Stocks
Top 5 Books Every Trader Should Have on Their ShelfLet’s face it: there is more to trading than blindly smashing the buy and sell button after you’ve picked up the latest buzz on Reddit’s messaging boards. What’s happening between your ears is just as important as what’s happening on your charts. And sometimes, it might as well help you make sense of it all. So, where do you start if you want to sharpen your edge?
Books . Real, old-fashioned, mind-expanding books. The kind of reads that will school you in both the mechanics and mindset of trading. Forget the social media noise—we’re listing five books that will hand you the wisdom, strategies and mental toughness you need to not just survive but thrive in the seemingly chaotic world of markets. Let’s get into it.
📖 1. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
✍️ by Edwin Lefèvre
🧐 What’s it about : This is the OG of trading books. A classic that was first published in 1923, it follows the life of the legendary trader Jesse Livermore, who made and lost millions more times than most traders have had profitable months. It's less of a step-by-step guide and more of a philosophical deep dive into what drives traders to win, lose, and repeat the cycle.
💡 What’s the takeaway : You’ll find yourself nodding along, thinking, “Yep, been there” every few chapters. And trust us, Livermore’s lessons on greed, fear and market timing are still as relevant today as they were a century ago.
📖 2. Trading in the Zone
✍️ by Mark Douglas
🧐 What’s it about : If there’s one book that will help you stop blowing up your account because you’re caught in emotional trades, this is it. Mark Douglas breaks down the psychological barriers traders face and teaches you how to think in probabilities. Spoiler alert: The market owes you nothing. Douglas teaches you how to embrace the uncertainty of trading and act probabilistically—playing the odds, not emotions.
💡 What’s the takeaway : If you're constantly getting blindsided by your feelings, there is a high probability that this book will snap you out of that spiral and teach you how to approach the market with a level head.
📖 3. Market Wizards
✍️ by Jack D. Schwager
🧐 What’s it about : Ever wish you could pick the brains of the world’s greatest traders? Jack Schwager did it for you. This book is essentially a collection of interviews with the top traders of the 80s (think Paul Tudor Jones, Bruce Kovner, and Richard Dennis). Schwager’s interviewing style makes it feel like you’re sitting in on private conversations, absorbing their secrets, strategies and market philosophies.
💡 What’s the takeaway : There’s no single “right way” to trade. Whether you're a scalper or a trend follower, you’ll find someone here who matches your vibe. Plus, these stories prove that anyone—from a college dropout to a former blackjack player—can conquer the market with the right mindset and persistence.
📖 4. Technical Analysis of Stock Trends
✍️ by Robert D. Edwards and John Magee
🧐 What’s it about : If you’re serious about technical analysis, this is the trading bible. Originally published in 1948, this book largely introduced the world to concepts like trend lines , support and resistance , head-and-shoulders patterns , and much more. Edwards and Magee laid the foundation for almost every technical analysis tool you see around today.
💡 What’s the takeaway : This gem will teach you how to recognize trend changes, continuation patterns, and reversal signals that can sharpen your trading entries and exits.
📖 5. The Alchemy of Finance
✍️ by George Soros
🧐 What’s it about : If you want to understand not only how to trade but also how the world of finance operates, this is the book. Written by one of the most successful (and controversial) investors and currency speculators of all time, George Soros, The Alchemy of Finance is part autobiography, part deep dive into Soros' legendary "reflexivity" theory. It's not just about looking at price action—it's about understanding how traders' perceptions affect markets, often driving them in irrational directions.
💡 What’s the takeaway : Soros teaches you to think bigger than charts and numbers—to anticipate shifts in market psychology and position yourself accordingly.
Wrapping Up
You can binge all the videos, tutorials and online courses you want, but nothing beats the distilled wisdom found in a great trading book. These five reads are the perfect balance of trading psychology, real-life stories, and technical analysis insights that will help you become a better, more knowledgeable trader.
Bonus tip : if you start now, you’ve got a couple of months until Thanksgiving when you can brag about how many pages you read.
