Stocksignals
Google's Dive: Next Stop Wave 2?
Google is currently experiencing a significant drop, just as expected, with a decline of more than 3%. We should soon be at a point to conclude Wave A of this correction, then move upwards into Wave B, and finally downwards into Wave C. The exact development remains uncertain. Google moves very similarly to Apple, yet they are not in an identical cycle. We don't foresee a possibility of a much deeper fall, perhaps only a retest of the $83.34 level. However, we shouldn't fall much below that. We're anticipating that we are in a Wave (2), which should reach between 50 and 78.6%. This places Google's level between $119 and $99 in this scenario. We will keep you updated on the type of correction—zigzag or flat—we are dealing with. For now, we strongly believe that we will soon see this Wave (2) materialize.
TESLA Is this a W-shaped recovery?Tesla (TSLA) held Support 1 (160.50) last Friday, in fact it touched it and rebounded immediately making a technical Double Bottom formation. Yesterday it broke and closed above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since March 04, providing s serious bullish continuation signal.
The most important development however, is that this Double Bottom has strong probabilities of giving a W-shaped recovery pattern. A break above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) will technically confirm that, as it will be the first time above it in 3 months (since January 09).
We can already see the 4H RSI on Higher Lows, i.e. a Bullish Divergence, which favors these probabilities. Our short-term Target is 205.00 (marginally below Resistance 2).
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DCM Shriram can make a recovery and give a Breakout. DCM Shriram Ltd. is a diversified company with business in agri, chemicals, plastics, cement, textiles and energy services. They are having two broad operational thrusts namely, the energy intensive businesses that include chloro-vinyl chain and cement and the agri-businesses that cover urea, sugar, hybrid seeds and agri-merchandised inputs. The business portfolio of the Company comprises of Chloro-Vinyl, sugar, Shriram Farm Solutions, bio seed, fertilizers, etc.
DCM Shriram Ltd. CMP is 954.4. The Negative aspects of the company are Moderately high valuation (P.E. = 28.7), declining annual net profit, MFs are decreasing stake. The company's Positive aspects are No debt, increasing cash from operations annual, Zero promoter pledge, FIIs are increasing stake,
Entry can be taken after closing above 955. Final Entry closing above 990. Targets in the stock will be 1029, 1055 and 1079. The long-term target in the stock will be 1109, 1145 and 1178. Stop loss in the stock can be 900 or 870 depending upon your risk taking ability.
The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Oracle: Is a Crash Inevitable?
Oracle is another stock we're adding to our analysis. Firstly we're particularly looking at the monthly chart to grasp the big picture. We believe that since the start of the entire cycle around the $3 mark at the turn of the millennium, there has been a rise to a maximum level of $127.5, marking the end of our Wave I or the 5-wave cycle. Now, we anticipate being in Wave II, which should retrace between 50% and a maximum of 78.6%, with our target entry at the 50% level, coinciding with the support zone of Wave (4). However, we firmly believe that we won't exceed $127 again unless we encounter an Expanded Flat scenario, where reaching 138% is still possible, but we should not surpass it. Therefore, Oracle presents a very bearish scenario over a long period. We will also look for possible short-term entries to potentially initiate positions.
LVMH Best time to buy is now.Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMH) recently broke below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and this is the most optimal buy opportunity for the long-term as following the 1D Golden Cross, a Channel Up is emerging.
This appears to be so far similar to the Channel Up of October 2022 - April 2023, which led the stock to its All Time High (ATH) at the time. Both sequences seem identical as they both started after a -30% decline with a 1D Death Cross, then found bottom and started the Accumulation process for a Double Bottom buy opportunity, which led to the eventual Channel Up.
That past Channel Up peaked just below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we see a huge buy opportunity towards the end of the summer with our Target being $1150 (just below the 1.5 Fib ext).
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NOVO NORDISK on the 1D MA50 starts looking a buy again.Novo Nordisk (NVO) hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again for the first time since December 18 2023 and after a long time it gives buy signals again. The correction came after the March 07 rejected at the top of the (dotted) Channel Up, following overbought 1D RSI levels before that for 2 weeks.
