Stock market correction in 2025??I personally believe we'll see a stock market correction in 2025.
1. 30yr treasury yield going higher while FED cut interest rates. Similar situation in 1970s and 1980s where we say a 50% correction in just 2 years in the 1970s (can't remember exact dates)
2. US 10yr/3m yield curve has turned positive. Last times it's done this has been 2000, 2008 and 2020. I'm guessing you know what happened each of those times.
3. Institutional investors increasing long contracts in the yen. The Japanese Yen is a 'risk-off' investment and investors tend to favour it when they don't have much faith in the stock market.
4. US have a volatile president in Trump. The power also seems to be getting to his head a bit - he disagrees with Fed Chair Powell over interest rates, despite not being as educated in economics. He has a lot of power right now and I don't think he will be able to stop a potential market crash for the first year or 2 of his presidency.
5. Back-to-back 20%+ years from the S&P500, could be due a pullback.
These are some reasons, I have some more but I don't want to be sat here writing all day.
Important to note that if you're a long term investor it's best to just ignore this. "Time in the markets beats timing the markets" as they say.
But if you're a day trader I wouldn't be taking many long positions on stocks this year. Could be better to start looking at opportunities in the currency markets.
Then again - you don't have to trust me. This isn't financial advice, just my opinion.
Stockmarketbubble
EXCEL : TARGET 300%HELLO FRIENDS!
Excel is bullish as it's trading above the band as per my strategy explained in in the video on my channel POWER OF MOMENTUM by Amit Mandal. So we can take entry at cmp as price has given breakout above the trendline decisively. Sl and Target are mentioned clearly in the chart. One can take entry with proper position sizing & risk management. RISK VS REWARD is more than 6.
DISCLAIMER : Trading is risky. I hereby explain my trading ideas for knowledge purposes only.
sp500 likely to retest previous highsDovish policy of the feds coupled with the strong bullish reaction of the stock market since the fed funds borrowing cuts means the rally can continue. But how long is difficult to say. While some argue we can continue to be bullish and avoid a bear market, that sounds hard to believe and unreasonable. But for now its best to long to these areas, and only consider hedging puts up higher near the 3510-3560 area
Technical wise we have formed several bullish divergences on the 1hr. The first one suceeded somewhat. A decent rally followed by a lower low, and the current one if it works shall show a gap up with a pre market pump
US Stock Market Making 2nd Attempt at Parabolic Blow-Off TopI believe we will get either a blow-off top in the S&P or a fundamental event that kills the expansion, sending price below the magenta rising support line.
If the Fed is too slow to expand the balance sheet, then stocks can correct significantly until the Fed eases adequately.
If Trump wins and the Fed expands their balance sheet in 2020 at a fast enough pace, then spx will enter a blow-off top mania.
If Bernie or Warren win, a significant correction will take place but SPX may bounce once rates hit zero or negative.
If the Fed is slow to move (quite likely) then SPX will swing really violently and could get scary for some investors and traders
In my view, the SPX is only worth trading, it is not worth investing in. Now is the time to be getting out of US stocks and US dollars and into emerging markets and commodities.
Sometimes being a better investor means passing up immediate returns via central bank fueled irrational exuberance and waiting for an even better opportunity later once the music has stopped and everyone has been exposed. Impossible to predict the top, so better off not fully participating.
DJI and SPX500 History: 1929 Parabolic ManiaOnce again, notice how orderly and well-respected the trendlines are throughout a 21 and 24-year expansion. Show these US stock market charts to anyone who tells you that technical analysis doesn't work.
Study these time periods and become well-acquainted with the stock market parabolas throughout history.