Paypal #PYPL: Elliott Wave Analysis 🚀🌐A remarkable surge in Paypal!
Likely concluding the overarching Wave II in October, we've since built Wave (i). Our limit order at the 50% retracement was missed, but with the CEO's announcement that Paypal is set to change the world, it skyrocketed by 15%. The future trajectory of Paypal remains to be seen, but we anticipate at least a rise to $80. Long-term, we set our sights on significantly higher targets, given that this is the initial Wave II, and we shouldn't drop back to the $50 or $57 levels. 🚀🌐
Stocksignals
MEDC: Repeating Bullish Pattern, Upside Potential +16%?Hi Realistic Traders, let's delve into the technical analysis of IDX:MEDC !
The current market trend for the stock unmistakably showcases a bullish continuation pattern, marked by consistent upward movement above the EMA200 Line, signaling enduring momentum. At the same time, MEDC has formed a descending broadening wedge pattern twice. In December 2023, this pattern served as a catalyst, igniting a bullish reversal or heralding the start of a bullish trend. Yet, the subsequent formation of the descending broadening wedge pattern took on a new significance, becoming a widely recognized indication of ongoing bullish sentiment.
What's particularly notable is the recent breakout from the DBW pattern, accompanied by a significant surge in trading volume. This reinforces our confidence in a sustained upward trajectory. Given these compelling indicators, we anticipate an exciting potential upward movement in price. Our analysis points to a designated target ripe for potential gains, making this an enticing opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on market trends.
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached.
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Medco Energi International."
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eBay: Is the Big Turnaround Coming?
Looking at the eBay chart, we believe that Wave (1) and (2) were completed at $4.17, as well as Waves (3), (4) and (5). However, we've had some uncertainties regarding the positioning of Wave (3). Nonetheless, where we've positioned Waves (3) and (4) makes the most sense to us. Regardless, it could still be considered that Wave (5) and the overarching Wave I have truly peaked at $81.19. Zooming in on the 4-hour chart, it seems more like we are dealing with an extended Wave II rather than a different downward correction. Thus, we don't believe that $81.19 marks the position of Wave (3), as we're dealing with a 5-wave impulse downwards. This could indicate we're looking at a zigzag movement, broadly marked as (A), (B), then (C).
We believe we have already seen the subordinate Waves A and B, and now we should be developing a 5-wave impulse upwards to complete Wave C and the overarching Wave (B) between 61.8% and 78.6%. Afterward, we should see another significant drop. For eBay, we're operating on a higher timeframe, so this process will take longer. However, once we reach there, it will present excellent entry opportunities for us to build a long-term position.
AMD flashed the strongest 1W sell signal you can get.Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has hit the top of the Fibonacci Channel Up last week and immediately got rejected, closing the 1W candle almost flat. This is a significant 1 week turnaround, which may evolve into a bearish reversal as the 1W RSI gave the strongest sell signal possible.
That is reversing on the 82.50 (overbought) level, which since the 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis has always delivered a strong medium-term correction. If we focus on the last 4 years alone, we can see on the chart 4 such correction events ranging from - 21.50% to -39.50%.
As a result, we are sellers on AMD, aiming at a $180 minimum (-21.50%). If it drops more, we will wait for a more comfortable buy at $140 (-39.50%), which should potentially make contact with either the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) or the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). The latter has been a former Resistance during the Bear Cycle that turned into Support after May 2023, while the 1W MA50 has two clear bottoms that evolved into aggressive rallies since the week of May 01 2023.
Basically this signal is more useful to long-term investors for when taking profit and how to make two lower buy entries and manage the long-term risk effectively, while having a $300 long-term target.
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SPLK | Splunk & CiscoShares of Splunk were up 21.3% as of 1:10 p.m ET Thursday after the data analytics and observability specialist agreed to be acquired by Cisco Systems
More specifically, on Thursday morning Splunk announced it has entered into a definitive agreement under which Cisco will acquire the company for $157 per share in cash a roughly 31% premium from Wednesday's closing price. The deal places an equity value on Splunk of approximately $28 billion.
