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SPX500 - Last leg of the corrective rally?OANDA:SPX500USD has started the last leg higher with yesterdays rally confirming it. This is looking like its going to get up to these levels and an ideal scenario would be into next weeks US Interest Rate decision where we see the market start its next leg down. Beyond 4100 and the correction could be over or a higher correction. For now on the Intra-Day im looking for a PB to the 382-50% ret area to get long in aABCD pattern would be ideal. Thoughts for now. Enjoy the day
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by L_F
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPX Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% SPX, 45% Cash. * June Housing Starts came in lower than May (1.591M) at 1.559M and under the consensus estimate of 1.58M, implying that the housing market is starting to cool off as new home buyers appear to be increasingly fearful of a "technical" recession this year. June Building Permits came in fractionally lower than in May (1.695M) at 1.685M and over the consensus estimate of 1.65M, though not as significant of a reduction from the prior month this too is indicative of a housing market cool down in the second half of 2022. Both numbers can still be revised up or down but as it stands now, the demand cool down in the housing market is mildly bullish because it shows that the Fed's hawkish monetary policy is having its intended effect on markets. More clarity will be provided regarding whether or not this points to a recession when the July Jobs report (Employment Situation) is released at 830am (EST) on 08/05/22. Q2 earnings season has gotten off to a bullish start with banks (BOA, Citi) and certain pharmaceutical (J&J) and consumer retail (Hasbro) companies beating estimates but forecasts for the second half of the year remain cloudy. The Senate is scheduled to vote on the CHIPS for America Act today and, with some potential modifications, is expected to pass it by this week or next (if you used the Pelosi indicator congratulations on this one). Russia has apparently been seen restarting gas flows from Russia to Germany (after "scheduled maintenance") via the Nord Stream pipeline but at a reduced capacity; Russia claims that delays in repairs of a turbine sent to Canada are reasons for a 40% cut in capacity but German officials are saying that the turbine is just a replacement part that was supposed to be installed in September. Cryptos, Equities, Oil, Treasuries and the Euro are up today while DXY, VIX and Agriculture are down and Gold is relatively flat. In other news, on Bloomberg TV today, SEC Chair Gary Gensler once again floated the idea of banning payment for order flow and made mention of rampant noncompliance in the crypto industry that will be of chief importance to the SEC in the coming months.* Price is currently testing the 50 MA + lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 as resistance at $3938 minor resistance; additionally, Price closed above the uptrend line from 06/16 (~$3900) which currently gives PA a bullish tilt. Volume remains Moderate and after today's green close has favored buyers in seven of the last ten sessions; this is bullish. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3721, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 55 as it technically tests 53 resistance; the next resistance is at 68. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently testing 76 resistance with no signs of peak formation, the next resistance after that is max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -21 as it approaches a retest of -11 resistance (last time it retest -11 was 06/08); additionally, MACD is on the verge of reestablishing support at the uptrend line from March 2020 (~-35). ADX is currently trending down at 17 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment; if ADX is able to bounce here as Price continues higher, this would be bullish. If Price is able to break above $3938 resistance and turn it to support (it's already breaking above the 50 MA), the next likely target is a retest of $4175 resistance . However, if Price is rejected here then it will likely retest $3707 minor support before potentially heading lower to $3500 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3906.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
be BULLISH on JUBILANT INGREVIA hey guys , JUBLIENT INGREVIA stock is showing bullish signs , This stock was moving in a downtrend for a very long time , but now, through the analysis, i think that this stock is starting to move in a UPTREND the stock was moving in a downtrend , BUT IN A FIXED AREA , and now this stock has crossed it's resistance, and has shown a great bullish candle . there are 2 reasons to buy this stock ; 1. A GREAT BULLISH CANDLE HAS BEEN SEEN ABOVE THE RESISTANCE 2. 20 DAY EMA has CROSSED ❌ the 50 DAY EMA therefore, you can bet on this stock and can try to earn high returns. i have marked the RR RATIO , TARGET AND SL for y'all . BUT PLS CONSIDER THE GLOBAL SITUATION FIRST, 1. INFLATION 2. WAR 3. RISING BANK RATES AFTER CONSIDERING THESE SITUATIONS YOU CAN BUY THIS STOCK JUBULANT INGREVIA 😀😀
