US30 | Consolidation or Breakout? Key Levels to Watch! 📊 US30 (Dow Jones) Technical Analysis – February 20, 2025 📉📈
The US30 has been consolidating around the pivot zone (44,404 - 44,550), showing signs of a potential breakout.
🔹 Bullish Scenario:
If the price stabilizes above 44,560, we can expect a continuation toward 44,756 and 44,926.
A breakout above 45,000 could trigger further bullish momentum toward 45,323.
🔹 Bearish Scenario:
A 4H close below 44,404 may signal weakness, with downside targets at 44,204 and 43,763.
If 43,763 fails to hold, further decline toward 43,212 and 42,769 is possible.
📊 Key Levels to Watch:
🔹 Pivot Zone: 44404 - 44550
🔹 Resistance Levels: 44756 | 44926 | 45323
🔹 Support Levels: 44204 | 43763 | 43212
💬 Will US30 break 44,926 and rally higher, or will it pull back for a correction? Drop your predictions below! 👇🔥
Stocks
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.20.2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇰🇷📉 Samsung Share Cancellation: Samsung Electronics plans to cancel over 57 million shares, including 50.1 million common shares and 6.9 million preferred shares, on February 20. This move aims to reduce the total number of issued shares without decreasing the company's capital.
📊 Key Data Releases:
📅 Thursday, Feb 20:
🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 19.4; Previous: 44.3.
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 214K; Previous: 213K.
📈 Leading Index (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: -0.1%; Previous: -0.1%.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
META’S Q4 2024—$META RIDES AI AND ADS TO VICTORYMETA’S Q4 2024— NASDAQ:META RIDES AI AND ADS TO VICTORY
(1/9)
Good evening, Tradingview! Meta’s Q4 2024 earnings landed—$48.4B revenue, up 21% YoY, topping estimates 📈🔥. A 16.5% stock rally seals the deal. Let’s unravel NASDAQ:META ’s big win! 🚀
(2/9) – AD & AI POWER
• Q4 Revenue: $48.4B, 21% jump from last year 💥
• Profits: Nearly $21B—up 49%—efficiency shines 📊
• Ad Surge: Biggest driver, fueling the cash flow
AI’s humming, ads are king—Meta’s on fire!
(3/9) – KEY WINS
• AI Spend: $60B+ lined up for ‘25 🌍
• Users: 3.35B daily logins—record crowd 🚗
• Meta AI: 700M monthly fans—AI’s buzzing 🌟
Stock’s tearing up the charts—hot streak alert!
(4/9) – SECTOR SMACKDOWN
• Forward P/E: ~28x, leaner than Amazon’s 33x
• Ad Game: 21% growth beats Google’s 12% 📈
• User Pull: Social king—rivals can’t touch it
NASDAQ:META ’s a growth beast—hidden value or hype? 🌍
(5/9) – RISKS ON THE HORIZON
• Regs: EU and U.S. eyeing fines—trouble brews? 🏛️
• AI Bet: $60B spend—payoff’s a question ⚠️
• Saturation: 3.35B users tough to top 📉
High stakes in this tech showdown!
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Ad Muscle: $46.8B in Q4—ad king rules 🌟
• AI Edge: 700M Meta AI users—future’s here 🔍
• Cash Pile: $52B free flow in ‘24 🚦
NASDAQ:META ’s flexing serious firepower!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: Metaverse burns SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:5B , AI costs stack 💸
• Opportunities: Threads hits 100M+, AI ads shine 🌍
Can NASDAQ:META spin risks into wins?
(8/9) – NASDAQ:META ’s Q4 rocks—what’s the vibe?
1️⃣ Bullish—AI and ads keep it roaring.
2️⃣ Neutral—Growth’s cool, risks hover.
3️⃣ Bearish—Big spends clip its wings.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
Meta’s Q4 dazzles—$48.4B revenue, $21B profit, AI soaring 🌍🪙. 28x P/E vs. peers, but growth’s electric. Regs and AI costs loom—gem or gamble?
APPLOVIN’S Q4 2024—$APP BLASTS OFF WITH AI-AD SURGEAPPLOVIN’S Q4 2024— NASDAQ:APP BLASTS OFF WITH AI-AD SURGE
(1/9)
Good evening, Tradingview! AppLovin’s Q4 2024 earnings hit—$1.37B revenue, up 44% YoY, crushing $1.26B estimates 📈🔥. AI-powered AXON drives a 37% stock pop. Let’s unpack NASDAQ:APP ’s monster quarter! 🚀
(2/9) – REVENUE & EARNINGS
• Q4 Revenue: $1.37B, +44% YoY ($953.3M Q4 ‘23) 💥
• Ad Revenue: $999.5M, +73% YoY
• Apps Revenue: $373.3M, -1% YoY 📊
• EPS: $1.73, beats $1.24 est.
• Net Income: $599.2M, +248% YoY
(3/9) – BIG MOVES
• Stock Surge: +37% post-earnings (Feb 13) 🌍
• Buybacks: $2.1B retired 25.7M shares in ‘24 🚗
• Debt Play: $3.55B notes issued Nov ‘24 💸
• Q1 ‘25 Guide: $1.355-1.385B, tops $1.32B est.
