3 Pro Tips for Managing Losing Trades,Risk, Emotions & StrategyManaging losing trades is an essential part of trading, whether you're involved in stocks, forex, or any other financial market, we have all heard traders say I haven't ever taken a loss before my strategy has 100% win rate blah blah ok really, even the best traders in the world take losses, as humans we naturally don't like to lose but in trading its a part of doing business. Here are three in-depth tips to help manage losing trades effectively:
### 1. ** Develop and Stick to a Risk Management Plan **
A risk management plan is your primary defence against significant losses. The key components include position sizing, setting stop-losses, and managing risk-reward ratios.
- ** Position Sizing **: Always ensure that you're not risking too much of your capital on a single trade. A common rule is to risk no more than 1-2% of your trading capital on any given trade. This way, even if you hit a streak of losses, your account can recover.
- ** Set Stop-Loss Orders **: A stop-loss is a predetermined point where you exit a trade to prevent further losses. This should be set based on your analysis and not emotions. Many traders use technical levels like support and resistance or a percentage-based rule (e.g., 2-5% below the entry price). However, it’s essential to place the stop at a level that aligns with market conditions, rather than placing it arbitrarily.
- ** Risk-Reward Ratio **: Aim for a risk-reward ratio that makes sense in the long term (e.g., 1:2 or 1:3), meaning that for every dollar you risk, you aim to gain two or three. This ensures that even with a lower win rate, your winning trades can outweigh your losses.
### 2. ** Detach from Emotional Biases **
Emotions like fear, greed, and frustration can cloud judgment, leading to poor decision-making during losing trades. Psychological discipline is crucial to protect against these common pitfalls.
- ** Avoid Chasing Losses **: After a losing trade, many traders try to "win back" what they lost quickly, often leading to overtrading or taking high-risk trades. This is called "revenge trading" and can exacerbate losses. Take a step back, assess the situation, and only enter new trades that meet your criteria.
- ** Accept Losses as Part of the Process **: Losing trades are inevitable. Successful traders view losses as an expense or cost of doing business. They understand that even the best trading strategies have losing streaks. Accepting this reality helps you avoid emotionally driven decisions.
- ** Maintain a Trading Journal **: Keeping track of both winning and losing trades can help you identify emotional patterns. Record why you took the trade, the results, and how you felt during the trade. This reflection can provide insight into emotional triggers and help you make more rational decisions in the future.
### 3. ** Adjust Your Strategy Based on Market Conditions **
Markets are dynamic and constantly changing. What works in one market environment may not work in another. Regularly review and adapt your trading strategy to current market conditions, particularly after losing trades.
- ** Assess Trade Context **: After each losing trade, conduct a post-trade analysis. Did the trade fail due to poor market conditions, execution errors, or a flaw in your strategy? Recognising these patterns can help you tweak your approach and avoid repeating the same mistakes.
- ** Diversify Your Strategy **: Relying too heavily on one trading approach or asset class can increase the likelihood of losses during unfavourable conditions. Consider diversifying your strategies (trend following, mean reversion, etc.) and the assets you trade. This spreads risk and can stabilise performance during market volatility.
- ** Cut Losses Early When Conditions Change **: If the market conditions that supported your trade change significantly, don’t hesitate to exit the trade, even before hitting your stop-loss. For example, news events or shifts in sentiment can render your trade idea invalid. Being flexible and willing to exit early when your initial reasoning no longer holds is essential.
By applying a robust risk management plan, controlling emotional biases, and regularly adapting your strategy to current market conditions, you can navigate and limit the damage of losing trades.
Stocks!
Fed Kicks Off Rate-Cutting Cycle. Why the Muted Market Reaction?Central bank bros met traders’ loftiest expectations with a half-point cut to interest rates on Wednesday. But is that too good to be true and maybe even a signal of some problems with the US economy and looming fears over at the Fed?
Trading today isn’t the same as trading yesterday. Even though prices don’t really confirm it — there wasn’t a super-duper rally in stocks. Maybe gold XAU/USD flickered a bit, but it was mostly froth . And here we are — the first day of trading in an environment with lower interest rates.
Jay Powell, head of the Federal Reserve, announced on Wednesday the first trim to borrowing costs in four years. The move ushers in a new normal where US interest rates USINTR are projected to continue moving lower from their 23-year high of 5.5%.
The easing cycle kicked off with a jumbo-sized 50 bps (basis points) slash. Surprisingly, the Fed went for the juicier, bolder and more aggressive option, leapfrogging the less interesting and exciting cut of 25 bps.
First reactions across the board showed investors were hyped to get what they wanted — the broad-based S&P 500 hit an intraday record .