NSE:JUBLINGREALong
by TRADERS_AREA
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPX Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 45% SPX, 55% Cash. * US June Retail Sales was reported this morning and beat the consensus estimate (0.8%) by 0.2% coming in at 1%; compared to last month's retail sales number of -0.1%, it's reasonable to suggest that consumer demand is returning after six consecutive months of shrinkage (Jan 2.7%, Feb 1.7%, March 1.2%, April 0.7%, May -0.1%). One of the primary goals of the Fed raising FFR is to temper economic activity (lessen demand). The Fed announced QT and the possibility of rate hikes in December of 2021, what followed was six months of Retail Sales (consumer demand) shrinkage; the Fed didn't start raising FFR until March 2022 and QT began in June 2022, a testament to how powerful even just words from the Fed can be. This is relevant because these are things to consider when determining how far ahead or behind money markets are, and begs the question once again, have financial markets already priced in a recession? It's hard to say when Federal Reserve Governor Waller says he needs to review Retail Sales and Housing Starts before committing to a more than 75bps rate hike on 07/27 , while St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard says that Core PCE inflation hasn't peaked yet but that there isn't too much difference between 75bps and 100bps on 07/27. Equities, Cryptos, and Commodities (aside from Gold, Copper, Palladium, Wheat and Soy) are up; Treasuries, VIX, DXY down. Housing Starts and Building Permits numbers are to be released at 830am (EST) on 07/19.* Price is currently trending up at $3870 and is on the verge of testing the uptrend line from 06/16 at $3880 as resistance after bouncing at $3707 minor support. Volume is currently Low and on track to favor buyers for a third consecutive session. Parabolic SAR at $3938 minor resistance, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 49 after bouncing at 42, the next resistance is at 53. Stochastic is on the verge of crossing over bullish at 37 after bouncing at 25; the next support is at 18 and resistance at 48. MACD is currently trending up at -31 after bouncing at the uptrend line from March 2020 at -37 as support (which is simultaneously reversing a soft peak formation), the next resistance is at -11. ADX is currently trending sideways at 20 as Price is pushing higher, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX was to start trending up with Price this would be bullish, and if it trends down as Price goes up this would be bearish. If Price is able to break above the uptrend line from 06/16 at $3880 , it will be forced to contend with the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance . However, if Price is rejected here then it will likely retest $3707 minor support before potentially retesting $3508 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3938.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
You down with ABC? Yeah, you know me!OK, this is a possibility to be aware of. We still could come down to 3700 or lower tomorrow, but if they rally from anywhere around here (or there), there is a chance we get a sudden C wave up for a few weeks. Sentiment surveys on CNBC have never been more bearish, so there's that - but regardless, the pattern looks correct as of now. So there it is - it may not work out, but I'm putting it up as a distinct possibility. I'm not long, but did hedge this morning. I'll shed shorts if we start getting over 3800 again. If true, C should get to around 4100 resistance area.
EIGHTCAP:SPX500
by the_sunship
3
DXY Daily TA Cautiously BullishDXY Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 75% DXY, 25% Cash. *Demand for USD continues as global recessionary fears amplify and tighter monetary policy pushes investors to short term Treasuries (Yield Curve inversion). The Euro is maintaining parity with the USD for the third consecutive day as Italy's Prime Minister Mario Draghi submitted an offer to resign today . Interestingly, as DXY continues pushing higher to reach levels last seen in 2002 (taking liquidity from Cryptos, Equities and Commodities), markets are currently reacting favorably to Fed Governor Christopher Waller's remarks today about how the markets are "getting a bit ahead of themselves" regarding inflation and that the job market is healthy enough to continue economic expansion. Waller also mentioned that though 75bps is all but guaranteed, he is waiting on June retail sales data ( scheduled for release tomorrow 07/14/2022 at 830am EST ) and housing starts/building permit data ( scheduled for release 