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DOW -WaveTalks - Cracks 1900 points / Nifty - Ab tera kya hoga ?WaveTalks - DOW -Cracks 1900 points in 2 days / Nifty - Ab tera kya hoga ? Welcome you all in the exciting update on WaveTalks !!! As per the idea published on 12th Jan 2020 - Nifty : Stellium Effect (Stellium - Astro term) Have Suggested Dow close to a primary top on 17th Jan 2020 & India Nifty made a top next week on 20th Jan 2020 - Looking for a fall close from 29500 which is psychological level update in later videos - just broke the channel convinced all bulls nothing is wrong & revisited - made new high above 29500 - Here's a catch ! Penultimate waves always have painful end. Time & again it has proved correctly - This time wasn't any surprise ! As usual Bulls convince themselves nothing is wrong & bears get excited but unfortunately market never listens anyone be it a bull or a bear - it just does what it likes the best!!! - Don't trade with emotions else you are calling for trouble. Most Important clue suggested for proposed India Nifty Fall from channel top at 12350-12450 are mentioned below DJIA - Dow Jones Industrial Average Dollar Rupee - Expected move above 70.50 for 72.25 & above 72.50 for 74.50+ Nifty - Ab tera kya hoga ??? ( I still suggest don't be a bull neither a bear -never get excited in trades - control your emotions & trade what market tells you ) 13th Jan 2020 - Dow Jones 25th Feb 2020 - Dow at 27081 10th Jan 2020 - Dollar Rupee Expected to fall on smooth talks post Geo-political tension between U.S. & Iran - meanwhile -both Global Markets & Indian markets rallied for new highs. India Nifty rallied from 11930 to 12375-12430- where caution was already suggested as channel top. Nifty - Ab Tera Kya Hoga ??? Check the TradingView profile page for previous ideas at in.tradingview.com Thanks for reading the update, your precious time & be careful in trading - don't listen anyone -neither bulls nor bears only practice hearing what price talks.
DJ:DJIShort
by WaveTalks
26
About inevitability of the bear market correctionThe bull market, which began to form in the US stock market since 2009, officially became the longest in history (lasting 126 months). Yes, on the way to this great growth, there were problems such as the 2011 flash crash of braking in 2015-2016 and a large decrease in 2018. But all these difficulties were successfully overcome and prices stubbornly continued to climb up. Investors and traders are accustomed to such a state and rising prices in the market have become familiar to them, one might say, a natural state. But nothing lasts forever. Each time, history proves that growth always replaces decline. And the belief that “this time everything will be different” is refuted each time by reality. One of the reasons for the rampant growth of the US stock market was the country's economic growth. The result of growth, in particular, was a decrease in unemployment to 1969. It would seem that this is an occasion for optimism and continued purchases in the stock market. But the situation is actually quite ambiguous. The departure of the unemployment rate below naturally suggests that the economy has practically lost reserves for further growth and, all the more, its acceleration (companies simply have nowhere to take labor to expand their activities). But even more interesting is the fact that low unemployment has historically meant low returns on the US stock market. For example, Mark Hulbert showed that on average over the past 100 years, the minimum yield on the US stock market was recorded during periods when the unemployment rate fell below 4.4%. At the same time, maximum profitability was during periods when unemployment exceeded 7%. Why did this happen? One of the explanations for low unemployment leads to increased price competition among employers for labor, which leads to higher wages, which in turn spins the inflationary spiral, which forces the Fed to act and raise rates. An increase in the rate is a signal and a reason for the overheated stock market to decline. High unemployment, on the contrary, stimulates the Fed to lower rates and causes the stock market to grow. Thus, purely statistically current conditions are ideal for inhibiting US stock market growth. At the same time, given that in recent years it has shown strong growth, reaching average values for the current unemployment rate will be possible only with an even stronger decline in stock prices. Recall that we consider 2019 the last year of unjustified growth in the US stock market. Already in 2020, it will begin to adjust. The scale of correction is from 50% and higher. Given that in recent years, shares of technology companies in the US stock market have grown by an average of 7-8 times (and some issuers have shown growth of 10 or even 20 times), the US stock market will no doubt become the object of massive sales. We recommend participating in this process, selling both the market as a whole (Nasdaq index) and the shares of individual issuers (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle, etc.).
