resigning due to low wages and poor work conditions.
In addition, supply is affected by more people cooking and eating at home, a trend that started at the onset of the pandemic. “Demand has been very, very high,” Denis says. Still, she doesn’t think there’s a reason for people to stockpile. She pointed to lumber as an example of a product that was extremely hard to get for a while, but has become more plentiful in recent months, and the food supply chain likely will rebound in a similar fashion, although it may take time."
10. Micheal Burry wrote: "Dead cat bounces are the most epic.
12 of the top 20 nasdaq 1-day rallies have happened during the 78% drop from 2000's top.
9 of the top 20 S&P500 1-day rallies happened during the 86% drop from the 1929 top.
Micheal Burry also wrote:
RE: paradigm shifts/speculative peaks, the SP500 bottomed 13% lower than 2002's bottom in 2009,
17% lower than 1998's LTCM crisis low in 2002, and 10% lower than 1970's low in 1975.
15% lower than the COVID low is SPX at $1862. - Shiller PE of 16, nominal PE of 9. In historic range.
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPXUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 45% SPX, 55% Cash. * JOBS REPORT WATCH . The Employment Situation is released tomorrow (08/05) at 830am (EST) and markets seem to be rallying as if unemployment is going to stay flat or go up insignificantly. If this scenario plays out, it will be interesting considering labor force participation continues to trend down from March , weekly jobless claims went up , there's been a notable increase in layoffs over the past few months and many corporations announced they are going to slow hiring through the end of the year. Equities continue their rally with the S&P posting its biggest bounce of the year (13%) since its June 16th low, reflecting that consumer sentiment regarding inflation, supply chains, FFR and Russia/China is very optimistic heading into 2023. Yesterday, OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 100,000bpd starting in September, compared to the ~600,000bpd increases in July and August this sent the price of Oil back up heading into September; which is likely to result in more inflationary pains for consumers. Taiwanese news agencies have reported that China has been conducting the closest military drills yet and have launched a record number of cyberattacks at Taiwan since Pelosi's visit . Blackrock will be offering crypto to their ~200 institutional investors through Coinbase Prime and Coinbase partnered with Meta to allow for NFTs to be shared on Instagram from Coinbase Wallet ; both of these reports sent COIN up 45% in today's session and probably made Cathie Wood shite her pant$ after selling 1.133m shares at ~$55 last week (Price is currently ~$88). The Atlanta Fed released their third Q3 GDP estimate and it came in higher than the last going from 1.3% to 1.4%. Apparently today the White House joined the WHO in labeling Monkeypox a public health emergency . Key dates: July Jobs Report at 830am (EST) 08/05; July CPI at 830am (EST) 08/10; 4th Atlanta Fed Q3 GDP Estimate 08/10; July PPI at 830am (EST) 08/11.* Price is currently testing $4175 resistance as it awaits the Jobs Report tomorrow morning. Volume remains Moderate (high) and has favored sellers in two of the past three sessions, indicating that $4175 resistance is seeing quite a bit of selling pressure. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at ~$4k (-3% from current Price), this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is trending down slightly at 65 after forming a peak at 66, this is currently exhibiting mild Bearish Divergence from Price; a potential Double Top formation is also forming just below 68 resistance which is something to watch for. Stochastic remains bearish but is currently attempting to cross over bullish at 93; the next support is at 76. MACD remains bullish for the 41st consecutive session and is currently trending up at 65 with no signs of peak formation; it is still technically testing 55 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending up at 22 as price pushes higher, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to break above $4175 resistance then it will likely retest the 200 MA + the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$4300 . However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely retest $4100 before potentially retesting the uptrend line from 06/16/22 at $4k psychological support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $4175.
The deal closed ELA in US stock market with profitAlhamdulillah , The deal was closed on ELA in US stock market with a profit of 13.45 % in a 2 days . I wish good luck to everybody.
Buy WRB in US stock market 4/8/2022You can buy it Target 64.79 and 68.36 stop loss 59.8 money management is your responsibility I recommend entering a maximum of 10% of the portfolio. good luck
Buy PGR in US stock market 3/8/2022You can buy it Target 121.24 stop loss 109.54 money management is your responsibility I recommend entering a maximum of 10% of the portfolio. good luck
Buy ELA in US stock market 3/8/2022You can buy it Target 7.83 stop loss 6.5 money management is your responsibility I recommend entering a maximum of 10% of the portfolio. . good luck
$MNDT Outpaces its Sectorial Peers The technology sector has played a leading role in powering the market's gains over the past couple of decades. Tech's ability to shape almost every industry means the sector remains one of the best starting places for investors seeking big gains, even during this bearish market.
