Get started

Stockmarkets

Big Head and Shoulder Pattern 10 yearHey all just showing the ten year is looking like it will fall in anticipation of the fed relaxing its polices as we are in recessions and the labor market might weaken with the layoff announced by the big boys (tesla, Apple, google etc.) the distance of the head to neck bring the target to 2% which is less then current interest rates so I don't know if it will go that far with out something breaking in the economy first to cause this sudden shift in fed policy. Although Bull will put this in there case of the bottom is in history does not favor that philosophy. If you actually do research at the old peaks in the 10yr yield you will see markets usually collapse with the yield. Examples are 1999-2000 as the tech crash started, 2007-2008 as the GFC started and even in 2018 yields started to fall and the market bottomed after another +10% fall so watch out dont get FOMO in current rallies. Like and Follow for more Trade ideas and Financial education.
TVC:US10YShort
by jackwheeler
SP500 weekly areas of interest. SP500 seem to be moving in a range at the moment. Not sure if this break to the upside or downside. For the moment I'm sticking to the range in the box and wait for the breakout up or down to see where the next move will take us. Multiple areas of support below, but a fairly decent move down to get to those. Will we? I do not know. If the FED comes out with a 100 basis point interest rate hike, things might take a hard dip. (Even after 4 years of trading) I'm still learning so any comments or corrections will be most welcome. I'm not trying to guess the direction but simply to find the areas of interest and be prepared for any scenario. Very volatile market so capital preservation is the primary goal here. Take small profits and compound it. Find strong areas of support and resistance and trade accordingly. Trade the range and not the news. Inflation is high and so there should be no surprise each time to FED speaks, but there always seems to be some emotional sell off or pump each time. So watch out for those. The biggest transfer of wealth of our times is happening at the moment, so make sure you fall on the right side. Do not over complicate things. Stick to your levels and do not fall for "pumpamentals" Remember this: YOU DO NOT NEED TO FIND THE EXACT BOTTOM OR TOP . Just need to find a good entry to take some money out of the market each time. As a great trader once told me, when everything is bullish, look for a reason to be bearish (and vice versa) and you will never get surprised. Heard mentality will get you crushed in this market, so do not blindly follow any signals. Help yourself by learning some charting. Simply learning to identify support and resistance will save you some money. Take it one step at a time and you will get there. There will always be a new indicator or magical new tool that will promise the world. Remember this, most indicators are reactive tools and will give you a signal once a significant part of the move is already done for. Everything you need trade can be found on tradingview and they are available for free. Many of your fellow traders have worked hard and have made many of their tools available to you for free. You do not need to spend 1000s to buy an indicator that will give you your dreams. If this is your first bear market experience, hold steady and preserve your capital at all cost. Do not guess the bottom or short the bottom. When you make it to the other side of this market, it will change your life. You would have learnt a lot of things that will help you understand the market and will help you make better financial decisions in the future. Final note. Everyone makes money in the market, but only a few manage to keep it. Be one of the few and not the many. Good Luck with your trades and lets try to find ways to help each other to find a life of financial freedom.
SP:SPX
by MikePillai
SPX The Worst May Be Yet To ComeAnyone who has followed me for a while has already seen some iteration of this chart, but I bring it up again today because it has proven to be one of the most reliable charts to date. It is essential to understand when we are looking at charts, sometimes it is not about the actual chart itself but rather what the data means and the implications. We are in unprecedented times. The FED is behind the curve and now they are trying to gain back control of the Inflation Train but there is only one problem; The train has already left the station. Prediction after prediction of Inflation is "Transitory", "Peaking", "Controlled". They even have gone as far to say Inflation was a "good" thing. www.washingtonpost.com www.forbes.com www.cnbc.com This one in particular used to be Titled "Why the inflation we're seeing now is a good thing" But they have since changed that to something more cryptic as if we the people are dumb: www.msnbc.com I just wanted to establish that before I went any deeper. Credibility is not seen in today's world. Currently, Total Revolving Credit is at a historical all-time high by a long shot. (Please go check out a chart representing this data) It not only represents the hardship most are suffering but it solidifies the fact that most can't maintain their current lifestyle with cash. As financial situations grow tighter, it forces people to then start running their credit in the face of the "Recession". This is not only bad for now but it condemns the future as well. Because that problem is only solved by rapid economic deceleration or by propping the market back up with Easy Monetary Policy. But there is a critical issue here, the FED can't possibly pivot Dovish now. Their party has only just started. QE/Stimulus, paired with Macro cyclical patterns, and Geopolitical tensions force the FED to stay the course. If they pivot now, not only will no real problem be solved, but it will inherently make them worse. Back on the Credit Delima, we have also seen the sharpest credit impulse contraction in 10 years. Liquidity runs all markets, when liquidity is dried, it causes mayhem. Okay so what about USOIL and why is it on the chart? Well as you can see, each time USOIL has significantly deviated from its current trend, it has led to a recession. 6 Times in the last 20+ years has this perfectly signaled economic hardship. This time is no different. Even further still, 2 out of the last 3 times, it was not until after USOIL has peaked is when the most pain was to be had. Combine this with 50 Year High Inflation, War, FED hiking into a slowing economy, QT, Supply Chain shocks, Sanctions/Embargoes, Energy soaring, and Gas at $4-5 in every state in America for the first time in history. Ask yourself this, if this recipe isn't enough for concern, what exactly is? Continuing on, let's focus on a few other charts: First, let's just take a look at where SPX & NDQ currently stand: As you can see, both have only just now reached Mid-Channel and still have quite a ways until the bottom of the channel. Second, let's remind ourselves of the US10Y-US02Y Curve inversion that took place a few months back. This inversion has predicted the last 6+ Recessions, just as the exponential rise in Energy has. Here is my first post explaining this correlation with SPX: Here is an Updated View: As you can see, it may even be headed for a second Inversion which would likely be another huge red flag. Third, Lets look at the Tech Leader $AAPL and see where it stands. $AAPL represents the leader of the tech market and where AAPL goes, the market goes. Here is my most recent post: Fourth lets look at the DXY and consider where it stands. It currently is in the midst of a 30+ year breakout, further proving the economic hardship most are facing. Furthermore, in times of great fear and inflation, money is usually the last thing people want but yet here we see the opposite playing out. Complete deviation of a regular historical trend: And Fifth, let's just speculate on the worst possible outcome here, which I did a little while back when I Noticed Elon Musk somehow timed the exact top in the Market (See for yourself below): I thought his perfect timing was really strange and led to the credibility of his words. Although the chart seems extreme now, from a technical standpoint it absolutely is possible as I've laid out. Although it's important to consider the worst, it is critical you don't expect the worst. Many things can change between now and the end of the year which is why it is important to stay updated and pivot when needed. I can honestly go on about specific factors such as the housing market and the VC's/Hedge Funds controlling supply while cutting out the regular buyer. Not to mention companies like Zillow doing the same exact thing, basically acting like a Broker to the overall housing market. Cutting out an entire class of buyers because theoretically, they don't ever have to sell to regular families just trying to buy a home. Global food shocks from inflation make fertilizer unaffordable to harvest the right yield of crop. As well as the Ukraine War making it even more difficult. China causing supply chaos because they have locked down their country again, 2 years into the pandemic. This thesis is only valid in the scenario it takes far longer to tackle these challenges listed above. If the FED and the overall World Economy can begin to tame these challenges better than what we have seen thus far, things will begin to become more positive. No matter what, these challenges must be solved not only for the health of the economy but for the betterment of the people. If you've made it this far, I thank you immensely and you will be rewarded for putting in the effort now to understand the big picture. Leave any opinions below;
SP:SPX
by NoOneWhoIsSomeone
123
#SPX daily update 7-6-22Jobs Numbers and FOMC Minuets ended up being relatively stale over all, making SPX to be a consolidation day until we saw a late breakout attempt over our 3838 level. We did close over this level. For tomorrow I would look for 3838 to hold early in the morning for a possible push to our 3900 Target. We have a smaller level formed around 3870 now as well. Calls will be easiest now over 3770. Id wait for 3800 for puts back towards 3741. Once SPX can close over 3927 we can see another possible momentum move up to 4000. We are still in a bear trending Market so you have to trade this still as a “Bear” Market Rally. Bears will be eyeing the 3900 and 3927 levels to get in on the next leg down. Even at 4000 that’s only a 10% typical Bear Market Pullback so this is not out of the question just yet. Continue to lock in profits along the way to protect your capital and when available you can allocate a % of your profits to continue the trade. There are plenty of opportunities ahead.
SP:SPX
by MoneyFlow_Options_Community
Time to Buy Stocks? TQQQ Analysis -73% There is something to be said about speculation. Here we have the QQQ 3X fund, testing a key area. Not only are we testing a key area, but "large-risk" (largER anyway) is currently sitting -68% from the all time high.... Even more weird, when the whole world economy was shut down in 2020, TQQQ contracted -73.28%; oddly enough, at least in this view... we bounced at... -73.28%. (these measurements could be off by a few percentage points I just measured it once and they happened to be the same measurement. Anyway, this looks like a good risk reward entry. I have bought and will continue to provide updates. For now, I have bought with the expectation that price will test the all time high from here. God bless.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by ChiefMacro
8