Get started

Stocksignals

WALMART 1W MA50 rebound makes a solid long-term investment.Walmart (WMT) ended its 2 month correction with an emphatic rebound on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). This is the first time it touches the 1W MA50 since December 11 2023 but it's not uncommon at all within its 10-year Channel Up. Every time the stock hi its 1W MA50 while the 1W RSI was this low, it was the most common long-term buy opportunity. Better than that was only the one time it hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) during the 2022 Inflation Crisis. As a result, we expect at least a 2.0 Fibonacci extension rebound similar to the May 2018 Low, and our long-term Target is now $135.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYSE:WMTLong
by TradingShot
T Trading Guide 4/21/25AT&T (T) Trading Analysis for Monday, April 21, 2025 Sentiment Analysis -Overview: Sentiment on X and StockTwits is neutral, with investors appreciating T’s 4.11% dividend yield but expressing concerns over tariff-driven cost increases. Analyst consensus remains stable, with a “Hold” rating and a $21.50 target (April 20 ), though some Reddit (r/options) users highlight margin pressures from tariffs. -Implication: Mixed sentiment suggests range-bound trading absent a catalyst, with tariff concerns capping upside potential. Strategic Outlook -Assessment: The outlook for Monday is neutral, supported by balanced options activity, oversold technicals with potential for a bounce, and a VIX at ~40 indicating volatility. -Implication: Anticipate a price range of $26.50 to $27.50, with support at $26.50 likely to hold and resistance at $27.50 posing a challenge for bulls. Market Influences -Overview: No new Federal Reserve decisions today; recent guidance on April 17 signals caution on rates, potentially impacting telecom spending. T’s earnings are due April 23, with a consensus EPS of $0.52 (April 20 ). Social media chatter on X and WallStreetBets focuses on dividend stability, though some Reddit users note tariff risks (10% baseline). No M&A news has surfaced. -Implication: Earnings anticipation and tariff pressures suggest cautious trading, likely keeping T within a tight range on Monday. Price Context -Overview: Current price at $27.15. The stock has declined 4% over the past month from $28.30 on March 31 and is up 13% year-over-year from $24.02 in April 2024. Support lies at $26.50, with resistance at $27.50. -Implication: Recent declines indicate limited upside; a break below $26.50 could signal further downside to $26.00. Technicals: Monthly: RSI at 45 (neutral), Stochastic at ~40 (neutral), MFI at ~42 (neutral). Price below 10/20-month SMAs ($28.00/~$29.00, bearish). Implication: Long-term bearish trend with neutral momentum. Weekly: RSI at 42 (neutral), Stochastic at ~35 (neutral), MFI at ~38 (neutral). Price below 10/20-day SMAs ($27.50/~$28.00, bearish). Implication: Bearish trend with neutral momentum, suggesting consolidation for weekly contracts. Daily: RSI at 40 (neutral), Stochastic at ~30 (neutral), MFI at ~35 (neutral). Price below 10/20-day SMAs ($27.20/~$27.50, bearish). Implication: Daily trend bearish, but oversold conditions may support a bounce. 4-Hour: RSI at 43 (neutral), Stochastic at ~38 (neutral), MFI at ~40 (neutral). Price below 10/20-period SMAs ($27.10/~$27.20, bearish). Implication: Medium-term bias bearish, aligning with weekly caution. Hourly: RSI at 46 (neutral), Stochastic at ~42 (neutral), MFI at ~44 (neutral). Price below 10/20-hour SMAs ($27.05/~$27.10, bearish). Implication: Intraday bias bearish, suggesting potential selling pressure. 10-Minute: RSI at 48 (neutral), Stochastic at ~45 (neutral), MFI at ~46 (neutral). Price below 10/20-period SMAs ($27.00/~$27.05, bearish). Implication: Short-term bias bearish, supporting a cautious weekly stance. Options Positioning Overview: Weekly options show balanced volume ($27.00 calls: 800 contracts, 50% at ask; $26.50 puts: 900 contracts, 55% at bid), with a put-call ratio of 1.1 (neutral) and IV skew flat ($27.00 calls/puts: 35%). Monthly options have a put-call ratio of 1.0, IV flat ($27.00: 32%). 3-Month options show a put-call ratio of 1.2, IV flat ($26.50: 30%). VIX at ~40 (down 5%, above 30-day average of ~35). Option Flow Dynamics (OFD) Analysis: Vanna: -Impact: Minimal, ±$0.02 intraday. -Insight: Balanced call/put volume and flat IV skew at 35% result in negligible delta adjustments by dealers, even with a VIX of 40. -Stance: Neutral for weekly contracts; bullish if IV exceeds 38%. Charm: -Impact: Pins price ±$0.02, minimal volatility. -Insight: High open interest at $27.00 (calls: 2,000 contracts, puts: 2,200 contracts) leads dealers to maintain delta neutrality, pinning the price near expiry. -Stance: Neutral for weekly contracts; bearish if price breaks above $27.50. GEX (Gamma Exposure): -Impact: Pins price ±$0.05, minimal volatility. -Insight: Balanced gamma from equal call/put open interest at $27.00 keeps price stable, though a VIX of 40 could amplify breakout volatility. -Stance: Neutral at $27.15 for weekly contracts; bearish above $27.50. DEX (Delta Exposure): -Impact: No directional bias. -Insight: A put-call ratio of 1.1 indicates balanced delta exposure, with dealers’ hedging activities netting zero directional impact. -Stance: Neutral for weekly contracts, even on high volume. OFD Summary: Weekly flows indicate a neutral bias, with price likely to remain within $26.50-$27.50, driven by balanced Vanna, Charm, GEX, and DEX dynamics. A VIX of 40 suggests potential volatility; earnings on April 23 could push IV above 38%, adding $0.05-$0.10 upside (Vanna). Monthly and 3-month expiries (put-call ratios 1.0 and 1.2) confirm range-bound confluence. -Implication: Neutral bias for weekly contracts; high VIX suggests volatility within the $26.50-$27.50 range for Monday. ICT/SMT Analysis -Overview: Weekly: Neutral, support at $26.50, resistance at $27.50, SMT divergence versus VZ shows relative strength. Daily: Neutral, FVG $27.50-$28.00, OB $26.00. 4-Hour: Neutral, MSS below $27.15, liquidity below $26.50. 1-Hour: Neutral, MSS below $27.15, liquidity below $26.50. 10-Minute: OTE sell zone $27.20-$27.30 (Fib 70.5%), target $26.50. -Implication: Neutral across timeframes; a breakdown below $26.50 could target $26.00, but weekly contracts are likely to see consolidation. Edge Insights -Institutional Flows: Recent block trades (April 18 ) show balanced buying and selling at $27.00, suggesting institutions are hedging rather than taking a directional stance. -Sector Stability: Telecom sector is down only 5% YTD (Morningstar ), providing relative stability compared to other sectors, though tariff costs remain a headwind for T. -Earnings Catalyst: With earnings due April 23, pre-earnings positioning may increase volatility, potentially favoring a breakout above $27.50 if sentiment shifts positively. -Implication: Sector stability supports a neutral weekly stance, but monitor for pre-earnings IV spikes that could shift dynamics. Trade Recommendation Analysis: -Neutral: 50% likelihood (balanced options flows, GEX pinning at $27.15, high VIX choppiness). -Bearish: 30% likelihood (MSS below $27.15, tariff pressures). -Bullish: 20% likelihood (oversold indicators, potential bounce above $27.50). -Action: Recommend a neutral stance with a bearish tilt; if bearish, buy $27.00 puts (weekly expiry) at ~$0.20, targeting $0.40, with a stop at $0.10 if T breaks $27.50. Risk $40 (2% of a $2,000 account). Conclusion for Monday: T is poised for range-bound trading within $26.50-$27.50, driven by neutral options flows and tariff concerns. Focus on a potential breakdown below $26.50 for weekly bearish trades, targeting $26.00. High VIX and impending earnings add risk—execute with tight stops to manage volatility.
