Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 24, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 24, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 Markets Eye Powell Testimony & Consumer Confidence
Today brings a double dose of market-moving data: the June Consumer Confidence Index and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress. These will be key indicators of household sentiment and potential shifts in Fed rate guidance
🛢️ Oil Volatility Persists on Middle East Strain
Oil prices briefly spiked after U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, prompting fears of supply disruptions. However, prices have since dipped as ceasefire hopes emerge. Investors remain cautious on energy headwinds
💱 Dollar Retraces on Safe-Haven Rotation
The dollar softened after peaking as geopolitical tensions eased slightly. Still, it remains sensitive to Powell’s tone and confidence data, which could reintroduce volatility
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Tuesday, June 24:
10:00 AM ET – Conference Board Consumer Confidence (June)
Monitors household optimism; a rebound could support consumer spending and equities.
10:00 AM ET – Fed Chair Powell Testimony Begins
Powell appears before the House Financial Services Committee. Market focus: inflation outlook, tariffs, and potential timing for rate cuts.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #trade #energy #technicalanalysis
Stocks
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Price Bouncing Up from Support after NewsSPY (S&P500 ETF) price has bounced up from the $593 support level after recent global news (de-escalation news).
Price action has slowed and consolidated in June 2025, and the S&P500 is still maintaining a price uptrend.
The 50EMA and 20EMA Golden Cross is still active and in progress (since May 2025).
The next stock market earnings season is not for another 3 months. Inflation, interest rate news, global events, government news, corporate news will continue to affect price volatility this summer.
Resistance Levels: $604, $610, $612, $619.
Support Levels: $600, $593, $586, $579.
After 45% Profit On Last Trade, I Am Re-entering UMACTrading Family,
On our stock trades, using my new liquidity indicator, we have been solidly beating the market with a cool 15% profit since our first trade with it. If you had held the SPY from the same time, your profit would have been a more meager 6.5%. Our indicator is proving beneficial, to say the least. And the last time it gave me a buy signal on UMAC, we banked 45% in profit on my last exit. I then determined that if it did not give me a sell signal (it hasn't), I would look to re-enter at that 7.66 level. We have reached that level, and I have dipped my toes back in at 7.94. I would look to double up my position if we drop even further to that 6.44 level, but I don't know that we will. My target of 11.76 will give us another 48% profit on this trade, and I have a SL set at 6.18 for a nice 2.17 rrr.
Let's go!
Stew
Futures Watchlist for week ending 6/27/2025Come join as i go through the future tickers that im watching this week and where i see them going. With war talks filling up on social media this will add to our volatility and we will look at key levels to capitalize off of it! Let me know your thoughts on these tickers. Also let me know if there is another symbol futures or stocks that you want me to breakdown for you!