"We're excited to bring Cisco and Splunk together," said Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins in a statement. "Our combined capabilities will drive the next generation of AI-enabled security and observability."
Splunk, for its part, was already up nearly 40% year to date leading into the announcement, helped by a post-earnings pop last month after the company delivered significantly stronger-than-expected fiscal second-quarter results. At the time, Splunk CEO Gary Steele highlighted his company's focus on accelerating innovation as a key beneficiary of the rise of artificial intelligence stocks.
The acquisition has already been unanimously approved by both companies' boards of directors, but still requires the approval of regulators and Splunk shareholders. Assuming all goes as planned, the transaction should close by the end of the third quarter of calendar year 2024. Cisco believes the purchase should be cash-flow-positive and gross margin accretive in the first fiscal year post close, and accretive to nonGAAP earnings per share in the second year.
Splunk stock is trading at a modest 7.7% discount to the agreed purchase price. So given the cash nature of the deal -- and unless waiting longer to sell might qualify you for long-term capital gains tax rates on your profits -- I think most Splunk shareholders would do well to take their money and put it to work in any number of other promising stocks.
SPLK is super bullish because its passed 50 and 200 EMA and also it broke 109$ resistance as well, the volume and most indicators are bullish too
SMCI Has it topped?Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) is about to complete a 10 straight green week streak if the 1W candle closes bullish today. This is a highly impressive feat that not only it hasn't done before but only a few stocks have managed to do historically. On the other hand, this may be a signal that yet again, SMCI is time to take a breather.
Why? First because it has completed a +417.86% price increase since the October 30 2023 Low, which is the exact % rise the stock did during its previous Bullish Leg from January 27 2023 to July 31 2023. At the same time, the 1W RSI is testing the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up that started in June 2018.
If rejected today, we expect the stock to correct by -35.55%, which might be significant, but nothing compared to the rise it has achieved. In fact as you can see on the chart, such % decline has been very common in the past 4 years. Amidst the correction, we expect it to make contact with the 1D MA100 (red trend-line). As long as the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) holds as a Support, the long-term bullish trend is intact, and every such correction is a long-term buy opportunity.
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NYKAATechnical Data
1.Accumulation Phase of About 1 Year
2.Increased Volume during Accumulation Phase
3.Big Breakout on Weekly TF with Big Volume
4. Retest of This phase is also done
5. Price Respected Breakout zone of 150-155
6. Rejection & Buying Confirmed on Weekly TF
Fundamental Data Analysis
1.Company is posting Increased Quarterly Results
2.Fundamentals & Company management is strong
3.Big Institutions also increasing stakes continuously
4. Kind of monopoly listed player in Market
(Study BSE for monopoly listed player)
5. Consistently growing business & market share
Buy at CMP @155-157
SL- @135
Target 1-310 (100% Returns)
Target 2 - 410 (More than 150%)
Time Period- Next 6-12 Months
APPLE Long-term buying commencing.Apple (AAPL) is exactly -15% down since the December 14 2023 High and is approaching the Support Zone of the October 26 2023 Low. We are currently on the 3rd major correction of the last 18 months and being that close to both the Support Zone and the bottom of the Channel Down, suggests that institutional buying should be initiated.
If the current overall market volatility evolves into a short-term correction towards the Fed Rate Decision later this month, then there is always the possibility of Apple experiencing another -10% decline. But the upside even from the current level is greater at almost +30% and that is a conservative target based purely on the Higher highs trend-line since the August 17 2022 High.
We recommend buying now and if the price drops more as mentioned, a final buy on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which has been untouched for almost 8 years (since June 28 2016)! Our Target for late Q2 is $215.00. Note also that the 1D RSI hasn't been that low (oversold at 23.00) since February 02 2018, which adds more to the bullish case.
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LSXMA - Good Upside PotentialLSXMA broke the parallel channel that was holding the price since November 2022 after making a double bottom with the March 2020 low, I also liked the fact that the 2D SMMA was also broken, after having served as resistance since January 2023 and it is currently retesting it, and as if that wasn't enough to be bullish, LSXMA had a bullish divergence on the RSI on the weekly time frame.
I believe that if the LSXMA price holds above the parallel channel (SMMA), it could be the beginning of a new up trend, and could give good gains in the medium term.
Tesla is looking very bad. 150 is my targetIn mid-December of last year, NASDAQ:TSLA broke above the falling trend line. At that point, I predicted a continuation upward to the next resistance level at 300.
However, after initially rising to 263, the price began to reverse and what initially appeared to be a resumption of the upward trend turned out to be a major false break.
In January, despite prevailing optimism in the stock market, Tesla's price trajectory remained bearish, diverging from broader market trends.
Moving closer to recent days, the 200 support level was broken with a gap, signaling another major bearish sign. Currently, the gap has been filled, and Tesla is testing this support level as new resistance. Considering the imminent correction for US indices, we may witness a significant drop in Tesla's case.
I anticipate a target of 150 for this drop, although, to be honest, the 100 zone is not out of the question.
COINBASE rallying as it should since our last call. What's next?Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) has started an amazing rally following our February 05 buy signal (see chart below) and is headed towards the $285.00 Target:
We are modifying the Channel Up to make contact with all three Higher Lows as the Higher Highs comfortably fit the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel retracement level. As you can see all previous Higher Highs have been formed with a 1D candle closing below the 0.786 Fib and right now the price is sitting exactly on that level.
This indicates that as long as the stock doesn't clos a 1D candle above it, we may see one last short-term pull-back towards the 0.5 Fib before eventually reaching the $285.00 Target. If however a 1D candle does close above the 0.786 Fib, we do expect the current rally to continue straight to the Target.
Notice at the same time the 1D RSI entering the 2023 Resistance Zone. This is an unnoticed key dynamic as the previous Higher Highs were priced after the RSI got rejected on the Resistance Zone and it entered back blow the 70.00 overbought barrier. Keep an eye for a timely exit.
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NETFLIX Last pull-back possible before $750Netflix (NFLX) has been trading within a long-term Channel Up on the logarithmic scale for the past 20 months. The trend is very aggressive to the upside and since the first Bullish Leg made a Higher High on February 03 2022 on a +130.30% rise, we do expect a similar % rally that would technically target a little below $800, so aiming at $750 would be a fair price.
Until then however, the Channel Up structure suggests that the stock has entered the Volatility Phase which during the previous Bullish Leg took place right before the Peak. As a result, a last pull-back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) would also be fair. Technically it could seek the -0.236 Fibonacci extension ($550) from the Take-off Phase's High.
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Easing Inflation Rate Spurs Optimism for a Bullish Trend?Hi Realistic Traders. Here's my price action analysis on the S&P 500!
The CBOE:SPX has convincingly breached the double bottom, presenting a compelling signal for a potential bullish reversal. The price trajectory exhibits a sustained upward movement, concurrently shaping a continuation pattern recognized as the Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern. As this pattern unfolds, a subsequent breakout from the descending broadening wedge provides robust confirmation of a conceivable upward trajectory toward the specified target area. Beyond the prism of price dynamics, the oscillator has undergone a significant golden cross, adding another layer of confidence to the outlook and signaling the potential for a bullish market trend.
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached.
Recent Announcement of the Inflation Data
- In October 2023, the annual inflation rate in the United States decelerated to 3.2%, marking a decrease from 3.7% observed in both September and August. This figure also fell below market forecasts of 3.3%.
- The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, exhibited a marginal decline to an over two-year low of 4% in October 2023, down from 4.1% in the preceding month. Contrary to market expectations, which anticipated stability at 4.1%.
- The unexpected deceleration in inflation has fostered the anticipation that the Federal Reserve's assertive tightening cycle may have concluded. This development is instilling optimism for a bullish scenario in the market.
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on
CBOE:SPX ."
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TESLA can start a new rally to $300Last time we looked at Tesla (TSLA) was two weeks ago (February 15, see chart below) when we called for the bottom of the Channel Down pattern on a standard Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern:
This time we switch to the longer term 1W time-frame where the stock is making a rounded bottom below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 6-month Lower Lows trend-line. The last time we saw a rounded bottom like this was during the December 2022 global market bottom. In fact, the sequence from Tesla's ATH to that bottom is quite similar to the price action from the July 2023 High to now.
A common dynamic on both patterns is the ATH Lower Highs trend-line, which has 4 rejections so far. Since however the stock made a +112.48% rise on the 2022 bottom and then on the next bullish leg a +94.91%, we expect it to initiate a new such rally of +75% (if each rally is weaker by 20%) and target the July 17 2023 Resistance. As a result we have a medium-term Target of $300.
Notice also how symmetrical the 1W RSI sequences between the two are. Right now we are below the Support level which in 2022 priced the bottom.
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Goldman Sachs: Leap Over $500 or Just a Bubble?As we start into the Earnings Season, our focus turns to Goldman Sachs Group on the daily chart. Zooming out, we observe the completion of the higher-degree Waves III and IV, finalized at $290, marked by a Triangle where Wave E broke to the downside. Subsequently, an impulsive Wave (1) unfolded, reaching $390.
Now, the anticipation is set for Wave (2), expected to retracement between 50% and 78.6%. This retracement aligns neatly with a retest of the Triangle's trendline. The exact internal wave structure of Wave (2) remains uncertain. Given Goldman Sachs' tendency for gradual movements, we'll maintain our focus solely on the daily chart for now. This retest, while possibly extended, remains a retest, suggesting the opportunity for positioning in wave (2), or the a wave (3). Consequently, we continue to anticipate a significant and prolonged rise above the $500 mark, should the conditions align.
MICROSTRATEGY Top of the Channel. Time for a shortterm pullback?MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) has been trading inside a logarithmic Channel Up on the 1D time-frame since the December 30 2022 bottom. The price is currently at the very top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the pattern and that is a technical bearish signal on its own.
It gets increasingly relevant though if we consider the 1D RSI which is overbought and at its highest level since November 13 2023 and more importantly, the remarkable symmetry among the phases of the Channel Up.
As you ca see the price action from the October 04 2023 Higher Low until today is very similar with the price action from the December 30 2022 bottom until (so far) the April 14 2023 High. Both started on a +136.17% rise then -40% correction and a Channel Up rebound for a new Higher High. The symmetry is evident among the 1D RSI sequences as well.
If this continues to hold, we should be expecting a -22.88% pull-back followed by a +77.48% rally that will break above the long-term Channel Up, which would inevitably do at some point since the stock price is so positively correlated to Bitcoin's price.
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ROCKET LAB on an accumulation zone, +100% profit potential.Rocket Lab (RKLB) just formed a Death Cross on the 1D time-frame, almost a full month after rebounding near the 1.5 year Support Zone. This is technically an Accumulation Zone that the stock tends to make on that Support Zone before starting a parabolic Rally to the Higher Highs trend-line.
In fact it was the 1D Death Cross formed on March 15 2023 that started the previous Accumulation Phase, which resulted into a +114.46% really. As a result, we expect this Phase to last until the end of March maximum, and then start a parabolic rally. Assuming each rally is by +10% stronger than the previous (1st +105.08%, 2nd 114.46%) then we estimate the next one to be around +125%. This will make a perfect test of the 8.75 April 21 2022 High.
Notice how each rally peak is very efficiently depicted by the tops of the Sine Waves. Also during each Accumulation Phase, the 1D RSI forms a Bullish Divergence on Higher Lows.
