Airbnb | ABNB Airbnb is the leader in Alternative Accommodations and experiences. I believe their community of individual hosts and strong brand differentiates them from travel peers. The emerging trend of long-term stays would boost Airbnb’s profit margins and expand the entire travel accommodation market size
Airbnb estimates its current total addressable market to be $3.4 trillion, including $1.8 trillion in short term stays, $ 210 billion in long term stays, and $ 1.4 trillion in experiences. Coupled with a notably underpenetrated market size, the global travel market is growing at an above GDP rate. Airbnb’s current market penetration represents less than 2% of the share. As such, there is a huge runway for Airbnb’s growth over the next decade.
In terms of competition, most Online Travel Agencies (OTA) provide traditional hotel accommodation (Marriott, Hilton, Accor, Wyndham, and InterContinental, for example). These OTAs are not the real competitors for Airbnb. Instead, Booking.com (BKNG) is expanding its traditional hotel business into the alternative accommodation industry. Expedia (EXPE) entered the alternative accommodation market via the acquisition of VRBO in December 2015. However, Airbnb has the first-mover advantage with a very strong brand. I believe Airbnb’s technology and supplies are superior to their peers, and it is hard for Expedia and Booking.com to compete against Airbnb in the alternative accommodations space.
One of the main expenses for Online Travel Agencies is sales and marketing. They have to spend billions of dollars on Google, Facebook, and other social media platforms to attract traffic.
The table below shows the sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of sales. Both Booking.com and Expedia spend almost half of their sales on sales and marketing. According to Airbnb’s disclosure, 80% of their website traffic comes from direct and organic search. In contrast, Booking.com and Expedia only have 60% direct traffic. In other words, Airbnb has the highest brand awareness among these travelers. With a high ratio of direct traffic and organic search, Airbnb spends much less than its peers.
In Q1 FY23’s earning call, Airbnb indicated their sales and marketing expense as percentage of sales would remain the same in FY23.
In late 2019, Airbnb's costs were rising, and growth was slowing. They spent a huge amount of money on performance marketing, which was basically selling their products as a commodity. Their product was looking less different from their competitors. When the COVID occurred, they lost 80% of sales in eight weeks, and they shut down all marketing spending. Interestingly, when the travel market rebounded, Airbnb's business came back to almost the same level as before, with much less marketing expenses. Currently, they spend much less on performance marketing, and most of their expenses are focused on their products/services. They have had 600,000 articles about Airbnb. These efforts have put Airbnb in a much better shape today.
90% of Airbnb's hosts are individuals. Airbnb can capitalize on the personal experience provided by these unique individual hosts, as opposed to a standard hotel service. Customers can find unique properties, differentiated amenities, as well as local insights from these individual hosts.
Airbnb is putting in a lot of effort into the experience market. In Q4 FY22's earnings call, Airbnb expressed that they were beginning to ramp up their Airbnb Experience business and expect to launch more products/services over the coming years. In my opinion, Airbnb Experience may not bring notable direct sales to Airbnb, but it would enhance the stickiness and loyalty of Airbnb's customers. Airbnb Experience would make the Airbnb platform unique and boost their sales indirectly.
Furthermore, Airbnb Experience could become more relevant with AI technology. In Q1 FY23's earnings call, Airbnb disclosed that they are building AI into their products. Airbnb is working with OpenAI ChatGPT, and Airbnb will embed ChatGPT into their app. The AI powered product will be launched next year.
Leveraging AI technology, Airbnb can make their Airbnb Experience and accommodation recommendations more relevant to any consumer. To put it another way, Airbnb would know your preferences for travel destinations and accommodations before you start searching for anything.
Long-term Stay: As disclosed, 20% of Airbnb's gross bookings are long-term stays currently. Long-term stays are the fastest-growing segment in terms of trip length. The pandemic also accelerated some inevitable growth for long-term stays.
Long-term stays mean higher margins for both hosts and Airbnb. In Q1 FY23's earnings call, Airbnb indicated that long-term stays would be one of the biggest growth areas over the next five years. Airbnb made over a dozen upgrades to long-term stays based on affordability, and they also have new discounting tools for hosts on weekly and monthly stays. Airbnb expects more hosts to exclusively list long-term stays with Airbnb.
