Stockmarkets
CHAMBLEFERT IDEAChamblfert looks like at a good demand zone. Expecting good one time bounce from this area and one green candle after long rail of back to back red candles.
NIFTYI see these levels on Nifty. Forgot to paste the good shorting trade opportunity yesterday, however shared 2 charts with analysis of gift nifty which hinted short for market from past 2 days. Don't go into patterns and take early trades trade only when levels break or sustain.
S&P 500 Index Most Bullish Signal In 15 YearsThis is why it is very clear, certain, that the stock market, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is set to grow in the coming months. Last week produced the highest volume session, on the bullish side, since April/May 2010, that's 15 years. Back then, when this signal showed up, this index went to grow for years non-stop.
The SPX also produced the strongest weekly session in several decades, maybe the strongest week ever, and a bounce happened (support found) exactly at the 0.618 retracement Fib.
This is all we need to know. When the bulls enter the market and do so with force, it is because the market is set to grow. The correction produced decline of 21%. This is pretty standard. The fact that the correction happened really fast, it means that it will also have a fast end.
The low is in. The correction is over. The S&P 500 Index is set to grow.
You can be certain. If you have any doubts, just ask the chart.
Namaste.
Two Shots at NQ: Because One's Never EnoughAlright, here’s the game plan – because let’s be honest, the market loves nothing more than pretending to break out, then snapping back just to mess with us.
🔥 The Setup:
I’m eyeing the Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures (June 2025), and I’m giving myself two shots at this breakout. Yeah, I know – ambitious. But the market’s been playing hard to get lately, so I’m hedging my enthusiasm.
💡 Why Two Long Entries?
Because, let’s face it, the first entry will probably get stopped out. I like to think of it as a “testing the waters” trade. If it works, great – I’m a genius. If not, well, it was just practice.
First Entry (The Optimist):
I’m jumping in if it breaks out, keeping the stop tight – because nothing says confidence like a cautious stop loss.
Second Entry (The Realist):
If the first entry faceplants, I’ll wait for the market to freak out and then calm down. Then, I’ll slide back in when it looks like it’s actually serious this time.
🧠 Managing the Chaos:
Short-Term Target: The last high – because if it doesn’t clear that, what’s the point?
Long-Term Target: The equal move – assuming the market doesn’t chicken out halfway.
Stop-Loss: Snug and sensible, because I’d rather not watch my account do a disappearing act.
Take profit targets are set where the equal move would complete – assuming the market cooperates for once.
💭 The Thought Process:
I’m not here to pretend I can predict the future – if I could, I’d be on a yacht, not posting on TradingView. But this setup gives me two chances to be right, which is at least one more than usual.
🔥 Your Thoughts?
If you’re also giving your trades a second (or third) chance, drop a comment. Or just let me know how your latest breakout fake-out went – because misery loves company. 😅
Is ETH - Next 3,000?ETHUSDT – Market Insight & Price Structure
Ethereum has been shaping a falling wedge pattern over the past 2 to 3 months—a structure that typically suggests a bullish reversal. Recently, price action confirmed a breakout above the key resistance zone between $2034 and $2040, along with a clean break of the upper trendline of the wedge. These movements point to a strong bullish signal, suggesting potential continuation to the upside.
Currently, Ethereum is approaching a significant resistance level around $2860. If price reaches this zone, we’ll be watching closely for confirmed reversal signals to consider a potential short/sell setup.
On the other hand, the primary bullish trend trade remains valid near the $2160–$2150 support range. A long position will only be considered upon confirmation, such as a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, market structure shift (MSS), or other trusted technical signals.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR).
What Is Random Walk Theory and Its Implications in Trading? What Is Random Walk Theory and Its Implications in Trading?
Random walk theory argues that market prices move erratic, making it difficult to analyse past data for an advantage. It suggests that technical and fundamental analysis provide little to no edge, as prices instantly reflect all available information. While some traders embrace this idea, others challenge it. This article explores the theory, its implications, criticisms, and what it means for traders navigating financial markets.
What Is Random Walk Theory?
Random walk theory reflects the idea that financial markets move erratic, making it impossible to analyse past price data for an advantage. The theory argues that price changes are random and independent, meaning past movements don’t influence future direction. This challenges both technical and fundamental analysis, arguing traders who attempt to time the market are essentially guessing.
