Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 12.2.2024🔮
📅Mon Dec 2
⏰10:00am
ISM Manufacturing PMI
📅Tue Dec 3
⏰10:00am
JOLTS Job Openings
📅Wed Dec 4
⏰8:15am
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
⏰10:00am
ISM Services PMI
⏰10:30am
Crude Oil Inventories
⏰1:45pm
Fed Chair Powell Speaks
📅Thu Dec 5
All Day
OPEC-JMMC Meetings
⏰8:30am
Unemployment Claims
📅Fri Dec 6
⏰8:30am
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
Non-Farm Employment Change
Unemployment Rate
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting ⏰
Stocks
SPX macro analysis ⏰ Hello 👋 it's me your RAJ 🙂 professional trader ✨
This idea 💡
is completely my own analysis to explain situation _&_ market conditions of CBOE:SPX
How this chart valid for long term 📌 explained clearly based on technical #TA 📌 #DYOR
Let's go with market conditions 1st 👉
PPL 📌 thinking 🤔 big crash in S&P500 , based on economy and some other theories
I don't this things go , if this happens 😂 it will vanish not only stocks or companies even goverment also get vanish
Money 💰 >> PPL work / save in -> gold , bank & stocks
Money 💰 >> banks -> save in ->> gold , stocks & giving loan to company & PPL 📌
Money 💰 >> companies -> save in future growth 📈 give return to retailers and keep on increasing vlaue for future like NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:GOOG , NASDAQ:AMD etc ....
if stocks lose 📌 PPL lose 📌 if ppl lose 📌 goverment also lose 📌 biggest revaluation 😂
This is the major index ☝️ for many stocks , did you think 🤔 it will crash 🩸 that much harder 🙂
Use 🧠
👀 Let's go with my technical analysis ⏰ #TA ->> how I am expecting macro growth 💹
👀 There tend line 🙄 at previous High 2022 > to < 2023 which actually promised
trend 📉 line and even turned as resistance 📌 for 1.2yr
+
Finally it was broken and re-test also done 👍 turned as support 📌 💜💚 🚀
👀 According technical analysis 📌 my analysis get Invalid 📌 when month close below $3800.2
👀 There was oder block strong 🚀 support 📌 in 3 - month $4000-4200
👀 The previous order block at $4300 & $4600 easily broken 😂
These and some other theories making me push towards new high 💰
Expecting target's 🎯
🎯 :: $4880-$5018 ( easy target )
🎯 :: $5324-$5469 ( 💯 target )
🎯 :: $5885-$6484 ( high pressure resistance )
Support 📌 $3900-4200
This is my analysis on S&P500 on macro , i will post other patterns and chart of technical as per education under this post 📌
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🪩 disclaimer :
▶️ TQ u for supporting 💚 follow idea 💡 get updates everytime ⏰ when I updated 📌
Note 👀
👉 keeping comments , reacting with emojis , pointing us is very easy to some people
They think 💬 what they see 📌 that was knowledge 📌
We need to learn market in many ways and should get adopted with experience, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS won't help understanding market structure and understanding bull 🐂 and bear 🐻 is more important
Economical conditions
Fundamentals
Technical
News
Sentiments
Checking macro to micro having good plan and build it is very important ☺️
Some Times market easily turn suddenly bear // bull 🤣 even we need to catch 🫴 those movements is also very important ☺️ 💛
I hope i cleared my view 🙂 if any points if I miss I will add in update 📌 post
Try to understand, try to learn - try to move with flexibility with market is important
Have good day 😊
LIC is can defensively insure your portfolioLife Insurance Corporation of India or LIC engages in the provision of insurance plans. It operates through the following segments: Life Business, Pension Business, Annuity Business, Variable Business, Health Business, and Linked Business.
Life Insurance Corporation of India CMP is 985.50. The positive aspects of the company are Attractive Valuation (P.E. = 15), Company with No Debt, Stocks Outperforming their Industry Price Change in the Quarter, MFs increased their shareholding last quarter, FII / FPI or Institutions increasing their shareholding and High Volume, High Gain. The Negative aspects of the company are Declining profits every quarter for the past 2 quarters, Companies with high market cap, lower public shareholding.
