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Coca-Cola Company (KO) Shares Trade Near All-Time HighCoca-Cola Company (KO) Shares Trade Near All-Time High Stock market charts indicate that from the start of last week’s trading through to its close: → The S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) declined by approximately 3%; → Pepsico (PEP) shares dropped by more than 1%; → Coca-Cola Company (KO) shares rose by around 2.4%. Why Aren’t Coca-Cola Shares Falling? The relatively strong performance of Coca-Cola (KO) shares compared to the broader market and its main competitor may be attributed to the fact that Coca-Cola operates a concentrate production facility in Atlanta, USA. In contrast, Pepsico’s equivalent production is based in Ireland. This gives Coca-Cola a potential advantage under the tariff policies pursued by the Trump administration. Incidentally, according to media reports, Diet Coke is the favourite drink of the US President. Technical Analysis of KO Stock Chart In 2025, KO stock has been forming an upward channel, though the current price is approaching key resistance levels: → the upper boundary of this ascending channel; → the $73 level, above which several successive all-time highs have been formed. However, price action suggests that bulls have so far struggled to establish a foothold above this mark. It is possible that the upcoming quarterly earnings report, scheduled for 29 April, could provide a positive catalyst for KO’s share price. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NYSE:KO
by FXOpen
NAS100 - Will the stock market go bullish?!The index is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, one can look for the next Nasdaq long positions with a good risk-reward ratio. Economists remain divided over whether President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are weakening the economy enough to trigger a recession. Some believe the possibility of a recession is significant, citing the rising costs of tariffs that are burdening both businesses and consumers. Others argue that the U.S. economy is strong enough to weather the trade war without falling into recession, pointing to resilient employment levels and consumer spending. Forecasting experts also express differing views regarding the risk that Trump’s tariff campaign could tip the economy into a downturn. A Wall Street Journal survey conducted in April among 57 economists revealed that, on average, participants estimated a 45% chance of a recession occurring within the next 12 months—up from just 20% in the January survey. The economic outlook took a notable downturn in February, when Trump began announcing tariffs against key U.S. trading partners. Many forecasters, who had expected a “soft landing” from post-pandemic inflation, are now preparing for a possible recession, as these tariffs and other economic barriers are forcing both households and businesses to tighten spending. A separate survey of financial professionals working with businesses found that many companies have recently faced greater difficulty in collecting payments from clients, indicating growing financial strain among key economic players. The Credit Managers’ Index, overseen by the National Association of Credit Management and monitored by economist Chris Kuehl, still showed growth in March, though at a slower pace than before. On the more optimistic side is Allen Sinai from Decision Economics, who assigns only a 20% probability to a recession within the next year. Although this is an increase from his January estimate of 10%, he still considers it an unlikely scenario. Sinai’s primary reason for optimism is the strength of the labor market, which has remained stable since recovering from the massive layoffs during the COVID-19 lockdowns. March’s unemployment rate was 4.2%—close to historic lows—and not indicative of an economy in recession. One major point of disagreement between recession pessimists and optimists lies in the interpretation of consumer sentiment data. Surveys have shown that people are increasingly worried about inflation, the job market, and their personal finances. If such concerns lead to more cautious consumer spending, it could weigh heavily on the overall economy. The upcoming week is expected to begin quietly in terms of economic data releases, particularly due to global markets being closed on Monday in observance of Easter. However, midweek brings key reports that could significantly influence market expectations. On Wednesday, the preliminary S&P Global composite purchasing managers’ index for April and March new home sales figures are due. Thursday will feature a packed slate of indicators, including durable goods orders, jobless claims, existing home sales, and the final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index. Alongside the data releases, investors will closely monitor remarks from Federal Reserve officials. Following Jerome Powell’s firm stance last week, upcoming speeches by Kashkari, Goolsbee, and Harker could shape or reinforce market expectations regarding the Fed’s future policy path. Meanwhile, Apple is grappling with mounting challenges in the global marketplace. In China, the company has lost a significant portion of its market share, with sales declining by 9%, while Huawei’s sales have grown by 10%, and Xiaomi now holds the top spot with an 18.6% market share. These shifts reflect a notable pivot in Chinese consumer preferences toward domestic brands. Furthermore, U.S.-imposed tariffs on Chinese goods have put additional pressure on Apple’s profit margins in its home market, placing the company in a tough position.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