TRUK - VCP (118W 66/27 3T)IDX:TRUK - VCP
(+):
1. Low risk entry point on pivot level
2. Volume dries up
3. Price above MA 50 > 150 > 200 over 10 weeks
4. Price is within 25% of 52 weeks high
6. Price is over 30% of 52 weeks low
7. 200 day MA trending up over 1 month
8. RS Rating is over 70 (84)
9. Breakout with huge volume
(-)
1. There is nothing good with the fundamental
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 23–27, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 23–27, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🌐 Geopolitics Add to Risk Aversion
The S&P 500 is up about 0.9% so far in June, but analysts warn it’s facing a “precarious” phase amid renewed Middle East conflict and looming U.S. tariff deadlines in July–August. Elevated oil prices could fuel inflation, while fiscal and debt ceiling pressures weigh on sentiment
🎙️ Powell Heads to Capitol Hill
Fed Chair Powell will testify before Congress this week. His remarks on inflation and rate outlook—particularly regarding the Fed’s recent dot-plot revisions and monetary policy uncertainty—will be central to market direction
📈 Nike, FedEx & Micron Earnings Under Focus
Key corporate earnings (Nike, FedEx, Micron) could provide fresh insight into how tariffs and supply-chain disruptions are impacting major U.S. businesses
🛢️ Oil Prices Elevated
Oil remains range-bound at multi-week highs near $75–80/bbl following U.S.–Israel military action in Iran, which briefly spiked prices ~7–11%. Continued dependence on Middle Eastern supply may keep energy complex volatile
⚖️ NATO Summit Tightens Security Focus
NATO leaders meet in The Hague, marking an elevated global defense posture amid geopolitical uncertainty. Defense and aerospace stocks may remain pressured or volatile depending on summit outcomes
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Monday, June 23
9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Flash U.S. Services & Manufacturing PMI (June)
10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales (May)
📅 Tuesday, June 24
10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence Index (June)
Testimony: Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears before Congress
📅 Wednesday, June 25
10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales (May)
📅 Thursday, June 26
8:30 AM ET: Advance Q1 GDP (Final Estimate)
📅 Friday, June 27
8:30 AM ET: Core PCE Price Index (May) — Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before investing.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #geopolitics #Fed #oil #charting #technicalanalysis
Big CorrectionThe S&P index.
The chart shows the potential end of the final rally from the 2009 low.
Currently, with this rally from the recent 4,800 low, we are still in a correction period that will end in late October (highs and lows are irrelevant), & We have a date coming up in August so let's see what happens there.
After this period, we will have a rally combined with uncertainty and unjustified speculative movements (bubble) that could take us to the final peak, which I expect in 2026.
This remains a possibility, but don't base your trades on it. However, caution is often good.
The Chart you don't want to see: Coinbase Vampire attacked ETHBrian Armstrong is a significant influencer in both Silicon Valley and now Washington, D.C., where he is instrumental in shaping legislation and attracting investments that benefit Coinbase and its shareholders.
Vitalik writes blogs and appoints EF directors who appear to have ambiguous gender identities and are quite out there on the spectrum.
Jesse Pollak is yet another astute player who has leveraged ETH's technology to transform BASE into a powerhouse integrating neatly into Coinbase platform for payments and now DEX trading within app.
ETH will thrive.
However, as we've observed, Joe Lubin's return as a public figure to advocate for and steer the future of Ethereum has never been more crucial.
But will it be sufficient to compete with Brian and Jesse? They seem to be operating on a significantly higher plane.
SNOWFLAKE to $369Snowflake Inc. is an American cloud-based data storage company.
Headquartered in Bozeman, Montana, it operates a platform that allows for data analysis and simultaneous access of data sets with minimal latency. It operates on Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform.
As of November 2024, the company had 10,618 customers, including more than 800 members of the Forbes Global 2000, and processed 4.2 billion daily queries across its platform
#DoubleBottom
#Wformation
Google MUST hold this critical level!NASDAQ:GOOG local analysis update
📈 𝙇𝙤𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙢 Further decline below the daily 200EMA, High Volume Node (HVN) and pivot point which it closed below on Friday could see google price fall back below $140.
📉 𝙎𝙝𝙤𝙧𝙩 𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙢 the bullish run has ended with Fridays bearish engulfing, first support below the support it is currently sat at is $156.
Irans conflict has investors shaken and not willing to hold assets over the weekend on the fear of worse news. However, if the conflict is resolved investors could have a great buying opportunity.
𝙏𝙚𝙘𝙝𝙣𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙡 𝘼𝙣𝙖𝙡𝙮𝙨𝙞𝙨
Price is challenging a triple shield: major support HVN, daily pivot and the daily 200EMA. Holding this level is critical and locks in a corrective Elliot Wave pattern from the $140 level completing between the 0.5-0.618 Fib retracement.
Daily DEMA Is about to produce a death cross while RSI is neutral with plenty of room to fall.