Entry can be taken after closing above 990 Targets in the stock will be 1034, 1070 and 1100. The long-term target in the stock will be 1134, 1161 and 1190. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 877 or 818 depending upon your risk taking ability.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
GSFC can grow and make it greenGujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd. engages in the manufacture and distribution of fertilizers and chemicals. It operates through the following segments: Fertilizer Products and Industrial Products. The Fertilizer Products segment includes urea, ammonium sulphate, di-ammonium phosphate and ammonium phosphate sulphate and nitrogen-phosphorus-potassium products. The Industrial Products segment comprises of caprolactam, nylon-6, nylon filament yarn and nylon chips, melamine and polymer products.
Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd. CMP is 224.13. The positive aspects of the company are Attractive Valuation (P.E. = 16.9), Company with Low Debt, Company with Zero Promoter Pledge, MFs increased their shareholding last quarter and FII / FPI or Institutions increasing their shareholding. The Negative aspects of the company fall in Quarterly Revenue and Net Profit, Declining Net Cash Flow : Companies not able to generate net cash and Increasing Trend in Non-Core Income.
Entry can be taken after closing above 227 Targets in the stock will be 232, 241 and 250. The long-term target in the stock will be 258, 268 and 283. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 218 or 188 depending upon your risk taking ability.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 29, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In this week's abbreviated trading session, the S&P 500 index has demonstrated significant upward movement, successfully retesting the completed Outer Index Rally level of 6000 and maintaining its position above the Mean Resistance level of 6008. The primary objective is to reach the Outer Index Rally target of 6123, with the potential for further extension to the subsequent Outer Index Rally level at 6233. This notable ascent toward the Outer Index Rally target of 6123 is projected to induce a pullback to the Mean Support level of 6000, facilitating the bullish trend's next phase.
SWING IDEA - APTUS VALUE HOUSING Aptus Value Housing Finance , a leading home loan provider focusing on affordable housing, is showing promising signs for a swing trading opportunity.
Reasons are listed below :
370-390 Zone Breakout : This level has been tested multiple times, and the stock is now attempting to break out, indicating potential for further upward movement.
Breaking Consolidation Zone of 3+ Years : The price is emerging from a prolonged consolidation phase, which could lead to a new bullish trend.
Higher Highs and Higher Lows : The trend remains intact with consistent upward movements, suggesting continued strength.
Trading Above Weekly 50 and 100 EMA : The stock is trading above these key moving averages, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
New All-Time High : The stock has made a new all-time high, reflecting strong market sentiment.
Volume Spike : A noticeable increase in trading volume indicates increased buying interest.
Target - 450 // 510
Stoploss - weekly close below 335
DISCLAIMER -
Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services.
@visionary.growth.insights
SWING IDEA - HDFC LIFE INSURANCE HDFC Life Insurance , one of India's leading life insurance companies, is showing strong technical signals for a swing trade.
Reasons are listed below :
750 Zone Breakout : This level has been tested several times and the stock is now poised to break out, indicating potential upward momentum.
Breaking Consolidation Zone of 3.5+ Years : The stock is emerging from a prolonged consolidation phase, which could signal the start of a new bullish trend.
Highest 52-Week Close : It recently achieved its highest close in the past 52 weeks, reflecting strong market sentiment.
Trading Near All-Time High : The price is approaching its all-time high, showing that the bullish momentum is intact.
Trading Above Weekly 50 and 200 EMA : This reinforces the positive outlook, with the stock maintaining its position above key moving averages.
Target - 870 // 990
Stoploss - weekly close below 660
DISCLAIMER -
Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services.
@visionary.growth.insights
VISA flashing a short-term sell signal.Visa Inc. (V) has been one of our most accurate recent stock predictions (August 29, see chart below), as it is about to complete the buy signal we gave on the Channel's bottom to a +27.36% rise and hit our $320.00 Target:
Needless to say, if you took that call, evaluate your options as the profit is already enormous. Moving forward, specifically zooming in on the 1D time-frame, we can see that Visa is flashing its first sell signal in a while.