📚 Additional Picks for the Avid Trader
If you’re hungry for more insight, we’ve got a few additional picks for you. Of course, they offer a wealth of knowledge from market titans and cautionary tales from the trading trenches:
📖 More Money Than God by Sebastian Mallaby
A brilliant history of the hedge fund industry, revealing the strategies and personalities behind some of the greatest trades ever made—and showing you how the masters manage risk and opportunity.
📖 When Genius Failed by Roger Lowenstein
A cautionary tale of Long-Term Capital Management, the "genius" hedge fund that imploded in spectacular fashion. Learn what happens when ego and leverage collide in the financial world.
📖 The Man Who Solved the Market by Gregory Zuckerman
This is the story of Jim Simons and his secretive firm, Renaissance Technologies, which revolutionized trading with quantitative models. It’s a must-read for anyone intrigued by the world of algorithmic trading.
📖 Big Mistakes by Michael Batnick
Everyone makes mistakes—especially traders. This book dives into the biggest blunders made by history’s top investors and traders, showing you that even the greats are human—and how to avoid repeating their costly errors.
📖 Confusion de Confusiones by Joseph de la Vega
Originally written in 1688, this is one of the first books ever on trading (to many, the first ever), set during the time of the Dutch stock market bubble. It may be old but its lessons on speculation, greed and market psychology are as timeless as they come.
🙋♂️ What's your favorite book on trading and did it make our list? Comment below! 👇
RBA can shine if people dine at Burger KingRestaurant Brands Asia Ltd. engages in the management of restaurants. It offers burgers, breakfast, cravers, beverages, and desserts.
Restaurant Brands Asia Ltd. CMP is 112.99. The positive aspects of the company are Company with Low Debt, Company with Zero Promoter Pledge, MFs increased their shareholding last quarter, Strong cash generating ability from core business - Improving Cash Flow from operation, Growth in Net Profit with increasing Profit Margin and Strong Momentum: Price above short, medium and long term moving averages. The Negative aspects of the company are negative Valuation (P.E. = -26), Stocks Underperforming their Industry Price Change in the Quarter, Book Value Per Share deteriorating for last 2 years and Inefficient use of shareholder funds.
Entry can be taken after closing above 114 Targets in the stock will be 117, 119 and 123. The long-term target in the stock will be 127 and 133. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 103 or 98 depending on your risk taking ability.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Canara Bank can become a cool Investment. Canara Bank engages in the provision of commercial banking and financial services. It operates through the following segments: Treasury, Corporate or Wholesale Banking, Retail Banking, and Other Banking Business.
Canara Bank CMP is 109.30. The positive aspects of the company are cheap Valuation (P.E. = 6.3), Company with Zero Promoter Pledge, Mutual Funds Increased Shareholding over the Past Two Months, Dividend yield greater than sector dividend yield, Annual Profit Growth higher than Sector Profit Growth and Rising Net Cash Flow and Cash from Operating activity. The Negative aspects of the company are High Interest Payments Compared to Earnings, Stocks Underperforming their Industry Price Change in the Quarter and MFs decreased their shareholding last quarter.
Entry can be taken after closing above 109.75. Targets in the stock will be 113, 117 and 122. The long-term target in the stock will be 124 and 129. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 100.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NVDIA: Neutral but ready to breakout aggressively to the upside.NVDIA is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.101, MACD = -0.300, ADX = 35.106) as it is trading exactly on its 1D MA50. The long term pattern has been a Channel Up for the past two years and having touched its bottom on the August low, we expect the price to have broken upwards within 3 weeks. The early signal for that will be the RSI crossing overs its LH trendline. TP = $230.00
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Intapp (INTA) AnalysisCompany Overview: Intapp NASDAQ:INTA is making strides in AI-powered solutions, with its partnership with Monarch acting as a key driver for improving operational efficiency and broadening its market reach. CEO John Hall has been vocal about the transformative role of AI in the company's strategy, positioning fiscal 2024 as a year of strong AI adoption. This could open up new avenues for growth, particularly in sectors that prioritize technological advancements in workflow and decision-making processes.