(4/9) – SECTOR SHOWDOWN
• Market Cap: $175B (Feb 13) 🌟
• Trailing P/E: 116 vs. TTD (50), META (33)
• Growth: 44% YoY beats TTD (26%), META (19%)
• 1Y Stock: +1,000%, 2Y: +3,000%
Premium price, growth screams value!
(5/9) – RISKS TO FLAG
• Valuation: 116 P/E—high stakes, no misses 📉
• Debt: $3.51B vs. $567.6M cash—leverage looms ⚠️
• AI Rivals: Google, Meta eye AXON’s turf 🏛️
• Regs & Economy: Ad spend cuts lurk
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Growth: 44% revenue, $599M profit soars 🌟
• Margins: 62% EBITDA, $2.1B FCF in ‘24 🔍
• AXON: 73% ad surge—AI’s the champ 🚦
NASDAQ:APP ’s a profit powerhouse!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: Apps dip (-1%), $3.51B debt 💸
• Opportunities: E-commerce ads, AI edge, acquisitions 🌍
Can NASDAQ:APP turn risks into riches?
(8/9) – NASDAQ:APP ’s Q4 stuns—where’s it headed?
1️⃣ Bullish—AI keeps it soaring.
2️⃣ Neutral—Growth holds, risks balance.
3️⃣ Bearish—Valuation bites back.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
AppLovin’s Q4 dazzles—$1.37B revenue, $599M profit, stock blazing 🌍🪙. High P/E, but AI growth shines. Debt and rivals loom—gem or peak?
The Inside Out InvestorThere is a common misconception that investing in stocks is always stressful and emotionally overwhelming. Many people think that this activity is only available to extremely resilient people or crazy people. In fact, if you know the answers to three key questions, investing becomes a rather boring activity. Let me remind you of them below:
1. Which stocks to choose?
2. At what price should the trade be made?
3. In what volume?
As for me, most of the time, I'm just in waiting mode. First, I wait for the company's business to start showing sustainable growth dynamics in profits and other fundamental indicators. Then, I wait for a sell-off of strong company shares at unreasonably low prices. Of course, this requires a lot of patience and a positive outlook on the future. That's why I believe that being young is one of the key advantages of being a beginner investor. The younger you are, the more time you have to wait.
However, we still have to get to this boring state. And if you've embarked on this long journey, expect to encounter many emotions that will test your strength. To help me understand them, I came up with the following map.
Next I will comment on each of its elements from left to right.
Free Cash horizontal line (from 0% to 100%) - X axis
When you first open and fund a brokerage account, your Free Cash is equal to 100% of the account. Then it will gradually decrease as you buy shares. If Free Cash is 0%, then all your money in the account was invested in shares. In short, it is a scale of how much your portfolio is loaded with stocks.
Vertical line Alpha - Y axis
Alpha is the ratio of the change in your portfolio to the change in an alternative portfolio that you do not own but use as a reference (in other words, a benchmark). For example, such a benchmark could be an ETF (exchange-traded fund) on the S&P500 index if you invest in wide US market stocks. Buying an ETF does not require any effort on your part as a manager, so it is useful to compare the performance of such an asset with the performance of your portfolio and calculate Alpha. In this example, it is the ratio of your portfolio's return to the return of the S&P 500 ETF. At the level where Alpha is zero, there is a horizontal Free Cash line. Above this line is positive Alpha (in which case you are outperforming the broader market), below zero is negative Alpha (in which case your portfolio is outperforming the benchmark). Let me clarify that the portfolio yield includes the financial result for both open and closed positions.
Fear of the button
This is the emotion that blocks the sending of an order to buy shares. Being captivated by this emotion, you will be afraid to press this button, realizing that investing in shares does not guarantee a positive result at all. In other words, you may lose some of your money irretrievably. This fear is absolutely justified. If you feel this way, consider the size of your stock investment account and the percentage amount you are willing to lose. Remember to diversify your portfolio. If you can't find a balance between account size, acceptable loss, and diversification, don't press the button. Come back to her when you're ready.
Enthusiasm
At this stage, you have a high share of Free Cash, and you also have your first open positions in stocks. Your Alpha is positive. You are not afraid to press the button, but there is a certain excitement about the future result. The state of enthusiasm is quite fragile and can quickly turn into a state of FOMO if Alpha moves into the negative zone. Therefore, it is critical to continue learning the chosen strategy at this stage. A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.
FOMO
FOMO is a common acronym used to describe a psychological condition known as fear of missing out. In the stock market, this manifests itself as fear of missing out. This condition is typical for a portfolio with a high proportion of Free Cash and negative Alpha. As the benchmark's return outpaces your portfolio's return, you will be in a nervous state. The main worry will be that you didn't buy the stocks that are currently the growth leaders. You will be tempted to deviate from your chosen strategy and take a chance on buying something on the off chance. To get rid of this condition, you need to understand that the stock market has existed for hundreds of years, and thousands of companies trade on it. Every year, new companies emerge, as well as new investment opportunities. Remind yourself that you are not here for one million dollar deal, but for systematic work with opportunities that will always be there.