That is a pattern consistent with all previous Higher High formation of the Channel UP and then all rebounded after the 1D RSI hit its 1 year Support Zone. The final level to buy, if the price drops that low, would be the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
Our Targets are first $139.00 (Resistance 1) and finally $158.00 (top of the (dotted) Channel Up).
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Noble Corporation | NEEnergy stocks score biggest rise in a month as OPEC+ cuts begin
Energy stocks closed an otherwise mediocre week in strong fashion, as oil traders who have grappled with concerns over the global demand outlook may finally see signs of tightening in the oil market.
Saudi Arabia and Russia started the week announcing fresh production cuts that will bring total reductions by OPEC+ to 5M bbl/day, or ~5% of global oil demand.
Supporting prices this week, U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected and gasoline inventories posted a large draw, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported.
But gains were capped as the Federal Reserve appeared to be headed for further interest rate hikes, possibly at its policy meeting later this month.
And while Saudi Arabia limits its production, supply is gaining elsewhere; Iran, for example, is increasingly circumventing U.S. sanctions, with oil shipments of ~1.6M bbl/day on average in May and June, according to Kpler and Petro Logistics, more than double the level of about a year ago and the highest since 2018.
Separately, the Biden administration said late Friday it will purchase another 6M barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Front-month Nymex crude oil (CL1:COM) for August delivery gained more than $2.00/bbl Friday to push the U.S. benchmark +4.5% for the week to $73.86/bbl, its highest settlement since May 24, while September Brent crude (CO1:COM) closed the week +4% to $78.47/bbl, its best settlement since May 1.
U.S. natural gas futures (NG1:COM) closed -7.7% for the week, settling at $2.58/MMBtu, as volatile weather in much of the U.S. complicated the outlook for demand.
ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO), (BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (DBO), (USL), (DRIP), (GUSH), (USOI), (NRGU), (UNG), (UGAZF), (BOIL), (KOLD), (UNL), (FCG)
The top energy sector ETF (NYSEARCA:XLE) finished the week -0.5%, placing it in the middle of the pack among the S&P's 11 sectors, but closed +2.1% on Friday, its biggest single-day gain in a month.
Oilfield services companies (OIH) Schlumberger (SLB), Halliburton (HAL) and Baker Hughes (BKR) ranked as three of Friday's top four gainers on the S&P 500, +8.6%, +7.8% and +4.8%, respectively.
Top 10 gainers in energy and natural resources during the past 5 days: (RIG) +20.4%, (WAVE) +19.2%, (OII) +18.3%, (NE) +18.1%, (DO) +17.1%, (TDW) +16.4%, (NRT) +16.3%, (NINE) +13.9%, (IPI) +13.2%, (LBRT) +12.4%.
Top 5 decliners in energy and natural resources during the past 5 days: (ORGN) -12.7%, (PPSI) -11.8%, (NPWR) -10.7%, (MARPS) -9.9%, (MTR) -9.3%.
Since June of 2020, Noble Corporation Plc has undergone a substantial transformation while drastically reducing its total liabilities and ongoing financing expenses.Since June 2020, NE has filed and exited bankruptcy, acquired its former competitor Pacific Drilling, regained NYSE listing, and completed a merger with Maersk drilling. Over the period, total liabilities and quarterly net interest expenses were reduced 65% and 74% respectively.
Over the last several quarters, some offshore drillers have reported growing revenue.Quarterly revenue is plotted from June 2020 forward for NE and its offshore drilling peers. Recently, revenues across the industry have rebounded from their early 2021 lows. NE quarterly revenue (plotted in dark blue) has increased from $220M in mid-2020 to $586M in FQ4 22 (+166%).
While quarterly revenue has more than doubled recently, NE has also become profitable. Normalized net income has increased from -19% in mid-2020 to its most recent value of 23%. FQ1 23 estimated revenues are expected to remain elevated at $540.5M while decreasing slightly from FQ4 22 revenues of $586M.
Based on the peer average EV/Sales and estimated FY 23 revenue, NE's fair value share price was estimated at $ 62
TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR has one last Low to give.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) broke last month above the long-term Channel Up and immediately pull-back. So far it has been almost 1 month of sideways trading supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been holding since November 02 2023.
The 1D RSI is on a Channel Down, i.e. a Bearish Divergence and every time it formed this within the Channel Up, the stock corrected to at least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) by -18.73%. This time the 1D MA200 is considerably higher, so with this Bearish Divergence giving more probabilities to extending the pull-back, we do expect one last Low but not as strong as the previous corrections.
This time a -18.29% decline from the top would make a healthy test of the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), good enough to continue the long-term bullish trend with new buyers in the market. The 1D MA50 break, would be the confirmation. As a result, we are now set a short-term target on TSM at $129.00.
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JOHNSON & JOHNSON More pain along the way. SELL.Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) got rejected on its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) - 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) Resistance Zone. It has been practically trading sideways since the start of the year and based on the Sine Waves, that priced the new Top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 2-year Channel Down pattern.
The expected completion of a Bearish Cross this week on the 1W RSI, will confirm the Sell Signal, as all 3 previous Bearish Cross sequences were forme just after a Top. Though their declines ranged from -17.58% to -14.78%, we will use the October 10 2022 Low as an example and target the 0.9 Fibonacci retracement level at 147.00 as since the Bullish Leg was limited, we expect an equally less aggressive Bearish Leg towards the bottom of the Sine Waves.
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Xiaomi: Next Big Bang on the Hong Kong Stock Market?
For another interesting Chinese stock, we're looking at the mobile phone manufacturer Xiaomi, trading on the Hong Kong Exchange. Hence, we're dealing with the Hong Kong Dollar, not the US Dollar. Overarchingly, we are also in a Wave III here. Wave II concluded its correction with a double bottom at HK$8.28. This chart adheres well to the Elliott Wave structure, showcasing many patterns that align well.
Currently, we believe we are in a subordinate Wave 3, having completed the subordinate Wave ((ii)) between the 61.8% and 78.6% levels. Unlike other stocks, we aim to place a market entry here, as we anticipate that we should not fall below the 78.6% level. Else we could come back to the low of 8.28 HKD.
SLB Set To Acquire ChampionX, Return $7 Bln To ShareholdersNYSE:SLB , formerly known as Schlumberger, has announced plans to acquire ChampionX ( NASDAQ:CHX ), a leading provider of chemistry solutions and drilling technology. The acquisition, coupled with a substantial $7 billion shareholder return plan, signals SLB's commitment to driving growth and delivering value to its investors in the years to come.
The all-stock transaction, unanimously approved by ChampionX's board of directors, will see ChampionX shareholders receiving 0.735 shares of NYSE:SLB common stock for each NASDAQ:CHX share they own. Upon completion of the deal, ChampionX shareholders will own approximately 9% of SLB's outstanding common stock, underscoring the scale and significance of the acquisition.
Houston-based SLB anticipates significant synergies from the merger, with annual pretax benefits of approximately $400 million expected in the first three years post-closing. These benefits will be derived from a combination of revenue growth and cost savings, further enhancing SLB's competitive position in the market.
The transaction is subject to regulatory approval and the green light from ChampionX shareholders, with NYSE:SLB aiming to finalize the deal before the end of 2024. Additionally, SLB has announced plans to return $7 billion to shareholders over the next two years, reaffirming its commitment to maximizing shareholder value and enhancing returns.
Goldman Sachs has expressed confidence in SLB's prospects, adding the stock to its Conviction List and maintaining a buy rating. This move reflects the firm's bullish outlook on SLB's growth trajectory and strategic initiatives.
The acquisition of ChampionX follows SLB's recent agreement to purchase a majority stake in Aker Carbon Capture, further expanding its portfolio and strengthening its position in the energy sector. With ACC set to own 20% of the combined entity, SLB's acquisition strategy is aimed at bolstering its capabilities and diversifying its offerings to meet the evolving needs of the industry.
On the stock front, NYSE:SLB saw a slight easing of 1% following the announcement, while ChampionX shares surged by 10.4%. Both companies have been consolidating since early 2023, with SLB's stock showing a promising trajectory towards a potential breakout point. With West Texas Intermediate oil prices trading above $85 for the first time since October, the industry outlook appears favorable, providing a tailwind for SLB's growth prospects.