The price isn't only almost at the top of the 2-year Channel Up but more importantly, the 1D MACD has completed a Cup sequence on a Bearish Cross, similar to all early corrections at the start of this Channel.
As you can see all MACD Bearish Crosses were followed by pull-backs of similar size with the minimum being -7.30%.
As a result, we can expect the stock to hit and even break below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at $295.00 (-7.30% decline), which would be also near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (similar to the December 22 2022 Low).
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US Equity Secular Bull Cycle, $SPX 24' Price Target, 2025 BeyondUS EQUITY
S&P 500 INDEX
BOHAN
The S&P 500 Index SP:SPX monthly chart: Over the past 30 years, the US stock market has weathered the personal computer cycle, the dot-com bubble, the social media cycle, and the subprime mortgage crisis. The most recent epic crash was the 2020 pandemic. Since then, the US stock market has continued its secular bull cycle, fueled by quantitative easing (QE) that began in 2008. We saw a bull market from 2020-2021 driven by QE, a bear market in 2022 due to interest rate hikes, and now, in 2023-2024, we are entering the Web 3.0 and AI era. So, where is the next epic crash? And will there be another bull cycle after that?
1.) No one can accurately predict the market. The first step to improving your COGNITION is to grasp the rules of the human system. The essence of society is that the rich exploit the poor, and the essence of the stock market is that institutions exploit retail investors. Only market makers, institutions, and family offices know what's going on because they set the game, and we're just playing it. As retail investors, the best we can do is improve our cognition, conduct in-depth research on the US stock market, and arrive at high-probability answers.
2.) Understanding dollar dominance is key to understanding society. The US established a new world order, shifting societal control from religion to currency. Wars are fought to defend the dollar's status. After the gold standard was abolished, the US dollar became the world's reserve currency, effectively ruling the world.
The long bull and short bear cycles in the US stock market rarely stem from fundamentals like earnings per share (EPS). They are mostly driven by the Federal Reserve's unlimited quantitative easing (QE) Cycles - printing money, issuing bonds, having debtor nations foot the bill, and injecting liquidity into the stock market.
Therefore, the US equity market is essentially a liquidity platform. Unless there's a World War III, US assets are the only ones suitable for long-term investment due to currency dominance. Invest long-term, dollar-cost average, and if there's an epic crash, keep buying the dip.
3.) S&P 500 (SPX) target price for the end of 2024: 6200+
Macros: The Fed's broad money supply (M2) is still growing, and QE continues.
Fundamentals: Strong corporate earnings growth, fueled by the AI era.
Technical: A 4-year weekly uptrend channel since 2020, plus institutional positioning JPMorgan's JPM Collar Positions: STO SPX 6055 C DEC 21 @$50.00 + x 39600) indicates significant buying pressure.
4.) Expecting a pullback in 2025, but the secular bull market will persist.
Macros: Short-term cyclical factors like tariffs might have an impact, but the long-term trend remains intact due to continued QE.
Fundamentals: Big tech valuations might become more reasonable, especially Nvidia. However, long-term EPS for Nvidia could reach $4.00, and overall corporate earnings growth remains strong.
Technical: The 4-year weekly uptrend channel might encounter resistance, and the JPM Collar positions could see a shift from buying to selling. However, significant open interest in SPX options with high gamma at 6300, 6500, and 7000 suggests institutional bullishness for mid-2025.
Even with a 15% to 20% correction, we should continue to buy the dip, as the secular bull cycle is expected to persist.
5.) The secular bull cycle is projected to last from 2008 to 2030. An epic crash might occur at the end of this cycle, followed by another major bull market. The potential cause of the crash would be the end of QE and a resulting liquidity crisis. This is speculation, of course, but the principle of dollar dominance suggests that as long as US hegemony remains, any crash presents a buying opportunity.
*The above analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*
ETH 1h Brief analyseHi Traders,
There is still unmitigation zone at 1D.