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
What does science say about a future recession?This week we witnessed another inversion of the yield curve in the United States. This time, the yield on 10-year treasury bonds fell below the yield on 3-month bonds. The situation is not entirely normal from the point of view of common economic sense: long-term bonds should generate greater returns than short-term ones in order to take into account the risk premium and uncertainty, as well as the value of money over time. Recall that the inversion of the revenue curve usually occurs on the eve of the recession. We also note that the inversion of the yield curve we observed back in 2019. That is, warning signals are more than enough. An important nuance is the presence of a time lag between the appearance of the signal (inversion of the yield curve) and its development (the beginning of a recession in the economy). This time, the inversion of the yield curve is associated with fears due to the coronavirus epidemic. But today we’ll talk not only about the predictive abilities of the inversion of the yield curve but also about the study of MIT scientists and economists who, based on the original econometric model, see the risk of a recession in the USA in the foreseeable future. The model is based on four variables: industrial production, NFP, stock market price dynamics, and the yield curve. Analyzing the data for the last 100 years, scientists came to the conclusion that the index calculated on the basis of these indicators is a good indicator of the onset of a recession. Each time the index value exceeded 70%, the likelihood of a recession over the next 6 months increased to 70%. So back in November 2019, the index value exceeded 76%. That is, in the near future, the US economy has significant chances to face serious difficulties. Even the probability of this event is calculated - more than 70%. It is not necessary to speak purely formally about the recession in the United States here and now if only because in order to state the fact of its occurrence, it is necessary to reduce GDP for two consecutive quarters. But once again we note that a critical mass of problems has already been accumulated and the coronavirus epidemic is an ideal trigger for their materialization. In total, there are more and more signals in favor of the worsening situation in the global economy in general and the USA in particular. This will inevitably lead to massive sales in the stock markets. Recall that we consider 2019 the last year of unjustified growth in the US stock market. Already in 2020, it will begin to adjust. The scale of correction is from 50% and higher. Given that in recent years, shares of technology companies in the US stock market have grown by an average of 7-8 times (and some issuers have shown growth of 10 or even 20 times), the US stock market will no doubt become the object of massive sales. We recommend participating in this process, selling both the market as a whole (Nasdaq index) and the shares of individual issuers (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle, etc.).
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
The yen could not stand it, investors relaxed againYesterday was the day of reckoning for the Japanese yen. We already wrote this week about the failure in the country's economy, but we perceived the lack of reaction of the foreign exchange market as the general inability of the yen to fall due to increased demand for safe-haven assets (see the dynamics of gold prices). As yesterday showed, we were wrong. The markets harbored a strong grudge against the yen, but they lacked reason. After another wave of optimism arose in connection with the improvement of the epidemiological situation and measures to stimulate the economy from China, the yen strongly recalled everything. How deservedly the Japanese currency has suffered is a moot point, but the fact remains that the yen lost a lot yesterday. Although, again, in terms of facts, then 2,000 deaths (+136 new) and 75,000 (+1872 new) cases of infection are no reason for optimism to grow. But the yen was sold, and US stock indexes updated another historic high. What is happening in the financial markets continues to be puzzling, because, looking at the dynamics of gold, there is a feeling that investors are worried about the coronavirus and its consequences, but an analysis of the yen and US stock index charts suggests that the epidemic is a definite plus for the world economies and a reason for purchases even in excess of overbought assets. Meanwhile, inflation in the UK, USA, and Canada was above forecasts. This, by and large, was to be expected: it is impossible to inflate markets with money without consequences for years - sooner or later the time of reckoning will come. It is likely that we have the first signals. Just in case, we note that central banks will be required to respond to rising inflation. They will do this by curtailing the operations of quantitative easing and other cash injections, for example, in the repo market, as well as by raising rates. Rising rates will provoke a chain reaction in the economy and lead to the collapse of bubbles. If 3 years ago, the Fed clearly hoped to gradually blow out a bubble in the US stock market, now it has clearly given up on this hand. That is, the explosion will be very loud. However, so far the markets do not care about this, but now they do not care. I do not care that Apple will fail the first quarter in financial results, that Adida’s economic activity in China has fallen by 85%, that the head of the IMF calls coronavirus the main threat to the global economy, as well as hundreds and thousands of other facts. Going against such a train is generally ungrateful. But to buy Nasdaq above 9700 with such a fundamental background, the hand categorically does not rise. Perhaps the only option to save the rest of common sense in trading and not to merge the deposit is intraday trading with hard stops. So today we will sell oil, USDJPY and EURUSD pairs, buy GBPUSD with small stops, and also look for opportunities for buying gold.