In addition, 62% of Airbnb's guests are under 34 years old, and Airbnb is focusing on the next generation of travelers. These young customers are more likely to use Airbnb as the platform for long-term stays. The key thing to remember is that more long-term stays mean higher margins for Airbnb.
Airbnb indicated that, in the current macroeconomic environment, consumers are looking for affordable ways to travel on Airbnb. Airbnb is adding more affordable accommodations to their platform. The average price of Airbnb rooms is only $67 per night.
Before the pandemic, 80% of Airbnb's sales were coming from either cross-border or urban accommodations. The cross-border business would contribute more sales to Airbnb than other types of travel. The cross-border traveling could be very weak if high inflation persists. Despite this, the global travel market had been growing fast in the past, and I expect the growth will continue in the future.
We are using a two-stage DCF model to estimate Airbnb’s fair value. In the model, we assume 20% of normalized sales growth rate, which we believe is quite conservative.
We assume they can expand their operating margin by 30bps annually and will reach 25.5% in FY32.Their free cash flow conversion was quite healthy in the past, and we assume they will deliver 35.8% in FY32.
In addition, we use 10% of WACC, and 15% of nonGAAP tax rate in the model.
The present value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) over the next 10 years is estimated to be $32 billion, and the present value of terminal value is $88 billion. As such, the total enterprise value is estimated to be $120 billion. Adjusting gross debt and cash balance, the fair value of the stock price is $ 200, according to our estimate.
All things considered, the huge underpenetrated market, strong brand awareness, and growing trend of long-term stays, in my opinion, will provide Airbnb with a huge runway for growth over the next decade. Their competitors are way behind them, and Airbnb would be the best player for the alternative accommodation service provider. In my view, the current stock price is significantly undervalued, and we encourage investors to buy during the weakness.
at the end I always bet on Brian Chesky
Stocksignals
Walt Disney Co | DISThe Walt Disney Company is reportedly exploring options to sell or find a joint venture partner for its India digital and TV business, reflecting the company's ongoing strategic evaluation of its operations in the region. The talks are still in the early stages, with no specific buyer or partner identified yet. The outcome and direction of the process remain uncertain. Internally, discussions have commenced within Disney's headquarters in the United States as executives deliberate on the most viable course of action. These deliberations signify the company's willingness to adapt and optimize its business operations to align with changing market dynamics. The Wall Street Journal reported on July 11 that Disney had engaged with at least one bank to explore potential avenues for assisting the growth of its India business while sharing the associated costs. This approach suggests a proactive stance by the company to explore partnerships or arrangements that can drive growth while minimizing financial burdens. While it is too early to ascertain the exact direction this exploration will take, the developments in Disney's India business warrant attention, as they may shape the future landscape of the company's presence in this all-important region.
The ongoing shift from traditional TV to streaming has placed Disney and its competitors in a costly and transformative phase. As part of this transition, Disney is actively cutting costs amid macroeconomic challenges that have impacted its advertising revenue and subscriber growth. CEO Bob Iger has been at the forefront of these changes, and his contract was recently extended through 2026 to allow him sufficient time to make transformative changes while strengthening the bench with future leaders of the company.
One of the key considerations for Disney is evaluating its portfolio of TV networks, including ABC and ESPN. Bob Iger has expressed a willingness to be expansive in assessing the traditional TV business, leaving open the possibility of selling certain networks while retaining others acknowledging that networks like ABC may not be core to Disney's new business model. ESPN, as a cable TV channel, is being approached differently. Disney is open to exploring strategic partnerships, such as joint ventures or offloading ownership stakes, to navigate the challenges faced by the sports network. CEO Iger, who had previously expressed pessimism about the future of traditional TV, has found the situation to be worse than anticipated since his return to Disney.