Zen
The most desirable state of an investor is when he understands all the details of the chosen strategy and has effective experience in its application. This is expressed in positive Alpha and excellent mood. Taking the time to manage your portfolio, developing habits and a disciplined approach will bring satisfaction and the feeling that you are on the right track. At this stage, it is important to maintain this state, and not to chase after thrills.
Disappointment
This stage is a mirror of the Zen state. It can develop from the FOMO stage, especially if you break your own rules and invest on luck. It can also be caused by a sharp deterioration in the condition of a portfolio, which was doing well in the Zen state. If everything is clear in the first case, and you just need to stop acting weird , then in the second situation you should remember why you ended up in a state of Zen. Investments are always a series of profitable and unprofitable trades. However, losing trades cannot be considered a failure if they were made in accordance with the principles of the chosen strategy. Just keep following the accepted rules to win in the long run. Also remember that Mr. Market is crazy enough to offer prices that seem absurd to you. Yes, this can negatively affect your Alpha, but at the same time provide opportunities to open new positions according to the chosen strategy.
Euphoria
Another way out of the Zen state is called Euphoria. This is typical dizziness from success. At this stage you have little Free Cash, a large share of stocks in your portfolio and phenomenally positive Alpha. You feel like a king and lose your composure. That is why this stage is marked in red. In a state of euphoria, you may feel like everything you touch turns to gold. You feel the desire to take a risk and play for luck. You don't want to close positions with good profits. Furthermore, you think you can close at the highs and make even more money. You are deviating from the chosen strategy, which is fraught with major negative consequences. It only takes a few non-systemic decisions to push your Alpha into the negative zone and find yourself in a state of disappointment. If your ego doesn't stop there, the decline may continue.
Tilt
A prolonged state of disappointment or a rapid fall of Alpha from the Euphoria stage can lead to the most negative psycho-emotional state called Tilt. This term is widely used in the game of poker, but can also be used in investments. While in this state, the investor does everything out of strategy, his actions are chaotic and in many ways aggressive. He thinks the stock market owes him something. The investor cannot stop his irrational actions, trying to regain his former success or get out of a series of failures in the shortest possible time. This usually ends in big losses. It is better to inform your loved ones in advance that such a condition exists. Don't be embarrassed by this, even if you think you are immune to such situations. A person in a state of tilt withdraws into himself and acts in a state of affect. Therefore, it is significant to bring him out of this state and show that the outside world exists and has its own unique value.
Now let's talk about your expectations, as they largely determine your attitude towards investing. Never turn your positive expectations into a benchmark. The stock market is an element that is absolutely indifferent to our forecasts. Even strong companies can fall in price if there is a shortage of liquidity in the market. In times of crisis, everyone suffers, but the most prepared suffer the least. Therefore, the main task of a smart investor is to work on himself until the moment he presses the coveted button. There will always be a chance to do this. As I said, the market will not disappear tomorrow. But to use this chance wisely, you need to be prepared. This means that you should have an answer to all three questions above. Then you will definitely catch your Zen.
AMD: Hit rock bottom. Huge upside potential from here.Advanced Micro Devices Inc turned neutral on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.032, MACD = -2.460, ADX = 22.524) signaling a potential reversal of the long term bearish trend. This month the price hit the 1M MA50 and if it managed to close the 1M candle over it, we expect to have a market bottom formed much like October 2022 and April 2018. A rally of at least +275% started following both of those bottoms. We believe the risk of buying here is low and the reward high and thus turn bullish (TP = 390.00).
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The Convoluted Wellness Movement Say what you will about RFK Jr, but his ideas, if implemented even in some small ways, would have a drastic impact on the psychopharmaceutical industry. I'm a therapist myself, and I can't tell you how many teenagers are placed on SSRIs and ADHD medication without careful consideration for long term effects. Not that these medications are poisonous - they can be very helpful for many. I do think they are overprescribed, however, and can lead to lifelong dependency if not used carefully or with intent. While I don't think psychedelics would be great for teenagers and their developing brains (says the guy who took mushrooms for the first time at 17), I do think they are a powerful alternative, and do not require as much consistent dosing. The pharmaceutical industry will try to push microdosing, so as to make greater profits.
Do I think psychedelics will be implemented as mental health treatment successfully on the first go-around? Not necessarily. Do I think that certain people with a family history of psychosis and mood disorders should avoid psychedelics? Probably.
The companies at the forefront of this research could be in a decent position to spike in value. They may be eventually bought out by other entities, of course, or simply lose their speculative value. Maybe this is already happening. I'm wondering if CYBIN in particular, is forming a bottom here. It does look trapped in an endless wedge, with every pump getting aggressively sold. However, volume is steadily increasing week by week, which could indicate some hidden accumulation.
MindMedicine may be positioned a little better, from a technical perspective. I've bought back into both MindMedicine and Cybin equally over the last day or two. Not a big position, but perhaps worth the gamble. Each could easily decline by 50% or more from here. MNDMD at least seems to have a healthier chart.