Short
by Trade24Fx
1
The Final Phase Of The Bull Market Begins (Fractal Update)My previous posts on this subject were much longer, but I'll keep this short and sweet. You can check out my other posts (linked below) for more in-depth analysis and my overall perspective. I actually DID NOT want to see the stock market continue up here. It's just further confirmation that we're still following this fractal from 1929. I drew the yellow speculative line a while ago, showing that if we continue up from here, we can indeed reach as high as 40-50,000, even by Fall 2020, when we could also hit the long term channel resistance (red). It's interesting that this may easily coincide with the U.S. Presidential election. This, I believe, is a seller's rally. I expect the DJI to eventually AT LEAST test the long term trendline (purple) and the 200 Month Moving Average (light blue). A catastrophic financial collapse could result in the loss of the long term trendline and a decline just as severe as the Great Depression. The technical setup is there for this to happen, but the question is: What are the underlying similarities and the warning signs that have led to such similar market behavior? Feel free to discuss. Here's a closer view and comparison. You can see certain features marked for structural comparison: Anyway, this is not financial advice. As always, my posts are speculative and based purely upon my own opinions and observations. -Victor Cobra
TVC:DJIShort
by VictorCobra
4
Bond Market Records - An Alarm For Stock BuyersAccording to the Bank of America Global Research, a historic event took place last week - a weekly inflow of funds to the bond market amounted to $23.6 billion. There has never been more money to the bond market in a week. If the situation develops in a similar vein, then by the end of the year the bond market may add another $1 trillion to the existing $10 trillion. What is this news talking about? That investors are starting a global repositioning of assets - from volatile and high-risk stocks to more stable bond markets. They can be understood - the global economy is in real danger, and at the time of crises, stock markets are the most affected, but it is bond markets that show the maximum yield. We give data on the latest major crises. - crisis of 1980-82 (global economic crisis): return on the stock market amounted to (-16.52%), on the bond market + 21.61%; - the crisis of 2001-2002 (dot-com bubble): the yield on the stock market was (-38.87%), on the bond market + 15.82%; - the crisis of 2007-2209 (global financial crisis): the yield on the stock market was (-50.95%), on the bond market + 6.08%. These figures are not confidential and professional investors are well aware of the specifics of the behavior of stock and bond markets in times of crisis. That is, a sharp influx of funds into the bond market suggests that rats are increasingly starting to flee the ship. By ship, of course, we mean the stock market. Despite the fact that the Central Banks continue to pump money (since September 2019, the Central Banks poured about $ 800 billion into financial markets), as well as the era of ultra-low interest rates, capital flows are increasingly reaching the stock market. "The last fool" will buy the latest shares, while power in the stock market will pass to sellers. The insider information from Bank of America also speaks in favor of this: their private clients continue to "quietly" sell out shares and buy bonds. In 2019, there was an outflow of funds from Bank of America customers from the stock market (worth about $ 200 billion), and according to forecasts for 2020, the trend will intensify. At the same time, investments in bonds continue to show a steady increase since 2015. Recall that we consider 2019 the last year of unjustified growth in the US stock market. Already in 2020, it will begin to adjust. The scale of correction is from 50% and higher. Given that in recent years, shares of technology companies in the US stock market have grown by an average of 7-8 times (and some issuers have shown growth of 10 or even 20 times), the US stock market will no doubt become the object of massive sales. We recommend participating in this process, selling both the market as a whole (Nasdaq index) and the shares of individual issuers (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle, etc.).
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
BP Plc (BP.) Close To Key Support Level BP is steadily going down. the market is coiling within a falling parallel channel and it looks like 440 level will be reached soon. analyzing the structure on the left we can see how important this level is for the market participants. for this reason, we can expect with you a bullish reaction from this level. our initial target will be the resistance of the rising channel and our second target will be extended to 486 level. good luck! please, support the idea with like! thank you!
