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Stockmarketcrash

#NASDAQ - Too good to be true?What a show, Nasdaq 100 lost almost 11% in a single week after a massive sell-off and everyone started to blame Robinhood for selling data, despite forecasts and warns of hundreds of analysts saying that the bubble will soon blow and all the tech stocks are overvalued, so.... Greed is one to blame? This is just my opinion, you decide whether to agree or not. From the technical perspective NDX is currently testing a dynamic resistance (dashed line) though remains above the 11300 support zone. If it takes out the dynamic resistance with a massive green candle, then it will bounce to 12000. If it breaks below the 11300, then it will drop to 11150 - 11098 in short term. The best scenario is to drop down to 10400 levels to penetrate the 100MA and then bounce back towards new highs. If Rumors on Robinhood continue growing and investigations are conducted, then we might witness the largest bubble explosion in the history.
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by azizelliott
Stock Market Crash or Pullback?If you have been a follower of my work, I have been saying that stock markets will only be moving higher as it is the only place to chase yield in this world. We are setting up for a parabolic move higher. The past two trading days, saw big drops on the US equity markets...amusingly, the perma bears are back, and the financial media quickly shifts their stance to "beginning of a bear market". A good example of why financial media is REACTIONARY. If what the financial media and mainstream media told you was true, then everyone would be rich! But the markets make their moves way before...and in my humble opinion, adheres to market structure which is the way I approach all markets. After the S&P 500 broke out, we say money chasing the breakout. Perfectly normal. Likely a lot of daytraders, but you can make a good case that domestic funds started increasing their allocation of US stocks as the bond market was showing us that money was leaving the safety of the bond markets. Following the asset allocation model of stocks and bonds that funds utilize, we can predict that this money cannot remain in cash forever, and that it was going to the stock markets. Certain fund managers did not chase US stocks higher because they believed the bottom in equities was not it. That there was another leg lower coming which would take us below February lows. Well, the stock market officially ended its shorted bear market in history, and started a new bull market with the new highs. If you were a fund manager who did not participate in that rise, you really have no excuse now. This money will enter US stocks, and I argue foreign money too, which will cause a parabolic move. Back to the chart. After days of moving higher, you could just feel the euphoria and the FOMO. It just felt a pullback was necessary. In fact, this move down to me was just that. A pullback. Remember: when break outs occur, it is perfectly normal for price to retest the breakout zone before continuing higher! Ideally we want this to happen a few days after the breakout, but there are times when momentum carries price higher to another resistance level BEFORE selling off to retest the breakout zone. Notice price action on Friday too. We had a large red day which broke below a major support level on the longer term charts. Many traders chased this move lower. They thought this was the big sell off. Look at how the candles closed. Large wick candles with the body closing above support. This is a fake out, or a bull trap. Look at the Nasdaq and the Dow too: The Dow is still holding a major support/flip zone. Two important lessons here: 1) This is why we look at the long term charts to spot market structure trends and key zones. 2) We wait for candles to CLOSE before entering positions or determining whether a break down/out is happening. This is very important as you many traders lost money thinking this was the large stock market crash. I have said many times that stock markets are the only place to go for yield. The fundamentals have not changed. The real economy does not matter. There will be more cheap money for a very long time. In fact, the Fed and other western central banks cannot hike interest rates anymore. The amount of debt that government and citizens have had to take means a slight rise in interest rates will destroy them. This means interest rates will remain close to 0 for a very long time, and it is much more likely we cut interest rates to the NEGATIVE (following Europe and Japan and others) which would allow government to service the debt as it is likely more spending programs and benefits will be coming. Essentially, the monetary policy side has used all their ammunition. Sooner than later the Fed will announce they are actively buying stocks to keep markets propped. Now the onus is on the fiscal policy side, and we can deduce that governments will announce more programs to try and spur the economy and keep people afloat. With all these things in mind, it is safe to say the party is not over. Will there be a time when markets crash? Yes. And it will be the largest wealth transfer in human history. Wall Street knows the party is not over. Central Banks will do whatever they must to keep markets propped, but there will be a time for the reversal. For our crash, our eyes will be on the bond markets. One day, bonds will sell off which will cause interest rates to spike (likely into double digits). This will be our signal for a stock market crash. Right now, most central banks are buying bonds and suppressing interest rates. When they are ready for the culling and an implementation of a new system, they will sell. The other possibility comes from a black swan event. I think this will come mainly from some sort of geopolitical news regarding US and China. Although Turkey and India and China are other hot spots. If some sort of shooting war begins...markets would not like that. Maybe a second wave of Covid? I am not too sure, since we are seeing a lot of questions being raised about the testing and deaths being wrongly attributed. Also, a vaccine would cause markets to pop... we found out the Chinese have had one since July and have been innoculating the military, health professionals, and border guards. Finally, what about the US elections? I do think that whatever side wins, the losing side will not accept the results. There will be major violence on the streets of America. This plays in with my confidence crisis scenario (a confidence crisis in central banks, governments, and the fiat money) and why you want to be holding hard assets like Gold and Silver. But the fact is, regardless of who wins, more cheap money is not going to change. I would even argue markets would shoot higher on a Biden victory because it would mean even MORE cheap money. It is really going to be crazy times ahead, and I still do not think we have seen the parabolic move in equity markets yet. Once the Dow breaks out into all time new highs, we are closer on that road. But going forward, unless we see some sort of topping pattern from here, such as a double top or head and shoulders, do NOT short this market!