Although the linear networks segment, which accounts for Disney's TV properties such as ABC, National Geographic, FX, and FreeForm, has struggled to grow in the recent past, this segment is still an important part of the company's business, which is evident from the positive operating income reported by this segment in fiscal 2022. As below data reveals, the DTC business and content licensing made operating losses in FY 2022 which were offset by the operating income reported by linear networks. For this reason, investors will have to closely monitor a potential sale of TV assets to evaluate the impact of such a decision on Disney's profitability.
The broadcasting landscape is experiencing a significant shift, with uncertainties surrounding its future and the changing nature of consumer preferences. While linear television channels are not expected to disappear immediately, their consumption continues to decline as viewers increasingly favor OTT platforms. This transition represents a fundamental trend shaping the industry. In terms of business models, subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) services will continue to grow with targeted advertising.
As the ascent of streaming video continues, cable, satellite, and internet TV providers in the United States faced their most significant subscriber losses to date in the first quarter of 2023. Analyst estimates indicate a collective shedding of 2.3 million customers during this period. Consequently, the total penetration of pay-TV services in occupied U.S. households, including internet-based services like YouTube TV and Hulu, dropped to its lowest point since 1992, standing at 58.5%, according to Moffett's calculations.
In Q1, pay-TV services in the U.S. witnessed a nearly 7% decline in customers compared to the previous year, with cable TV operators experiencing a 9.9% decline, while satellite providers DirecTV and Dish Network registered subscriber losses of 13.4%. Virtual MVPDs, which are multichannel video programming distributors, also suffered significant losses, shedding 264,000 customers during the quarter. Comcast, the largest pay-TV provider in the country, lost 614,000 video customers in Q1, and Google's YouTube TV was the only tracked provider to experience subscriber growth, adding an estimated 300,000 subscribers during the period. These trends illustrate the challenges faced by the pay-TV industry, with factors like increasing sports-broadcast fees driving retail prices higher, leading to cord-cutting and subsequent price adjustments by distributors. By 2026, e-Marketer predicts that the number of non-pay TV households will surpass pay TV households by over 25 million.
In efforts to achieve profitability in the streaming business, Disney has implemented significant cost-cutting measures, including saving $5.5 billion through cost reductions and layoffs, and a focus on making Disney+ and Hulu more profitable. Disney aims to enhance Hulu integration, seeing it as a vital component of the company's transition from TV to a streaming-only model. Discussions are also underway for Disney to acquire Comcast Corporation's (CMCSA) stake in Hulu, as Disney currently holds 66% ownership. The company believes that the integration of Hulu and Disney+ will bolster the streaming business and contribute to its profitability. While the negotiations with Comcast over Hulu's valuation are ongoing, the combined offering of Disney+ and Hulu is expected to be available to consumers by the end of the calendar year. Although Disney's plans for ESPN+ and the fate of its other cable channels, such as the Disney Channel, remain uncertain, Bob Iger expects ESPN to eventually move to a streaming-only model, acknowledging the disruptive nature of the traditional TV business model.
The discussions surrounding Walt Disney's TV and streaming business in India come at a critical juncture for the company, as it grapples with intensified competition and significant challenges in the market. The emergence of Reliance Industries' JioCinema streaming platform has posed a considerable threat to Disney's dominance, especially after Reliance secured digital rights for the highly popular Indian Premier League cricket tournament. This strategic move by Reliance, which offered free access to the tournament earlier this year, caused a substantial decline in Disney+ Hotstar's subscribers, a popular streaming service under Disney's India business.
Additionally, Viacom18, which is backed by Reliance and Paramount Global (PARA), made a significant impact on Disney's market position in India. Through its partnership with Warner Bros, Viacom18 secured content rights to popular shows on HBO including Succession, previously aired on Disney's platform. This collaboration forms a formidable alliance challenging Disney's dominance in the Indian market. Reliance's freemium model poses the most significant threat to Disney's current position. By offering content for free on its streaming platform, JioCinema attracted a substantial number of subscribers through the broadcast of IPL. With its ample cash reserves, Reliance has the advantage of focusing on subscriber growth without immediately focusing on monetization strategies. The loss of streaming rights for the IPL, combined with a subsequent decline in paid subscribers, had a profound impact on Disney's reputation in India in the first quarter of this year, which could very well be the most challenging Q1 Disney has had in India for a long time.