I believe that it seem to be a destination for me where ETH will be heading to.
You see the wave a-b-c at 1h and trend line written at 4h.
Hopefully, this confluence works.
Just remember it can do down further to 0.681 level as good retracement level.
Make sure double check the confirmation then start place the position with stop loss.
3 rules
Buy
Sell
Wait
Risk Appetite at a Crossroads: SPY vs. TLT Nears Key ResistanceIntroduction:
A classic market indicator for gauging risk appetite is the ratio between stocks AMEX:SPY and long-term bonds NASDAQ:TLT . The premise is simple yet powerful: when stocks outperform bonds, the market is in a "risk-on" environment, favoring equities. Conversely, when bonds outperform stocks, it signals a "risk-off" environment, favoring safety.
For years, this ratio has trended upward within an ascending price channel, reflecting the dominance of equities over bonds in delivering superior returns. However, the ratio is now approaching the upper boundary of this channel, a critical juncture for assessing the next phase of market dynamics.
Analysis:
Risk-On vs. Risk-Off: The SPY-to-TLT ratio provides a clear view of market sentiment. A rising ratio reflects confidence in equities, while a declining ratio indicates a shift toward safety in bonds.
Long-Term Uptrend: The ratio has been in a well-defined uptrend, marked by higher highs and higher lows. This trend underscores the market's preference for stocks over bonds in recent years.
Current Situation: As the ratio nears the upper boundary of its price channel, the potential for a slowdown or reversal increases. While the long-term uptrend remains intact, a pullback could signal a temporary period where bonds (TLT) outperform stocks (SPY).
Interest Rate Outlook: With interest rates potentially declining next year, bonds could see increased demand. However, as long as the ratio remains within its channel and continues to rise, the "risk-on" environment remains dominant.
Conclusion:
The SPY-to-TLT ratio is nearing a pivotal level that could influence market sentiment in the coming months. While the "risk-on" trend remains intact for now, a shift in dynamics could occur if the ratio fails to break through its resistance. Traders and investors should monitor this ratio closely to navigate potential shifts between equity and bond performance. What’s your outlook on this key indicator? Share your thoughts below!
Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SPY-to-TLT ratio, the ascending price channel, and key resistance and support levels)
Tags: #RiskAppetite #Stocks #Bonds #SPY #TLT #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends
$USCPCEPIMM -U.S PCE (October/2024)ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIMM
October/2024
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
-The US core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge to measure underlying inflation, rose by 0.3% from the previous month in October 2024, the same pace as in September and matching market forecasts.
Service prices rose by 0.4%, while goods prices decreased 0.1%. Year-on-year, core PCE prices rose by 2.8% in October, the most in six months, also in line with market estimates.
Frontline FRO possible Breakout targeting $28Analysis
Trendline Breakout: Recently broke above a downward trendline; potential for bullish momentum.
Support and Resistance: Watch for support near the trendline and next resistance around 25-26 levels. Recent high volatility.
Key Points for Trading:
Entry Point: Consider entering on pullbacks to the trendline if volume confirms.
Risk Management: Set tight stop-losses below the trendline.
Target: Aim for resistance levels at $26,60 and $28,60 for potential profit taking.
Continued Monitoring: Watch price action and volume for sustained breakout strength.
Trend Forecast:
Bullish Bias: Short-term bullish trend possibly forming.
Support Level: Watch for support around the $23 mark.
Resistance Level: Immediate resistance near $25-$26.
Forecast Summary:
Expected Movement: Potential retest of resistance near $25-$26, with pullbacks to support.
Triggers: Earnings reports, market news, or geopolitical events could impact movement.
Risk: Tighten stop-losses to manage risk effectively.
What Is a Stock Average Down and How To Use ItWhat Is a Stock Average Down and How To Use It
Averaging down is a strategy usually used by investors to reduce the average cost of a stock by purchasing additional shares when the market declines. This approach can potentially improve returns if the stock rebounds. However, the strategy can be applied to other markets and used by traders. This article delves into the mechanics, advantages, and risks of averaging down, providing valuable insights for both traders and investors.
