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High-risk, extreme reward event-driven contrarian/squeeze setupBeyond Meat soared in 2019–2021 on blockbuster growth hopes, only to see its stock crater nearly 99% as reality fell short of hype. Sluggish consumer adoption, steep promotional discounts, and margin pressure dragged revenues from a 2020 peak of $419 M into multi-quarter declines. Recently, management has right-sized operations: Q4 2024 net revenues rose 4% YoY, cost-cutting measures are underway, and new product and foodservice partnerships are rolling out—even as the China business is suspended. Trading below 1× forward sales with ~25% short interest, BYND offers one of the most insane high-risk, event-driven contrarian setups I've ever seen ahead of the May 7 Q1 2025 report. 1. Implosion: What Happened? Peak Hype & Insane Expectations Investors crowned BYND “the Tesla of food,” pricing in 100%+ growth on only ~$200 M in trailing revenues at IPO. Missed Growth Targets 2021 sales climbed just 37% to $464 M—well below the ~50% growth forecast—when heavy grocery promotions eroded prices. Margin Squeeze Gross margins plunged from ~28% to ~10% as Beyond funded discounts in retail and co-promotions with foodservice chains. 2. Recent Fundamentals & Stabilization Q4 2024 Turnaround Signs Net revenues of $83.1 M, up 4% YoY—the second straight quarterly increase after nine declines. Cost-Cutting Initiatives U.S. plant scale-ups and supply-chain optimization trimmed per-unit costs; SG&A fell ~8% YoY. 2025 Guidance Revenues guided to $320–335 M (flat vs. $326.5 M in 2024); management targets adjusted-EBITDA breakeven by Q4 2025. 3. Recent Initiatives & Partnerships Product Innovation : Fourth-gen Beyond Sausage (avocado oil formulation), “Beyond Sun” links, new pre-seasoned Beyond Steak flavors (chimichurri, Korean BBQ), and Crispy Nuggets for operators. Foodservice Expansion : Beyond Burger® and Nuggets added to cafeterias and chains; Veggie McPlant Nuggets at McDonald’s France; smash-burger trials at Tesco UK; Wendy’s Georgia plant-based burger in 19 locations. International Roll-outs : Retail launch of Beyond Steak in France and UK (Tortilla), expanded Europe/Middle East footprint. Operational Restructuring : Exiting China by mid-2025, laying off ~6–9% of workforce, consolidating co-packers, automating U.S. plants to chase a ~20% gross margin. 4. Valuation & Sentiment Trading at ~0.9× forward sales vs. peers at 1.5–5×. Short interest ~25% of float—one of small-cap’s highest. China exit & layoffs a margin catalyst; gross margin goal ~20% in 2025. New products and foodservice deals reinforce R&D and growth narrative. Q1 2025 earnings (May 7) could ignite a squeeze. Catalysts Q1 2025 earnings (May 7) beat/guide-up. Roll-out of new sausage, steak & nugget products at major retailers. Further high-profile partnerships (Starbucks, Yum! Brands). Final words Beyond Meat’s meteoric rise and fall reflect expectations that outpaced execution. Today, early signs of revenue stabilization, aggressive cost cuts, product innovation, and a clear path to break-even—combined with a sub-1× sales valuation and sky-high short interest—create a classic event-driven contrarian opportunity. The May 7 Q1 2025 report is the next major inflection point.