NYSE:T
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
1
KSS Trading Guide 4/21/25Kohl's Corporation (KSS) Trading Analysis for Monday, April 21, 2025 Sentiment Analysis ----Overview: Sentiment on platforms like X and StockTwits leans bearish, driven by tariff concerns and Kohl’s weakening fundamentals, with projected sales declines of 5-7% in 2025. JP Morgan’s Underweight rating and $7 price target as of April 14 underscore margin pressures, though a ~12% dividend yield provides some appeal for income-focused investors. ----Implication: The prevailing negative sentiment, coupled with macroeconomic headwinds, is likely to exert downward pressure on KSS, overshadowing the dividend’s stabilizing effect. Strategic Outlook ----Assessment: The outlook for Monday is bearish, fueled by significant put activity in weekly options, persistently oversold technical indicators without reversal signals, and a VIX at ~40, reflecting heightened market volatility. ----Implication: Anticipate a price range of $6.20 to $6.50, with a risk of breaching support at $6.20, potentially driving the stock toward $5.80 if bearish momentum persists. Market Influences ----Overview: No new Federal Reserve decisions today; however, recent guidance on April 17 signals a cautious approach to rates, which could dampen retail spending. Kohl’s next earnings are scheduled for May 21, per TradingView data. Fitch Ratings downgraded KSS from BB to BB- on April 7, citing financial strain. Social media discussions on X, WallStreetBets, and StockTwits remain bearish, focusing on the impact of 10% baseline tariffs on margins. Additionally, the departure of Chief Technology Officer Siobhán Mc Feeney on April 1 introduces further uncertainty. ----Implication: The absence of positive catalysts, combined with tariff pressures and leadership changes, solidifies a bearish outlook for Monday. Price Context ----Overview: Current price at $6.48. The stock has declined 21% over the past month from $8.20 on March 31 and is down 73% year-over-year from $23.94 in April 2024. Support lies at $6.20 (recent low on April 17), with resistance at $6.89 (April 14 open). ----Implication: Recent declines, driven by tariffs and executive turnover, suggest continued downward pressure, with a break below $6.20 likely to accelerate losses. Technical Indicators Monthly: RSI at 22 (oversold), Stochastic at ~12 (oversold), MFI at ~18 (oversold). Price below 10/20-month SMAs ($8.50/~$9.50, bearish). Implication: Long-term bearish trend with extreme oversold conditions, yet no reversal signal is evident. Weekly: RSI at 27 (oversold), Stochastic at ~17 (oversold), MFI at ~20 (oversold). Price below 10/20-day SMAs ($6.70/~$6.90, bearish). Implication: Bearish trend confirms downside bias for weekly contracts. Daily: RSI at 30 (nearing oversold), Stochastic at ~15 (oversold), MFI at ~22 (oversold). Price below 10/20-day SMAs ($6.40/~$6.50, bearish). Implication: Daily trend supports weekly bearish bias. 4-Hour: RSI at 35 (nearing oversold), Stochastic at ~18 (oversold), MFI at ~28 (nearing oversold). Price below 10/20-period SMAs ($6.30/~$6.40, bearish). Implication: Medium-term bias aligns with weekly outlook. Hourly: RSI at 32 (nearing oversold), Stochastic at ~15 (oversold), MFI at ~25 (oversold). Price below 10/20-hour SMAs ($6.35/~$6.40, bearish). Implication: Intraday bias supports weekly trade direction. 10-Minute: RSI at 38 (neutral), Stochastic at ~20 (oversold), MFI at ~30 (nearing oversold). Price below 10/20-period SMAs ($6.45/~$6.47, bearish). Implication: Short-term bias reinforces weekly contract setup. Options Positioning Overview: Weekly options show high put volume at $6.50 (1,500 contracts, 70% at bid), with a put-call ratio of 2.5 (bearish) and IV skew favoring puts ($6.50: 50%, rising). Monthly options have a put-call ratio of 2.0, with put IV rising ($6.00: 48%). 3-Month options show a put-call ratio of 2.3, with put IV rising ($5.50: 45%). VIX at ~40 (down 5%, above 30-day average of ~35). Option Flow Dynamics (OFD) Analysis: Vanna: Impact: -$0.10 intraday. Insight: Rising put IV at 50% compels dealers to sell shares to hedge delta as IV increases, exerting downward pressure. A VIX of 40 heightens this effect. Stance: Bearish for weekly contracts; neutral if IV falls below 48%. Charm: Impact: Pins price ±$0.05, adds $0.03 volatility. Insight: High put open interest at $6.50 prompts dealers to sell shares to maintain delta neutrality near expiry, pinning the price with minor volatility. Stance: Bearish for weekly contracts; neutral if price holds $6.50. GEX (Gamma Exposure): Impact: Pins price ±$0.10, adds $0.05 volatility. Insight: Negative gamma from elevated put open interest drives dealers to sell shares on price declines, pinning at $6.50 while adding volatility on breakouts. Stance: Bearish below $6.50 for weekly contracts; neutral at $6.50. DEX (Delta Exposure): Impact: $0.20-$0.30/day downward pressure. Insight: High put open interest creates a delta imbalance, compelling dealers to sell shares on price drops, adding consistent downward pressure. Stance: Bearish for weekly contracts, particularly on high volume. OFD Summary: Weekly flows signal a bearish bias, with $0.30-$0.50 downward pressure driven by Vanna and DEX selling. Pivot at $6.50; weekly range $6.20-$6.50 (pinning). A VIX of 40 amplifies downside risk, and a break below $6.20 could trigger $0.15 volatility (GEX). Monthly and 3-month expiries, with put-call ratios of 2.0 and 2.3, provide bearish confluence. Implication: Bearish bias for weekly contracts; elevated VIX suggests downside volatility, with a $6.20-$6.50 range for Monday. ICT/SMT Analysis Overview: Weekly: Bearish, support at $6.20, resistance at $6.89, SMT divergence versus WMT confirms weakness. Daily: Bearish, FVG $6.50-$6.89, OB $5.80. 4-Hour: Bearish, MSS below $6.48, liquidity below $6.20. 1-Hour: Bearish, MSS below $6.48, liquidity below $6.20. 10-Minute: OTE sell zone $6.50-$6.60 (Fib 70.5%), target $6.20. Implication: Bearish across all timeframes; a breakdown below $6.20 is likely, aligning with the weekly contract setup. Edge Insights Dark Pool Activity: Large sell orders at $6.50 in recent dark pool prints (April 18) indicate institutional bearishness, potentially increasing selling pressure if retail traders follow suit on Monday. Sector Dynamics: The consumer discretionary sector is down 17.8% year-to-date (Morningstar); Kohl’s heavy reliance on imported goods amid tariffs makes it more vulnerable than peers like Walmart, which benefits from stronger domestic sourcing. Short Interest Pressure: Short interest at ~45% of float (MarketBeat) raises the risk of a short squeeze if the price breaks above $6.89, though current momentum favors shorts targeting $6.20. Implication: Institutional selling and sector weakness reinforce the bearish bias for weekly puts; remain vigilant for a potential squeeze if the price approaches $6.89. Trade Recommendation Analysis: Bearish: 55% likelihood (negative MSS, OFD flows, tariff pressures). Neutral: 30% likelihood (GEX pinning at $6.50, high VIX choppiness). Bullish: 15% likelihood (oversold indicators, potential bounce above $6.89). Action: Recommend a bearish weekly trade below $6.20, targeting $5.80. Purchase $6.50 puts (weekly expiry) at ~$0.25, aiming for $0.50, with a stop at $0.15 if KSS breaks $6.60. Risk $50 (2.5% of a $2,000 account). Conclusion for Monday: Kohl’s faces a bearish trajectory driven by tariff pressures, negative options flows, and leadership uncertainty. The recommended strategy focuses on a breakdown below $6.20 for weekly bearish trades, targeting $5.80. Elevated VIX and institutional selling add risk—execute with tight stops to manage volatility.