A report on video consumption trends in India by Media Partners Asia sheds light on the dynamic landscape of the online video sector in India. For the 15 months that ended in March 2023, total consumption across the online video sector reached a staggering 6.1 trillion minutes. During this period, Disney+ Hotstar emerged as the dominant player in premium VOD, capturing 38% of viewing time. The report attributes Hotstar's success to its strong sports offerings and the depth of its Hindi and regional entertainment content.
During the survey period, Zee and Sony together held a 13% share of the Indian premium video sector viewing time. While the two companies are expected to merge pending regulatory approval, they are projected to operate independently for another year, benefiting from strong engagement across sports as well as regional, local, and international content. Prime Video and Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) collectively accounted for a 10% share of viewership in the premium VOD category. Prime Video also garnered a significant portion of viewership from regional Indian titles. The report emphasizes that local content dominates premium VOD viewership, particularly outside the sports category, while international content leads paid tiers. Catch-up TV is prevalent in the free tier across freemium streaming platforms.
Although Disney was the clear winner in 2022, this report highlights a significant shake-up in the market brought about by the transformation of JioCinema. JioCinema, which previously held a mere 2% share of the premium video market, experienced a major upswing in growth since April. This surge can be attributed to JioCinema's decision to offer free live streaming of the popular IPL cricket tournament, a property that was previously exclusive to Disney-owned media in India. Despite technical glitches impacting user experience, JioCinema witnessed a more than 20-fold increase in consumption in April 2023, enabling it to dominate the premium VOD category. The report raises questions about JioCinema's ability to sustain this growth and scale in the absence of IPL action after June 2023. That being said, this could be an early indication of growth challenges Disney-owned brands may face in India.
Star India, now known as Disney Star following the rebranding last year, is expected to experience a revenue drop of around 20% to less than $2 billion for the fiscal year ending September 2023. Additionally, EBITDA is projected to decline by approximately 50% compared to the previous year. Furthermore, Hotstar is estimated to lose 8 to 10 million subscribers in its fiscal third quarter as well.
Given the current scenario, finding an outright buyer for Disney's India business is expected to be challenging. When Disney acquired the entertainment assets of 21st Century Fox in 2019, the enterprise value of the Indian business was estimated at around $15-16 billion. This high valuation, coupled with the intense competition and declining subscriber base, presents a complex landscape for potential buyers or partners.
I believe Disney stock is attractively valued today given that the company's streaming business has a long runway for growth internationally while its brand assets will continue to drive revenue higher. As an investor, I am both concerned and curious about what the future holds for Disney's linear networks segment. Going by the recent remarks of CEO Iger, major changes are on their way. A strategic decision to divest non-core assets, in my opinion, will trigger a positive response from the market. That being said, a major divestment of TV assets could materially impact the company's profitability in the next 3-5 years until its streaming business scales enough to replace lost revenue from the linear networks segment. Investors will have to closely monitor new developments to identify a potential inflection point in Disney's story.
MARA Holdings Surges: All Profit Targets Hit in 15min Long TradeTechnical Analysis: Mara Holdings – 15-Minute Timeframe (Long Trade)
Mara Holdings displayed a strong bullish move, hitting all profit targets following a long entry at 15.77. The trade has now concluded successfully, with all targets achieved.
Key Levels
Entry: 15.77 – Long position initiated after identifying bullish momentum.
Stop-Loss (SL): 15.41 – Positioned to manage risk in case of a reversal.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 16.20 – Initial target achieved early in the trade, confirming the upward trend.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 16.91 – Continued buying pressure led to this level being reached.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 17.62 – Bullish momentum carried the price to this level.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 18.05 – Final target successfully hit, completing the trade.
Trend Analysis
The price remained above the Risological Dotted trendline, confirming a sustained uptrend throughout the trade. Mara Holdings showed strong buying interest, driving the price through all profit targets.
The long trade on Mara Holdings was highly successful, hitting all targets, with the final target of 18.05 marking a profitable conclusion. This showcases the precision of identifying and capitalizing on upward trends.
