AMD Road to $295 has begun.The Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is on the 2nd straight weekly bounce following the August 05 bottom. This is so far the strongest 2-week bullish reversal since November 06 2023, which was the previous bottom/ Higher Low on the 2-year Support Zone.
It is no coincidence that this rebound took place just before hitting the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). So far we have had two Bullish Legs arising from this Support Zone structure and currently we are expecting the 3rd.
Since the decline following the March 2024 High has been around -47%, similar to the September 2023 one, we expect the Bullish Leg to be equally strong. As a result, our new long-term Target is $295.00.
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Stocks
SPTM Prepare for Consolidation or Pullback in the Coming QuarterThe SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500 Composite Stock Market ETF (SPTM) has shown impressive performance over the past months, driven by a general bullish market sentiment. However, as we approach the next quarter, key indicators from the QuantEdge Momentum System suggest that the ETF might face significant resistance, leading to a potential period of consolidation or even a pullback.
Key Technical Insights:
Z-Score Analysis:
The Z-Score currently stands at 0.7583, indicating that the price of SPTM is trading above its historical mean. However, this value is nearing a threshold where the momentum might start to slow down. This suggests that while the ETF has experienced an uptrend, the room for further gains could be limited unless there is a strong bullish breakout.
Z-Score of RSI:
The Z-Score of RSI is in the negative territory (-0.9841), which is a divergence from the positive price Z-Score. This indicates that the momentum behind the uptrend is weakening. RSI being below its average typically signals that buying pressure is diminishing, which could result in a stagnation or decline in price.
Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD):
The CVD reflects a higher level of selling pressure, with cumulative volume favoring sellers. This is another warning sign that the upward momentum might be unsustainable in the short term.
Projection for the Next Quarter:
Given the mixed signals from the proprietary QuantEdge Momentum System, it is likely that SPTM could encounter resistance near current levels. Traders should be cautious as the ETF might enter a consolidation phase or experience a pullback during the next quarter. The weakening RSI momentum and increasing selling volume suggest that upside potential is limited unless there is a significant catalyst to drive prices higher.
For traders, this is a crucial moment to assess risk and possibly secure gains from the previous uptrend. Those looking to enter new positions may want to wait for a clearer breakout signal or consider short-term trades based on confirmed support levels.
Stay vigilant and adjust your strategies according to the evolving market conditions. The QuantEdge Momentum System will be your guide to navigate the upcoming volatility in SPTM.
Comparing Different Financial MarketsComparing Different Financial Markets
In trading, understanding the types of international financial markets is crucial. This article offers a comprehensive market comparison of the stock, forex, commodity, crypto* and bond arenas. You’ll learn the importance of these financial markets and what it takes to navigate each one effectively.
Stock Market
The stock market is a financial marketplace where traders and investors can buy and sell shares of publicly traded companies. By purchasing a stock, an investor essentially owns a slice of the company, and their investment's value moves in tandem with the company's performance.
- Risk: Stocks can be volatile, subject to market sentiment, economic indicators, and company performance. Risk varies widely among different types of stocks.
- Income Potential: Day traders aim for short-term gains, while long-term investors often seek stocks that offer dividends or high growth potential.
- Knowledge: A solid understanding of market trends, company fundamentals, and technical indicators is beneficial for effective trading.
- Liquidity: Most stocks, especially those listed on major exchanges, have high liquidity, allowing for quick entry and exit.
- Costs and Fees: Costs can include brokerage commissions, although many online platforms now offer zero-commission trading.
- Trading Hours: Generally restricted to weekdays, opening and closing at set times, with after-hours trading being possible but less liquid.
Forex Market
The forex market is the global marketplace for buying and selling currencies. Traders pair two currencies, like EUR/USD, and profit from the fluctuations in exchange rates.
- Risk: Forex trading can be highly volatile and is considered riskier than stock trading, influenced by geopolitical events, interest rates, and economic data.
- Income Potential: High leverage can amplify gains but also increase risk. Many traders seek to profit from short-term fluctuations.
- Knowledge: Understanding of macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical events, and technical analysis can be crucial for success.
- Liquidity: Extremely high, given the 24/5 operation of the Forex market.
- Costs and Fees: Typically lower than other markets, often involving spreads rather than direct commissions.
- Trading Hours: Operates 24 hours a day, five days a week, allowing for flexibility in trading times.
Commodity Market
The commodity market is one of the types of international financial markets where physical or virtual assets like gold, oil, or agricultural products are traded. These markets often act as a gauge for supply and demand conditions globally.