NASDAQ:BYNDLong
by variable_not_defined
6
btc . tue . recap plan to LONG came to fruition LONG note: as i found wOpen heavily BULLISH - i was eager to get in early and equaly positioned: cw0.5 . 94.200 to cw0 . 92781 entry: 93.975 this left me with not the nicest entry . not all orders were filled . should have favoured increasing order size . one never really knows until it happens . but happy DAY TRADE note: a day trade of nysOpen SFP . 95.400 (to ride down for our LONG IDEA) LONG SUPPORT will show during the day . NICE! . but not taken . it supported our search for LONG though recap wOpen . ASIA . LONG nysOpen . SFP to 5.30pm . LONG tueOpen . ASIA take profit . rotation to cw0.5 . (LONG in favour) nysOpen . idealy tp1 : SFP . possibly rotation . (look out for SHORT and LONG)
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by Dartagnones
1
GBP/USD - Watch out for a possible rejection!The British pound is currently moving towards the upside, showing a gradual but steady climb. However, it is approaching a significant resistance area that could pose a challenge to further gains. ------------------------------- Double top This resistance zone was previously a strong support level before the market formed a double top pattern and subsequently broke below it. As is often the case in technical analysis, this former support has now flipped into resistance, making it a key area where price could face strong selling pressure and potential rejection. ------------------------------- 1h FVG Adding to the confluence, this resistance zone aligns closely with a 1h Fair Value Gap (FVG). FVGs often attract price back into them before a reaction occurs, making this area even more significant for a potential reversal. ------------------------------- Golden Pocket Just below the FVG lies the "Golden Pocket", the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the most recent drawdown. The Golden Pocket is one of the most closely watched Fibonacci levels by traders and is known for its strong influence on price action. Its proximity to the current structure increases the likelihood of a notable reaction, as many market participants will be watching this area closely for signs of rejection. ------------------------------- Conclusion Overall, the combination of previous support-turned-resistance, the 1-hour FVG, and the Golden Pocket retracement forms a high-probability zone where the British pound could encounter heavy resistance and a potential downside move. ------------------------------- Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
Short
by Youriverse
29
Google Ruling Could Be Very Bullish for TTDA U.S. judge has found Google guilty of illegally monopolizing the digital advertising technology markets. The monopolization of both the demand and supply sides has been a long-standing concern for the rest of the digital advertising sector. This ruling may significantly benefit The Trade Desk (TTD), as it operates as an independent demand-side platform. The digital advertising market is projected to exceed $600 billion in 2025, and Google currently believed to be controls nearly 30% of that. Even a 5% slip in Google’s market share, with TTD capturing just 10% of that shift, could nearly double TTD's revenue. As a result, this ruling is can be considered very bullish for TTD, both in the medium and long term. Technically, TTD recently tested the $40 level, a key support that has held since Q4 of 2020, indicating the stock is currently in a strong demand zone. With this news, the likelihood of that support holding and a bullish reversal increases. Analyst consensus reflects an 85.8% upside potential. If the bullish scenario plays out, the horizontal level at $60 and the 200-day moving average could serve as key medium-term targets. From current levels to the 200-day SMA, the potential return is close to 50%.
NASDAQ:TTDLong
by ftdsystem
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 29, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for April 29, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 Anticipation Builds for Key Economic Data: Investors are on edge as they await a series of critical economic reports this week, including GDP growth figures and the April jobs report. Concerns are mounting that recent tariff policies may have begun to weigh on economic performance, with forecasts suggesting a significant slowdown in growth. ​ 💼 Earnings Season in Full Swing: Major corporations are set to report earnings today, including AstraZeneca, Honeywell, Regeneron, PayPal, PACCAR, Kraft Heinz, Ares Capital, SoFi, Zebra Technologies, Incyte, Repligen, and Commvault. Investors will be closely monitoring these reports for insights into how companies are navigating the current economic landscape. 📉 Market Volatility Persists Amid Trade Tensions: The stock market continues to experience volatility as investors grapple with the implications of ongoing trade disputes and tariff implementations. Analysts warn that prolonged trade tensions could further dampen economic growth and corporate profitability. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, April 29: 📦 Advance Economic Indicators (8:30 AM ET): Includes data on international trade in goods, wholesale inventories, and retail inventories for March. These figures provide early insights into trade balances and inventory levels, which are critical for assessing economic momentum. ​ 📊 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET): Measures consumer sentiment regarding current and future economic conditions. A decline in confidence could signal reduced consumer spending, impacting overall economic growth. ​ 💼 JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM ET): Reports the number of job openings, indicating labor market demand. This data helps assess the health of the job market and potential wage pressures. ​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
