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HOW TO CHOOSE STOCKS STEP-BY-STEP APPROACHHOW TO CHOOSE STOCKS STEP-BY-STEP APPROACH 1. Systematic approach: It's crucial to have a good strategy to identify stocks that align with your investment goals and risk tolerance. Let's learn the full process. 2. Identify Companies with Strong Fundamentals: Evaluate the following metrics while selecting stocks. • Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio • Return on Equity (ROE) • Debt-to-Equity Ratio • Dividend Yield • Free Cash Flow (FCF) Here's an evaluation of each of the mentioned metrics a. Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: The Price-to-Earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is one of the most commonly used valuation metrics. It compares a company's stock price to its earnings per share (EPS). The formula is: P/E Ratio = Stock Price / Earnings Per Share (EPS) A high P/E ratio may indicate that investors have high expectations for the company's future growth potential, while a low P/E ratio may suggest that the stock is undervalued. However, a high P/E ratio could also mean the stock is overvalued or that the company is experiencing temporary issues. b. Return on Equity (ROE): Return on Equity measures a company's profitability relative to shareholders' equity. It is calculated as: ROE = (Net Income / Shareholders' Equity) * 100 ROE represents how efficiently a company is using shareholders' capital to generate profits. A higher ROE generally indicates better financial performance and management effectiveness. However, it's essential to compare ROE within the same industry, as different industries may have varying capital structures and profitability expectations. c. Debt-to-Equity Ratio: The Debt-to-Equity ratio (D/E ratio) assesses a company's financial leverage by comparing its total liabilities to shareholders' equity. The formula is: D/E Ratio = Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity A high D/E ratio may suggest that the company relies heavily on debt to finance its operations, which can increase financial risk. On the other hand, a low D/E ratio may indicate a more conservative capital structure. A balance between debt and equity is generally preferred, depending on the industry and the company's overall financial health. d. Dividend Yield: The Dividend Yield is a financial ratio that shows the annual dividend income as a percentage of the current stock price. The formula is: Dividend Yield = (Annual Dividend Per Share / Stock Price) * 100 Dividend-paying stocks with a higher yield can be attractive to income-focused investors. However, it's essential to consider the sustainability of the dividend and the company's ability to maintain or increase it over time. e. Free Cash Flow (FCF): Free Cash Flow represents the cash a company generates from its operating activities after accounting for capital expenditures. It provides insight into a company's financial flexibility and ability to invest in growth opportunities or return cash to shareholders. The formula is: FCF = Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures A positive and growing FCF is generally a positive sign, as it suggests the company can fund its operations and invest in future growth without relying on excessive debt or equity issuance. Strong fundamentals indicate a company's ability to generate consistent earnings and withstand market fluctuations. 3. Analyze Competitive Position: Assess a company to see if they have a competitive edge in the market. Factors like brand strength, patents, unique technology, or dominant market share can contribute to a company's competitive edge. 4. Study Historical Performance and Future Growth Potential: Look for consistent revenue and earnings growth over time. Additionally, assess the company's growth for future by considering factors like new product launches, expansion plans, and market opportunities. 5. Monitor and Review: After selecting stocks, it's crucial to monitor and review your investments regularly. Evaluate your portfolio's performance and make adjustments as necessary to ensure it remains aligned with your investment goals. Here are some additional tips for choosing stocks: 6. Diversification: Diversification is a key principle in stock investing. It involves spreading your investment across different companies, industries, or asset classes. By diversifying, you reduce the risk associated with any single stock or sector performing poorly, as losses in some areas may be offset by gains in others. Diversification can be achieved through mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), or by individually selecting stocks from various sectors. 7. Risk Assessment: Understanding and assessing the risks associated with a particular stock or investment is essential. Each stock carries its own set of risks, including market risk, sector-specific risks, company-specific risks, and broader economic risks. Consider your risk tolerance and the amount of risk you are willing to take on before investing in any stock. 8. Technical Analysis vs. Fundamental Analysis: Investors use two main approaches to analyze stocks: technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Technical analysis involves studying historical price and volume patterns to make predictions about future price movements. On the other hand, fundamental analysis, which was partially covered in step 2, involves evaluating a company's financial health, performance, and potential for growth. Understanding the differences between these approaches can help you decide which one aligns better with your investment strategy. 