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Stockmarketcrash

Why I'm Rooting For A Stock Market Crash I think we're about to end a 90 year cycle for global markets, meaning that we could get a crash similar in magnitude to the Great Depression. There are just too many technical sell signals to ignore, and fundamentally there is no reason for the market to continue rising if data shows that growth is slowing down. Both indexes are well above their long term trends, the DJI is at a long term trendline resistance, and we have a glaring bearish divergence on the monthly oscillators. All large market crashes in history were preceded with a bearish divergence on the monthly chart. This is when price makes a higher high, but the oscillator makes a lower high, showing lack of confidence in the move. I've even drawn those out for your viewing pleasure. On the recent high, we can observe what is arguably the largest bearish divergence the stock market has sever seen, even when compared with The Great Depression! Check it out: Above, I drew what could easily happen to the DJI if it breaks down. We're now even further from all our moving averages AND the timeframe is longer. What this means is that it may take us at least 4 years to even reach bottom, and by that time, the Dow Jones may have declined back towards 10,000 or below. I think it does need to test the long term uptrend, which hasn't happened since 1982. We're long overdue for an extended period of stagnation, in my opinion. Aside from indicators, there's also this fractal that I've been talking about for a year now. On this speculative chart, I outlined a possible move towards 40,000 or above, but we may actually never get up there, given the size of this divergence. The higher we go, I think the larger the drop will be. The market has been cannibalized by big tech, and supported by lazy and complacent consumers. Suicide and drug addiction has exploded in the United States over the last decade, and this is because we have a population that doesn't have the resources to take care of itself. All they can do is buy. And buy on credit, obviously. Would a stock market crash make things worse? Perhaps in the short term, but I argue that this kind of "shakeup" is exactly what our disillusioned population needs. Something like that would provide more incentive to make change, and for people to really fight for their families and each other's lives. I think a stock market crash would mean we would finally have the opportunity to make headway as a species. Rising market valuations lead to complacency, which leads to lack of policy change and the neglect of important issues like the wealth disparity and climate disaster. A big collapse would finally get people thinking ACTIVELY - and we'd be able to begin a new cycle with hopefully some positive direction. We must also be careful, because events like this can also lead to violence and the rise of fascism. Arguably, we're already seeing a rise in fascism on BOTH ends of the political spectrum. But these unstable periods also allow for art and culture to flourish in ways they haven't in quite some time. New opportunities for music, film, and visual art may present themselves, for people who need communities and activities to pass the time. Most people would probably agree that we're not seeing any sort of artistic Renaissance right now. Anyway, that's it from me. I'm really curious to see if something like this ends up playing out. Linked below are my other write-ups on the stock market, including where I discuss a fractal I noticed in the Dow Jones. This is not financial advice! This represents my opinion and one version of reality that may or may not be substantiated in truth. I like think I do my best to speak the truth, but I'm only a guy with an imagination. I do love to speculate though. -Victor Cobra
SP:SPXShort
by VictorCobra
10
This Looks Like A Seller's Rally Built On Quicksand We have a truly massive bearish divergence on both the weekly RSI and Ultimate Oscillator for the S & P 500. Marked on this chart are moments where SPY broke its all-time-high and confirmed further upside without a divergence (yellow). In pink, I also marked where SPY printed a failed breakout and entered bearish territory shortly thereafter. While I think we COULD have a bit more upside, I think this is a great opportunity for people to exit the stock market before things get potentially pretty awful. It could drop next week. It could happen in two weeks, three weeks, several months even. All I can see is that there is a LOT of downside risk here, and the bearish divergence usually didn't take too long to play out in the past. Potential support/liquidity zones for the coming decade are marked in magenta. I also have been posting about how price action in the Dow Jones is perfectly mirroring what led up to the 1929 stock market crash. So yes, I think SPY can get back to the 400-700 range. However, a bear market of this magnitude would only become more likely if we breach the low from December, 2018 and then fail to hold the important 1500 range as well (resistance from the 2000's). The monthly chart looks just as bad, with the