Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Shares Surge 13%Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Shares Surge 13%
The Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) stock chart shows:
→ Friday’s closing price rose over 13% from Thursday’s close;
→ The stock has surged more than 80% from its February low;
→ Friday’s close marked the highest level since late October 2024.
SMCI’s rally comes despite an 11 February quarterly report that missed expectations:
→ EPS: $0.59 vs. expected $0.60;
→ Revenue: $5.65bn vs. expected $5.72bn.
Bullish sentiment is driven by (according to media reports):
→ A forecasted $40bn revenue for FY2026, 70% higher than projected FY2025 revenue;
→ Reports indicate that SMCI shares are unlikely to be delisted from NASDAQ due to financial reporting issues (which we previously discussed when analysing the SMCI stock chart on 3 December);
→ Investor enthusiasm for AI and rapid data centre construction to support it.
Technical Analysis of SMCI Stock
The price has reached the key psychological level of $50 per share:
→ Historical price action at this level has often triggered significant reversals;
→ A bullish cup-and-handle pattern is forming.
A higher second low suggests growing demand strength, potentially leading to a bullish breakout above $50.
SMCI Stock Price Forecast
Analysts remain cautious. According to Yahoo Finance:
→ Only 2 of 6 analysts recommend buying SMCI shares;
→ The 12-month average price target is $47.91.
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Stocksanalysis
Costco Wholesale: Robust Earnings Support Bullish Trend◉ Technical Observation
● The stock price is exhibiting a strong uptrend, moving within an ascending parallel channel.
● A recent breakout from a rounding bottom pattern has propelled the price higher, nearing the upper boundary of the channel.
◉ Two Possible Scenarios
1. Rejection and Pullback: The price may face resistance at the upper end of the channel, leading to a potential decline.
2. Breakout and Continuation: Alternatively, the price may break through the upper boundary, sustaining the uptrend and driving the stock higher.
◉ Q1 FY25 Result Highlights
● Net Income: Up 13.1% to $1.79 billion, compared to $1.58 billion in Q1 FY24.
● Comparable Sales: Increased by 5.2% in the US and 5.8% in Canada.
● E-commerce: Comparable sales soared by 13%, with adjusted e-commerce comparable sales rising to 13.2%.
● Membership Revenue: Grew by 7.8% to $1.166 billion, reflecting strong customer loyalty.
● Gross Margin: Improved by 24 basis points to 11.28%.
Investing in US Construction & Engineering: PWR vs FIX vs PRIM◉ Abstract
The U.S. construction and engineering sector is experiencing a significant boom, driven by infrastructure investments, rapid urbanization, and the rise of renewable energy projects. Leading companies such as Quanta Services NYSE:PWR , Comfort Systems USA NYSE:FIX , and Primoris Services Corporation NYSE:PRIM are capitalizing on these trends, each demonstrating strong performance. Among them, PRIM stands out with exceptional financial health and attractive valuation metrics, positioning it as a compelling choice for investors. PWR and FIX are also performing well, benefiting from the sector's growth momentum.
With substantial government spending and ongoing urbanization fueling demand, the sector presents promising opportunities for long-term investors. However, thorough research, clear investment goals, and effective risk management remain crucial to navigating this dynamic landscape successfully.
◉ Introduction
The U.S. construction and engineering sector is a vital component of the nation's economy, driving infrastructure development, urbanization, and economic growth. It encompasses various activities, including residential, commercial, industrial, and infrastructure construction, as well as engineering services for design, planning, and project management. Recent trends shaping the sector include urbanization, sustainability, technological advancements, and government investments in infrastructure.
◉ Key Drivers of Growth
1. Infrastructure Investments: $1.2 trillion allocated for roads, bridges, railways, and clean energy infrastructure.
2. Renewable Energy: Funding boost for solar and wind farms driving demand for construction services.
3. Urbanization: Rapid urbanization fueling demand for residential and commercial construction.
4. Sustainability: Emphasis on green building, energy efficiency, and renewable energy projects.
5. Technological Advancements: Adoption of BIM, drones, and automation improving efficiency and reducing costs.
6. Resilience and Disaster Recovery: Demand for resilient infrastructure and disaster recovery projects due to natural disasters.
◉ Key Players in the Sector
1. Fluor Corporation NYSE:FLR : A global leader in engineering and construction, focusing on energy, chemicals, and infrastructure projects.
2. AECOM NYSE:ACM : A multinational firm providing design, consulting, and construction services for infrastructure, transportation, and environmental projects.
3. Quanta Services NYSE:PWR : A leading provider of specialized infrastructure services for the electric power, oil, and gas industries, including renewable energy projects.
4. Comfort Systems USA NYSE:FIX : A major player in mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) services for commercial and industrial buildings.
5. Primoris Services Corporation NYSE:PRIM : Provides construction services for energy, utilities, and infrastructure projects, with a growing focus on renewable energy.
This report provides a comparative analysis of Quanta Services, Comfort Systems USA, and Primoris Services Corporation, examining their competitive dynamics in the U.S. construction and engineering sector.
◉ Technical Standings
➖ The charts for PWR, FIX, and PRIM exhibit similar trends, with stock prices currently experiencing a strong uptrend.
➖ Based on this momentum, it is expected that this trend will persist, driving prices even higher in the near future.
◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis
● PWR
➖ Q3 FY24 sales: $6.493 billion, up 16% sequentially and 15.5% YoY.
➖ Q3 EBITDA: $619 million, a significant increase from $463 million in Q2 and $542 million in Q3 FY23.
● FIX
➖ Q3 sales: $1.812 billion, flat sequentially but up 30% YoY.
➖ Q3 EBITDA: $238 million, up from $223 million in Q2 and $155 million in Q3 FY23.