Understanding Averaging Down
Averaging down is a strategy used to reduce the average cost of an investment (cost basis). When a stock's price declines after an initial purchase, an investor buys additional shares at a lower price. This reduces the overall cost basis, potentially positioning the investor for improved returns if the market rebounds.
For example, if an investor buys 100 shares of a stock at $10 each, the total investment is $1000. If the price drops to $8, buying another 100 shares costs an additional $800. The investor now holds 200 shares with a total investment of $1800. This reduces their average cost per share to $9.
A stock average down strategy can be effective if the price eventually rises above the new average cost, allowing the investor to take advantage of potential recoveries. However, it is crucial to consider why the stock's price is declining. If the decline is due to fundamental issues with the company, continuing buying may lead to larger losses.
Investors often employ this strategy in markets where they have high confidence in the stock's potential. It is commonly used in value investing, where investors look for stocks that are undervalued by the market. However, it can be risky if the investor misjudges the stock's potential or if market conditions worsen.
Although the strategy is more common in investing, traders can implement it in CFD trading. Moreover, the averaging down can be applied not only to the stock market but to other markets, including currencies, commodities, and cryptocurrencies*.
The Mechanics of Averaging Down
The goal of averaging down stocks and other assets is to lower the average entry price, or in the case of stocks, the average cost per share. Here's what the process might look like for a trader or investor:
- Initial Purchase: They buy a specified number of shares at the current market price.
- Price Decline: If the price falls, they decide to buy more shares at the new, lower price.
- Additional Purchase: They buy additional shares at the reduced cost to lower the cost basis.
The average down stock formula for calculating the new average cost per share is:
Average Cost per Share = Total Investment / Total Shares
For example:
1. Initial Purchase:
- Shares: 100
- Price per Share: $50
- Total Investment: $5000
2. Additional Purchase (after price drop):
- Shares: 100
- Price per Share: $40
- Additional Investment: $4000
3. Total Investment and Shares:
- Total Shares: 100 (initial) + 100 (additional) = 200
- Total Investment: $5000 (initial) + $4000 (additional) = $9000
4. New Average Cost per Share:
- Average Cost per Share = 9000 / 200 = $45
By purchasing more units at a lower price, the average cost is reduced from $50 to $45. If the price rebounds above $45, the trader stands to take advantage of the recovery. If you’re unsure of how to use this formula, there are also average down stock calculators available online.
*This formula can be applied to stock CFD trading and trading of other assets.
Why Market Participants Use Averaging Down
To average down a stock can potentially improve overall returns by lowering the cost basis of a stock when its price declines. Here are some specific scenarios where this strategy is suitable:
Confidence in Long-Term Potential
Investors often use this strategy when they have a strong conviction in a stock's long-term potential. If the decline in value is viewed as a temporary market fluctuation rather than a reflection of the company's fundamental value, averaging down allows buying more shares at a discounted price.
Value Investing
Value investors lower their cost basis to capitalise on undervalued stocks. When the market falls due to short-term sentiment rather than underlying financial health, these investors see an opportunity to acquire more shares at a lower price, expecting the stock to rebound as the market corrects its valuation errors.
Market Overreactions
Markets can overreact to news or events, causing sharp, short-term price declines. Traders who recognise these overreactions might take advantage of these dips, believing that the stock will recover once the market stabilises and the initial panic subsides.
Dollar-Cost Averaging
Some traders and investors incorporate averaging down as part of a dollar-cost averaging strategy, where they invest a fixed amount of money at regular intervals regardless of the price. This approach smooths out the buy price over time, reducing the impact of volatility and potentially lowering the average stock price during market downturns.
Portfolio Diversification
When managing a diversified portfolio, traders and investors might average down on specific stocks to maintain or adjust their portfolio balance. This can be part of a broader strategy to align the portfolio with longer-term investment goals while taking advantage of temporary dips.
The Psychological Factors and Pitfalls of Averaging Down
Averaging down is fraught with psychological challenges and cognitive biases that can impair decision-making.