Alibaba (BABA) – Potential Rebound If Alibaba (BABA) returns to the green zone, there’s potential for a rebound, creating a good opportunity for a long entry. This zone is important as it coincides with the monthly open, and buyers are likely to step in at this level.
Strategy: I’ll be watching for a pullback to the green zone and will consider going long with confirmation of buying activity.
ABBVIE broke below the 1D MA50. Confirmed sell opportunity.AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the November 09 2023 Low. Having made a Higher High on September 04 and been rejected at the top of the Channel Up, the price broke and closed aggressively below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) three days ago. That is a confirmed technical sell signal.
The 1D RSI has been on Lower Highs before the actual High, very similar to the previous top on March 12 2024. That sequence, after breaking below its 1D MA50, extended aggressively towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and bottomed on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, we can take a low risk sell now and target a potential contact with the 1D MA200 at $180.00. As far as buying the dip for the long-term is concerned, the most consistent buy signal has been the 1D RSI Bullish Divergence when it forms the first Higher Lows sequence after breaking below the 30.00 oversold barrier. So far that has worked 3 times almost perfectly, with the only exception the May 29 2024 bottom, which still was formed not that far away from the April 26 buy signal.
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TRENT Tumbles! Short Trade Hits First 2 Targets – More Downside?TRENT has exhibited strong bearish momentum since the short entry at 8161.30 on 15th October at 9:45 AM, successfully reaching Take Profit 1 (TP1) and Take Profit 2 (TP2).
Key Levels
Entry: 8161.30 – The short position was initiated as the price broke below this level, indicating a bearish trend.
Stop-Loss (SL): 8253.15 – Placed above recent resistance to protect against a potential price reversal.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 8047.75 – The first target was reached, confirming the initial strength of the downtrend.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 7864.00 – Continued selling pressure led to this target being achieved.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 7680.30 – The next target in sight if the bearish trend persists.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 7566.75 – The ultimate target, suggesting a significant downward move.
Trend Analysis
The price is trading below the Risological Dotted trendline, indicating a strong bearish trend. The sustained downward movement suggests further downside potential, with TP3 likely to be reached if the current momentum holds.
The short trade on TRENT is performing well, with TP1 and TP2 already achieved. With bearish momentum intact, the next targets at 7680.30 and 7566.75 could be within reach.
SEDG Solaredge - More losses ahead?Solaredge Chart Analysis
The stock is in a clear downtrend since February
with a Significant resistance level at around $32.11
The Minor support seems at around $17.12
Increased volume during price drops indicates strong selling pressure and
Prices below the EMA are clues for bearish momentum
Key Points for a Trade
Entry: Consider waiting for a break below support or a pullback at resistance.
Stop-Loss: Set slightly above recent swing high ($24) to manage risk.
In case of pullback look for Stops at around $32.90
Trend continuation: Be cautious at EMA crossover or strong volume spikes, which could indicate a trend reversal.
Additional Clues:
Todays Put Option Volume increased 1,4 times of what was expected indicating bearish flow
INTEL Breakdown! Bearish Move Smashes First TargetIntel has shown a significant bearish movement on the Risological swing trader after the short entry at 23.36, with the price quickly moving towards the first profit target.
Key Levels
Entry: 23.36 – The short trade was initiated as the price broke below this level, confirming bearish sentiment.
Stop-Loss (SL): 23.59 – Positioned slightly above recent resistance to manage risk in case of a price reversal.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 23.07 – The first target, which has been hit, indicating the trade is progressing in the right direction.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 22.60 – The second profit-taking level is also hit as the bearish momentum builds.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 22.14 – If selling pressure continues, this is the next target to watch for.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 21.85 – The ultimate profit target, signaling a significant downward move.
Trend Analysis
The price is moving downward sharply, breaking below the support of the Risological Dotted trendline, confirming a strong bearish trend. The sharp drop shows significant selling pressure, which suggests further downside potential.
With TP1 reached, the next targets at 22.60 and 22.14 are in focus as the bearish momentum continues. If the trend holds, there’s a strong possibility of achieving TP4 at 21.85.
Intel’s sharp breakdown following the short entry at 23.36 has resulted in hitting the first profit target at 23.07. With strong bearish momentum and the price moving below the Risological Dotted trendline, further downside targets are likely to be achieved if this trend continues.
ASML Perhaps the most structured buy in the market!ASML Holding (ASML) has been trading within a 2-year Channel Up pattern since the October 13 2022 Low. The recent September 10 2024 Low has been at the bottom of the pattern, technically forming its new Higher Low.
Yesterday it broke and closed above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 3 months, which has been a solid bullish break-out signal on both previous Bullish Legs. Those then went on huge rallies that rose by +87.94% and +91.92% respectively.
As a result, with the 1W MACD about to form the final buy confirmation with a Bullish Cross, we set a 1380 long-term Target on a minimum +87.94% rise from the bottom, that will form an ideal Higher High on the Channel Up.
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High Dividend yield HPCL wants to fly higher. Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd. engages in the business of refining crude oil and sales of petroleum products. It operates through the Downstream and Others segment. The Downstream segment deals with the refining and marketing of petroleum products; The Other segment engages in exploration and production of hydrocarbons, manufacturing sugar ethanol. Hindustan Petroleum Corp. CMP is 405.85.
The positive aspects of the company are cheap Valuation (P.E. = 8.7), Company with Zero Promoter Pledge, Annual Profit Growth higher than Sector Profit Growth, MFs increased their shareholding last quarter and Stocks Outperforming their Industry Price Change in the Quarter. Dividend yield of the company at CMP is 5.2%. The Negative aspects of the company are Increasing Trend in Non-Core Income.
Entry can be taken after closing above 409 Targets in the stock will be 416 and 429. The long-term target in the stock will be 447 and 457. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 380 or 363 depending on your risk taking ability.
Disclaimer:The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
BPCL with high dividend yield wants to go higher. Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. is a holding company, which engages in the business of refining of crude oil and marketing of petroleum products. It operates through the Downstream Petroleum and Exploration and Production (E&P) segment. The Downstream Petroleum segment includes the refining and marketing of petroleum products. The E&P segment focuses on hydrocarbons.
Bharat Petroleum Corp. CMP is 340.75. The positive aspects of the company are cheap Valuation (P.E. = 7.8), Company reducing Debt, Company with Zero Promoter Pledge, Dividend yield of the company at CMP is 6.2%. and Strong Annual EPS Growth. The Negative aspects of the company are Declining Net Cash Flow : Companies not able to generate net cash, Increasing Trend in Non-Core Income and Companies with growing costs YoY for long term projects.
Entry can be taken after closing above 347 Targets in the stock will be 355 and 363. The long-term target in the stock will be 375. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 320 or 293 depending on your risk taking ability.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
COINBASE Enormous upside from this point. $360 minimum Target.Coinbase (COIN) has staged a strong bullish turnaround since our last analysis (September 09, see chart below) and it appears that we caught the perfect bottom buy:
The stock has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the first week of January 2023 (22 months). Within this time span, it has seen 4 corrections with the latter being the longest as we haven't seen a new High since the week of March 25 2024. The current correction is almost the same (-48.50%) as the January - April 2023 (-47.15%), while the other two have been around -39%.
The key for now is to close a 1W candle above both the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). That will be the last confirmation for this Bullish Leg. This on its own is a very pessimistic development, with the presence of only the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) remaining to offer support long-term.
Now as for the upside, the minimum % rise of a Bullish Leg within this Channel Up has been +146.82% (two times). As a result, as long as the 1W RSI closes this week above its MA trend-line (yellow), a bullish signal that emerged on all previous 4 bottoms of the Channel, we can expect the new Bullish Leg to rise on a minimum +146.82% from its bottom, which gives us a $360.00 Target.
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CRM’s Bullish Setup: Inverted Head & Shoulders BreakoutSalesforce Inc. (NYSE: CRM) continues to innovate and maintain its position among the leading players in the cloud space, as highlighted in recent financial reports. The company’s growth has been driven by its focus on customer relationship management (CRM) technologies and its expansion into artificial intelligence, which has bolstered its offerings. Despite broader market headwinds, Salesforce has managed to navigate the tech sector’s volatility with strategic initiatives and solid earnings performance.
Technical Outlook: Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern
On the weekly chart, Salesforce stock shows the formation of a classic inverted head and shoulders pattern, a bullish signal indicating potential upward momentum. The key resistance level stands at $314.70 , which the stock attempted to breach earlier this year, experiencing rejection in February, marking the stock’s all-time high. A retest of this key resistance appears likely in the near term.
If the stock manages to confirm a breakout above this zone, our target price is set at $339.48 , a level that aligns with historical resistance and bullish momentum projections. To manage downside risk, we suggest placing a stop loss at $259.75 , a lower support level that provides solid technical backing in case of market reversals. This setup offers a risk-reward ratio (RR) of 1.5, making it an attractive option for traders seeking a medium-term position.
Quantum Probability Indicator: Strong Momentum Signals
Our proprietary Quantum Probability indicator, W.ARITAs , further strengthens the bullish outlook on CRM stock. The indicator points to strong technical momentum, suggesting a high probability of the stock moving toward our target zone. This momentum aligns with Salesforce's broader market positioning and favorable investor sentiment.
Conclusion: Positive Short-Term Outlook for CRM
Salesforce Inc. has demonstrated resilience in a challenging market environment, and its technical indicators now suggest a potential breakout. With a target price of $339.48 , a stop loss at $259.75 , and a 1.5 risk-reward ratio , this setup presents a favorable opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on bullish market conditions. As always, investors should remain cautious and monitor key resistance levels for confirmation of a breakout.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on technical indicators and market observations. It is not financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
WIPRO LONG Trade Hits First Target! Bullish Momentum BuildsWipro has shown a strong bullish movement, reaching Take Profit 1 (TP1) at 550.85 on 14th October at 12:45 PM.
Key Levels
Entry : 540.80 – Wipro started its upward movement from this key support level, leading to a breakout.
Stop-Loss (SL) : 532.65 – This level is positioned below the entry to protect against any potential downside risk.
Take Profit 1 (TP1) : 550.85 – Already achieved, confirming the strength of the uptrend.
Take Profit 2 (TP2) : 567.10 – The next target to watch as bullish momentum continues.
Take Profit 3 (TP3) : 583.35 – If buying pressure persists, this level could be tested next.
Take Profit 4 (TP4) : 593.40 – The ultimate target signaling the potential for a strong bullish rally.
Trend Analysis
The price is clearly above the support of the Risological dotted trendline, indicating a strong uptrend. The sharp upward movement followed by a small consolidation suggests the possibility of further gains.
With TP1 reached, the next targets are in focus, and a move above 550.85 will likely lead to TP2 being hit.
Wipro has reached its first profit target at 550.85, confirming bullish momentum. The next targets at 567.10 and beyond could be reached if the uptrend holds, with solid support from the Risological trendline and strong buying interest.
Muthoot Finance Long Trade on 15m Time Frame: Trade in ProgressA long entry was initiated at 1927.05 on the 9th of October at 10:15 am. The price is nearing Target 1 (1963.50) and remains on track for further movement towards the upper targets. We have now set a trailing stop at 1928.50 to lock in gains and manage risk.
Target Points:
TP 1: 1963.50 (close to being hit)
TP 2: 2022.50
TP 3: 2081.50
TP 4: 2117.95
Trailing Stop: 1928.50
Stop Loss (SL): 1897.55
We'll keep a close eye on this position as it progresses towards the remaining targets.
UBER Breakaway or Pullback? Trend Analysis
Bullish Momentum: Strong upward momentum with a recent gap up indicates bullish sentiment.
Breakout: Price has broken through previous resistance levels, suggesting continuation.
Price Action Analysis
Gap Up: Significant gap up on high volume signals strong buying pressure.
Pullback Levels: Potential support near $82 could provide buying opportunities.
Indicator Analysis
Volume Surge: High volume confirms the strength of the breakout.
EMA Support: Exponential Moving Average trending up, supporting the bullish outlook.