● PRIM
➖ Q3 sales: $1.649 billion, an 8% YoY increase and the highest quaterly sales ever.
➖ Q3 EBITDA: $123 million, up from $112 million in Q2.
◉ Valuation
● P/E Ratio
➖ PWR stands at a P/E ratio of 54.2x.
➖ FIX is at a P/E ratio of 32.3x.
➖ PRIM shows a P/E ratio of 24.3x.
◾ These numbers indicate that PRIM is considerably undervalued when compared to its competitors.
● P/B Ratio
➖ PWR's P/B ratio stands at 6.2x.
➖ FIX's P/B ratio is 9.5x.
➖ On the other hand, PRIM's P/B ratio is significantly lower at 3x.
● PEG Ratio
➖ PWR boasts a PEG ratio of 3.54.
➖ FIX’S PEG ratio is recorded at 0.66.
➖ PRIM, meanwhile, has a PEG ratio of 0.90.
◾ Analyzing the PEG ratios reveals that FIX is currently undervalued relative to its peers.
◉ Cash Flow Analysis
All three companies have reported significant improvements in operating cash flow for Q3 FY24:
➖ PWR saw an 82% increase to $740 million (LTM), up from $391 million (LTM) in Q3 FY23.
➖ FIX reported a 41% rise to $302 million (LTM), compared to $214 million (LTM) in Q3 FY23.
➖ PRIM achieved a 133% increase to $416 million (LTM), up from $178 million (LTM) in Q3 FY23.
◉ Debt Analysis
➖ PWR has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.6.
➖ FIX shows a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.19.
➖ In contrast, PRIM has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.73.
◾ FIX boasts the lowest debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a stronger balance sheet and reduced reliance on debt financing compared to its peers.
◉ Top Shareholders
● PWR
➖ The Vanguard Group - 11.4%
➖ BlackRock - 7.62%
● FIX
➖ The Vanguard Group - 10.5%
➖ BlackRock - 14%
● PRIM
➖ The Vanguard Group - 11.5%
➖ BlackRock - 10.4%
◉ Conclusion
After a comprehensive analysis of the major players in the U.S. Construction & Engineering sector, including an in-depth review of technical capabilities and financial performance, Primoris Services Corporation NYSE:PRIM emerges as a standout candidate. The company’s robust financial health, supported by strong cash reserves, positions it well to navigate challenges such as debt concerns.
The sector as a whole is poised for significant growth, driven by massive government spending on infrastructure and the ongoing trend of rapid urbanization. For investors, this presents a compelling opportunity. However, it is essential to conduct thorough research, establish clear investment objectives, and maintain a long-term perspective to capitalize on this growth while effectively managing risks.
The Fizz is Back: Coca-Cola's Stock on the Rebound● The price had encountered several resistance points around the $62 mark in the past.
● Once it broke through this barrier, the stock surged to reach a record high of $72.5.
● However, it then faced a significant pullback, dropping approximately 16% before finding support at the breakout area.
● Recently, the price has begun to climb once more, setting its sights on the previous all-time high, with expectations of surpassing it.
Ralph Lauren: Elevate Your Wealth with the Essence of Luxury◉ Abstract
Ralph Lauren is thriving in the booming luxury apparel market. The company, founded in 1967, has a market cap of $11.83 billion and generates nearly 44% of its revenue from North America, totaling $2.93 billion. The industry is valued at approximately $110.13 billion in 2024 and projected to reach $151.32 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 6.56%.
Recent technical analysis shows Ralph Lauren's stock has outperformed the NYSE Composite index with a 66% annual return. Despite a slight revenue increase of 2.9% year-on-year, EBITDA soared to $1,024 million, reflecting strong financial health. With a current P/E ratio of 17.4x, Ralph Lauren presents an attractive investment opportunity amidst rising global wealth and consumer demand for luxury goods.
Read full analysis here . . .
◉ Introduction
The global luxury apparel market is currently experiencing significant growth, driven by various factors including increasing disposable incomes, brand loyalty, and the rising influence of social media on consumer behaviour.
Here’s a detailed overview of the market size and growth outlook:
◉ Current Market Size
According to Mordor Intelligence, the global luxury apparel market was valued at approximately USD 110.13 billion in 2024, with expectations to grow to USD 151.32 billion by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 6.56%.
◉ Growth Drivers
● Increasing Wealth: The rising number of millionaires globally and growing middle-class affluence, particularly in regions like Asia-Pacific, are significant contributors to luxury apparel demand.
● Consumer Trends: There is a growing perception that luxury goods enhance social status, which fuels consumer interest in high-end fashion.
● Digital Influence: Enhanced online shopping experiences and the effective use of social media for marketing have opened new avenues for luxury brands to reach consumers.
◉ Regional Insights
● Europe
Dominant Market: Holds a market share of approximately 34% to 43%. The presence of numerous luxury brands and high purchasing power among consumers drive demand, supported by significant tourist spending on luxury goods.
● North America
Strong Demand: The U.S. is a key player, characterized by a wealthy consumer base and increasing brand loyalty, particularly among younger generations who view luxury items as status symbols.
● Asia-Pacific
Fastest Growing Market: Anticipated to grow rapidly due to rising disposable incomes and brand awareness, especially in countries like China and India.
● Latin America
Emerging Potential: Currently holds a smaller market share but shows promise for growth as consumer awareness and travel increase.
● Middle East & Africa
Limited Contribution: This region contributes the least to the luxury apparel market, although countries like the UAE are seeing growth due to tourism.
The overall outlook for the luxury apparel market remains optimistic, supported by evolving consumer preferences and increasing global wealth.
Amidst the global luxury apparel market's promising growth prospects, we have identified Ralph Lauren as a prime opportunity for investment. With its robust financial performance and impressive technical indicators, Ralph Lauren is well-positioned to propel success.