07/19/22 at 830am EST ) to determine if demand is still so high that it warrants a full 100bps or more rate hike on 07/27/22. DXY has only traded above $108 in three other periods: 1967-1973 (two recessions 69-70 and 73-75, Nixon "nixed" the Bretton Woods Agreement and Gold Standard in attempt to stimulate the economy and ring in inflation, the third and fourth Arab/Israeli wars, 1973 oil crisis and stock market crash); 1981-1986 (one recession 81-82 after short rate-hike induced recession in 1980, Cold War fears pushed investors to DXY as Russia tested nuclear weapons in Kazakhstan, Iranian Revolution prompted 1979 energy crisis, Fed tightened monetary policy to bring down inflation, stock market only crashed 81-82 and rallied from 83-87); and the only period where CPI was relatively low (below 3.67%) and DXY was above 108 was 2000-2002 (short recession in 2001, Y2K, Dot-Com bubble popped, 9/11). That said, history shows that financial markets mostly tumble and the economy enters a recession as DXY rallies above 108; using this pattern one can surmise that if DXY continues to rip higher, markets may go lower.* Price is currently trending up at $108.63 as it technically tests $108 resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $106.20, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 76 after bouncing at 73, the next resistance is at 82. Stochastic is currently in the process of crossing over bearish as it trends sideways at 97 in the 'bullish autobahn zone'. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 1.25 as it tests 1.24 resistance with no signs of peak formation; the next support is at 0.64 and resistance at 1.92. ADX is currently trending up at 42 with no signs of peak formation as Price continues to push higher, this is bullish. If Price is able to defend support at $108 then the next likely target is a retest of $115 resistance for the first time since February 2002. However, if Price is rejected here at $108 and breaks down, the next likely target is a retest of the 50 MA at around $103 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $108.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
MRF has shown SIGNS of UPTREND hey guys , all of the traders were waiting from a long time to find a good swing trade for the stock - MRF now the time has came , and MRF has crossed it's resistance , From a LONG time , MRF was facing resistance, from the upper trendline ( WHICH I HAVE DRAWN ) and now this stock has crossed it's resistance . and taken support therefore, from my opinion , you can buy this stock and earn high returns , i have marked the TARGET AND STOP LOSS for y'all, YOU ALL CAN ZOOM IN , AND THEN YOU CAN SEE THAT THIS STOCK HAS MADE A BEAUTIFUL GREEN CANDLE WHICH MOTIVATE US TO BUY THIS STOCK, BUT PLS GUYS , CONSIDER THE GLOBAL MARKET SITUATIONS 1. INFLATION 2. WAR 3. RISING BANK RATES AFTER CONSIDERING THESE SITUATIONS YOU CAN BET ON THIS STOCK 😀😀
NSE:MRFLong
by TRADERS_AREA
2
Stock market faces big inflation test.As inflation has risen over the past year to become the top bugbear for markets, U.S. stocks and Treasury yields have seen large moves on days when CPI data have been released. The S&P 500 index closed nearly 2% lower on June 10 and May 11 after data from May and April were released, respectively. And as U.S. stocks continue to climb off of last month’s lows, investors are understandably nervous about the possibility that Wednesday’s number could delay the latest bear-market rally. So in the spirit of offering some guidance, Tom Essaye, an experienced trader and author of the Sevens Report, has shared a quick guide for how stocks might react to Wednesday’s June CPI data, which will be released at 8:30 Eastern Time.
UShort
by gorgevorgian
PANS: Rebound on Golden Ratio, Prepare for Bull Run/False Break?Hello Fellow Stock Investor/Trader, Here's a Technical outlook of PANS Stock! Chart Perspective PANS has rebounded around the golden ratio of the Fibonacci retracement area and broken out of the falling wedge pattern. The Stochastic created a golden cross, signifying a potential upside movement to the target area. All the explanations are presented on the chart The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/support area. "Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put Long or Short Position in PANS Stock".
IDX:PANSLong
by financialfreedomgoals101
(RFP) will be acquired by a unit of Paper Excellence Group Resolute Forest Products (RFP) will be acquired by a unit of Paper Excellence Group in a roughly $2.7 billion deal that will see the Canadian forest products company added to the privately held firm's stable of pulp-and-paper assets in North America."With this transaction, Resolute will accelerate its growth as it gains access to more tools, capital and opportunities to pursue our ambitions with the combined resources of the Paper Excellence Group," Resolute Forest Chief Executive Remi Lalonde said in a statement.