BTC - 4 Cycles Repeating Itself!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders! This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. The picture says it all! 🔄Is history about to repeat itself? If so, we are currently in Phase 2. 📈 What’s next? A dip toward the $75,000 zone is expected before the next impulsive move begins. 📉🚀 📚 Reminder: Always stick to your trading plan — entry, risk management, and trade management are key. Good luck, and happy trading! All Strategies Are Good, If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
21
Coinbase Global (COIN) – Bridging Crypto and Traditional FinanceCompany Snapshot: Coinbase NASDAQ:COIN is cementing its role as the gateway to the crypto economy, offering secure trading, custody, and institutional-grade financial services—positioning itself for expansion well beyond retail. Key Catalysts: Bank Charter Ambitions 🏦 Exploring a bank charter, potentially evolving into a full-service financial institution Would diversify revenue and boost regulatory credibility, key in the maturing crypto sector Institutional Growth Momentum 📈 Extending credit to major players like CleanSpark Building sticky, high-value relationships and reducing retail dependency Strengthening Financials 💰 14.8% pre-tax margin 39.16% profit contribution margin → Clear operating leverage and path to sustainable, scalable profitability Trusted Brand Advantage 🛡️ Strong institutional trust + regulatory compliance reputation → defensible moat in a volatile industry Investment Outlook: ✅ Bullish Above: $160.00–$162.00 🚀 Target Range: $280.00–$290.00 🔑 Thesis: Regulatory expansion + institutional scale-up + financial efficiency = long-term crypto-finance powerhouse 📢 COIN: Not just a crypto exchange—an evolving financial institution for the digital future. #CryptoFinance #Coinbase #DigitalAssets #Fintech #InstitutionalGrowth #BankingFuture
NASDAQ:COINLong
by Richtv_official
3 Oversold Stocks Poised for a Rally – MAS, IQV & TMOBelow is today’s SmartApingAI snapshot of three highly oversold names showing early signs of a rebound. Scroll down for a quick refresher on each company’s fundamentals, key technicals, and what makes them attractive at current levels. 1. Masco Corp ( NYSE:MAS ) What They Do: Masco designs, manufactures and sells a broad range of home-improvement and new-construction products, including faucets, cabinets, hardware, coatings and architectural products. Customers: • Homeowners tackling renovation projects • Professional contractors and builders Income Source: Primarily through the sale of mid-range to premium fixtures, cabinetry systems and paint/coatings. Geographic Footprint: • ~85% North America • ~15% Europe Product Pricing: Mid-range to premium, with strong brand recognition in kitchen and bath fixtures. SmartAping AI Model Target Price: $81.36 Technical Snapshot: • Broke below—and then bounced off—the $57 weekly support zone • Now trading at $60.42, up from the intra-week low • WiseStrat Macro ASI: deeply oversold at –120, turning bullish • WiseStrat Micro ASI: still bearish, suggesting cautious position sizing Why Watch: Home-improvement spending has held up despite moderating housing starts, and MAS’s disciplined balance sheet and dividend yield (~2%) make it a compelling recovery play if consumer confidence picks up. 2. IQVIA Holdings Inc ( NYSE:IQV ) What They Do: IQVIA provides data analytics, research services and technology solutions that power clinical trials, market research and real-world evidence for the life-sciences industry. Customers: • Pharma and biotech firms • Medical device companies • Healthcare providers and payers Income Source: Subscription and project-based fees for data platforms, consulting and trial execution services. Geographic Footprint: • 50% Americas • 30% EMEA (Europe, Middle East & Africa) • 20% Asia-Pacific Product Pricing: Variable, tailored to project scope—from high-volume data subscriptions to multi-million-dollar trial outsourcing contracts. SmartAping AI Model Target Price: $275.35 Technical Snapshot: • Dropped below the $137 weekly support last week, then staged a relief rally • Currently at $150.28 • WiseStrat Macro ASI: extremely oversold at –127, now in bullish reversal mode • WiseStrat Micro ASI: turning positive, hinting at building short-term momentum Why Watch: With global R&D spend on track to exceed $250 billion this year, IQVIA’s blend of analytics and CRO services is in high demand. A seasonal uptick in trial starts could catalyze upside toward our $275 target. 3. Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc ( NYSE:TMO ) What They Do: Thermo Fisher supplies scientific instruments, reagents and software used in research, diagnostics, manufacturing and safety testing across life-sciences and industrial markets. Customers: • Academic, government and corporate research labs • Clinical and diagnostic facilities • Biopharma manufacturers Income Source: Sales of equipment (from a few hundred to multi-million dollars), consumables, and service contracts. Geographic Footprint: • ~50% North America • ~30% Europe • ~20% Asia-Pacific & other Product Pricing: Ranges widely: entry-level lab kits to high-end sequencers and complete lab automation lines. SmartAping AI Model Target Price: $645.83 Technical Snapshot: • Tested and held the $412.73 weekly support last week, bouncing back to $424.24 • WiseStrat Macro ASI: oversold at –129, now showing bullish tilt • WiseStrat Micro ASI: still negative, cautioning potential retest of $412 Why Watch: Strong long-term secular drivers—gene therapy, personalized medicine and diagnostics—remain intact. A washout in biotech funding fears has left TMO trading at a rare discount to growth peers.