The concept was first introduced by Maurice Kendall in 1953, who found no meaningful patterns in stock prices. Later, Burton Malkiel popularised it in A Random Walk Down Wall Street (1973), arguing that a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a stock list would perform as well as professional traders. The underlying principle is that markets are efficient, instantly reflecting all available information.
The theory states that prices truly follow a random path, so a trader analysing charts or company reports has no statistical edge. It’s like flipping a coin—the next move is unrelated to the last. This has major implications: active trading strategies become questionable, and passive investing (e.g., index funds) may be a more logical approach.
However, while randomness can explain short-term price movements, longer-term trends still emerge. Factors like liquidity, institutional flows, and investor psychology create periods where price action deviates from pure randomness. This is where the debate arises—are markets entirely random, or do trends exist that skilled traders can take advantage of?
Understanding random walk theory helps frame this debate, offering insight into why some traders dismiss traditional analysis while others continue searching for patterns in price action.
Theoretical Foundations and Key Assumptions
The random walk hypothesis is based on mathematical models and probability, arguing that financial markets follow a stochastic process—where future price movements are independent of past trends. It builds on several key principles that shape how economists and traders view market efficiency and price behaviour.
Market Efficiency and Information Absorption
A core assumption of random walk models is that markets are efficient, meaning all available information is already reflected in asset prices. If new data emerges, prices adjust instantly, making it impossible to gain an edge through analysis. This aligns with the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), which classifies efficiency into three forms:
- Weak form: Prices already reflect past movements, rendering technical analysis ineffective.
- Semi-strong form: Fundamental data (e.g., earnings reports) is priced in immediately, limiting the usefulness of research.
- Strong form: Even insider information is priced in, meaning no trader has an advantage.
Brownian Motion and Stochastic Processes
The theory borrows from Brownian motion, a model describing random movement, often used in random walk algorithms to simulate stock price fluctuations. Prices are treated as a series of independent events, much like molecules colliding in a gas.
No Clear Patterns
If prices truly follow a random walk, trends and cycles do not exist in a statistically significant way. This challenges traders who attempt to use historical data to analyse future movements.
Implications for Traders and Investors
If random walks in trading are truly the norm, then analysing market movements using historical price data is no more effective than flipping a coin. This has significant implications for both traders and long-term investors.
For traders relying on technical analysis, random walk theory presents a major problem. If price changes are independent, then tools like support and resistance, trendlines, and moving averages hold no real value. The same applies to fundamental analysis—if all available information is instantly priced in, then even detailed financial research doesn’t offer an edge.
This would mean day traders and swing traders aren’t consistently able to generate higher returns than the broader market. It’s why proponents of the theory often argue that attempting to time the market is a losing battle in the long run.
However, many supporters of the random walk theory advocate for passive investing, arguing that since, for example, individual stock movements are erratic, holding a diversified index fund is a more rational approach. Instead of trying to outperform the market, investors simply track it, reducing costs associated with frequent trading.
Criticism and Counterarguments
While random walk theory argues that market movements are independent, real-world trading data argues that markets are not entirely random. Critics point to patterns, inefficiencies, and the effectiveness of certain trading strategies as evidence that price action isn’t purely a coin flip.
Market Inefficiencies Exist
One of the biggest challenges to random walk theory is that markets display recurring inefficiencies. Certain price behaviours, like momentum effects, mean reversion, and seasonal trends, suggest that past movements do have an impact on future price action. For example:
- Momentum strategies: Studies show that assets that have performed well over the past three to twelve months tend to continue in the same direction. If price action were purely random, these trends wouldn’t exist.
- Earnings reactions: Stock prices often drift in the direction of an earnings surprise for weeks after the announcement. If markets were perfectly efficient, all adjustments would happen instantly.
Real Results
Random walk theory suggests that no trader can systematically outperform the market over time. Yet, some fund managers and proprietary traders have done exactly that. Warren Buffett’s long-term track record is often cited as evidence that skill, not just luck, plays a role in investing and trading. Similarly, hedge funds employing quantitative strategies have consistently generated returns, challenging the idea that price movements are entirely random.
The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis
A more flexible alternative is Andrew Lo’s Adaptive Markets Hypothesis, which seeks to reconcile the EMH’s claim that markets are rational and efficient with behavioural economists’ argument that markets are, in reality, irrational and inefficient. Instead of being entirely random, markets evolve based on participants’ actions, allowing patterns to emerge.