Safe trading
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 20, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index has primarily exhibited downward trends during this week’s abbreviated trading session, narrowly failing to reach the targeted Mean Support level of 5940, as outlined in the previous Daily Chart Analysis. Currently, the index exhibits a bearish trend, suggesting a potential direction toward the Mean Support level of 5940, with an additional critical support level identified at 5888.
Contrariwise, there exists a substantial likelihood that following the accomplishment of hitting the Mean Support of 5940, the index may experience recovery and ascend toward the Mean Resistance level of 6046. This upward movement could facilitate a resilient rally, ultimately topping in the completion of the Outer Index Rally at 6073, thereby enabling the index to address the Key Resistance level situated at 6150.
SPX vs VIX: Is this a sign of a bullish market?VIX has seen a strong decline in the past 2 months following the massive surge of Feb-March due to the Tariff War. In contrast, the S&P500 rose massively to almost its ATH, which is a natural response as the two assets are negatively correlated. This VIX pattern has been seen during every major market bottom in the past 15 years, the strongest of which was the 2020 COVID crash. This is a sign of a very bullish market, TP = 6,800 by the end of the year.
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MICROSOFT: 1D Golden Cross to slingshot it to $590MSFT turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 73.199, MACD = 13.580, ADX = 52.584), extending the rise to a new ATH today, having formed a 1D Golden Cross on June 9th. That was the first 1D Golden Cross since March 20th 2023, which validated a bullish extenstion to +71.50% from the bottom. Since the long term Channel Up has already started its new bullish wave, we are expecting the uptrend to continue up to +71.50% at least. Go long, TP = $590.
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CRCL LOOKS OVERBOUGHTAs you can see after a good ride from 102 to 234 now the stock looks overbought. and on shorter time frames the price action shows a classic pattern of double top and breaking the previous support. simply if the stock closes 15 m candle below the support you might see a short retest to the support from downside that is a good point to short.
AMAZON Local Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
AMAZON made a retest
Of the horizontal resistance
Around 219$ and the stock
Is already making a local
Bearish pullback so a further
Bearish correction
Is to be expected
Sell!
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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 20, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 20, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏦 Fed Holds Rates, Warns on Tariffs
Fed kept interest rates steady on June 19, cautioning that tariffs could stoke inflation and slow growth. Inflation projections were raised from 2.7% to 3.0%, while growth estimates were revised lower to 1.4%
🌍 Middle East Risk Drags Markets
Global stocks fell and safe-haven assets surged after U.S. futures weakened amid heightened tensions in the Israel–Iran conflict. Yields were mixed: gold weakened and bonds gained, while oil held steady near seven-week highs
📈 Treasury Yields Edge Higher
Despite safe-haven demand, U.S. 10‑year yields ticked up as markets absorbed the Fed’s updated rate outlook. The yield curve remains elevated ahead of next week’s $38 bn auction of long-dated notes
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, June 20:
(No major U.S. economic reports)
Markets will be driven by Fed commentary follow-ups and geopolitical headlines over the weekend.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #geopolitics #fixedincome #inflation #charting #technicalanalysis
NASDAQ: Huge pivot can catapult it if broken.Nasdaq has turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.712, MACD = 377..560, ADX = 20.644) as it has been struggling to cross above a hidden trendline, the Pivot P1 that was at the start of this Bull Cycle a support and after the trade war acts now as a resistance. If broken, we anticipate a +27.84% rise at least (TP = 28,440), which may very well be an end of year target.
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COINBASE: Is it a guide on how to trade PEPE??Coinbase saw a massive surge yesterday as the Senate cleared the path for stablecoin regulation. This turned its 1D technical outlook almost overbought (RSI = 68.001, MACD = 11.870, ADX = 26.090). Our TP = 348.50 on COIN remains but oddly enough, we see a stronger than expected correlation with PEPE. Since it is now lagging after the Senate decision, this may be a great time to buy PEPE as this pattern shows that soon it will follow Coinbase upwards anf they will converge.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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