NYSE:TMOLong
by SmartApingAI
1
S&P 500 Rally Exhausted? Watch This Level for the Next Drop!The S&P 500 Index( SP:SPX ) has finally touched the Resistance zone($5,680-$5,500) as I expected in my previous post . The S&P 500 Index is moving near the Resistance zone($5,680-$5,500) , the Resistance line, and Yearly Pivot Point . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that the S&P 500 Index is completing the Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) , and if the uptrend line breaks , we can confirm the end of the Zigzag correction . When the S&P 500 Index started to rise on April 22 , Bitcoin also started to rise at the same time , so a decline in the S&P 500 Index can cause Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) to decline . I expect the S&P 500 Index to drop to at least $5,313 AFTER breaking the uptrend line . Note: If the S&P 500 Index touches $5,712, we can expect more pumps. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD),2-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by pejman_zwin
11
JP MORGAN's long-term bullish trend restored above the 1D MA50.JP Morgan Chase (JPM) broke above its 1D MA50 (red trend-line) last week for the first time since the first week of March and technically put an official end to the 3-month 'Trade War' correction. This correction has technically been the Bearish Leg of the 2.5-year Channel Up. Every time the 1D MA50 broke and closed a 1W candle above it, the stock started the new Bullish Leg of the pattern. The last Bullish Leg was +6% (+48% against +42%) stronger than the previous one before the first pull-back to the 1D MA50 again. As a result, we expect to see $310 (+54%) before this year is over. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYSE:JPMLong
by TradingShot
Senior (SNR) LongSNR is coming off a range support. Price has been ranging since 2021 and has formed a horizontal channel between 115 and 185. I expect price to make a move to the range resistance area and possibly break higher. From a fundamental point of view: ✔ Revenue has increased year-on-year ✔ Gross and net profit margins are steady ✔ The company has sufficient cash and assets to meet its liabilities My only concern is margins are tight. If margins fall any lower, I will immediately close my positions.
LSE:SNRLong
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
NAS100 - Stock Market Waiting for a New Stimulus?!The index is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index continues to move upwards towards the specified supply zone, one can look for further Nasdaq short positions with a risk-reward ratio. Last week, financial markets experienced a brief sigh of relief as U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to ease tensions by signaling a limited retreat in the tariff war with China, sparking hopes for reduced friction. However, this optimism quickly faded once it became clear that Trump’s retreat was neither substantial nor impactful. From Beijing’s perspective, the trade war has transcended economic concerns, becoming an issue of national pride and sovereignty. As a result, China, the world’s second-largest economy, is not retreating as easily as Trump anticipated. This stance has evolved into a significant challenge for the White House. U.S. officials indicated that tariffs of 145% could be reduced within two to three weeks if an agreement is reached. Nonetheless, according to Chinese authorities, negotiations have yet to even begin, raising doubts about Trump’s negotiation tactics. Additionally, other concessions, such as reducing tariffs on American automakers, remain uncertain, and Trump has even threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian car imports. This environment not only fails to clarify U.S. trade policy but also deepens uncertainty for domestic businesses. Although the White House claims it is monitoring markets closely and Trump is eager to strike deals with key partners, these assurances have not alleviated concerns about the future of the U.S. economy. In the upcoming week, critical economic data could either intensify or ease current worries. On Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence Index for April and the JOLTS job openings data for March will be released. The highlight, however, will be the preliminary estimate of GDP growth, scheduled for Wednesday. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasts a 2.2% annualized contraction in the U.S. economy for Q1 2025. Meanwhile, a Reuters survey of economists projects a modest 0.4% growth rate, a significant slowdown from Q4’s 2.4% growth. Accompanying these reports, the ADP private-sector employment data and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index will be published. The core PCE for March is expected to show a monthly increase of 0.1% and an annual rise of 2.5%, down from 2.8% previously. Personal spending is anticipated to maintain its 0.4% monthly growth, reflecting resilient household expenditures. Additionally, on Wednesday, the Chicago PMI and pending home sales figures will be released. Thursday will bring the Challenger layoffs data for April, but market focus will be on the ISM manufacturing PMI, expected to drop from 49 to 47.9. The week’s main event will be Friday’s release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Forecasts suggest job growth will slow from 228,000 in March to 130,000 in April, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. Wages are projected to rise by 0.3%.If NFP and PCE data come in weaker than expected, market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in June could intensify, although the likelihood of a cut in May will remain low. Such data would likely be bearish for the U.S. dollar but could support equity markets if recession fears do not dominate sentiment. Some Federal Reserve officials have suggested that if economic conditions deteriorate significantly, rate cuts could start as early as June. Currently, the Fed has maintained high rates to combat inflation but may lower them to support growth and prevent a sharp rise in unemployment if necessary. Trump’s trade wars pose a dual risk of increasing inflation while hurting employment, complicating the Fed’s monetary policy strategy. Presently, the Fed is in a “wait-and-see” mode, but several officials indicated last week that cuts could begin if economic data worsens. Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, told CNBC on Thursday that the Fed might lower rates starting in June if signs of economic weakening due to Trump’s sporadic tariffs appear. Christopher Waller, a Fed Board member, stated on Bloomberg TV that he could foresee rate cuts if the labor market collapses but does not expect such a scenario before July. On Thursday, Waller remarked, “It would not be surprising to see an increase in layoffs and a higher unemployment rate, especially if major tariffs return. I would expect faster rate cuts once signs of severe labor market deterioration emerge.” These comments highlight the Fed’s current dilemma as it awaits clearer evidence of significant economic fallout from Trump’s trade wars. The Federal Reserve’s mandate is to maintain low inflation and unemployment levels. Its primary tool, the federal funds rate, influences borrowing costs across the economy. The Fed can stimulate growth by lowering rates or curb inflation by raising them. Economists warn that Trump’s tariffs present the risk of simultaneously driving up inflation while damaging employment, forcing the Fed to prioritize which challenge to address first.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
An Important Bullish Pattern Forms on the NIO Share Price ChartAn Important Bullish Pattern Forms on the NIO Share Price Chart Today, the share price of NIO Inc. (NIO), a Chinese manufacturer of "smart" electric vehicles, is trading above $4 – a development that may be viewed as an optimistic scenario following the drop to $3 in the first half of April, marking the lowest level in nearly five years. Why Has NIO’s Share Price Risen? Bullish sentiment has been supported by news that the company: → increased vehicle deliveries by 40.1% compared to the same period last year; → is launching its premium ET9 model, expanding its range of offerings. Additionally, news offering hope that high tariffs in international trade may not hinder the company's growth has also had a positive impact on NIO’s share price. Technical Analysis of NIO’s Share Price Chart From the perspective of candlestick analysis on the daily chart, a "Three White Soldiers" pattern (marked with an arrow) can be observed. This is considered an important bullish signal, as according to Thomas Bulkowski, author of Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts, following the formation of a "Three White Soldiers" pattern, a bearish trend (highlighted by the red channel) reverses to the upside in 82% of cases. However, it is important to bear in mind that resistance may be encountered at: → the $4 per share level, as it previously served as a support; → the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the downward move between 12 March and 8 April. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NYSE:NIO
by FXOpen
1
btc . wOpen . SHORT weakwOpen with a run down to current range volume profile LOW + minor SFP low (liquidity grab) - Stop out LONGS - Catch late retail SHORTS - squeeze them to top range + higher the friday SHORT was good, but didn't catch momentum looking to move TP1 to cW 0.5 retrace level @ 93.809 i see this pump higher . though cautios, because these levels are late LONG entries only looking for LONGS around 93.777 - 92.782 tp1 . 95.843 tp2 . 99.490 if we see a down momentum shift, act accordingly - i believe this to come towards wednesday
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PLong
by Dartagnones
1