My top pick for this sector is MNDT, a cybersecurity disruptor that is a winner for your growing portfolio today. As seen in the chart, MNDT (+31.94% YTD) is far-outperforming its sectoral peers as tech has taken a double-digit tumble in recent months. For instance, mega cap tech companies such as MSFT (-17.90% YTD), APPL (-12% YTD) and GOOGL (-20.60% YTD) have all underperformed relative to MNDT. This is the case too for FTNT, a fellow cybersecurity player, which has registered a 9% decline YTD despite outpacing the broader tech sector as a whole. Sectoral cybersecurity ETF’s like BUG (-16%), XLK (-18%) and CIBR (-18%) also lag far behind MNDT’s YTD gains. Relative to QQQ, MNDT has outpaced the Nasdaq baseline by some 50%, indicating just how bullish this stock is against the backdrop of an ongoing bear market.
The deal closed OXY in US stock market with profitAlhamdulillah , The deal was closed on OXY in US stock market with a profit of 7.54 % in a 4 weeks . I wish good luck to everybody.
The deal closed HII in US stock market with profitAlhamdulillah , The deal was closed on HII in US stock market with a profit of 4.9 % in a 2 weeks . I wish good luck to everybody.
Is the S&P 500 DOWNTREND OVER? The price is moving according to my last analysis on July 29th of the S&P 500 Futures. The market is taking a breath from last week, yesterday it closed more or less at that support area of $4100.
We still have some important earnings incoming, I stick with my point that we can use the momentum to get to $4200 or even higher. However, in order to break this DOWNTREND, we need to get above $4500 and maintain.
I'm not going to spend time talking about breaking the resistance of $4500 , as I see it extremely unlikely to happen.
During the next few days, the market can decline till $3950 support , in order to get some volume and make new higher highs around $4200 .
The economic environment is bearish for the stock market, unless the FED decides to decrease interest rates and start printing again, avoiding fighting inflation, destroying the currency as a result.
The scenario that I think is going to happen is that we will continue the downtrend that started in the beginning of the year 2022.
From my humble opinion, this was just one more rally in a bear market, maybe a bull trap that can last a few weeks more.
I see the market between a range of $2800-$3500 till the end of the year, unless something big happens and reverses the downtrend.
Honestly, I think they are just trying to keep the market up the longer they can, in order to sell their balance sheet at higher prices, starting from September.
This thing can reverse in every moment, or it could continue to be bullish the next trading sessions. Better wait to trade to the downside till some clear reversal appears .
Good luck with your investments.
Earnings Releases to keep an eye on:
- Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Occidental (OXY), BP (BP)
- AMD (AMD)
- Starbucks (SBUX)
- Caterpillar (CAT)
- PayPal (PYPL)
- Gilead (GILD)
- Airbnb (ABNB)
- Marriott (MAR)
- Uber (UBER)
- Electronic Arts (EA)
- Waste Connections (WCN)
- Illinois Tool Works (ITW)
- Cummins (CMI)
- IDEXX (IDXX)
$BABA Is Alibaba Ready To Be Treasured In Our Portfolios?Traders, Speaking to my of my investor friend in the US around a year ago, I predicted alibaba to fall below 100 and that's when we could get a chance to buy back again. Alibaba $BABA Has been consolidating at the current levels for few months under 100 dollars. Now as it has created a very good pattern inside the bollinger band, this can become a speculative buy in our portfolio again. The risk is limited i.e. stop loss will be below last lowest low and the target much higher giving us very good Reward to Risk.
Possible next move in SPXHi everyone.
Today I'm gonna talk about SPX. In this moments the price have 2 posibilitties:
Option A: We have a double bottom pattern and the price will go to the level of pattern and then we need to wait a intentional canddle who confirms the change pattern. In this point it's good enter to long (more risk)
Option B: The price will go to te resistance and then will fall to the support (here we can enter with a short). In the support we need to wait if the price will go down or bounce to the resistance again
(good opportunity to enter long)
Thanks for read this and leave me a comments or questions and if you like this analysis, follow me.
See you soon !
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPX Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 48% SPX, 52% Cash. * NANCY PELOSI WATCH. S&P Global released their final July US Manufacturing PMI estimate this morning and it came in at 52.2, slightly lower compared to both June's PMI and the consensus estimate of 52.3; this is the lowest it has been since July 2020. The Atlanta Fed released their second GDPNow Q3 estimate today and it came in at +1.3%, down from the initial estimate of +2.1% on 07/29/22. According to Reuters, CNN and 'Taiwanese media', Nancy Pelosi is scheduled to visit Taiwan tomorrow against the wishes of the PRC; though military countermeasures have been promised but are not expected, if this does happen it would surely shake up markets due to the uncertainty regarding how mainland China will respond. Key dates remaining this week: Nancy Pelosi potentially visiting Taiwan tomorrow night (08/02) and speaking to lawmakers and human rights groups on Wednesday (08/03); St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks @ 645pm EST (08/02); Cleveland Fed Loretta Mester speaks 12pm EST (08/03); July BLS Employment Situation @ 830am EST (08/04).* Price is currently facing some selling pressure at ~$4120 as it aims to retest $4175 resistance. Volume is Moderate and on track to favor buyers for a fourth consecutive session if it can close today in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bearish just below the 50 MA at $3900. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 65 after forming a peak at 66 (just below 68.42 resistance); Hidden Bearish Divergence between Price and RSI can be seen from 06/02/22, this is significant due to the potential local Double Top formation. Stochastic remains bullish but is trending down at 98.5 after testing max top for the first time in ten sessions; if it breaks below 93.5 it would be a bearish crossover. MACD remains bullish for the 38th consecutive session and is currently trending up at 49.50 as it approaches 55 minor resistance with no signs of peak formation. ADX is currently trending up at 19 as Price pushes higher, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to push higher then it will likely formally retest $4175 resistance where it may see a bit of selling pressure. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from 06/16/22 as support at ~$4k . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $4175.
