Potential Pullback on S&P 500?The American S&P 500 returned to the region above 3100. Recently the index testing the upper limit of the daily Bollinger Bands, which is also near to the bullish channel resistance line. That's why we may looking to short this market rather we would like to see a buying opportunity underneath.
The 50-day SMA is currently trading around the 3030 level, which is the top of the support “zone” that extends down to the 3000 handle. We like the idea of buying a bounce that we can take advantage of cheaper pricing. On upside the first target is at 3137, followed by 3200.
Stockmarkets
REVIEW: DJI (Wall Street), DAX and nuclear options. I've looked into the DJI and the DAX because they are connected. I also considered events affecting the Hong Kong index. In the text below, I consider China's 'nuclear option'.
Overall I'd say the probability is greater for the south on these indices (from this point in time). But caution - because there is a residual probability for the north and I can't know how far south the markets may go if the markets are with me.
These are very troubled times.
1. The markets are overbought because of QE4.0, lowering of interest rates and high hopes about a China 'Phase one' trade deal.
2. But there is trouble in the Hong Kong Stock market.
3. POTUS signed the Hong Kong Democracy Act which could cause the Chinese to retaliate in some way (nobody knows how).
The 15th of December 2019 is an important date on which $160 Billion of tariffs on imports to the USA, get lumped on China or they are withdrawn. If the tariffs are withdrawn, expect markets to head to the moon (stupidly). If the tariffs are applied, expect a correction of some sort.
Bond troubles
In other trouble China has begun the so called nuclear option of selling off US Treasuries. Note that Treasuries are bonds, which means that money is owed to China by America i.e. they represent a debt owed by the US.
Why would China sell off US Treasuries - which are debts owed to China? Perhaps because China expects the US Dollar to be worth less in times to come. It's like this - if I lend you money fixed in USD value, and then you decide to devalue your US dollar by various means, it means I'm getting back less value. For an exploration of Bonds go here .
China holds about $1.2 Trillion of US debt. A sell off of US Treasuries is said to destabilise financial markets. How - is a separate complex story. The point is that China's retaliation on the Hong Kong Act could be this 'nuclear option'.
The point of all this is that there are complex issues affecting the markets.
Disclaimer: Nothing shared here is investment advice or encouragement to trade in securities. If you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Bitcoin "Long" Recovery on the 2 hour (Bump & Grind)Just like those favourite R&B old school bump and grind songs we loved growing up Bitcoin is starting to play our song.
Let me know which slow jam was your favourite jam. What are you listening to now?
Looking at an identified long trade opportunity off the 2hour time frame by the ninja scalper.
This is confirmed on the 15min where will look to manage the trade on awaiting a strong buy alert.
$8542 on GDL support should not hold here as it is resting on the 15min cloud top, would be betting the cloud not holding support as per usual.
We have a negative energy release in the process o coming towards the backside could give the lift needed.
Wait is on the complete energy release before the trade is to be entered.
As always scale into size is important.
Yes a short could work but the longer trade time frame fovours going long after this sell off / shake out is completed.
As we are scaling in this is better to start looking for entry now over shorting then switching.
As always trade ideas are generated from The NinjaSCalper (Part of the trade indicator suite of tools)
#TradeSafe #TradeSocially
None of this is investment advice just for your infotainment and edutainment
US30 LONG 'DOW JONES' As we witnessed a clear bounce off of the 1HR demand area, we should see a retest of the latest record high. With major components of the Dow already reported Q4 profits, we should whiteness some slow down, towards our previous weekly supply (resistance levels *27,250-*27,350). Although we are currently in a bullish sentiment with trade talks taking a sharp turn positive over last week, a retest of our previous resistance zone is eminent, before our push into the $28,000's. A clear wedge forming on the higher time frames, where we should be looking for short opportunities in the 28,300-28,450 area moving into the new year with the presidential election will become the new topic of economic news.
Happy hunting :)
Catastrophe On The WayThis is a weekly chart of the Dow Jones. Notice the ascending wedge. That is a bearish pattern. A big bear is on the way. look at the stochastics down below. Notice we are at a top of the cycle. Once the price bars move outside of the triangle it will break strongly in the direction it breaks the triangle I drew. Whatever direction it goes while breaking the triangle, that’s the direction it will go. If it breaks down it will go heavy to the down side. Look out below!
JP Morgan unwilling to match SoftBank’s perks to WeWork CEO AdamWeWork but WeDon’tGetPaid.
That’s the grim reality J.P. Morgan Chase bankers are facing now that WeWork is close to accepting a deal to sell control of the office-sharing company to SoftBank in a debt and equity package.
J.P. Morgan would have been the so-called “lead left” adviser on WeWork’s IPO and lead financier on an associated $6 billion credit facility, two roles that would have brought in millions in fees. J.P. Morgan is also WeWork’s third-largest external shareholder -- client money rather than bank asset capital -- behind SoftBank and Benchmark.
Instead, the bank will collect a smaller fee for raising money that WeWork won’t use, according to a person familiar with the matter.
In the three weeks since WeWork withdrew its IPO filing, J.P. Morgan has been trying to secure alternative financing to save WeWork, which was set to run out of cash by mid-November CNBC reported last week. The bank has held talks with more than 100 investors to try and pull together a $5 billion debt package — an alternative to SoftBank’s bailout plan.
J.P. Morgan has raised the money but won’t overvalue the company by putting in more equity, according to a person familiar with the matter. The bank also refused to add in a tender offer to its bailout package that would give co-founder and ex-CEO Adam Neumann a path to sell more shares, said the person, who asked not to be named because the plan is confidential. Additionally, SoftBank is paying hundreds of millions to Neumann to leave the board of directors, give up his voting shares and support SoftBank’s takeover, according to Axios — something J.P. Morgan was also unwilling to do, the person said.
CNBC’s David Faber first reported earlier Monday that WeWork is planning on rejecting J.P. Morgan’s financing plan in favor of SoftBank’s, which combines debt and equity. SoftBank is planning on investing between $1 billion and $3 billion in a tender offer, in addition to accelerating a $1.5 billion equity infusion and $5 billion in debt financing, with other syndicates, people familiar with the matter said.
WeWork’s board is likely to meet on Tuesday to finalize details about selling control of the company to SoftBank, said the people, who requested anonymity because the discussions are private.
J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon had worked personally with Neumann on trying to get the company into the public markets. Dimon has made a point of breaking up the Goldman Sachs-Morgan Stanley tech IPO duopoly and has touted his bank’s recent success.
“We’ve made huge progress in Silicon Valley,” Dimon said at a roundtable discussion in Silicon Valley last year.
US30 Buying cycle inside ascending triangleTo be added to my earlier publication wherein I explain to expect a stock rally followed by a larger stock market crash is a stock buying cycle locked up inside an ascending triangle. This particular set of conditions has lead to sudden stock rally and drop of DXY halfway the month of June.
We could expect to see a similar cause and effect from current date until into March next year. Stress signals on the stock market has been rising recently with sudden drops in the early markets of the Asian session. Last down cycle was drawing a cup and handle candle formation and we are now drawing the last bit of the handle. It could mean nothing or it could be just that last extra signal that my earlier predicted stock market rally and crash is in fact going to happen.
Great buy for 20%+ Return for AMTDAMTD is extremely undervalued due to the news of Charles Schwab having 0$ commissions. With TD Ameritrade now offering 0$ commission fees, expect it to recover for a potential 20%+ dip buy opportunity.
Dow Jones: Channel Up turned into a Triangle.Dow Jones is extending the rebound on the Higher Low made yesterday on the 1W Channel Up (RSI = 51.067, MACD = 249.310, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) after the Nonfarm Payrolls missed the forecast today. This fundamentally bullish for the stock index (Fed and rate cut outlook).
Technically the 1W Channel Up failed to make a Higher High last month so the medium term overlay can turn into a Triangle. Thus we revise our target on a Lower High at 27,200.
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