The Hidden Power of the Silver Bullet Strategy - Full GuideIntroduction The Silver Bullet Strategy is a high-probability intraday trading technique popularized within the Smart Money Concepts community. It focuses on taking precision trades during specific times of the day when liquidity is most active. Mastering this strategy can help traders consistently capture high-quality setups with minimal risk. In this guide, we will cover: - What the Silver Bullet Strategy is - Key Times to Watch - Entry Models - Target Setting - Risk Management - Real Chart Examples --- What is the Silver Bullet Strategy? The Silver Bullet Strategy is based on trading within a "window" of high-probability price action, typically during key liquidity times. It looks to capture moves after liquidity sweeps, order block mitigations, and Fair Value Gap (FVG) plays. Key Principles: - Focuses on high-probability windows (New York session especially) - Waits for a liquidity grab and displacement - Entries are often on FVGs, OBs, or MSS points --- Silver Bullet Timing Windows Timing is crucial to this strategy. The "Silver Bullet" typically occurs in these windows (New York time): - First Window: 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM (New York) - Second Window: 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM (New York) These times capture major moves post-liquidity sweeps or reversals after news/market manipulation. --- Silver Bullet Entry Model The classic sequence for a Silver Bullet setup: 1. Identify Liquidity Sweep: Look for price to grab liquidity above a swing high or below a swing low. 2. Look for Displacement: A strong move away from the sweep, creating a Fair Value Gap (FVG) or Breaker Block. 3. Entry in FVG or OB: Enter on a retracement into the FVG or Order Block after displacement. 4. Confirmation: Use lower timeframe MSS or BOS to confirm the reversal. Liquidity sweep and FVG at the 5m: MSS + Displacement candle at the 1m: So all 4 steps completed! Example Entry Checklist: - Liquidity sweep - Strong displacement creating an FVG - Price retraces into FVG or OB - MSS/BOS confirmation - Execute trade with tight stop-loss --- Where to Set Targets Targets should be logical based on market structure: - First Target: Recent internal liquidity (equal highs/lows) - Second Target: External liquidity zones (major swing highs/lows) - Optional: Use 1R/2R/3R scaling based on risk-to-reward goals --- Risk Management for Silver Bullet Trades Golden Rules: - Risk less than 1% per Silver Bullet setup - Set stop-loss beyond the liquidity sweep (not too tight, not too loose) or above FVG candle - Stick to one or two trades per window maximum - Avoid revenge trading outside the windows --- Common Mistakes to Avoid - Trading outside the specified time windows - Entering without a confirmed sweep and displacement - Overleveraging because the strategy "looks easy" - Ignoring higher timeframe bias (HTF context is still critical!) Pro Tip: Combine Silver Bullet entries with SMT Divergences, MSS, and IFVGs for maximum confluence. --- Final Thoughts The Silver Bullet Strategy is one of the cleanest ways to approach intraday trading. By mastering liquidity concepts, timing, and precision entries, traders can catch powerful moves with strong risk-to-reward setups. Be patient, wait for your window, and always trade with discipline. Happy Sniping!
Education
by Louigi_24
44
BTC - FVG + Golden Pocket Confluence = Short SetupA strategic high-timeframe imbalance meeting Fibonacci retracement, setting up a potential bearish reaction. --- 1. FVG + Golden Pocket — High-Value Supply Zone The red shaded area defines a significant confluence: - Fair Value Gap (FVG): Left behind by an aggressive drop, representing inefficiency where price is likely to react. - Golden Pocket (0.618–0.65): High-probability Fibonacci retracement level, often acting as a magnet for liquidity before continuation. This zone is primed to act as strong supply if price retraces into it. --- 2. 0.618–0.65 Fibonacci Retracement — Prime Rejection Zone This Fib pocket offers: - A technical level where aggressive buyers previously failed to hold ground. - A common area where institutional players offload positions, triggering sell-offs. A reaction inside this range aligns with broader bearish continuation expectations. --- 3. FVG Rebalance — Liquidity Collection As price fills the inefficiency: - It completes the rebalancing process, removing the incentive for further upward movement. - Typically, liquidity grabs inside the FVG precede a sharp move back toward lower liquidity zones. This supports the short bias post-rebalancing. --- 4. Expected Price Behavior — Liquidity Trap Mechanics The projected move mirrors classical smart money behavior: - Step 1: Induce late buyers into the FVG + Golden Pocket area. - Step 2: Trigger a quick rejection after liquidity collection. - Step 3: Resume downward pressure as imbalance is resolved. The entire flow is designed to punish inefficient entries and reward patience. --- 5. Market Context Alignment - FVG and Golden Pocket together strengthen the case for a precise, controlled rejection. - Emphasis on liquidity-driven movements keeps the focus sharp on execution and timing. --- 6. Summary: - FVG + Golden Pocket = Strong Supply Confluence - High-Probability Short Setup Based on Rebalancing and Liquidity Collection - Structured, Smart Money-Driven Price Behavior Expected Tactically clean setup following liquidity engineering and imbalance theories.
