Stocks!
Nasdaq - This Is Just The Beginning!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) is preparing a major rally going into 2025:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
As mentioned in all of my previous analysis, the Nasdaq is rallying but despite the recent strong move, there is still a lot more room towards the upside. With the channel breakout happening over the past couple of months, it is quite likely that we will see a rally of +50% during 2025.
Levels to watch: $26.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
RIVIAN Is this EV maker dead??Rivian is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.757, MACD = -0.170, ADX = 26.255) as it is extendint today yesterday's massive rejection on the 1D MA200. The long term pattern is a Channel Down and we are on the latest bearish wave and about to form a 1D MACD Bearish Cross. The two previous bearish waves of the pattern reached the 1.618 and 2.0 Fibonacci extension respectively, so a progressive lower low is identified there potentially. In any event, we expect at least the 2.0 Fibonacci level to be tested (TP = 8.65).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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SWING IDEA - JIO FINANCIAL SERVICESJio Financial Services , an emerging force in the financial sector, exhibits signs of a potential upward move, presenting a swing trading opportunity.
Reasons are listed below :
Strong Support Zone at 300 : This level has proven to be a strong support, enhancing the likelihood of a bounce.
Bullish Hammer on Weekly Timeframe : A bullish hammer candlestick pattern indicates potential reversal and buyer interest at lower levels.
0.5 Fibonacci Support : The price is aligned with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting that it could act as a springboard for further upward movement.
50 EMA Support on Weekly Timeframe : Trading above the 50 EMA adds to the bullish outlook and provides an additional layer of support.
Target - 360 // 385
Stoploss - weekly close below 295
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Disney (DIS): Strong Recovery After Oversold LevelsWhat a pity! Back in late June, we anticipated that Disney would find its support at a maximum of $89, and it ended up bottoming out at $84 – perfectly aligned with our prediction ✅. Since then, the stock has surged nearly 37%, driven by today’s earnings report. This looks like a very strong bottom for NYSE:DIS , as it was deeply oversold and perfectly touched the 88.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
The surge today was fueled by robust results for its fiscal fourth quarter, showing better-than-expected profits in both streaming and domestic theme parks — Disney’s two most critical business units. Additionally, Disney broke tradition by offering detailed earnings projections for the next two years, emphasizing its forward-looking confidence. With annual revenue of $91.4 billion, Disney achieved a new record, showcasing its growth momentum.
With today’s move, NYSE:DIS closed the remaining gap between $108-$111. However, the close doesn’t look very promising on the 3D chart, and if Disney ends up below this range, it could signal a pullback. A retest of $104-$97 seems likely and could provide the necessary momentum to fully reclaim this resistance zone.
We will continue to monitor the situation closely and will update if key levels are breached.
BTCUSD | Trade idea
BTCUSD Performance: BTCUSD pulled back after reaching a minor top around $65,000, hitting a high of $65,103 and currently trading around $62,500.
Rate Cut Probability: The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September increased to 71.50% from 71% a week ago (CME Fed watch tool).
BTC ETF Inflows: BTC ETF saw an inflow of $202.51 million, with BlackRock attracting $224 million.
US Markets: NASDAQ, which has a negative correlation with BTC, is bearish but neutral for BTC. NASDAQ is trading weak ahead of Nvidia earnings; a close above 20,000 could push it to 20,500.
Cisco (CSCO): Waiting for an entry after earningsCisco NASDAQ:CSCO recently reported its Q1 earnings, and the results exceeded expectations. With a reported revenue of $13.841 billion versus the estimated $13.775 billion, and earnings per share (EPS) coming in at $0.91 against an expected $0.872, the company delivered a positive surprise. This marks the ninth consecutive quarter where Cisco has beaten revenue estimates.
On the technical side, the previously bearish outlook has been invalidated. We have updated our chart, adjusting the wave (4) bottom to align with the lower trend channel. After a remarkable 33% rally in just 100 days, the stock is due for a “healthy” pullback, potentially targeting the range high of $52-$48. However, this will heavily depend on further market reactions to the earnings report.
From a broader perspective, we are now targeting a push towards or even above the upper trend channel for the wave 3 and subsequently the wave (5). However, these moves are long-term prospects and will take time to materialize.
The focus remains on recurring revenue, which has grown significantly year-over-year, reaching $29.6 billion in the fourth quarter. While recurring revenue from subscriptions is a bullish factor, potential concerns regarding company spending in the second half of 2024 need to be monitored.
We are closely observing the lower time frame for potential entry opportunities, keeping an eye on the anticipated pullback to confirm healthy growth momentum.
TESLA Will it turn the former 2-year Resistance into Support?Tesla (TSLA) fulfilled our August 15 buy signal (see chart below) as after the minor pull-back we expected, it rose aggressively on its new Bullish Leg of the 2-year Channel Up and came close to a new Higher High:
The correction of the past 4 days may be one last great short-term buy opportunity as it hit yesterday the former Resistance Zone of July 2022. If it holds, it will turn into its new technical Support Zone, thus will be an additional buy for out $380.00 Target.
Beyond that we need to see the ATH break before formulating a new strategic plan on the pattern that will emerge.
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The Big Exit | How One Auditor Walked Away from Super MicroThe Governance Shortfall: Inside Super Micro’s Auditor Crisis
On Wednesday, shares of the high performance server and storage solutions provider faced renewed selling pressure after the unexpected resignation of its audit firm, Ernst & Young LLP(EY)
In July 2024, EY alerted the Audit Committee about several concerns related to governance, transparency, internal controls, and the risk of delayed filing of the company's annual report. In response, the Board formed an independent Special Committee to investigate these matters, engaging Cooley LLP and forensic accounting firm Secretariat Advisors, LLC. Although EY and the Board received preliminary updates on the investigation, the final conclusions have not yet been shared.
The ongoing review raised doubts for EY regarding the company’s adherence to the COSO Framework principles for internal controls. EY questioned the company’s commitment to integrity, the independence of the Audit Committee, and the reliability of management’s and the Audit Committee's representations.
In its resignation letter, EY expressed its inability to rely on these representations or be associated with the company's financial statements, citing legal and professional obligations.
Despite the developments, Super Micro has indicated no expected changes to previously issued financial statements. The company plans to provide a Q1/FY2025 business update next week. However, it’s surprising that management didn’t include preliminary Q1 results in Wednesday's announcement, which could have mitigated the negative impact on its stock.
Super Micro is nearing a Nasdaq deadline to either regain compliance with listing requirements or submit a plan. With the auditor’s unexpected departure, it may be difficult for the company to present a viable plan, raising the risk of a near-term delisting.
This resignation comes at a critical time for Super Micro, as its rapid growth requires substantial working capital. Based on management’s projections, FY2025 cash needs could reach up to $3 billion, likely necessitating additional capital early next year. However, raising funds without audited financials could be challenging, potentially forcing Super Micro to relinquish market share to competitors like Dell Technologies or Hewlett Packard Enterprise.
In my view, EY’s departure increases the likelihood of a prolonged accounting review, which could hinder Super Micro’s ability to secure funding for anticipated growth. Therefore, it is crucial for the company to report strong preliminary Q1/FY2025 results and present a positive outlook next week.
Super Micro Computer’s troubles continue, as its auditor resigned due to concerns over management’s integrity and the Audit Committee's independence. This situation makes it unlikely for the company to achieve compliance with Nasdaq requirements soon, raising the potential for a near-term delisting.
With a need to re-enter the capital markets in early 2025, audited financials remain essential. A failure to secure funding could result in significant market share loss to major competitors like Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise.
Given these challenges, the increased risk of prolonged financial review, and a likely near-term delisting, I am reaffirming my "Sell" rating on Super Micro Computer's common shares.
Utilities vs. Uranium: Is the Nuclear Sector Gaining Momentum?Introduction:
Utilities AMEX:XLU have demonstrated strong performance over the past year, often signaling a "risk-off" market environment where investors seek safety. However, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on market dynamics may be challenging this traditional narrative. Despite the evolving landscape, caution is warranted against assuming that "this time is different." A new factor to watch is the growing influence of the nuclear sector, particularly uranium stocks AMEX:URA .
Analysis:
Risk-Off Sentiment vs. New Trends: While utilities' strong performance typically signals a defensive market stance, the increasing focus on nuclear energy is drawing investor interest toward uranium stocks. The shift reflects a potential change in how market participants view traditional safe havens.
URA-to-XLU Ratio: The upward trend in the URA-to-XLU ratio over recent years indicates a growing preference for uranium stocks over traditional utilities. Even after a significant selloff earlier this year, the ratio formed a higher low, signaling resilience and maintaining its long-term uptrend.
Momentum Shift: The key focus now is whether this ratio can make a new high. If the URA-to-XLU ratio breaks above its previous peak, it would suggest strengthening momentum in the nuclear sector, indicating that this trend could have staying power and possibly reflect a shift in market preferences.
Conclusion:
As the market balances between traditional risk-off sectors like utilities and emerging trends in nuclear energy, the URA-to-XLU ratio serves as a critical indicator of shifting investor sentiment. A new high in this ratio would suggest that the nuclear sector's momentum is strengthening, with uranium stocks potentially leading the way. Do you believe this trend will continue? Share your insights below!
Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the URA-to-XLU ratio, the higher low formation, and potential breakout targets)
Tags: #Utilities #Uranium #NuclearEnergy #XLU #URA #MarketTrends #TechnicalAnalysis
Rising Inflation Expectations: TIP vs. IEFIntroduction:
With the election concluded, market focus has shifted to bond markets, where recent developments hint at rising inflation expectations. Despite President Trump's campaign emphasis on price control, indicators suggest a shift toward higher inflation. A key metric to monitor is the ratio between Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities AMEX:TIP and 7-10 Year Treasuries $IEF. When (TIP) outperforms NASDAQ:IEF , it signals increasing inflation expectations; conversely, when IEF outperforms, it suggests a decline in inflation expectations.
Analysis:
Inflation Expectations: The TIP-to-IEF ratio is a reliable gauge of the market's inflation outlook. A rising ratio indicates growing inflation concerns, as investors favor TIPs for their inflation protection over traditional Treasuries.
Technical Pattern: Currently, the TIP-to-IEF ratio is breaking out of a descending triangle formation, a continuation pattern that signals the potential for higher inflation expectations. This breakout aligns with a recent surge in interest rates, reflecting heightened inflation concerns in the bond market.
Market Implications: This breakout could be the early stage of a sustained trend toward higher inflation, raising questions about whether the recent interest rate surge is a temporary fluctuation or the beginning of a longer-term shift.
Conclusion:
The bond market is sending signals of rising inflation expectations, as indicated by the breakout in the TIP-to-IEF ratio. This could mark the start of a new phase in the inflation cycle, with potential implications for interest rates and broader market sentiment. Traders should closely monitor this ratio to assess the longevity of the current trend. Do you think inflation expectations are set to rise further? Share your thoughts below!
Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the TIP-to-IEF ratio, the descending triangle formation, and breakout targets)
Tags: #Inflation #Bonds #Treasuries #TIP #IEF #InterestRates #TechnicalAnalysis
BABA BUY Possibility Alibaba is showing potential for a bullish move as its earnings report approaches. Positive earnings could drive a breakout, especially with momentum building in areas like cloud growth. A Trump victory might boost investor confidence, potentially easing U.S.-China tensions, which could benefit BABA’s stock. With the stock near a support level, this could be a prime entry point if earnings impress.
This setup has strong potential for upside! 📈
BABA BUY Possibility Alibaba is showing potential for a bullish move as its earnings report approaches. Positive earnings could drive a breakout, especially with momentum building in areas like cloud growth. A Trump victory might boost investor confidence, potentially easing U.S.-China tensions, which could benefit BABA’s stock. With the stock near a support level, this could be a prime entry point if earnings impress.
This setup has strong potential for upside! 📈
Amd - Retest, Reversal And A +100% Rally!Amd ( NASDAQ:AMD ) will soon retest massive previous support:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After Amd perfectly retested the upper channel resistance about half a year ago, we saw a beautiful rejection and already a retest of the crucial horizontal support. Now, Amd is once again coming back to retest this support and another bullish reversal is extremely likely.
Levels to watch: $130, $260
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Apple - A Correction Is Actually Inevitable!Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) is preparing for a minor cycle correction:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After creating five consecutive bullish breaks and retests of the previous all time high, it seems like Apple is one of these stocks which is perfectly following technical analysis. Considering that and the current rising channel pattern, it is quite likely that we will now see a short term correction.
Levels to watch: $190, $240
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
COINBASE Strong buy signal on Inverted Head and ShouldersCoinbase / COIN has formed an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern, bottoming at 274.30.
The bullish signal is confirmed as the price not only crossed over the Falling Resistance of the downtrend that started yesterday, but also above the 5minute MA50.
The standard target of such pattern is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension.
Buy and target 306.00.
Previous chart:
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