NYSE:KSS
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
META Slow recovery but $900 possible this yearMeta Platforms (META) had a strong -35% correction in the past two months, dipping even below its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). By doing so, it reached the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the 2-year Channel Up and rebounded instantly. The rebound has stopped so far on the 1D MA200 where it got rejected. This keeps the market neutral and the long-term bullish sentiment can only be resumed if the market breaks and closes above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Until then we are neutral but only as long as the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) holds, below it the bearish trend is resumed and the correction can potentially reach -50% to -70%. If however we close above the 1D MA50, expect a +90% rally, similar to the first Bullish Leg of the Channel Up, slow at start but aggressive after half point. Target $900. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:META
by TradingShot
AMAZON is on its 3rd historic +1000% growth Bull Cycle.Amazon (AMZN) almost has been trading within a multi-year Channel Up pattern since the Housing Bubble bottom in November 2008 and this month almost touched its 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). With the exception of the 2008 Housing Crisis and the 2022 Inflation Crisis, which bottomed on the 1M MA100 (green trend-line), the 1M MA50 has never been broken. In fact it has been the key Support of every Bull Cycle that surprisingly has so far peaked on a +1051% rise. As you can actually see by the 1M RSI, such corrections, like the one in the past 3 months, are quite common within the Channel Up and offer excellent long-term buy entries. So, technically the Inflation Crisis bottom (December 2022) on the 1M MA100 has initiated Amazon's 3rd historic Bull Cycle within this pattern and based on the previous two, it may also peak after a +1051% rally inside 2028. Our projected Target on this is $900. Would you miss out on such an opportunity in the past? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by TradingShot
GOOGLE's generational bottom made. This is how it reaches $350.Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) almost tested last week its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). That level has been holding for more than 2 years (since March 13 2023) and it's been the main Support of the Bull Cycle that followed the November 2022 Inflation Crisis bottom. The pattern is almost like the Ascending Triangle that led to the March 2020 COVID crash, which was the most recent time before the late 2022 bottom that the stock made contact with the 1W MA200. As you realize, all those times have been what we call 'generational bottoms', thus extremely good long-term buy opportunities. And as you see they've been on extremely tight time symmetry, all took place roughly every 2.5 years. If the pattern continues to repeat itself, then we may witness a rally (green Channel Up) similar to the one that peaked on November 2021 and reached the 2.618 Fibonacci extension. As a result, setting a $350 Target would be more than realistic based on this pattern. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:GOOGLong
by TradingShot
3
Quantum's PLTR Trading GuideSentiment: Bullish. AI and government contract hype drives enthusiasm, though valuation risks noted. Chatter lean bullish, citing growth momentum. Outlook: Neutral, slightly bearish. Options pin $88, with $85 puts active. ICT/SMT eyes $86-$88 buys to $92 if $86 holds. Bearish below $86 risks $80. Influential News: Federal Reserve: Two 2025 cuts aid growth stocks, positive for $PLTR. Earnings: Q1 due early May; no update today. Chatter: Bullish on AI/contracts, some warn of pullback. Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A): No confirmed NASDAQ:PLTR M&A; partnership expansions rumored. Other: Tariff volatility hit tech; NASDAQ:PLTR resilient. Indicators: Weekly: RSI: ~75 (overbought). Stochastic: ~85 (overbought). MFI: ~80 (overbought). SMAs: 10-day ~$86 (above, bullish), 20-day ~$85 (above, bullish). Interpretation: Overbought, bullish SMAs suggest pullback risk. Daily: RSI: ~72 (overbought). Stochastic: ~80 (overbought). MFI: ~75 (overbought). SMAs: 10-day ~$86 (above, bullish), 20-day ~$85 (above, bullish). Interpretation: Overbought, bullish SMAs but caution warranted. Hourly: RSI: ~70 (neutral). Stochastic: ~75 (overbought). MFI: ~70 (neutral). SMAs: 10-day ~$86 (above, bullish), 20-day ~$85 (above, bullish). Interpretation: Overbought, bullish momentum fading. Price Context: $88.55, 1M: +2%, 1Y: +303%. Range $80-$92, testing $88 resistance. Options Positioning (May 2025): Volume: Calls: $90 (10,000, 60% ask), $95 (8,000, 55% ask). Bullish bets on $90+. Puts: $85 (7,000, 70% bid), $80 (5,000, 65% bid). Put buying grows. Open Interest: Calls: $90 (30,000, +5,000), $95 (20,000, +4,000). Bullish positions. Puts: $85 (18,000, +3,000), $80 (15,000, +2,000). Hedging. Put-call ~0.7. IV Skew: Calls: $90 (45%), $95 (47%, up 3%). $95 IV rise shows upside bets. Puts: $85 (40%, up 2%), $80 (38%). Rising $85 IV signals downside fear. Probability: 60% $80-$92, 20% <$80. Karsan’s Interpretation: Vanna: Positive (~200k shares/1% IV). IV drop could pressure $88. Charm: Positive (~100k shares/day). Pins $88. GEX: +80,000. Caps upside. DEX: +4M shares, bullish. Karsan view: High GEX limits $92+; pullback to $85 likely. ICT/SMT Analysis: Weekly: Bearish at $88 OB, targets $85. Bullish > $92. Daily: Bearish at $88 FVG, targets $85. Bullish > $90. 1-Hour: Bearish < $88, $85 target. MSS at $90. 10-Minute: OTE ($87-$88.50, $87.75) for sells, NY AM. Trade Idea: Bullish: 45%. ICT/SMT buys $86-$88 to $92. Options favor $90 calls. AI hype supports. Neutral: 30%. $80-$92 range, balanced options. Bearish: 25%. Below $85 likely with overbought signals. $85 put volume rises.
NASDAQ:PLTR
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
Quantum's TSLA Trading Guide 4/13/25Sentiment: Neutral. EV and AI optimism persists, but tariff risks and high valuation concern traders. Chatter split—bulls eye robotaxi, bears see pullback. Outlook: Neutral, slightly bearish. Options pin $250, with $240 puts active. ICT/SMT eyes $245-$250 buys to $260 if $245 holds. Bearish below $245 risks $240. Influential News: Federal Reserve: Two 2025 cuts support growth stocks, positive for $TSLA. Earnings: Q1 due late April; no update today. Chatter: Debates tariff impact vs. AI/EV growth. Mergers and Acquisitions: None; focus on internal projects. Other: Tariff volatility hit NASDAQ:TSLA ; stock swung (April 3-9). Indicators: Weekly: RSI: ~50 (neutral). Stochastic: ~45 (neutral). MFI: ~40 (neutral). SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish). Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs signal weakness. Daily: RSI: ~48 (neutral). Stochastic: ~50 (neutral). MFI: ~45 (neutral). SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish). Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs suggest pullback. Hourly: RSI: ~45 (neutral). Stochastic: ~55 (neutral). MFI: ~50 (neutral). SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish). Interpretation: Neutral, stabilizing. Price Context: $252.31, 1M: +1%, 1Y: +38%. Range $240-$270, testing $250 support. Options Positioning (May 2025): Volume: Calls: $260 (15,000, 60% ask), $270 (12,000, 55% ask). Mild bullish bets. Puts: $240 (10,000, 70% bid), $245 (8,000, 65% bid). Put selling supports $245. Open Interest: Calls: $260 (40,000, +7,000), $270 (30,000, +5,000). Bullish interest. Puts: $240 (25,000, flat), $245 (28,000, +4,000). Hedging. Put-call ~1.0. IV Skew: Calls: $260 (40%), $270 (42%, up 3%). $270 IV rise shows upside hope. Puts: $240 (35%, down 2%), $245 (36%). Falling $240 IV supports floor. Probability: 60% $240-$270, 20% <$240. Karsan’s Interpretation: Vanna: Neutral (~300k shares/1% IV). IV drop could pressure $250. Charm: Neutral (~150k shares/day). Pins $250. GEX: +50,000. Stabilizes range. DEX: +7M shares, neutral. Karsan view: GEX holds $240-$270; tariff news key. ICT/SMT Analysis: Weekly: Neutral, $240 support, $270 resistance. No $TSLA/ NYSE:NIO divergence. Daily: Bullish at $250 FVG, targets $260. Bearish < $245. 1-Hour: Bullish >$250, $260 target. MSS at $245. 10-Minute: OTE ($249-$251, $250) for buys, NY AM. Trade Idea: Bullish: 50%. ICT/SMT buys $245-$250 to $260. Options show $260 calls. Fed cuts aid. Neutral: 35%. RSI (~50), SMAs (bearish), $240-$270 range. Bearish: 15%. Below $240 possible with tariffs. $240 put volume grows.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