9. Long-term vs. Short-term Investing: Decide whether you want to be a long-term investor or a short-term trader. Long-term investing involves holding onto stocks for extended periods, often years, to benefit from potential long-term growth. Short-term trading involves buying and selling stocks over shorter periods, typically to take advantage of short-term price movements. Your choice will depend on your investment goals and risk tolerance. 10. Consider Dividends: Dividends are payments made by some companies to their shareholders from their profits. If you are seeking a regular income stream or want to reinvest in more stocks, consider choosing companies that offer dividends. Dividend-paying stocks can be an essential component of an income-focused investment strategy. 11. Stay Informed: Stay updated on market trends, economic indicators, and company news. Being informed about the latest developments can help you make more informed investment decisions. Read financial news, follow reputable analysts, and keep track of relevant events that could impact the stock market. 12. Avoid Emotional Investing: Avoid making investment decisions based on emotions, such as fear or excitement. Emotional investing can lead to impulsive decisions that may not align with your overall strategy. Instead, stick to your systematic approach and investment plan, considering the long-term objectives you set. 13. Understand Tax Implications: Consider the tax implications of your investments. Different countries have different tax rules for stocks, and holding periods can also affect taxation. Understanding the tax implications can help you optimize your investment returns and minimize tax liabilities. 14. Seek Professional Advice: If you are new to investing or find it challenging to select stocks, consider seeking advice from a financial advisor or investment professional. They can provide personalized guidance based on your financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment goals. 15. Stay Patient and Disciplined: Stock market investing requires patience and discipline. The market may experience ups and downs, but it's essential to stay focused on your long-term goals and avoid making impulsive decisions based on short-term market fluctuations. Advice before making any investment decisions: Do your research. Before you invest in any stock, make sure you do your research and understand the company. This includes reading the company's financial statements, following the news about the company, and talking to other investors. Diversify your portfolio. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. By diversifying your portfolio, you can reduce your risk. Don't panic sell. When the market takes a downturn, it is important to stay calm and not panic sell. Remember, the market will eventually recover.
NSE:TCSEducation
by khushaljain023
JS-Masterclass #3: FundamentalsIn the recent tutorial 'Trading with the Trend - Stage Analysis', we have explained the importance of identifying stocks in a confirmed stage 2 uptrend using the 'Trend-Template'. What are the Fundamentals doing in a confirmed stage 2 Uptrend? The best stocks and buying opportunities available in the market meet the technical requirements according to Minervini's Trend-Template and have very healthy Fundamentals. Best Candidates - Growth - Accelerating EPS and Revenues - Explosive Market Position - Sustainable Trends - Scalable Business Model Worst Candidates - Capital Intensive - Limited Pricing Power - Heavily Regulated - Margin Pressure - Eroding Industry Position Watch out for these 3 key fundamentals – Earnings, Sales and Margins 1) Earnings in most recent 2-3 quarters +20% or more – the bigger the better; look for earnings acceleration – quarter to quarter sequential. Look at a 2 quarter average (up 20%) 2) Sales acceleration: sales increasing in most recent 2-3 quarters 3) Check profit margins – are they expanding or contracting? 4) Combination of sales and margins = earnings: gauge current growth versus 3-5 year growth rate (look for acceleration), Look for a breakout year How Do You Know if an Earnings Report is Really Great? 1. Results are better than the consensus of analysts’ estimates or, even better, earnings come in above the highest analyst estimate. Why? This will get the stock on the radar screens of big institutions. 2. The company raises its guidance for the upcoming quarter and the fiscal year significantly. 3. The stock price reacts positively to the earnings report and/or company issued guidance and resists meaningful profit taking over a number of days or weeks. 4. Analysts promptly raise estimates. (More than a 5% change from 30-days earlier is meaningful). 5. Revenue is reported above the consensus estimate (preferably above the highest estimate) and is also revised upward. 6. Earnings are “quality” – profit improvement comes from increased sales as opposed to a one-time gain or non-operating/non-recurring income. Keep in mind, cost cutting or “productivity enhancements” have a limited life span. 7. You can check Return on Equity to get an idea how good management is doing. You should compare this number to other companies in the same industry. 15-17% is a good cutoff for most stocks. Red Flags • Material earnings deceleration is a warning • Eroding margins is a warning • Positive earnings with negative sales – limited life span • A company showing strong earnings but not paying much in taxes is a red flag Even if you have found a stock with great Fundamentals: - Never trust the story - Never trust the numbers - Unless confirmed by price action
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Education
by JS_TechTrading
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