BTC - The power of fibonacci This is a textbook example of how institutional price delivery often unfolds when targeting liquidity and rebalancing inefficiencies. The current BTC 1H chart displays a high-probability short scenario developing after a liquidity sweep, combined with entry into a fair value gap (FVG) chain and Fibonacci-based premium pricing. Let’s break down the mechanics of this setup layer by layer. --- 1. Liquidity Grab Above Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) The first major clue that institutional activity is at play is the clean sweep of Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) . - A previous swing high acted as a magnet for liquidity, with stop-loss orders from short sellers and breakout entries from late longs accumulating above this level. - Price pierced above it, only to immediately reverse—this is what we refer to as a liquidity grab , signaling engineered movement designed to fuel larger orders. - This behavior often represents the conclusion of a bullish leg and the transition into a distribution phase or a bearish delivery sequence. This sweep is not random; it's a deliberate market manipulation mechanism—classic of a “trap and reverse” pattern. --- 2. Fair Value Gap (FVG) Chain: Imbalance as a Magnet After rejecting above the BSL, price began retracing downward, but left behind multiple Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) . These are inefficiencies between price candles where institutional orders did not fully fill. - These FVGs now form what we call a “chain” or cluster, providing a roadmap for price to return and rebalance. - The current move upward is revisiting this chain of inefficiencies, offering a potential re-entry zone for institutions to offload positions accumulated earlier. - FVGs in premium zones (above equilibrium) are particularly potent—they align with institutional interest to sell at value. This aligns with the concept that price often returns to inefficiencies before continuing its true direction—especially when paired with a prior liquidity grab. --- 3. Golden Pocket and the Premium Zone Confluence The retracement found a reaction at the Golden Pocket level (0.618–0.65 Fibonacci zone) , which is significant not just for its mathematical roots but for how frequently smart money uses it for mitigation and continuation entries. - The zone lines up directly with the FVG chain, creating a powerful confluence zone where institutional footprints are likely to reappear. - This area is within a clear premium pricing territory , above the 0.5 Fibonacci mark—ideal for distribution in bearish re-accumulation setups. This convergence of technical signals bolsters the case that the current move upward is a mere retracement, not a genuine trend reversal. --- 4. Market Structure Context From a structural point of view: - Price has transitioned from a range into a lower high formation after the BSL sweep. - The series of lower highs and lower lows began forming after the grab, which implies a potential shift in short-term order flow. Combine this with the FVG chain and the premium pricing—it paints a narrative of bearish continuation rather than trend expansion to the upside. --- 5. Institutional Narrative: Engineering, Repricing, and Continuation This setup is less about indicators and more about understanding narrative: - Institutions engineered a liquidity sweep to fill large sell orders at premium pricing. - The imbalance left behind (FVGs) serves as a “pullback magnet” before full bearish delivery. - Price is currently delivering into that inefficiency, likely forming a redistribution schematic. The most probable scenario, given this context, is a rejection within this zone and a continuation to the downside as price seeks to break internal structure and move toward sell-side liquidity (SSL) resting below. --- Conclusion: This chart captures the essence of smart money price delivery: - Sweep → Retrace → Mitigation → Continuation The rejection from the FVG chain and golden pocket zone will be key to confirming this scenario. If price respects this confluence, expect bearish order flow to dominate the next sessions. This is a high-quality setup based on narrative, structure, and liquidity—not random confluence, but a storyline of engineered movement and institutional footprints.
Short
by Louigi_24
31
OIL – Bearish Setup at FVG + Golden Pocket ConfluenceThis 4H chart of Crude Oil Futures highlights a clean bearish setup forming as price approaches a confluence zone of imbalance and premium pricing. After a sharp downward move, the current rally appears to be a retracement into areas of interest for potential distribution. --- 1. Context & Market Structure: - The market experienced a significant bearish move, breaking multiple support levels with conviction. - Price is currently retracing upward, creating the possibility of a lower high in line with bearish market structure. - The ongoing move looks corrective, setting up a potential return to the dominant trend. --- 2. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) & Key Supply Zones: - Two FVGs are identified on the chart — both marked as areas where price moved too quickly, leaving inefficiencies behind. - The lower FVG overlaps with the 0.618–0.65 Fibonacci golden pocket zone, providing a strong confluence for potential rejection. - The upper FVG aligns with the 0.786 level, representing deeper premium pricing and added confluence for distribution. --- 3. Fibonacci Confluence Zones: - 0.618–0.65 zone: Coincides with the lower FVG — this is the first area to watch for rejection. - 0.786 level: Aligns with the upper FVG, making it an extended zone for bearish entries if price pushes higher. - These Fibonacci levels serve as key retracement zones within the context of bearish continuation. --- 4. Anticipated Move: - The red arrow illustrates the projected path: price reaching into the FVG and golden pocket confluence, then rejecting to the downside. - The inefficiencies above act as supply zones where institutional selling may occur. - The lower purple level (0.28) is a potential magnet for price if the retracement completes and bearish momentum resumes. --- 5. Trade Idea Narrative: - This is a classic bearish setup where price retraces into premium and inefficiency zones during a downtrend. - The ideal reaction would involve a shift in lower timeframe structure once the price hits the golden pocket + FVG zone. - Patience and confirmation are key — watching for rejection patterns or breakdowns within the FVG before commitment. --- Summary: Crude Oil is retracing after a sharp drop and is approaching a high-probability reversal zone, where a Fair Value Gap overlaps with the golden pocket. This setup provides a strong narrative for potential bearish continuation, supported by structure, imbalance, and Fibonacci confluence.