As NYSE:SLB embarks on this transformative journey, the acquisition of ChampionX and the robust shareholder return plan underscore the company's vision and commitment to driving sustainable value creation. With a solid foundation and a strategic focus on innovation and efficiency, SLB is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities and deliver long-term value for its shareholders.
Palantir: Time to Exit?Upon closer reevaluation of Palantir, we continue to believe that we have not yet completed Wave (2) and that the price should not continue to rise. Our initial hypothesis was invalidated; we first expected to see Wave 5 at $19. Now, we assume Wave 5, or rather Wave (1), at $21.85, having developed Waves A and B, with Wave B at $25.69. This should also form our top and serve as an Expanded Flat, which we set from Wave A downwards. This closely aligns with the 61.8% level, which is highly probable for a Wave (2). Our target range is between $12 and $9.36. We should not fall below this; otherwise, we would consider closing the position down to $7.19, although we deem this unlikely. We believe the price will move within this range. We will place a limit buy order only after observing a significant weakness in Palantir.
MASTERCARD Short-term pull-back has begunLast time (August 23 2023, see chart below) we looked at Mastercard (MA) the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) gave us a solid buy opportunity, which easily hit our 415.00 Target:
The price is now starting to pull-back after marginally breaking the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Up (blue). It already broke below the medium-term (dotted) Channel Up and is headed towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
With the 1D RSI already on Lower Highs (i.e. a Bearish Divergence against the stock's Higher Highs), we believe this is an early Sell Signal on the short-term. The March 13 2023 Target was the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, so we are currently aiming for $440.00.
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TESLA Can it break the 1D MA50 and sustain an uptrend?Tesla has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone pattern since the July 19 2023 High. The recent Low (March 14 2024) came very close to the 152.50 Support, which is the April 27 2023 Low. This shows just how strong the current bearish structure is.
Medium-term traders/ investors can expect a sustainable uptrend only when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks, which has been the Resistance all this time since January 09 2024 (almost 3 months). If it does break above it, we expect a +41.50% rise from the bottom (+5% more than the previous Bullish Leg), targeting $225.00. That is considered conservative based on the margins of the Bearish Megaphone as the previous two Lower Highs were priced on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
The fact that the 1D MACD has already formed a Bullish Cross below the 0.00 level, favors statistically the upside case, as in the past 12 months such a signal failed to break above the 1D MA50 only once out of 4 times in total.
Until it does break it though, the trend remains bearish short-term towards Support 1 (152.50).
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UNITED HEALTH Time to buy again?Last time we looked into United Health (UNH) we gave a strong buy signal (October 03 2023, see chart below), which turned out to be very successful:
After getting rejected on Resistance 3, the stock started to decline structurally within a Channel Down. It is a pattern similar to the Channel Down of November 2022 - March 2023, which was again formed after UNH got rejected within the 2-year Resistance Zone, like it happened this time.
There is a high symmetry these past 2 years within the Resistance and Support Zones, so we expect the price to act accordingly. As a result, having already formed a 1D Death Cross, we expect the price to make one last Low towards the Support Zone (as long as the 1D MA50 holds as Resistance) and then rebound, which is what took place on March 10 2023, above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, we will time our buy accordingly and target $517.00 (Fib 0.618). An additional buy signal would be if the 1W RSI makes a Double Bottom, similar again to March 10 2023.
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EXXON MOBIL This sell signal will take it to $105.00 minimum.Exxon Mobil (XOM) has been on a tremendous since the January 18 bottom and even more so since the start of this month (March). We are about to form a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame and last time this pattern emerged (September 20 2023), the market top was formed a week after.
In fact all Tops since November 2022 where formed on a Higher High sequence, confirmed by a 1D MACD Bearish Cross. As a result, we are waiting for the ideal sell opportunity on Exxon's next High and we will enter it after the MACD forms a Bearish Cross. All previous 3 corrective waves have hit at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. That gives us a medium-term Target of $105.00.
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