- Risk: Commodities can be quite volatile, influenced by global events, natural disasters, and political instability. Traders often hedge against other market risks by investing in commodities.
- Income Potential: Gains can be substantial but are also subject to dramatic shifts based on the factors mentioned above.
- Knowledge: Understanding of global economic indicators, supply and demand factors, and geopolitical events is critical.
- Liquidity: Varies widely depending on the commodity; for example, gold and oil are highly liquid.
- Costs and Fees: This can include brokerage commissions, futures contract fees, and costs associated with physical storage for some commodities.
- Trading Hours: Vary by commodity and exchange, but many have extended hours due to global demand.
Cryptocurrency Market*
The cryptocurrency market is a decentralised digital asset market that includes cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and various tokens. It's the newest and one of the most rapidly evolving financial markets.
- Risk: Extremely volatile, with prices subject to rapid fluctuations, sometimes within minutes. Regulatory concerns add another layer of risk.
- Income Potential: High potential for both short-term and long-term gains, but also significant risk of loss.
- Knowledge: Understanding of blockchain technology, market sentiment, and technical analysis is often crucial. Familiarity with regulation is also beneficial.
- Liquidity: Generally high for well-known cryptocurrencies but can be low for lesser-known tokens and coins.
- Costs and Fees: Vary by platform and may include transaction fees, deposit/withdrawal fees, and "gas" fees for certain types of transactions.
- Trading Hours: Operates 24/7, allowing for ongoing trading and the chance to react to market news or events.
You can head over to FXOpen's free TickTrader platform to explore the above-mentioned markets for CFD trading in real-time.
Bond Market
The bond market is a segment of the financial market where debt securities are issued and traded. Unlike the stock market, which is a part of the capital market, the bond market focuses on long-term debt instruments. This highlights the difference between capital markets and financial markets.
- Risk: Generally considered lower risk compared to stocks and commodities, although risk can vary depending on the issuer's creditworthiness.
- Income Potential: Lower yield compared to more volatile markets, but often offers more stable returns through interest payments.
- Knowledge: Understanding of interest rates, yield curves, and credit ratings is essential for bond trading.
- Liquidity: Varies depending on the type of bond; government bonds are usually highly liquid, while corporate bonds can be less so.
- Costs and Fees: Transaction costs are generally built into the bond's price, but some brokers may charge commissions.
- Trading Hours: Primarily traded over-the-counter (OTC), with some bonds available on exchanges. Trading hours can vary but are generally regular business hours.
The Bottom Line
In summary, the diverse features of financial markets offer traders a range of opportunities, from stocks and commodities to cryptocurrencies* and bonds. Armed with this knowledge, you're now equipped to navigate the markets with confidence. Want to put these insights into action? Consider opening an FXOpen account to kickstart your trading adventure.
*At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
UBS (UBSG): Too Big to Fail?Remember this analysis from over four months ago? We didn't place a limit order at that time (which is why it's greyed out), but if you followed our setup during the livestream back then, congratulations! The chart reacted beautifully at the desired level, just as we anticipated.
In my opinion, this is a great-looking chart, showing a strong reaction at a key level. I'm now looking for some long plays on UBS to gain some exposure to the Swiss market. UBS is a relatively safe stock, which is a good thing to have during phases of uncertainty.
The worst-case scenario would be a banking crash, but we believe UBS is still too big to fail. As long as it maintains this status, we like it. I'll send out a limit order once I find a good setup. For now, I wouldn't recommend any FOMO into this stock, as it could be a dead cat bounce, but we'll closely monitor it for you.
AAPL / APPLE🔍 AAPL Analysis: Key Dates for Market Movements 📈
The AAPL chart highlights two critical dates that could shape your trading strategy:
October 7, 2024 - Red Line: This date marks a potential local peak. It might be an opportune moment to take profits as the stock could face resistance or enter a short-term correction.
August 25, 2025 - Green Line: A significant local low is expected around this time. This could present an ideal opportunity to accumulate AAPL shares, positioning yourself for the next major upward move.
By strategically planning around these dates, you can optimize your trading decisions and maximize returns.
#AAPL #StockMarket #MarketTiming #InvestmentStrategy #AppleStock
A Guide on How to Stay on the Right Side of Market RiskStaying on the right side of the market is the only thing that matters in investing. The goal is simple: be long the things that go up and avoid the things that go down. Although this sounds straightforward, investors often focus too much on the upside potential and forget about the downside. In reality, avoiding the downside is by far the most important factor that will have the biggest impact on your total returns. This is because a -50% loss will always require a +100% gain just to break even.