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Uncharted-FX
2
Is the Stock Market going to CRASH?!?!Is the stock market going to crash?!?! I reckon about 50 people a week ask me this question! The reality is that we have never experienced this kind of crash before, we have never fought COVID before and we are seeing a huge amount of stimulus from our governments. Even the most experienced traders and investors are struggling to predict the market. Here is what I know: • It's a crazy time, with things changing daily • The market has recovered well since the crash, but it's not yet "technically safe" • We are going through a digital evolution, meaning that things are different. Business is different. Life is different. • Companies are announcing loss in sales and increase in profits at the same time. Profit is what matters. • We are never going to see "work" in the same way again. • There is a huge amount of misinformation in the media • There is an even bigger amount of misinformation coming from the public (the new media - how ironic) • The stock market responds to supply and demand. You might think a stock is overpriced (and it may be), but if another person is willing to pay that price, is it 'overpriced', or just... 'priced'? • A company is not it's stock price. Read this 3 times. • An index is not a company. Read this 3 times. The world is changing and evolving. Here is my suggestion to investors and traders: Don't try to predict. Instead get really good at adapting and even better at reacting. Use technology to your benefit. Computers are better than us at processing things, we are better at strategy. Manage your risk every second of every day. Never stop doing what you love in he trading and investing world, instead, proceed with caution and have an exit strategy. Technicals: The below chart is how I personally see the ASX right now. We are looking very bullish technically, with a huge ascending triangle on top of a trip wire on the daily. We also have an ascending triangle on the 4hr. We are pressing against resistance right now. A push through could see us making new recent highs and moving up a couple of hundred points. If we do, be careful as we are going to hit a major supply zone, which could trigger a reversal. A push through this second level of resistance could see the market heading in a longer term positive direction. Marked on chart. Another thing to note, we are right on the 61.8 Fibs, a prime position for a reversal to occur. Does this mean the market is going up? No it doesn't, but it looks like it wants to. The market is a flaky, fickle, 2-faced, sadistic creature. Remember what you are dealing with. Be careful, its not your friend and it doesn't care about you. Does this make you feel bad? Why? Now you know what you are dealing with, you can milk it for everything it's worth. Your role as a trader is to take money from the market and put it in your pocket. Don't kid yourself, this was never a friendship. How I read it: It could easily go either way right now. Risk management is key. Invest in sectors that stand to benefit whether the crash happens or not. Read the following aloud to yourself: • Risk management is my number 1 priority • I'm going to do my own research and make my own choices • My friends and family aren't qualified to give me financial advice If you prioritise risk, you minimise loss. Its really that simple. Here's the thing, we just don't know what will happen. No one does. All the time you spend searching for someone to give you that answer could have been spent finding your next major trade. Spend it wisely. A couple of things to be aware of: - Australia follows the US. Elections are coming soon in November. - Jobkeeper is allowing companies to keep operating, it's potentially ending next March. - All business is changing. What you know today may not apply tomorrow. With that being said, I wish everyone an amazing week trading and investing! • Learn • Manage Risk • Adapt • Remove the ego • DYOR • Invest in what you know • Go your own way Have a great week 🚀
Editors' picks
ASX:XJOEducation
by glennleese
43
Bulls Don't Get Your Hopes UpRetail is plowing into USO, tech, and US stocks. Even with the "Fed Liquidity", the 1st quarter of 2020 was the largest QoQ contraction in credit conditions EVER. The fundamental economic data is putrid. The worst ever. and REMEMBER, corporate profits peaked in late 2018, which is also when the Russell 2000 entered a bear market. The SPX was saved from crashing by a Fed that slashed interest rates in 2019, but with this biggest global shock we have ever seen and with money supply velocity at ZERO, there's nothing that traditional monetary policy can do for the markets. Markets bounced off of hope and optimism given to them by Mnuchin. Don't trust the administration. Things are about to get UGLY UGLY
SP:SPXShort
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
20
GDP? More Like Debt-Financed ConsumptionNotice the time period where the rate of change began to significantly increase. Sad that TV doesn't have the data but if you go and look, inflation from 1700-1900 was extremely stable. Not the "2%" per year inflation of today, was more like gradual deflation over time, with certainty that your money would be worth the same 100 years from now. During the classic gold standard era, from 1870-1910, real growth averaged 8-10% per year, and we had 3% deflation per year. The banking system of today is based off of printing lots of money, getting caught in a liquidity trap, and then being at risk of a major deflation because you thought you were smart enough to inflate an asset bubble with no consequences. That's where we are at right now. Very similar to 1929.