Key Catalysts:
Revenue Growth: In Q2, Intapp reported $114 million in revenue, reflecting a 21% year-over-year increase, which outperformed expectations and underscored the company’s solid growth momentum.
AI Integration: The strategic focus on AI development and partnerships, like the one with Monarch, is expected to enhance efficiency and drive client demand, particularly as AI becomes more ingrained in professional services and consulting sectors.
Market Expansion: Intapp’s ability to grow its market presence through AI innovations and its tailored solutions for sectors like legal, accounting, and financial services strengthens its competitive edge.
Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on INTA above $40.00-$41.00, viewing the stock as well-positioned for long-term growth, particularly as AI adoption increases across industries. Upside Potential: The upside target for INTA is set at $62.00-$63.00, supported by strong revenue growth and strategic initiatives in AI.
💡 INTA—Empowering the Future of Professional Services Through AI. #AIInnovation #RevenueGrowth #TechLeadership
LTIM LONG BUY TRADE IDEALTIM long trade idea
buy signal/call
1. stock have completed a cup & handle kind of pattern
2. consolidation of considerable time period happend at this breakout level
3. us fed cut will benefit this stock
4. strong fundamentals
5. big investors with healthy holdings
buy @ 6450 SL @ 6200-6300 target 1 - @7000 target 2nd @7500 target 3 @ 8000 target 4 @ 8500
time period - around coming 3-9 months
NSE:LTIM
TOP 20 TRADING PATTERNS [cheat sheet]Hey here is Technical Patterns cheat sheet for traders.
🖨 Every trader must print this cheatsheet and keep it on the desk 👍
🖼 Printable picture below (Right click > Save Image As…)
In finance, technical analysis is an analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume.
Behavioral economics and quantitative analysis use many of the same tools of technical analysis, which, being an aspect of active management, stands in contradiction to much of modern portfolio theory. The efficacy of both technical and fundamental analysis is disputed by the efficient-market hypothesis, which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable, and research on whether technical analysis offers any benefit has produced mixed results. As such it has been described by many academics as pseudoscience.
Fundamental analysts examine earnings, dividends, assets, quality, ratio, new products, research and the like. Technicians employ many methods, tools and techniques as well, one of which is the use of charts. Using charts, technical analysts seek to identify price patterns and market trends in financial markets and attempt to exploit those patterns.
Technicians using charts search for archetypal price chart patterns, such as the well-known head and shoulders or double top/bottom reversal patterns, study technical indicators, moving averages and look for forms such as lines of support, resistance, channels and more obscure formations such as flags, pennants, balance days and cup and handle patterns.
Technical analysts also widely use market indicators of many sorts, some of which are mathematical transformations of price, often including up and down volume, advance/decline data and other inputs. These indicators are used to help assess whether an asset is trending, and if it is, the probability of its direction and of continuation. Technicians also look for relationships between price/volume indices and market indicators. Examples include the moving average, relative strength index and MACD. Other avenues of study include correlations between changes in Options (implied volatility) and put/call ratios with price. Also important are sentiment indicators such as Put/Call ratios, bull/bear ratios, short interest, Implied Volatility, etc.
There are many techniques in technical analysis. Adherents of different techniques (for example: Candlestick analysis, the oldest form of technical analysis developed by a Japanese grain trader; Harmonics; Dow theory; and Elliott wave theory) may ignore the other approaches, yet many traders combine elements from more than one technique. Some technical analysts use subjective judgment to decide which pattern(s) a particular instrument reflects at a given time and what the interpretation of that pattern should be. Others employ a strictly mechanical or systematic approach to pattern identification and interpretation.
Contrasting with technical analysis is fundamental analysis, the study of economic factors that influence the way investors price financial markets. Technical analysis holds that prices already reflect all the underlying fundamental factors. Uncovering the trends is what technical indicators are designed to do, although neither technical nor fundamental indicators are perfect. Some traders use technical or fundamental analysis exclusively, while others use both types to make trading decisions.
