Dow30 - US30 Faces DownturnBLACKBULL:US30 has returned to a crucial resistance zone, which aligns with a bearish technical setup. After the recent decline, this move back to the resistance suggests that a further drop may be imminent, especially if the index fails to break above this zone. The pattern indicates that TVC:DJI could start its downward trend again following a retest of this level, where sellers are likely to re-enter the market.
Fundamentally, the rising unemployment claims in the U.S. have heightened fears of a recession. With more individuals out of work, consumer spending could slow down, which negatively impacts corporate earnings and the broader economy. This situation could exert additional downward pressure on the Dow Jones, making the possibility of a significant decline more likely as investors brace for potential economic contraction.
Stocks!
PayPal (PYPL): Time to Secure Profits After Hitting New HighsWe’ve noticed that PayPal isn’t getting much attention lately, but since our entry, the stock has surged to a new high, the highest since April 2024. However, amidst the potential hype surrounding PayPal, we must remain focused and closely monitor the chart.
The gap from August 2023 has now fully closed, and the RSI is beginning to look concerning. In response, we’ve decided to take some profits off the table and raise our stop-loss to just below the triple EQL at around $56.88.
With this new stop-loss and the profits we've secured, we’re protected from potential downturns but still positioned to look for another entry in PayPal.
Stay tuned for updates on the next possible setup. ✅
NVIDIA (NVDA): Wave 1 Nearly Complete – New Entry Opportunity?After a break, we’re taking another look at NVIDIA, which is now around $100 — which sounds like a much more attractive level compared to $1100. But it isn't, as in the meantime we witnessed a stock split. We still see more upside for NVIDIA as we believe we are in Wave (5) of the current cycle, if our count is correct.
Zooming in, the past surge doesn't need much commentary as it was mostly upward movement without significant corrections. Now, it looks like we’re getting into the intra-wave structure. We expect Wave 1 to finish after one last leg up to complete the five-wave cycle for Wave 1.
Afterward, we could look for entry points at the end of Wave 2. If this scenario plays out with the bearish divergence on the RSI, we will update you on how we plan to position ourselves.
Dell (DELL): About the wild ride - what's next after a 31% pump?No way Dell follows the analysis like this for months 😳 We told you about the wave B at the top, the wave ((ii)) a little lower, and our must-hold zone was just barely tagged—and now it’s pumped 31%...
Incredibly accurate, but we didn't enter as this stock is too volatile for us personally. Still, we’re going to monitor it from time to time for you because it remains highly interesting.
After the latest surge, we’re expecting a pullback for wave ((ii)). The best case for this pullback would be the golden pocket between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels.
That said, this stock is very volatile, and it could pump even more before coming down to make this essential pullback.
AMAZON Only a break above the 1D MA50 remains. $240 on sight.Amazon Inc. (AMZN) spent the previous 2 weeks on a very strong recovery of the losses sustained in July - August, in fact those have been the strongest 2-week candles since October 23 - 30 2023.
That was the previous bottom of the 2.5 year Channel Up on its Higher Lows trend-line. Even though the stock broke below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in more than 1 year (May 2023), it managed to hold the long term Support of the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
As this 1W chart shows, the Higher Lows of this pattern are periodic and cyclical and you can see that clearly with the use of the Sine Waves (also evident on the 1W RSI, the green circle bottoms below its MA). Every time the price broke above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) following such a Low (3 times) it approached the top of the Channel Up.
The first Bullish Leg peaked at +79%, the second at +69%. If this is a progressive sequence, then the third (current) Bullish Leg could be -10% less than the last, i.e. +59%. As a result, the 1D MA50 (which applied high selling pressure this week), is the final Resistance and bullish break-out confirmation the price technically needs before it targets $240.00 (+59% rise).
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BROADCOM The next expansion wave to $285 has begun.Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) has already completed 2 weeks of gains that essentially recovered the majority of the July-led correction. This rebounded not only largely maintained the long-term Channel Up pattern that started on the October 2022 market bottom but also managed to keep the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) intact.
This is an extremely bullish long-term combination as it should technically start the stocks 3rd long-term expansion wave as illustrated on today's 1W chart. As you can see the previous two peaked at +121% and +133% respectively. As a result our new long-term Target as of now is $285.00 (+121% from the recent bottom).