LSE:BP.Long
by VasilyTrader
1
Week Results: China, the euro and oil problemsThe past week has already habitually passed in the analysis of news around the coronavirus. The main result was the restoration of economic activity in China, which greatly reassured investors, and they returned to the usual occupation in recent years - the purchase of risky assets. As a result, US stocks updated historic highs. At the same time, one cannot but note the opposite trends - gold was in stable demand, but oil was under pressure. This already indicates that investors are seriously worried about the consequences of the epidemic, which are primarily manifested in a sharp decrease in demand for energy assets (the International Energy Agency even predicted the first quarterly decline in oil market demand in 10 years). Investor fears are much easier to understand than optimism in stock markets. Fears are something rational: it is not clear what real economic damage China and the world as a whole will be caused by the epidemic. Do not forget that the root of the problem may lie not even in the fact of a slowdown in economic activity, but in the ability of China to service its debts, which have already reached 300% of GDP. And the epidemic is still only growing: the number of deaths has approached 1700, and the number of infected has exceeded 50,000 (according to WHO). But optimism is something from the field of irrational and emotional. Since we believe that, in the long run, proponents of a reasonable assessment of the markets will be right, we, therefore, continue to recommend sales on stock markets as well as purchases of safe-haven assets. Speaking of sales in the US stock market. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced that they will reduce the volume of interventions in the repo market. That is, cash injections will decrease. Which is very likely to provoke a decrease in demand in the stock market. In addition, this week we will look for opportunities for sales in the oil market. At least, if there is no news that Russia has decided to support Saudi Arabia and agrees to increase the volume of reduction in oil production. Well, or the epidemic will rapidly decline. In addition, this week we will continue to look for points of sale for the euro. The single European currency after a series of weak economic data, including a failure in industrial production, and close to zero GDP growth Euro zone looks extremely vulnerable. As for macroeconomic statistics this week, on the whole we are waiting for a relatively calm period. So, the markets will continue to follow the news from China and work out them first of all.
Short
by Trade24Fx
What does the Baltic Dry Index drop say about?The fact that 2020 could be the year of the beginning of the global recession or even the crisis has been talked about and written about. But after the United States and China entered into the first phase of the agreement, the conversation calmed down a bit and investors calmed down. The coronavirus epidemic has revived old fears. We offer to look at the current situation in the world economy and its prospects through the prism of an original and very interesting indicator characterizing the state of economic activity - Baltic Dry Index. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a trade index that reflects the cost of transporting dry goods (coal, ore, grain, etc.) by sea along twenty major trade routes. That is, unlike most classical macroeconomic indicators such as GDP or industrial production, which state what has already happened and, as a consequence, are very late in their signal function, this Index allows real-time monitoring of economic processes (more specifically, demand for raw materials). An important feature of BDI is the absence of a speculative component in it, that is, it is not subject to fluctuations in investor sentiment or emotional capital inflows/outflows. Trade is limited only to member companies, and only those participants who have real cargo or have shipped to transport these goods provide contracts. That is, BDI gives an undistorted view of reality, which is very rare in the modern world. So, over the past six months, the Baltic Dry Index has dropped from 2500 to 400. That is, it has lost about 80% of its value. This means one thing: the demand for transportation of raw materials is falling, which indicates a decrease in production as a whole. The index demonstrated its predictive abilities in 2008 (BDI collapsed then by more than 90%, giving a signal about the approaching global financial crisis). How to make money on this information (meaning the fall of the Baltic Dry Index over the past six months, more than 5 times, that is, 80%)? The most obvious option, promising maximum profits, are sales in stock markets that are overheated to the impossible. Recall that we consider 2019 the last year of unjustified growth in the US stock market. Already in 2020, it will begin to adjust. The scale of correction is from 50% and higher. Given that in recent years, shares of technology companies in the US stock market have grown by an average of 7-8 times (and some issuers have shown growth of 10 or even 20 times), the US stock market will no doubt become the object of massive sales. We recommend participating in this process, selling both the market as a whole (Nasdaq index) and the shares of individual issuers (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle, etc.).
