US30 LONG 'DOW JONES' As we witnessed a clear bounce off of the 1HR demand area, we should see a retest of the latest record high. With major components of the Dow already reported Q4 profits, we should whiteness some slow down, towards our previous weekly supply (resistance levels *27,250-*27,350). Although we are currently in a bullish sentiment with trade talks taking a sharp turn positive over last week, a retest of our previous resistance zone is eminent, before our push into the $28,000's. A clear wedge forming on the higher time frames, where we should be looking for short opportunities in the 28,300-28,450 area moving into the new year with the presidential election will become the new topic of economic news.
Happy hunting :)
Stockmarkets
Catastrophe On The WayThis is a weekly chart of the Dow Jones. Notice the ascending wedge. That is a bearish pattern. A big bear is on the way. look at the stochastics down below. Notice we are at a top of the cycle. Once the price bars move outside of the triangle it will break strongly in the direction it breaks the triangle I drew. Whatever direction it goes while breaking the triangle, that’s the direction it will go. If it breaks down it will go heavy to the down side. Look out below!
JP Morgan unwilling to match SoftBank’s perks to WeWork CEO AdamWeWork but WeDon’tGetPaid.
That’s the grim reality J.P. Morgan Chase bankers are facing now that WeWork is close to accepting a deal to sell control of the office-sharing company to SoftBank in a debt and equity package.
J.P. Morgan would have been the so-called “lead left” adviser on WeWork’s IPO and lead financier on an associated $6 billion credit facility, two roles that would have brought in millions in fees. J.P. Morgan is also WeWork’s third-largest external shareholder -- client money rather than bank asset capital -- behind SoftBank and Benchmark.
Instead, the bank will collect a smaller fee for raising money that WeWork won’t use, according to a person familiar with the matter.
In the three weeks since WeWork withdrew its IPO filing, J.P. Morgan has been trying to secure alternative financing to save WeWork, which was set to run out of cash by mid-November CNBC reported last week. The bank has held talks with more than 100 investors to try and pull together a $5 billion debt package — an alternative to SoftBank’s bailout plan.
J.P. Morgan has raised the money but won’t overvalue the company by putting in more equity, according to a person familiar with the matter. The bank also refused to add in a tender offer to its bailout package that would give co-founder and ex-CEO Adam Neumann a path to sell more shares, said the person, who asked not to be named because the plan is confidential. Additionally, SoftBank is paying hundreds of millions to Neumann to leave the board of directors, give up his voting shares and support SoftBank’s takeover, according to Axios — something J.P. Morgan was also unwilling to do, the person said.
CNBC’s David Faber first reported earlier Monday that WeWork is planning on rejecting J.P. Morgan’s financing plan in favor of SoftBank’s, which combines debt and equity. SoftBank is planning on investing between $1 billion and $3 billion in a tender offer, in addition to accelerating a $1.5 billion equity infusion and $5 billion in debt financing, with other syndicates, people familiar with the matter said.
WeWork’s board is likely to meet on Tuesday to finalize details about selling control of the company to SoftBank, said the people, who requested anonymity because the discussions are private.
J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon had worked personally with Neumann on trying to get the company into the public markets. Dimon has made a point of breaking up the Goldman Sachs-Morgan Stanley tech IPO duopoly and has touted his bank’s recent success.
“We’ve made huge progress in Silicon Valley,” Dimon said at a roundtable discussion in Silicon Valley last year.
US30 Buying cycle inside ascending triangleTo be added to my earlier publication wherein I explain to expect a stock rally followed by a larger stock market crash is a stock buying cycle locked up inside an ascending triangle. This particular set of conditions has lead to sudden stock rally and drop of DXY halfway the month of June.
We could expect to see a similar cause and effect from current date until into March next year. Stress signals on the stock market has been rising recently with sudden drops in the early markets of the Asian session. Last down cycle was drawing a cup and handle candle formation and we are now drawing the last bit of the handle. It could mean nothing or it could be just that last extra signal that my earlier predicted stock market rally and crash is in fact going to happen.
Great buy for 20%+ Return for AMTDAMTD is extremely undervalued due to the news of Charles Schwab having 0$ commissions. With TD Ameritrade now offering 0$ commission fees, expect it to recover for a potential 20%+ dip buy opportunity.
Dow Jones: Channel Up turned into a Triangle.Dow Jones is extending the rebound on the Higher Low made yesterday on the 1W Channel Up (RSI = 51.067, MACD = 249.310, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) after the Nonfarm Payrolls missed the forecast today. This fundamentally bullish for the stock index (Fed and rate cut outlook).