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Preparing For A Potential Double-Top HereTraders,
As you all know, the SPY has been moving EXACTLY as anticipated by me the last two years. And that worries me. Don't get me wrong, I have thoroughly enjoy the profits that have come with getting it right, but what we have to be careful about when doing so well is over-confidence. Because if we don't take a couple of steps back and say to ourselves, "I could get it wrong this time", then we could likely get it wrong. The market loves to humble cocky traders. And that is why I have sold half of my longs once again ...just in case I could be wrong.
So, you can all read my previous posts and calls on the SPY, but for new readers, let me just catch you up with a brief summary to give you some context.
About 2 years ago, after the market had dropped and many investors thought it would continue down, I came under the persuasion that it would soon reverse. Though, I am a rookie when it comes to Elliot Wave, I had noticed some other contrarian traders and chartists had begun to explain from a fundamental basis why it would move up soon. These same investors began plotting a likely blow-off top scenario based on fundamentals, market psychology, and Elliot Wave theory. It made sense to me but I was hesitant to go full in based on this information alone.
I began reading more about market fundamentals and psychology and learned that most of what I read actually supported the idea of a blow-off top. Then I spotted another pattern on the daily chart (an inverse head and shoulders pattern) which strengthened the theory even more. This pattern gave me my SPY target of 570. You can still see that Previous Target outlined here on my chart. We nearly reached that target. Missed it by a few dollars. It was there that I sold half. And right on time. The Japanese carry trade flash crashed the markets and down we went. As we were nearing the 200 DMA, I spotted a new bullish pattern on the weekly chart. This was a Cup and Handle. I bought back in near the bottom recognizing that this blow-off top was probably not at an end ...yet.
Fast forward to today.
We are once again nearing my Previous Target of SPY 570 and though we could move even higher (and I honestly believe we will), I want to prepare for a scenario where I could be wrong. You can see from the chart here that we may also be forming a bearish double-top or M-Pattern. If this is the case, it is wise for me to prepare for another drop soon. Thus, I have once again, sold half. Should the M-Pattern play out, I will likely buy back in around the 200 DMA (wherever this happens to be at the time) because I still believe that Cup and Handle pattern on the 2-week chart will play out and that the blow-off top will not end until we reach 650-700 on the SPY.
Obviously, this forcast could change based upon significant geo-political/global events. But for now, this is how I see it going.
Scenario 2: If we do not drop and that M-Pattern becomes invalidated. I will also buy back in should we exceed my previous target on the chart. In either case, updates will follow.
ELI LILLY Recovered all losses from its High! What's next?Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) posted a miraculous bullish reversal in the past 2 weeks, recovering yesterday all of the losses of the brutal correction since its July 15 All Time High. Having rebounded on its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) while the 1D RSI touched the 30.00 oversold barrier for the first time since February 28 2023, we can claim that LLY's Channel Up now sets eyes for its next Higher High.
This pattern is best illustrated with the use of the Fibonacci Channel levels. After initially holding the 1.0 Fib as Resistance, the 'ceiling' is now the 1.5 Fib extension, basically has been since September 12 2023.
The interesting parameter of this pattern is that every approximately +35.00 to +40.00% rise, the price pulls back or turns sideways (red arc pattern) until it eventually hits the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As the stock completes a +35% rise from the bottom, a little above the 1000 mark, we expect it to turn sideways at best. The target after that is $1200, exactly on the 1.0 Fibonacci level, which is still a modest one, considering that the ceiling is now the 1.5 Fib extension, as discussed above.
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MICROSOFT Targeting $500 before the end of the year.Microsoft (MSFT) has made a new long-term bottom and recovered almost all of August's losses. That bottom is technically the Higher Low of the 20-month Channel Up that started in January 2023.
The price is currently consolidating below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and if broken, it will confirm the new Bullish Leg. In the previous (2) Bullish Legs of this Channel Up, the price tends to re-test the 1D MA50/100 cluster to confirm it as the new long-term Support after the break-out, so expect that to take place at some point.
Having though formed a new 1D MACD Bullish Cross, we can assume that this is already a safe level to buy for the long-term, as every Bullish Cross below 0.0 has technically been a confirmed buy level. Our Target for the end of the year is $500, which is still technically a 'modest' one as it is considerably below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which priced the March Higher High.
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El Dorado Gold (EGO) AnalysisCompany Overview:
El Dorado Gold, a significant player in the gold mining sector, has shown strong performance in Q1 2023. The company's operations span various regions, with a strategic focus on optimizing production and controlling costs, which has led to impressive financial results and a rising stock price.
Key Highlights:
Production Surge: EGO reported a 21% increase in gold production during Q1 2023, a significant boost that reflects the company's operational efficiency and resource management.
Cost Management: The company successfully lowered its all-in sustaining costs (AISC) to $1,184 per ounce, enhancing profitability and providing a stronger buffer against potential market volatility in gold prices.
Strategic Deal: El Dorado Gold struck a deal with TRU Precious Metals, acquiring an 80% stake in the Golden Rose gold-copper project in Newfoundland, Canada. This acquisition positions EGO to further increase production and diversify its asset base, potentially driving long-term growth.
Stock Performance: The company's strong operational performance and strategic acquisitions have positively impacted its stock price, signaling investor confidence and optimism about its future prospects.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on NYSE:EGO above the $14.50-$15.00 range.
Upside Potential: With an upside target of $21.00-$22.00, El Dorado Gold presents a solid investment opportunity, underpinned by strong production growth, effective cost management, and strategic expansion.
🏅 El Dorado Gold—striking gold and delivering value! #EGO #GoldMining 💰✨
Will The SPY Hit 650-700?Just an update on progress in the markets. The dollar has hit my support level already. Because of the quick drop, I expect it to continue to drop even further, though we may get a bit of a bounce first. The Vix is back down and inside of our long-standing sideways channel. And gold has hit its target to the upside.
Plus we'll talk about where the SPY (and U.S. Stock market) is going. That section of the video begins around 07:30 if you want to skip right to the title content of the video. And towards the end of the video, we'll of course discuss where I think Bitcoin is still going before the end of the year and also, where I think it will end up by the end of next year.
These are longer-term targets but they are not solely predicated upon technical analysis. Though the technicals do help support my claims, there is also some fundamental rationale for why I believe the markets remain so volatile, but overall, they will continue their journey upwards.
Chevron (CVX): Approaching a Critical Support ZoneIt's been a while since we last analyzed CVX, but we’re now approaching a very important area on the chart. You might wonder why we’re focusing on the weekly chart instead of the daily. The reason is simple: sometimes you need to zoom out to get a clearer perspective, and in this case, the weekly chart holds far more significance than the daily. There’s no point in searching for entries on the daily when the more crucial entry level on the weekly is just below.
We’re looking to find support at the HVN POC (High Volume Node Point of Control) at $117, which would also serve as a retest after the last breakout in 2022. We’re still determining the best way to place a limit order at this level, but for now, we’re waiting on the sidelines with alerts set and a light game plan ready.
Tesla’s 32% Plunge: A Critical Analysis and What’s Ahead (READ)By reviewing the #Tesla stock chart on the weekly (logarithmic) timeframe, we can see that the price started a significant decline from the $270 level, just as we anticipated, dropping by over 32% down to $180. At the time of this analysis, no one expected such a steep decline in Tesla's stock, as most were predicting a rise above $300 or even $400. However, the price disregarded the majority’s opinion and followed its own course, resulting in this sharp drop. Currently, the price is around $216, and I expect an initial rise to $233. After that, we'll need to watch how the price reacts to this critical supply zone. This analysis will be updated accordingly.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
The Main Analysis :
((2+4+7+13+15+18+26+36+38+69+87+101+183+209+1000+1002+1000000000+1000000001+ 1000000853)^♾️*69) + 1 !
$VIX Could Experience a Sharp Decline on MondayWith reports that Mideast mediators are advancing towards a cease-fire deal, the TVC:VIX could experience a sharp decline on Monday. 📉 This reduction in volatility might lead to increased market stability and potential gains across equities. How are you positioning your portfolio in response to these developments? #VIX #MarketVolatility #Equities #InvestmentStrategy #GeopoliticalRisk
TSLA / TESLATSLA (Tesla, Inc.) Stock Analysis:
Key Dates and Potential Market Movements:
1. August 23, 2024 - Potential Upside:
• Scenario: The chart indicates a potential bullish movement around late August 2024. This could be driven by positive earnings reports, advancements in Tesla’s technology, or an increase in market optimism around Tesla’s leadership in the EV market.
• Impact on Price: We might see a short-term rally in Tesla’s stock price, pushing it towards previous highs around the $270 mark.
2. October 15, 2024 - Potential Downside:
• Scenario: As we approach mid-October 2024, the chart suggests a potential bearish phase. This could be due to broader market corrections, profit-taking by investors, or any negative news related to supply chain disruptions or increased competition in the EV market.
• Impact on Price: Tesla’s stock could see a pullback, potentially testing support levels around $215 or even lower.
3. February 19, 2025 - Recovery Phase:
• Scenario: By early 2025, the chart indicates a recovery phase, possibly due to strong Q4 2024 earnings, the introduction of new Tesla models, or significant advancements in battery technology.
• Impact on Price: This period might mark the beginning of a new bullish trend, with Tesla’s stock price climbing back towards the $250-$300 range.
4. May 9, 2025 - Consolidation or Continued Growth:
• Scenario: The market could enter a consolidation phase, where the stock trades within a range, or Tesla could continue its growth trajectory depending on the broader economic conditions and Tesla’s performance.
• Impact on Price: If the market conditions are favorable, Tesla might break out to new highs; otherwise, we could see sideways movement in the $250-$300 range.
5. September 4, 2025 - Potential Market Shift:
• Scenario: As we approach late 2025, the chart suggests another critical phase, potentially influenced by macroeconomic factors, such as changes in interest rates or shifts in consumer demand for EVs.
• Impact on Price: This could lead to either a breakout to new highs or a retest of lower support levels, depending on the prevailing market sentiment.
6. December 4, 2025 - Year-End Rally:
• Scenario: The end of 2025 could see a year-end rally, driven by strong sales numbers, holiday season demand, or favorable policy decisions regarding EV subsidies.
• Impact on Price: Tesla’s stock might experience a strong rally, potentially setting new highs or revisiting levels around $300.
Considerations for Investors:
• Technological Advancements: Tesla’s continued innovation in battery technology, autonomous driving, and energy solutions could be key drivers of its stock price.
• Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment around the EV market and broader technology sector will play a crucial role in Tesla’s stock movements.
• Geopolitical and Economic Factors: Changes in global trade policies, supply chain disruptions, and shifts in consumer demand could impact Tesla’s performance.
Given the potential market shifts and Tesla’s leadership in the EV space, are you considering adding Tesla to your portfolio? How do you see Tesla’s position evolving as we approach key market dates in 2024 and 2025?
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 16, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index demonstrated significant resiliency during this week's trading session, surpassing the Inner Interim Index Rally 5443 target. Following a springy rebound, the current market price action is positioned below the newly established significant Mean Res 5564. Anticipated interim downward pressure toward the Mean Support at 5445 is probable before the index resumes its upward trajectory. The prevailing price action indicates a sustained uptrend towards the Inner Interim Index Rally at 5666, with the achieved targets expected to exert considerable downward pressure.
SMCI rebounding on its 2-year Support Zone. $2000 next stop.Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) is on its strongest 1W green candle since May 22 2023, recovering the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which was broken last week amidst the general market panic on a potential economic slowdown.
This rebound happens to take place just inside the 2-year Higher Lows Zone that started back in July 2022. The ultimate Support, the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) is exactly on that Zone's bottom and as long as it holds, we will stay bullish on SMCI long-term. Even the 1W RSI marginally broke below its 2-year Support Zone, but immediately recovered it.
As a result, we expect the new Bullish Leg (green Channel Up) to start. Every single one of the previous Legs of this 2-year pattern has been higher than the previous, so since the last rally completed a +344.40% rise, we expect at least a repeat of this. Our long-term Target is $2000.
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Palo Alto (PANW): A Golden Pocket OpportunityPalo Alto's chart is looking particularly promising in a market where many stocks seem to be constantly soaring. These defined ranges present a strong trading opportunity, which we're closely monitoring. It appears that Palo Alto has completed its Wave (3) and is now in the midst of Wave (4). We anticipate that Wave (4) will conclude within the 38.2% to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, providing a potential entry point.
The golden pocket around the 61.8% level is particularly intriguing, though we haven't highlighted the 50% retracement as it doesn’t align with key support levels. We see two potential scenarios for Palo Alto: a correction to the 38.2% level, meeting the support zone around $249, or a deeper retracement into the broader support area and golden pocket between $191 and $160.
If we take a long position at the first support zone, we would likely move the stop loss quickly to secure the position, with plans to add to our position if the price drops further into the lower support range. For now, we're waiting on the sidelines, keeping a close watch on the upcoming earnings call. If it brings any significant news, we’ll outline our strategy for PANW.