◉ Company Overview
Ralph Lauren Corporation NYSE:RL is a renowned American fashion company known for its high-quality, luxury lifestyle products. Founded in 1967 by the iconic designer Ralph Lauren, the company has become a global symbol of timeless style and sophistication. The company offers a wide range of products, including apparel, footwear, accessories, home goods, fragrances, and hospitality. Ralph Lauren's iconic polo shirt and strong brand identity have contributed to its success, making it a global leader in the luxury fashion industry.
◉ Investment Advice
💡 Buy Ralph Lauren Corporation NYSE:RL
● Buy Range - 190 - 193
● Sell Target - 245 - 250
● Potential Return - 27% - 30%
● Approx Holding Period - 8-10 months
◉ Market Capitalization - $11.83 B
◉ Peer Companies
● Tapestry NYSE:TPR - $10.59 B
● Levi Strauss NYSE:LEVI - $8.57 B
● PVH Corp. NYSE:PVH - $5.44 B
● Columbia Sportswear Company NASDAQ:COLM - $4.87 B
◉ Relative Strength
The chart clearly illustrates that Ralph Lauren has greatly outperformed the NYSE Composite index, achieving an impressive annual return of 66%.
◉ Technical Aspects
● Monthly Chart
➖ The monthly chart clearly shows that the stock price faced several rejections near the 190 level, which ultimately triggered a significant drop, brought the price down to the 66 level.
➖ Afterward, the price experienced various fluctuations and, after a prolonged consolidation phase, developed an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern.
➖ Upon breaking out, the price surged upward but encountered resistance again at the previous resistance zone.
➖ However, after a pullback, the stock has successfully surpassed this resistance for the first time in almost 11 years.
● Daily Chart
➖ On the daily chart, the price has formed a Rectangle pattern following a brief consolidation phase and has recently made a breakout.
➖ If the price can hold above the 190 level, we can expect a bullish movement in the coming days.
◉ Revenue Breakdown - Location Wise
Ralph Lauren Corporation is a global luxury brand with a strong presence in various regions.
➖ North America remains Ralph Lauren's biggest market, contributing nearly 44% of its total revenue, which amounts to $2.93 billion.
➖ In Europe , the brand is seeing consistent growth, with revenue reaching around $2 billion, making up about 30% of total earnings.
➖ Asia , especially China, is becoming a key player for Ralph Lauren, generating approximately $1.58 billion, or 24% of total revenue.
◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis
● Year-on-year
➖ In the fiscal year 2024, the company achieved a modest revenue increase of 2.9%, totaling $6,631 million, compared to $6,443 million in the prior year.
➖ On the other hand, EBITDA growth has been remarkable, soaring to $1,024 million from $801 million in FY23. The current EBITDA margin stands at an impressive 15.5%.
➖ Additionally, diluted earnings per share (EPS) experienced a substantial year-over-year rise of 28%, reaching $9.71 in FY24, up from $7.58 in FY22.
● Quarter-on-quarter
➖ In terms of quarterly performance, the company reported a decline in sales over the last three quarters, with the most recent quarter showing sales of $1,512 million, down from $1,568 million in March 2024 and $1,934 million in December 2023.
➖ Nevertheless, EBITDA demonstrated significant growth in the June quarter, climbing to $265 million from $176 million in March 2023.
◉ Valuation
● P/E Ratio
➖ Current P/E Ratio vs. Median P/E Ratio
The current price-to-earnings ratio for this stock stands at 17.4x, which is notably elevated compared to its four-year median P/E ratio of 5.7x. This suggests that the stock is presently overvalued.
➖ Current P/E vs. Peer Average P/E
When evaluating the stock's Price-To-Earnings Ratio of 17.4x, it shows a more attractive valuation, as it is lower than the peer average of 25.5x.
➖ Current P/E vs. Industry Average P/E
RL is positioned at a more appealing price point, with a Price-To-Earnings Ratio of 17.4x, which is significantly less than the US Luxury industry's average of 19.x.
● P/B Ratio
➖ Current P/B vs. Peer Average P/B
The current P/B ratio reveals that the stock is considerably higher than its peers, with a ratio of 5x compared to the peer average of 3x.
➖ Current P/B vs. Industry Average P/B
In comparison to the industry average, RL's current P/B ratio of 5x indicates that it is substantially overvalued, as the industry average is only 2.2x.
● PEG Ratio
A PEG ratio of 0.54 suggests that the stock is undervalued relative to its expected earnings growth.
◉ Cash Flow Analysis
In fiscal year 2024, operational cash flow experienced remarkable growth, reaching $1,069 million, a substantial increase from $411 million in fiscal year 2023.
◉ Debt Analysis
The company currently holds a long term debt of $1,141 million with a total equity of $2,367 million, makes long-term debt to equity of 48%.
◉ Top Shareholders
➖ The Vanguard Group has significantly increased its investment in this stock, now owning an impressive 8.23% stake, which marks a 3.9% rise since the end of the March quarter.
➖ Meanwhile, Blackrock holds a stake of around 4.11% in the company.
◉ Conclusion
After a thorough evaluation, we find that Ralph Lauren Corporation is strategically poised to thrive in the expanding luxury apparel market, driven by increasing disposable incomes and a growing appetite for high-end products.
Good Results makes Reliance a great oppertunityReliance Industries Ltd. engages in hydrocarbon exploration and production, petroleum refining and marketing, petrochemicals, retail, FMCG, and telecommunications, Digital Entertainment and Media. Reliance is one of the biggest Indian companies and vivid sectoral presence.
Reliance Industries Ltd. CMP is 1302.35. The Positive aspects of the company are Company with Low Debt, Company with Zero Promoter Pledge, Annual Net Profits improving for last 2 years. The Negative aspects of the company are high Valuation (P.E. = 25.5) and Declining Net Cash Flow.
