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From Market Underdog to Tech Titan| AppLovin’s Explosive Growth AppLovin: Making Ads Great Again, One Algorithm at a Time AppLovin Corp, a prominent software company valued at $57 billion, offers an advanced mobile marketing platform. Over the past year, its stock price has surged by an impressive 500%, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 39% increase. The company’s financial growth is equally remarkable, with a year over year revenue boost of 40%, a 188% jump in operating profits, and a 300% surge in net income in its latest quarterly report With 40% of the company held by insiders and a shareholder friendly stance that includes share buybacks, AppLovin presents a compelling investment opportunity. Additionally, its valuation remains competitive relative to other software companies, supporting my "buy" rating. From Ad Nerds to Tech Lords, AppLovin’s Secret to Winning Over Wall Street AppLovin operates a comprehensive software platform that helps clients achieve crucial KPIs, such as revenue growth and business expansion. Leveraging AI, its software platform stands out as a powerful tool for advertisers, providing capabilities like automated marketing, customer engagement, and monetization. It’s built to optimize targeted content delivery to the most suitable audience, supported by analytics and monetization features that drive maximum value. At the core of AppLovin’s technology is AXON, an AI engine that powers AppDiscovery. This feature matches advertiser demand with publishing opportunities through a sophisticated real-time auction algorithm, shifting from traditional waterfall systems to an intelligent, programmatic approach. AppLovin has positioned itself as a leader in the future of advertising, driven by its cutting-edge AI capabilities. I believe there’s immense growth potential here that the company is just beginning to explore. Performance In the third quarter, AppLovin reported a 39% year-over-year revenue increase, moving from $864 million to $1.2 billion. This marks its highest-ever quarterly revenue and extends its streak of sequential topline gains to seven quarters. For the first nine months of 2024, AppLovin saw a 43% year-to-date revenue increase, largely fueled by a 76% rise in software platform revenue. This growth was driven by AppDiscovery, whose installations surged by 39% in Q3, underscoring its strong appeal to advertisers. Beyond software platform growth, AppLovin’s in-app purchases and advertising revenues also increased modestly by 3% and 7%, respectively, despite challenging comparisons, supported by a 53% boost in advertising impressions. The company achieved record operating cash flows of over $550 million in Q3, alongside significant margin improvements across gross, operating, and EBITDA levels. These gains highlight the company’s explosive growth and underscore the stock’s 500% rise over the past year. Given AppLovin’s strategic success and positive advertiser response, I anticipate ongoing improvements in cash flow and profit margins. With over $3.3 billion spent on share buybacks since 2022—$980 million in 2024 alone—the company continues to reward its shareholders while capitalizing on its profitable AI-driven platform. Valuation Although APP’s trailing P/E ratio of 74.52 and PS ratio of 19.33 might appear high compared to the IT sector averages, a comparison with peers in the Application Software industry reveals a different perspective. In a peer group of large software companies, APP ranks third in EV/Sales ratio at 18.65 but also boasts a forward topline growth rate of over 24.1%, placing it among the top performers. This high growth potential appears to justify the stock’s premium, positioning it attractively in terms of PS ratio relative to anticipated growth. Despite recent heavy buying, APP remains an appealing value investment. As long as it maintains its relative positioning, I continue to view the stock favorably. Risks Despite my optimism, I recognize that AppLovin’s momentum could be part of a broader AI-driven market surge, raising concerns about a potential AI bubble. If the market faces a downturn similar to the dot-com bubble, APP could experience a sharper decline than its peers, especially given its relatively weak balance sheet. Additionally, with an RSI of 96 signaling heavy overbuying, there may be potential for a future correction. While APP’s 500% rise is impressive, it could be vulnerable if the market undergoes a broader correction Conclusion Advertising is on the cusp of an AI driven transformation, and AppLovin is well-positioned to capitalize on this shift with its powerful AI-enabled platform. Despite the stock’s impressive 12-month performance, there’s still significant growth potential
NASDAQ:APPLong
by moonypto
2
Can Tencent salvage Ubisoft's sinking ship?Ubisoft’s stock pumped 35% couple of days ago following a Bloomberg report suggesting that Tencent may either acquire the company or take it private Although the French gaming company didn’t confirm or deny the speculation, it did state that it’s considering "all strategic options" for the benefit of its stakeholders and will notify the market when necessary If Tencent proceeds, it would mark another significant acquisition in a wave of major gaming deals over recent years: - Activision Blizzard acquired by Microsoft for $69 billion in 2023. - Zynga acquired by Take-Two for $12.7 billion in 2022. - ZeniMax Media acquired by Microsoft for $7.5 billion in 2021. - Savvy Games acquired by Scopely for $4.9 billion in 2023. - Bungie acquired by Sony for $3.7 billion in 2022. - Glu Mobile acquired by EA for $2.4 billion in 2021. - Keywords Studios acquired by EQT for $2.4 billion in 2024. Ubisoft’s valuation sits at just $2 billion, nearly 90% below its peak in 2021! The stock fell by more than 40% in September alone, so this recent surge is only a brief reprieve. Given its diminished value, a potential buyer offering a premium wouldn’t necessarily be a massive win. So, how should we interpret this news, and what can we anticipate for future gaming M&A activity? Let’s break it down. Key Points 1.Ubisoft’s Challenges 2.Potential Buyers 3.IP Gold Rush 4.Future of Gaming M&A 1. Ubisoft’s Challenges Ubisoft has faced setbacks including canceled games, delays, and a dip in quality in the post-pandemic era. Let’s take a look at the fiscal year 2024, which ends in March. Consider this metric reflects the total amount spent by users within a period, covering game sales, in-game purchases, subscriptions, and downloadable content (DLC). It’s an important measure of business performance, with net bookings recognized as revenue over time, depending on content delivery and user engagement Key takeaways: Digital-first: 86% of Ubisoft's net bookings come from digital sales (premium, free-to-play, and subscriptions). It was 12% in 2013, illustrating the transformative past decade. Far behind on mobile: Ubisoft has trailed its peers, with only 7% of revenue coming from mobile. In contrast, nearly half of the industry’s revenue comes from smartphones. Margins improved after cost-cutting: Digital games are a high gross margin business, particularly with the back catalog (title released in previous years) making up nearly two-thirds of net bookings. Targeted restructurings impacted FY23, making the short-term margin trend misleading. Ubisoft laid off 1,700 employees between September 2022 and March 2024, roughly 6% of its workforce. Short-lived turnaround: FY23 was a challenging year, with Net bookings collapsing by 18% with the underperformance of Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope and Just Dance 2023. In FY24, Net bookings rebounded sharply, growing 34% with the successful release of Assassin’s Creed Mirage and The Crew Motorfest. FY25 Collapses in a Week: After the underperformance of Star Wars Outlaws (released at the end of August and originally expected to be a blockbuster) and the delayed launch of Assassin’s Creed Shadows from November to February, Ubisoft revised its FY25 net bookings forecast down to €1.95 billion, a 16% decline year-over-year (compared to the "solid growth" expected earlier). The company now anticipates barely breaking even on an adjusted basis. The decision to delay Assassin’s Creed Shadows just weeks before its scheduled release was influenced by the poor reception of *Star Wars Outlaws*. However, the three-month delay might not be enough to resolve concerns over game quality or criticisms from the Japanese community regarding historical and cultural inaccuracies. But that’s not all! In addition to these financial and operational difficulties, Ubisoft has faced allegations of a toxic workplace. Several former executives from the *Assassin’s Creed* studio were arrested as part of an investigation into sexual assault and harassment. This situation mirrors the downfall of Activision Blizzard in the months leading up to its acquisition by Microsoft, which leads us to potential buyers for Ubisoft. 