Best regards
Artem Shevelev
WIG - Resistance becomes supportGreetings to you all! I decided to mix journalism and technical analysis in this post. I will describe the last 20 years of price action in Warsaw Stock Exchange Index (WIG), laying out the market structure and how it was shaped by key geopolitical events. Keep reading till the end, because the key message is that decade-long resistance level might have become a support zone, and Polish stock prices could be well-positioned for future growth.
Warsaw Stock Exchange Index (WIG) has declined during 2008 financial crisis, after reaching all time high of 67,772 PLN. This price level created a resistance that scared off any early advances and pushed away subsequent rallies. 2017 and 2021 brought 2 attempts that failed to break above the resistance. The first rally did not quite have the momentum required to push the price higher, and the buying power vanished over the next 2 years. 2020 brought crisis and a steep decline in price, which was followed by a quick recovery through 2021. Price managed to close above ATH during July - December period of 2021, but it was short lived. Rising interest rates in 2022 and high inflation growth over the last 12 months resumed the pessimistic tone markets have followed in the aftermath of the covid pandemic, resulting in price falling back below the resistance, which remained intact at 65K - 75K PLN level.
It is important to mention that 2021 rally changed the character (CoC) of the established market structure post 2008 crisis, because price closed above ATH and set a higher high. Now, if I consider a local market structure of 2020 - 2024, I can clearly see a basic uptrend pattern of Higher High > Higher Low > Higher High, which is confirmed by both MACD and RSI indicators on monthly chart. Collectively, the 2020-2024 price impulse broke above the decade long resistance, which may now act as support, but, if you're a careful observer, you would notice that this happened as well in 2021. Why this time is different? Because consider the broader economic context, and you'll also notice that in 2024 inflation is seemingly under control (though above the target rates). Moreover, central banks kept the interest rates pretty much flat in 2022, and some even proceeded to cut them, lifting capital restraints affecting companies.
Hence, overall picture for WIG looks quite optimistic. It gained 27% in the last 12 months, broke above strong resistance, and it did so by establishing an uptrend price impulse. Meanwhile, Polish currency appreciated by ~5% against dollar and rose to #6 economy in Europe as of 2023. It grew twice as fast as top 5 economies both in 2023 YoY and during 2020 - 2023 period. I guess I will add some WIG to my portfolio, it looks good to me. But you decide for yourself, I'm not a financial advisor and this is not a financial advice. Thanks for reading this post.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 20, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the current week's trading sessions, the S&P 500 Index has demonstrated significant fluctuations, breaching the Mean Resistance level of 5648 and attaining the Inner Index Rally level of 5666 and the Key Resistance level of 5667. The index is on the verge of achieving the targeted Inner Index Rally at 5739. Yet, a potential retraction to 5620 in the upcoming week's session, with the prospect of further descent to the subsequent Mean Support indicated at 5552, could disrupt this progression. Conversely, an expected downward trend may be intercepted by the realization of a robust rebound to the Inner Index Rally at 5739, negating the anticipated decline.
Airbnb (ABNB): Holding the line, but for how long?!After charting Airbnb one month ago, we’ve seen another slight dip, and one of our members rightly pointed out that Airbnb has reacted well to the $113.60 price level. This level has acted as support for the fourth time now, and it seems like it could hold. However, t here’s a big BUT —we’re not placing an entry just yet. Trying to catch the exact bottom of Wave 1 can be risky and extremely difficult. Instead, we are more focused on waiting for a possible short opportunity if Airbnb rises again.
Airbnb continues to struggle, and we don't want to catch this falling knife too early, risking unnecessary losses. We’ll keep monitoring the situation closely, and if we gain more confidence that this is indeed the end of Wave 1, we’ll let you know. 🫡
NIO (NIO): 55% Increase but Bearish Trends Still LoomA while back, we analyzed NIO, and recently, we’ve seen a considerable 55% increase in the stock price. However, despite this rise, nothing truly convinces us that this bearish trend has ended or that a sustainable upward movement is underway.