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
“Minsky moment”: the bubble is about to burstWe continue to collect all sorts of signals about the onset of an imminent apocalypse on world stock markets, and especially the US stock market. We already wrote about the inversion of the yield curve, the favorite Buffett indicator, Schiller indicator, Hindenburg index, and Titanic syndrome, as well as other specific and not very metrics. Today we’ll talk about another interesting concept - the Minsky moment. This concept was proposed by Hyman Minsky in the 1920s when developing the theory of economic cycles. In his opinion, periods of continued growth in stock markets end in acute crises. This is due to the fact that investors, accustomed to a constant increase in prices, lose caution and start buying stocks with borrowed money, which provokes an extremely rapid growth of the stock bubble. And if one part of borrowers is able to refinance their debt, then the other part repays debts only due to rising prices in the stock market. Accordingly, as soon as rampant growth in the stock market ends, such borrowers have to get rid of shares in order to pay off their debt obligations. Since there are a lot of borrowers of this type in the midst of price bubbles, such actions lead to a stock market crash. Actually, this moment of time is called the “Minsky moment”. What do we have today? How much have investors played and buy with debt funds? One of the options for determining the level of lending to investment activity is the analysis of “free cash”. In periods of high speculative activity, investors prefer to borrow money, respectively, they have a negative cash balance. So, starting in 2013, the cash balance of investors in the US stock market is negative. At the same time, the size of the negative balance fluctuates around historical highs and exceeds the values that were 3-5 times during the dot-com bubble and the global financial crisis. Such a high level of debt has never been in history. Accordingly, when the “Minsky moment" comes, the fall will be very loud. The reasons for what is happening on the surface: Central banks have made access to credit resources so cheap that this has led to a massive influx of borrowed speculative funds into the stock markets and the formation of price bubbles on them. Recall that since 2007 the balance of the Central Banks has increased from $ 5 trillion to $21 trillion at the current time. Guess how much capitalization of the global stock market has grown over this period of time? In 2007, it was about $65 trillion, and in 2019 amounted to $85 trillion. In fact, the growth is entirely due to the expansion of the Central Banks. The IMF recently issued a global warning of prohibitively high levels of debt and a slowdown in global economic growth. That is, by and large, stated the ideal conditions for the emergence of the "Minsky moment". The only thing that keeps markets from falling into the abyss now is an unbridled belief in further growth, even though there is no reason for this. But faith is a very unreliable foundation. Any doubt in the bright future will bring down the dam of faith and panic waves will flood the markets. Recall that we consider 2019 the last year of unjustified growth in the US stock market. Already in 2020, it will begin to adjust. The scale of correction is from 50% and higher. Given that in recent years, shares of technology companies in the US stock market grew by an average of 7-8 times (and some issuers showed growth of 10 or even 20 times), the US stock market will no doubt become the object of massive sales. We recommend participating in this process, selling both the market as a whole (Nasdaq index) and the shares of individual issuers (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle, etc.).
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
Who buys the US stock market?Now it’s hard to find a respected analyst or economist who, honestly, will recommend buying stocks and predicting a rise in stock prices. The scale of its overbought by almost all key metrics is overwhelming, and this is against the backdrop of the coronavirus epidemic, which literally destroys the global economic system from the inside out (breaking supply chains, closing production facilities in China, closing sales outlets and warehouses in China, and a sharp decrease in demand from China for almost everything, etc.). But prices in the world's leading stock markets continue to rise. Means, someone buys quite actively. A logical question arises: who is this? Super-professionals like Buffett either went to the cache or generally frankly short. The most obvious option, at least from the standpoint of the strength of their influence on the market, is institutional investors. One of the largest representatives of this group of participants in the US stock market is pension funds. Their assets are measured in trillions of dollars, so they can definitely move the market up. But the fact is that pension funds are managed by responsible professionals who understand the scale of the inflated bubble and therefore have been reducing the share of investments in the US stock market for several years now. Sovereign funds with assets under $ 10 trillion could be a great candidate. But they just prefer private investment (private equity), rather than the purchase of publicly traded shares. Recently, quantum funds and high-frequency trading funds have been gaining more weight in the US stock market (according to various estimates, their assets are 1.2-2 trillion). But these funds are extremely unreliable allies in the market. The specificity of their algorithm is such that from the camp of bulls they can very quickly overrun to bears. Hedge funds with their 770 billion assets under management are another potential candidate. But recall that hedge funds can both buy shares and sell. That is, they can turn over from purchases to sales at any time. Which again makes them unreliable allies. An important driver of US stock market growth in recent years has been the Americans themselves (households). But this led to the fact that the structure of their assets began to resemble very much the one that was on the eve of the collapse of the dot-com bubble and the global financial crisis. Currently, the share of investments in stocks by households is about 34%. There was more only on the eve of the global financial crisis (36%) and just before the collapse of the dot-com bubble (37%). So their potential for further increase in demand is doubtful - there are too many shares in the portfolios of Americans. Who else is left? Well, for example, the companies themselves. The volume of buybacks of own shares by American corporations over the past few years has exceeded $2 trillion. And here on the horizon of the US stock market, there is a very serious threat. The fact is that the volume of share buybacks in 2020 is planned to be at least 2 times less than in 2019. That is, the main buyer in the US stock market is losing half of its demand. In total, the main drivers of US stock market growth over the past 10 years have completely or almost completely exhausted themselves. Buyers are no longer left and any serious sales volumes will bring down this colossus on clay feet. Recall that we consider 2019 the last year of unjustified growth in the US stock market. Already in 2020, it will begin to adjust. The scale of correction is from 50% and higher. Given that in recent years, shares of technology companies in the US stock market grew by an average of 7-8 times (and some issuers showed growth of 10 or even 20 times), the US stock market will no doubt become the object of massive sales. We recommend participating in this process, selling both the market as a whole (Nasdaq index) and the shares of individual issuers (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle, etc.).