Buy AT&T ( T ) in US stock market 1/8/2022You can buy it Target 19.72 and 20.66 stop loss 17.84 money management is your responsibility I recommend entering a maximum of 10% of the portfolio. good luck
Heading for Recession or going higher...analysis and key levelsThere has been a lot of talk of the US heading into recession, and while the Fed and Politicians deny it, most feel that we are already 'in' a recession.
The Fed will of course do and say all they can to keep the stock markets orderly and supported while trying their best to bring down inflation. Key now is to watch inflationary and economic data.
In the video I look at the major stock markets in the US , Europe and Asian...and look at the key levels that I am watching for some action. Technically the Indexes are still in a downtrend but we have seen some buyers go risk on into the end of the month....so the question is will this continue??!!
Tesla showing signs of a possible bullish breakout
TSLA has been consolidating in a very slightly ascending wedge (possibly triangle) after a decent run up & is now currently looking at breaking out & heading for another rally towards a new high, possibly towards that 1k mark before losing steam
Watch for a successful close above the descending resistance for confirmation of successful breakout!
I've added 2 major areas of resistance to be aware of to consider profit taking
Will update as more data is available
*Symbol tags below*
Will be checking the crypto pairs for Tesla soon too ( BTC / USD / USDT / DOGE ) for further breakout signs
NASDAQ:TSLA
CAPITALCOM:TSLA
FTX:TSLAUSD
BITTREX:TSLAUSD
BITTREX:TSLABTC
FTX:TSLABTC
BITTREX:TSLAUSDT
FTX:TSLADOGE
COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD
BINANCE:DOGEUSDT
Nasdaq100 NDX Monthly Close Snapshot
Nasdaq100 index has rallied 12.55% in July to record the best monthly performance since April 2020.
Moreover, bulls have formed a monthly bullish engulfing candlestick - above the 100-EMA support region - to be confirmed by a higher open on Monday.
The positive sentiment is still intact to be challenged by 13,000 - 13,490 supply area.
Meta Platforms (Road Map)!!!🗺️Today, I want to analyze the Meta Platforms.
What are Meta Platforms ❓
Meta Platforms, Inc., doing business as Meta and formerly named Facebook, Inc., and TheFacebook, Inc., is an American multinational technology conglomerate based in Menlo Park, California. The company owns Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, among other products and services.
Meta Platforms are close to the end of main wave A.
I expect Meta Platforms to grow up around the support zone (for the short term).
Meta Platforms Analyze Daily Timeframe (Log Scale /Heikin Ashi)⏰
🟢Support zone🟢: 149$ until 137$
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
55% drop in $METASince last year I haven't seen the $META chart, a few minutes ago I saw the earnings report and I was interested to see how the stock was doing.
Surprise! Since last year I knew the stock was going to drop, just having seen the MA21 was something more than obvious
Fed rates and S&P 500 analysis: A short window to rebound?Following the Federal Reserve meeting, which delivered a back-to-back 75-basis-point rate hike to 2.25-2.5% ( USINTR ), S&P 500 index broke above 4,000 points, marking a 2.6% daily gain, as market expectations pointed to a halt in rate hikes at the end of the year, and a rate cut in the first half of next year.
A window for a "bear market rally" in the S&P 500 could be the case between now and the next September meeting if upcoming economic data indicate a peak in inflation and a weakening labour market. This would bolster the Federal Reserve's soft-landing goal and keep short-term interest rates in check.
First of all, the market is repricing the fear of an impending recession, as the earnings season continues to produce positive results. Second, given the recent negative correlation between short-term rates and the S&P 500 index, a stabilization or even a decline in short-term 2-year Treasury yields would provide further oxygen to the stock-market rebound.
Momentum indicator (14-day RSI) has been hovering above 50 for the past week and is now pointing northward, indicating that bulls are gaining the upper hand in the short term.
4,160 is a short-term technical resistance at the May/June peaks and March 2022 support. A break above this level would pave the way for a 4,300 target (4 May high). A rise to 4,500 (21 April high) seems to be more challenging at this stage.
The alternative scenario, in which inflation data remains higher than expected and Fed representatives remain extremely hawkish, might portray a pullback in the 3,800-3,720 region. However, to revise the S&P 500 ’s year-to-date low ( 3,639 ), it is appropriate to witness a new "rate-shock", with short-term Treasury yields spiking above 3.4-3.5% in response to a Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening bias.