MARKETSCOM:OILShort
by Louigi_24
35
Market Structure Shift (MSS) & Break of Structure (BOS) - GuideIntroduction Understanding market structure is fundamental to becoming a consistently profitable trader. Two key concepts that Smart Money traders rely on are the Break of Structure (BOS) and the Market Structure Shift (MSS) . While they may seem similar at first glance, they serve different purposes and signal different market intentions. In this guide, we will break down: - The difference between BOS and MSS - When and why they occur - How to identify them on your charts - How to trade based on these structures - Real chart examples for visual clarity --- Break of Structure (BOS) A Break of Structure is a continuation signal. It confirms that the current trend remains intact. BOS typically occurs when price breaks a recent swing high or low in the direction of the existing trend . Key Characteristics: - Happens with the trend - Confirms continuation - Can be used to trail stops or add to positions Example: In an uptrend: - Higher High (HH) and Higher Low (HL) form - Price breaks above the last HH → BOS to the upside --- Market Structure Shift (MSS) Market Structure Shift signals a potential reversal . It occurs when price breaks a significant swing level against the prevailing trend and is often followed by a shift in the internal structure (e.g., lower highs after higher highs). Key Characteristics: - Happens against the trend] - Signals possible trend reversal - Often occurs after a liquidity grab or stop hunt - Optional: is created by a displacement candle Example: In an uptrend: - Price takes out a significant high (liquidity grab) - Then aggressively breaks the most recent HL → MSS to the downside --- How to Identify BOS and MSS For BOS: 1. Determine the current trend. 2. Identify swing highs/lows. 3. Look for price breaking past these levels in the same direction as the trend . For MSS: 1. Look for signs of exhaustion or liquidity grabs near swing highs/lows. 2. Watch for price to break against the trend structure . 3. Confirm with a shift in internal structure (e.g., lower highs start forming in an uptrend). --- Using BOS and MSS in Your Trading Strategy With BOS: - Use it to confirm trend continuation - Add to your position after a retracement into an OB or FVG - Trail your stop-loss below the most recent HL or above LH With MSS: - Look for confluence (liquidity sweep + MSS = strong signal) - Use it to spot early reversal entries - Wait for a confirmation candle or structure shift on LTF (1m, 5m, 15m) - If the displacement candle is too big you can wait for the retest --- Common Mistakes to Avoid - Confusing BOS with MSS - Ignoring higher timeframe context - Trading MSS too early without confirmation - Chasing BOS without waiting for a proper retracement Pro Tip: Use BOS/MSS with confluences like SMT Divergence, IFVGs, or key session times for higher probability setups. --- Final Thoughts Mastering BOS and MSS will give you an edge in understanding price delivery and anticipating market moves. BOS confirms strength in the current trend, while MSS warns of a possible reversal and new trend forming. Combine these with smart money tools, and you’ll be equipped to enter the market like a pro. Happy Trading!
Education
by Louigi_24
45
T Trading Guide 4/21/25AT&T (T) Trading Analysis for Monday, April 21, 2025 Sentiment Analysis -Overview: Sentiment on X and StockTwits is neutral, with investors appreciating T’s 4.11% dividend yield but expressing concerns over tariff-driven cost increases. Analyst consensus remains stable, with a “Hold” rating and a $21.50 target (April 20 ), though some Reddit (r/options) users highlight margin pressures from tariffs. -Implication: Mixed sentiment suggests range-bound trading absent a catalyst, with tariff concerns capping upside potential. Strategic Outlook -Assessment: The outlook for Monday is neutral, supported by balanced options activity, oversold technicals with potential for a bounce, and a VIX at ~40 indicating volatility. -Implication: Anticipate a price range of $26.50 to $27.50, with support at $26.50 likely to hold and resistance at $27.50 posing a challenge for bulls. Market Influences -Overview: No new Federal Reserve decisions today; recent guidance on April 17 signals caution on rates, potentially impacting telecom spending. T’s earnings are due April 23, with a consensus EPS of $0.52 (April 20 ). Social media chatter on X and WallStreetBets focuses on dividend stability, though some Reddit users note tariff risks (10% baseline). No M&A news has surfaced. -Implication: Earnings anticipation and tariff pressures suggest cautious trading, likely keeping T within a tight range on Monday. Price Context -Overview: Current price at $27.15. The stock has declined 4% over the past month from $28.30 on March 31 and is up 13% year-over-year from $24.02 in April 2024. Support lies at $26.50, with resistance at $27.50. -Implication: Recent declines indicate limited upside; a break below $26.50 could signal further downside to $26.00. Technicals: Monthly: RSI at 45 (neutral), Stochastic at ~40 (neutral), MFI at ~42 (neutral). Price below 10/20-month SMAs ($28.00/~$29.00, bearish). Implication: Long-term bearish trend with neutral momentum. Weekly: RSI at 42 (neutral), Stochastic at ~35 (neutral), MFI at ~38 (neutral). Price below 10/20-day SMAs ($27.50/~$28.00, bearish). Implication: Bearish trend with neutral momentum, suggesting consolidation for weekly contracts. Daily: RSI at 40 (neutral), Stochastic at ~30 (neutral), MFI at ~35 (neutral). Price below 10/20-day SMAs ($27.20/~$27.50, bearish). Implication: Daily trend bearish, but oversold conditions may support a bounce. 