The bigger concern is whether these companies' finances can withstand more time before regulatory clarity, as well as governmental stability as a whole. Things are looking very strange in the U.S. Either way, there is a movement (public or not) towards homeopathic medicine.
I guess we'll see. This investment is entirely speculative, and seems just as likely to trend towards zero as it is to explode 10x in value.
This is my personal opinion, and is meant for personal use only - not as financial advice. These stocks have relatively low volume and are prone to wild price swings.
AIRBNB’S Q4 2024—$ABNB SOARS WITH RECORD GROWTHAIRBNB’S Q4 2024— NASDAQ:ABNB SOARS WITH RECORD GROWTH
(1/9)
Good morning, Tradingview Fam! Airbnb’s Q4 2024 earnings dropped—$2.5B revenue, up 12% YoY, topping $2.42B estimates 📈🔥. Nights booked hit 111M, and a $14% stock surge shows the market’s love. Let’s unpack NASDAQ:ABNB ’s big win! 🚀
(2/9) – REVENUE & EARNINGS
• Q4 Revenue: $2.5B, +12% YoY ($2.2B Q4 ‘23) 💥
• Net Income: $461M vs. -$349M loss last year
• EPS: $0.73, beats $0.61 est. 📊
• Adj. EBITDA: $765M, +4% YoY, 30.8% margin
• GBV: $17.6B, +13% YoY
Travel demand’s fueling the fire!
(3/9) – KEY HIGHLIGHTS
• Stock Surge: +14% post-earnings (Feb 14) 🌍
• Buybacks: $838M in Q4, $3.4B for 2024 🚗
• New Ventures: $200-250M investment in travel services for May ‘25 ✅
NASDAQ:ABNB ’s betting big on growth beyond stays!
(4/9) – SECTOR SHOWDOWN
• Market Cap: ~$102B, Stock: $161.2 🌟
• Trailing P/E: 48.87 vs. BKNG (23), EXPE (15)
• Outperforms: 12% revenue growth beats BKNG (6%), EXPE (2%)
Premium valuation, but $4.5B free cash flow says it’s earned!
(5/9) – RISKS TO WATCH
• Economy: Retail sales dip hints travel cuts 📉
• Regs: NYC bans, Barcelona threats loom 🏛️
• Competition: BKNG, EXPE, hotels fight back ⚔️
• Costs: $200-250M spend may squeeze Q1 margins ⚠️
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Growth: 12% revenue, $461M profit shines 🌟
• Cash: SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:9B net, $4.5B FCF powers buybacks 🔍
• Tech: 535+ upgrades boost scale 🚦
NASDAQ:ABNB ’s a travel titan with muscle!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: High P/E (48.87), Q1 margin dip 💸
• Opportunities: New services ( SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:1B + potential), LatAm/Asia boom 🌍
Can NASDAQ:ABNB turn expansion into gold?
(8/9) – NASDAQ:ABNB ’s Q4 rocks—where’s it headed?
1️⃣ Bullish—Growth keeps climbing.
2️⃣ Neutral—Solid, but risks hover.
3️⃣ Bearish—Valuation caps it.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
Airbnb’s Q4 dazzles—$2.5B revenue, stock soaring, new bets in play 🌍. Premium P/E vs. peers, but growth screams value. Risks lurk—regs, economy. Gem or peak?
$SHOP’S Q4 2024—E-COMMERCE KING OR OVERHYPED HUSTLE?NYSE:SHOP ’S Q4 2024—E-COMMERCE KING OR OVERHYPED HUSTLE?
(1/9)
Hey Tradingview crew! Shopify’s Q4 2024 is dropping jaws 📈🔥! $2.81B in revenue—31% YoY blast—$94.5B GMV, and a fat cash flow flex. Is NYSE:SHOP the champ or just flexing? Let’s rip it open! 🚀
(2/9) – REVENUE & EARNINGS BLOWOUT
• Q4 Revenue: $2.81B, +31% YoY—smoked $2.73B est. 💥
• Subscription: $666M, +27%
• Merchant Solutions: $2.15B, +33%
• EPS: $0.44, edged $0.43 est. 📊
• FCF: $611M, 22% margin— GETTEX:25M over est.
NYSE:SHOP ’s cash machine is humming!
(3/9) – BIG WINS
• GMV: $94.5B, +26%—fastest since ‘21 🚗
• Full Year: $8.88B revenue, +25.78% 🌍
• 3-Month Trials: New twist for Q1 ‘25 subs ✅
• Enterprise: 114 deals in 10 quarters—B2B up 132%!
X is buzzing— NYSE:SHOP ’s scaling like a beast!
(4/9) – SECTOR SMACKDOWN
• Market Cap: ~$151.5B, P/E 81, P/S 14.3 🌟
• Vs. NASDAQ:BIGC : Lagging, $CRM/ NASDAQ:ADBE : Broader focus
• NYSE:SHOP ’s 31% growth smokes peers—$94.5B GMV flexes
Pricey, but is it a steal for this hustle? X debates!