TVC:NDQShort
by Trade24Fx
2
Oil: Daily Continuation or 4 Hour Exhaustion?My opinion on Oil has stayed the same: I am bearish because there is a supply glut and also the world is slowing down. However, there are many reasons for oil to be propped up, due to the fact that US banks were forced to lend to oil/shale companies when oil dropped last time in order to prevent lay offs. Oil being propped for not just oil companies but also for banks who now have a large exposure to energy. Ironically, the oil markets seem to be the only markets currently that are adhering to fundamental analysis and have true price discovery. Of course calculations of future Chinese oil demand is being factored in the price as the CCP have shut down cities and also highways which of course impacts oil demand. The daily charts shows the break and close below he 52 zone and now we have had the retest. Once again, yes you can enter now with a better risk vs reward to the downside BUT the probability will not favour you as much. The real retest signal is when we form a lower low which CONFIRMS the lower high which would mean a break below 49.40. We could very well go to 45.00. On the bullish case, oil downtrend has been extended and it seems we may be making a pattern perhaps a double bottom. What it is telling us is that it may be difficult to make another lower high (with a lower low). A break above 52 would be the key trigger. On the fundamental side, we must factor in yield. Funds are in a position where they need to make yield and both stocks and bonds are at or near all time highs. This is when looking for "value" comes in. Funds may think this energy sell off is over extended, and just to make yield, oil and energy look attractive at these levels compared to everything else in the market. This is the type of crazy macro environment we are in, and can boost energy.
TVC:USOIL
by Uncharted-FX
Time to fear gravity: EV/sales metricWe continue to collect signals in favor of the imminent start of a correction in the US stock market and the collapse of the bubble on it. CAPE (or Schiller's indicator), Buffett's favorite indicator, Hindenburg’s exchange and Titanic’s syndrome, inversion of the yield curve and much more. In addition to the above unorthodox methods, there are also traditional metrics such as P/E, EPS, BVPS, etc.). For example, P / E is now an average of 18.4 in the market. That is, for every dollar of profit investors are willing to pay 18.4 dollars. This is a lot. Last time there were so many on the eve of the collapse of the dot-com bubble. This is also confirmed by the PEG ratio (Price/earnings to growth). Another classic investment metric is the EV / sales (Enterprise value-to-sales) ratio. This metric shows the ratio of the value of the company relative to its annual revenue. The median value of this indicator is one of the most reliable indicators of market overvaluation/undervaluation since the current market capitalization and the company's debt are taken into account in the calculation method. So the current Enterprise value-to-sales values for the SP500 index are 3.6. This is almost double what it was at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Note that when the dot-com bubble collapses, the Nasdaq index lost about 80% of its value. Recently, the markets lacked a reason to start a correction. The coronavirus epidemic is just perfect for the role of a trigger that will trigger the start of a sales wave. Recall that we consider 2019 the last year of unjustified growth in the US stock market. Already in 2020, it will begin to adjust. The scale of correction is from 50% and higher. Considering that in recent years, shares of technology companies in the US stock market have grown on average 7-8 times (and some issuers have shown growth of 10 or even 20 times), the US stock market will no doubt become the object of massive sales. We recommend participating in this process, selling both the market as a whole (Nasdaq index) and the shares of individual issuers (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle, etc.).
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
10
CHINA INJECTS $174 BILLION OF LIQUIDITY ON FEBRUARY 3 - BUY!!!Like we've been posting, the China flu is nothing but a scare tactic by the FAKE NEWS! With the State of the Union address coming within a few days, GOLD is down and the economy is BOOMING! President Trump will not let the US Stock Market Crash so forget about it folks. Short sellers will continue driving this market higher as they are forced to cover. Earnings recently out tell a big story, the US economy is growing like a wild grape vine! Get in now and ride the markets up to 50,000 If Amazon is added to the DOW stocks, you are looking at a stock market blowing past 30,000 Don't be on the side lines of the BOOMING Trump Economy!