Shortly after, however, stocks across the board pulled back and markets became anxious over the outlook as the realization kicked in. If the economy is doing fine, why go big on cuts from the get-go?
What’s more, central bankers are keen to ax interest rates by another half point in 2024, ultimately wrapping up the year with the benchmark rate sitting at 4.25% to 4.5%. Christmas may come early — the Fed meets twice more this year, on November 7 and December 18.
Better Safe Than Sorry?
A super-sized half-point cut could actually be a pre-emptive measure to alleviate a strained economy. But if inflation is now largely in the rearview mirror , what could the problem be? The other mandate. The Fed has a dual mandate of keeping prices in check (inflation) and upholding a stable labor market (jobs).
“We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress towards price stability,” Jay Powell said at the annual Jackson Hole gathering last month. And indeed, America’s jobs have seen a pronounced slowdown over the past few months. In July, markets added just 89,000 jobs (revised from an initial estimation of 114,000 ). In August, hiring had picked up modestly to 142,000 , but below expectations for 164,000.
Pros and Cons of Bumper Cut
Essentially, this big-boy cut of 50 bps is a double-edged sword. It cuts into borrowing costs, making money more affordable, potentially stimulating businesses to add more jobs and grow their gig. And it also prompts consumers to take on debt and get that house.
But on the flip side, a cut of that magnitude risks stirring up price pressures again. To get to full employment, the Fed faces the challenge of knocked inflation waking up from its slumber.
The size of the cut at this particular time doesn’t mean anything without the markets’ reaction to it. Apparently, investors were unimpressed and shrugged it off as no big deal. Looking ahead, however, the stakes are high because stocks are at all-time highs.
The S&P 500 touched a record, Big Tech is leading the charge into artificial intelligence and investors can’t own enough of the highflyers Nvidia NVDA , Meta META , Apple AAPL , etc.
The actual picture will become clear once markets figure out what the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle means and what to do about it.
ES, SPX - Santa Rally could trigger Cup & Handle patternA strong end to Q4
Window dressing by fund managers who were underweight equities
would trigger a cup handle pattern
breaking the trendline of the pattern is around 4600 on the #ES
I could also make an argument for HVF pattern we have a high 3 in place
A recession will no doubt rear it's head at some point ...
but a blow off top first to hand bears a beating is definitely a scenario I have shared before.
AMAZON SHORT FROM RESISTANCE|
✅AMAZON is set to retest a
Strong resistance level above at 191.75$
After trading in a local uptrend for some time
Which makes a bearish pullback a likely scenario
With the target being a local support below at 184.00$
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
META: Targeting $700 at least by the end of the year.META platforms is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 63.256, MACD = 7.090, ADX = 26.657) as it is making a healthy rebound on the 1D MA50. The 1 year Channel Up is posting recurring phases inside it and at the moment we are on similar grounds as early December 2023. Even the 1D RSI is identical between phases. Technically that suggests that the Channel Up can top on a HH after a +92% rise from the bottom but having the 0.618 Fibonacci level as a clear Rising Resistance, we will settle for a TP = 700.00 by the end of the year.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
$USINTR -Fed Cuts Rates by 50 BPS ECONOMICS:USINTR
- The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50bps to 4.75%-5% in light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks.
It is the first rate cut since March 2020 after holding it for more than a year at its highest level in two decades.
Will Feds decision of cutting 50bps tumble the markets in spite of fear for U.S and Global Markets indicating Recession brewing around the corner ?
Amazon (AMZN): Swing Trade & Chart Analysis UpdateTwo months ago, we anticipated a pullback to wave (2), and after a brief pump, we saw an immediate sell-off. The fascinating part? Amazon dropped 25% and reversed almost perfectly on the long-held trendline, which hasn’t been adjusted. It's incredible how simple technicals can sometimes work so well.
We've now pushed back into the $183-190 range. This could be a relief pump, likely short-lived. While we aren’t ruling out a rise above the current wave (1), we’re leaning toward a flat correction, as wave A was fast. If correct, we should turn soon and continue downward with a 5-wave structure into the 50-78.6% Fibonacci retracement target area.
No limit orders yet, but we're setting alerts to better time our entry. 🔥
Intel stock down 70%...opportunity?Good Morning Testosterone Traders,
Intel has been brought to my attention
Intel stock is down 70% from the pandemic era price of $67 per share , and now actively trading around $21 per share as of this posting.
I am confident to add Intel to my long-term portfolio.
Share your thoughts....
ORACLE Channel Up targeting $200.Oracle (ORCL) broke above its previous High last week and even though the current one is under a certain degree of volatility (reasonable due to the Fed), this confirmed the upward continuation of the trend.
Technically, the stock has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the September 2022 market bottom and after a prolonged test this year of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support, it has started the new Bullish Leg with the current phase being the last one.
An ideal 1W RSI symmetry suggests that we might be printing a sequence similar to March - June 2023, which peaked after a +110% rise from its bottom.
As a result, we remain bullish on Oracle, targeting $200.00 by the end of the year.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Meta (Facebook) Price AnalysisMeta’s price is approaching a key daily resistance level. If we get a breakout above this resistance, it could signal the start of a strong upward move, with potential to target the next r level.
Key points to watch:
Breakout above the daily resistance: This could lead to a continuation of the uptrend.
If the breakout happens, the price may target the next level on the chart.
It’s crucial to watch the price action closely to confirm the breakout!
AMD... Is it time to BUY?? YESSIR!!What are we looking at technically?
- The market is in an obvious uptrend
- A bullish BOS (break of structure)
- A retracement to the OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) fib levels between .705 - .786
- The bullish FVG is also aligned with the OTE levels for a confluence of support
- Price has formed a fractal low on the +FVG as price completed the External to Internal run on liquidity. Now comes the IRL back to the ERL move. The swing high at 227.30 is the target, as that is where the buy side liquidity is.
Fundamentally, the recent Amazon partnership is the latest move that will give AMD a huge boost. Not mention the AMD may become a buyer of INTEL's AI Fabric Chip.
Things are looking up for the organization.
What do you think?
It's a BUY for me.
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
JP MORGAN to rise at least +14% on this rally.We haven't looked into JP Morgan Chase (JPM) in almost 6 months (March 25, see chart below) and the excellent sell signal it gave us:
That was right at the top of its 2-year Channel Up. Right now we have the price rebounding an pricing a Higher Low on a shorter-term Channel Up since the March 25 High. Being still below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), gives time for an early buy.
The minimum % of a Bullish Leg within this Channel Up has been +14.07% so our Target is at $229.00 accordingly.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
SP500 Can Break To All-Time Highs After A Triangle ConsolidationBack in August the SP500 turned down for a deeper correction back to 5k area, at the same time when drop on all major indexes and some big cap names were pretty aggressive. However, there was a huge spike in VIX (not shown on this chart), so it must have been a lot of fear involved, which after initial selling shows extreme pessimism and that's when the market tends to stabilize, when least expected.
Well, what is most important is that we have seen some stabilization through most of the second part of August, but notice that the index did not reach new highs; it turned down at the start of the September, after moving up to 5655 area. So, we think that recent drop to 5400 area is actually subwave (C), ideally part of a complex correction, possibly a triangle in wave 4. Especially because of a recent turn up, that looks like a wave (D), so be aware of a slowdown in wave (E), which is still missing based on basic structure of a triangle pattern.
Anyhow, we think that sooner or later index will break to a new highs, ideally after FED rate decision.
$VRT Head and Shoulders Failure Signal Note: I am LONG NYSE:VRT
A Head and Shoulders failure pattern occurs when prices break below the neckline, suggesting a potential reversal to an up-trend; however, the move lower does not gain traction. Instead, prices drift higher until trading above the previously defined Right Shoulder high.
My long entry triggers when price > right shoulder high, which invalidates the bearish setup, and signals a continuation of the up-trend as trapped short sellers are forced to cover. Often times, this amplifies the momentum in the move higher.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Opinions are not positions, and vice versa.
Comprehensive Analysis of Chevron (CVX) - 16/09/2024Chevron (CVX) is an established energy company listed in the S&P 500 index.
Technical Analysis: I use moving averages as zones rather than lines. On the weekly chart, I applied the 200 EMA and 200 SMA, shading the area between them in orange to create a moving average zone. Currently, prices are finding support in this zone on the weekly chart.
Additionally, the $140 level acts as a demand zone and creates confluence.
On the daily chart, the ATR-based Keltner Channels are touching the lower band, indicating that downside volatility has reached its natural limits. There is also a bullish order block present.
On the 4-hour chart, I use the Inverse Fisher RSI. It filters out noise and provides fewer false signals compared to the standard RSI.
On the 1-hour chart, there is a noticeable decline in volume. Remember, without volume, it is difficult to break through support or resistance levels. From a technical standpoint, different timeframes are giving BUY signals.
Fundamental Analysis: The company has a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.81, which is considered normal for the sector. In the last quarter, Chevron reported total revenue of $49.66 billion and a net profit of $4.43 billion, resulting in a 9% profit margin, which meets my no-loss rule.
Chevron has strong return on equity, and growth continues. Its current ratio is 1.16, meaning its short-term assets exceed its liabilities, indicating financial stability.
The price-to-book ratio is 1.60, which is excellent for a company of this size.
Chevron's total assets stand at $260 billion, while total liabilities are around $100 billion, meaning the company's debt-to-assets ratio is 38.51%, which is highly acceptable.
The company’s annual dividend yield is 4.55%, providing a potential bonus for long-term investors.
With CVX trading near its 52-week low and showing positive signals, it could be a good choice for portfolio managers.
NVIDIA (NVDA): Our Next Move After Predicting the TopJust 14 days ago, we analyzed NVIDIA and concluded that we might see a small push upward followed by a pullback. We were correct, although the last small push didn't materialize. Still, we're pretty happy that we called the top on NVDA accurately, and perhaps some of you were able to capitalize on it. If so, that makes us even happier 😄
Since our last analysis, NVIDIA has fallen by 21%, bringing us into the area where we should be looking for long positions. We're about to do just that, even though it's risky. We're planning to enter a long position on NVIDIA, with our stop loss set below the end of Wave (4) for invalidation. We don't have a specific target set for NVDA, and we'll be monitoring it closely. Given the risk involved, we won't be over-leveraging here.
Let's see if we can get it right again!
Tesla (TSLA) Resistance Breakout and Next Target
Current Resistance Level: Tesla’s stock (TSLA) is currently testing a key resistance level.
Breakout Scenario: If TSLA breaks above this resistance, it could indicate a bullish breakout, suggesting more upside potential.
Next Resistance Target: Once the breakout is confirmed, the price could aim for the next resistance level as the target.
Confirmation: Wait for Tesla to close above the resistance with strong buying volume. Look for bullish candlestick patterns to confirm the breakout.
Risk Management: Place a stop-loss just below the new support level (the previous resistance) to manage the risk of a false breakout or price reversal.
NVIDIA Wave Count on the 4-Hour Timeframe
🔥 The Uptrend is Approaching
✨ It appears that the stock has completed wave (3), followed by a corrective pattern 🔀 in the form of a triangle 🔼 currently forming to represent wave (4). The only remaining wave to complete this pattern is wave E 🤌.
✨ To confirm the end of wave (4) and the beginning of wave 1 within wave (5), the following conditions must be met:
- Completion of all the ABCDE sub-waves of the triangle pattern.
- A breakout above the key level related to wave E.
Once these conditions are met, the uptrend is expected to continue.
However, If Wave D falls short of the trendline, it could indicate that the market is losing momentum and the triangle pattern may be contracting more than expected.
In short, while it’s ideal for Wave D to touch the trendline, minor deviations can still occur without completely invalidating the pattern, but they should be carefully monitored for potential changes in the overall wave structure.
SWING IDEA - PRISM JOHNSONPrism Johnson , a key player in the building materials sector, is showing promising technical indicators that suggest a potential swing trade opportunity.
Reasons are listed below:
Break of Cup and Handle Pattern : The stock has broken out of a cup and handle pattern, which is a bullish continuation signal, indicating the potential for further upside movement.
Support at Crucial Zone of 150-160 : The stock is taking strong support around the 150-160 zone, a critical area that has previously acted as a strong support level.
Bullish Engulfing on Weekly Timeframe : A bullish engulfing candle on the weekly chart adds to the bullish sentiment, signaling a strong reversal from the support zone.
Double Bottom Pattern on Weekly : The formation of a double bottom pattern on the weekly timeframe further strengthens the bullish case, indicating a potential reversal from a major support area.
50 EMA Support on Weekly Timeframe : The stock is currently supported by the 50 EMA on the weekly chart, indicating that the long-term trend is intact.
Target - 199 // 220 // 250
Stoploss - weekly close below 142
DISCLAIMER -
Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services.
@visionary.growth.insights
HFCL Ltd. Resistance Rejection Sell Setup - 5:1 Risk-Reward Rati
Description:
This setup on HFCL Ltd. demonstrates a resistance rejection pattern with a focus on high-probability sell trades. The steps in this trade idea are as follows:
Candle Identification: We start by identifying a candle that has closed above the all-time high.
Candle Confirmation: The next two candles should close below each other, confirming a resistance level.
Resistance Confirmation: The continued closing of candles below resistance indicates strength in the rejection of this level.
Sell Execution: A sell trade is initiated as per the strategy, with a stop-loss placed at 160.00 and a risk-reward ratio of 5:1.
The target for this trade is set at ₹139, and the stop-loss is placed at ₹160. This setup provides a clear framework for executing trades with proper risk management.