Step 1: Follow the Trend
The most effective method to stay on the right side of the market is by following the trend, primarily through moving averages. The two most common types are the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The EMA assigns more weight to recent price movements, making it more responsive and effective for signalling the start of a downtrend, while the SMA offers a clearer view of the longer-term trend.
The simplest way to construct a trend-following indicator is to combine a short-term EMA with a long-term EMA. A buying signal is triggered when the short-term EMA crosses above the long-term EMA, and a selling signal is triggered when it crosses below. This systematic approach ensures clear and actionable signals.
Optimizing this strategy involves backtesting various EMA combinations to strike a balance between minimal trading frequency, lowest maximum drawdown, and highest profit factor. It’s also crucial to select assets that have historically adhered to trends, as these are more likely to continue doing so.
Assets that typically adhere to trends, such as cryptocurrencies, fiat currencies, commodities, and tech stocks, are often driven by speculative or uncertain future expectations. By incorporating a longer-term SMA and adding a safety margin to the calculation, you can help minimize false signals from the EMAs.
It’s advisable to compare asset performance not only against the USD pair but also against the safest investable asset in the selected asset class. This comparison helps determine if the additional risk is worth taking.
Step 2: Draw the Lines
Trend-following strategies are effective only with a clear market trend. Without it, prices may exhibit range-bound movements and generate false signals. Drawing trend lines and identifying horizontal support and resistance levels are crucial for enhancing the accuracy of these signals. The most reliable entry points typically follow a confirmed breakout from these lines, with older lines often indicating more significant breakouts.
When drawing trend lines, it’s crucial to use both normal and logarithmic chart scales. The most reliable trend lines appear consistent across these scales, with a breakout observed on both further confirming the trend.
Additionally, identifying reliable patterns like head and shoulders, inverse head and shoulders or double tops and bottoms can further validate trend breakouts. TradingView’s pattern recognition tools can automate this process and provide price targets, which can be helpful but are not always guaranteed.
Step 3: Understand the Macro
Following current macroeconomic conditions can enhance your understanding of the overall business cycle. The primary macro forces that influence asset markets are growth, inflation, and policy. These factors are subjective and not directly quantifiable, making them unsuitable for direct investment decisions. However, they are useful for assessing the market’s risk appetite, which should influence only your position size and not your systematic approach.
The US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is one of the most informative macroeconomic indicators, providing insights into potential economic growth trends and helping anticipate inflections in the business cycle.
Monitoring the US inflation and unemployment rates is also beneficial, as they significantly influence monetary policy. While minor fluctuations may not provide much insight, sustained trends that align with the Federal Reserve’s targets of 2% inflation and low unemployment are indicative of a healthy economy.
Furthermore, tracking global liquidity can reveal the real-time effects of monetary and fiscal policies implemented by major central banks and governments. This serves as a valuable tool to assess the market’s risk appetite.
In conclusion, this guide helps investors stay on the right side of the market by adopting a systematic approach that captures bull markets while avoiding major downturns. Recognizing that the future is unpredictable and that markets are driven by momentum, this method can both preserve and grow your wealth in a less stressful way. A disciplined, systematic approach, executed dispassionately, is essential for navigating market uncertainties. All indicators discussed are publicly available or can be accessed on my profile.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
Tesla on the rise...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📉TSLA has been overall bearish trading within the falling channel marked in red.
Currently, TSLA is hovering around a massive round number $200.
🏹 For the momentum to be shifted from bearish to bullish, a break above the last major high marked in red is required.
📈 In such a scenario, a movement towards the previous major high at $270 is expected.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Electronic Arts (EA) | Finally a Confirmed Breakout!Hi,
Electronic Arts (EA) has finally made a statement. For over 6 years it has tried to break above $150. Multiple failed attempts before the 2024 July close which was the confirmation for a possible further growth.
This is a perfect example of how you should wait for a breakout. Let the other investors show you what might happen next. They were willing to pay prices that have never been paid per share and we take it as a strong statement, monthly close is the confirmation, and who want to jump in then there is the possibility.
Quite a similar price action to my earlier post about Mastercard (MA):
Good luck,
Vaido
Atlas Copco AB: Potential Entry Points in a Long-term UptrendOMXSTO:ATCO_A has demonstrated a long-term uptrend throughout its history, marked by two strong channels, with higher highs and higher lows.