RLong
by Miguelpilot
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPX Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 69% SPX, 31% Cash. * The US Jobs Report came out this morning and 372,000 jobs were added in June which essentially recovers almost all of the jobs lost due to the pandemic (~23m) , the unemployment rate remained at 3.6% for the fourth month in a row. A technical recession is defined by the combination of declining economic growth and employment ; so according to the textbook we are not yet in one because unemployment is still low and credit is still relatively healthy(?). How reliable the employment data is and how effective the models used to analyze them are arguable but as it stands now, the growing number of layoffs hasn't hit the job market yet. Even though they are both connected, markets seem to have shifted their focus from inflation to Q2 corporate earnings as a means of determining how much of an economic slowdown we are to expect (which would determine if we end 2022 with a federal funds rate above 3.5% - it is currently at 1.58%). Russia continues to avoid Western sanctions and boost their Ruble by fortifying trade routes with Brazil, China, India and South Africa (amongst other countries); Donetsk and Severodonetsk are the last two major Ukrainian strongholds defending against a total annexation of the Donbas region (Southeastern oblasts) - and Russia likely won't stop there; and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterated today at the G20 Summit (before storming out) that increased sanctions are viewed as declarations of economic war.* Price is currently pushing higher at ~$3900 as it approaches the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance. Volume remains Moderate and is currently on track to favor buyers for a fifth consecutive session if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3714, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 52 as it tests 52.68 resistance with a soft peak beginning to form. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 98 as it approaches a test of max top where it can potentially coast in the "bullish autobahn zone" for some time. MACD remains bullish and is currently testing the uptrend line from March 2020 at -44 resistance, this is a critical resistance area. ADX continues trending down at 20 as Price pushes higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment; if ADX bounces as Price continues higher, this would be bullish. If Price is able to continue up here then it will likely face a bit more resistance at the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $3706 minor support before potentially heading lower to test $3508 support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3815.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
#SPX - Market Update 7-7-22SPX Broke through the 3870 at open for a nice move and continued to melt up into our 3900 Target by close. This is a bigger momentum level here and top of the double bottom move off 3741. You have to keep in mind the market ran over 160 points now in the last three days and coming into weeks close. If 3900 doesn't hold early on we can see a quicker pullback to 3870. I would keep trades quicker for now until we get a better tell on direction. We have Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment numbers tomorrow morning which will be a catalyst. With a bad reaction 3838 is possible. In different types of markets, you have to adjust goals based on current market conditions In an easy market you can maximize gains - In a hard market you can protect capital - 3. Choppy market you can take quicker wins, build up your account. Learn to change the way you think and you'll be able to trade thru any market Emotions can be a liability to a trading account. Stay calm and remain objective on each trade otherwise you may fail to see consistency..
SP:SPX
by MoneyFlow_Options_Community
The Dollar Hasn't Done this in 20 years! What does this mean?Hey guys, It's been a couple of weeks since I put out an update. I am seeing some interesting indicators in the market as I come back to studying these charts. Today we'll take a close look at the dollar, the vix, and we'll also jump to Bitcoin, and talk about unemployment and OIL prices. These are all valid indicators of future price action in the market and if I am reading the charts right, we should see some relief here over the next few weeks. - Stew
TVC:DXY
by stewdamus
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPX Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 63% SPX, 37% Cash. * FOMC minutes were released at 2pm (EST) today and the main takeaways were: the Fed is committed to price stability and maximum employment and will take on a even more restrictive stance if inflation isn't tamed; they are most likely going to raise 75bps unless CPI comes in lower than expected or Russia/Ukraine situation improves, in this case they may raise 50; and that housing, job and credit markets are healthy as of May and the Fed thinks GDP will bounce back in Q2 - very curious to see how declining new home sales, growing gas and food prices, more layoffs and higher credit card usage will reflect on this perspective come July 27th. The current GDPnow estimate for Q2 GDP is -2.1% , and the next estimate is due tomorrow at 830am (EST). Gold + Oil + VIX + Euro are down and Equities + Treasuries + Cryptos + USD are up, markets seem to be pricing in a recession at this point. I guess it's only a real recession if the Fed says it is though.* Price is currently trending up at $3845 and forming a Bear Flag after bouncing from $3780; the next resistance is the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance and the next support (minor) is at $3707. Volume remains Moderate and has favored buyers for the past three sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3706, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 46, the next resistance is at 53 and support at 38. Stochastic remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 84 as it attempts to flip 76 resistance to support on its way to testing to max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -56 as it slowly approaches -44 resistance, the next support (minor) is at -76. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 22 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to continue up here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3938 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $3707 minor support before potentially heading lower to test $3508 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3780.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy