Stocks
Undervalued, Oversold, Overlooked: MRK Hits The Key Zone!Hi all,
Merck & Co. (MRK) is a global pharmaceutical titan and is currently trading near its 52-week low of ~$79. Anchored by Keytruda’s 7% YoY revenue growth, a stable ~4% dividend yield, and an average fair value estimate of $156.59 (98% upside), MRK appears significantly undervalued.
Analysts forecast a 12-month price target of $118.05, implying 49% upside, supported by a strong pipeline and solid financials. While tariff concerns and Keytruda’s 2028 patent expiration pose risks.
Technically speaking, MRK has fallen 43% from its all-time high and has reached the strongest area on the chart—a key support zone offering a compelling opportunity to build mid- or long-term positions. This critical area is defined by multiple technical factors, creating a high-probability setup for a potential reversal:
Role Reversal Support: A broad, well-established resistance zone, aged like fine wine, has now flipped to act as support. This classic role reversal provides significant confluence to the setup.
Textbook Trendline: A perfectly respected trendline, straight out of technical analysis textbooks, has consistently held. The price has approached this trendline from higher highs, underscoring its strength as a key support level.
50% Retracement Level: A critical level often watched for potential reversals.
Monthly EMA200 Confluence: The 200-period exponential moving average on the monthly chart adds further strength to this area, reinforcing its technical significance.
Strategic Guidance:
This setup requires strong conviction. If you’re not prepared to buy in the lower gray areas of this support zone (marked on the chart), do not initiate a position.
In today’s market sentiment, your fundamental research must be robust, and technical analysis allows you to get that much confidence to make it happen!
Ask yourself: If the price falls further into the gray zones, am I willing to buy more? If your answer is yes, the current price presents a strong entry point for mid- to long-term positions.
If the answer is no—if you’re unsure about buying at lower levels or find yourself questioning what to do if prices drop further—refrain from starting a position. In volatile markets, clarity and discipline are essential. Only enter if your strategy is clear and your conviction matches the opportunity!
Good luck,
Vaido
Celsius Holdings (CELH) – Fueling the Wellness Energy RevolutionCompany Snapshot:
Celsius NASDAQ:CELH is a top-tier functional beverage brand, capitalizing on the explosive growth of health-conscious energy drinks. Known for its clean-label, metabolism-boosting formulas, CELH is a favorite among fitness enthusiasts and wellness-driven consumers.
Key Catalysts:
Strategic Acquisition – Alani Nu 🎯
Expands CELH’s reach into the women-centric energy drink market
Enhances brand diversity and strengthens product portfolio
Accelerates penetration into lifestyle & wellness channels
PepsiCo Distribution Partnership 📦
Unlocks massive scale and global shelf visibility
Boosts velocity in convenience, grocery, and fitness retail
Strategic alignment continues to fuel international expansion
Clean Energy Demand on the Rise 🌱
Consumers are actively shifting from sugary and synthetic brands to low-calorie, functional alternatives
Celsius delivers on performance + wellness—a powerful consumer value prop
Brand Loyalty & Community 👟
Strong digital engagement with a cult-like following
Supported by fitness influencers, events, and brand ambassadors
Investment Outlook:
✅ Bullish Above: $30.00–$31.00
🚀 Upside Target: $52.00–$53.00
📈 Growth Drivers: New market segments, global scaling via Pepsi, clean-energy trend momentum
📢 CELH: Redefining energy drinks with purpose, performance, and wellness.
#CELH #FunctionalBeverages #CleanEnergy #WellnessTrend
META Slow recovery but $900 possible this yearMeta Platforms (META) had a strong -35% correction in the past two months, dipping even below its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). By doing so, it reached the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the 2-year Channel Up and rebounded instantly.
The rebound has stopped so far on the 1D MA200 where it got rejected. This keeps the market neutral and the long-term bullish sentiment can only be resumed if the market breaks and closes above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Until then we are neutral but only as long as the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) holds, below it the bearish trend is resumed and the correction can potentially reach -50% to -70%.
If however we close above the 1D MA50, expect a +90% rally, similar to the first Bullish Leg of the Channel Up, slow at start but aggressive after half point. Target $900.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
US100 - Lots of opportunities unfoldingChart Overview:
This analysis focuses on the US 100 (NAS100) index, sourced from CAPITAL.COM . The chart highlights critical price levels, Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) , and a Buy side liquidity (BSL) , offering actionable insights for traders.
Key Observations:
1. Price Action & Structure:
- The index has shown significant volatility, with a clear Break of Structure (BSL) indicating a potential shift in market sentiment.
- The price is currently navigating between key support and resistance zones , marked by horizontal levels.
2. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs):
- Two prominent FVGs are visible on the chart, representing areas where price may revisit to fill imbalances. These zones often act as magnet levels for price retracements.
- Traders should monitor these FVGs for potential entry or exit opportunities , depending on price reaction.
3. Critical Price Levels:
- Resistance Zones:
- 20,250.0 : A major psychological barrier.
- 19,750.0 - 20,000.0 : Intermediate resistance cluster.
- Support Zones:
- 17,000.0 - 17,250.0 : Strong historical support.
- 16,000.0 : A pivotal level for long-term bias.
Trading Strategy:
- Bullish Scenario: A break above 20,250.0 could signal further upside, targeting 20,500.0 and beyond.
- Bearish Scenario: A drop below 17,000.0 may confirm a deeper correction, with 16,250.0 - 16,000.0 as the next target.
- FVGs as Confluences: Use the identified FVGs alongside volume and momentum indicators to refine entries.
Timeframe & Validity:
This analysis is based on the daily timeframe (Apr 19, 2025) and remains valid until key levels are breached or new structures form.
Final Notes:
Always pair this analysis with risk management (stop-loss, position sizing) and confirm with additional indicators (RSI, MACD, volume). The market may fill FVGs before continuing its trend.
Like, follow, and comment if you found this useful! Happy trading!
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 16, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🗣️ Federal Reserve Speeches: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 1:30 PM ET, providing insights into the economic outlook and potential monetary policy adjustments. Additionally, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak at 12:00 PM ET, and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak at 7:00 PM ET.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, April 16:
🛍️ Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +1.2%
Previous: +0.2%
Measures the total receipts of retail stores, reflecting consumer spending trends.
🏭 Industrial Production (9:15 AM ET):
Forecast: -0.1%
Previous: +0.7%
Indicates the output of the nation's factories, mines, and utilities.
🏠 Homebuilder Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 37
Previous: 39
Assesses the confidence of homebuilders in the market for newly built single-family homes.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
DOW JONES Free Signal! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
US30 made a nice bullish
Rebound from the lows it
Plunged towards during the
High volatility of the last weeks
But now that the market seems
To have calmed down a bit we
Are seeing a retest of the
Horizontal resistance of 40,725
And a local pullback so we are
Locally bearish biased, therefore
We can enter a short trade
With the Take Profit of 39,700
And the Stop Loss of 40,956
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TEVALooks like price is near a support zone dating back to around late April 2024 where the "throw up" emoji is. After the bearish volume spike on 1/29/25 happened, price shot down strong and since then seems to be widening its stance. From March 13th - April 9th bearish volume slowly increased but not with the same authority that happened in January. Bearish volume seems to be simmering down since the 9th and i want to see if we get some consolidation before a test of the nearby daily target zone.
If price continues to shift down and another trade opportunity presents itself, I'll take another look and reassess.
PFEAt the current price, I'm looking for a retest toward the daily target zone located on the chart. On 3/21 PFE announced news about dropping the decision to move forward with the weight loss drug. Since then, price dropped down in spike like fashion. After the big volume spike, on that date, volume cam down and slowly started to build up again for the bears but there may be some weakness here. I wonder if this is a good price range where short sellers are starting to get concerned? I don't care for news and and am mainly a volume trader. So this trade will be interesting and maybe we get some attention at some point.
If price goes lower, we will revisit if another opportunity presents itself.
Daily Price Action: Dow Jones DJI Tuesday 4/15/2025In this video, we are looking into the potential daily price action of DJI.
Daily Price Action: Nasdaq NDX Tuesday 4/15/2025In this video, we are looking into the potential daily price action of NDX.
AMAZON is on its 3rd historic +1000% growth Bull Cycle.Amazon (AMZN) almost has been trading within a multi-year Channel Up pattern since the Housing Bubble bottom in November 2008 and this month almost touched its 1M MA50 (blue trend-line).
With the exception of the 2008 Housing Crisis and the 2022 Inflation Crisis, which bottomed on the 1M MA100 (green trend-line), the 1M MA50 has never been broken. In fact it has been the key Support of every Bull Cycle that surprisingly has so far peaked on a +1051% rise.
As you can actually see by the 1M RSI, such corrections, like the one in the past 3 months, are quite common within the Channel Up and offer excellent long-term buy entries.
So, technically the Inflation Crisis bottom (December 2022) on the 1M MA100 has initiated Amazon's 3rd historic Bull Cycle within this pattern and based on the previous two, it may also peak after a +1051% rally inside 2028. Our projected Target on this is $900.
Would you miss out on such an opportunity in the past?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 15, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🏦 Major Bank Earnings: Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) are set to report Q1 earnings before the market opens. BAC is expected to post an EPS of $0.81, while Citigroup anticipates $1.84. Investors will closely watch these reports for insights into the financial sector's health amid ongoing market volatility.
💊 Healthcare and Consumer Goods Reports: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is also scheduled to release its earnings, with forecasts indicating an EPS of $2.57. These results will provide a glimpse into the performance of the healthcare and consumer goods sectors.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Tuesday, April 15:
📈 Import Price Index (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +0.1%
Previous: +0.4%
Measures the change in the price of imported goods, indicating inflationary pressures.
🏭 Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: -10.0
Previous: -20.0
Assesses manufacturing activity in New York State, providing early insights into industrial performance.
🗣️ Fed Governor Lisa Cook Speaks (7:10 PM ET):
Remarks may offer perspectives on economic developments and policy considerations.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
US30 WILL FALL|SHORT|
✅DOW JONES is set to retest a
Strong resistance level above at 41,000
After trading in a local uptrend for some time
Which makes a bearish pullback a likely scenario
With the target being a local support below at 40,000
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
SPY Short From Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
SPY went up again
To retest a wide horizontal
Resistance level of 551.00$
And as the political situation
Remains unstable we are
Bearish biased and we will
Be expecting a local move down
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
“Markets are strong” – Are they really?President Trump recently stated that "markets became very strong once they got used to tariffs."
But let’s look at the facts:
📊 AMEX:SPY is down -9% YTD, and major names like:
MSFT: -7.55%
AAPL: -18.66%
NVDA: -12.94%
Tech is bleeding, and the broader S&P 500 is clearly reflecting the pressure of trade policy uncertainty.
🟥 Tariffs = market stress
🟩 Market resilience = not the same as strength
What we’re seeing is not a “strong market” — it’s a market under pressure trying to survive political noise. The weekly chart shows a clear drop after the peak, followed by uncertainty, not conviction.
💭 Is this truly the “strength” investors want to see?
GOOGLE's generational bottom made. This is how it reaches $350.Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) almost tested last week its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). That level has been holding for more than 2 years (since March 13 2023) and it's been the main Support of the Bull Cycle that followed the November 2022 Inflation Crisis bottom.
The pattern is almost like the Ascending Triangle that led to the March 2020 COVID crash, which was the most recent time before the late 2022 bottom that the stock made contact with the 1W MA200. As you realize, all those times have been what we call 'generational bottoms', thus extremely good long-term buy opportunities. And as you see they've been on extremely tight time symmetry, all took place roughly every 2.5 years.
If the pattern continues to repeat itself, then we may witness a rally (green Channel Up) similar to the one that peaked on November 2021 and reached the 2.618 Fibonacci extension. As a result, setting a $350 Target would be more than realistic based on this pattern.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Price Action: Nasdaq NDX Monday 4/14/2025In this video, we will be looking at the Nasdaq (NDX) on the daily chart and its potential Movement throughout Monday 4/14/2025.
Quantum's PLTR Trading GuideSentiment: Bullish. AI and government contract hype drives enthusiasm, though valuation risks noted. Chatter lean bullish, citing growth momentum.
Outlook: Neutral, slightly bearish. Options pin $88, with $85 puts active. ICT/SMT eyes $86-$88 buys to $92 if $86 holds. Bearish below $86 risks $80.
Influential News:
Federal Reserve: Two 2025 cuts aid growth stocks, positive for $PLTR.
Earnings: Q1 due early May; no update today.
Chatter: Bullish on AI/contracts, some warn of pullback.
Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A): No confirmed NASDAQ:PLTR M&A; partnership expansions rumored.
Other: Tariff volatility hit tech; NASDAQ:PLTR resilient.
Indicators:
Weekly:
RSI: ~75 (overbought).
Stochastic: ~85 (overbought).
MFI: ~80 (overbought).
SMAs: 10-day ~$86 (above, bullish), 20-day ~$85 (above, bullish).
Interpretation: Overbought, bullish SMAs suggest pullback risk.
Daily:
RSI: ~72 (overbought).
Stochastic: ~80 (overbought).
MFI: ~75 (overbought).
SMAs: 10-day ~$86 (above, bullish), 20-day ~$85 (above, bullish).
Interpretation: Overbought, bullish SMAs but caution warranted.
Hourly:
RSI: ~70 (neutral).
Stochastic: ~75 (overbought).
MFI: ~70 (neutral).
SMAs: 10-day ~$86 (above, bullish), 20-day ~$85 (above, bullish).
Interpretation: Overbought, bullish momentum fading.
Price Context: $88.55, 1M: +2%, 1Y: +303%. Range $80-$92, testing $88 resistance.
Options Positioning (May 2025):
Volume:
Calls: $90 (10,000, 60% ask), $95 (8,000, 55% ask). Bullish bets on $90+.
Puts: $85 (7,000, 70% bid), $80 (5,000, 65% bid). Put buying grows.
Open Interest:
Calls: $90 (30,000, +5,000), $95 (20,000, +4,000). Bullish positions.
Puts: $85 (18,000, +3,000), $80 (15,000, +2,000). Hedging. Put-call ~0.7.
IV Skew:
Calls: $90 (45%), $95 (47%, up 3%). $95 IV rise shows upside bets.
Puts: $85 (40%, up 2%), $80 (38%). Rising $85 IV signals downside fear.
Probability: 60% $80-$92, 20% <$80.
Karsan’s Interpretation:
Vanna: Positive (~200k shares/1% IV). IV drop could pressure $88.
Charm: Positive (~100k shares/day). Pins $88.
GEX: +80,000. Caps upside.
DEX: +4M shares, bullish.
Karsan view: High GEX limits $92+; pullback to $85 likely.
ICT/SMT Analysis:
Weekly: Bearish at $88 OB, targets $85. Bullish > $92.
Daily: Bearish at $88 FVG, targets $85. Bullish > $90.
1-Hour: Bearish < $88, $85 target. MSS at $90.
10-Minute: OTE ($87-$88.50, $87.75) for sells, NY AM.
Trade Idea:
Bullish: 45%. ICT/SMT buys $86-$88 to $92. Options favor $90 calls. AI hype supports.
Neutral: 30%. $80-$92 range, balanced options.
Bearish: 25%. Below $85 likely with overbought signals. $85 put volume rises.
MARA Holdings, Inc.: Your Altcoin ChoiceThis is obviously not an Altcoin but it was requested in the Altcoin Choice session that we did recently, so here is the analysis.
MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA) . It looks good.
A long-term higher low has been established. MARA produced a low first in October 2023. This was followed by a series of swings and waves. Reaching the later part of 2024, the action turned full bearish and now in April 2025 MARA Holdings seems to be ready to go bullish again. And here the stock printed a higher low.
A long-term higher low will lead to a long-term higher high. The last peak happened in February 2024 at 34.09. The next higher high at 42.86 is an easy one and should happen in 2025. It can definitely go higher but I am no stocks expert so can't dig any deeper for you.
In support of these signals, I looked for the RSI and found a small bullish divergence. It is only a month old but it is still a bullish divergence and it is valid. The reading on the RSI is also good and supports a new wave of growth. It seems Crypto and the stock market are now one.
Trading volume is standard and average and does not support our bullish bias, but it doesn't negate either. Average volume with no change on the upside or downside supports a neutral market. A market on autopilot. If there was a bearish move this bearish move is not strong as it is not supported by volume. So the early reversal signals can be good as there is nothing to hold the bearish wave. Things can change, but we are not talking about that, we are looking at the chart and what it currently says.
The chart is saying that MARA can start to grow in the coming weeks and days. If this growth develops, it can last months and end up in a new high, a higher high based on the long-term.
Thank you for reading and for your continued support.
Namaste.
This Aussie Tech Gem Is Screaming BUY – If This Zone Holds!SDR (SiteMinder) is showing massive potential both technically and fundamentally:
- Trading 75.4% below fair value
- Forecasted to grow 65.36% YoY
- Earnings up 28.2% p.a. over the last 5 years
- Analysts expect 91%+ upside
On the chart, we’re sitting right on a high-probability monthly FVG + OB zone. If respected, we could see a strong rally back toward the $6.90–$7.78 buyside liquidity levels and beyond.
Key Levels to Watch:
📍 FVG support: ~$3.50
📈 Targets: $6.90 – $7.78
🧠 Confirmation needed via strong candle closes
🔥 Could be a high-reward play — but as always, DYOR!
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 14–17, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🏦 Major Financial Earnings Reports: This week, investors will focus on earnings from prominent financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup. These reports will provide insights into the financial sector's health amid recent market volatility.
📺 Tech and Healthcare Earnings: Key tech and healthcare companies such as Netflix, TSMC, and UnitedHealth Group are also scheduled to release earnings. Analysts will scrutinize these reports for indications of sector performance and future outlooks.
🏠 Housing Market Indicators: The release of housing starts data and a homebuilder confidence survey will shed light on the housing sector's response to recent economic conditions and tariff implementations.
🇪🇺 European Central Bank Meeting (April 17): The ECB is expected to address recent tariff developments and may announce interest rate decisions in response to economic pressures.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Monday, April 14:
🗣️ Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker Speaks (6:00 PM ET): Insights into regional economic conditions and monetary policy perspectives may be provided.
🗣️ Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Speaks (7:40 PM ET): Remarks may offer perspectives on economic developments and policy considerations.
📅 Tuesday, April 15:
📈 Import Price Index (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +0.1%
Previous: +0.4%
Measures the change in the price of imported goods, indicating inflationary pressures.
🏭 Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: -10.0
Previous: -20.0
Assesses manufacturing activity in New York State, providing early insights into industrial performance.
📅 Wednesday, April 16:
🛍️ Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +1.2%
Previous: +0.2%
Indicates consumer spending trends, a primary driver of economic growth.
🏭 Industrial Production (9:15 AM ET):
Forecast: -0.2%
Previous: +0.7%
Measures the output of factories, mines, and utilities, reflecting industrial sector health.
🏠 Homebuilder Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 38
Previous: 39
Gauges builder sentiment in the housing market, indicating construction activity trends.
📅 Thursday, April 17:
📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 223,000
Previous: --
Reports the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, reflecting labor market conditions.
🏠 Housing Starts (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 1.41 million
Previous: 1.5 million
Tracks the number of new residential construction projects begun, indicating housing market strength.
🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 3.7
Previous: 12.5
Measures manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region, providing insights into sector health.
🏦 European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: The ECB will announce its interest rate decision, with markets anticipating a potential cut in response to tariff impacts.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysi
Quantum's NVDA Trading Guide 4/13/25Sentiment: Neutral. AI chip dominance drives optimism, but tariff risks and valuation concerns temper enthusiasm. Chatter posts split—bulls see growth, bears eye correction.
Outlook: Neutral, slightly bearish. Options pin $110, with $105 puts active. ICT/SMT eyes $108-$110 buys to $115 if $108 holds. Bearish below $108 risks $105.
Influential News:
Federal Reserve: Two 2025 cuts support growth stocks, positive for $NVDA.
Earnings: Q1 due May; no update today.
Chatter: Debates AI growth vs. tariff/supply chain risks.
Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A): No confirmed NASDAQ:NVDA M&A; AI chip partnerships rumored.
Other: Tariff volatility hit NASDAQ:NVDA ; stock swung (April 3-9).
Indicators:
Weekly:
RSI: ~50 (neutral).
Stochastic: ~45 (neutral).
MFI: ~40 (neutral).
SMAs: 10-day ~$112 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$115 (below, bearish).
Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs signal weakness.
Daily:
RSI: ~48 (neutral).
Stochastic: ~50 (neutral).
MFI: ~45 (neutral).
SMAs: 10-day ~$112 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$115 (below, bearish).
Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs suggest pullback.
Hourly:
RSI: ~45 (neutral).
Stochastic: ~55 (neutral).
MFI: ~50 (neutral).
SMAs: 10-day ~$112 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$115 (below, bearish).
Interpretation: Neutral, stabilizing.
Price Context: $110.93 (April 11), 1M: -9%, 1Y: +28%. Range $105-$120, testing $110 support.
Options Positioning (May 2025):
Volume:
Calls: $115 (12,000, 60% ask), $120 (10,000, 55% ask). Mild bullish bets.
Puts: $105 (8,000, 70% bid), $108 (6,000, 65% bid). Put selling supports $108.
Open Interest:
Calls: $115 (35,000, +6,000), $120 (25,000, +5,000). Bullish interest.
Puts: $105 (20,000, flat), $108 (22,000, +3,000). Hedging. Put-call ~1.0.
IV Skew:
Calls: $115 (40%), $120 (42%, up 3%). $120 IV rise shows upside hope.
Puts: $105 (35%, down 2%), $108 (36%). Falling $105 IV supports floor.
Probability: 60% $105-$120, 20% <$105.
Karsan’s Interpretation:
Vanna: Neutral (~300k shares/1% IV). IV drop could pressure $110.
Charm: Neutral (~150k shares/day). Pins $110.
GEX: +60,000. Stabilizes range.
DEX: +8M shares, neutral.
Karsan view: GEX holds $105-$120; tariff news key.
ICT/SMT Analysis:
Weekly: Neutral, $105 support, $120 resistance. No $NVDA/ NASDAQ:AMD divergence.
Daily: Bullish at $110 FVG, targets $115. Bearish < $108.
1-Hour: Bullish >$110, $115 target. MSS at $108.
10-Minute: OTE ($109-$111, $110) for buys, NY AM.
Trade Idea:
Bullish: 50%. ICT/SMT buys $108-$110 to $115. Options show $115 calls. Fed cuts aid.
Neutral: 35%. RSI (~50), SMAs (bearish), $105-$120 range.
Bearish: 15%. Below $105 possible with tariffs. $105 put volume grows