While random walk theory provides a useful framework, real market behaviour often deviates from its assumptions, leaving room for traders to find potential opportunities beyond pure randomness.
Practical Considerations for Traders
Even if markets exhibit randomness in the short term, traders still need a structured approach to analysing price action and managing risk. While random walk theory challenges traditional methods, it doesn’t mean traders should abandon analysis altogether. Instead, it highlights the importance of probabilistic thinking, risk control, and understanding market conditions.
Short-Term vs. Long-Term Price Behaviour
Markets may behave randomly on a daily or weekly basis, but longer-term trends can emerge due to liquidity shifts, institutional positioning, and macroeconomic factors. Traders focusing on short-term moves often work with probabilities, using statistical models and historical tendencies to assess risk and potential trade opportunities.
Risk Management in an Uncertain Market
If price movements are largely unpredictable, risk control becomes even more important. Traders typically limit their exposure using stop losses, position sizing, and diversification to avoid being caught on the wrong side of market volatility. Instead of focusing on certainty, they manage the probability of different outcomes.
The Role of Quantitative Strategies
While traditional chart patterns may be questioned under random walk theory, quantitative and algorithmic strategies analyse large datasets to identify inefficiencies. High-frequency trading firms, for example, exploit microsecond price discrepancies that aren’t visible to the human eye.
Rather than proving whether markets are fully random, traders adapt by testing, refining, and adjusting their strategies based on what works in real conditions. The most experienced traders accept uncertainty but structure their approach around probabilities and risk management.
The Bottom Line
Random walk theory challenges the idea that past price movements provide an edge, arguing that markets move erratically. While some traders accept this and focus on passive investing, others analyse inefficiencies to find potential opportunities.
FAQ
What Is the Random Walk Theory?
Random walk theory suggests that asset prices move unpredictably, with past movements having no influence on future direction. It argues that markets are efficient, meaning all available information is instantly reflected in prices. This challenges the idea that traders can consistently outperform the market using technical or fundamental analysis.
What Is the Meaning of the Random Walk Fallacy?
Critics of the theory argue that the random walk fallacy is the mistaken belief that financial markets move in a completely random manner, disregarding factors such as fundamental analysis, technical patterns, and behavioural finance that can influence price trends. This misconception may cause traders to overlook potential opportunities for strategic analysis.
What Are the Criticisms of Random Walk Theory?
Critics argue that markets display patterns, inefficiencies, and behavioural biases that contradict pure randomness. Studies on momentum, mean reversion and liquidity effects show that past price movements do influence future trends.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Monster Beverage: A Rally Built on Solid Ground?Monster Beverage recently achieved a significant milestone, reaching a new record high after a multi-week rally. This ascent, surpassing its previous peak, indicates robust market confidence. While the proximity of an earnings report may have initially fueled anticipation, the sustained upward movement suggests that investors are reacting to more fundamental strengths within the company.
A primary driver behind this rally is the increasingly positive sentiment from financial analysts, evidenced by multiple upward revisions to price targets. Complementing this is strong support from institutional investors, who collectively own a majority of the stock and have been actively increasing their holdings. This significant institutional accumulation provides a solid foundation and reflects conviction in Monster's future prospects.
The company's operational performance, particularly the resilience and international growth of its core energy drink segment, underpins investor optimism, effectively counteracting challenges in other areas like the alcohol market. Furthermore, Monster's aggressive share buyback program signals management's confidence and enhances shareholder value. These combined factors – external validation, institutional backing, operational strength, and capital returns – appear to be the key forces propelling Monster Beverage shares to new heights, despite some market headwinds.
Netflix price correction will continueBased on the 2-month Cash Data chart, it is quite clear that the diametric pattern is completing.
Considering that the diametric wave-(B) has taken a lot of complexity and time, it seems that the wave-(F) is not completed and has little complexity and time, so we considered two scenarios for the wave-(F):
Scenario 1
Considering that after the wave-(E) there was a rapid downward movement, the wave-(F) will become an irregular contracting triangle, then the wave-(G) will start and grow
Scenario 2
The wave-(F) can turn into a flat pattern with a strong wave-b. In this type of flat, usually the wave-c cannot retrace the entire wave-b, as a result, the wave-c of this type of flat pattern can turn into a terminal pattern, and then the diametric wave-(G) of a higher degree will start.