The critical factor here is that none of the key levels that need to be breached for a trend reversal have been crossed. Specifically, we’re looking at the current Wave ((iv)) level around $6.04. If this level isn’t breached, it’s likely that we could see further declines, possibly dipping into the $2.99 range—or even lower, potentially as far as $1. It may seem dramatic, but considering NIO has already dropped up to 62% since January, repeating such a decline isn’t out of the question.
In conclusion, the market remains quite weak, and we’re still cautious about the possibility of more significant setbacks. Always remember, it’s okay to stay on the sidelines and not invest in everything that catches your eye. 🤝
PROCTER & GAMBLE is bullish bouncing on the 1D MA50.Procter and Gamble (PG) closed yesterday on a 3-day red streak and the 1D candle almost touched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the short-term Support, which is intact since August 14. The stock has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the December 15 2023 Low, which is inside a wider Channel Up pattern since the 2022 market bottom.
The 1D MA50 is the first Support level of the 9-month Channel Up, with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) being the second (and last). The Higher Lows are priced below the 1D MA50 but currently we haven't completed most likely the Bullish Leg at hand.
Last April the price pulled back to the 0.382 Fib, which held and provided the final push to the -0.236 Fib extension for a Higher High. Currently the 1D MA50 test is also testing the 0.382. If it holds, we expect the stock to peak again near the -0.236 Fib extension. As long as it holds then, we remain bullish, targeting 182.00.
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FED Cutting Interest Rates Is NOT BullishAs of this week the FED has announced that they will be slashing the FED funds rates by 50bps (0.50%). Contrary to popular belief, this is not necessarily bullish. Actually, the last three times that they did it was an indicator that a bear market was coming.
As seen on the lower chart, once the FED cuts the rates, it has often signaled a stock market crash in the not so distant future.
Do you think a stock market crash is coming? Share your thoughts🙏
Telephone and Data Systems (TDS) Analysis Company Overview: Telephone and Data Systems NYSE:TDS is actively expanding its fiber and broadband infrastructure, positioning itself for future growth in a high-demand sector. The company’s recent investments are paying off, with steady growth in its service addresses and strong financial performance.
Key Catalysts:
Fiber Expansion: TDS added 28,000 marketable fiber addresses in Q1 2024, increasing its fiber footprint significantly. The company has grown its service addresses by 12% year-over-year, reaching 1.7 million addresses, a key driver of its future revenue growth.
CEO Confidence: CEO Leroy Carlson has expressed optimism regarding TDS’s growth prospects, particularly emphasizing the company's strategic investments in broadband infrastructure.
Financial Performance: In Q2, TDS demonstrated strong financial health, with ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) growth, better cost management, and higher free cash flow, all of which enhance its earnings potential in the coming quarters.
Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on TDS above the $19.00-$20.00 range. Upside Potential: The upside target for TDS is set at $30.00-$31.00, driven by its expanding fiber infrastructure, solid financial performance, and the strategic broadband investments that position the company for long-term growth.
📡 TDS—Leading the Fiber and Broadband Revolution. #FiberExpansion #BroadbandGrowth #TDSInvestments 💡
MASTERCARD short-term weakness is a buy opportunity. Target $515Mastercard (MA) gave us an excellent sell signal on our last call (April 02, see chart below), reaching our exact Target ($440.00) before turning sideways and reach this way a Higher Low:
That Higher Low was a bottom on the 2-year Channel Up pattern that has been dominating the long-term price action of the stock. As you can see it hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and has rebounded since, which is similar to the March 16 2023 Low.
The similarities are evident on this chart between the Bullish and Bearish Legs of the Channel Up and the Sine Waves help at giving us a sense of Highs and Lows. The 1D RSI sequences between the two main fractals are also similar and this shows that probably we are at a similar symmetrical level as on July 14 2023.
As a result, we expect a short-term pull-back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and then final rally towards the elections for a Higher High around $515.00, which will be just below the -0.236 Fibonacci extension (similar to the September 14 2023 High). Then we expect the stock to yet again seek the bottom of the Channel Up near the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) at $460.00.