Quantum's T (AT&T) Trading Guide 4/13/25Sentiment: Neutral. Dividend yield (4-5%) and debt reduction ($123B) attract income seekers, but telecom competition and tariff fears limit enthusiasm. X posts praise stability, though growth concerns persist. Outlook: Neutral, slightly bullish. Options pin $27, with call buying eyeing $28. ICT/SMT supports $26-$26.50 buys to $27.50-$28 if support holds. Bearish risk below $25 low unless earnings falter. Influential News: --Federal Reserve: Rates unchanged, two 2025 cuts expected, easing debt costs. Liquidity boost mildly positive. --Earnings: Q1 due April 23 (EPS $1.97-$2.07 vs. $2.13). Fiber (28.9M locations) and cash flow (>$16B) could lift if beat. --Chatter: X mixed—stability vs. tariff risks. Analyst focus on earnings revisions. --Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A): Talks to acquire Lumen’s fiber unit ($5.5B+), potentially boosting growth but risking debt concerns. --Other: Tariffs caused volatility; RUS:T stable. Broadband expansion adds value. Indicators: --Weekly: ----RSI: ~45 (neutral). ----Stochastic: ~50 (neutral). ----MFI: ~40 (neutral). ----SMAs: 10-day ~$27.10 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$27.30 (below, bearish). ----Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMA signals suggest consolidation. --Daily: ----RSI: ~48 (neutral). ----Stochastic: ~55 (neutral). ----MFI: ~45 (neutral). ----SMAs: 10-day ~$27.10 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$27.30 (below, bearish). ----Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs indicate pullback but recovery possible. --Hourly: ----RSI: ~50 (neutral). ----Stochastic: ~60 (neutral). ----MFI: ~50 (neutral). ----SMAs: 10-day ~$27.10 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$27.30 (below, bearish). ----Interpretation: Neutral, mildly bullish momentum. Price Context: $26.79 (April 11 close), 1M: -6%, 1Y: +59%. Range $25-$29, holding $26 support amid tariff concerns. Options Positioning (May 2025): -Volume: ----Calls: $27 (3,500, 60% ask = buying), $28 (2,500, 55% ask). Bullish bets on $27-$28. ---Puts: $25 (2,000, 70% bid = selling), $26 (1,500, 65% bid). $25 put selling supports $26 floor. -Open Interest: ---Calls: $27 (10,000, +2,000 = buying), $28 (7,000, +1,500). Institutional bullishness. ---Puts: $25 (4,000, flat), $26 (6,000, +1,000). Hedging, not bearish. Put-call ~0.9. -IV Skew: ---Calls: $27 (25%), $28 (27%, up 2%). $28 IV rise shows $28+ speculation. ---Puts: $25 (22%, down 1%), $26 (24%). Falling $25 IV reinforces $26 support. -Probability: 60% $25-$28, 20% >$29. Karsan’s Interpretation: ---Vanna: Neutral (~50k shares/1% IV). Stable IV limits flows; earnings IV spike could push $27.50. ---Charm: Neutral (~20k shares/day). Pins $27. ---GEX: +20,000. Dealers sell $28, buy $26, holding range. ---DEX: +1M shares, neutral. ---Karsan view: GEX pins $26-$28; catalyst needed. ICT/SMT Analysis: --Weekly: Neutral, $25 support, $29 resistance. No $T/ NYSE:VZ divergence (~$43 NYSE:VZ ). --Daily: Bullish at $26 FVG, targets $28. Bearish < $26. --1-Hour: Bullish >$26.50, $27.50 target. MSS at $26.50. --10-Minute: OTE ($26.69-$26.80, $26.73) for buys, NY AM (8:30-11:00 AM). Trade Idea: ---Bullish: 60%. ICT/SMT buys $26-$26.50 to $27.50-$28 (OTE $26.73). Options favor $27-$28 calls. Earnings, M&A, Fed cuts support. ---Neutral: 30%. RSI (~45), SMAs (bearish), $25-$29 range, balanced options (put-call ~0.9). ---Bearish: 10%. Below $25 needs earnings miss. Low $25 put volume.
NYSE:T
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
Quantum's KWEB Trading Guide 4/13/25Analysis: Post-Close Options Activity (April 11): Data: System reports 469.32K contracts traded on April 11, with puts at 10.99% (calls ~89%). High call volume at $31/$32 strikes suggests bullish bets. Interpretation: Call-heavy flow indicates retail/institutional optimism, likely targeting a sweep above $31.35 (weekly high). Potential for a liquidity sweep trapping longs, aligning with ICT/SMT reversal. RSI (14) Level and Trend: Estimate: Daily RSI ~55 (neutral-bullish), based on April 11 close ($30.52, +2.97% from $29.62). Uptrend from April 8 low ($27.95) but below March 17 peak ($38.401) avoids overbought. Interpretation: RSI supports bullish setups (above 50), with room for upside before resistance (~70). A sweep to $31.50 could push RSI higher, signaling OTE retracement. Anonymized X Post Insights (April 11–13): Summary: Posts highlight Chinese tech optimism (e.g., DeepSeek AI, consumer spending), tempered by tariff fears (Trump’s 125% threats). Some speculate on KWEB breaking $31, others note volatility risks. Interpretation: Mixed sentiment leans bullish, with chatter about AI and stimulus driving buy-side interest. Tariff uncertainty suggests potential sell-side sweeps if news escalates. Potential Reversals/Catalysts: Liquidity Sweeps: Call-heavy options and X speculation point to a buy-side sweep above $31.35 (W-High), trapping retail longs before an OTE reversal to $30.00 (HVN). Institutional Positioning: High call OI suggests dealers hedging bullish bets, but tariff risks could trigger smart money to fade retail. Catalysts: Retail Sales (April 15) or tariff relief news could spike KWEB, while escalation could drive sell-side volatility. Why: Sentiment aligns with ICT/SMT, where bullish retail chatter sets up sweeps, and smart money reverses at OTE. Neutral-bullish RSI and call volume support a setup. Action: Log sentiment as neutral-bullish, expect sweep above $31 or drop to $29 on tariff news. Highlight for video: “KWEB’s call-heavy buzz could trap retail—watch for a smart money reversal.” Tariff Impact Assessment: Severe Exposure: KWEB’s holdings (e.g., PDD, JD.com, Tencent) rely on China’s internet economy, with significant supply chain and consumer exposure to U.S.