4-Hour: RSI at 43 (neutral), Stochastic at ~38 (neutral), MFI at ~40 (neutral). Price below 10/20-period SMAs ($27.10/~$27.20, bearish). Implication: Medium-term bias bearish, aligning with weekly caution. Hourly: RSI at 46 (neutral), Stochastic at ~42 (neutral), MFI at ~44 (neutral). Price below 10/20-hour SMAs ($27.05/~$27.10, bearish). Implication: Intraday bias bearish, suggesting potential selling pressure. 10-Minute: RSI at 48 (neutral), Stochastic at ~45 (neutral), MFI at ~46 (neutral). Price below 10/20-period SMAs ($27.00/~$27.05, bearish). Implication: Short-term bias bearish, supporting a cautious weekly stance. Options Positioning Overview: Weekly options show balanced volume ($27.00 calls: 800 contracts, 50% at ask; $26.50 puts: 900 contracts, 55% at bid), with a put-call ratio of 1.1 (neutral) and IV skew flat ($27.00 calls/puts: 35%). Monthly options have a put-call ratio of 1.0, IV flat ($27.00: 32%). 3-Month options show a put-call ratio of 1.2, IV flat ($26.50: 30%). VIX at ~40 (down 5%, above 30-day average of ~35). Option Flow Dynamics (OFD) Analysis: Vanna: -Impact: Minimal, ±$0.02 intraday. -Insight: Balanced call/put volume and flat IV skew at 35% result in negligible delta adjustments by dealers, even with a VIX of 40. -Stance: Neutral for weekly contracts; bullish if IV exceeds 38%. Charm: -Impact: Pins price ±$0.02, minimal volatility. -Insight: High open interest at $27.00 (calls: 2,000 contracts, puts: 2,200 contracts) leads dealers to maintain delta neutrality, pinning the price near expiry. -Stance: Neutral for weekly contracts; bearish if price breaks above $27.50. GEX (Gamma Exposure): -Impact: Pins price ±$0.05, minimal volatility. -Insight: Balanced gamma from equal call/put open interest at $27.00 keeps price stable, though a VIX of 40 could amplify breakout volatility. -Stance: Neutral at $27.15 for weekly contracts; bearish above $27.50. DEX (Delta Exposure): -Impact: No directional bias. -Insight: A put-call ratio of 1.1 indicates balanced delta exposure, with dealers’ hedging activities netting zero directional impact. -Stance: Neutral for weekly contracts, even on high volume. OFD Summary: Weekly flows indicate a neutral bias, with price likely to remain within $26.50-$27.50, driven by balanced Vanna, Charm, GEX, and DEX dynamics. A VIX of 40 suggests potential volatility; earnings on April 23 could push IV above 38%, adding $0.05-$0.10 upside (Vanna). Monthly and 3-month expiries (put-call ratios 1.0 and 1.2) confirm range-bound confluence. -Implication: Neutral bias for weekly contracts; high VIX suggests volatility within the $26.50-$27.50 range for Monday. ICT/SMT Analysis -Overview: Weekly: Neutral, support at $26.50, resistance at $27.50, SMT divergence versus VZ shows relative strength. Daily: Neutral, FVG $27.50-$28.00, OB $26.00. 4-Hour: Neutral, MSS below $27.15, liquidity below $26.50. 1-Hour: Neutral, MSS below $27.15, liquidity below $26.50. 10-Minute: OTE sell zone $27.20-$27.30 (Fib 70.5%), target $26.50. -Implication: Neutral across timeframes; a breakdown below $26.50 could target $26.00, but weekly contracts are likely to see consolidation. Edge Insights -Institutional Flows: Recent block trades (April 18 ) show balanced buying and selling at $27.00, suggesting institutions are hedging rather than taking a directional stance. -Sector Stability: Telecom sector is down only 5% YTD (Morningstar ), providing relative stability compared to other sectors, though tariff costs remain a headwind for T. -Earnings Catalyst: With earnings due April 23, pre-earnings positioning may increase volatility, potentially favoring a breakout above $27.50 if sentiment shifts positively. -Implication: Sector stability supports a neutral weekly stance, but monitor for pre-earnings IV spikes that could shift dynamics. Trade Recommendation Analysis: -Neutral: 50% likelihood (balanced options flows, GEX pinning at $27.15, high VIX choppiness). -Bearish: 30% likelihood (MSS below $27.15, tariff pressures). -Bullish: 20% likelihood (oversold indicators, potential bounce above $27.50). -Action: Recommend a neutral stance with a bearish tilt; if bearish, buy $27.00 puts (weekly expiry) at ~$0.20, targeting $0.40, with a stop at $0.10 if T breaks $27.50. Risk $40 (2% of a $2,000 account). Conclusion for Monday: T is poised for range-bound trading within $26.50-$27.50, driven by neutral options flows and tariff concerns. Focus on a potential breakdown below $26.50 for weekly bearish trades, targeting $26.00. High VIX and impending earnings add risk—execute with tight stops to manage volatility.