Short
by Louigi_24
24
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 28 – May 2, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 President Trump's 100th Day in Office: Wednesday marks President Trump's 100th day of his second term. His administration's protectionist tariffs continue to influence global markets and political landscapes, with notable impacts observed in Canada, Australia, and the UK. 📉 Trade Tensions and Economic Indicators: Investors are closely monitoring the effects of recent U.S. tariffs on economic performance. Key data releases this week, including GDP and employment figures, will provide insights into the economy's resilience amid these trade policies. ​ 💼 Major Corporate Earnings: This week features earnings reports from major companies, including Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, ExxonMobil, and McDonald's. These reports will offer a glimpse into how large corporations are navigating current economic challenges. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, April 28: 🏠 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership (10:00 AM ET): Provides data on rental and homeowner vacancy rates, offering insights into housing market dynamics. ​ 📅 Tuesday, April 29: 📈 Advance Economic Indicators (8:30 AM ET): Includes data on international trade in goods, wholesale inventories, and retail inventories for March. ​ 📊 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET): Measures consumer sentiment regarding current and future economic conditions. ​ 💼 JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM ET): Reports the number of job openings, indicating labor market demand. 📅 Wednesday, April 30: 📈 GDP (Q1 Advance Estimate) (8:30 AM ET): Provides an early estimate of economic growth for the first quarter. ​ 💳 Personal Income and Outlays (10:00 AM ET): Includes data on personal income, consumer spending, and the PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. 🏭 Chicago PMI (9:45 AM ET): Assesses business conditions in the Chicago region, reflecting manufacturing sector health. ​ 📅 Thursday, May 1: 🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET): Reports total spending on construction projects, indicating economic activity in the sector. ​ 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Measures the number of new filings for unemployment benefits, reflecting labor market conditions. ​ 🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET): Provides insight into the manufacturing sector's health through a survey of purchasing managers. ​ 📅 Friday, May 2: 👷 Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET): Reports the number of jobs added or lost in the economy, excluding the farming sector. ​ 📉 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET): Indicates the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment. ​ 🏭 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET): Measures the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods, indicating manufacturing activity. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Quantum's Walmart (WMT) Trading Guide 4/28/25WMT’s weekly outlook balances its defensive resilience against macroeconomic headwinds, with a comprehensive synthesis of technical, market, and strategic factors guiding its trajectory for weekly options contracts. The FAME framework underscores WMT’s long-term bullish potential, driven by robust fundamentals (+5% revenue, $0.58 EPS, 21% e-commerce growth) and adaptability (AI, Walmart+), positioning it as a resilient player in a risk-off regime. However, elevated yields (10-year 4.255%, 20-year 4.738%, 30-year 4.721%) and a stable DXY at 99.58 amplify tariff pressures and margin concerns, capping upside and reinforcing a cautious stance. A tactical long bias is favored for weekly contracts, targeting a bounce from $94.36 to $96.47–$98.50, with a short stance viable below $88.50 if support fails. Technical implications highlight bullish momentum on daily (RSI ~40, Stochastic ~28) and weekly (RSI ~44, Stochastic ~32) timeframes, with oversold conditions signaling a rebound potential for weekly contracts if $94.36 holds. Monthly neutral momentum (RSI ~50) suggests consolidation, requiring a breakout above $96.47 to confirm bullish strength. This supports a short-term bounce but advises monitoring for sustained moves. Market influence implications reflect a risk-off environment, with high yields and a stable DXY increasing import costs, particularly amid tariff uncertainty from WMT’s upcoming Trump meeting. The VIX at 24.84 amplifies volatility, favoring WMT’s defensive appeal but heightening risks. WMT’s Q3 FY25 strength and e-commerce growth provide stability, supporting resilience near $94.36. OFD summary and implications reveal bearish pressure from Vanna (-$0.04), Charm (-$0.02), and DEX (-$0.06), driven by put-heavy flow and hedging demand tied to tariff fears. However, GEX (+$0.08) at the $95 strike pins price, stabilizing volatility and supporting a neutral-to-bullish bounce for weekly contracts if $94.36 holds, aligning with oversold technicals. Edge insights bolster the case for a bounce, with institutional buying at $94–$95 signaling accumulation, defensive retail sector strength outperforming cyclicals, and low short interest (1.4%) offering squeeze potential above $96.47. These factors enhance confidence in a tactical long bias for weekly contracts, provided support holds. Strategic outlook implications emphasize consolidation near $95.09, with $94.36 as a critical pivot. A break below risks $88.50, driven by tariff fears and bearish options flow, while a move above $96.47 targets $98.50, fueled by oversold signals and institutional support. The VIX at 24.84 and put-heavy options flow underscore volatility, but WMT’s defensive positioning mitigates downside, favoring a bounce in a risk-off regime. In summary, WMT’s weekly outlook hinges on defending $94.36, with oversold technicals, GEX pinning, and institutional buying supporting a bounce to $96.47–$98.50 for weekly contracts. Tariff risks, high yields, and DXY stability maintain a risk-off backdrop, capping upside and requiring vigilance for a break below support, which could shift bias to bearish. This balanced approach leverages WMT’s defensive strengths while navigating weekly volatility, aligning with Buffett’s preference for resilient businesses with tactical opportunities.
