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Big Head and Shoulder Pattern 10 yearHey all just showing the ten year is looking like it will fall in anticipation of the fed relaxing its polices as we are in recessions and the labor market might weaken with the layoff announced by the big boys (tesla, Apple, google etc.) the distance of the head to neck bring the target to 2% which is less then current interest rates so I don't know if it will go that far with out something breaking in the economy first to cause this sudden shift in fed policy. Although Bull will put this in there case of the bottom is in history does not favor that philosophy. If you actually do research at the old peaks in the 10yr yield you will see markets usually collapse with the yield. Examples are 1999-2000 as the tech crash started, 2007-2008 as the GFC started and even in 2018 yields started to fall and the market bottomed after another +10% fall so watch out dont get FOMO in current rallies. Like and Follow for more Trade ideas and Financial education.
TVC:US10YShort
by jackwheeler
SP500 weekly areas of interest. SP500 seem to be moving in a range at the moment. Not sure if this break to the upside or downside. For the moment I'm sticking to the range in the box and wait for the breakout up or down to see where the next move will take us. Multiple areas of support below, but a fairly decent move down to get to those. Will we? I do not know. If the FED comes out with a 100 basis point interest rate hike, things might take a hard dip. (Even after 4 years of trading) I'm still learning so any comments or corrections will be most welcome. I'm not trying to guess the direction but simply to find the areas of interest and be prepared for any scenario. Very volatile market so capital preservation is the primary goal here. Take small profits and compound it. Find strong areas of support and resistance and trade accordingly. Trade the range and not the news. Inflation is high and so there should be no surprise each time to FED speaks, but there always seems to be some emotional sell off or pump each time. So watch out for those. The biggest transfer of wealth of our times is happening at the moment, so make sure you fall on the right side. Do not over complicate things. Stick to your levels and do not fall for "pumpamentals" Remember this: YOU DO NOT NEED TO FIND THE EXACT BOTTOM OR TOP . Just need to find a good entry to take some money out of the market each time. As a great trader once told me, when everything is bullish, look for a reason to be bearish (and vice versa) and you will never get surprised. Heard mentality will get you crushed in this market, so do not blindly follow any signals. Help yourself by learning some charting. Simply learning to identify support and resistance will save you some money. Take it one step at a time and you will get there. There will always be a new indicator or magical new tool that will promise the world. Remember this, most indicators are reactive tools and will give you a signal once a significant part of the move is already done for. Everything you need trade can be found on tradingview and they are available for free. Many of your fellow traders have worked hard and have made many of their tools available to you for free. You do not need to spend 1000s to buy an indicator that will give you your dreams. If this is your first bear market experience, hold steady and preserve your capital at all cost. Do not guess the bottom or short the bottom. When you make it to the other side of this market, it will change your life. You would have learnt a lot of things that will help you understand the market and will help you make better financial decisions in the future. Final note. Everyone makes money in the market, but only a few manage to keep it. Be one of the few and not the many. Good Luck with your trades and lets try to find ways to help each other to find a life of financial freedom.