(5/9) – RISKS TO DODGE
• Amazon & WooCommerce: Claws out for NYSE:SHOP ’s turf 📉
• Economy: Slowdown could choke GMV ⚠️
• Tariffs: Duty hikes loom— NYSE:SHOP ’s got tools, but ouch!
• Costs: Intern army in ‘25—cash burn risk?
X says watch out—trouble’s lurking!
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Revenue: 31% YoY—$2.81B Q4 fury 🌟
• FCF: 22% Q4 margin, 18% ‘24 🔍
• Global: 33% GMV growth, EMEA +37% 🚦
NYSE:SHOP ’s an e-commerce titan—X can’t look away!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: High P/E 81, merchant reliance 💸
• Opportunities: Enterprise boom, AI tools, price hikes 🌍
Can NYSE:SHOP turn hype into gold? X wants to know!
(8/9) – NYSE:SHOP ’s Q4 is fire—where’s it headed?
1️⃣ Bullish—$151.5B king keeps slaying
2️⃣ Neutral—Growth’s hot, but risks bite
3️⃣ Bearish—Valuation’s a trap, crash incoming
Vote now—let’s brawl it out! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL BLAST
NYSE:SHOP ’s Q4 is a $2.81B thunderclap—GMV soaring, cash flowing 🌍. But competition and costs lurk. Undervalued rocket or overhyped bubble?
Arista Networks Dips 4% Premarket Despite Strong Q4 FinancialsArista Networks (NASDAQ: NYSE:ANET ) saw a 4% dip in premarket trading despite delivering better-than-expected revenue and earnings in its latest quarterly report. The stock's recent movement raises questions about market sentiment and potential buying opportunities.
Strong Revenue and Earnings Growth
Arista Networks, a leader in cloud networking, reported a fourth-quarter revenue of $1.93 billion, reflecting a 7% year-over-year increase. This beat analyst estimates and demonstrated the company’s ability to sustain growth even amid economic uncertainty.
Net earnings surged to $830.1 million (65 cents per share), compared to $664.3 million (52 cents per share) in the prior year. These strong financials reflect Arista’s continued dominance in the cloud networking industry, particularly as it pushes further into AI-driven initiatives.
Additionally, Arista Networks provided an optimistic forecast for the first quarter of 2024, expecting revenue between $1.93 billion and $1.97 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations. This suggests that despite short-term price volatility, the company’s long-term growth remains intact.
Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings
Despite the positive earnings report, NYSE:ANET faced early selling pressure. However, analysts remain bullish on the stock, with an average "Buy" rating from 15 analysts. The 12-month price forecast stands at $108.38, representing a slight downside of -3.12% from the latest price, indicating that the market might already be factoring in Arista’s growth potential.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, NYSE:ANET ’s premarket drop of 4.11% has placed its Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47, signaling that the stock is approaching oversold territory but not yet at extreme levels.
Currently, the stock is trading above key moving averages (MA), suggesting that the broader uptrend remains intact. However, the dip brings NYSE:ANET close to its one-month low, a temporary support level that traders should watch closely. If selling pressure continues, a break below this level could lead to further downside.
That said, this retracement could also be a strategic move to sweep liquidity and attract demand for a potential rebound. Investors should watch for price stabilization and confirmation of renewed buying interest before making any decisive moves.
Conclusion
Despite the early sell-off, Arista Networks’ strong fundamentals, growing revenue, and positive long-term outlook position it as a solid investment choice. The recent dip may be an opportunity for traders to capitalize on a short-term pullback before the stock resumes its upward trajectory. As always, monitoring key technical levels and broader market trends will be crucial in assessing NYSE:ANET ’s next move.
TESLA ($TSLA) "Long" -$600-Tesla (TSLA) on the 4-hour chart.
First thing to mention: Weekly Close in 2days about might print a 2nd Doji.
Key Support and Resistance Levels :
The price is currently testing a crucial support level around $350.
Orange Block, 15min unfilled gap. If we take it out and don't lose Cyan trendline I might even add to the trade.
Dotted Cyan lines, 4h resistances
Price might go to $470 or even new high then do retracement to stop out late Longs.
At $620, Projection of past price. I'll be 90% out before this.
If the price breaks above the cyan trend line and holds above $385 it could signal a bullish reversal.
Conversely, if the price fails to hold above these levels and drops below $350, it may continue its downward trend.
Keep an eye on volume during any breakout attempts. Higher volume can confirm the strength of the move.
Monitor key psychological levels like $400 and $500 for further confirmation.
SPX In Limbo - Which way will it break?SPX in Limbo – Will It Break Up or Down? | SPX Market Analysis 19 Feb 2025
Still waiting. Yep, that’s where we are.
The market is about as exciting as watching paint dry, but this is not the time to get impatient. As much as I’d love to jump into a trade just to feel productive, I know better—waiting for the right entry beats chasing the wrong one.
Let’s break it down while we sip on tea and pretend to be Zen masters of market patience.