NYSE:T
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
1
KSS Trading Guide 4/21/25Kohl's Corporation (KSS) Trading Analysis for Monday, April 21, 2025 Sentiment Analysis ----Overview: Sentiment on platforms like X and StockTwits leans bearish, driven by tariff concerns and Kohl’s weakening fundamentals, with projected sales declines of 5-7% in 2025. JP Morgan’s Underweight rating and $7 price target as of April 14 underscore margin pressures, though a ~12% dividend yield provides some appeal for income-focused investors. ----Implication: The prevailing negative sentiment, coupled with macroeconomic headwinds, is likely to exert downward pressure on KSS, overshadowing the dividend’s stabilizing effect. Strategic Outlook ----Assessment: The outlook for Monday is bearish, fueled by significant put activity in weekly options, persistently oversold technical indicators without reversal signals, and a VIX at ~40, reflecting heightened market volatility. ----Implication: Anticipate a price range of $6.20 to $6.50, with a risk of breaching support at $6.20, potentially driving the stock toward $5.80 if bearish momentum persists. Market Influences ----Overview: No new Federal Reserve decisions today; however, recent guidance on April 17 signals a cautious approach to rates, which could dampen retail spending. Kohl’s next earnings are scheduled for May 21, per TradingView data. Fitch Ratings downgraded KSS from BB to BB- on April 7, citing financial strain. Social media discussions on X, WallStreetBets, and StockTwits remain bearish, focusing on the impact of 10% baseline tariffs on margins. Additionally, the departure of Chief Technology Officer Siobhán Mc Feeney on April 1 introduces further uncertainty. ----Implication: The absence of positive catalysts, combined with tariff pressures and leadership changes, solidifies a bearish outlook for Monday. Price Context ----Overview: Current price at $6.48. The stock has declined 21% over the past month from $8.20 on March 31 and is down 73% year-over-year from $23.94 in April 2024. Support lies at $6.20 (recent low on April 17), with resistance at $6.89 (April 14 open). ----Implication: Recent declines, driven by tariffs and executive turnover, suggest continued downward pressure, with a break below $6.20 likely to accelerate losses. Technical Indicators Monthly: RSI at 22 (oversold), Stochastic at ~12 (oversold), MFI at ~18 (oversold). Price below 10/20-month SMAs ($8.50/~$9.50, bearish). Implication: Long-term bearish trend with extreme oversold conditions, yet no reversal signal is evident. Weekly: RSI at 27 (oversold), Stochastic at ~17 (oversold), MFI at ~20 (oversold). Price below 10/20-day SMAs ($6.70/~$6.90, bearish). Implication: Bearish trend confirms downside bias for weekly contracts. Daily: RSI at 30 (nearing oversold), Stochastic at ~15 (oversold), MFI at ~22 (oversold). Price below 10/20-day SMAs ($6.40/~$6.50, bearish). Implication: Daily trend supports weekly bearish bias. 4-Hour: RSI at 35 (nearing oversold), Stochastic at ~18 (oversold), MFI at ~28 (nearing oversold). Price below 10/20-period SMAs ($6.30/~$6.40, bearish). Implication: Medium-term bias aligns with weekly outlook. Hourly: RSI at 32 (nearing oversold), Stochastic at ~15 (oversold), MFI at ~25 (oversold). Price below 10/20-hour SMAs ($6.35/~$6.40, bearish). Implication: Intraday bias supports weekly trade direction. 10-Minute: RSI at 38 (neutral), Stochastic at ~20 (oversold), MFI at ~30 (nearing oversold). Price below 10/20-period SMAs ($6.45/~$6.47, bearish). Implication: Short-term bias reinforces weekly contract setup. Options Positioning Overview: Weekly options show high put volume at $6.50 (1,500 contracts, 70% at bid), with a put-call ratio of 2.5 (bearish) and IV skew favoring puts ($6.50: 50%, rising). Monthly options have a put-call ratio of 2.0, with put IV rising ($6.00: 48%). 3-Month options show a put-call ratio of 2.3, with put IV rising ($5.50: 45%). VIX at ~40 (down 5%, above 30-day average of ~35). Option Flow Dynamics (OFD) Analysis: Vanna: Impact: -$0.10 intraday. Insight: Rising put IV at 50% compels dealers to sell shares to hedge delta as IV increases, exerting downward pressure. A VIX of 40 heightens this effect. Stance: Bearish for weekly contracts; neutral if IV falls below 48%. Charm: Impact: Pins price ±$0.05, adds $0.03 volatility. Insight: High put open interest at $6.50 prompts dealers to sell shares to maintain delta neutrality near expiry, pinning the price with minor volatility. Stance: Bearish for weekly contracts; neutral if price holds $6.50. GEX (Gamma Exposure): Impact: Pins price ±$0.10, adds $0.05 volatility. Insight: Negative gamma from elevated put open interest drives dealers to sell shares on price declines, pinning at $6.50 while adding volatility on breakouts. Stance: Bearish below $6.50 for weekly contracts; neutral at $6.50. DEX (Delta Exposure): Impact: $0.20-$0.30/day downward pressure. Insight: High put open interest creates a delta imbalance, compelling dealers to sell shares on price drops, adding consistent downward pressure. Stance: Bearish for weekly contracts, particularly on high volume. OFD Summary: Weekly flows signal a bearish bias, with $0.30-$0.50 downward pressure driven by Vanna and DEX selling. Pivot at $6.50; weekly range $6.20-$6.50 (pinning). A VIX of 40 amplifies downside risk, and a break below $6.20 could trigger $0.15 volatility (GEX). Monthly and 3-month expiries, with put-call ratios of 2.0 and 2.3, provide bearish confluence. Implication: Bearish bias for weekly contracts; elevated VIX suggests downside volatility, with a $6.20-$6.50 range for Monday. ICT/SMT Analysis Overview: Weekly: Bearish, support at $6.20, resistance at $6.89, SMT divergence versus WMT confirms weakness. Daily: Bearish, FVG $6.50-$6.89, OB $5.80. 4-Hour: Bearish, MSS below $6.48, liquidity below $6.20. 