SP:SPX
by MikePillai
SPX The Worst May Be Yet To ComeAnyone who has followed me for a while has already seen some iteration of this chart, but I bring it up again today because it has proven to be one of the most reliable charts to date. It is essential to understand when we are looking at charts, sometimes it is not about the actual chart itself but rather what the data means and the implications. We are in unprecedented times. The FED is behind the curve and now they are trying to gain back control of the Inflation Train but there is only one problem; The train has already left the station. Prediction after prediction of Inflation is "Transitory", "Peaking", "Controlled". They even have gone as far to say Inflation was a "good" thing. www.washingtonpost.com www.forbes.com www.cnbc.com This one in particular used to be Titled "Why the inflation we're seeing now is a good thing" But they have since changed that to something more cryptic as if we the people are dumb: www.msnbc.com I just wanted to establish that before I went any deeper. Credibility is not seen in today's world. Currently, Total Revolving Credit is at a historical all-time high by a long shot. (Please go check out a chart representing this data) It not only represents the hardship most are suffering but it solidifies the fact that most can't maintain their current lifestyle with cash. As financial situations grow tighter, it forces people to then start running their credit in the face of the "Recession". This is not only bad for now but it condemns the future as well. Because that problem is only solved by rapid economic deceleration or by propping the market back up with Easy Monetary Policy. But there is a critical issue here, the FED can't possibly pivot Dovish now. Their party has only just started. QE/Stimulus, paired with Macro cyclical patterns, and Geopolitical tensions force the FED to stay the course. If they pivot now, not only will no real problem be solved, but it will inherently make them worse. Back on the Credit Delima, we have also seen the sharpest credit impulse contraction in 10 years. Liquidity runs all markets, when liquidity is dried, it causes mayhem. Okay so what about USOIL and why is it on the chart? Well as you can see, each time USOIL has significantly deviated from its current trend, it has led to a recession. 6 Times in the last 20+ years has this perfectly signaled economic hardship. This time is no different. Even further still, 2 out of the last 3 times, it was not until after USOIL has peaked is when the most pain was to be had. Combine this with 50 Year High Inflation, War, FED hiking into a slowing economy, QT, Supply Chain shocks, Sanctions/Embargoes, Energy soaring, and Gas at $4-5 in every state in America for the first time in history. Ask yourself this, if this recipe isn't enough for concern, what exactly is? Continuing on, let's focus on a few other charts: First, let's just take a look at where SPX & NDQ currently stand: As you can see, both have only just now reached Mid-Channel and still have quite a ways until the bottom of the channel. Second, let's remind ourselves of the US10Y-US02Y Curve inversion that took place a few months back. This inversion has predicted the last 6+ Recessions, just as the exponential rise in Energy has. Here is my first post explaining this correlation with SPX: Here is an Updated View: As you can see, it may even be headed for a second Inversion which would likely be another huge red flag. Third, Lets look at the Tech Leader $AAPL and see where it stands. $AAPL represents the leader of the tech market and where AAPL goes, the market goes. Here is my most recent post: Fourth lets look at the DXY and consider where it stands. It currently is in the midst of a 30+ year breakout, further proving the economic hardship most are facing. Furthermore, in times of great fear and inflation, money is usually the last thing people want but yet here we see the opposite playing out. Complete deviation of a regular historical trend: And Fifth, let's just speculate on the worst possible outcome here, which I did a little while back when I Noticed Elon Musk somehow timed the exact top in the Market (See for yourself below): I thought his perfect timing was really strange and led to the credibility of his words. Although the chart seems extreme now, from a technical standpoint it absolutely is possible as I've laid out. Although it's important to consider the worst, it is critical you don't expect the worst. Many things can change between now and the end of the year which is why it is important to stay updated and pivot when needed. I can honestly go on about specific factors such as the housing market and the VC's/Hedge Funds controlling supply while cutting out the regular buyer. Not to mention companies like Zillow doing the same exact thing, basically acting like a Broker to the overall housing market. Cutting out an entire class of buyers because theoretically, they don't ever have to sell to regular families just trying to buy a home. Global food shocks from inflation make fertilizer unaffordable to harvest the right yield of crop. As well as the Ukraine War making it even more difficult. China causing supply chaos because they have locked down their country again, 2 years into the pandemic. This thesis is only valid in the scenario it takes far longer to tackle these challenges listed above. If the FED and the overall World Economy can begin to tame these challenges better than what we have seen thus far, things will begin to become more positive. No matter what, these challenges must be solved not only for the health of the economy but for the betterment of the people. If you've made it this far, I thank you immensely and you will be rewarded for putting in the effort now to understand the big picture. Leave any opinions below;
SP:SPX
by NoOneWhoIsSomeone
123
#SPX daily update 7-6-22Jobs Numbers and FOMC Minuets ended up being relatively stale over all, making SPX to be a consolidation day until we saw a late breakout attempt over our 3838 level. We did close over this level. For tomorrow I would look for 3838 to hold early in the morning for a possible push to our 3900 Target. We have a smaller level formed around 3870 now as well. Calls will be easiest now over 3770. Id wait for 3800 for puts back towards 3741. Once SPX can close over 3927 we can see another possible momentum move up to 4000. We are still in a bear trending Market so you have to trade this still as a “Bear” Market Rally. Bears will be eyeing the 3900 and 3927 levels to get in on the next leg down. Even at 4000 that’s only a 10% typical Bear Market Pullback so this is not out of the question just yet. Continue to lock in profits along the way to protect your capital and when available you can allocate a % of your profits to continue the trade. There are plenty of opportunities ahead.