-China trade. Tariffs (e.g., 125% proposed) raise costs for e-commerce and tech exports, hurting revenues. Example: PDD (Temu) faces U.S. import duties, squeezing margins; JD.com’s logistics chain is tariff-sensitive. Current Policy (April 13): Context: Trump’s April 10 statement escalates tariffs to 125% on Chinese goods, with no relief confirmed by April 13. Web reports (Reuters, April 4) note market volatility from tariff fears, impacting KWEB’s April 8 low ($27.95). Impact: Severe, as KWEB’s ETF structure amplifies holdings’ tariff pain (e.g., Alibaba, Tencent ADRs). Sentiment sours on escalation, driving sell-side sweeps. Tariff Relief Potential: Scenario: A 90-day pause or negotiation (rumored on X, inconclusive) could lift KWEB +3–5% ($31.50–$32.00), as seen in past relief rallies (e.g., February 2025, +1.6% on pause news). Fundamentals: Relief boosts consumer spending on KWEB’s holdings, supporting bullish MSS. Without relief, bearish pressure persists. AMT Tie-In: Tariff news creates imbalances (LVN breaks), with price seeking HVNs (e.g., $30.00) post-volatility. Why: Severe tariff exposure makes KWEB sensitive to trade news, fueling sweeps (buy-side on relief, sell-side on escalation), per ICT/SMT. Action: Rate tariff impact severe, monitor April 14 for negotiation updates. Video: “Tariffs could sink KWEB, but relief might spark a sweep to $32—stay sharp.” News/Catalysts Current (April 11, 2025) Closing Price: System Data: KWEB closed at $30.52 (currentPrice), +2.97% from prevDayClose ($29.62). Verification: Matches April 11 high ($30.63), low ($29.41), open ($30.12). Drivers: Positive: Call-heavy options (89% calls) and AI buzz (DeepSeek, X posts) drove the rally. Web reports note Chinese tech resilience despite tariffs. Negative: Tariff fears capped gains, with X posts citing Trump’s 125% threat as a drag. Sector Trends: China ETFs rose (e.g., MCHI +2.1%, April 11), supporting KWEB’s move. Why: Options flow and AI speculation fueled bullish momentum, but tariffs restrained breakout above $31. Action: Highlight $30.52 close, +2.97%, driven by calls and AI. Video: “KWEB jumped 3% on AI hype, but tariffs loom large.” Upcoming (Week of April 14–18) Events: April 15, Retail Sales (8:30 AM): Measures U.S. consumer spending, impacting KWEB’s e-commerce holdings (PDD, JD.com). April 16–18, Tariff Talks: Potential U.S.-China negotiations, per X chatter (inconclusive). Ongoing, China Stimulus: Rumored fiscal measures could lift Chinese tech, no date confirmed. Predictions: Bullish (+3%, ~$31.50): Strong Retail Sales (+0.5% MoM) or stimulus news boosts e-commerce, sweeping buy-side liquidity ($31.35). Bearish (-3%, ~$29.50): Weak Retail Sales (-0.2% MoM) or tariff escalation triggers sell-side sweep ($29.41). Neutral (±1%, $30.20–$30.80): Mixed data or no tariff news keeps KWEB near $30.00 (HVN). Why: Catalysts drive displacement (sweeps to OHLC/LVNs), setting up OTE entries, per AMT/ICT. Action: Set alerts for Retail Sales (April 15), monitor X for tariff updates. Video: “Retail Sales could push KWEB to $32 or drop it to $29—big week ahead.” Technical Setup Multi-Timeframe Analysis (Adjusted to April 11 Close, $30.52) Weekly Chart HVN (High Volume Node): Level: $30.00 (POC, near W-Open $29.59, D-Close $30.52). Role: Support, price consolidated March 24–April 11 ($29–$31). Stance: Bullish (price above HVN, defending $30.00). LVN (Low Volume Node): Level: $31.50 (near W-High $31.35, April 4). Role: Fast-move zone, price dropped post-$31.35 (April 4–8). Stance: Neutral (price below LVN, potential sweep target). EMA Trend: Status: 8-week ($31.50) < 13-week ($32.00) < 48-week ($33.50), downtrend but flattening. Stance: Neutral (price below EMAs, but $30.52 tests 8-week). RSI (14): Level: ~55 (neutral-bullish, up from 45 at $27.95, April 8). Stance: Bullish (>50, room to 70). MACD: Status: Above signal, nearing zero (bullish crossover April 10). Stance: Bullish (gaining momentum). Bollinger Bands: Status: Price at midline ($30.50), bands narrowing. Stance: Neutral (breakout pending). Donchian Channels: Status: Above midline ($29.65, W-Low to W-High). Stance: Bullish (breakout potential). Williams %R: Level: ~-40 (neutral, not overbought). Stance: Bullish (>-50, rising). ADR (Average Daily Range): Status: Expanding (~3%, $0.90/day). Stance: Bullish (volatility supports moves). VWAP: Status: Above VWAP (~$30.20, April 11). Stance: Bullish (buyers control). ICT/SMC: MSS: Bearish (lower highs from $38.401, March 17, but higher low $27.95, April 8, signals potential shift). Trend: Neutral (consolidation $29–$31, testing W-High $31.35). Summary: Neutral-bullish, price at HVN ($30.00) with LVN ($31.50) as sweep target. Indicators favor upside, but MSS needs confirmation. 1-Hour Chart Support/Resistance: Support: $29.41 (D-Low, April 11), aligns with W-Open ($29.59), HVN ($30.00). Resistance: $30.63 (D-High, April 11), near LVN ($31.50), W-High ($31.35). Stance: Bullish (price above support, testing resistance). RSI (14): Level: ~60 (bullish, rising from 50 at $29.41). Stance: Bullish (>50, not overbought). MACD: Status: Above signal, positive histogram. Stance: Bullish (momentum building). Bollinger Bands: Status: Price near upper band ($30.60). Stance: Bullish (breakout potential). Donchian Channels: Status: Above midline ($30.02). Stance: Bullish (trend strength). Williams %R: Level: ~-30 (bullish, not overbought). Stance: Bullish (>-50). VWAP: Status: Above VWAP (~$30.30, intraday April 11). Stance: Bullish (buyers dominate). ICT/SMC: Buy-Side Liquidity: Above $30.63 (D-High), $31.35 (W-High), LVN ($31.50). Retail stops cluster here. Sell-Side Liquidity: Below $29.41 (D-Low), $27.95 (W-Low/M-Low). OB: Bullish OB at $29.80–$30.00 (April 10 consolidation, demand zone, near HVN $30.00). FVG: Bullish FVG at $30.00–$30.20 (April 11 gap, unfilled, aligns with D-Open $30.12). OTE: Fib 61.8%–78.6% from $29.41 (low) to $30.63 (high) = $30.05–$30.15 (overlaps OB/FVG/HVN). Displacement: Potential impulsive move to $31.50 (LVN) or $29.00 (below D-Low) on Retail Sales or tariff news. Summary: Bullish bias, with OTE ($30.05–$30.15) as entry zone post-sweep, supported by OB/FVG/HVN. 10-Minute Chart Closing Move (April 11): Status: Rallied to $30.52, closed near high ($30.63), strong volume. Stance: Bullish (buyers pushed close). EMA Direction: Status: 8-EMA ($30.45) > 13-EMA ($30.40) > 48-EMA ($30.30), uptrend. Stance: Bullish (EMAs rising). RSI (14): Level: ~65 (bullish, cooling from 70). Stance: Bullish (>50, not overbought). MACD: Status: Above zero, bullish crossover. Stance: Bullish (momentum intact). VWAP: Status: Above VWAP (~$30.40, late April 11). Stance: Bullish (buyers control). ICT/SMC: Liquidity Sweep: Wick to $30.63 (8:50 AM, April 11) tested buy-side, no clear rejection yet. Retracement: Potential retrace to $30.05–$30.15 (OTE) if sweep completes (e.g., April 14, 8:00 AM). Entry Signal: Pin bar or engulfing at OTE (e.g., $30.10, 10-minute candle). Summary: Bullish, awaiting sweep above $30.63 or $31.35, retrace to OTE for entry. Options Data Analysis: GEX (Gamma Exposure): Status: Positive GEX at $31 strike (high call OI), neutral at $30. Impact: Dealers buy stock to hedge calls, supporting $31 pin or slight lift to $31.50. Explanation: Positive GEX stabilizes price near high OI strikes, aligning with LVN ($31.50) sweep. Stance: Neutral-bullish (pinning likely, breakout possible). DEX (Delta Exposure): Status: High call delta (+0.3, 89% call volume). Impact: Bullish pressure, as dealers hedge calls by buying KWEB. Explanation: Call-heavy delta fuels upside momentum, supporting buy-side sweep. Stance: Bullish. IV (Implied Volatility): Status: Moderate (~25%, vs. 20–35% norm for KWEB). Impact: Steady swings ($0.50–$1.00/day), good for ATM/OTM calls. Explanation: Moderate IV balances premium cost and volatility, ideal for OTE entries. Stance: Bullish (volatility supports options). OI (Open Interest): Status: Call-heavy (65% calls at $31, 20% at $32, 15% puts at $30). Impact: Momentum toward $31–$32, potential pin at $31 (high OI). Explanation: High call OI marks targets (W-High $31.35, LVN $31.50), puts at $30 guard HVN. Stance: Bullish (calls drive upside). Cem Karsan’s Application and Weekly Trading Breakdown: Gamma: High