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The Global Liquidity Index is looking very interesting here.The GLI is looking very interesting at these levels. It's currently bouncing around within the Fibonacci retracement levels shown. Stocks and crypto usually perform better during times of increased liquidity for obvious reasons. Now that we are heading into a period where central banks around the world are propping up markets with freshly printed cash, we may see this index set a new high, which will be good for asset prices overall.
Good luck, and always use a stop loss!
3 Pro Tips for Managing Losing Trades,Risk, Emotions & StrategyManaging losing trades is an essential part of trading, whether you're involved in stocks, forex, or any other financial market, we have all heard traders say I haven't ever taken a loss before my strategy has 100% win rate blah blah ok really, even the best traders in the world take losses, as humans we naturally don't like to lose but in trading its a part of doing business. Here are three in-depth tips to help manage losing trades effectively:
### 1. ** Develop and Stick to a Risk Management Plan **
A risk management plan is your primary defence against significant losses. The key components include position sizing, setting stop-losses, and managing risk-reward ratios.
- ** Position Sizing **: Always ensure that you're not risking too much of your capital on a single trade. A common rule is to risk no more than 1-2% of your trading capital on any given trade. This way, even if you hit a streak of losses, your account can recover.
- ** Set Stop-Loss Orders **: A stop-loss is a predetermined point where you exit a trade to prevent further losses. This should be set based on your analysis and not emotions. Many traders use technical levels like support and resistance or a percentage-based rule (e.g., 2-5% below the entry price). However, it’s essential to place the stop at a level that aligns with market conditions, rather than placing it arbitrarily.
- ** Risk-Reward Ratio **: Aim for a risk-reward ratio that makes sense in the long term (e.g., 1:2 or 1:3), meaning that for every dollar you risk, you aim to gain two or three. This ensures that even with a lower win rate, your winning trades can outweigh your losses.
### 2. ** Detach from Emotional Biases **
Emotions like fear, greed, and frustration can cloud judgment, leading to poor decision-making during losing trades. Psychological discipline is crucial to protect against these common pitfalls.
- ** Avoid Chasing Losses **: After a losing trade, many traders try to "win back" what they lost quickly, often leading to overtrading or taking high-risk trades. This is called "revenge trading" and can exacerbate losses. Take a step back, assess the situation, and only enter new trades that meet your criteria.
- ** Accept Losses as Part of the Process **: Losing trades are inevitable. Successful traders view losses as an expense or cost of doing business. They understand that even the best trading strategies have losing streaks. Accepting this reality helps you avoid emotionally driven decisions.
- ** Maintain a Trading Journal **: Keeping track of both winning and losing trades can help you identify emotional patterns. Record why you took the trade, the results, and how you felt during the trade. This reflection can provide insight into emotional triggers and help you make more rational decisions in the future.
### 3. ** Adjust Your Strategy Based on Market Conditions **
Markets are dynamic and constantly changing. What works in one market environment may not work in another. Regularly review and adapt your trading strategy to current market conditions, particularly after losing trades.
- ** Assess Trade Context **: After each losing trade, conduct a post-trade analysis. Did the trade fail due to poor market conditions, execution errors, or a flaw in your strategy? Recognising these patterns can help you tweak your approach and avoid repeating the same mistakes.
- ** Diversify Your Strategy **: Relying too heavily on one trading approach or asset class can increase the likelihood of losses during unfavourable conditions. Consider diversifying your strategies (trend following, mean reversion, etc.) and the assets you trade. This spreads risk and can stabilise performance during market volatility.
- ** Cut Losses Early When Conditions Change **: If the market conditions that supported your trade change significantly, don’t hesitate to exit the trade, even before hitting your stop-loss. For example, news events or shifts in sentiment can render your trade idea invalid. Being flexible and willing to exit early when your initial reasoning no longer holds is essential.
By applying a robust risk management plan, controlling emotional biases, and regularly adapting your strategy to current market conditions, you can navigate and limit the damage of losing trades.
Fed Kicks Off Rate-Cutting Cycle. Why the Muted Market Reaction?Central bank bros met traders’ loftiest expectations with a half-point cut to interest rates on Wednesday. But is that too good to be true and maybe even a signal of some problems with the US economy and looming fears over at the Fed?