Is a Tesla Stock Rebound Imminent?Tesla's stock has recently faced volatility, partly due to first-quarter 2025 delivery figures that did not meet some market expectations. Despite this, several significant factors suggest a potential for upward movement in the share price. As the stock hovers around $292 in late April 2025, market observers are closely watching for catalysts that could shift sentiment and drive value appreciation for the electric vehicle and energy company.
Key indicators pointing towards a potential rebound include notable insider activity and the highly anticipated launch of a dedicated robotaxi service. A Tesla board member and Airbnb co-founder recently purchased over $1 million in TSLA stock, marking the first insider buy of this magnitude in approximately five years. This action signals strong internal confidence. Furthermore, the planned June launch of a robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, using autonomous Model Y vehicles, is viewed as a transformative step that could open substantial new revenue streams and redefine Tesla's market position.
Adding to the bullish sentiment is unusual activity in the options market, where a significant investor placed a large bet on a substantial price increase in the near term through out-of-the-money call options. While recent delivery misses and concerns regarding external factors have contributed to past stock pressure, the combination of insider conviction, a looming disruptive service launch, and aggressive bullish options trading suggests that the market may be poised for a significant reaction to upcoming positive developments. Investors are keenly focused on the successful execution of the robotaxi strategy as a critical determinant of future stock performance.
Why Did 3M Stock Soar Despite Tariff Clouds?Shares of industrial giant 3M Co. experienced a significant rally following the release of its first-quarter 2025 financial results. The surge was primarily driven by the company reporting adjusted earnings and total net sales that exceeded Wall Street's expectations. This performance signaled a stronger operational footing than analysts had anticipated.
The positive results stemmed from several key factors highlighted in the report. 3M demonstrated solid organic sales growth and achieved notable adjusted operating margin expansion. This margin improvement reflects the effectiveness of management's ongoing cost-cutting initiatives and strategic focus on operational efficiency, contributing directly to double-digit growth in earnings per share during the quarter.
While the company did warn about potential future impacts on 2025 profit due to rising global trade tensions and tariffs, management also detailed proactive strategies to mitigate these risks. Plans include supply chain adjustments, pricing actions, and leveraging their global manufacturing network, potentially increasing U.S. production. The company maintained its full-year adjusted earnings guidance, notably stating that this outlook already incorporates the anticipated tariff effects. Investors likely responded positively to the combination of strong quarterly performance and clear actions to address identified headwinds.
"BIST100: Triangle Signals 20-25% Drop"BIST100 (XU100)
In the monthly Cash Data, we see that a Reverse Neutral Triangle has formed and the post-pattern movement (the downward movement after wave-(e)) has also confirmed it and it seems that BIST100 is preparing for at least a 20-25% correction.
If the beginning of wave-(b) is broken, i.e. the number 7189, the correction of this index can continue to 5705.
Daily Price Action: S&p500 SPX Tuesday 4/15/2025 In this video, we are looking into the potential daily price action of SPX.
Price Action: Nasdaq NDX Monday 4/14/2025In this video, we will be looking at the Nasdaq (NDX) on the daily chart and its potential Movement throughout Monday 4/14/2025.
Price Action: S&P500 SPX Monday 4/14/2025In this video, we are looking at the S&P500 Index and its potential movement on the Daily Chart for Monday 4/14/2025.
SSE Composite Index CorrectionThe SSE Composite Index, the primary index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, reflects the performance of diverse companies across various industries and serves as a gauge of China’s economy. It is calculated based on the market value and stock prices of these companies.
According to daily Cash Data (1D), the SSE Index, after a 36% rise from September 18 to 30, 2024, entered a corrective phase that has lasted about 4 months.
Based on the time and price similarity of the waves, it appears the correction is forming a diametric pattern. Wave (e) is likely complete, and wave (f) has begun. Wave (g) may end at 3,138 or 2,945, though the completion of wave (f) will allow a more precise prediction of wave (g) endpoint.
This diametric pattern will likely take another 2 to 3 months to complete..
Some say bitcoin is an un-correlated asset. What about XRP ???This chart clearly shows how XRP is uncorrelated to the price of the S&P !!
Some experts in crypto say that Bitcoin is an un-correlated asset. However, if bitcoin is, XRP is even more so.
The chart moreover shows how the price of XRP broke out of an 7 YEAR BEAR FLAG !!!