Since the Ukraine-Russian market crash, OMXSTO:ATCO_A has experienced a 100% increase. Currently, the stock is at the resistance channel, which has resulted in a notable downward reaction:
During the strong uptrend, previous resistance levels, where the price peaked, turned into support levels when the stock experienced pullbacks. Now, as the stock returns to these crucial levels, they may serve as key support, potentially causing the stock to struggle to break below them or to rebound and rise further.
I anticipate that the stock will gradually break through each of these key levels, eventually approaching the lower trendline before launching into a significant bull run. This scenario presents a promising opportunity for a long position, but we need additional bullish confirmation at these levels before making a move.
Important levels: 150 SEK, 140 SEk, 120 SEK, 100 SEK
Microsoft Recovers 10% From Market Correction!Berkshire Hathaway has significantly cut its Apple investment, selling 505 million shares—a 55.8% reduction. This move reflects a major shift in its investment strategy, despite an 800% gain in its Apple shares since 2016.
The decision is influenced by multiple market factors, including a slowdown in Apple's revenue growth and a significant drop in smartphone demand, particularly impacted by shrinking markets in China and ongoing legal challenges, such as a U.S. Department of Justice antitrust lawsuit.
Despite these hurdles, Apple is pushing innovation, venturing into artificial intelligence and satellite connectivity, which could strengthen its market position and open new revenue streams.
Meanwhile, Apple's stock, after peaking at $237 in July and dropping to $200, has begun to recover, rising 10% since a post-earnings dip in early August, with a 12% year-to-date increase.
This volatility underscores the need for investor patience, given Apple's trend of prolonged growth phases interspersed with flat periods.
Coinbase Remains In The Bullish Trend, So As Crypto MarketCoinbase is making strong and impulsive rally away from the lows, which should be completed by a five-wave bullish cycle from Elliott wave perspective.
We have seen some slow down for the last couple of months, but it looks like a clean wave 4 correction that can send the price higher into a 5th wave later this year.
Considering a positive correlation with the cryptocurrencies, it can also help Crypto market to stay in the bullish trend.
Carvana (CVNA) AnalysisCompany Overview:
Carvana, a leader in the online used car market, is transforming its business model following its acquisition of ADESA's U.S. physical auction business in 2022. This acquisition has positioned Carvana as the second-largest used car company in the U.S. and is driving a shift towards a more profitable marketplace model.
Key Highlights:
Strategic Acquisition: The acquisition of ADESA's auction business is expected to enhance Carvana's profitability by transitioning towards a marketplace model, which offers higher margins compared to its traditional retail operations.
Competitive Advantage: Carvana outperforms competitors like CarMax and AutoNation in terms of gross margin and profit per unit, bolstered by its strong online platform.
Cost Efficiency: The company has successfully reduced over $1.1 billion in annual selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses, demonstrating a commitment to improving operational efficiency.
Financial Flexibility: Carvana secured a deal with creditors to extend loan maturities, providing the company with greater financial flexibility to navigate future challenges.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on NYSE:CVNA above the $116.00-$118.00 range.
Upside Potential: With an upside target of $230.00-$240.00, investors should consider Carvana's strategic shift, competitive advantages, and improved financial flexibility as key drivers for potential stock appreciation.
📈🚗 Carvana is driving towards profitability—consider it for a potentially lucrative investment opportunity! #CVNA #UsedCars 🚗🚀
Life Time Group (LTH) AnalysisCompany Overview:
Life Time Group operates health and wellness clubs across the U.S. and Canada. Recently, the company completed a $40 million sale-leaseback transaction, which CEO Bahram Akradi views as a strategic move to strengthen the balance sheet and drive future growth.
Key Highlights:
Strategic Financial Moves: The $40 million sale-leaseback transaction aims to improve financial flexibility and support expansion efforts.
Positive Cash Flow: Akradi projects that Life Time will achieve positive cash flow by Q2, even after accounting for capital expenditures.
Debt Reduction: The company plans to reduce its net debt leverage ratio to 2.0 by year-end, which could positively impact its stock price.
Insider Confidence: CEO Bahram Akradi purchased $654,000 worth of stock at $16.76, contributing to a total of $3.2 million in insider purchases over the past year, signaling strong confidence in the company's future.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on NYSE:LTH above the $20.00-$21.00 range.
Upside Potential: With an upside target of $35.00-$36.00, investors should consider Life Time Group's strategic financial moves, expected positive cash flow, and insider confidence as key factors for potential stock appreciation.
📈💪 Keep an eye on Life Time Group for a healthy investment opportunity! #LTH #WellnessClubs 🏋️♂️🚀