Entry can be taken after closing above 1303 Targets in the stock will be 1355, 1378, 1414 and 1451. The long-term target in the stock will be 1522 and 1556+ Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 1184.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Quantum Corporation: Major Levels to WatchGood morning, trading family!
Quantum Corporation is at a crucial point:
Above $34.50: A breakout could push us to $50 or even higher.
Below $29: The downside opens up to the $6–$12 range.
Stay sharp as these levels could define the next big move.
This Sunday, I’m hosting a Master Your Mind Traders Class to help you build a stronger trading mindset and strategy. Seats are limited—send me a DM for details!
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
Micron Technology: Bearish or Ready to Break Out?Good morning, trading family!
Micron (MU) is at an important spot right now:
If we move lower, I’m watching $97 and $96 as key levels, with potential for more downside.
If we hold above $100, there’s room to climb to $102, $103, and $104. A break above $104 could mean a smoother ride higher.
I’m also hosting a Master Your Mind Traders Class this Sunday to help you refine your skills and mindset. Want to join? Send me a message for details.
Kris/ Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
Semiconductor Stocks Blast Off as Foxconn's Revenue Takes FlightA perfect storm of positive factors sent semiconductor stocks soaring, with major players experiencing significant gains. Here are the key drivers behind this surge:
1. Foxconn's Record-Breaking Revenue: A 15% year-over-year revenue increase and a 42% rise in December sales ignited investor optimism in the sector.
2. AI Demand Anticipation: Foxconn's strong results underscored ongoing demand for AI technologies, fueling expectations for future growth in the semiconductor space.
3. Microsoft's $80 Billion AI Investment: The tech giant's commitment to AI-enabled data centers further boosted expectations for increased demand for specialized chips, particularly from Nvidia.
The impact on leading semiconductor companies was substantial:
● Nvidia Corporation NASDAQ:NVDA : Up +3.4%
● Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD : Up +3.3%
● Micron Technology NASDAQ:MU : Up +10.5%
As the demand for AI technologies continues to grow, semiconductor companies are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend, driving growth and innovation in the sector.
Atlassian | Transitioning from Server to Cloud & Now to AI Atlassian’s Secret to Success: Free Stuff, Fancy Upgrades, and Lots of AI
In 2020, Atlassian, the Australian software leader known for tools like Jira and Confluence, initiated its transition to a cloud-first model, phasing out its legacy Server business. This strategic pivot has reshaped its revenue model and driven significant growth.
Cloud Momentum
Atlassian’s Cloud revenue surged 31% year-over-year in Q1 FY25 to $792 million, surpassing investor expectations. The transition highlights the company’s agility and sustained expansion in a competitive market.
SaaS Growth Strategy
Atlassian employs a "land-and-expand" SaaS model, attracting customers with low-cost or free products and encouraging upgrades to premium features and additional solutions.
Key Highlights
-💻 300,000+ customers, including 84% of Fortune 500 companies, spanning software development, IT, and business teams.
- 🏢 524 enterprise customers generating $MIL:1M+ ARR, reflecting deeper engagement with large organizations.
-🤖 AI adoption: A 10x increase in Atlassian Intelligence usage this year has driven premium upgrades and enhanced productivity.
Innovation and Expansion
Atlassian continues to focus on product-led growth with recent launches like Atlassian Focus for enterprise strategy and Advanced Editions , offering premium features for existing tools.
Financial Perspective
-Profitability challenges: Q1 FY25 saw a $32 million operating loss (3% loss margin), a slight decline from last year. This is due to sustained R&D investments (51% of revenue, +2pp YoY), reflecting a long-term growth strategy over immediate profitability.
-Server phase-out: Ending the Server business has boosted cloud and data center revenue.
-Data Center growth: Revenue grew 38% YoY to $336 million, serving as a transitional solution for customers not yet ready for full cloud migration. Atlassian is positioning Data Center as a stepping stone rather than a permanent option.
Future Outlook
Atlassian is well placed to leverage rising demand for cloud based tools and AI advancements. However, challenges persist, including macroeconomic uncertainties, competition, and profitability pressures.
While generative AI offers new opportunities, it also presents risks such as increased competition and the potential slowing of paid seat growth, a critical revenue stream. Atlassian’s ability to navigate these challenges will determine its long-term success in this transformative phase.
Micron ($MU) is Poised for Action – Here’s What’s ComingMicron is sitting at a major decision point, and the next move could be big. Here’s the game plan:
If we drop below $84: Things could get bumpy, with possible corrections to $74, $70, or even $63–$64.
If we break above $93: The sky’s the limit, with targets at $100, $110, and maybe even $138 on the horizon.
This is one to watch closely. Big moves are coming, so stay sharp and ready to ride the wave!
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
Micron ($MU) is Poised for Action – Here’s What’s ComingMicron is sitting at a major decision point, and the next move could be big. Here’s the game plan:
If we drop below $84: Things could get bumpy, with possible corrections to $74, $70, or even $63–$64.
If we break above $93: The sky’s the limit, with targets at $100, $110, and maybe even $138 on the horizon.
This is one to watch closely. Big moves are coming, so stay sharp and ready to ride the wave!
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
Atour: The Smart Way to Invest in China's Hospitality Market◉ Abstract
Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited is taking advantage of China's fast-growing hotel industry. The hospitality sector of China is expected to reach $157.46 billion by 2032, growing at a rate of 8.23% each year. This growth comes from a strong economy, more people moving to cities, and an increase in travel. Atour uses a smart business model that allows for quick expansion while keeping costs low. They offer a variety of hotel brands and even sell sleep-related products.