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AMD Double Top formed. Time to pull-back?Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has been rising non-stop before February, and gave our last solid buy on our December 12 2023 analysis (see chart below):
Since then, it formed a High (Higher High for the 1.5 year Channel Up) on January 25 2024 and Resistance 1. On Friday it touched this level again, which is so far a technical Double Top formation. As long as it holds, we expect the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) to break for the first time in 4 months (since November 01 2023) and approach the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
On top of that, the 1D RSI is on Lower Highs that broke below the Higher Lows which has been the Sell Signal during the previous three occurrences. Our target is a minimum of -19.38% decline such as on the June 26 2023 Low. If the 1D MA100 breaks, we will open another one to target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 0.382 Fibonacci Channel level at 130.00, which will represent a -29.77% drop, being the total decline on the October 26 2023 Low.
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MPW's $4.60 Price Target After Bullish BreakoutTechnical Analysis
MPW has been showing some solid bullishness out of the buy zone. There has been 6 consecutive green weekly candles so far including this week. MPW is forming a bullish breakout above this light blue trendline and orange resistance zone. I think there will be a pullback at some point, but for now the trend is still bullish and $4.60 is the key price target on this move up.
Medical Properties Trust (MPW): Navigating Liquidity And Strategic Asset Management
Medical Properties Trust Inc. (NYSE: MPW) recently shared insights into its financial health and strategic direction during its fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. With a focus on creating significant liquidity and managing its diverse portfolio of healthcare facilities, the company outlined its plan to navigate through current challenges and capitalize on its strengths. This blog delves into the key takeaways from the earnings call, highlighting both the bullish and bearish aspects of MPW’s strategy and performance.
Strategic Initiatives For Enhanced Liquidity
MPW’s CEO, Edward Aldag Jr., unveiled a capital allocation strategy aimed at generating at least $2 billion in liquidity by 2024. This ambitious plan involves the sale of Australian facilities and hospitals to Prime Healthcare Services, showcasing MPW’s proactive approach to capital management. These strategic asset sales, alongside ongoing opportunities, underscore the company’s commitment to financial flexibility and growth.
Addressing Challenges With Optimism
Despite facing issues with Steward Health Care System’s cash collections, MPW remains optimistic. The company is actively working on re-tenanting Steward properties, reflecting confidence in its ability to manage tenant-related challenges effectively. Additionally, the improved performance of Prospect Medical Holdings adds a layer of positivity, reinforcing MPW’s diversified portfolio’s strength.
A Look At The Bearish And Bullish Highlights
Bearish Insights:
The distressed situation with Steward has necessitated strategic re-tenanting and asset sales to ensure consistent rent payments.
A significant write-down of $90 million for loans to Steward underscores the financial challenges faced.
Concerns remain for an operator within the cash accounting pool, projecting no financial support due to low coverage.
Bullish Perspectives:
Interest from multiple potential tenants for Steward properties indicates robust demand for MPW’s assets.
The company’s European and American portfolios, including Circle Health and Priory, demonstrate strong performance.
Prospect Medical Holdings’ turnaround contributes to the positive outlook, highlighting potential for growth.
Future Outlook And InvestingPro Insights
Looking ahead, MPW is poised to achieve its strategic objectives, bolstered by a focus on sustaining community health through acute care hospitals. The company’s strategic sales and financing plans aim to navigate the complex financial landscape successfully.
From an investment perspective, MPW presents a mixed bag of opportunities and challenges. According to InvestingPro data, the company boasts a market cap of $2.28 billion USD and an appealing dividend yield of 15.79%. The aggressive share buyback program and low Price / Book multiple suggest that MPW may be undervalued, offering potential for income generation and price appreciation.
Conclusion
Medical Properties Trust Inc. is at a pivotal point, with strategic initiatives in place to enhance liquidity and manage its portfolio effectively. While challenges remain, particularly with certain tenants, the company’s optimistic approach and strategic sales indicate a forward-looking perspective. For investors, MPW’s current valuation and dividend yield may offer attractive opportunities, especially for those focused on income generation and value investing. As MPW navigates its strategic path, its ability to adapt and capitalize on its strengths will be crucial in driving future success.