FRED:CPIAUCSL
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
Dow Jones Index Technical AnalysisLet me start off by saying I hope each and everyone of you are safe and healthy. Some of the craziest s*** has happened within the last few weeks including oil futures going negative -44 per barrel. While everyone is distracted with the FED throwing in fridge after sink and the economy halting, a lot of people seem to have forgot about earnings. Knowing earnings was just around the corner after this insane dump, any experienced trader would have know prior to earnings that volatility and typical speculation would pick up. That being said, all this has resulted in a pretty massive rebound (DJI 29%) (SPY 26%). These next few days are extremely important, whether you are planning on building a long-term chair or play some options. All I have to say is take advantage of the opportunity presented and money will come eventually. I'd love to hear what you guys have to say! Share your charts, thoughts, and feedback below. DotcomJack | DO NOT TRADE THIS
TVC:DJIShort
by DotcomJack
1
Is the next Major Crash Beginning?Is the next big crash starting? OANDA:SPX500USD I've been watching the S&P closely for the last month during our recovery phase. It's been a great ride up, but today it's starting to look like the cracks are once again forming. The below analysis is as I see it. This is not advice. Please do your own research before entering any trade. Signs of a potential reversal: 1. We have recovered to the point of reaching the "Golden Pocket", which is the idea place to open a short for minimizing risk, between the 50 and the 61.8 Fibs. 2. We have seen a bull flag formation on both the Daily and the 4hr, with both breaking down and out during the last trading session. 3. We rejected off the 50 day moving average on the Daily. 4. Moving average on Volume is reducing. 5. MACD line has turned and looks poised to cross down below the signal line. 6. CCI is trending down and fallen out of upward channel. None of this guarantees that a crash is coming, but it's certainly got me interested. Potential SHORT Trade Setup ENTRY: 2740-2770 (Anywhere here) STOP LOSS: 2970 - 6.89% (Clear those fibs) TAKE PROFIT 1: 2320 - 16.73% TAKE PROFIT 2: 2176 - 21.70% TAKE PROFIT 3: Let run RISK:REWARD: 1:2.4 As per normal risk management practice, once the trade starts moving, reduce your SL and potentially apply a Trailing Stop in a fast moving market. Please DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!! Happy Hunting!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by glennleese
Prepare to Buy the Dips in Gold & Gold StocksKirkland Lake is down 40% from gold's September high of 1550 yet Gold is pushing $1700. Its down 18% from the market meltdown. I suspect this means that if gold gets sold in the coming crash that the dip in gold and gold mining stocks will be limited not extended. It won't be like 2008. A 60% correction from September's high puts Kirkland at $20/share. I will be buying that if we even get that low. If we get lower than that consider it a blessing. Kirkland has some really amazing All-In-Sustaining-Costs to getting gold out of the ground. $2000 - $3000 gold will be incredible for Kirkland lake.
KLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
1
US Stock Market Making 2nd Attempt at Parabolic Blow-Off TopI believe we will get either a blow-off top in the S&P or a fundamental event that kills the expansion, sending price below the magenta rising support line. If the Fed is too slow to expand the balance sheet, then stocks can correct significantly until the Fed eases adequately. If Trump wins and the Fed expands their balance sheet in 2020 at a fast enough pace, then spx will enter a blow-off top mania. If Bernie or Warren win, a significant correction will take place but SPX may bounce once rates hit zero or negative. If the Fed is slow to move (quite likely) then SPX will swing really violently and could get scary for some investors and traders In my view, the SPX is only worth trading, it is not worth investing in. Now is the time to be getting out of US stocks and US dollars and into emerging markets and commodities. Sometimes being a better investor means passing up immediate returns via central bank fueled irrational exuberance and waiting for an even better opportunity later once the music has stopped and everyone has been exposed. Impossible to predict the top, so better off not fully participating.
SP:SPX
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
1
DOW JONESHello everyone, This is what I am really thinking for stock markets, the top of the 2008 housing bubble is lined up almost perfectly with my bottom trend line. With the recent move up last week 20% was a bit challenging for me since I am short-med term bearish. But I feel it was just a LH inside of a strong downtrend. Witching Hour was also last week. I think Monday we resume chaos , Maybe trump will lock down the entire country this coming week for 30 days or so. Trade safe all and remain diligent bears as these bastard fake bulls want our $$$.
TVC:DJIShort
by Big_Mike716
HALHalliburton looks ripe for a reversal here, after oil has dumped to $23 & the stock market has tanked HAL has touched all the way down to massive historical support and rejected. Buyers have sent the stock from the low $4 level back up close to $8 in a matter of 2 days, The 200 ema on the monthly is around $34 and seems to me like maybe another touch down to $4 b4 lift off back to $35 maybe even $55. The R/R seems really good for a long here and I may just take a shot. My plan was to wait till Monday after the Witching Hour this Friday to see for a possible double bottom but I may just buy in tomorrow. Depends on how the markets react, for now I am just watching but anxiously waiting for a chance to catch this knife, I also don't want to be too greedy. $7 --> $35 is a nice 80% gain.
NYSE:HALLong
by Big_Mike716
2