Trading today isn’t the same as trading yesterday. Even though prices don’t really confirm it — there wasn’t a super-duper rally in stocks. Maybe gold XAU/USD flickered a bit, but it was mostly froth . And here we are — the first day of trading in an environment with lower interest rates.
Jay Powell, head of the Federal Reserve, announced on Wednesday the first trim to borrowing costs in four years. The move ushers in a new normal where US interest rates USINTR are projected to continue moving lower from their 23-year high of 5.5%.
The easing cycle kicked off with a jumbo-sized 50 bps (basis points) slash. Surprisingly, the Fed went for the juicier, bolder and more aggressive option, leapfrogging the less interesting and exciting cut of 25 bps.
First reactions across the board showed investors were hyped to get what they wanted — the broad-based S&P 500 hit an intraday record .
Shortly after, however, stocks across the board pulled back and markets became anxious over the outlook as the realization kicked in. If the economy is doing fine, why go big on cuts from the get-go?
What’s more, central bankers are keen to ax interest rates by another half point in 2024, ultimately wrapping up the year with the benchmark rate sitting at 4.25% to 4.5%. Christmas may come early — the Fed meets twice more this year, on November 7 and December 18.
Better Safe Than Sorry?
A super-sized half-point cut could actually be a pre-emptive measure to alleviate a strained economy. But if inflation is now largely in the rearview mirror , what could the problem be? The other mandate. The Fed has a dual mandate of keeping prices in check (inflation) and upholding a stable labor market (jobs).
“We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress towards price stability,” Jay Powell said at the annual Jackson Hole gathering last month. And indeed, America’s jobs have seen a pronounced slowdown over the past few months. In July, markets added just 89,000 jobs (revised from an initial estimation of 114,000 ). In August, hiring had picked up modestly to 142,000 , but below expectations for 164,000.
Pros and Cons of Bumper Cut
Essentially, this big-boy cut of 50 bps is a double-edged sword. It cuts into borrowing costs, making money more affordable, potentially stimulating businesses to add more jobs and grow their gig. And it also prompts consumers to take on debt and get that house.
But on the flip side, a cut of that magnitude risks stirring up price pressures again. To get to full employment, the Fed faces the challenge of knocked inflation waking up from its slumber.
The size of the cut at this particular time doesn’t mean anything without the markets’ reaction to it. Apparently, investors were unimpressed and shrugged it off as no big deal. Looking ahead, however, the stakes are high because stocks are at all-time highs.
The S&P 500 touched a record, Big Tech is leading the charge into artificial intelligence and investors can’t own enough of the highflyers Nvidia NVDA , Meta META , Apple AAPL , etc.
The actual picture will become clear once markets figure out what the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle means and what to do about it.
ES, SPX - Santa Rally could trigger Cup & Handle patternA strong end to Q4
Window dressing by fund managers who were underweight equities
would trigger a cup handle pattern
breaking the trendline of the pattern is around 4600 on the #ES
I could also make an argument for HVF pattern we have a high 3 in place
A recession will no doubt rear it's head at some point ...
but a blow off top first to hand bears a beating is definitely a scenario I have shared before.
AMAZON SHORT FROM RESISTANCE|
✅AMAZON is set to retest a
Strong resistance level above at 191.75$
After trading in a local uptrend for some time
Which makes a bearish pullback a likely scenario
With the target being a local support below at 184.00$
SHORT🔥
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META: Targeting $700 at least by the end of the year.META platforms is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 63.256, MACD = 7.090, ADX = 26.657) as it is making a healthy rebound on the 1D MA50. The 1 year Channel Up is posting recurring phases inside it and at the moment we are on similar grounds as early December 2023. Even the 1D RSI is identical between phases. Technically that suggests that the Channel Up can top on a HH after a +92% rise from the bottom but having the 0.618 Fibonacci level as a clear Rising Resistance, we will settle for a TP = 700.00 by the end of the year.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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