It broke down decisevely in november 2024.
At the present moment it is making a halt, drawing a bear flag (n° 2) as it did after it broke down of a very similar bear flag in March of 2017 (n° 1).
How do you think this will resolve ?
Any more questions ?
This is a very bearish chart - for the SPX !!!
Correction has begun in SPXWe can almost say that 4800 has been touched and given that the downward movement was very fast, this wave is most likely the A-wave of a triangle and the upward waves that are forming after the 90-day suspension of the stalls are considered as a corrective wave.
Previous SPX Analysis
Quantum's ZIM Trading Guide 4/8/25
NYSE:ZIM
(ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd.) - Sector: Industrials (Shipping)
Sentiment:
--Bearish (slight softening). Pre-market put volume softened, RSI likely ~35 (down from ~38 with a -2.8% drop from $12.9608 to $12.591), X posts overnight mixed—tariff fears dominate, but LNG fleet news (10 new 11,500 TEU vessels announced April 8) offers faint hope, suggesting a less aggressive sell-off than March’s lows.
Tariff Impact:
--Severe. 10% universal tariffs raise fuel and container costs, with 46% Vietnam tariffs threatening Asia-U.S. routes (70%+ revenue). Sentiment overshadows fundamentals, though LNG fleet modernization and freight rate resilience provide a slight buffer.
News/Catalysts:
--Consumer Credit (April 8) could signal trade demand—weak data may deepen ZIM’s slide; X posts on the $2.3B LNG charter deal (announced April 8) and potential freight rate stabilization (e.g., Red Sea tensions) might spark a relief rally today.
Technical Setup:
--Weekly Chart:
---HVN near $15 as resistance (March 25 high: $15.2512), weekly low ~$12.4106 as support
---Downtrend (8-week EMA < 13-week < 48-week, reflecting $12–$20 range since March).
---RSI ~35 (weakening, near oversold),
---MACD below signal (histogram narrowing),
---Bollinger Bands at lower band,
---Donchian Channels below midline,
---Williams %R -80 (oversold).
-One-Hour Chart:
---Support at $12.81 (April 7 prev. close proxy), resistance at $13.547 (April 7 high), weekly confluence.
---RSI ~37, MACD below signal (histogram less negative),
---Bollinger Bands at lower band,
--- Donchian Channels below midline,
---Williams %R -78 (easing from oversold).
-10-Minute Chart:
---Pre-market drop to $12.591, 8/13/48 EMAs down, RSI ~35, MACD flat near zero.
Options Data:
--GEX: Bearish (softening)—pinning near $12.9608 eases pre-market, dealers less aggressive.
--DEX: Bearish—put delta leads but with reduced intensity.
--IV: High—~55–60% vs. norm 45–50%, reflecting tariff-driven volatility.
--OI: Put-heavy—OI concentrated below $13, capping upside momentum.
Directional Bias: Bearish (softening). GEX’s fading pinning reduces downside lock, DEX’s put delta sustains selling but softens, high IV supports volatility without sharp drops, and put-heavy OI anchors lower—bearish with less conviction.
Sympathy Plays:
--SBLK (Star Bulk Carriers): Falls if ZIM dumps (shipping correlation), rises if ZIM rebounds.
--MATX (Matson, Inc.): Drops with ZIM downside, gains if ZIM recovers.
--Opposite Mover: ZIM dumps → defensives like KO rally; ZIM rallies → SBLK/MATX surge.
Sector Positioning with RRG:
--Sector: Industrials (Shipping)
---RRG Position: Lagging Quadrant (slight improvement). ZIM’s pre-market softening from $12.9608 eases its lag vs. XLI, buoyed by LNG news.
Targets: Bullish +4% ($13.50, hourly resistance); Bearish -5% ($12.00, near April low).
Quantum's IWM Trading Guide 4/8/25IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) - Sector: Broad Small-Cap ETF (Russell 2000)
Sentiment:
--Bearish (softening). Pre-market put volume eased, RSI 44 up from 42, X posts overnight hint at an oversold bounce despite tariff fears, suggesting a less dire tone.
Tariff Impact:
--Moderate. Industrials/financials exposure persists.
News/Catalysts:
--Consumer Credit (April 8) could spark a relief rally if strong; X posts on tariff delays offer faint hope, though bearish bias lingers.