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SPX Deeper Dive Analysis:
Why Patience is Everything in Trading
There’s an old trading rule that never fails—the market will always move… eventually. But right now, it’s in one of those frustrating, indecisive moods where:
Nothing is confirming (so forcing a trade is a bad idea)
It’s stuck between two key levels (meaning we wait for the breakout or breakdown)
Volume is sluggish (which means false moves are more likely)
Still Watching Two Scenarios
☑ Scenario #1 – The Bullish Breakout Entry
Needs price to confirm above key resistance
No fakeouts—just clean, strong momentum
Only then do I consider a bullish trade
☑ Scenario #2 – The Bearish Reversal Entry
Needs clear rejection at resistance
No weak, choppy movements—just a solid confirmation
Only then do I take a bearish setup
Why Forcing Trades is a Losing Game
Let’s be honest—waiting is boring. But do you know what’s worse? Jumping into a trade just because you're impatient… and then watching it immediately go against you.
Every trader, at some point, has thought:
"It looks like it’s going to move, maybe I should enter early…" (Nope.)
"I don’t want to miss the move…" (You won’t—if you follow the plan.)
"Other traders are jumping in—should I?" (Nope. They’re probably wrong.)
The right trade at the wrong time is still the wrong trade.
What’s Next?
✅ Stay patient—the market will tip its hand soon enough
✅ Wait for clear confirmation—not “I think this might be it” confirmation
✅ Don’t trade out of boredom—trade because the setup is 100% valid
📌 Final Takeaway? Patience = profit. I’m still waiting, tea in hand, and when the market finally makes its move, I’ll be ready.
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Fun Fact
📢 Did you know?
The stock market used to take 5 months to process a trade before the 1970s. Now? It happens in milliseconds—but traders still struggle to wait a few hours for the right setup.
💡 The Lesson?
Patience has always been a trader’s best tool. Some things never change.
BILI Projects to $100Bilibili Inc. is a leading provider of online entertainment tailored for the youth of the People's Republic of China. The company boasts a diverse array of digital offerings, including professionally produced user-generated videos, mobile gaming experiences, and enhanced services like live streaming, occupationally created videos, audio dramas on Maoer, and comics available through Bilibili Comic. Additionally, Bilibili offers advertising solutions, IP derivatives, and various other services. The company is also involved in business and technology development, e-commerce, and the distribution of videos, comics, and games. Established in 2009, Bilibili Inc. is based in Shanghai, China.
Bilibili is currently priced at $20.81, indicating it may be undervalued according to discounted cash flow analysis, which suggests a fair value of $28.84. Although there has been notable insider selling recently, the stock remains 28% below its estimated fair value and is projected to achieve profitability within the next three years, surpassing average market growth rates. While the anticipated revenue growth of 10.2% per year is not as robust as one might hope, it still outpaces the overall US market's growth rate of 8.9%.
NVIDIA Rejected on the most important Resistance of all.Last time we looked at NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) was just 20 days ago (January 29, see chart below) but we managed to get the exact bottom buy opportunity on the 1W MA50:
As the stock reacted with an immediate and relentless rally of 10 straight green 1D candles, it hit yesterday its first hurdle, the All Time High (ATH) Lower Highs trend-line and closed in red.
This Lower Highs trend-line is historically very important as every time a similar technical structure broke in the past 2 years, a strong rally followed. The early ones were stronger, which is natural to expect as the company was recovering from the 2022 Inflation Crisis and had enormous room to grow. On a side-note, the 1D RSI rebounded on its 34.00 Support, where the stock's last two bottoms were priced.
As a result, we believe that if NVIDIA breaks and closes above the current Lower Highs trend-line, it should at least repeat the last rally from its bottom (+68.69%), which translates to a $190 medium-term Target.
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Alibaba Shares (BABA) Hit 12-Month High Ahead of Earnings ReportAlibaba Shares (BABA) Hit 12-Month High Ahead of Earnings Report
Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba is set to release its quarterly earnings report on 20 February. The Wall Street Journal cites optimistic analyst estimates, projecting gross revenue of 279.03 billion yuan (approximately $38 billion), up from 260.35 billion yuan a year ago and 236.50 billion yuan in the previous quarter.
Investor sentiment has been buoyed by Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma’s presence at an event with Chinese President Xi Jinping. According to Barron’s, this signals government efforts to restore confidence in the private sector, particularly in technology. At present, such factors may be having a greater impact on the stock market than geopolitical headlines or Trump’s tariff policies.
These and other drivers—including a recent partnership between Alibaba and Apple to integrate AI features into the iPhone 16 series—have fuelled bullish momentum. As a result, Alibaba shares (BABA) have surged nearly 20% in February, reaching their highest level since February last year.
Technical Analysis of Alibaba Shares (BABA)
In our previous analysis on 29 January, we noted that BABA’s price movements were forming key levels for an Andrews' Pitchfork pattern, indicating a bullish outlook.
Currently, the price has:
→ Surpassed the October high near $118.
→ Gained bullish momentum after consolidating around the psychological $100 level.
The RSI indicator signals overbought conditions, suggesting a potential correction. However, given the strong news flow, any pullback may be shallow.
Alibaba (BABA) Stock Forecasts
According to BarChart, after years of underperformance, many investors are looking at China with renewed optimism for 2025. Hedge fund Appaloosa Management’s founder and president, David Tepper—whose net worth stands at $21.5 billion—recently acquired Alibaba shares, as per the latest 13F filings.