divergences even MORE pronounced. It shows that we easily have downside at least towards the 1600 area, and the 200 month moving average. What's really interesting about the monthly chart, is that we haven't seen a positive correlation between the oscillators and price since 2012! You can see the anomaly here, where the oscillators started looking bearish even in 2014. This could tell us that the entire rally from the last 5 years didn't have much strength behind it. No one is benefitting from this stock market rise. The everyday person isn't even happy about it. I see it on their faces every day. Why? Because they're still making the same amount of money that they did decades ago and paying more taxes, while the wealthy continue to be the sole beneficiaries of this endless bull market. Meanwhile, the barriers to entry for landing a decent-paying job keep getting more oppressive: the cost of a college degree, the racial wealth gap, workers getting replaced by technology...I'm pretty sure most people see that there's something wrong with this. You can feel it in the air. There's a lot of turbulence. Civil unrest is on the rise globally, and I don't think it's unlikely that it will spread to the United States. I think the real reason why people have been waiting for a market correction is because deep down they want it to happen. They know that something needs to be shaken up, because positive change cannot occur as long as the greedy people who are in power are comfortable. Change will occur when even those at the top start to tremble in their boots from fear and loneliness. What's sad is that the stock market was initially meant to represent universal prosperity; if stocks are doing well, then the whole nation is doing well! Everyone can own a piece of the pie and benefit from our shared growth! Instead, what we're seeing now is an evaporating middle class, where the majority of the nation is NOT doing well. It's like a lovely mansion built on a termite infestation that everyone somehow chooses to ignore. I think some sort of financial restructuring is inevitable---some serious ground-up rebuilding. This will need to happen in order to face environmental problems as well. As we are now, we cannot efficiently tackle major issues. Will cryptocurrency valuations benefit from massive change? We have no idea. First we need to tackle the stock market delusion, so crypto may be left by the wayside at first. I think that once major media outlets stop believing in the endless stock market rally, then we would get real panic, and all the people who have been feeling uneasy will start to feel validated, but in a sick way. Then, perhaps we can unite and tackle these challenges. In an age of constant self-medicating and denial through smartphones and social media, people will need a lot to get them to take action, especially the people least affected by these problems. Alright, rant over. This is not financial advice. This is purely my opinion. -Victor Cobra
TVC:SPXShort
by VictorCobra
US30 Buying cycle inside ascending triangleTo be added to my earlier publication wherein I explain to expect a stock rally followed by a larger stock market crash is a stock buying cycle locked up inside an ascending triangle. This particular set of conditions has lead to sudden stock rally and drop of DXY halfway the month of June. We could expect to see a similar cause and effect from current date until into March next year. Stress signals on the stock market has been rising recently with sudden drops in the early markets of the Asian session. Last down cycle was drawing a cup and handle candle formation and we are now drawing the last bit of the handle. It could mean nothing or it could be just that last extra signal that my earlier predicted stock market rally and crash is in fact going to happen.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by Deep-Peat-Shark
FYI - Will Stock market History Repeat itself? From 10-8-2019 CNBC Article The father of the yield curve indicator says now is the time to prepare for a recession. The yield for the 3-month Treasury has been above the 10-year since May, a condition known as an inverted yield curve that has predicted the past seven recessions. “This is the time where you need to reflect upon your strategy." “It’s way better to have a plan to go by than to find yourself in a situation where the recession hits and you have to improvise.” My opinion: Need to be extra ready to get out of the market when the yield curve crosses above zero. Source: www.cnbc.com
DJ:DJI
by Marius1032
Facebook Looking Very UnstableWith recent news on Facebook's encryption scandal and more rocky fundamentals, I do have a bearish view on this stock. As a trader I cannot marry my bias so I will only trade what my technical's tell me in the end which is why I am neutral in this analysis. If price breaks above 206.00, then I will enter long to the next resistance around 240.00. If price falls below 160.00, completing the daily head and shoulders pattern and does not break new highs, then I will go short to 132.00, which would give enough momentum to continue to my second short target to 4 year lows around $81.00/share.
NASDAQ:META
by bajapips
Gold (XAUUSD) Rally Soon. Stock up on Gold In the times of crisis, it has been recorded in history that people stock up on Gold in fear that their economies are crashing or some global event is taking place. Gold has been rallying for over a year now and I do not see momentum slowing anytime soon. I will enter long shortly, but waiting for a solid break above 1550.00 before entering. If price falls below 1300.00, then I will go short for 200 pips and track the downtrend, protecting my shorts from any rally along the decline.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by bajapips
Perhaps This Will Be A Monday To Remember (Amazon Short)Posting this AMZN short setup in advance of the market open for Monday August 26th 2019. We already have a red futures - this almost always indicates an initial selloff. Sometimes the market bounces back after this initial selloff, but so many equities are in such precarious technical positions that they may not be able to withstand the selling volume from traders who will be looking to reduce risk at this point. I am of the opinion that it's really time for stock holders (particularly in those shares that have increased astronomically in the last few years) to take some substantial profit off the table. Since my first AMZN chart in January, the double-top scenario played out pretty perfectly. Confirmation will occur if the low from the first rejection is breached. As you can see in the lefthand chart, Amazon already broke the logarithmic trend and tested it as resistance (orange). This tells us that growth for company shares is at least slowing down. The price has not experienced a true correction yet though. I think it's very possible that the bear market for many stocks begins tomorrow. On the righthand chart, you can see that on the linear chart, AMZN is just barely supported by an important rising trendline (light blue). A break below it would indicate to traders that the top may indeed be in, but first I think price will need to retest the low 1500 area. If that breaks (red X), the top will likely be confirmed, and the parabolic nature of the gains from the last few years will become obvious. I think it's very possible to see an erasure of all the gains since Trump's election in 2016. This means AMZN shares could decline all the way back to $288. Of course I'm getting ahead of myself here. We have to see if the supports outlined in pink hold first, as there are multiple levels to where Amazon can fall. We really have to see how the market, Trump, the media, and general public react to a selloff. I think we could be in for a pretty red Monday if sentiment can't turn around tonight and these technical supports are broken. The setup would be to short the breakdown and potential retest of this light blue trendline and target (initially) the 1500 zone. If that breaks, the other potential supports are shown in pink. A note about risk/reward: There is still some potential upside in stocks, but that possibility seems to be diminishing by the day. As outlined in my DJI fractal analysis, the stock market had a final "mania" phase before the Great Depression. I would honestly prefer if this did not happen to that extent in this cycle, as the fallout from that would likely be far worse. I'd prefer the market to drop now. It would appear much healthier, although I still think it could be substantially worse than 2008, based on the parabolic nature of the recent growth. In a way, it's been like a "mini-mania." Anyway, people who buy stocks at current prices are betting on what they think would likely be the final hurrah (if there is one). Due to this, most people don't expect more than one more rally for stocks before a deep correction. This is based on all the conversations I've had with investors, family members, and friends. Logically, if most people don't expect more than one rally, the risk/reward favors people who sell at current prices, because once the top is reached, prices will ultimately end up below where they are now (even if the top is substantially higher), since most people will be aiming to get out at that point. This is what causes a "blow off" phase. Anyway, this was longer than I meant it to be. Other stock analyses are listed at bottom, along with my Great Depression fractal. This is not financial advice! Shorting the market has been very risky, since people have been trying very hard to support current prices. If one were trading this, risk management is key. Please consult a professional financial advisor (which I am not). As always, analysis is about weighing possibilities. It's not about getting it right 100% of the time, but about understanding how the herd behaves based on visual cues given to them as trends on a chart. Good luck out there! It's pretty nuts. -Victor Cobra
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by VictorCobra
6