Technical Setup
-Weekly Chart:
---HVN above as resistance, weekly low as support.
---Downtrend (8-week EMA < 13-week < 48-week).
---RSI 44 (less weak), MACD below signal (histogram narrowing)
---Bollinger Bands near lower band,
---Donchian Channels below midline,
---Williams %R -70 (easing from -74).
-One-Hour Chart:
---Support at yesterday’s low, resistance at midday high, weekly confluence.
---RSI 42 (up from 40),
---MACD below signal (histogram less negative),
---Bollinger Bands near lower band,
---Donchian Channels below midline,
---Williams %R -72 (up from -76).
-10-Minute Chart:
---Pre-market bounce attempt, 8/13/48 EMAs flat (less steep),
---RSI 42 (up from 38),
---MACD flat near zero.
Options Data:
---GEX: Bearish (softening)—pinning pressure eased slightly overnight.
---DEX: Bearish (softening)—put delta leads but less aggressively.
---IV: Moderate—25–30% vs. 20–25% norm, steady volatility.
---OI: Put-heavy—high OI below close persists.
---Directional Bias: Bearish (softening). GEX’s reduced pinning suggests less dealer-driven downside, DEX’s put delta bias weakens, moderate IV supports some volatility but not extreme moves, and put-heavy OI anchors prices lower—still bearish but with less conviction.
Sympathy Plays:
--TNA (Direxion Small Cap Bull 3X): Falls 3x if IWM dumps, rises if IWM rebounds.
--TZA (Direxion Small Cap Bear 3X): Gains if IWM dumps, fades if IWM rallies.
--Opposite Mover: IWM dumps → TZA rallies; IWM rallies → TNA surges.
Sector Positioning with RRG:
--Sector: Broad Small-Cap ETF (Russell 2000).
--RRG Position: Lagging Quadrant. Tariff/rate drag persists.
Top 5 Movers (Russell 2000): SMCI (+2%), MARA (+1.5%), RIOT (+1%), CVNA (+0.8%), PLUG (+0.5%).
Bottom 5 Movers (Russell 2000): AMC (-3.5%), RKT (-3%), UPWK (-2.5%), ZETA (-2%), RUN (-1.8%).
Bitcoin Weekly Analysis #BTC is currently holding around it's minor support i.e,$73777.
Breakdown of this support can lead it to it's Demand Zone ($69519 - $65260).
Otherwise,
We can see a potential reverse from this area.
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) BUY SETUPlooking for a strong recovery on us steel sector in 2025 and 2026.
trade carefully.
good luck.
Tariff FUD is reking ports. SPY 505 First Stop. 460 Second.Trading Fam,
It's no surprise that Trump's implementation of high tariffs would cause initial FUD. This can be observed in the massive spikes on the $VIX. What is unknown and has caught many traders by surprise, myself included, is how substantial of a drop would be incurred by investor uncertainty.
Initially, it did appear that 500 might hold. That was a huge support. I knew if it broke, the sell-off would be deep. But I held hope that the market would hold above this trendline. It did not. So, yesterday and today, investors who held are incurring substantial losses.
For those who were smarter than me and sold at or near the top, congratulations! You've saved yourself some duress and cash. Now, some are calling this the beginning of a longer bear market. I still don't see it that way. Honestly (and I know this will be hard to believe), I still see the SPY hitting my target #3 at 670-700 before 2026 comes to an end. Longer-term we still remain in a massive secular bull market since 2009 and to break this long-term trend, the SPY would actually have to break below 300. That is a long way down and I just don't see that happening, though as always, I definitely could be wrong.
Shorter-term I am seeing two prominent areas of support. The first has almost been reached at 505. If I would have played this correctly, I'd be DCA'ing in my first load of cash here. The second area of support is at around 460 and slightly rising daily. This would be where I DCA'ed in another load of cash. However, if that broke, I'd exit immediately and reassess the charts. 300 is a long way down, but over the past 5 years we have seen some extraordinary market price action and volatility. TBH, even the best of us technicians are struggling to understand the larger macro-economic picture, but I'd wager to say that tariff fears may be overexaggerated as market reactions often tend to be.
One interesting note is that crypto price action no longer seems to correlate and prices have help up surprisingly well. Could this be our first indicator that the markets are due to turn up again in a few weeks/months? Unknown. But I can promise you I'll be watching this all closely.
✌️Stew