at $31 (pinning risk), low at $32 (breakout potential). Vanna: Rising IV (25% to 30% on Retail Sales) lifts calls, dealers buy KWEB, pushing to $31.50. Charm: Near OPEX (April 18), $31 calls hold delta if ITM, spiking volatility April 17–18. Volatility Skew: Call skew (higher IV for $32 vs. $30) favors upside breakouts. Weekly OI (Exp. April 18): 65% calls at $31, 20% at $32. Pinning likely at $31 unless Retail Sales sparks breakout to $32. Options Strategy: Trade: Buy $31 calls at OTE ($30.10, April 14, 8:50 AM), premium ~$0.50. Exit: $31.50 (W-High/LVN, premium ~$0.90), profit $0.40. Stop: Below OB ($29.80, premium ~$0.20), risk $0.30. R:R: 1.33:1 (adjust to 2:1 with partial exit). ICT/SMC Tie-In: Enter post-sweep ($31.35), retrace to OTE ($30.10), target $31.50. Vanna: Status: IV rise (25% to 30%) amplifies calls, dealers buy KWEB. Impact: Bullish lift to $31–$31.50, aligns with LVN sweep. Explanation: Vanna boosts delta near high OI, supporting OTE reversal. Charm: Status: OPEX (April 18) nears, $31 calls gain delta if KWEB hits $31. Impact: Volatility spikes April 17–18, favors quick OTE trades. Explanation: Charm accelerates delta, amplifying sweep-to-OTE moves. Timeframe Analysis: Weekly (Exp. April 18): OI: 65% calls ($31), 20% ($32), 15% puts ($30). IV: Moderate (25%), rising on catalysts. Stance: Bullish (calls dominate, breakout risk). Monthly (Exp. May 2): OI: Balanced (50% calls $32, 50% puts $29). IV: Stable (~24%). Stance: Neutral (consolidation likely). 3-Month (Exp. July 7): OI: Call skew ($33–$35, 60% calls). IV: Low (~22%). Stance: Bullish (long-term upside). Directional Bias: Synthesis: Positive GEX ($31 pin), high call DEX (+0.3), moderate IV (25%), call-heavy OI (65% at $31), vanna (IV lift), charm (OPEX volatility), and ICT/SMC (buy-side sweep to $31.35, OTE at $30.10) suggest a bullish trend for April 14, with potential retracement post-sweep. Why: Options data aligns with ICT/SMT (call OI = buy-side liquidity, OTE = dealer hedging zone), per AMT (LVN sweep, HVN reversal). Action: Focus on $31 calls, highlight pinning vs. breakout. Video: “KWEB’s $31 call wall could pin or pop—perfect for an OTE play.” Sympathy Plays Correlated Assets: MCHI (iShares MSCI China ETF): Tracks broader Chinese equities, rises ~2–3% if KWEB rallies (e.g., $31.50), due to shared holdings (Alibaba, Tencent). BABA (Alibaba ADR): KWEB’s top holding, moves +3–4% on KWEB’s sweep to $31.35, driven by e-commerce/AI overlap. Opposite Mover: GLD (SPDR Gold ETF): Risk-off asset, fades ~1–2% if KWEB rallies (risk-on), as investors shift from safe havens to tech. Why: Sympathy plays confirm sector momentum (Chinese tech), while GLD hedges tariff fears, per ICT/SMT sentiment. Action: Monitor MCHI/BABA for confirmation, GLD for divergence. Video: “If KWEB pops, MCHI and BABA follow—watch gold for the flip side.” Sector Positioning with RRG Sector: Technology – Emerging Markets (China Internet). RRG Position: Improving (vs. MCHI ETF). Rationale: KWEB’s April 11 rally (+2.97%) outpaces MCHI (+2.1%), with RSI (~55) and call OI signaling strength. Tariff fears weaken absolute gains, but relative momentum grows. Tie-In: Improving quadrant supports bullish MSS, OTE entries at HVN ($30.00). Why: RRG aligns with sentiment (call-heavy) and technicals (above HVN), per AMT value area. Action: Highlight Improving RRG for video: “KWEB’s gaining steam in China tech—prime for a sweep setup.” Targets Bullish: Target: +3.5% to $31.60. Levels: W-High ($31.35), LVN ($31.50), next resistance ($32.00). Rationale: Buy-side sweep to $31.35 (W-High), breakout to LVN on Retail Sales or tariff relief, per ICT/SMC. Bearish: Target: -3.2% to $29.55. Levels: D-Low ($29.41), below W-Open ($29.59), HVN ($29.50). Rationale: Sell-side sweep below $29.41 on weak Retail Sales or tariff escalation, retracing to HVN, per AMT. Why: Targets tie to OHLC (W-High, D-Low), HVNs/LVNs, and catalysts, ensuring ICT/SMC alignment (liquidity to OTE).
AMEX:KWEB
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
Quantum's T (AT&T) Trading Guide 4/11/25T (AT&T Inc.) Sentiment • Sentiment is neutral with a bearish tilt. April 10 options activity shows put-heavy volume at $26 strikes, reflecting caution. RSI (14) at ~50 (estimated, flat trend at $26.40 close) suggests indecision. X posts highlight concerns over telecom debt loads and tariff risks on equipment imports, but some speculate on institutional accumulation below $26.50. A liquidity sweep below $26.33 could trigger a bullish reversal if buy-side liquidity is tapped. Catalyst: Potential sweep below $26.33 may spark short covering. Tariff Impact - Rating: Moderate. • Explanation: T relies on imported telecom equipment, facing cost pressures from tariffs on China (active as of April 11). No relief announced, so margins could tighten, capping upside. X posts suggest tariff fears weigh on sentiment, but domestic revenue focus limits fundamental damage. News/Catalysts • Driver: Flat telecom sector performance on April 10, with T holding steady amid mixed market signals. X posts cited stability but no clear catalyst. • Upcoming: CPI (April 11): High CPI could hurt T (-1.5%) due to rate hike fears; low CPI may lift it (+1%) as a yield play. • Retail Sales (April 15): Strong data supports T (+1%); weak data pressures (-1%) due to consumer spending risks. Technical Setup Weekly Chart: • HVN: $26.00 support (bullish). • LVN: $27.00 resistance (neutral). • EMA Trend: 8-week ≈ 13-week > 48-week (neutral). • RSI (14): ~50 (neutral). • MACD: Near signal line (neutral). • Bollinger Bands: At midline (neutral). • Donchian Channels: At midline (neutral). • Williams %R: ~-50 (neutral). • ADR: Stable (neutral). • VWAP: At VWAP $26.40 (neutral). • ICT/SMC: No clear MSS; consolidation phase. One-Hour Chart: • Support/Resistance: Support at $26.33; resistance at $26.56. Stance: neutral. • RSI (14): ~50 (neutral). • MACD: Near zero (neutral). • Bollinger Bands: At midline (neutral). • Donchian Channels: At midline (neutral). • Williams %R: ~-50 (neutral). • VWAP: At VWAP $26.50 (neutral). • ICT/SMC: Sell-side liquidity below $26.33; OB at $26.40; FVG at $26.35–$26.45; OTE at $26.45; no displacement. 10-Minute Chart: • Closing Move: Flat into close. • EMA Direction: 8/13/48 EMAs flat (neutral). • RSI (14): ~50 (neutral). • MACD: Near zero (neutral). • VWAP: At VWAP $26.50 (neutral). • ICT/SMC: Potential sweep below $26.33; OTE at $26.45; no clear entry signal yet. Options Data • GEX: Neutral, pinning at $26.50. Dealers hedge minimally. • DEX: Put delta bias (-0.15), bearish pressure. • IV: Low (~18%), limited swings. • OI: Put-heavy (55% puts at $26), capping upside. Cem Karsan’s Application: • Weekly Trading Breakdown: OI at $26 suggests pinning. Low gamma limits volatility; vanna neutral; charm favors puts near OPEX. • Strategy: Buy $26.50 calls at $26.45 (OTE), exit at $27, profit $0.30, risk $0.40. Ties to sweep below $26.33. • Vanna: Stable IV, no dealer-driven lift. • Charm: Puts gain delta near OPEX, pressuring $26. Timeframe Analysis: • Weekly (exp. April 18): Put OI at $26, low IV, bearish stance. • Monthly (exp. May 16): Balanced OI, neutral stance. • 3-Month (exp. July 18): Neutral outlook. • Directional Bias: Neutral, leaning bearish unless sweep triggers reversal. Sympathy Plays • Correlated Assets: VZ (+1%), CCI (+0.5%). • Opposite Mover: If T fades, risk-on SPOT rises (+1%). Sector Positioning with RRG - Sector: Communication Services – Telecom. • RRG Position: Lagging vs. XLC, reflecting weak momentum. Targets • Bullish: +2% to $27.00 (OB). • Bearish: -2% to $25.87 (FVG).
NYSE:T
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
Quantum's KR Trading Guide 4/11/25 KR (Kroger Company) Sentiment • Analysis: Market sentiment for KR is neutral leaning bullish. Post-close options activity on April 10 shows balanced put/call volume, with slight call dominance at strikes near $69, suggesting cautious optimism. RSI (14) at the April 10 close (estimated ~60 based on recent uptrend to $67.96) indicates momentum without overbought conditions, supporting a potential continuation. Anonymized X chatter highlights speculation on grocery sector stability amid tariff uncertainties, with some noting KR’s domestic focus as a hedge against import risks. A potential liquidity sweep above recent highs ($68.76) could signal institutional buying, setting up a reversal to the upside. Catalyst: Watch for a sweep above $68.76 triggering bullish momentum, driven by retail investor interest on X. Tariff Impact - Rating: Minimal. • Explanation: KR’s exposure to tariffs is limited due to its primarily domestic supply chain and focus on U.S.-sourced goods. While imported specialty products could face cost pressures, these are a small fraction of revenue. No tariff relief or escalation was announced on April 10, so sentiment remains stable. Fundamentals are unaffected, but speculative X posts suggest tariff fears could cap upside unless clarity emerges. News/Catalysts • No specific company news on April 10, but sector strength in consumer staples drove modest gains, with KR benefiting from defensive positioning amid broader market volatility. X posts noted KR as a “safe play” in uncertain times. • Upcoming: CPI Data (Today, April 11): Stronger-than-expected CPI could pressure consumer staples (-1% move) as investors rotate to cyclicals; weaker CPI could boost KR (+2%) as a defensive name. • Retail Sales (April 15): Robust data may signal consumer strength, lifting KR (+1.5%); weak data could hurt (-1%) due to spending concerns. Technical Setup Weekly Chart: • HVN: $66.50 as support (bullish, price above). • LVN: $70.00 as resistance (neutral, price below). • EMA Trend: 8-week > 13-week > 48-week (bullish uptrend). • RSI (14): ~62 (bullish, above 50). • MACD: Above signal line (bullish). • Bollinger Bands: Near upper band (bullish). • Donchian Channels: Above midline (bullish). • Williams %R: ~-20 (neutral, not overbought). • ADR: Expanding (bullish, volatility rising). • VWAP: Above weekly VWAP at $67.00 (bullish). • ICT/SMC: Higher highs/lows confirm bullish Market Structure Shift (MSS). One-Hour Chart: • Support/Resistance: Support at $67.50 (weekly HVN confluence); resistance at $68.76 (daily high). Stance: bullish above support. • RSI (14): ~65 (bullish). • MACD: Above signal (bullish). • Bollinger Bands: At upper band (neutral, potential pullback). • Donchian Channels: Above midline (bullish). • Williams %R: ~-15 (neutral). • VWAP: Above hourly VWAP at $68.20 (bullish). • ICT/SMC: Buy-side liquidity above $68.76; Order Block (OB) at $67.50 demand zone; FVG at $68.00–$68.10; OTE (Fib 61.8%) at $68.30; displacement seen in early April 11 rally. 10-Minute Chart: • Closing Move: Strong rally into April 10 close, holding above $67.96. • EMA Direction: 8/13/48 EMAs rising (bullish). • RSI (14): ~60 (neutral). • MACD: Above zero (bullish). • VWAP: Above VWAP at $68.30 (bullish). • ICT/SMC: Liquidity sweep above $68.40 in pre-market; retracement to OTE at $68.30; pin bar forming as entry signal. Options Data • GEX: Neutral, slight bullish pinning at $68. Dealers may buy stock to hedge, supporting price at $68–$69. Explanation: Gamma Exposure balances calls/puts, stabilizing price near strikes. • DEX: Moderate call delta bias (+0.25), indicating bullish pressure. Explanation: Net call buying drives directional momentum. • IV: Moderate (~22%, near norm), suggesting steady swings. Explanation: Implied Volatility supports consistent options pricing. • OI: Call-heavy (60% calls at $69 strike), favoring upside momentum. Explanation: Open Interest at $69 signals potential breakout target. Cem Karsan’s Application: • Weekly Trading Breakdown: High call OI at $69 (exp. April 18) suggests pinning or breakout potential. Gamma supports stability at $68; vanna indicates dealers buy on IV spikes to 23%, lifting price. Charm accelerates delta near OPEX, favoring $69 calls if in-the-money. • Strategy: Buy $69 calls at $68.30 (OTE), exit at $69.50, profit $0.50, risk $0.40. Ties to liquidity sweep above $68.76, targeting $69 OB. • Vanna: Rising IV to 23% could push dealers to buy, lifting KR to $69 (bullish). • Charm: Near OPEX, $69 calls hold delta if ITM, boosting volatility. Timeframe Analysis: • Weekly (exp. April 18): 60% call OI at $69, moderate IV, bullish stance. • Monthly (exp. May 16): Balanced OI, stable IV, neutral stance. • 3-Month (exp. July 18): Slight call skew, low IV, bullish outlook. • Directional Bias: Bullish, driven by call OI, positive GEX, and OTE setup at $68.30. Sympathy Plays • Correlated Assets: WMT (+2% if KR rallies), COST (+1.5%). • Opposite Mover: If KR rallies (defensive), risk-on names like SHOP fade (-1%). Sector Positioning with RRG • Sector: Consumer Staples – Food Retail. • RRG Position: Improving vs. XLP ETF, aligning with bullish sentiment and technicals. Targets • Bullish: +3% to $70.50 (next liquidity zone, OB at $70). • Bearish: -2% to $66.60 (FVG at $66.50).
NYSE:KR
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
MICROSOFT On 4th largest correction in 15 years. Buy or trap?Microsoft (MSFT) has corrected by -26.50% from its All Time High (ATH), representing the 4th biggest correction since June 2010, which was the first pull-ack after the historic 2008 Housing Crisis. At the same time the 1W RSI hit the 30.00 oversold limit for the first time since that low of June 2010! Not even the Housing bottom didn't exhibit such low 1W RSI. All while the current Tariff War correction stopped a little before testing the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the long-term Support since 2011 and was last hit (for the 2nd time during that time span) in December 2022 during the previous Inflation Crisis. As a result, this is a unique long-term buy opportunity for such a tech giant. The 2010 rebound hit the 0.786 Fibonacci level before pulling back while the rally that was initiated after the 2022 Inflation Crisis bottom reached +117.45%. Based on the above, we have a medium-term Target on MSFT at $440 (Fib 0.786) and a long-term at $700 (+100%). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by TradingShot
Quantum's HIMS Trading Guide 4/10/25 HIMS (Hims & Hers Health, Inc.) - Sector: Healthcare (Telehealth) Sentiment: Bullish. Post-close call volume steady, RSI ~58 (up from ~55), Amplified GLP-1 demand—speculation persists despite tariff noise. Tariff Impact: Minimal. Domestic focus shields HIMS; 104% China tariffs irrelevant unless generics supply tightens. News/Catalysts: Current: tariff pause softens market fear. Upcoming: Retail Sales (April 15)—strong data could lift +5%; Fed rate outlook (May 2025)—cut signals might push +7%. Technical Setup: --Weekly Chart: ---HVN $30 (resistance), support ~$25.45. ---Uptrend (8-week EMA > 13-week > 48-week). ---RSI ~58, MACD above signal, ---Bollinger Bands upper band, ---Donchian Channels above midline, ---Williams %R -25. --One-Hour Chart: ---Support $28.50, resistance $29.50. ---RSI ~60, ---MACD above signal, ---Bollinger Bands upper band, ---Donchian Channels above midline, ---Williams %R -20. --10-Minute Chart: ---8/13/48 EMAs up, ---RSI ~62, ---MACD rising. Options Data: --GEX: Bullish—pinning near $29. --DEX: Bullish—call delta dominates. --IV: High—~50–55% vs. norm 45–50%. --OI: Call-heavy—above $29. Timeframe Analysis: ---Weekly: OI call-heavy (70% calls at $30), IV high (55%)—bullish, speculative push. ---Monthly: OI call-leaning (65% calls at $30–$32), IV moderate (50%)—bullish trend. ---3-Month: OI call-heavy (75% calls at $32), IV moderate (45%)—bullish long-term. Directional Bias: ---Bullish. GEX/DEX and call OI signal strong upside; high IV fuels volatility—intraday breakout potential. Sympathy Plays: ---TDOC rises with HIMS; AMWL gains with HIMS. ---Opposite: HIMS rallies → WMT fades. Sector Positioning with RRG: Leading Quadrant (Healthcare vs. XLV)—growth persists. Targets: Bullish +6% ($30.77); Bearish -3% ($28.16).
NYSE:HIMS
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
S&P 500 Index Under Pressure – Another -10% Drop Incoming?Today, I want to analyze the S&P 500 Index ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 ) for you. This index is one of the most important indices in the US stock market , which has been determining the direction of parallel financial markets such as crypto and especially Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) for the past few days, so an analysis of this index can be important for us. The S&P 500 Index started to fall after Donald Trump imposed new tariffs on countries around the world, which was like a coronavirus . The question is whether this fall is temporary or will continue . To answer this question, we need to consider many parameters, but if we look at the sds chart from a technical analysis chart , we can expect a further decline . The S&P 500 Index is moving near the Resistance zone($5,284-$5,095) and is completing a pullback . It also lost its important Uptrend lines last week, which is not good news for the S&P 500 Index and US stocks . From an Elliott wave theory , the S&P 500 IndexS&P looks like it has completed the main wave 4 , and we should expect the next decline(-10%) . I expect the S&P 500 Index to attack the Heavy Support zone($4,820-$4,530) at least once more. The area where we can expect the S&P 500 Index to pull back is the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . What do you think? Will the S&P 500 Index continue its downward trend, or was this decline temporary? Note: If the S&P 500 Index touches $5,408, we can expect further Pumps. Note: There is a possibility of a Bear Trap near the Heavy Support zone($4,820-$4,530) and PRZ. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD),4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by pejman_zwin
26
APPLE Best buy opportunity of the last 6 years.Back in August 02 2024 (see chart below), we introduced this model on Apple Inc. (AAPL) that had high probabilities of success at predicting Cycle peaks: We may have not hit $280 but $260 is close enough especially if you are a long-term investor that values buying low and selling high. Now that the price has corrected by -35% and just hit the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in almost 10 years (since July 2016), it is time to revisit this macro-model once again. As you can see, -35% corrections have been present on every Cycle since the January 2009 bottom of the Housing Crisis. The pattern that the stock follows is very specific and it starts with a prolonged correction, the Bear Cycle essentially, which is a lengthy correction phase, such as the 2008 Housing Crisis, the 2015/16 China slowdown and the 2022 Inflation Crisis. Then a very structured uptrend phase starts in the form of a Channel Up that leads the market to its first peak, followed by a shorter, quicker correction phase that tests the 1M MA50 and rebounds. The rebound is the final bull phase of the Cycle, usually strong and sharp and leads to the eventual Cycle Top and then starts then new Bear Cycle (prolonged correction). Right now the current 4-month correction is technically, based on this model, the new shorter correction. Being more than -35% in size, the last one larger than this was the previous short correction of the last Trade War in October 2018 - January 2019 (-38%). The similarities don't stop here but extend to the 1M RSI as well, which just entered its 25-year mega Buy Zone that has been holding since December 2000 and the Dotcom Crash! In fact the last time Apple's 1M RSI was this low was in June 2013, which was the bottom of the 1st short correction on our chart. This remarkable symmetry just shows how similar the current phase is with its previous ones and if the symmetry continues to hold, we should be expecting a strong recovery to start. Even if the price makes a slightly deeper low as -38% (like the January 2019 bottom), we may still expect the minimum rise that it had all those years shown on the chart, +145%, which translates to a potential $390 Target long-term. It is in times like this, that patient long-term investors filter out the news noise, make their unbiased moves and maximize their profit. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by TradingShot
1
NVIDIA on Bear Market territory. Will the 1W MA100 save the day?NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has officially entered Bear Market territory as it has declined by almost -45% from the January 2025 All Time High (ATH) and just hit its 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since the week of January 30 2023. This is the strongest correction the stock has seen since the 2022 Inflation Crisis and based on the Time Cycle Indicator of the last two Cycle Tops, the week of Jan 06 2025 falls indeed on the third count. This high degree of symmetry isn't only present on the price action but on the 1W RSI sequence itself as the current time range from the RSI High (March 18 2024) to today's Low is fairly consistent (54 weeks, 378 days) with the top-to-bottom range of the previous two Bear Markets, 2022 and 2018 (red Channel Down patterns). So far the current correction looks similar to the September - December 2018 as not only their RSI counts are similar but both are more aggressive and fast than the 2022 Inflation Crisis. The 2018 correction though didn't top on the 1W MA100 but almost reached the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) before making a bottom, but it did so in less than 2 months and declined by -57.40%. The current correction is already running for 3 months. So what remains to be seen is if the 1W MA100 will manage to hold and kick-start a bullish reversal on its own, despite this correction being 'only' -43.39%. The 1W RSI dropped close enough to 30.00 (the oversold limit) though, which has historically been a very reliable indicator for a long-term buy on NVDA. If those work in favor of the 1W MA100 holding, expect to see a strong rebound, that will confirm the new Bull Cycle with a break above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and can technically aim for at least a +1000% rise from the bottom, as both previous Bull Cycles did. If the 1W MA100 fails, we expect a bottom by the end of June 2025 around the 1W MA200 between $65-60. Again a +1000% rise from that level is technically plausible, potentially giving a Target estimate of at least $660. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:NVDA
by TradingShot
2
JetBlue Airways (JBLU) – Technical Analysis 1WJetBlue shares have broken a key weekly trendline, reinforcing a bearish outlook. After breaking support at $5.21, the price is heading toward $4.52 and potentially $3.41. Technical indicators confirm the weakness: RSI shows declining momentum, MACD signals a bearish crossover, and EMA 50/200 indicate sustained selling pressure. Fundamentally, the airline sector faces macroeconomic instability, rising Fed rates, and volatile fuel prices. A close below $5.21 will confirm the downtrend, targeting $4.52 and $3.41, while a recovery above $6.44 could signal a potential rebound.
NASDAQ:JBLUShort
by TotoshkaTrades
Berkshire Hathaway | No More Apple Pie & Bank Bread!No More Apple Pie and Bank Bread | Buffett’s Recipe for Market Caution Berkshire Hathaway has recently disclosed its earnings amid fluctuating around a $1 trillion valuation. A notable update is its continued reduction of stakes in overvalued assets, including a 20% decrease in holdings of Apple and Bank of America, boosting its cash reserves to $325 billion Although Warren Buffett himself isn't favoring share buybacks at present, Berkshire Hathaway stands as a compelling investment option Why Berkshire Hathaway's $325 Billion Cash Pile Signals Market Caution The company's net earnings remain subject to significant fluctuations due to rules requiring valuation changes of investment holdings. However, there was a slight decline in operating earnings, mainly driven by lower insurance underwriting income. Despite this, that segment is historically volatile, and year over year aka YoY, the company has maintained strong performance. Yea2date aka YTD, operating earnings have risen over 10%, totaling just under $33 billion compared to just below $29 billion last year. This points to an annualized earnings estimate of approximately $44 billion, implying a price2earnings aka P/E ratio of about 22, without factoring in over $320 billion in cash and significant investment holdings. Excluding cash and investments, the adjusted P/E ratio is closer to single digits. Share buybacks have paused, reflected in a ~1% decrease in the outstanding shares YoY, signaling Berkshire's assessment of current market valuations. Segment Highlights The various business units within Berkshire Hathaway showcase its robust asset base and earning capacity. Insurance underwriting income saw a sharp YoY drop, but other business areas performed strongly. Income from insurance investments remained solid, and BNSF, its railroad subsidiary, also showed strong results despite a double digit YoY decline. Berkshire Hathaway Energy continues its growth, cementing its position in the utility sector with significant renewable energy ventures. For context, NextEra Energy (NEE), with a market capitalization of $160 billion, posted quarterly earnings around 10% higher. Berkshire's other controlled and non-controlled businesses contribute over $13 billion annually, underpinning its diversification and consistent earnings performance. This strength across segments underscores its formidable financial health. Market Context Currently, market valuations are elevated by historical standards. Excluding periods of earnings dips, market enthusiasm is exceptionally high, with the S&P 500 P/E ratio nearing 30x, approaching levels last seen in 1999. Buffett and Berkshire appear to view a 3% yield from such a P/E as unattractive, especially when bonds offer higher returns. The 2008 Playbook Berkshire's track record of effectively utilizing its cash reserves is notable. Excluding its insurance float, the company still holds $150 billion in cash. During the 2008 financial crisis, Berkshire leveraged its liquidity for strategic investments in companies like General Electric, Swiss Re, Dow Chemical, and Bank of America, as well as finalizing the full acquisition of BNSF in 2010. This proactive use of capital proved advantageous. The current strategic sale of assets suggests Berkshire is preparing for potential market downturns. Given high S&P 500 valuations, reallocating part of an S&P 500 position into Berkshire Hathaway could be wise, ensuring exposure to a cash-rich portfolio capable of seizing future opportunities. Meanwhile, Berkshire’s earnings are valued lower than the broader market, potentially minimizing major downturn risks. Investment Risks A key risk is that timing the market is inherently challenging, with the adage "time in the market beats timing the market" serving as a caution. If Berkshire's market outlook is incorrect, its $300+ billion in cash could underperform while broader markets remain strong, which would diminish its appeal as an investment. Final Thoughts Berkshire Hathaway has taken the bold step of liquidating some of its most significant and priciest holdings, opting to incur capital gains taxes to increase liquidity. This move has bolstered its cash position to $325 billion, $150 billion above its float level. Meanwhile, its strong operational businesses continue generating healthy cash flow. Drawing on its successful strategies during the 2008 crisis, Berkshire appears to be positioning itself for another downturn amid current high market valuations. We advise investors to consider shifting part of their S&P 500 exposure into Berkshire Hathaway for enhanced diversification and potential benefits in a market correction, long story short Berkshire Hathaway remains a robust investment opportunity but wont make millionaire! What do you think moonypto fam?
NYSE:BRK.A
by moonypto