He may believe that the Chinese stock market is significantly undervalued, based on the “Warren Buffett Indicator,” which compares a country's total market capitalisation to its GDP. A ratio below 100 suggests undervaluation, while a higher figure indicates overvaluation. Currently, China’s market cap-to-GDP ratio stands below 70%, compared to over 200% for the US.
Tepper is not alone in his bullish stance. According to TipRanks:
→ 7 out of 8 analysts surveyed recommend buying BABA shares.
→ The average 12-month price target for BABA is $129.13.
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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.19.2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇺🇸🗣️ President Trump's Address: At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, February 18, President Trump is scheduled to deliver a speech that may provide insights into upcoming policy directions.
📱🍏 Apple Product Launch: Apple CEO Tim Cook has announced a new product launch set for February 19, 2025. Speculations suggest it could be the iPhone SE 4, featuring a 6.1-inch OLED display and an A18 chip with Apple Intelligence.
📊 Key Data Releases:
🏠 Housing Starts (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 1.390M; Previous: 1.499M.
📄 FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 PM ET): Detailed insights into the Federal Reserve's policy discussions from the January meeting.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
$TSLA poised for an EASY rise to $400 and beyond.BUY NASDAQ:TSLA NOW
A falling wedge is a chart pattern suggesting a probable rise in a stock's price. This bullish pattern emerges during a downtrend, as the price range tightens and the trend lines converge.
RSI: 35.02 as of 02/10/2025
NASDAQ:TSLA 's price began 2025 at $403.84. As of today, it stands at $350.73, reflecting a -13% decrease since the start of the year. By the end of 2025, it's projected to reach $692 , a year-to-year increase of +71%. This marks a +97% rise from today’s price. Mid-2025 predictions place Tesla at $477 . In the first half of 2026, the price is expected to climb to $805, and by year-end, add another $163 to close at $968, which is +176% from the current price.
-Month Low $350.51
Low $350.51
Pivot Point 1st Support Point $346.59
Pivot Point 2nd Support Point $342.46
Price 1 Standard Deviation Support $334.84
Pivot Point 3rd Support Point $334.40
Thank you
$42 TARGET $RXRX BUY NOW!The triple bottom chart pattern usually emerges after an extended downtrend with bears dominating the market. While the first bottom might reflect regular price fluctuations, the second bottom signals that the bulls are gathering strength and gearing up for a potential reversal. The third bottom demonstrates robust support, suggesting that bears may surrender when the price surpasses resistance levels.
ALSO: Investing in Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) offers intriguing possibilities for several reasons:
Innovative Technology: NASDAQ:RXRX utilizes artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning to expedite drug discovery. Their BioHive-2 supercomputer, powered by Nvidia AI chips, is among the most powerful accelerated computing systems globally.
Partnerships: NASDAQ:RXRX has formed alliances with major tech and healthcare leaders, including Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ), which invested $50 million into its operations. These collaborations aim to streamline drug discovery, making it faster and more cost-effective.
Promising Pipeline: NASDAQ:RXRX boasts a strong lineup of drug candidates, and their technology has already shown promising results. Their merger with Exscientia, another biotech company focused on AI-driven drug discovery, has created a more robust, vertically integrated platform.
Potential for High Returns: While investing in NASDAQ:RXRX involves risks, it also holds the potential for significant returns. The company's innovative approach could transform the healthcare industry, making it a potential "10-bagger" (a stock that increases tenfold in value).
Long-term Vision: RXRX seeks to shorten the drug discovery process from years to months and significantly reduce costs. This long-term vision could lead to substantial growth if successful.
SMCI: Rejection on the 1W MA50 will be the last buy opportunity.Super Micro Computer has turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 76.279, MACD = 3.600, ADX = 40.488) as a result of the relentless rally of the past 2 weeks but on 1W (RSI = 57.515) it just turned bullish, which is indicative of the long way it has to cover until it makes new ATH again following last year's accounting discrepancies. The price is about to test the 1W MA50 as a Resistance, which under normal circumastances of Bull Cycle, it is a support. A potential rejection there, should provide the last buy opportunity that will test the 1D MA50 as a Support. We remain long on SMCI, next TP = 95.00.
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Tripled power mover in 2 hours with 3 Buy spots along the way!Power 💪 $3.05 to $9.40 in under 2 hours reaching over +200% 🚀 NASDAQ:GCL
Wanted to buy at $5 but volume wasn't safe enough, it pops and sets up for another good entry, wanted to buy $6.21 but it moved beyond it, kept waiting for a dip buy around $6.20 but all it gave was $6.50 several times so had 2 buy orders placed at the same time one for $6.21 on the possible dip and one for $7.31 for the possible breakout.
It triggered $7.31 and kept going, all 15min candlesticks green so I kept alerting new buys for the big fat win!
A Bearish Case for Diageo: Breaking Critical Support LevelsThe descending triangle pattern on Diageo’s weekly chart presents a strong bearish signal, suggesting that the stock may be poised for a deeper decline. Historically, descending triangles indicate mounting selling pressure, and with price action nearing critical support levels, the risk of a breakdown is significantly high.