Technically the 1W Channel Up failed to make a Higher High last month so the medium term overlay can turn into a Triangle. Thus we revise our target on a Lower High at 27,200.
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S&P 500 1W - Crash CourseWe've all been stuck in the battle of staying out of the market to expect a "crash" which is really just a retracement. The world has yet to see the once in 100 years "Grand Crash" which will completely devastate the global economy, and that only happens when the S&P 500 starts trading below $1,450 with the new target down to $520.
Instead of only looking for shorts or only look for longs, do both! Analyze price action and trade accordingly. If it's breaking key resistance, then buy with set risk. If i'ts breaking key support then sell with set risk. That's what people have been doing for 100 years; follow what works.
Waiting for the crash is just as bad as buying at the top. Trade in the moment, accept losses, and capitalize off of every move in the market.
MENA takeover: IntroductionEurope (and NA and JP) have been ruling the world for 700 years, ever since Fibonacci brought back the number 0 and created finance.
Gunpowder helped too. Europe domination really went exponential once the stock market put people with money in relation with people with ideas, especially in UK.
Before that the arabs ruled the world for a few centuries, so MENA, before that the romans (and greeks a bit) so europe, before that the carthaginians I think? so mena, before that it alternated between Egypt, the Iraq region, Turkey, Iran (persians)...
India and China have always been big but actually so big they just do their thing. They're a planet by themselves I guess.
Mongols conquered the world so there is that too but otherwise the military + economic + standard of living + science domination has been alternating between europe and mena.
And Europe time is running out... (This includes NA). The end of an era is happening...
People trying to sound smart are saying china (and sometimes india too) will take over but I doubt it. They just do their thing, they always have.
I do not think it is highly probably. Ye sure their gdp probably keeps going up but their culture etc won't dominate. They could go into complete isolation (again).
Do they even need the outside world that much tbh xd
ps: poor hong kong. rip.
This is just an intro, there are plenty of reasons that show us what is happening (including inflation and all that scammy nonsense).
1 thing I really like is "biohistory" it's a new subject they have a couple of videos on youtube I recommend watching them.
North Africa has seen the arab revolutions about 10 years ago, so they have started leaving the middle ages (finally).
It takes time but... In the 70s the shah of Iran turned the country from middle ages into a regional superpower (some say he got too ambitious and this is why the US didn't help him and even helped the islamists take over).
So it can go pretty fast.
And it doesn't take that much! That region including non listed countries has a GDP of 3 trillion. Their economy (per capita) could triple, it's not crazy (didn't it already triple the past few decades?) their population triples, and bam in 30 years you got a GDP of 27 Trillion, while NA EU JP stagnate or even decline.
The MENA region on their side also has oil, natgas, fertilizers, and idk what else, that are only going to go up in value.
This can help support 500 years of world domination. Europe dominated the world for less reasons than this.
Anyway, the gap between developped world and the rest (except sub saharan africa, they are rekt) will tighten I can guarentee this.
The US have just declared sending troops to Saudi Arabia to deal with Iran...
With the coming UBER depression, likes of which you have never seen, the US won't be able to keep the region tamed.
Pay attention to this:
"During the two decades before 1975 per capita income in Iran grew faster than in Turkey and kept pace with Korea. By 1975 the level of per capita GDP in Iran was more than double those attended in Korea and Turkey. However, since the late 1970s income per head in Iran has witnessed a rapid decline. . . By 1990, GDP per capita in Iran had declined by half, almost down to the levels prevalent in the early 1960s and falling behind Turkey and Korea."
Double digit growth.
The 15 years before 1975 were called the "white revolution" led by Iran shah, and 1978/1979 (when the decline started) was when the shah had to quit the country and the religious "supreme leaders" took over.
This is very long term (several decades), but when the "developped world" sees their greatest depression in history with nothing left to slow it down (rates at zero or less, inflation high already, debt insane already, QE pushed to the max, etc)... developped world economies are going to be the safest ones and the ones to recover faster.
Let me repeat, when the west depression begins, investing in a middle east country with plenty of issues and potential wars will be MUCh safer than investing in the developped world.
Great time to start looking at this region. Warren Buffet and John Templeton did not have access to double digit growth, but maybe we will.
The ones that have the vision to look at the right place while every one else is focussed on the previous opportunities. OF THE PAST.
Don't be sad because it is over. Smile because it is beginning :)