SP:SPX
by MoneyFlow_Options_Community
Time to Buy Stocks? TQQQ Analysis -73% There is something to be said about speculation. Here we have the QQQ 3X fund, testing a key area. Not only are we testing a key area, but "large-risk" (largER anyway) is currently sitting -68% from the all time high.... Even more weird, when the whole world economy was shut down in 2020, TQQQ contracted -73.28%; oddly enough, at least in this view... we bounced at... -73.28%. (these measurements could be off by a few percentage points I just measured it once and they happened to be the same measurement. Anyway, this looks like a good risk reward entry. I have bought and will continue to provide updates. For now, I have bought with the expectation that price will test the all time high from here. God bless.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by ChiefMacro
8
Indexes and Cryptos under the pump so where to for markets now?The Morning Jumpstart Weekly Review 20/06/22...key levels to watch on major markets for the coming week!! Cryptocurrencies remain under pressure and I expect that things will get worse before they potentially get better as we see cracks appearing in the underlying fundamentals of the asset class. Solana is taking an unprecedented step of freezing a large account that goes against the idea of a decentralised exchanges...and will potentially trigger shockwaves in the crypto space. Major share market Indexes are heading lower as traders unwind risk assets in the face of raising interest rates and continued high inflation. The general trend for major Indexes remains down with the the USD in the driving seat....continuing to be careful into shares as prices could continue the trend lower. Markets covered US - DOW, Nasdaq and SP500 Europe - DAX and FTSE100 Asia - Hang Seng, ASX200 and Nikkei FX - Dollar Index (USD), EURUSD , GBPUSD , AUDUSD and USDJPY Commodities - GOLD , Oil and Copper Crypto - Bitcoin and Ethereum
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by TradeTheStructure
2022 - Not the Recession We Want, but the Recession We NeedIn response to the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates yet again, the markets - both in stocks and crypto (and housing soon to come) - have been dropping pretty hard lately. For crypto investors out there: this is the sound of mainstream money from the general public leaving the space - they came for the party, then left after the party was over. The craze that we saw in 20’-21’ was really the result of NFT projects targeting people - largely cooped up indoors due to the pandemic - with a hype-based marketing strategy that seemingly resonated very strongly. Out of all the NFT projects that could have reached #1, it was the Bored Apes Yacht Club: it doesn’t take an art expert (although I do like to fancy myself as one at times) to see what BAYC’s success “means” - it’s obviously targeted at people who’s primary ethos is boredom…and exclusivity. In a way, BAYC is the perfect sign of the times - people bored of the lockdown, the rise of digital marketing and remote work, our reliance on artificial scarcity to determine “value”, and Web2 marketing/hype and investing practices all rolled into one. There’s a reason why even the Ethereum team (most visible Vitalik) renounced BAYC as something that ETH “wasn’t intended” to do. Adjective-Animal JPGs basically missed the point of why Web3 was created from the very beginning. Now that the Feds are tightening up their money supply (finally, after having printed endless amounts of it during the last few years) the “casino” market is about to come to an end. But just because the market is in a downturn doesn’t automatically mean that everything will be bad…there are lots of opportunities still there; they just look different from what we’re used to seeing up until now. For some of us out there, we’ve been waiting for this moment for a very long time. If you might have been thinking about changing or trying new things out in your life, now is probably the best time to do it because in a few months the world as we know it will probably get flipped on its head and most things will become unrecognizable anyway. During recessions people’s priorities tend to shift away from speculative assets and into savings; short-term investments into long-term; people shopping for interest rates on savings rather than loan accounts; and so on. Those who adapt will do well - but it will require a shift in mindset that may feel strange and unfamiliar. People say that “everyone” suffers during a recession but I tend to disagree - in any given market there are always winners and losers; money is game of how the idea of “value” compares itself to the price of goods around us. It is always relative to each other, in other words - and there are always ways to get ahead if you’re willing to look at the details close enough. - The Market Itself is a Bubble One thing to keep in mind that 80%+ of people don't own any stocks/crypto, so all the panic, hype, and emotional reactions you see in the media/social media is already a bubble of its own. Most people only see the prices of the things that they interact with every day - thing most people are seeing right now is that they see that inflation is cutting into their ability to survive day to day - and that something needs to be done. Until crypto products address these sorts of “bigger issues” of the public directly, it will always follow the general markets rather than setting the tone. The reality is that most people in living in United States were already used to massive inflation - the costs of living was already on the rise since 12’ onward (especially in housing, education, and healthcare - typically the 3 biggest expenses for the average person out there) and people were already getting squeezed out every year anyway. In the upcoming months there will be a lot of people with lots of money complaining about how “hard” things are for them, but I don’t expect there will be any sympathy for them - in fact, they will probably be the target for the next ridicule cycle if anything, really. What that means is that the economy was already hell for most people during the "good times" - inflation was already well out of control but we simply failed to acknowledge it. On a personal level, I lost more friends (especially artists) than I care to talk about: many were forced to move away from the places they loved because the costs of simply existing in certain areas became untenable. A lot of people I knew gave up on having kids, gave up on their dreams, went back living with their parents - worse case, some of them literally ended up on the streets simply because they were unable to pay their rent. People who have known me long enough know that prior to getting into crypto I was heavily involved with housing politics through the YIMBY movement - though this downturn is hurting my portfolio too, it's hard for me to think that a market crash would be a bad thing long-term, because not only would it would lessen the pearl-clutching incentives/behaviors of NIMBYs, it should also bring down costs of everything as a whole. And that is good for everybody, not just the few who happen to be lucky enough to get their hands on a certain type of ERCs. So while it may be unpleasant to see the numbers in your accounts go down, this is the correction that many have been waiting for - the correction that we need. Once the housing market stops going up, there’s less reason (and ability) for NIMBYs to defend their imaginary gains against the tides of supply and demand - and in the long run, the market should equalize itself to where it should be. What Web3 needs more of is people with a mindset of abundance rather than of scarcity - and this will become more important as the crypto ecosystem starts to mature. Web3 is not only a movement of its own, but it’s also a repudiation of the bad habits of the Wall Street/Web2 model - which has, over time, become a ponzi scheme of its own. Low interest loans allowed startups, politicians, and scammers to “fundraise” their way out of trouble: No money to pay for things we need? No problem - just print more! Company not profitable? No problem - just raise your Series Z to keep it going just a little bit longer! Ponzi schemes do actually “work” on some level, after all - as long as the market keeps on going up.As we’ve seen with what happened with LUNA/3AC - which was entirely backed on the fantasy of Bitcoin going up forever and forever - there’s going to be a backlash against the stock market too, so that’s something to keep an eye out for. How did Bernie Madoff get away with what he did for over 20 years? The market was always going up. Now that the tide is pulling, we’ll get to see who was swimming naked underneath this whole time. - It’s Time for the King (Bitcoin) to Serve its People Bitcoin is obviously the first of its kind and currently the market leader in the crypto space as we speak - but for how long? While Ethereum is moving towards proof-of-stake as its primary economic engine (taking most of its tokens along with it), Bitcoin leaned hard into the proof-of-work + scarcity model in the last few years and never looked back. Given that the store-of-value idea is not unique to any coin - and that the only “value” Bitcoin currently provides is potential speculative gains (which are on its way out as staking rewards start to look more appealing during a recession) and a strange retro-nostalgia aesthetic for the pre-08’ eras (which will gradually fade over time), it’s hard to see it surviving for the long term. More broadly speaking, “it was there first” is exactly the type of NIMBY argument that the market will “correct” in the upcoming recession, taking down a multitude of asset classes that have been relying on that mentality up until this point. Ethereum is attempting to escape that fate through their “merge” (we’ll see if they’re successful