Currently, Diageo is approaching key lows last seen in 2020, around 2050, a level that previously acted as a strong support zone. However, the confluence of technical factors suggests this support may not hold:
1️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement Confluence – Just below 2050, the 2026 level aligns with a key long-term Fibonacci retracement. While this could act as a temporary support zone, the broader technical setup suggests further weakness.
2️⃣ The Psychological 2000 Level – Round numbers often serve as psychological barriers in the market, but with a descending triangle breakdown, this level may fail to provide meaningful support.
3️⃣ Measured Move Target: 1875 – When analysing the height of the descending triangle pattern, its projected move suggests a breakdown well beyond the above-mentioned support levels. A clean breach of 2050 could see a swift move lower, with 1885 emerging as the next major target.
With the weight of these technical indicators aligning, the path of least resistance appears to be downward. Unless Diageo finds an unexpected catalyst for recovery, breaking these key levels could trigger further selling momentum, forcing the stock into deeper correction territory. Traders and investors should approach this setup with caution, as the evidence strongly favours a bearish continuation. 🚨📉
N.B. Understanding the Descending Triangle Pattern
A descending triangle is a bearish chart pattern that forms when the price action is characterized by a series of lower highs converging towards a horizontal support level. This pattern signals increasing selling pressure, as buyers fail to push prices higher while sellers continuously drive prices downward.
Key Features of a Descending Triangle
1️⃣ Horizontal Support Line – The price consistently finds support at a particular level, creating a flat base.
2️⃣ Lower Highs – Price fails to reach previous highs, forming a descending trendline.
3️⃣ Breakout Expectation – A descending triangle typically breaks downward once sellers overwhelm buyers at the support level.
4️⃣ Volume Decline & Expansion – Volume usually declines as the pattern develops and increases significantly at the breakout.
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How to Measure the Descending Triangle
To predict a potential price target, traders measure the height of the triangle and project it downward from the breakout point.
✅ Step 1: Identify the Pattern
• Find the flat support level where price repeatedly bounces.
• Draw a descending trendline connecting the lower highs.
✅ Step 2: Measure the Height
• Take the distance from the highest point of the triangle (initial peak before lower highs start forming) to the horizontal support level.
• Example: If the high of the triangle is 2675 and the support level is 2275, the height is 400 points.
✅ Step 3: Project the Breakdown Target
• Once price breaks below the support level, subtract the measured height from the breakdown point.
• Example: If the breakdown occurs at 2275, then:
o 2275 - 400 = 1875 (expected price target).
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Confirming the Breakout
📉 Bearish Confirmation:
• A daily or weekly close below support, ideally with an increase in volume.
• Retests of the broken support level that now act as resistance.
⚠️ False Breakouts:
• Sometimes, price may briefly dip below support and reverse higher.
• Confirmation is key before entering trades based on the descending triangle pattern.
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Final Thoughts
A descending triangle is a powerful bearish signal, particularly when seen in downtrends. Traders use it to identify potential breakdown opportunities and set realistic price targets. Risk management is crucial, as false breakouts can occur, and waiting for confirmation increases the probability of a successful trade.
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Overtrading Chaos: Classroom Insights & Quick FixesWatching my students get caught up in the whirlwind of overtrading was like watching a rollercoaster ride gone wrong - all that excitement turned into stress, quick decisions based on gut feelings rather than strategy, and seeing their accounts shrink before my eyes. Here's what I've noticed firsthand:
-Emotion Over Logic: They were making choices fueled by the fear of missing out or trying to get back at the market after a loss, not because it was the smart move. Spot on. Emotional trading is the quickest path to financial ruin. It's all about managing those emotions.
-Exhaustion: The constant screen time was draining them, both physically and mentally. This is why I always preach about the importance of having a life outside of trading. Burnout is real and it clouds judgment.
-Costly Habits: Those small fees and spreads started adding up, eating away at their profits with each impulsive trade. Always remember, every trade has a cost. Overtrading is like death by a thousand cuts.
But here’s the good news - I've got some immediate steps I take to turn things around:
1)Trade Log Love: I get them to write down every trade, focusing on the reasons behind their decisions. It’s amazing how this simple act helps them learn from their actions. A trade log isn't just about accountability; it's about education. Every trade is a lesson.
2)Take a Breather: I enforce a little break after each trade. It's like hitting the reset button for your brain, ensuring the next trade isn't just a reaction to the last. This is critical. It’s about breaking the cycle of reactive trading. Think of it as forced discipline.
3)Quality Time: I shift the focus to waiting for those golden opportunities, teaching them that sometimes the best trade is the one you don't make. Patience in trading is not just a virtue; it's a strategy. The markets reward those who wait for the right moment.
Come join me as I navigate through the overtrading storm, helping my students, and maybe you too, become more thoughtful, strategic traders! This is what I call practical wisdom. Overtrading is a symptom of not having a solid plan. I'd recommend this course of action to any trader looking to turn their habits around.
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
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