1-Hour: Bearish, MSS below $6.48, liquidity below $6.20. 10-Minute: OTE sell zone $6.50-$6.60 (Fib 70.5%), target $6.20. Implication: Bearish across all timeframes; a breakdown below $6.20 is likely, aligning with the weekly contract setup. Edge Insights Dark Pool Activity: Large sell orders at $6.50 in recent dark pool prints (April 18) indicate institutional bearishness, potentially increasing selling pressure if retail traders follow suit on Monday. Sector Dynamics: The consumer discretionary sector is down 17.8% year-to-date (Morningstar); Kohl’s heavy reliance on imported goods amid tariffs makes it more vulnerable than peers like Walmart, which benefits from stronger domestic sourcing. Short Interest Pressure: Short interest at ~45% of float (MarketBeat) raises the risk of a short squeeze if the price breaks above $6.89, though current momentum favors shorts targeting $6.20. Implication: Institutional selling and sector weakness reinforce the bearish bias for weekly puts; remain vigilant for a potential squeeze if the price approaches $6.89. Trade Recommendation Analysis: Bearish: 55% likelihood (negative MSS, OFD flows, tariff pressures). Neutral: 30% likelihood (GEX pinning at $6.50, high VIX choppiness). Bullish: 15% likelihood (oversold indicators, potential bounce above $6.89). Action: Recommend a bearish weekly trade below $6.20, targeting $5.80. Purchase $6.50 puts (weekly expiry) at ~$0.25, aiming for $0.50, with a stop at $0.15 if KSS breaks $6.60. Risk $50 (2.5% of a $2,000 account). Conclusion for Monday: Kohl’s faces a bearish trajectory driven by tariff pressures, negative options flows, and leadership uncertainty. The recommended strategy focuses on a breakdown below $6.20 for weekly bearish trades, targeting $5.80. Elevated VIX and institutional selling add risk—execute with tight stops to manage volatility.
NYSE:KSS
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 21–25, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸 Tariff Fallout Deepens: Markets remain volatile as President Trump's recent tariff policies continue to unsettle investors. The S&P 500 is down 14% from its February peak, with recession fears escalating. Economists now estimate a 45% chance of a downturn within the next year, up from 25% previously. ​ 🚗 Tesla's Anticipated Earnings: Tesla is set to report Q1 earnings on Tuesday. Options pricing suggests a potential 9.3% stock movement post-report. Investors are keenly awaiting updates on AI initiatives, including the robotaxi network and the Optimus humanoid robot. 🛢️ Oilfield Services Under Pressure: Halliburton, Baker Hughes, and SLB will release earnings this week amid declining oil prices and tariff-induced cost pressures. Analysts warn that sustained crude prices below $60 could lead to a 20% drop in domestic oilfield activity. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, April 21: No major economic data releases scheduled.​ 📅 Tuesday, April 22: 🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 4.20 million Previous: 4.38 million Provides insight into the housing market's health and consumer demand.​ 📅 Wednesday, April 23: 📊 S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (9:45 AM ET): Forecast: Manufacturing 49.5; Services 51.0 Previous: Manufacturing 49.2; Services 50.8 Indicates the economic health of the manufacturing and services sectors.​ 📈 New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 675,000 Previous: 662,000 Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold, reflecting housing market trends.​ 📘 Federal Reserve Beige Book (2:00 PM ET): Provides a summary of current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. 📅 Thursday, April 24: 📉 Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: -0.5% Previous: 1.3% Reflects new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of factory hard goods.​ 📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 230,000 Previous: 223,000 Indicates the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time.​ 📅 Friday, April 25: 📊 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 76.5 Previous: 77.2 Assesses consumer confidence in economic activity.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
US500's performance this week will be crucial in determiningUS500 Weekly Analysis The US500 index is currently exhibiting bearish tendencies, but a crucial level to monitor is $5491. This level has the potential to act as a resistance point, and we're looking for a possible selling opportunity around this area. However, if the market breaks above $5491, it could signal a shift in bias towards bullish territory, potentially leading to a significant upward move. Key Levels to Watch: 1. Sell Zone: $5491 - This level is critical in determining the next move. We'll be watching for confirmation to sell, such as bearish candlestick patterns or trend indicators. 2. Resistance Area: $5730 - $5790 - A strong resistance zone that could potentially cap upward movements. Trading Strategy: 1. Wait for Confirmation: We'll wait for the market to reach the $5491 level and look for confirmation to sell. This could include bearish candlestick patterns, trend indicators, or other technical signals. 2. Breakout Scenario: If the market breaks above $5491, we'll reassess the bullish potential and look for opportunities to buy. 3. Risk Management: It's essential to manage risk effectively, setting stop-losses and take-profits according to our trading plan. Market Outlook: The US500's performance this week will be crucial in determining the next direction. We'll be monitoring the market closely, analyzing price action, and providing updates on any developments. Stay tuned for our analysis and guidance on potential trading opportunities. By keeping a close eye on these key levels and waiting for confirmation, we can make more informed trading decisions and navigate the markets effectively.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by Peter_Wade
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 17, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the recent shortened trading session, the Index recorded steady to lower prices, distancing itself from the Mean Resistance level of 5455, as indicated in the previous week's Daily Chart analysis. This trend establishes a foundation for continuing the downward trajectory, targeting the Mean Support level 5140. Should this downward momentum persist, further declines may extend to the next Mean Support level of 4970 and ultimately reach the completed Outer Index Dip at 4890. Conversely, it is essential to acknowledge the possibility of upward momentum at the current price level, which may challenge the Mean Resistance of 5455 and extend toward the Outer Index Rally at 5550.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Wyndham Hotels (WH). Big Bullish Insider Moves? My Pick.WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS (WH) Headquartered in NJ, USA who owns La Quinta, Days Inn, Ramada, Super 8, and other well known hotels and resorts. With April Break approaching in a post Covid lockdown environment, we may see Wyndham revenue higher in coming months. Further more (as according to Robinhood) in March of 2025, Insiders purchased roughly 375k shares , but price continued to descend. Insider selling was only reported at 122k shares. Could this indicate bullish internal sentiment? There appears to be an bullish RSI divergence forming on the 1 Day chart . DMI bearish momentum is declining currently as well as the ADX. Overall my hypothesis is bullish, and my current opinion on a price target for Wyndham Hotels & Resorts is $108 given various factors.
NYSE:WHLong
by TRADEABLESKUNK
IM BEARISH ON NVIDIA WITH A TARGET OF $55.00. HERE IS WHY:NVIDIA (NVDA) Known for their GPUs, recently has experienced a decline in asset price. Trump tariff's may have been a bearish news catalyst, but do the technicals show a bigger bearish picture? 1 Day chart: While the RSI recently signaled oversold conditions, the RSI line looks to be crossing down the RSI based moving average. Furthermore the 200 Day EMA and 65 Day EMAs appear to be forming a death cross. DMI is still indicating bearish, and the ADX is still above 20. With recent political news, the tech company has been working on bolstering their U.S based production. But with inflation cooling (6 month low) , I believe many high performing blue chip stocks may see a dip as traders and institutions price in deflation, new news and political events. My opinion on a target is $55.00 , and there is significant open interest on long puts for this price that are expiring in the coming months. Will NVIDIA pull out of this downtrend? Or will it become a great value buy for investors? Disclaimer: Not financial advice.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by TRADEABLESKUNK
UnitedHealth (UNH) Share Price PlummetsUnitedHealth (UNH) Share Price Plummets UnitedHealth shares crashed by nearly 23% yesterday after the healthcare giant reported weaker-than-expected Q1 2025 results: → Earnings per share: actual = $7.20, expected = $7.29 → Revenue: actual = $109.5bn, expected = $111.5bn Technical Analysis of UNH Share Chart As far back as a year ago, we highlighted key support around the $450 level. Yesterday’s negative news caused this support to once again demonstrate its strength by holding back further decline — but will it hold? Taking the price action marked on the chart as a base, we can establish the structure of a descending channel (shown in red), with the price gapping sharply lower into the bottom half of this channel — and yesterday’s candle high (marked with an arrow) suggests that the median line has turned into resistance. Yesterday’s candle closed near its lows, so it is reasonable to assume that bearish pressure may persist (with the aim of testing the lower boundary) — in which case, the $450 support zone, in place since early 2022, could be at risk. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NYSE:UNH
by FXOpen
1
Celanese Corp | CE | Long at $39.64Celanese Corp is another chemical company (like Dow Inc) crushed by tariffs and economic headwinds. It's dropped -78% in one year.... However, this is a very strong company with strong credit market interest and no immediate liquidity crisis. From a technical analysis perspective, this... like in 2008 and 2020... is the time to gather shares given it has reached the "abysmal crash" levels based on my selected simple moving averages. In the past, recovery to new highs has taken 1-2 years. History doesn't always repeat, but fear is opportunity in the stock market. If negative news continues to reign, a dip into the high $20's isn't out of the question. If the company can squeak through 2025 and not continue to stack debt (debt/equity=2.43x), the growth opportunity into 2027-2028 looks promising. I'm keeping my targets into 2026 low, but this could be a good buy and hold for the right investor. Targets: $47.00 $54.75
NYSE:CELong
by WorthlessViews
FHN: Bearish retest after channel break – more downside ahead?First Horizon Corporation is a regional U.S. banking company offering commercial, mortgage, and investment services. It operates mainly across the southern United States and is among the largest regional banks in its sector. Technical Analysis: FHN recently broke down from a long-term ascending channel and is now retesting the lower boundary as resistance. Price stalled near 18.65 with weakening bullish momentum. RSI is trending lower and volume on retest is soft. Key downside levels: 15.00, 13.50, and possibly 10.24 if weakness continues. Fundamentals: FHN faces headwinds from tightening monetary policy, rising credit costs, and profitability pressures. Regional banks are under investor scrutiny following sector instability. Latest earnings report showed declining margins and weaker guidance. Scenarios: Bearish bias – rejection at 18.65 → drop toward 15.00 → 13.50 → 10.24 Bullish reversal – break back above 18.65 → re-entry into channel toward 21.00+
NYSE:FHNShort
by TotoshkaTrades
Amazon losing weekly trendline – watch these Fibo levels nextTechnical Analysis Amazon (AMZN) has broken below its weekly ascending trendline and failed to reclaim the key 0.618 Fibonacci level (180.52). Strong bearish volume and a weakening RSI suggest downside continuation. Key support targets lie at 161.55, 151.21, and 142.58, with extended downside to 119.12. Fundamentals Macro pressure from high interest rates and a slowdown in consumer spending weighs on Amazon. Intense competition in AWS and e-commerce adds uncertainty. Upcoming earnings may serve as a catalyst for directional clarity. Scenarios: Base case – move down toward 151.21, 142.58, 119.12 Bullish case – break above 180.52 → rally toward 207.52, 241.92
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by TotoshkaTrades
Nvidia: Bullish Monday?A new week is about to get started and we would like to know if the NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) chart supports a bullish Monday. What is the chart saying on the daily timeframe? The chart has many positive signals and support a strong week but... Good Sunday my fellow Cryptocurrency trader, how are you feeling in this wonderful day? I hope you are doing great. Let's read the chart; together, let's trade! The chart looks really good and the short-term can always surprise, anything goes. The chart is saying, "up, straight up," and even though the markets are unpredictable, I can easily tell you what the market is doing and is most likely to happen after the weekly close. NVDA is super bullish and likely to continue growing based on multiple signals: 1) The falling wedge pattern is already confirmed. The action broke above it. 2) The trading volume supports a continuation of the pattern breakout. 3) The correction was really strong but the reaction to support was even stronger. Such a strong reaction indicates that traders were anxious and ready to buy. The only reason to sell was based on political bad news. With the bad news removed, up we go. NVDA is solid and with Bitcoin and mining growing, the market expanding, AI, NVDA is set to follow and also grow. 4) Both the 0.786 and 0.618 Fib. retracement levels are major support and gauge the strength of a stock. If the action is happening below, bearish; when the action happens above bullish. The fact that the action moved below just to recover makes this a strong bullish signal. A failed signal for the bears because they failed to move prices lower. A strong bullish signals for the bulls because the action is back above long-term critical support. 5) The session 10-April closed as a hammer and this also points up. 6) Finally, NVDA managed to close daily above EMA8, EMA13 and EMA21. Short-term bullish bias is now valid, active and confirmed. All these are bullish signals saying that the market will move higher next. What needs to happen for all this to become invalid? NVDA would need to close daily below the last low. No need to worry about short-term moves and noise. We are going up long-term. The correction here reached more than 43%. Believe it or not, a 43% drop is a very strong drop. For the market to go lower, it would need to be the end of the company or worse. What need is there for a stock like this one, with a great product in huge demand, to drop by 80%, for what reason? We are going up. Namaste.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by MasterAnanda
15
BROADCOM's 15 year chart is why you will regret not buying now.Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) has been on a strong correction in the past 4 months, completing so far 3 straight brutally red 1M (monthly) candles since January, having broken below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). This month, it hit its 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since November 2022. This is a key Support level as it is AVGO's main Support during Bull Cycles that historically has only broken during Bear Cycles. In fact, the stock has been trading within a 15-year Channel Up since it's IPO. And this is the reason why this correction is a blessing in disguise for long-term investors. The 1W MA100 was intact during the previous historic Bull Cycle from May 2013 to July 2018. So since we tested it now, there is a far stronger probability of it holding and extending the Bull Cycle that started on the October 2022 Low, than turning into a Bear Cycle. Notice also how symmetric the rises have been within this Channel Up. The 2012 - 2015 rise has been +500% before the 1W MA50 was breached again. Similarly, AVGO has grown by +500% again from the October 2022 bottom to the recent All Time High, before it broke last month again below the 1W MA50. If this is a new Low similar to August 2015, then we can expect an equally symmetric follow up rise of +178.64% in the next 2 years. This gives us a rough long-term Target of $380. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:AVGOLong
by TradingShot
S&P 500 E-mini Futures – Bearish Setup Ahead?Price recently tapped into a key resistance zone where an imbalance was filled by a wick, showing signs of potential exhaustion. We could see a liquidity grab above before a significant move down toward the 5,150 level. Watch for a reaction in the highlighted resistance area – this could be the beginning of a bearish reversal. Major support sits lower, where a larger move might find footing. 🔹 Resistance tested 🔹 Imbalance filled 🔹 Bearish reaction anticipated 🔹 Targeting the 5,150 zone Let me know your thoughts – do you see the same setup?
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by wdstrades
7