$DJI- Massive Crash ImminentElliot wave patterns always move in the same specific way. In a 5 wave pattern which will inevitably be followed by an ABC correction. The textbook example of the pattern is shown right below the monthly Dow Jones Chart. The Dow Jones is a compilation of the top 30 stocks. A crash in the majority of these stocks would rock the global economy in ways that we have never seen. By now you’ve probably been hearing people say here and there that the stock market is a bubble. They’re not the majority, but we saw the same sort of behavior during the Bitcoin rise to $20,000. Which was, of course, a massive bubble. These views should be taken seriously. Because of the way that the Elliot wave works it is impossible for there to not be a massive ABC correction to follow, which could potentially last for decades. Instagram: @Crypto_Planet_VIP Website: Cryptoplanet.cash
DJ:DJIShort
by dmitch696
1
Why I'm Shorting the S&P 500Macro-economic Overview Essentially, it’s looking like the bear market is becoming more probable month after month. Tons of macro-economic bearish signals: Euro economies taking hits (Germany narrowly avoided a recession last quarter but has seen 0 growth; UK recession looming as well especially w/ no Brexit deal) We’re currently in the longest US economic expansion ever. What goes up, must come down. US-China trade deal going sour. Manufacturing production going down. The Fed raised interest rates several times last year. The list goes on and on. And that’s without me even looking at a chart. What exactly is going on here? When we look high-level at the charts (see above video for technical analysis) , at the end of 2018, the US stock market took its biggest plunge (-20%) since the financial crisis… Now, we’ve climbed back to the previous high for the third time and are again struggling to break through it. What appears to be propping up our economy despite these bearish signals is lip service: Statements by Trump like “Our economy is in its best state ever!” and “We’re gonna have an epic trade deal with China!” And statements by the Central bank saying that they are not going to raise interest rates again until 2020. But covering the wound is not stopping the bleeding. The blood is accumulating and there is a point when it starts to leak. We don’t know what specific event is going to trigger the blood to gush this time around. In 2001, it was the tech bubble. In 2008, it was the lack of regulation in Wall Street and the housing bubble. In 2019/2020, it could be a failed China deal, the Fed reneging on their promise not to raise rates this year, or something we haven’t caught wind of yet… Perhaps the specific trigger is worth speculating and helpful for folks who want to say, “I called it!“, but at the end of the day - the bearish signals are very clear. And big money knows it, else we wouldn’t hit the same price peak 3 times in a row over the course of 18 months and still fail to break through it. 18 months is quite a long time to maintain the same peak in a bull market. That is a clear bearish signal. Our Opportunity We’re in an advantageous position where we can see the red writing on the wall, we can see the blood beneath the bandages, but prices don’t reflect it yet. This is when smart money enters. The masses wait for headlines to say "We've entered a recession." Let's think like smart money, not the masses :)
AMEX:SDSShort
by eudotong1
2
No One is Talking About this Triple Top, DOWNormally, I keep my trading and analyses to crypto, but this Dow Jones setup looks too good to ignore. Factoring in all of the bearish signs from fundamental analysis (rising interest rates, rising unemployment, slumping retail sales, and gov't shutdown), it's tough to argue that the stock market will break the previous high. Triple top formation is possible. I'm playing a conservative short to the .382 fib retracement line for 6.4%. Setting my stop-loss right above the last swing high. Will start stacking my shorts as we near that 26700 resistance. Entry: 26500 Exit: 24800 Stop-loss: 27000 Risk/Reward: 3
DJ:DJIShort
by eudotong1
10
Average price of bitcoin against the American stock marketSince I'm lazy, here's what I said on twitter: "Due to the stock market opening lower than it closed yesterday, this chart that takes into account the average price of #bitcoin against the sum of $DJI $NDX and $SPX opened exactly at the 200 day moving average, rising as the day progresses... A $BTC target ~$13k based on this" I've been noticing clear inverse correlation with the American stock market and bitcoin(along with the inverse correlation with DXY). After realizing it was possible to form charts out of formulas using other charts as variables, I decided it would be very interesting to weight the American stock market against the average price of bitcoin across the 10 most significant exchanges according to me. Unfortunately for the no coiners, I've been anticipating a significant recession that adds fuel to the next bitcoin bull run(see related ideas).
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by tomtourettes
1