NYSE:WMT
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
S&P 500: Key Levels and Potential ScenariosThis analysis of S&P500 will explore both bullish and bearish scenarios, incorporating key levels and considering possible market and crowd psychology. Bullish Scenario: Potential Uptrend Resumption From a bullish perspective, if the S&P 500 maintains a position above the 5482 level, it could suggest a potential end to the current correction and a resumption of the major uptrend. A hold above 5482 might reinforce bullish sentiment, encouraging further buying activity, as traders may view this as confirmation of renewed strength. The index could then potentially retest the 5801 level, where it's possible that the index may encounter resistance on the first attempt. A successful break above 5801 would then open the path towards the 6135 zone, which represents a key upside target. Bearish Scenario: Potential Retest of Support Zones Conversely, if the S&P 500 fails to hold above the 5482 support level might trigger increased selling pressure, as traders liquidate positions. The index could then potentially retest the 5092 to 4833 support zone. This zone represents a critical area where buyers may step in, but a break below it would signal further weakness. Concluding Remarks In conclusion, the S&P 500's price action around the identified key levels will be crucial in determining its short- to medium-term direction. A sustained hold above 5482 could favor a bullish continuation towards 5801 and potentially 6135, while a break below 5482 might lead to a retest of the 5092 to 4833 support zone.
SP:SPXLong
by AccumulationPro
Was this the best buying opportunity since 2011?Sure, here's a rewritten version of your text in an engaging tone: "Have you ever heard of the Zweig Breadth Thrust? Well, let me tell you, it’s an incredible metric that can really shed some light on the current market situation! So, what would it take for me to believe that this bounce isn't just another bear market rally? My first step would be to dive into the breadth indicators and look for signs of that elusive breadth thrust. Think of a breadth thrust like a rocket taking off. You need a strong initial boost to break free of gravity's grip. If the thrust is weak, the rocket can’t escape, and the same applies to stock market reversals. When we see a robust breadth thrust, that's a signal that a significant reversal is underway. Without it, we could be facing another false bounce. Now, let’s talk numbers! As of Friday, April 25th, the SPX has surged an impressive 14.2% from its recent lows, and while that’s quite a leap, it’s essential to keep it in perspective. Just think back—this index was down 21.35% from its all-time high earlier in February during the panic sell-off. Now, with the recent strength, it’s only 10.75% off its peak. The Zweig Breadth Thrust is calculated based on the 10-day EMA of NYSE Advances divided by the sum of Advances and Declines. A bullish signal pops up when the ZBT shifts from below 0.40 to above 0.615 within just ten days or less. Keep an eye on that—it might just help us navigate these choppy waters!" On the monthly chart, it’s clear that what we’ve been seeing in the broader economy (you know, Main Street) is actually showing us some bearish divergence—a concept I've mentioned in my previous ideas. Since 2009, we've had four notable instances on the Monthly chart where the ZBT dipped below 0.40, only to bounce back up past the 0.6 mark. Remember back in November 2011? That was when we got a significant signal with a low reading of 0.31, which climbed back to 0.62 by February 2013. That surge sparked a bull run that peaked in February 2020! So, the takeaway here is that this breadth thrust is generating the positive momentum we need to reach new stock market highs this year. Exciting times ahead!
SP:SPXLong
by BallaJi