Forecast Summary
Expected Movement: Anticipate further upward movement, possibly testing new highs.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Level: Around $80, previously a resistance.
Resistance Level: Near $87, recent high.
Additional Support: Potential at $77, recent consolidation area.
Additional Resistance: Beyond $87 towards $90, historically significant zone.
Triggers/Events: Earnings reports or market news may impact volatility and direction.
Trading should focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks, monitoring key support levels, and staying alert for market events that could influence price dynamics.
Linc trying to link back to good times. Linc Ltd. engages in the manufacture and distribution of ball point pen. Its products include gel pen, ball pen, fountain pen, stationery, notebook, and files and folders. It operates through the Writing Instrument and Stationary segment. The company is the exclusive Indian selling agent of the premium pen range of Mitsubishi Pensils Company, Japan. Linc also have a similar arrangement with Besia, Taiwan to sell non-sharpening pensils and erasers. Linc Ltd CMP is 630.65. The Negative aspects of the company are Declining Net Cash Flow Promoter decreasing their shareholding, The positive aspects of the company are Company with No Debt, Company with Zero Promoter Pledge and FII / FPI or Institutions increasing their shareholding. Entry can be taken after closing above 646. Targets in the stock will be 664, 683 and 700. The long-term target in the stock will be 717, 740 and 760. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 578.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Bandhan Bank trying to change trend with volume.Bandhan Bank Ltd. engages in the provision of banking and financial services. It operates through the following segments: Treasury, Retail Banking, Corporate and Wholesale Banking, and Other Banking Business. Bandhan Bank Ltd CMP is 210.26. The Negative aspects of the company are MFs decreased their shareholding last quarter and Inefficient use of capital to generate profits - RoCE declining in the last 2 years. The positive aspects of the company are Company with Zero Promoter Pledge, Rising Net Cash Flow and Cash from Operating activity, Company with high TTM EPS Growth and Growth in Net Profit with increasing Profit Margin (QoQ). Entry can be taken after closing above 212. Targets in the stock will be 223 and 241. The long-term target in the stock will be 254 and 262. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 188 or 183.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
TESLA Can it reverse the ROBOTAXI DISASTER?Tesla (TSLA) plummeted on opening today following yesterday's Robotaxi event, dropping as much as -10% intra day below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and touching the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since August 05.
The market clearly considered the Robotaxi and the other aspects of the event a disaster fundamentally and the early impression is imprinted on this price collapse. The question on investors' minds is, can the company reverse the sentiment?
Well, technically there is a big reason why the price has been pulling back since the September 30 High and that is simple. It has been rejected exactly on the Lower Highs trend-line that started on Tesla's All Time High (ATH) back on November 04 2021.
As you can see, this powerful multi-year Resistance has already 5 rejections (red circles) under its belt. But on the bright side, the price has shown clear signs of reversing this long-term and the biggest is the Higher Lows since the January 06 2023 market bottom (the 2nd Higher Low on April 22 2024).
On top of that we are seeing the potential for a Channel Up (blue) since the April 22 2024 bottom and is being supported by the 1D MA100. Below that, the last (symmetrical) Support Zone is offered by the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 195.00 level (so a zone roughly within 195.00 - 203.00). Below that, the recovery potential is endangered to a great extent.
So to summarize, there are strong support levels that may cause yesterday's disastrous fundamental sentiment to reverse but most of all, Tesla needs to break above its ATH Lower Highs trend-line. If it does, the first target of the new Bullish Leg should be $380.00 (Higher High on the blue Channel Up).
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JOHNSON & JOHNSON Excellent confirmed sell signalJohnson & Johnson (JNJ) gave us the most optimal buy entry on our last call (April 17, see chart below) and easily hit our 157.50 Target:
Having been rejected early in September exactly at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 2-year Channel Down and now establishing price action below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), this is a confirmed sell signal and the start of the Channel's 5th Bearish Leg. The RSI Lower Highs are common on all previous Channel tops.
Our Target is 141.00, which is on the Internal Lower Lows trend-line (formed by the last 2 Lower Lows) and still above the 1.236 Fibonacci extension.
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** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
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