in doing that this summer), but Bitcoin has basically signed the pact to go down with the ship. In a few months, it could potentially be the only proof-of-work system left on the charts, quite literally. I’ve always found it odd that a lot of Bitcoin fans aren’t too shy about calling their coin of choice “King” - which is actually a fairly new phenomenon that came during the 16’-18’ run, not before. (The dev community was much purer back then.) This phrase clashes directly with their supposed support for decentralization and democratization of money - the cognitive dissonance there is massive, to say the least. (Since there is no on-chain governance in BTC systems a small group of miners usually end up controlling everything on the protocol level behind closed doors, btw.) There’s something very disturbing about the glint you see in their eyes when they claim that Bitcoin holders (not anyone else, obviously) will become the most “powerful” people in the world in a few years - I don’t think anyone outside of that bubble really believes that - especially now. This is the year 2022 and we don’t really have the time to idolize or fantasize the absolute powers of monarchy, even in imaginary forms. Web3 will rely on the transparency of ledgers to establish partnerships of mutual benefit, enforced by precision and reliability of smart contracts - but this requires us to get better at collaboration, rather than moving unilaterally and monopolistically, as Web2 has typically done. As is the case with modern monarchies - the royalty can either choose to step down or be taken down forcibly - one or the other will happen, either way. BTC has largely been left out of the development talks of Web3 systems as a whole, since they refused to fork out their systems to make compatibility improvements - it will eventually get left behind as the world continues to move without them. Luckily this will happen through the simple process of numbers going up and down - rather than having to deal with the fallout of it in the real-world itself. - What’s Coming Next for Web3? The typical pattern that the economy goes through during periods of recession is that they switch from a speculative to a savings mindset - when both the banks and the government spends all their money and have literally nothing left, what do they do? Raise interest rates to incentivize people to put money back in. As far as anyone can tell, the fundamentals of this relationship hasn’t changed and is not likely to have done so during this cycle either. In crypto this means that there will be less demand for NFT lotteries and higher demand for coins that offer staking rewards as a benefit - undoubtedly there will be more and more people searching for the best rates out there as the Fed starts to raise its rates even further in order to keep inflation under control. Interest rates has been at 0% for so long that most people probably forgot that it was a thing - staking was a hard sell even during last year’s run since news of its developments were largely out-blasted by the NFT mania as a whole. But as we start transitioning into a different phase of the economy, people’s priorities are likely to shift. Some coins that are well positioned to take advantage of this shift are Tezos, Algorand, Cardano, NANO, and many of the other coins that have been proof-of-stake from the very beginning. Ethereum and Dogecoin both have plans on switching over to proof-of-stake in the future (ETH supposedly in August, Dogecoin’s date is unknown), but the elephant in the room that nobody is talking about right now is the fact that Bitcoin doesn’t have the means (nor the plans to) transition into anything that is likely to be relevant in the near future. Time will tell, but we’ll see what happens over the course of the next few months, next few years, since what happens is likely to be a crucial turning point for the industry as a whole. Now that mainstream money has left the space, both whales and HODLers are waiting for the right time to reorganize their portfolios and get back in. With fiat money out of the picture, we’re likely to see more independent movement between coins and clear winners and losers emerge within the ecosystem rather than always moving in parallel as it has up until now. What comes out in the aftermath of all of this will be a very different crypto landscape - possibly with the “flippening” happening during the midst of it as well. As one last reminder, your portfolio going down is not necessarily a bad thing, if the goods that you pay for day-to-day gets, on average, cheaper. So I hope people don’t lose sight of the bigger picture and sees the opportunities and benefits that can come out of this transition as a whole. Money is about to get smarter: something that people have been demanding for a very long time. Well, if that’s what you’re looking for it’s coming right for us - hope people can recognize it when it’s here.
GEMINI:XTZUSDLong
by RyanTanaka