In FY23, Atour's sales jumped to $657.4 million, a 106% increase from the previous year, along with strong earnings growth. With over 83 million members in its loyalty program and a focus on great customer experiences, Atour is set for continued success in China's hospitality market.
Overview of the Hotel Service Industry in China.
Continue reading full article here:
◉ Overview of the Hotel Service Industry in China
China's hotel service industry is on the cusp of a remarkable growth spurt, fueled by the country's soaring economy, rapid urbanization, and an unprecedented surge in domestic and foreign travel.
● Projected Market Value: $157.46 billion by 2032
● Growth Rate: 8.23% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2032
◉ What's Driving this Growth?
● Economic Growth: China's economy continues to expand, boosting disposable incomes and travel budgets.
● Urbanization: As more Chinese citizens move to cities, they're seeking better travel experiences and accommodations.
● Increased Travel: Both domestic and foreign travel are on the rise, driving demand for hotels and travel services.
As China's hotel service industry experiences rapid growth, Atour Lifestyle Holdings NASDAQ:ATAT Company has established itself as a prominent force in the market. By delivering a unique blend of comfort, style, and local charm, Atour is redefining the hospitality landscape in China.
Atour's strategic focus on mid-to-upscale hotels enables the company to provide immersive local experiences, innovative design, and exceptional service. This distinctive approach has fostered a loyal customer base and positioned Atour for continued success in China's burgeoning hotel market.
◉ Investment Advice
💡 Buy Atour Lifestyle Holdings NASDAQ:ATAT
● Buy Range - 27 - 27.5
● Sell Target - 36 - 37
● Potential Return - 30% - 35%
● Approx Holding Period - 12-14 months
◉ Business Model
Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited utilizes an asset-light, franchise-oriented business model that enables rapid expansion and operational efficiency in China's hotel industry. Here are the key components:
● Manachised Model: Atour primarily operates through a "manachised" model, where franchisees handle capital expenditures and hotel leases while Atour provides management and training. This approach minimizes operational costs and maximizes revenue from franchise royalties.
● Diverse Brand Portfolio: The company offers various hotel brands, including Atour, Atour S, Atour X, and ZHOTEL, catering to different market segments and customer preferences.
● Retail Integration: Atour has expanded into retail by selling sleep-related products, generating significant revenue and enhancing the guest experience.
● Customer Loyalty Programs: The A-CARD loyalty program boasts over 63 million members, driving customer retention and engagement through various benefits.
● Digital Capabilities: Atour leverages technology for a seamless customer experience, allowing easy online bookings and efficient communication during stays.
● Focus on Experience: The company emphasizes delivering unique lifestyle experiences through thematic hotels and tailored offerings.
◉ Key Competitors
1. Huazhu Group (H World Group): A leading competitor with over 10,150 hotels, Huazhu operates a similar manachised model and has been expanding rapidly, making it one of the largest players in the market.
2. Jin Jiang International: With a vast portfolio exceeding 12,000 hotels, Jin Jiang is another major competitor that employs a mix of franchising and management strategies.
3. GreenTree Hospitality Group: Focused on midscale accommodations, GreenTree operates around 3,000 hotels and utilizes a franchise-based model with manachised elements.
4. BTG Homeinns Hotels: Known for its budget offerings, BTG Homeinns has a significant presence with thousands of hotels primarily targeting domestic travelers.
5. Plateno Group (7 Days Inn): Operating primarily in the budget segment, Plateno utilizes a manachised approach to grow its network of over 3,000 hotels.
These companies dominate the domestic market, while international brands like InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) and Shangri-La Hotels & Resorts lead the high-end segment.
◉ Strategic Initiatives Powering Atour's Growth Trajectory
● Expanded Hotel Network: 140 new hotels added in Q3 and 732 under development, increasing capacity and driving revenue growth.
● Upscale Brand Introduction: SAVHE Hotel launch in core business districts, enhancing occupancy and average daily rate (ADR).
● Retail Segment Growth: 107.7% year-over-year GMV growth in 'deep sleep' products, boosting revenue and net margins.
● Membership Base Expansion: Over 83 million members, increasing revenue potential through customer loyalty and repeated business.
◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis
● Year-on-year
➖ FY23 sales reached $657.4 million, a remarkable 106% increase from $328 million in FY22.
➖ EBITDA surged to $142 million, up from $36 million in FY22.
➖ The EBITDA margin widened to 21.6% from 11.15% in the same period.
● Quarter-on-quarter
➖ Q3 sales reached $270 million, a 9% increase from $247 million in Q2 and a 52% jump from $177 million in Q3 2023.
➖ Q3 EBITDA climbed to $72.6 million, up from $56.2 million in Q2.
➖ Q3 diluted EPS rose to $0.39 (LTM) from $0.30 (LTM) in Q2 2024.
◉ Valuation
● P/E Ratio
ATAT has a P/E ratio of 24x, which is fairly valued when compared to the peer average of 23.7x.
● PEG Ratio
With a PEG ratio of just 0.15, ATAT appears to be undervalued based on its anticipated earnings growth.
◉ Profitability Analysis
With a 30.7% ROCE, ATAT demonstrates its expertise in generating substantial profits through efficient capital allocation.
◉ Cash Flow Analysis
ATAT achieves remarkable growth in operational cash flow, rising 582% to $280 million in FY23 from $41 million in FY22.
◉ Debt Analysis
ATAT's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.67, signaling that debt is not a significant concern for the company.
◉ Top Shareholders
➖ Mr. Haijun Wang, CEO of Atour Lifestyle Holdings, holds a significant 19.2% stake.
➖ Trip.com Group Limited holds approximately 13.6% stake.
◉ Technical Aspects
➖ The weekly chart indicates that after a long period of consolidation, the stock price has formed a Rounding Bottom Pattern and is likely to break through its strong resistance zone soon.
➖ A Pole & Flag pattern has formed on the daily chart, with the stock price targeting higher levels following a successful breakout.
◉ Conclusion
Following a thorough analysis, we believe Atour presents a lucrative investment opportunity. With its appealing valuation, impressive financial track record, and strategic growth initiatives, Atour is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing tourism sector. The company's commitment to delivering exceptional customer experiences further strengthens its potential for long-term growth and value creation for shareholders.
Tesla's Electrifying Rally: Stock Zooms to New Peaks● After facing a notable setback at the $415 mark, the stock took a dramatic plunge, dropping around 75% before finding its footing close to the $100 threshold.
● Following this, the stock entered an extended period of consolidation, eventually created a Rounding Bottom pattern.
● Recently, the stock has surpassed its previous resistance and reached all-time high.
● This breakthrough has sparked significant excitement, with optimism soaring about the stock's future growth potential.
Amazon Ignites: 150% Blaze Ahead?The stock has been in consolidation since August 2020, forming an Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern. Recently, it broke out above the neckline and is attempting to sustain above the 200 level.
Currently trading at 210, the stock has the potential to surge to 500 levels in the next few years. However, the breakout lacks strong confirmation, as a significant bullish candle with volume expansion is absent.
A crucial factor to watch is a monthly close above 200. This will help determine the stock's future trajectory and guide our trading and investment decisions.
Corcept Therapeutics: A Shining Star in US BiotechCorcept Therapeutics is making waves in the booming U.S. biotech scene, with its stock surging 46.2% over the past six months. The company, known for its Cushing's syndrome drug, Korlym, reported a staggering 39.1% year-over-year sales increase, reaching $310.6 million in H1 2024. With a market cap of $4.42 billion, Corcept is actively developing new treatments like Relacorilant, which shows promise in clinical trials.
Despite a high PE ratio of 35.3x compared to the industry average of 19x, its strong revenue growth and commitment to R&D position it as a solid investment opportunity in the fast-growing biotech market projected to reach $1,786 billion by 2033.
◉ The US Biotech Industry Outlook
The biotech boom in the U.S. is hotter than a California summer! Fueled by groundbreaking tech and government cheerleading, the industry is soaring higher than a SpaceX rocket. According to Vision Research Reports, the market is projected to soar by 12.4% CAGR from 2024 to 2033. This rapid expansion is driven by advancements in areas like genomics, gene editing, and personalized medicine, positioning the U.S. as a global leader in healthcare innovation.
➖ The US biotechnology market size was valued at $552.43 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to hit around $1,786 billion by 2033.
➖ Key players like Abbvie Inc., Genentech Inc., and Amgen Inc. are leading the market.
Acknowledging the remarkable expansion of the biotech sector, we are taking a closer look at a stock that is showing considerable strength in its technical chart, complemented by robust financial performance.
◉ Company Overview
Corcept Therapeutics NASDAQ:CORT is a biopharmaceutical company dedicated to developing innovative treatments for severe endocrine, oncologic, and metabolic disorders. Their lead product, Korlym, is approved for Cushing's syndrome, a rare endocrine condition. Corcept is also advancing several pipeline candidates, including relacorilant for Cushing's syndrome, treatments for various cancers, and potential therapies for neurological conditions like amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis. Founded in 1998, Corcept is based in Menlo Park, California.
◉ Significant Stock Performance of Corcept Therapeutics
Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated's stock price has risen 46.2% in the past six months, despite a 2% industry decline. This surge is attributed to strong demand for Korlym, the company's sole marketed drug used to treat Cushing's syndrome, a condition that is primarily cured with mifepristone.
◉ The Economic Impact of Korlym
The primary source of revenue for Corcept emanates from the sales of Korlym. The drug has showcased remarkable growth, evidenced by a 39.1% year-over-year sales increase, culminating in $310.6 million during the first half of 2024. This growth is attributed to robust demand and an unprecedented number of patients being prescribed the medication.
◉ Corcept's Stock Growth Factors
● Potential of Relacorilant: Positive GRACE study results suggest relacorilant could be a valuable treatment for Cushing's syndrome, potentially driving revenue growth.
● Pipeline Diversification: Corcept's ongoing exploration of relacorilant in GRADIENT study demonstrates commitment to expanding pipeline.
● Regulatory Progress: Successful completion of GRACE study positions Corcept for a new drug application in late 2024.
● Market Need: Successful relacorilant could fill significant unmet medical need for Cushing's syndrome.
Investent Advice by Naranj Capital
Buy Corcept Therapeutics NASDAQ:CORT
● Buy Range- 38 - 40
● Target- 55 - 58
● Potential Return- 35% - 40%
● Invest Duration- 12-14 Months
◉ Market Capitalization - $4.42 B
◉ Peer Companies
● Prestige Consumer Healthcare NYSE:PBH - $3.644 B
● Jazz Pharmaceuticals NASDAQ:JAZZ - $6.766 B
● Amphastar Pharmaceuticals NASDAQ:AMPH - $2.423 B
● Organon NYSE:OGN - $5.142 B
◉ Relative Strength
➖ The chart distinctly demonstrates that NASDAQ:CORT has significantly surpassed the US Smallcap 2000 index, attaining an impressive annual return of 30%, marking a remarkable accomplishment.
◉ Technical Aspects
● Monthly Chart
➖ The historical chart shows that the stock price is trending upward, marked by a sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
➖ Having recently moved out of the parallel channel, the price is set for additional gains.
● Daily Chart
➖ After an extended period of consolidation, the stock price has formed an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern.
➖ Post-breakout, the stock has stabilized above the breakout point and is now striving for new highs.
➖ A surge in trading volume suggests that buyers are currently showing significant interest.
◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis
● Year-on-year
➖ In the fiscal year 2023, revenue experienced a significant increase of 20.4%, amounting to $482.4 million, compared to $401.9 million in fiscal year 2022.
➖ However, EBITDA faced a downturn, decreasing to $108.3 million in FY23 from $113.9 million in FY22.
➖ The EBITDA margin also saw a reduction, falling to 22.46% from 28.34% in FY22.
➖ Moreover, diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose by 8% year-over-year, climbing to $0.94 in FY23, up from $0.87 in FY22.
**While the growth in EBITDA might raise some concerns, it's crucial to acknowledge that the company is heavily investing in its research and development sector, and this investment has seen substantial increases over the years.
● Quarter-on-quarter
➖ In the most recent June quarter, the company reached an impressive achievement, with quarterly sales hitting a record high of $163.8 million. This represents a 12% increase from the $146.8 million reported in the March quarter and a substantial 39% growth compared to $117.7 million in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
➖ Additionally, EBITDA rose from $29.6 million to $36.2 million during the latest quarter.
◉ Valuation
◉ PE Ratio
● PE vs Median PE
➖ Corcept Therapeutics sustained a median price-to-earnings ratio of 19.7x from December 2019 to 2023.
➖ Presently, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.3x, the stock seems to be relatively expensive.
● PE vs. Peers PE
➖ CORT's Price-To-Earnings Ratio stands at 35.3x, making it quite pricey when compared to the average of its peers, which is only 13.6x.
● PE vs. Industry PE
➖ CORT's valuation seems high, as it has a Price-To-Earnings Ratio of 35.3x, which is considerably above the US Pharmaceuticals industry average of 19x.
◉ PB Ratio
● PB vs. Peers PB
➖ The current price-to-book (P/B) ratio suggests that the stock is slightly undervalued, sitting at 7.4x compared to the peer average of 10.8x.
➖ However, it's important to note that a P/B ratio of 7.4x is typically seen as significantly overvalued.
● PB vs. Industry PB
➖ When we analyze the P/B ratio against the industry standard, CORT stands out as being notably overvalued, with its P/B ratio of 7.4x far exceeding the industry average of just 1.7x.
● PEG Ratio
➖ The stock currently seems to present a compelling investment opportunity, featuring a PEG ratio of 0.84.
◉ Cash Flow Analysis
➖ In FY23, operating cash flow increased to $127 million, compared to $120.3 million in FY22. However, it's essential to recognize that when examining the overall trend from FY19 to FY23, there has been a decline in cash flow from operations.
◉ Debt Analysis
➖ CORT operates without any debt, showcasing the robust financial health of the company.
◉ Top Shareholders
➖ Blackrock presently possesses a significant 15.8% ownership in this stock, while The Vanguard Group maintains approximately 9.1% stakes.
◉ Conclusion
Following a comprehensive examination of technical and fundamental metrics, our assessment indicates that Corcept Therapeutics possesses substantial growth potential within the US biotechnology sector. Notwithstanding elevated valuations, the company's increasing research and development expenditures demonstrate a strong commitment to its future prospects. Consequently, we consider Corcept Therapeutics a prudent investment choice at this juncture.
CreditAccess Grameen: Making a Difference in Microfinance◉ Abstarct
The Indian microfinance sector has grown significantly, reaching a total loan amount of about ₹4.33 lakh crore (around $52 billion) by March 2024, which is a 24.5% increase from the previous year. CreditAccess Grameen Limited plays a vital role by providing loans mainly to low-income women, helping them improve their lives.
The company saw an 11.8% growth in its total assets and a 20.8% rise in net interest income for the second quarter of FY25. Despite facing challenges like high-interest rates and regulatory pressures, it expects continued growth due to favorable rural conditions and technology improvements. Lower interest rates in the future could also boost profits and share prices for microfinance institutions like CreditAccess Grameen.
Read full analysis here..........
◉ Introduction
The Indian microfinance sector has evolved significantly over the past five decades, becoming a crucial component of the country's financial landscape. Here’s an overview of its current status, growth trajectory, challenges, and impact.
◉ Current Status
● Market Size: As of March 31, 2024, the microfinance industry boasts a gross loan portfolio of approximately ₹4.33 lakh crore (around $52 billion), marking a year-on-year growth of 24.5%. This growth underscores the sector's resilience and capacity to adapt to changing economic conditions.
● Customer Base: The sector serves around 78 million customers, with a notable increase in clientele from rural and semi-urban areas. This demographic shift reflects the sector's commitment to enhancing financial inclusion.
● Institutional Landscape: The microfinance sector comprises 168 Micro Finance Institutions (MFIs) operating across various states and union territories, with non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) leading the market with a share of 39.1%, compared to traditional banks at 33.5% as of FY23.
◉ Growth Drivers
● Regulatory Framework: The introduction of favourable regulations by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has facilitated growth by allowing MFIs greater flexibility in setting interest rates and expanding their lending capabilities. The establishment of MUDRA Bank has also played a pivotal role in financing small businesses.
● Technological Advancements: The integration of technology in operations has improved efficiency and customer outreach, enabling MFIs to serve a larger client base effectively.
● Government Initiatives: Programs aimed at promoting women's entrepreneurship and financial literacy have bolstered the sector's growth. Initiatives such as the Pradhan Mantri Mahila Shakti Kendra aim to empower women through easier access to credit.
◉ Impact of Monetary Policy Decisions on Microfinance
● Interest Rates: Changes in the repo rate influence borrowing costs for microfinance institutions (MFIs). Lower rates reduce loan costs for borrowers, promoting demand for microfinance products.
● Access to Credit: Relaxed monetary policy improves liquidity, encouraging banks to lend to MFIs, which enhances their ability to provide loans to underserved populations.
● Economic Activity: Lower interest rates stimulate economic growth, improving borrowers' repayment capacity and reducing default rates.
◉ Key Players in the Microfinance Sector
Several prominent companies operate within the Indian microfinance landscape:
1. Ujjivan Financial Services Limited: A major player that transitioned into banking with Ujjivan Small Finance Bank, focusing on serving unbanked populations.
2. Bandhan Bank: Initially a microfinance institution, it became a bank in 2015 and provides a variety of financial products aimed at rural and semi-urban areas.
3. Bharat Financial Inclusion Limited (BFIL): Formerly known as SKS Microfinance, BFIL offers microcredit services across India and emphasizes empowering women entrepreneurs.
4. CreditAccess Grameen Limited: This institution focuses on providing loans to low-income households and has established a strong presence in rural regions.
5. Spandana Sphoorty Financial Ltd.: An NBFC-MFI that provides various financial services to economically disadvantaged individuals.
6. Arohan Financial Services Limited: Offers microfinance solutions and is part of the Aavishkaar-Intellecap Group.
Other notable players include Utkarsh Small Finance Bank , Share Microfin Limited , Muthoot Microfin Limited , and Satin Creditcare Network Limited , all contributing to the sector's growth through innovative financial products tailored for low-income clients
◉ Challenges Facing the Sector
Despite its growth trajectory, the Indian microfinance sector faces several challenges:
● Over-Indebtedness: Many borrowers struggle with high-interest rates and multiple loans from different MFIs, leading to financial stress.
● Regulatory Compliance: The sector is subject to strict regulations imposed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which can affect operational flexibility.
● Financial Literacy: Low levels of financial literacy among borrowers can hinder effective utilization of microfinance services
In this in-depth analysis, we'll explore CreditAccess Grameen's market positioning and competitive dynamics, shedding light on its remarkable impact in India's microfinance landscape
◉ Company Overview
CreditAccess Grameen Limited NSE:CREDITACC , a leading non-banking financial company, provides microfinance services to women from low-income households in India. The company offers microcredit loans for income generation, home improvement, and emergency needs, as well as insurance services, retail finance loans, and digital lending products. Incorporated in 1991 and headquartered in Bengaluru, India, CreditAccess Grameen Limited operates as a subsidiary of CreditAccess India BV. Formerly known as Grameen Koota Financial Services Private Limited, the company was renamed in January 2018.
◉ Market Capitalization - ₹ 15,608 Cr.
◉ Investment Advice
💡 Buy CreditAccess Grameen NSE:CREDITACC
● Buy Range - 950 - 970
● Sell Target - 1280 - 1300
● Potential Return - 30% - 35%
● Approx Holding Period - 12-14 months
◉ Q2 FY25 Earnings Performance Summary
● Total AUM Growth: Increased by 11.8% year-over-year, reaching INR 25,133 Crore.
● Gross Loan Portfolio (GL): Rose by 9.3% year-over-year to INR 24,188 Crore.
● Retail Finance (RF) Portfolio: Demonstrated strong growth with an AUM of INR 945 Crore.
● Customer Base: Grew by 7.2% year-over-year to 49.33 Lakh, with the addition of 1.46 Lakh new customers in Q2 FY25.
● Branch Network: Expanded to 2,031 branches across 398 districts, adding 55 new branches during the quarter.
◉ Financial Highlights
● Net Interest Income (NII): Increased by 20.8% year-over-year to INR 933 Crore.
● Cost of Borrowings: Average cost remained stable at 9.8%, with a marginal cost of 9.4%.
● Portfolio Yield: Held steady at 21.1%, with an interest spread of 11.4%, among the lowest in the microfinance sector.
● Net Interest Margin (NIM): Improved to 13.5%, up from 13.0% in Q1 FY25.
● Cost-to-Income Ratio: Reported at 30.7%; Pre-Provisioning Operating Profit (PPOP) grew by 19.5% year-over-year to INR 672 Crore.
● Profit After Tax (PAT): Recorded at INR 186 Crore for Q2 FY25, with a Return on Assets (ROA) of 2.7% and a Return on Equity (ROE) of 10.7%.
◉ Asset Quality Update
A temporary rise in delinquency attributed to:
● Interventions by third parties impacting repayment capabilities.
● Liquidity and cash flow challenges experienced by customers.
● Income fluctuations for agricultural laborers due to adverse weather conditions.
◉ NPA Status Overview
● As of September 2024, preliminary data indicates a slight uptick in NPAs with a gross NPA ratio of 2.44% and a net NPA ratio of 0.76%. This change may reflect broader economic conditions or specific challenges faced by borrowers in the microfinance segment.
◉ FY25 Performance Guidance
● Loan portfolio growth expected at 8-12%.
● NIM forecasted at 12.8-13.0%.
● Credit cost guidance at 4.5-5.0%.
● ROA projected at 3.0-3.5%, ROE at 12.0-14.0%.
◉ Management Confidence
Management is confident that the ongoing delinquency cycle will be short-term, stabilizing by Q3 FY25. Looking ahead, the company expects to gain momentum in Q4 FY25, fueled by favourable rural economic conditions.
◉ Technical Aspects
● After hitting an all-time peak of 1,780, the stock plummeted 50%.
● Currently, it's staging a recovery from the long-term trendline support, with substantial upside potential.
◉ Conclusion
CreditAccess Grameen is well-positioned for substantial growth, driven by increasing demand for financial services among low-income groups, ongoing government support, and advancements in digital technology. The company's strong financial foundation will enable it to capitalize on these trends.
Furthermore, the current high interest rates are expected to decrease soon, leading to lower borrowing costs for microfinance institutions (MFIs) like CreditAccess Grameen. This reduction in borrowing costs will likely enhance profitability, which in turn may positively impact the company's share price, driving it to higher levels.