One common bias is confirmation bias, where traders and investors seek information that supports their belief in the stock's potential recovery, ignoring negative signs. This can lead to persisting with the strategy despite deteriorating fundamentals.
Loss aversion plays a significant role, as market participants are psychologically inclined to avoid realising losses. Instead of accepting a loss and selling, they might buy lower, hoping for a rebound, which can exacerbate losses if the stock continues to decline.
Overconfidence bias can also affect traders and investors, leading them to overestimate their ability to analyse market movements and undervalue the risk involved. This overconfidence can result in repeatedly increasing exposure to a losing position.
Emotional factors such as fear and greed also come into play. Fear of missing out on a recovery can push traders and investors to buy more shares, while greed can drive them to double down on a position without proper analysis.
The first step to mitigate these pitfalls is to be aware of them and watch for them in your own trading. Using predefined criteria, maintaining discipline, and continuously reassessing the asset's fundamentals and market conditions based on logic, rather than emotion, can also help manage these psychological factors.
Differences Between Averaging Down in Investing vs Trading
Averaging down in long-term investing can be a prudent strategy. Investors with a long-term horizon often view market dips as opportunities to buy quality stocks at lower prices. This approach is based on the principle that, historically, stock markets tend to appreciate over time.
For instance, if an investor believes in the fundamental strength of a company, they might buy at a lower price during market volatility, expecting the stock to eventually recover and grow, thus lowering their cost basis and positioning for higher returns when the market rebounds.
In contrast, averaging down in trading, whether in stocks, forex, cryptocurrencies*, or commodities, can be risky. Traders operate on shorter timeframes and aim to capitalise on short-term movements rather than long-term growth. Continuing to add to a losing position in this context can lead to several dangers:
- Ignoring Stop Losses: It may cause traders to disregard their pre-set stop losses, deviating from their risk management plan and potentially leading to larger-than-anticipated losses.
- Increased Risk: Adding to a losing position increases exposure and can amplify losses, especially in volatile markets or during unexpected events. The loss can be steep if slippage causes the exit price to differ significantly from the planned stop-loss level.
- Slippage and Margin Calls: In leveraged trading, averaging down increases the risk of a margin call, where the trader must deposit more funds or face the forced closure of positions. This can be an extreme risk if the trader doesn’t manage their exposure correctly.
While some trading strategies might incorporate averaging down, they require careful analysis and a robust risk management framework. Traders should weigh the potential advantages against the heightened risks, ensuring they do not compromise their overall trading plan and capital safety.
How to Use Averaging Down
Using averaging down involves strategic planning, thorough analysis, and disciplined execution. Here are some practical steps:
Setting Clear Criteria
Traders and investors establish specific criteria for when to average down. This might include setting a predetermined price drop percentage or a particular condition in the company's fundamentals or market environment. For instance, a value investor might decide to buy if a stock drops 20% due to sentiment.
Conducting Thorough Analysis
Before averaging down, it's crucial to analyse the reasons behind the decline. Traders typically ensure the drop is due to temporary factors, not fundamental issues. For example, if a stock falls but the overall trend is bullish, it might be a suitable candidate for another purchase.
Technical factors play a key role in trading; head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform to get started analysing stocks and other assets with more than 1,200+ trading tools.
Determining Investment Limits
Setting a limit on the amount you invest in averaging down may help manage risk. It’s best to allocate a specific portion of your capital for additional purchases rather than continually buying as the market drops. For instance, if you initially invest $5,000 in a stock, you might decide to allocate only an additional $2,000 for averaging down.
Maintaining a Diversified Portfolio
Traders avoid over-concentrating on a single market when using averaging down. By keeping your portfolio diversified to spread risk across multiple assets, you can potentially ensure that poor performance in one asset does not disproportionately affect your overall portfolio.
Using Averaging Down with Other Strategies
Combining averaging down with other strategies, such as dollar-cost averaging or a well-defined stop-loss strategy, may potentially enhance its effectiveness. For instance, using dollar-cost averaging allows you to invest a fixed amount regularly, which may help smooth out buy prices over time.
The Bottom Line
Averaging down can be a useful strategy when approached with careful analysis and discipline. By understanding its mechanics and potential risks, traders and investors can make more informed decisions. For those ready to explore averaging down and other CFD trading strategies, consider opening an FXOpen account to take advantage of professional trading tools and resources.
FAQs
How to Calculate Average Price per Share?
To calculate the average price per share, divide the total amount invested by the total number of shares bought. For example, if you initially buy 100 shares at $50 each ($5000) and later buy 100 more shares at $40 each ($4000), the total investment is $9000 for 200 shares. The average price per share is $9000 divided by 200, or $45.
What Is the Average Down Strategy?
The common average down strategy involves buying additional stocks when their price declines, which lowers the cost basis of the position. For instance, if you buy a stock at $50 and it drops to $40, buying more stocks at the lower price lowers the overall average cost, potentially improving returns if the market rebounds.
What Is the Risk of Averaging Down?
A key risk is increasing exposure to a declining asset. If the stock continues to fall, it can lead to larger losses if the market doesn’t recover. In terms of trading, it can cause traders to disregard stop-loss levels and proper risk management, increasing the potential for significant financial harm and potentially leading to a margin call.
Can You Average Down Crypto*?
Yes, averaging down can be applied to cryptocurrencies*. However, the high volatility and speculative nature of crypto* markets make this strategy particularly risky. Traders are required to carefully consider market conditions and conduct thorough analysis before deciding to average down on crypto* assets.
*At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
COINBASE targeting $360 minimumCoinbase is trading inside a nearly 2 year Channel Up and the price is currently on the latest bullish wave.
A Golden Cross (1d) was just formed and according to the previous bullish waves, it appears the price is inside the last consolidation before the new Higher High.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 360 (+145.84% the smallest it had so far inside the Channel Up and 1.382 Fibonacci extension).
2. 470 (the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, the highest it had inside the Channel Up).
Tips:
1. The price has already crossed above the Channel Up once, so if the crypto market accelerates, we can't dismiss another break. However the bullish waves usually peak a little under the Channel's top. Which is very fitting for a 400 - 470 price range.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Alibaba - It Is So Predictable!Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) just rejected a major resistance:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
A couple of days ago Alibaba stock perfectly retested a major previous resistance level after rallying +45% just within a couple of weeks. We can first see more bearish movement and maybe even a retest of the trendline breakout level before Alibaba will continue its overall uptrend.
Levels to watch: $80, $110
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
JP MORGAN Expect a 1D MA50 correction before it turns into a buyJP Morgan Chase (JPM) posted a strong bullish leg on our last analysis (September 17, see chart below) that easily hit our $229 Target:
From a wider perspective on the 1D time-frame, the price is now right at the top of the 13-month Channel Up on an overbought 1D RSI and a 1D MACD that is about to form a Bearish Cross.
All previous Higher Highs of the pattern formed MACD Bearish Crosses and pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on a minimum of -7.35% correction. Note that the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) never broke, so as long as it holds, the long-term bullish trend is intact.
As a result, we now expect a pull-back to the 1D MA50 and a minimum of -7.35% decline puts the Target a $236.00.
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NASDAQ: BLMZ: Collection Phase Begins! After the consolidation period for BLMZ, we noticed a significant breakout on $0.550 ~ $0.600 level, we see a positive trend reversal together with volume had occurred for the past few trading days. This shows a positive upward trend with BLMZ breaking its key resistance level of $0.630 while continue to test of $0.650 resistance level.
We continue to recommend trading BUY for BLMZ with a immediate TP on $0.800 level.
Nasdaq - This Is Just The Beginning!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) is preparing a major rally going into 2025:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
As mentioned in all of my previous analysis, the Nasdaq is rallying but despite the recent strong move, there is still a lot more room towards the upside. With the channel breakout happening over the past couple of months, it is quite likely that we will see a rally of +50% during 2025.
Levels to watch: $26.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)