2. Potential Buyers Ubisoft remains a family-run company, largely overseen by its founders. The latest annual report reveals the following voting rights: - The Guillemot family controls 20.5% - Tencent owns 9.2% In September, minority shareholder AJ Investments claimed it had gained backing from 10% of shareholders and called for Ubisoft to be sold or taken private, estimating a fair value of €40 to €45 per share. With shares currently trading at €13, this seems highly optimistic. So, who are the likely candidates for a Ubisoft buyout? Key Players: -Tencent: Already a significant shareholder, Tencent could increase its stake or seek majority control. As the largest gaming company globally by revenue, Tencent has a history of acquisitions, such as its purchase of Finnish publisher Supercell (*Clash of Clans*) for $8.6 billion in 2016. However, Tencent's aggressive expansion has drawn regulatory scrutiny, especially in the US and Europe, which could complicate any attempt to acquire majority control of Ubisoft. Guillemot Family: The founding family might be interested in reclaiming greater control of Ubisoft and steering it in a new direction. To finance the buyout, they could collaborate with a private equity firm or a strategic investor. However, given Ubisoft's current size and the significant cost associated with a buyout, it could be difficult for the Guillemot family to pursue this path on their own. Other Potential Investors: Private equity firms or strategic investors within the gaming sector might also join a buyout consortium. These investors could be drawn to Ubisoft’s valuable intellectual property (IP) and see potential for a turnaround under new leadership. Gaming Companies: Besides Tencent, the largest gaming revenue players in 2023 are highlighted in the visual. -Apple and Google: Although both tech giants have been expanding into gaming, acquiring Ubisoft seems unlikely given their current antitrust scrutiny. -NetEase, EA, and TakeTwo: These companies would find an Ubisoft acquisition to be a straightforward studio consolidation. NetEase, in particular, might find it appealing to broaden its console and PC presence in the West, but Tencent’s involvement could complicate this. -Sony and Microsoft: As first-party publishers, both would benefit from boosting their subscription services with exclusive content. They’ve aggressively acquired studios in recent years. Given that the Activision Blizzard deal was approved, there’s no reason a Ubisoft acquisition couldn’t pass as well. In their latest fiscal year, gaming accounted for 32% of Sony’s revenue and less than 9% of Microsoft’s. 3. IP Gold Rush In the gaming industry, intellectual property (IP) is crucial. Iconic franchises like *Call of Duty*, *Mario*, and *Grand Theft Auto* are multi-billion-dollar assets that significantly impact a company’s future. As a result, many companies are eager to acquire established IPs or gain access to the teams behind them. Why is IP so valuable? -Lower risk: Developing a new AAA game can cost hundreds of millions and take years, with no guarantee of success. Acquiring a popular IP allows companies to tap into an existing fanbase and reduces the risk of failure. -Brand power: Consumers are more inclined to purchase games with familiar characters, worlds, or studios behind them. Well-known creators like Hideo Kojima (*Metal Gear*) and Hidetaka Miyazaki (*Elden Ring*) are just as significant. -Content scalability: Famous IPs can generate revenue through sequels, spin-offs, and licensing deals. Large publishers have the infrastructure to maximize returns across multiple channels. This strategy isn’t unique to gaming. Media giants follow similar patterns: -Amazon’s acquisition of MGM: In 2021, Amazon acquired MGM for $8.5 billion, gaining access to franchises like *James Bond* to enhance its Prime Video content. -Disney’s acquisition of Lucasfilm and Marvel: These acquisitions have delivered massive returns through movies, TV series, and licensing opportunities. Why now? -Consolidation pressure: Subscription services and cross-platform gaming are driving consolidation. Big companies want to secure valuable IPs to differentiate their services and attract loyal customers. Meanwhile, smaller studios are more open to selling early to avoid competing in an increasingly crowded and capital-intensive market. -Value in ownership: Owning IPs in gaming allows companies to create expansive worlds and engage players long-term through updates, expansions, and live services. This keeps players coming back and generates recurring revenue, which is harder to achieve in video content. -Cross media expansion: Popular games can expand into movies, TV series, or theme parks. For instance, *The Last of Us* became a hit HBO show, and Sony is developing TV adaptations for Horizon Zero Dawn and God of War. This leads to more revenue, a broader audience, and long-lasting IP appeal. The Ubisoft Angle Ubisoft’s IPs, like *Assassin’s Creed*, *Far Cry*, and *Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six*, have significant potential for future growth, despite recent struggles. However, realizing that potential might require new leadership or a fresh strategy, which a new owner could provide. Even though Ubisoft faces challenges, its strong portfolio might attract various buyers. For the right acquirer, Ubisoft's problems could represent a chance to buy low and rework its creative direction. As more studios seek to hedge their risks in this changing industry, we can expect more mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the future. 4. The Future of Gaming M&A The gaming industry is constantly evolving, and several trends are fueling a surge in mergers and acquisitions: -Mobile-first: Mobile gaming is the largest and fastest-growing segment, making companies with a strong mobile presence attractive. Examples include Playrix (Gardenscapes,Homescapes) and Scopely (MONOPOLY GO!,Stumble Guys) -Cross-platform: Cross-platform play is becoming the standard, and companies with expertise in this area are in high demand. Unity and Epic Games play vital roles with their popular game engines, while major studios are also building in-house solutions. - Cloud gaming: Still in its early stages, cloud gaming has the potential to revolutionize how games are played. Companies with cloud infrastructure are becoming more valuable, with leaders like Microsoft (Game Pass Ultimate), Sony (PlayStation Plus Premium), and NVIDIA (GeForce Now) pushing the trend. -Metaverse: Beyond AR/VR, virtual worlds like *Roblox* and *Fortnite* have created immersive, social spaces that keep players engaged beyond traditional gameplay. Companies developing these experiences are attractive targets for firms looking to capitalize on this trend. -Web3 & Blockchain: Web3 games enable decentralized ownership and in-game economies powered by blockchain. This trend lets players own and trade digital assets, opening new revenue streams and drawing interest from companies exploring the intersection of gaming and crypto. -AI driven studios: AI is already influencing game development, and its role will only grow. Companies with AI expertise, particularly in game design and player behavior analysis, are becoming highly sought after. As AI reduces development costs, budgets could shift towards live services and marketing. The Big Picture The gaming industry is consolidating, with major players acquiring valuable studios and IPs. While there will always be space for indie games—especially as AI lowers the barrier to entry—industry consolidation will likely strengthen the top companies and leave less room for those in the middle. If a company like Ubisoft, valued at over $12 billion in 2021, is struggling to survive on its own, the future looks bleak for many smaller studios
EURONEXT:UBI
by moonypto
4
NVDA | Unpacking NVIDIA’s Q3 FY25Building the Matrix, One GPU at a Time This week, NVIDIA unveiled its October quarter results, capturing global attention as analysts closely monitored the stock's movements. While Wall Street often emphasizes short-term performance, a broader perspective highlights NVIDIA's remarkable rise. Over two years, its stock value has multiplied tenfold, outpacing tech giants like Alphabet and Amazon in profitability and edging closer to Microsoft and Apple in net income—a meteoric ascent for the history books. The AI Inflection Point NVIDIA's transformation began in November 2022 when OpenAI launched ChatGPT, described by CEO Jensen Huang as AI's "iPhone moment." Fast-forward two years, and NVIDIA's latest Blackwell GPU architecture is scaling up production, meeting surging demand. As Huang explained, "The age of AI is in full steam," driven by foundational model training and inference advancements. Two major trends underpin this shift: -Platform evolution:Transitioning from traditional coding to machine learning. -Emergence of AI factories:New industries powered by generative AI applications. AI native startups are booming, and successful inference services are proliferating. If AI's trajectory mirrors the mobile revolution, this is akin to 2009 a pivotal moment with much more innovation ahead. Q3 FY25 Highlights NVIDIA's fiscal year ends in January, and the recently concluded October quarter (Q3 FY25) demonstrated strong momentum: - Revenue: $35.1 billion (+17% quarter-over-quarter), exceeding expectations by $2 billion. - Segment growth:** - Data Center: +17% QoQ ($30.8 billion). - Gaming: +14% QoQ ($3.3 billion). - Automotive: +30% QoQ ($0.4 billion). - Margins: Gross margin at 75%, operating margin at 62%. - Cash flow: Operating cash flow of $17.6 billion; free cash flow of $16.8 billion. - Q4 FY25 Guidance: Anticipates +7% revenue growth ($37.5 billion). Key Drivers and Insights -Data Center Dominance:Contributing 88% of overall revenue, driven by Hopper GPUs and the anticipated Blackwell production ramp. -Gaming Growth:Propelled by GeForce RTX GPU demand and back-to-school sales. -Automotive Innovation:Growth fueled by AI-powered autonomous driving solutions. -Margins:Slight compression due to Blackwell production ramp, with recovery expected as production scales. Looking ahead, demand for NVIDIA's Hopper and Blackwell GPUs outpaces supply, likely remaining constrained into FY26. However, challenges loom, including intensifying competition from AMD and custom AI chips. The AI Scaling Debate Skeptics argue AI scalability may be approaching its limits, but Huang is optimistic, citing advancements in reinforcement learning and inference-time scaling. He emphasized that AI's growth is driven by empirical laws, suggesting scalability could be extended through methods like post-training and test-time scaling. CEO and CFO Perspectives - Huang likens modern data centers to "AI factories," producing intelligence like power plants generate electricity. - The shift to "physical AI" unlocks applications in industrial and robotics sectors, powered by NVIDIA's Omniverse. - Blackwell GPUs are delivering significant cost reductions and accelerating AI workloads. Investment Outlook Despite valuation concerns, NVIDIA's profitability is tangible. However, the company's reliance on sustained GPU demand and a concentrated customer base presents risks. Meanwhile, competition from AMD is intensifying. Final Thoughts If ChatGPT was AI's "iPhone moment," the transformation is just beginning. Like the app economy in 2009, the AI-first revolution is poised to unlock entirely new markets and reshape industries. NVIDIA's leadership positions it at the forefront of this multi-trillion-dollar opportunity.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by moonypto
NTDOY | NINTENDO & Nintendo Switch 2 🍄The next Nintendo console might arrive in 2024 Nintendo has reportedly demonstrated the Nintendo Switch 2 behind closed doors at Gamescom last month.some trusted developers got an early look at the Switch 2 and some tech demos of how games run on the unannounced system. There was reportedly a demo of an improved version of Zelda: Breath of the Wild that’s designed to run on the more advanced hardware inside the Nintendo Switch 2, VGC corroborated the claims and revealed that Nintendo also showcased Epic Games’ The Matrix Awakens Unreal Engine 5 tech demo running on the type of hardware Nintendo is targeting for its next console. The demo reportedly used Nvidia’s DLSS upscaling technology with ray tracing enabled, suggesting Nintendo and Nvidia are working on a significant chip upgrade for this next-gen console. in July that a new Nintendo Switch is being planned for a 2024 release. With 43 years of making immensely popular video games under its belt, you'd think that the video game pioneers at Nintendo probably have the business of success fully figured out. But companies must change with the times and, according to Nintendo of America president Doug Bowser, that means finding a way to engage people with the legacy brand that might never pick up a video game controller. Bowser spoke about what the company learned this year during the Nintendo Live event in Seattle, Wa. on Sept 1, referencing the enormous box office success of the "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" as one of its key indicators that Nintendo has the ability to reach an audience beyond those that naturally reach for a controller. "We launched The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which very quickly became the second-largest box office grossing animated film of all time at $1.3 billion," Bowser said. "We launched The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, which, 18 million units later after a very brief period of time, it's one of our fastest launch titles ever, and then the event today. So it's really this drumbeat of activities, entertainment-based activities where we're trying to find ways to continue to introduce more and more people, not just players, but people to Nintendo IP… So that's what we're excited about." Bowser also spoke about the launch of Super Nintendo World at Universal Hollywood, which delivered an impressive 25% bump to Comcast's Q1 earnings this year. "And if I think about folding into the bigger strategy, this year has really been a very unique, and I dare say banner year for Nintendo in a lot of ways," Bowser said.Nintendo also continues to benefit from the sales of its aging Nintendo Switch console, with 129.53 million units sold worldwide. That makes it the company's second best-selling console of all time, right behind the handheld Nintendo DS, which sold 154.2 million units before it was discontinued in 2014. The success of "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" drove rumors that another big feature film based on Nintendo's flagship Legend of Zelda series was coming as well, but Nintendo hasn't made a formal announcement about that ... yet. Gaming is in the midst of an M&A arms race. The protracted pandemic has made sure of that. Companies from all sides of the market, Microsoft, Take Two, Sony to name a few, are cutting deals to secure content. The volume and scale of those deals point to where gaming is heading - the precipice of major shake-ups across its core commercial and distribution models. Microsoft's eye bulging $69 billion deal for Activision is a testament to that shift. Costly as the deal is, it's arguably a small price to pay to secure some of the biggest franchises in gaming: Call of Duty, Warcraft, Candy Crush and Overwatch. Even more so, considering those titles span a community of 400 million active monthly players. In other words, the deal is the boldest sign yet that content is the future of gaming, not consoles. Should you invest in Nintendo? The question comes down to whether you are willing to pay about SGX:40B for Nintendo's IP and potential earnings powers. To me, a company that continues to produce in-demand and profitable content is worth that price tag, especially after having generated a net profit of 432.7B yen, or $2.97B in FY2023. That's a P/E of about 13.5 after subtracting out Nintendo's current assets - not a hefty sum given everything Nintendo has going for it. Nintendo's strategy seems to be working, with The Super Mario Bros. Movie not only performing well on its own but also providing a boost to other Nintendo offerings. While there are concerns, there are also plenty of catalysts moving ahead. I am excited to see new Nintendo initiatives including more theatrical releases of their IP and their (positive) effects on the rest of the company's products.
OTC:NTDOYLong
by moonypto
Streaming Wars | Who’s Winning, Losing, and Sharing Passwords ?Netflix Is Laughing, Cable Is Crying, and Amazon Is Sneaking Up Highlights for Today - Trends and Market Share - Disney: Streaming Profits on the Rise - Comcast: Cable Restructuring Underway - Warner Bros : Box Office Challenges - Paramount: Streaming Growth Amidst Challenges In the Battle for Loyalty, One Fact Stands Out: Netflix vs the Rest 1. Trends and Market Share Platforms like YouTube Premium, Amazon Prime, and Apple TV+ do not report quarterly numbers. Additionally, Disney+ Hotstar is excluded due to its planned merger with Reliance in 2025. Streaming continues to replace traditional linear TV, benefiting all players. Nielsen reports streaming comprised 41% of US TV time in September 2024, a 3.5-point increase year-over-year, primarily at Cable’s expense. Key Trends to Watch -Password-Sharing Crackdown: Following Netflix’s success, Disney introduced paid sharing in the US in late September, with effects expected to emerge in Q4. Max is also gearing up for this initiative. -Amazon Prime’s Growing Presence:CEO Andy Jassy revealed that Prime Video attracts over 200 million global viewers monthly. Combining exclusive content, live sports, and e-commerce integration, Amazon’s ecosystem presents a credible challenge to Netflix. -YouTube’s Dominance in Living Rooms: YouTube accounts for over 25% of US streaming TV time (excluding YouTube TV) and continues to grow. Alphabet disclosed that YouTube’s ads and subscriptions brought in $50 billion in revenue over the last 12 months, surpassing Netflix’s $38 billion. -Subscriber Trends: Tentpole events, like the Olympics for Peacock or hit series like House of the Dragon for Max, drove sign-ups. However, retention remains a challenge for all but Netflix. 2. Disney: Streaming Profits Rise Disney’s fiscal year ends in September, with Q3 FY24 covering the June quarter. -Streaming Profits:Disney’s direct2consumer (DTC) segment, which includes Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+, posted its second consecutive profitable quarter, generating $321 million in operating income. Core Disney+ subscribers rose by 4.4 million, reaching 123 million, driven by ad-supported tiers. -Box Office Wins: Hits like Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine powered $316 million in studio profits. Disney became the first studio to surpass $4 billion in global box office revenue in 2024. - Challenges in Parks: Parks and Experiences revenue dropped 6% to $1.7 billion, impacted by hurricanes, rising costs, and competition from the Paris Olympics. Domestic attendance held steady, while international parks struggled. - Linear TV Decline: Revenue fell 6%, with profits plunging 38% to $498 million as cord-cutting and reduced ad sales weighed heavily. Disney plans to integrate streaming and linear TV rather than divest assets. - Optimistic Outlook: Disney expects earnings growth in FY25 (high single digits) and double digits in FY26 and FY27. Blockbusters like Moana2 and Mufasa:The Lion King are anticipated to maintain momentum. Takeaway: Disney’s Q4 highlighted strides in its streaming turnaround, buoyed by box office wins. However, the decline in linear TV underscores the challenges of transitioning in a shifting media landscape. Strong content and a focus on profitability position Disney for success under Bob Iger’s leadership. 3.Comcast: Cable Restructuring -Olympics Drive Growth:The Paris Olympics boosted NBCUniversal’s revenue by 37%, generating $1.2 billion in advertising and adding 3 million Peacock subscribers, which now total 36 million. -Streaming Expansion: Peacock’s revenue rose 82% year-over-year to $1.5 billion, with losses narrowing to $436 million from $565 million last year. -Cable Struggles: Cord-cutting led to a loss of 365,000 cable TV subscribers, with video segment revenue down 6.2%. Comcast is exploring a spinoff of cable networks like Bravo and CNBC to prioritize growth areas. -Theme Parks Slow: Theme park revenue dipped 5% to $2.3 billion as domestic attendance normalized post-COVID. -Broadband Trends:Despite losing 87,000 broadband customers, revenue increased 3%, with higher average revenue per user. Takeaway:Comcast’s Q3 reflected both opportunities and challenges. While the Olympics showcased its media strength, declines in cable TV and theme parks persist. Streamlining through a cable spinoff could sharpen its focus, but sustaining growth in Peacock and broadband remains critical. 4.Warner Bruh : Box Office Challenges -Streaming Growth:Max gained 7.2 million subscribers, reaching 110.5 million globally, supported by international expansion and hits like *House of the Dragon*. Streaming revenue rose 9%, marking Warner’s first profit since 2022. -Box Office Struggles:Studio revenue declined 17%, with theatrical revenue falling 40% due to a weaker film slate (*Beetlejuice Beetlejuice* and *Twisters* compared to last year’s *Barbie*). Video game revenue dropped 31%. -Mixed Network Results:Network revenue grew 3% from the Olympics and *Shark Week*, but advertising revenue fell 13%. The $9.1 billion NBA impairment from Q2 continues to loom. -Debt and Cash Flow Issues:** Free cash flow dropped 69% to $632 million, with $41 billion in debt. Warner renewed its Charter Communications deal to bolster stability. -CEO’s Confidence:David Zaslav emphasized Max’s momentum, projecting $1 billion in streaming profits by 2025 and hinting at password-sharing monetization. Takeaway:Warner’s Q3 highlighted streaming success but underscored its dependence on Max as traditional film and TV segments falter. Balancing debt, declining cash flow, and expanding streaming profitability will be key to its stability. 5.Paramount: Streaming Growth -Streaming Success:Paramount+ gained 3.5 million subscribers, reaching 72 million, thanks to sports like the NFL and UEFA and shows like *Tulsa King*. The streaming unit achieved a $49 million operating income, its second consecutive profitable quarter. -TV and Film Challenges:TV revenue fell 6% due to lower ad sales and declining cable subscribers. The film division saw revenue plummet 34%, with theatrical revenue dropping 71%. -Merger Progress:Paramount’s merger with Skydance Media is on track for early 2025, following the exploration of 12 potential bidders. -Cost-Cutting:Paramount has completed 90% of its $500 million cost reduction initiative, resulting in layoffs and asset write-downs. -Strategic Shift:Paramount is seeking a streaming joint-venture partner to better compete with Netflix and Disney while managing cable TV’s decline. Takeaway: Paramount’s streaming gains are encouraging, but traditional TV and film struggles persist. The Skydance merger offers a potential transformation, though stabilizing legacy businesses remains a significant hurdle.
NASDAQ:CMCSAEducation
by moonypto
15
The Big Exit | How One Auditor Walked Away from Super MicroThe Governance Shortfall: Inside Super Micro’s Auditor Crisis On Wednesday, shares of the high performance server and storage solutions provider faced renewed selling pressure after the unexpected resignation of its audit firm, Ernst & Young LLP(EY) In July 2024, EY alerted the Audit Committee about several concerns related to governance, transparency, internal controls, and the risk of delayed filing of the company's annual report. In response, the Board formed an independent Special Committee to investigate these matters, engaging Cooley LLP and forensic accounting firm Secretariat Advisors, LLC. Although EY and the Board received preliminary updates on the investigation, the final conclusions have not yet been shared. The ongoing review raised doubts for EY regarding the company’s adherence to the COSO Framework principles for internal controls. EY questioned the company’s commitment to integrity, the independence of the Audit Committee, and the reliability of management’s and the Audit Committee's representations. In its resignation letter, EY expressed its inability to rely on these representations or be associated with the company's financial statements, citing legal and professional obligations. Despite the developments, Super Micro has indicated no expected changes to previously issued financial statements. The company plans to provide a Q1/FY2025 business update next week. However, it’s surprising that management didn’t include preliminary Q1 results in Wednesday's announcement, which could have mitigated the negative impact on its stock. Super Micro is nearing a Nasdaq deadline to either regain compliance with listing requirements or submit a plan. With the auditor’s unexpected departure, it may be difficult for the company to present a viable plan, raising the risk of a near-term delisting. This resignation comes at a critical time for Super Micro, as its rapid growth requires substantial working capital. Based on management’s projections, FY2025 cash needs could reach up to $3 billion, likely necessitating additional capital early next year. However, raising funds without audited financials could be challenging, potentially forcing Super Micro to relinquish market share to competitors like Dell Technologies or Hewlett Packard Enterprise. In my view, EY’s departure increases the likelihood of a prolonged accounting review, which could hinder Super Micro’s ability to secure funding for anticipated growth. Therefore, it is crucial for the company to report strong preliminary Q1/FY2025 results and present a positive outlook next week. Super Micro Computer’s troubles continue, as its auditor resigned due to concerns over management’s integrity and the Audit Committee's independence. This situation makes it unlikely for the company to achieve compliance with Nasdaq requirements soon, raising the potential for a near-term delisting. With a need to re-enter the capital markets in early 2025, audited financials remain essential. A failure to secure funding could result in significant market share loss to major competitors like Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise. Given these challenges, the increased risk of prolonged financial review, and a likely near-term delisting, I am reaffirming my "Sell" rating on Super Micro Computer's common shares.
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by moonypto
2
TCI EXPRESS Massive Short Trade Caught on RisologicalTechnical Analysis: TCI Express (15-Minute Timeframe) The chart demonstrates a highly successful short trade on TCI Express, with a stellar 12% decline captured within just five trading days. Here's a breakdown of the technical scenario: Trade Overview Stock: TCI Express Timeframe: 15-Minute Entry Price: ₹986 (on 7th November) Current Market Price: ₹867 Price Movement: -₹119 (-12%) in approximately 5 days. Trend Confirmation: The chart showcases a well-defined downtrend with consistent lower highs and lower lows. This structure highlights strong bearish momentum. Indicators in Action: The visible red bands represent a dynamic resistance zone (Risological Trading Indicator). The price has consistently respected these resistance levels, confirming the strength of the sell-off. Volume Support: The volume aligns with the price action, increasing volume during the breakdown reinforced the bearish sentiment. Momentum Breakdown: The significant gap and subsequent bearish continuation patterns suggest that sellers are in complete control, with no signs of reversal yet. The tight clustering of the Risological resistance bands further validates the ongoing strength of the downtrend. Performance This short trade has outperformed expectations by delivering a 12% return in just five days, underscoring the precision of the entry at ₹986. Such rapid declines in a short timeframe highlight the effectiveness of the technical analysis and adherence to trend-following strategies. Outlook Support Zone: The price may find psychological support near ₹850, where traders should watch for potential profit booking or consolidation. Next Levels to Watch : A break below ₹850 could trigger further downside, targeting ₹820 or lower. Reversal Triggers: Reversal signals, such as a strong bullish engulfing pattern or price closing above the resistance bands, could indicate an exit point. Key Takeaway This short trade exemplifies disciplined execution, leveraging technical indicators and market momentum to achieve remarkable gains in a short timeframe. With the stock still in a robust downtrend, traders should continue monitoring for trailing stop adjustments to maximize profits while managing risk effectively.
NSE:TCIEXPShort
by ProfitsNinja
Meta's Q3 Financial Results | Growth and the Future of AI & AR Meta's Q3 Earnings: AI Investments Shape the Future of Engagement and Monetization Last week, Meta shared its Q3 earnings, revealing a familiar trend: while the results were strong, rising AI investments cast a shadow. With over 3.2 billion daily users across Meta’s apps, the company alongside Google and YouTube is in a prime position to bring AI into the mainstream. However, this shift could potentially disrupt the creator economy as we know it So, how will this affect the future of Meta’s apps? Did you know META is 222% up since our first analysis ? Let’s break down the quarter and explore the latest updates Today’s Highlights - Overview of Meta Q3 FY24 - Recent business highlights - Key quotes from the earnings call - The potential decline of the creator economy 1. Meta Q3 FY24 Overview Meta operates within two main segments FoA: Family of Apps (Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp) RL: Reality Labs (virtual reality hardware and software) Daily Active People in FoA grew by 5% year over year, reaching 3.29 billion. However, user growth has slowed, with Meta adding 20 million daily users in Q3 2024 down from 50 million earlier in 2024. Meta’s reach now extends to over half of the global population aged 15 to 80, meaning future growth will hinge more on engagement and ad efficiency than adding new users. Key Insights from Zuckerberg: -Facebook: Positive engagement trends among Gen Z in the U.S. -Instagram: Sustains “strong” growth globally. -WhatsApp: Now surpasses 2 billion calls daily. -Meta AI: 500 million monthly active users. -Threads: 275 million monthly active users, up from 200 million in Q2, with notable growth in regions like the U.S., Taiwan, and Japan (currently not monetized and unlikely to drive significant revenue by 2025). Advertising Performance: - Ad impressions grew 7% year-over-year (compared to 10% in Q2). - Average ad price increased by 11% year-over-year (10% in Q2). - Average revenue per user grew by 12% year-over-year, reaching $12.29 (compared to Snap at $3.10 and Reddit at $3.58). - Despite some critics suggesting potential inflation due to bot activity, ARPU growth points to real ad value; fake users can’t generate revenue. Financials - Revenue rose 19% year-over-year to $40.6 billion. - FoA saw a 19% increase, reaching $40.3 billion. - RL grew by 29% to $0.3 billion. - Gross margin was 82% (-1pp Y/Y, +1pp Q/Q). - Operating margin stood at 43% (+2pp Y/Y, +5pp Q/Q). - FoA operating profit was $21.8 billion (54% margin, +2pp Y/Y). - RL reported an operating loss of $4.4 billion (down slightly from $4.5 billion in Q2). - EPS rose by 37% year-over-year to $6.03. Cash Flow - Operating cash flow was $24.7 billion (61% margin, +1pp Y/Y). - Free cash flow was $15.5 billion (38% margin, -2pp Y/Y). Balance Sheet - Cash and marketable securities totaled $71 billion - Long-term debt was $29 billion Guidance: - Q4 FY24 revenue is forecasted at $46.5 billion in the mid-range - FY24 expenses estimated at $96-$98 billion (previously $96-$99 billion) - FY24 Capex is expected to be $38-40 billion (previously $37-$40 billion) Summary Analysis Revenue growth was 20% in constant currency (compared to 23% in Q2), with ad revenue growth driven by increased ad prices. Strong demand for ads continued, largely due to higher ad performance, especially in online commerce, healthcare, and entertainment. Geographically, North America and Europe led growth at 21%, while Asia slowed from 28% to 15%. Reality Labs’ revenue rose 29%, mainly from hardware sales, though the division continues to post significant losses. As shown in the visuals, FoA operating profit reached an all-time high, while RL’s losses remain around $4 billion quarterly. Headcount increased by 9% year-over-year to 72,404, signaling a return to hiring, particularly in priority areas such as monetization, infrastructure, Reality Labs, and generative AI. Stock buybacks amounted to nearly $9 billion in Q3, up from $6 billion in Q2, though lower than the $15 billion in Q1. Management’s confidence in Meta’s stock remains strong, with an additional $1.3 billion paid in dividends. Capital expenditures climbed by 36% to $9.2 billion compared to $8.5 billion in Q2, with guidance staying on track. Management anticipates “significant acceleration in infrastructure expenses” for 2025, which will affect both the cost of revenue and R&D expenses. Despite heavy AI spending, Meta remains highly profitable, generating nearly $52 billion in free cash flow over the past 12 months—just shy of Alphabet’s $56 billion over the same period. Q4 FY24 revenue guidance points to deceleration, with mid-range growth forecasted at 16%. Let’s examine Meta’s investments and market position further. 2. Recent Business Highlights Meta Orion Meta's Orion AR glasses mark an ambitious step towards a future beyond smartphones, showcasing the potential of augmented reality (AR): -Prototype Status: Orion is a high-tech AR prototype, equipped with advanced features, but high production costs keep it out of reach for consumers. -Advanced AR Display: Using Micro LED projectors and silicon carbide lenses, Orion offers a broad field of view with sharper visuals than most current AR devices. -Interactive AI Integration: With Meta's generative AI, Orion enables users to interact with virtual elements, identify real-world objects, and create immediate solutions, such as recipes. -Complex Hardware: Orion relies on a neural wristband for control and a wireless compute puck, creating a multi-part system. -High Cost & Limited Production: With a price tag estimated at $10,000, Orion isn’t ready for mass production. Meta has produced around 1,000 units for demonstrations and internal testing. - Future Vision: Meta aims to release a consumer-friendly AR device within a few years, working toward a slimmer, more affordable model that could rival smartphone prices. Orion reflects Meta's goal to lead the next wave of computing, though significant technological and cost hurdles remain. Timing and Competitive Landscape**: Zuckerberg’s reveal of Orion may aim to justify Reality Labs' annual $16-20 billion operating loss to shareholders and gather feedback. Meanwhile, Apple has initiated its “Atlas” project to explore the smart glasses market, indicating potential plans to shift focus from the high-end $3,500 Vision Pro VR headset. How AI Is Already Impacting Meta Beyond future-oriented projects like Orion, Meta’s AI advancements are actively enhancing its core business in two strategic areas: engagement and monetization. -Engagement: Meta's recommendation engine uses AI to tailor feeds with highly relevant video content, keeping users engaged. AI-driven prediction systems further increase app usage by showing content that maximizes interaction. -Monetization: AI boosts ad efficiency across the entire lifecycle—from creation to performance tracking. Generative AI assists with ad copy, images, and video, while advanced models analyze user behavior to serve targeted ads, improving conversion rates incrementally. -Meta AI Studio: This platform allows developers to create, train, and deploy custom AI models within Meta’s ecosystem. By enabling personalized assistants, interactive AI, and AR applications, Meta seeks to drive new consumer apps and maximize ad potential across its platforms. Market Share Meta’s advertising revenue hit $39.9 billion in Q3, reaching 81% of Google’s search revenue, up from 76% last year. Meta’s ad revenue is expanding at the same rate as Amazon’s, despite Meta’s larger base, signaling regained market share and effective adaptation to the post-ATT environment. 3. Key Quotes from the Earnings Call CEO Mark Zuckerberg - On AI and the Family of Apps: “Improvements to our AI-driven feed and video recommendations have led to an 8% increase in time spent on Facebook and a 6% increase on Instagram this year alone. More than a million advertisers used our GenAI tools to create over 15 million ads last month, and we estimate businesses using Image Generation are seeing a 7% conversion lift.” -On Llama 4: “We're training the Llama 4 models on a cluster larger than 100,000 H100s, more extensive than anything reported elsewhere.” -On RayBan Meta Glasses: “Glasses are the ideal AI form factor as they let your AI see, hear, and communicate with you. Demand remains strong, with the new clear edition selling out quickly.” -On Meta AI: “We’re on track for Meta AI to become the world’s most used AI assistant by year-end, with popular uses including information gathering, task assistance, and content exploration.” CFO Susan Li -On Recommendations: “Inspired by scaling laws observed in large language models, we’ve developed new ranking architectures for Facebook video that enhance relevance and increase watch time” -On Capital Allocation: “We’re optimistic about our opportunities and believe that investing now in infrastructure and talent will accelerate progress and returns.” 4. The Potential Decline of the Creator Economy Facebook and Instagram have evolved from social networks to content networks, benefiting creators with wide-reaching platforms. However, this era may be coming to a close. -AI-Generated Content: Zuckerberg shared plans to introduce AI-generated and AI-summarized content on Facebook, Instagram, and potentially Threads, gradually shifting away from creator-generated content as the primary engagement driver. -Impact on Creators: As AI learns to identify and generate engaging content, creators could struggle to compete, with algorithms delivering exactly what audiences want. Over time, creators may face a landscape where AI determines the most engaging posts, relegating them to the sidelines in a world increasingly powered by self-generating content. -Why It Matters: Platforms like YouTube share 55% of ad revenue with creators, but Meta does not, meaning that an AI-driven shift isn’t primarily about cost-cutting. Instead, it allows for more integrated ad placements within algorithmic feeds, potentially boosting impressions and conversions. Although AI generated feeds may sound dystopian, current high engagement accounts already use tactics to maximize engagement, meaning the shift to AI might go largely unnoticed by audiences.
NASDAQ:META
by moonypto
2
Intel in Trouble or Ready for Redemption?There is growing potential for QUALCOMM Incorporated to acquire Intel. I now believe that this development has advanced enough to warrant a fresh look at the stock Qualcomm recently approached Intel about a takeover. According to WSJ , Qualcomm has expressed interest in acquiring Intel, which, if realized, would mark one of the most significant deals in recent history Initially, this seemed like a long shot, with limited details emerging from the report. However, QCOM has continued to pursue the idea. Also QCOM has been in contact with Chinese antitrust regulators over the past month about this potential deal and is waiting until after the US presidential election to decide on making a formal offer. Since the election is just less than a month away, I believe this acquisition is becoming more of a possibility that investors should factor into their assessment of INTC. If a deal goes through, it’s likely that the acquisition will come at a premium to the current stock price, creating an opportunity for significant short term gains for investors There is always a chance that no deal will occur. In that case, potential investors should evaluate whether the stock is worth holding as a long-term investment. My outlook here is not optimistic, and I’ll delve into INTC's competitive position, as indicated by its latest inventory data, in the next section Given these two potential scenarios, I am upgrading my rating from "Sell" to "Hold." In summary, the possibility of QCOM acquiring INTC introduces a major upside catalyst that I hadn’t accounted for in my previous analysis. This potential acquisition helps offset some of the concerns about INTC as a standalone company. Unlike many financial metrics that can be interpreted in different ways, inventory levels are more straightforward. He also explained that inventory trends can provide early indicators of business cycles. For cyclical industries, rising inventories can signal overproduction as demand wanes, while shrinking inventories can indicate strong demand As shown in INTC’s most recent balance sheet, its inventory levels have generally been on the rise. For instance, in December 2014, inventory was valued at $ 4.273 billion, while the most recent figures show an increase to $ 11.244 billion. In some cases, rising inventory can signal business growth with increasing demand and production capacity, which was true for Intel in the early part of the last decade. When inventory growth exceeds the pace of business growth, it becomes a red flag. In this scenario, rising inventory suggests weakened competitiveness and declining market position—an issue that Intel currently faces, in my opinion. The following chart helps illustrate this point, showing a comparison of days of inventory outstanding (DIO) for Intel and NVIDIA over the last five years, from 2020 to 2024. DIO is a measure of how many days it takes a company to sell its inventory Given Intel's inventory buildup and declining competitive edge, I find its current valuation multiples hard to justify. Specifically, the chart highlights a comparison of price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios between Intel, NVIDIA, and AMD. Focusing on non-GAAP earnings estimates for fiscal years FY1 through FY3, Intel is currently trading with the highest P/E ratio for FY1 at 87.7 almost twice the multiple of NVIDIA and AMD, which are at 46.29 and 46.25, respectively That said, the outlook changes somewhat when considering the years further ahead. For instance, in FY2, NVIDIA’s expected P/E ratio rises to the highest at 32.77, compared to Intel's 20.02 and AMD's 29.02. However, I want to emphasize the substantial uncertainty in Intel's earnings forecasts. As shown in the next chart, the consensus estimates for Intel's earnings per share (EPS) in FY 2024 range from a low of $0.15 to a high of $0.31 (a more than twofold variation) and from a low of $0.65 to a high of $2.1 (an almost fourfold variation). Given such uncertainty, I believe investors should be cautious about relying too heavily on forward P/E ratios too far into the future. Both Intel and NVIDIA have experienced significant fluctuations in DIO over the years. Notably, both companies saw a spike in 2023 due to the COVID pandemic, which disrupted global supply chains. As the disruption faded, both firms saw a recovery (ie, a reduction in DIO). the difference in recovery is striking. Intel's DIO peaked at over 150 days in 2023 and has since decreased to 125 days a modest reduction but still above its historical average of 114 days. In contrast, NVIDIA's DIO surged to over 200 days but has rapidly dropped to 76 days, which is not only below its four-year average of 97.9 days but also near its lowest level in four years. I expect Intel to face increasing competitive pressure as rivals like NVIDIA and AMD roll out their next-generation chips, particularly NVIDIA’s Blackwell chips. I recommend potential investors keep a close eye on inventory data, as it can signal changes in competitive dynamics for the reasons discussed here. In addition to inventory issues and valuation risks, Intel faces a few other specific challenges. A significant portion of Intel’s current product lineup is concentrated in certain segments, such as PCs, which I believe are nearing market saturation plus a large share of Intel’s revenue comes from China. Given the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, this heavy reliance on China poses a considerable geopolitical risk. These factors may limit Intel’s ability to adapt to technological advancements and shifting geopolitical conditions The potential for a QUALCOMM acquisition has emerged as a new major upside catalyst. While my outlook on Intel’s business remains pessimistic based on the latest inventory data, the acquisition possibility partially offsets these negatives, leading me to upgrade my rating from Sell to Hold or if you are risk taker like Me, load the dip
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by moonypto
Berkshire Hathaway | No More Apple Pie & Bank Bread!No More Apple Pie and Bank Bread | Buffett’s Recipe for Market Caution Berkshire Hathaway has recently disclosed its earnings amid fluctuating around a $1 trillion valuation. A notable update is its continued reduction of stakes in overvalued assets, including a 20% decrease in holdings of Apple and Bank of America, boosting its cash reserves to $325 billion Although Warren Buffett himself isn't favoring share buybacks at present, Berkshire Hathaway stands as a compelling investment option Why Berkshire Hathaway's $325 Billion Cash Pile Signals Market Caution The company's net earnings remain subject to significant fluctuations due to rules requiring valuation changes of investment holdings. However, there was a slight decline in operating earnings, mainly driven by lower insurance underwriting income. Despite this, that segment is historically volatile, and year over year aka YoY, the company has maintained strong performance. Yea2date aka YTD, operating earnings have risen over 10%, totaling just under $33 billion compared to just below $29 billion last year. This points to an annualized earnings estimate of approximately $44 billion, implying a price2earnings aka P/E ratio of about 22, without factoring in over $320 billion in cash and significant investment holdings. Excluding cash and investments, the adjusted P/E ratio is closer to single digits. Share buybacks have paused, reflected in a ~1% decrease in the outstanding shares YoY, signaling Berkshire's assessment of current market valuations. Segment Highlights The various business units within Berkshire Hathaway showcase its robust asset base and earning capacity. Insurance underwriting income saw a sharp YoY drop, but other business areas performed strongly. Income from insurance investments remained solid, and BNSF, its railroad subsidiary, also showed strong results despite a double digit YoY decline. Berkshire Hathaway Energy continues its growth, cementing its position in the utility sector with significant renewable energy ventures. For context, NextEra Energy (NEE), with a market capitalization of $160 billion, posted quarterly earnings around 10% higher. Berkshire's other controlled and non-controlled businesses contribute over $13 billion annually, underpinning its diversification and consistent earnings performance. This strength across segments underscores its formidable financial health. Market Context Currently, market valuations are elevated by historical standards. Excluding periods of earnings dips, market enthusiasm is exceptionally high, with the S&P 500 P/E ratio nearing 30x, approaching levels last seen in 1999. Buffett and Berkshire appear to view a 3% yield from such a P/E as unattractive, especially when bonds offer higher returns. The 2008 Playbook Berkshire's track record of effectively utilizing its cash reserves is notable. Excluding its insurance float, the company still holds $150 billion in cash. During the 2008 financial crisis, Berkshire leveraged its liquidity for strategic investments in companies like General Electric, Swiss Re, Dow Chemical, and Bank of America, as well as finalizing the full acquisition of BNSF in 2010. This proactive use of capital proved advantageous. The current strategic sale of assets suggests Berkshire is preparing for potential market downturns. Given high S&P 500 valuations, reallocating part of an S&P 500 position into Berkshire Hathaway could be wise, ensuring exposure to a cash-rich portfolio capable of seizing future opportunities. Meanwhile, Berkshire’s earnings are valued lower than the broader market, potentially minimizing major downturn risks. Investment Risks A key risk is that timing the market is inherently challenging, with the adage "time in the market beats timing the market" serving as a caution. If Berkshire's market outlook is incorrect, its $300+ billion in cash could underperform while broader markets remain strong, which would diminish its appeal as an investment. Final Thoughts Berkshire Hathaway has taken the bold step of liquidating some of its most significant and priciest holdings, opting to incur capital gains taxes to increase liquidity. This move has bolstered its cash position to $325 billion, $150 billion above its float level. Meanwhile, its strong operational businesses continue generating healthy cash flow. Drawing on its successful strategies during the 2008 crisis, Berkshire appears to be positioning itself for another downturn amid current high market valuations. We advise investors to consider shifting part of their S&P 500 exposure into Berkshire Hathaway for enhanced diversification and potential benefits in a market correction, long story short Berkshire Hathaway remains a robust investment opportunity but wont make millionaire! What do you think moonypto fam?
NYSE:BRK.A
by moonypto
Microsoft’s Big Moves This Quarter | From Activision to AI AgentMicrosoft’s Revenue Surge: The Power of AI, Gaming, and Strategic Investments Microsoft has released its Q1 FY25 earnings for the quarter ending in September The stock saw a 6% drop, indicating the results fell short of investors' high hopes. Trading at over 30 times projected earnings for next year, expectations for Microsoft were significant. CEO Satya Nadella stated “Our AI business is set to exceed an annual revenue run rate of $10 billion next quarter, making it the fastest business in our history to reach this milestone.” This means that AI will soon account for about 4% of Microsoft's total revenue in under three years a remarkable feat for a global giant. If you need a quick summary, here are three main points: 1. ☁️ Azure’s growth is slowing. As Microsoft’s key player in the AI competition, Azure grew 34%, down slightly from 35% in the prior quarter (after adjustments). This comes as Google Cloud raised the bar, with its growth accelerating from 29% to 35% during the same period. 2. 🤖 AI growth is limited by hardware supply, as capacity struggles to meet demand. Data center expansion is a long-term process, and Microsoft is investing heavily in infrastructure, aiming for a growth boost by 2025. 3. 👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 Consumer-focused products like Gaming and Devices are underperforming. Although not essential to Microsoft's core business, their poor performance has impacted overall results. Here’s a breakdown of the insights from the quarter. Overview of today’s insights: - New segmentation. - Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 overview. - Key earnings call highlights. - Future areas to monitor. 1. New Segmentation Revised Business Segments In August, Microsoft announced a reorganization of its business segments, effective this quarter. The purpose? To better align financial reporting with the current business structure and strategic management. Summary of the main changes - Microsoft 365 Commercial revenue consolidation: All M365 commercial revenue, including mobility and security services, now falls under the Productivity and Business Processes segment. -Copilot Pro revenue shift: Revenue from the Copilot Pro tool was moved from Productivity and Business Processes to the More Personal Computing segment under Search and news advertising. -Nuance Enterprise reallocation: Revenue from Nuance, previously part of Intelligent Cloud, is now included in Productivity and Business Processes. -Windows and Devices reporting combination: Microsoft now reports Windows and Devices revenue together. Impact of These Changes: Core Segments Overview: In summary: - The Productivity and Business Processes segment has grown significantly. - The Intelligent Cloud segment has decreased due to the reallocation of Nuance and other revenue. Products and Services Overview: - M365 Commercial now includes Nuance, shifted from the Server products category, along with integrated mobility and security services. - Windows & Devices have been merged into a single, slower-growth category. Additional Insights: - Azure, Microsoft's cloud platform, is reported within 'Server products and cloud services.' Although its growth rate is shared by management, exact revenue figures remain undisclosed. Azure’s past growth figures have been adjusted for consistency, with the last quarter’s constant currency growth recast from 30% to 35%, setting a higher benchmark. Tracking these metrics is challenging due to limited revenue disclosure, but this recast indicates Azure's raised growth expectations. 2. Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 Performance Financial Summary: -Revenue: Up 16% year-over-year, reaching $65.6 billion (exceeding estimates by $1 billion). Post-Activision Blizzard acquisition in October 2023, the growth was 13% excluding the merger. New Product and Services Segmentation Results - Server products & cloud services: $22.2 billion (+23% Y/Y). - M365 Commercial: $20.4 billion (+13% Y/Y). - Gaming: $5.6 billion (+43% Y/Y), influenced by Activision. - Windows & Devices: $4.3 billion (flat Y/Y). - LinkedIn: $4.3 billion (+10% Y/Y). - Search & news advertising: $3.2 billion (+7% Y/Y). - Enterprise & partner services: $1.9 billion (flat Y/Y). - Dynamics: $1.8 billion (+14% Y/Y). - M365 Consumer products: $1.7 billion (+5% Y/Y). Core Business Segments Breakdown: - Productivity and Business Processes: Increased 12% Y/Y to $28.3 billion, supported by M365 Commercial, especially Copilot adoption. - Intelligent Cloud: Grew 20% Y/Y to $24.1 billion, with Azure AI driving growth. - More Personal Computing: Grew 17% Y/Y to $13.2 billion, including a 15-point boost from Activision. Devices fell, but search and ad performance improved under new segmentation. Key Observations: - Microsoft Cloud revenue climbed 22% Y/Y to $39 billion, making up 59% of total revenue (+3 percentage points Y/Y). - Azure continues to drive cloud services and server products' growth. - Xbox growth has surged due to the Activision acquisition since Q2 FY24, expected to stabilize by Q2 FY25. - Windows OEM and devices combined, showing a 2% decline in Q1 FY25. - Office rebranded to Microsoft 365; updated naming will be used starting next quarter. - Margins: Gross margin at 69% (down 2pp Y/Y, 1pp Q/Q); operating margin at 47% (down 1pp Y/Y, up 4pp Q/Q). - EPS: Increased 10% to $3.30, beating by $0.19. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet: - Operating cash flow: $34 billion (52% margin, down 2pp Y/Y). - Cash**: $78 billion; Long-term debt**: $43 billion. Q2 FY25 Outlook: - Productivity and Business Processes: Anticipated 10%-11% Y/Y growth, steady due to M365, Copilot inclusion, and expected LinkedIn growth of ~10%. Dynamics set to grow mid-to-high teens. - Intelligent Cloud: Projected 18%-20% Y/Y growth, slightly slowing, with Azure growth expected between 28%-29%. - More Personal Computing: Forecasted ~$14 billion revenue, declines in Windows, Devices, and Gaming anticipated, with some offset from Copilot Pro. Main Takeaways: - Azure's growth slowed to 34% Y/Y in constant currency, with AI services contributing 12pp, up from 11pp last quarter. This marks a dip from the recast 35% prior and included an accounting boost. - Capacity limitations in AI persist; more infrastructure investments are planned, with reacceleration expected in H2 FY25. - Commercial performance obligations grew 21% to $259 billion, up from 20% in Q4. - Margins were pressured by AI infrastructure investments; Activision reduced the operating margin by 2 points. - Capital expenditures increased by 50% to $15 billion, half dedicated to infrastructure, with further Capex growth expected. - Shareholder returns included $9.0 billion through buybacks and dividends, matching Q4 repurchases. Earnings Call Highlights: Azure AI saw a doubling of usage over six months, positioning it as a foundation for services like Cosmos DB and SQL DB. Microsoft Fabric adoption grew 14% sequentially, signaling rapid uptake. AI Expansion: GitHub Copilot enterprise use surged 55% Q/Q, with AI-powered capabilities used by nearly 600,000 organizations, a 4x increase Y/Y. M365 Copilot has achieved a 70% adoption rate among Fortune 500 companies and continues to grow rapidly. LinkedIn saw accelerated growth in markets like India and Brazil and a 6x quarterly increase in video views, aligning with broader social media trends. Search and Gaming: Bing’s revenue growth surpassed the market, while Game Pass hit a new revenue record, propelled by Black Ops 6 Capital Expenditures: CFO Amy Hood highlighted that half of cloud and AI investments are for long-term infrastructure, positioning the company for sustained growth. 4. Future Outlook Energy Needs: Microsoft, facing higher power demands, plans to revive a reactor at Three Mile Island with Constellation Energy by 2028 to power its AI data centers sustainably. Autonomous AI Agents: Coming in November, these agents will perform tasks with minimal human input, enhancing efficiency. Copilot Studio will allow businesses to customize these agents, with 10 pre-built options to start. Industry Impact: Salesforce has launched Agentforce, signaling increased competition. CEO Mark Benioff recently compared Microsoft’s Copilot to the nostalgic Clippy, stoking rivalry. For further analysis stay tuned
NASDAQ:MSFT
by moonypto
Estee Lauder’s 26% Plunge: Revenue Miss & All Short Targets Hit!Estee Lauder (EL) Stock Analysis: Estee Lauder (EL) saw a dramatic 26% drop, marking a significant bearish turn as all short trade targets on the 15-minute timeframe were swiftly reached. The chart reflects intense selling pressure, with shares plummeting after disappointing earnings and cautious guidance. Key Trade Details: Entry Level: 88.29 Target Levels: TP1: 87.89 TP2: 87.29 TP3: 86.58 TP4: 86.17 Stop Loss: 88.62 Key Market Insights: Revenue Miss and Guidance Withdrawal: Estee Lauder missed revenue expectations, reporting a 4% YoY decline, and pulled its fiscal 2025 outlook, signaling incremental uncertainty in the Chinese market and Asia’s travel retail sector. The company now plans to provide only quarterly guidance. Challenges in China and Travel Retail: Weak consumer sentiment in China and reduced demand in Asia travel retail, including low conversion rates in Hong Kong, led to a 5% drop in organic net sales, impacting overall performance. Summary: Estee Lauder’s sharp decline capitalized on bearish momentum, achieving all short trade targets quickly. The disappointing earnings, along with withdrawn guidance, underscore the headwinds Estee Lauder faces in a slowing global economy, particularly in Asia. This setup demonstrates the high-risk, high-reward potential for short-term trades in volatile stocks.
NYSE:ELShort
by ProfitsNinja
ZensarTec Ready to Rally! Waiting for Targets to Fire!Technical Analysis: ZensarTec on the 15-minute timeframe is poised for a long trade after a solid entry signal. The price is currently moving upward, following the support from the Risological Dotted Trendline, confirming the strength in momentum. Key Levels: Entry: 680.00 Stop Loss (SL): 658.20 Target 1 (TP1): 706.90 (Next target) Target 2 (TP2): 750.50 Target 3 (TP3): 794.05 Target 4 (TP4): 821.00 Observations: The price has recently shown signs of strength, bouncing off the Risological Dotted Trendline and gaining bullish momentum. With volume support, the price is likely to hit the initial target of TP1 soon, potentially leading to a cascade of target completions. ZensarTec is gearing up for an upward breakout as it tests its first target. Watch for TP1 to confirm and the possibility of higher targets being hit as bullish momentum builds. Stay tuned for a strong price movement ahead!
NSE:ZENSARTECHLong
by ProfitsNinja