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by UnknownUnicorn3159981
WATCH OUT - POTENTIAL BLACK SWAN EVENT - VIRUS ATTACKA 'black swan' event is something out of the blue - that creates systemic risk. The 2019-nCOV (virus) is potentially one such thing. The markets have not been prepared for this - at all. Could it be the pinprick that pops the 'tech bubble' that influences markets globally? The shock waves of this itty bitty virus are totally unexpected. I go into some price action in the last few days, on the DJI and explain some of the dangerous features of nCOV. China has basically been quarantined by the international community. This is certainly not good news. It's an unofficial quarantine. Lots of nations have limited contact or isolated China in various ways. The virus is one of the most spreadable in history of all viruses but with a low lethality. That means millions of people could be infected but only about 2% killed by it. And that means the death toll could be serious over weeks, months or years. There is no treatment at this time and no vaccine. Even if a vaccine is developed, vaccinated the whole world is not a workable option. In addition the wide spread of the virus means that it can mutate - rendering any vaccine developed, as ineffective. The next big question is when will this quarantine on China be lifted. It could take months, or probably years - depending on what the nCOV virus does next. There is chatter in the blogosphere that the FED will come to rescue the markets from the virus.. like pfffft! The FED has a lesson coming to them. Disclaimer : This screencast is not intended to advise on taking a position in the markets or making transactions. If you lose your money in the markets, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30Short
by Captain_Walker
2
How close is the US stock market to repeat 1987?On October 19, 1987, the United States stock market fell the most in its entire history. The Dow Jones Index lost almost 23%. This event went down in history as “Black Monday”. For traders and investors, this event became a kind of guideline when the situation develops according to the scenario “there is nowhere worse”. Formally, that Monday was not much different from any other day, that is, there was no super-event that would trigger that flash crash. The point is the general accumulated fatigue of the market, which has long been ready for it to breakthrough. And it burst through. The US stock market now in its state is somewhat reminiscent of the one that was on the eve of Black Monday. There are 4 key features of the US stock market in 1987: 1. The market has shown the strongest growth in recent years. 2. The market is euphoric. 3. Sharp drops in price dynamics became more frequent on the eve of “Black Monday”. 4. The negative effects of financial innovation. If you look at what is happening today in the US stock market, then with one degree or another degree of confidence, you can check the box at 1, 2 and 4 points. Point number 1. From the beginning of 1987 until August 1987, the Dow Jones Index soared 44%. At the same time, over the previous 5 years, it has grown by 265%. The Dow soared 44% from the beginning of 1987 to its peak on August 25, 1987. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 265% in the five years ending August 1987, suggesting reinvested dividends. In 2019, the Nasdaq Index grew by 42%, while over the past 5 years, the growth exceeded 200% As you can see, the situations are very similar. Point number 2. Worse measurable. But in 1987, after decades of growth, it was believed that the stock market could only grow. To date, there are various metrics (for example, CNN's Fear and Greed Index) that allow you to quantify the level of greed in the stock market. So, by the end of 2019, the level of greed reached historic highs. Point number 4. In 1987, one of the reasons for the flash crash was the automatic execution of stop losses, which provoked a panic wave and significantly increased its effectiveness. The situation today looks many times more vulnerable. According to various estimates, up to 80% of transactions in the stock market are performed automatically (by computers). The total for a full analogy is lacking only strong downward movements. On the eve of Black Monday in 1987, the US stock market lost 10%, depriving investors of confidence in themselves and the market and creating the prerequisites for a full-fledged panic. Given that over the past couple of sessions, stock markets have dipped 3-4%, it seems that the circle is closing. Thus, the basic prerequisites have already been created. It remains to bring investors and traders to their senses and return them to the ground, and then a full correction will become inevitable. Recall that we consider 2019 the last year of unjustified growth in the US stock market. Already in 2020, it will begin to adjust. The scale of correction is from 50% and higher. Given that in recent years, shares of technology companies in the US stock market have grown by an average of 7-8 times (and some issuers have shown growth of 10 or even 20 times), the US stock market will no doubt become the object of massive sales. We recommend participating in this process, selling both the market as a whole (Nasdaq index) and the shares of individual issuers (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle, etc.).
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx