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WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST OCT. 14-18th: BUY THE S&P 500? YES!The S&P 500 looks to have supporting structure for higher prices. The bullish momentum is there, and Friday's close put that on display. There is some potential for a limited pullback, though. But I would view it as a better price for a possible long entry. What are your thoughts....? Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by RT_Money
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST OCT. 14-18th: BUY THE NASDAQ 100? YES!The NASDAQ looks to have supporting structure for higher prices. The bullish momentum is there, but it lacks the +FVGs that are present in the S&P500. Bullish, yes, but a bit weaker There is some potential for a limited pullback, though. But I would view it as a better price for a possible long entry. What are your thoughts....? Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by RT_Money
ASI Update on 26022024Support Zone - 10150 to 10350 Resistance Zone - 10800 to 11000 Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
CSELK:ASI
by rukshan2102
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 48% SPX, 52% Cash. * MINOR DOWNWARD CORRECTION WATCH . Equities, Equity Futures, Cryptos, Oil, Agriculture, NI225, EURUSD, GBPUSD and JPYUSD are all down. DXY, Long-Term US Treasuries, VIX, Gold, Natural Gas, HSI and CNYUSD are up. US President Biden and China President Jinping met today for 3 hours in Bali ending months of limited communication between the two countries after US House Speaker Pelosi visited Taiwan in August. It ended with Biden promising to defend Japan, South Korea and U.S. interests from North Korea while reaffirming U.S. support for Taiwan's military; and Jinping making it clear that China-Taiwan relations are a red line that must not be crossed by the U.S. The Russia/Ukraine Grain Deal is set to expire on 11/19. Key Upcoming Dates: Fourth GDPNow Q4 GDP estimate 11/16; US October Retail Sales at 830am EST 11/16; US October Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 11/17; Russia/Ukraine Grain Deal Expiration on 11/19; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30; October PCE Index at 830am EST 12/01; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14 . * Price is currently trending down at $3957 after breaking above $3913 minor support last week. Volume remains High (low) and broke a two day streak of buyer dominance with a red close in today's session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3715, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 59 after forming a short-term peak at 62, the next support is at 52.68. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 76 with no signs of peak formation, the next resistance is max top. MACD is currently trending up at 40 with signs of a soft peak formation and is still technically testing 33 resistance. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 18 while Price pushes higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest $4058 minor resistance which should coincide with the 200MA. However, if Price continues to fall here, it will likely retest $3913 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $4000.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% SPX, 40% Cash. * 50MA RESISTANCE TEST . Equity Futures, Hang Seng (Hong Kong) Index, Cryptos, DXY, US Treasuries and JPY are up while CNYUSD, GPBUSD and EURUSD are down. Equities and Commodities finished today's session higher. US September New Home Sales came -10.9% lower at 603k compared to August's 677k, and 17.6% lower than September 2021 . The housing market is finally catching up to financial markets and starting to reverse course. The 20th and final GPDNow US Q3 GDP estimate came in at 3.1% compared to 2.9% on 10/19. As the FOMC meeting on 11/01-11/02 nears, the recent significant downturns in PMI and New Home Sales may not be enough to save the Fed from going with 100bps if US September PCE index doesn't come down equivocally. However, most speculators are still betting on a 75bps rate hike. Key Upcoming Dates: US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27 ; Amazon Q3 and Apple Q4 Earnings 10/28; First GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/28; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.* Price has successfully broken back into the descending channel from August 2021 and is currently trending down at ~$3830 after being rejected by the 50 MA at ~$3860 as resistance; it would confirm support of the channel if it were to successfully defend the lower trendline of the channel at ~$3795 as support. Volume both remains High (low) and has favored buyers for four consecutive sessions now. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3547, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 55.5 after forming a peak at 58, the next support is at 52.68. Stochastic is currently on the verge of crossing over bearish at 96, the next support is at 76 but as long as it stays above 85 it is in the "bullish autobahn". MACD remains bullish and is currently testing the weak uptrend line from March 2020 at 10.73 resistance with no signs of trough formation. ADX continues to trend lower at 25 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to breakout above the 50 MA at ~$3860 as resistance then it will likely aim to retest the VP Point of Control at around $3938 minor resistance . However, if Price continues to breakdown here, it will likely test the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3795 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3795.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% SPX, 65% Cash. * BOUNCE WATCH . US September Building Permits came in 1.4% higher than in August while Housing Starts registered 8.1% lower , following a recent trend of builders making more plans to build but being unable to start. Several factors contributing to this include average 30yr Fixed Mortgages going above 7%, more supply chain interruptions delaying building material/parts arrivals and inflated prices that are increasing the cost of new builds. Equities, Equity Futures, Cryptos, Gold, Agriculture, EURUSD, GBPUSD, CNYUSD, JPYUSD are all down while DXY, US Treasuries and the VIX are all up. The 19th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate is now 2.9% compared to 2.8% on 10/14 . Putin has announced Martial Law in all four of the Ukrainian territories he "annexed" a few weeks ago . Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US October Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 10/24; US October Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 10/25; US September New Home Sales at 10am EST 10/26; US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.* Price is currently trending down at $3685 after forming a peak just below the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3760, the next support (minor) is at $3658. Volume is currently Low (high) and on track to favor sellers for a second consecutive session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3495, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending down at 45 after forming a peak at 48.5 as it approaches a retest of the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~42 as support. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 95 as it approaches a retest of max top. MACD remains bullish and is beginning to form a soft peak at -62, it's still technically testing the uptrend line from March 2020 as resistance at -76 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending down at 30 as Price is beginning to fall, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely aim to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3770 as resistance . However, if Price continues to breakdown here, it will likely formally retest $3658 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $3700.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 65% SPX, 35% Cash. * S&P September US PMI came in at 52 compared to 51.5 and beating the consensus estimate of 51.8. Though marginal, September PMI increasing as DXY continues to go up and inflation remains high implies that the demand outlook improved slightly since August, which is odd considering that many central banks continue to raise key interest rates around the world. The best explanation thus far is that reopening effects are still at play. Rumors of a Russian nuclear weapons convoy and the world's largest submarine with nuclear weapon capabilities being on the move broke earlier today . Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC Member Loretta Mester speaks twice on 10/06; September US Employment Situation at 830am EST 10/07; FOMC Members Kashkari, Waller and Williams speak on 10/07; FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 10/12; September US CPI at 830am EST 10/13; September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15.* Price is currently continuing to test $3658 minor support for what is now the seventh consecutive session and managed to close back above it in today's session. Volume is High (low) and broke a two day streak of seller dominance by favoring buyers in today's session; Price is currently trading in the fourth largest supply/demand zone. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3728, this is bullish at the moment. RSI is currently testing 38.06 resistance after bouncing off the uptrend line from August 2015 at ~33 (this is bullish), if it breaks above it will likely test the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~41 as resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 32 but is still technically testing 18.22 resistance; the next resistance is at 48. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending up at -108 after forming a trough at -110, although it's still technically testing the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~-83 it would have to break above ~-91 to crossover bullish. ADX is currently beginning to form a soft peak at 31 as Price is seeing buying pressure, this is mildly bullish at the moment as it signifies a potential trend change. If Price is able to close above $3658 minor support for a second consecutive session then it will likely test the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance . However, if Price breaks back down below $3658 minor support , it will likely retest $3517 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3658.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 20% SPX, 80% Cash. * BOUNCE WATCH . Equity Indexes and Equity Futures are down, as are Commodities, GBPUSD and EURUSD... meanwhile DXY, US Treasuries, VIX and Cryptos are up. Interestingly, Cryptos have been defiant recently in the sense that they have held key supports in what can be seen as an attempt to decouple from Equities that have continued to crash as DXY keeps pushing higher. Though decoupling sounds nice in theory, until it is confirmed this is likely a delayed reaction for Equities considering that Ethereum fell ~80% from its ATH and SPX has fallen ~25% from its ATH. Key Upcoming Dates: September US Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 09/27 ; August US New-Home Sales at 10am EST 09/27 ; 14th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate at 10am EST 09/27 ; Final US Q2 GDP revision at 830am EST 09/29; August US PCE price index at 830am EST 09/30.* Price is currently trending down at ~$3660 as it risks losing $3707 minor support, if it can't bounce here then the next support (minor) is at $3516. Volume is currently Low and on track to favor sellers for a fifth consecutive session if it closes today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3945, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 27.25 and is still technically testing 28.63 minor support as well as the uptrend line from August 2015 (32). Stochastic remains bearish and is currently attempting to complete a trough formation at max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -92.25 as it's still technically testing both -76.22 minor support and the uptrend line from August 2015 (~-82) as support. ADX is currently trending up at 25 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to bounce here it will have to close above $3707 minor support for it to potentially retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance . However, if Price continues to fall here then it will likely retest $3517 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3707.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD Daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 30% SPX, 70% Cash . *FOMC WATCH. This week is already off to a volatile start with Equities starting in the red and currently attempting to close in the green. Equities, Equity Futures, Cryptos, Energy, DXY and US 10yr Bonds are either flat or up while VIX, EURUSD, US 30yr Bonds and Gold are flat or down. Yesterday on CBS 60 Minutes, US President Biden publicly sent a message to Russian President Putin urging him not to resort to nuclear or chemical warfare in Ukraine and that the West would respond in kind if he were to; meanwhile, Putin is trying to recruit more Russian volunteers to fight in Ukraine. Key Upcoming Dates: US August Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 09/20; 13th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 09/20; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21); S&P US September Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 09/23.* Price is currently testing the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3850 as support. Volume is currently Low rack to favor buyers if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4090, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending sideways as it tests 38.06 support, if it breaks below this level then the next support is at the uptrend line from August 2015 at ~32. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently beginning to form a trough as it tests 18.32 support. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -50 with no signs of trough formation, it is still technically testing -43.84 support; if it loses this support then the next support (minor) is at -76.22 and would likely coincide with the uptrend line from March 2020. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 21 as Price continues falling, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely test $3938 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down below this level then it will likely retest $3706 minor support before potentially going lower to test $3508 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $3938.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD Daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% SPX, 65% Cash. * BOUNCE WATCH . All eyes are on the big FOMC statement at 2pm on 09/21. The big volatility and volume surge today was largely due to a whopping $3.2t OpEx (options expiration) . The UofM Consumer Sentiment Index for September came in at 59.5 compared to 58.2 in August, reflecting a slightly more optimistic consumer heading into Q4. Equities, Cryptos, Futures, US 10Y Treasury, DXY and Agriculture Commodities are all down or flat while VIX, 30Y Treasury, EURUSD, Precious Metals and Oil are up. Key Upcoming Dates: US August Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 09/20; 13th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 09/20; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21); S&P US September Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 09/23.* Price finished the day at $3873 after briefly testing the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 (~$3850) as support. Volume is High (high) was the highest since 06/17/22 due to a massive OpEx and favored sellers for a second consecutive session today. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4100, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down below the uptrend line from 01/27/22 at ~40 and testing 38 support with no signs of trough formation; the next support is at the uptrend line from August 2015 (~32). Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 26, the next support is at 18.32. MACD is currently testing -43.84 support with no signs of trough formation after a rejected bullish crossover attempt at the weak uptrend line from March 2020 (-22) as support; if -43.84 support doesn't hold then the next support is the strong uptrend line from March 2020 at -76.22 minor support. ADX is trending up slightly at 20 as Price continues to fall, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then the next likely target is a retest of $3938 minor resistance . However, if Price continues to fall here, it will likely formally retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3850 as support before potentially retesting $3706 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3938.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
2
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% SPX, 65% Cash. *August CPI surprised to the upside by increasing 0.1% to finish 8.3% higher than the year before compared to 8.1% consensus estimates, sending Equities, Cryptos, Commodities, Euro and Futures into the red. Today's winners are once again a combination of DXY, US Treasuries and VIX. Although it was minor, CPI going up rather than down is still a blow to the "inflation has peaked" crowd and is likely to inspire the Fed to go with a 75bps (or potentially higher) FFR hike on 09/21. Key Upcoming Dates: The Merge (Ethereum) at ~11pm EST 09/14 ; US August Retail Sales at 830am EST 09/15; 12th GDPNow US Q3 US GDP estimate 09/15; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 09/16; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21).* Price is currently trending down at ~$3960 as it breaks below the 50 MA at ~4k support and is on the verge of testing $3938 minor support. Volume remains Moderate (high) and is on track to break a four day streak of buyer dominance if it can close today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3911, this margin is bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 42 after being rejected by 53 resistance, the next support is the uptrend line from 01/27/22 at 38 support. Stochastic remains bullish but is currently trending down at 65 after forming a peak just below 76 resistance at 68, if it breaks below 60 it would be a bearish crossover; the next support is at 48. MACD remains bearish as it continues testing the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~-23 and is currently trending down at -26; if support from the uptrend line is lost, the next support is at -11.45. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 20 as Price is falling, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX can form a trough as Price continues to fall, this would be bearish. If Price is able to bounce off of $3938 minor support then it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$4k psychological resistance . However, if Price breaks down below $3938 minor support , it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3860 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $4k.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 15% SPX, 85% Cash. *BOUNCE WATCH. Equities continued to take a plunge today as Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester mentioned that she would like to see rates above 4% by year end and for most (if not all) of 2023. In one of my previous analyses I incorrectly mentioned that only three Fed members voted on Federal Funds Rate (FFR), it is in fact 12 Fed members (the 7 governors, the New York Regional Fed President and then 4 alternating Reserve Bank Presidents) which comprise the FOMC and vote on FFR. Loretta Mester is one of them. Markets are eagerly waiting to see the August Unemployment Rate in Friday's Jobs Report, if it comes in flat or lower, 75bps will likely become the preferred option come 09/21. However, if there is an uptick in Unemployment a 50bps rate-hike on 09/21 would still likely be on the table. Additional guidance will be provided by August's CPI on 09/13. Key Upcoming Dates: 9th GDPNow US GDP estimate at 10am EST 09/01 ; August Employment Situation 830am EST 09/02; August CPI at 830am EST 09/13.* Price is currently trending down at $3954 (after breaking below the 50 MA at $4k psychological support) and is technically retesting $3938 minor support. Volume is High and has favored sellers for four consecutive sessions, this is mildly bullish because of the . Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4190, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 37 and is technically testing the uptrend line from 01/27/22 at 38 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -5 with no signs of trough formation as it quickly approaches a test of -11.45 support (which would likely coincide with the uptrend line from March 2020). ADX remains trending sideways at 23 as Price continues to fall, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to bounce off of $3938 minor support then it will likely retest the 50 MA as resistance at ~$4k psychological resistance . However, if Price breaks down below $3938 minor support , it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3880 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $4k.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% SPX, 45% Cash. * The Fed Minutes confirmed preexisting knowledge that inflation is still the primary concern for the economy (making this release a low impact event) and that more downsizing of the Fed balance sheet + another 50bps is the baseline scenario for the next FOMC meeting on 09/21. Fed Staff (FOMC) agreed that 3.4% is the current peak target rate for FFR, the current range is 2.25%-2.5% implying that perhaps two 25bp rate hikes will follow September's anticipated 50bps hike to end the year. Some participants (Fed members) commented on how commodities (primarily energy and food) are likely to keep inflation up in the near term, some Participants mentioned that the policy adjustments are already seeing a substantial effect but almost all agreed that most of the effects haven't been felt yet, and most participants agreed that they support rate hikes until PCE is closer to the 2% long-run target. July US Retail Sales stayed roughly the same as in June and posted ~0% change compared to estimates of 0.1% (sales are still up 9.2% from July 2021), this surprised many analysts who expected more spending with the recent significant reduction in gas prices. Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US August PMI at 945am EST on 08/23; US Q2 Final GDP Estimate at 830am EST 08/25; US July PCE at 830am EST 08/26; UofM Final August Sentiment Survey Index at 10am EST 08/26; Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on 08/25-08/27.* Price is currently testing $4254 minor support after being rejected by the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 + the 50 MA at ~$4325. Volume remains consistently Moderate and broke a three day streak of buyer dominance with a seller dominated close in today's session; this was a capitulation type of initial reaction which is indicative of a critical resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $4220, this margin is bearish. RSI is currently testing 68.42 support after forming a soft peak at 73. Stochastic is bearish and currently trending down at 87; it remains in the 'bullish autobahn zone' which is mildly bullish at the moment. MACD remains bullish but is beginning to trend sideways as it forms a soft peak just above the ATH (91.78) at 93.54; it has been bullish for 54 days now, implying that perhaps this is more than just a bear market rally. ADX is currently trending up at 31 as Price continues to push higher, this is bullish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here at $4254 minor support then it will likely retest the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 + the 50 MA at ~$4300 as resistance . However, if Price loses $4254 minor support , it will likely retest $4175 support before potentially retesting the uptrend line from 06/16 at ~$4k psychological support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $4226.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
1
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPXUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 75% SPX, 25% Cash . *The BLS reported PPI numbers this morning and they followed in the footsteps of CPI by coming in lower than the month prior, from a 1% rise in June to a -0.5% drop in July. This was a surprise because consensus estimates had PPI rising by 0.2%, such a dramatic fall can largely be attributed to the 19% decline in national average retail gas prices since last month. Year over year, PPI registered its lowest rise from the 12 months prior at 7.6% (this is the lowest it's been since October 2021). This inflation data has markets believing that inflation has peaked and July's PCE numbers due on 08/26/22 will help to clarify whether the drawdown in inflation was largely due to a big pullback in gas prices. June's PCE numbers came in higher than estimates and, all things considered, the supply chain situation has only improved nominally which brings a bit of uncertainty regarding whether or not PCE will follow in the footsteps of CPI and PPI. Key dates next week: US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 830am EST 08/16; 5th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate at 915am EST 08/16 ; US Retail Sales at 830am EST 08/17.* Price is currently testing $4254 minor resistance (new resistance) after breaking out above $4175 resistance and flipping it to support (two consecutive closes above $4175). Volume remains Moderate and has favored sellers in three of the past four sessions even as Price is going higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $4109, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending down at 67 after being rejected at 68.42 resistance, the next support is at 53. Stochastic is currently crossing over bullish at 91, the next resistance is max top while the next support is at 76. MACD remains bullish for a 48th consecutive session and is currently beginning to form a soft peak at 74, the next support (minor) is at 55 and the next resistance is the ATH at 91.78. ADX is currently trending up at 25 as Price is pushing higher, this is bullish. If Price is able to break out above $4254 minor resistance then the next likely target is a retest of the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$4300 as resistance (which would probably coincide with the 200 MA). However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely formally retest $4175 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes) below $4175.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPXUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% SPX, 60% Cash . * CRITICAL RESISTANCE WATCH . Equities finished the session relatively flat as markets are sending mixed signals ahead of CPI and PPI data on 08/10 and 08/11. Crypto, Gold, VIX and Oil are trending higher while DXY and Treasuries are down. Palantir reported an earnings miss and revenue beat and forecasted weaker revenue guidance for the second half of 2022; this likely isn't a market moving event but is important because it not only reflects a slowdown in growth stock interest but it hints at a slowdown in economic activity ( due to their significant number of government contract delays ). Key dates this week: COIN earnings 08/09; 4th US Q3 GDP estimate at 10am (EST) 08/10 ; CPI at 830am (EST) 08/10 ; Disney earnings 08/10; and PPI at 830am (EST) 08/11 .* Price continues to retest $4175 major resistance and briefly broke above it in today's session. Volume remains Moderate and fairly balanced between buyers and sellers reaffirming that Price is trading at a critical resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $4060, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 63 after peaking at 66, it is also exhibiting minor Bearish Divergence; the next resistance is at 68 and next support at 53. Stochastic is currently crossing over bearish at 92 as it continues to trend sideways in the 'bullish autobahn'; the next support is at 76. MACD is currently beginning to form a soft peak at 68 and is still technically testing 55 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending up at 22.50 as Price continues its attempt to break above $4175, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will need to close above $4175 major resistance for two consecutive sessions in order to flip it to support; only after this will it be able to retest the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$4300 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $4100 before potentially retesting the uptrend line from 06/16/22 at $4k psychological support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $4175 .
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy