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MPHASIS Surges! TP 2 Hit, Targets in Sight!Technical Analysis: Mphasis has been on a bullish move, as seen on the 15-minute timeframe. After a solid long entry at 3021.90, the price action has been steadily climbing, supported by the Risological Dotted Trendline, which signals continued upward momentum. Key Levels: Entry: 3021.90 Stop Loss (SL): 2993.70 Target 1 (TP1): 3056.75 ✅ (Hit!) Target 2 (TP2): 3113.10 ✅ (Hit!) Target 3 (TP3): 3169.50 Target 4 (TP4): 3204.35 Observations: The price has already reached TP2, confirming the strong bullish momentum. Momentum supported by the Risological Dotted Trendline shows the possibility of further targets being achieved. With TP2 hit and momentum intact, Mphasis is showing strong signs of hitting higher targets. Keep an eye on the next resistance levels at TP3 and TP4 for continued gains!
NSE:MPHASISLong
by ProfitsNinja
ZensarTec Ready to Rally! Waiting for Targets to Fire!Technical Analysis: ZensarTec on the 15-minute timeframe is poised for a long trade after a solid entry signal. The price is currently moving upward, following the support from the Risological Dotted Trendline, confirming the strength in momentum. Key Levels: Entry: 680.00 Stop Loss (SL): 658.20 Target 1 (TP1): 706.90 (Next target) Target 2 (TP2): 750.50 Target 3 (TP3): 794.05 Target 4 (TP4): 821.00 Observations: The price has recently shown signs of strength, bouncing off the Risological Dotted Trendline and gaining bullish momentum. With volume support, the price is likely to hit the initial target of TP1 soon, potentially leading to a cascade of target completions. ZensarTec is gearing up for an upward breakout as it tests its first target. Watch for TP1 to confirm and the possibility of higher targets being hit as bullish momentum builds. Stay tuned for a strong price movement ahead!
NSE:ZENSARTECHLong
by ProfitsNinja
MAZDOCK Short Trade Smashes TP1—More Targets Await!MAZDOCK (15m time frame), Short Trade Entry: ₹4,451.90 Current Price: ₹4,205.85 TP1 Hit, Waiting for Lower Targets Key Levels: Entry: ₹4,451.90 – Positioned after confirmation of bearish trend on the 15m time frame, supported by price moving below the Risological Dotted Trendline. Stop-Loss (SL): ₹4,650.95 – Placed above recent resistance levels to manage risk in case of reversal. Take Profit 1 (TP1): ₹4,205.85 – Already hit, confirming downward momentum. Take Profit 2 (TP2): ₹3,807.75 – Next target, indicating further potential bearish continuation. Take Profit 3 (TP3): ₹3,409.65 – Further downside target as selling pressure builds. Take Profit 4 (TP4): ₹3,163.60 – Final target for extended bearish trend. Trend Analysis: The price has decisively broken below support and maintained its position under the Risological Dotted Trendline, confirming strong selling pressure. After TP1 was hit, the trade shows continuation of bearish momentum, with further targets likely to be reached as the trend develops.
NSE:MAZDOCKShort
by ProfitsNinja
BlueStarCo Soars from 747.95 to 1926: All Targets Reached!BlueStarCo has shown a remarkable bullish run since entering at 747.95 on 6th September 2023. The price has not only reached all take profit targets but also surged far beyond expectations, currently trading at 1926. Key Levels: Entry: 747.95 – This marked the point where the bullish momentum took hold. Stop-Loss (SL): 724.85 – Positioned below the entry to minimize downside risk. Take Profit 1 (TP1): 776.55 – Reached early in the trade, confirming a strong start. Take Profit 2 (TP2): 822.80 – Hit as the upward momentum continued. Take Profit 3 (TP3): 869.10 – Met, indicating strong sustained buying pressure. Take Profit 4 (TP4): 897.65 – Final target hit, followed by a significant price surge beyond all targets. Trend Analysis: The price action has been well-supported by the Risological dotted trendline, confirming a consistent uptrend. The continuous rise from the entry point shows no signs of reversal, with the current price sitting at 1926, nearly doubling the initial entry value. Traders who held on to this trade have seen tremendous returns, and further gains are still possible as the momentum remains strong.
NSE:BLUESTARCOLong
by ProfitsNinja
penny 1. **Rounding Bottoms** 🔵 The stock shows a series of **rounding bottoms** (marked on the chart), indicating a slow but steady shift from bearish to bullish sentiment. This pattern is like a **U-shape** 🏺, where the price slowly bottoms out and starts to rise again. The concept of **higher highs (HH)** ⬆️ rounding bottoms shows that each new bottom forms at a higher level than the previous one, reflecting growing strength in the stock. 2. **Volume Contraction** 📉 **Whenever stock forms a rounding bottom, volume contracts** 🛑. This is visible in the early stages of these rounded formations, where the volume bars shrink. Contraction often hints that **weak hands** are exiting the stock and strong hands are accumulating quietly. 3. **Volume Expansion on Breakout** 📈 As soon as the stock moves up**, you can see the **volume build** as well. This signals a breakout from the rounding bottom pattern as **new buyers** rush in with increasing enthusiasm 🔥. 4. **Multiple Rounding Patterns** 🔄 The stock exhibits multiple rounding patterns, and each is followed by a **rise** ⬆️ in price. This shows the stock moves in cycles, consolidating for some time before **breaking out** again. 5. **Recent Move and Strong Push** 💥 The most recent move in October 2024 is dramatic. The stock surged from around ₹180 to ₹207, a significant gain of about **16.64%** 📊, suggesting bullish momentum is accelerating 🚀. Look at the **volume spike** 🔊 accompanying the price surge—this confirms strong institutional or retail interest in the stock during this period. 6. **Key Takeaway: Patience Pays** ⌛ **Higher highs in rounding bottoms** indicate that the stock is slowly but consistently gaining strength. Though these formations take time to develop, they are often followed by strong upward movements 🏁. Extra tip: When you spot **volume contraction** during a rounded bottom, it could signal a potential **entry point** before a breakout. The expansion in volume later confirms a **strong uptrend**.
NSE:PENINDLong
by investigationofchart
Advanced Micro Devices | AMD Team RED is READY As with any competitor, a quarterly earnings report from a peer can provide great insight into the market. For Advanced Micro Devices, the Q2'23 earnings report from Intel provides great views on the surging demand for AI chips and a rebound in PC demand crucial for AMD The most immediate signal from Intel beating Q2'23 estimates and guiding up for Q3 is the rebound in PC demand. Most importantly, the inventory correction appears over with OEMs no longer digesting chip inventory.Back in Q3'22, AMD shocked the market by cutting PC revenue estimates by $1 billion. The company quickly went from $2 billion in quarterly CPU sales for PCs to less than $1 billion. Intel still reported Q2 Client Computing revenue was down 12% YoY to $6.8 billion, but the number was up $1.0 billion sequentially. The chip giant guided up Q3 revenue to $13.4 billion, up $0.5 billion sequentially.In Q1'23, AMD reported that client revenues had fallen further to only $739 million. AMD CPU revenues are now far over $1 billion per quarter below the peak levels providing substantial upside potential when the PC market normalizes. Intel discussed a mixed picture for their business in the near term due to AI. The chip giant is seeing a wallet share shift from the sever CPU spend towards AI chips.The move is both good and bad for AMD. The company has the MI300 AI GPU chip hitting the market in Q4 providing a strong competitor to the booming demand for the H100 from Nvidia, but the chip isn't out on the market yet. In the near term, AMD may see some suppressed data center demand while heading into 2024. Ultimately, the company should see upside from AI demand for the MI300 along with the Alveo AI accelerator.On the Q2'23 earnings call, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger suggested the AI pipeline for 2024 had surged to $1 billion: In my formal remarks, we said we now have over $1 billion of pipeline, 6x in the last quarter. Going back a few months, Morgan Stanley had estimated the AI potential for AMD was only $400 million with upside potential to $1.2 billion. The Intel forecasts would suggest the AI potential for AMD is far higher next year when the MI300 is in full-scale production. Nvidia guided up current quarter sales estimates by 50% to over $11 billion. The company suggested data center sales would reach $7+ billion in the quarter. AMD has only seen data center sales reach $1.3 billion in quarterly sales leaving a huge gap from Nvidia. Even Intel still hit $4.0 billion in data center sales during Q2'23, though the amount is down nearly 20% form 2022 levels due in part to losing market share to AMD. The big issue for AMD is whether data center sales growth stalls causing a miss to 2H sales targets while booming AI demand ultimately boosts sales starting in Q1'24, or maybe Q4. The chip company peaked at quarterly sales of $6.6 billion back Q2'22 and the current quarterly analyst estimates aren't very aggressive. A rebound in PC demand to more normalized levels places AMD back at the Q4'23 revenue target of $6.5 billion alone. A PC rebound to normal digestion ($2 billion quarterly run rate) along with higher data center or AI demand leads to vastly higher revenues in 2024. The current analysts aren't even factoring in much growth in the Q2'24 revenue estimate of $6.76 billion. The amount is just 4% upside from Q2'22 despite potentially surging demand from AMD entering the AI GPU space. AMD is set to report earrings after the close on August 1. Investors should focus less on the Q2 numbers or even Q3 guidance and focus more on a return to more normalized revenue levels plus the upside from AI.Our view has long held that AMD has the earnings potential of $5 to $6 and the AI opportunity is all upside to this view. The key investor takeaway is that AMD is still $50 below all time highs while Nvidia has soared over $100 above the late 2021 highs. Investors should use the current weakness in AMD to load up on the stock while leaving some capital to buy any weakness following Q2 earnings due to the potential for near term disappointment leading to long term opportunities.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by moonypto
12
Walt Disney Co | DISThe Walt Disney Company is reportedly exploring options to sell or find a joint venture partner for its India digital and TV business, reflecting the company's ongoing strategic evaluation of its operations in the region. The talks are still in the early stages, with no specific buyer or partner identified yet. The outcome and direction of the process remain uncertain. Internally, discussions have commenced within Disney's headquarters in the United States as executives deliberate on the most viable course of action. These deliberations signify the company's willingness to adapt and optimize its business operations to align with changing market dynamics. The Wall Street Journal reported on July 11 that Disney had engaged with at least one bank to explore potential avenues for assisting the growth of its India business while sharing the associated costs. This approach suggests a proactive stance by the company to explore partnerships or arrangements that can drive growth while minimizing financial burdens. While it is too early to ascertain the exact direction this exploration will take, the developments in Disney's India business warrant attention, as they may shape the future landscape of the company's presence in this all-important region. The ongoing shift from traditional TV to streaming has placed Disney and its competitors in a costly and transformative phase. As part of this transition, Disney is actively cutting costs amid macroeconomic challenges that have impacted its advertising revenue and subscriber growth. CEO Bob Iger has been at the forefront of these changes, and his contract was recently extended through 2026 to allow him sufficient time to make transformative changes while strengthening the bench with future leaders of the company. One of the key considerations for Disney is evaluating its portfolio of TV networks, including ABC and ESPN. Bob Iger has expressed a willingness to be expansive in assessing the traditional TV business, leaving open the possibility of selling certain networks while retaining others acknowledging that networks like ABC may not be core to Disney's new business model. ESPN, as a cable TV channel, is being approached differently. Disney is open to exploring strategic partnerships, such as joint ventures or offloading ownership stakes, to navigate the challenges faced by the sports network. CEO Iger, who had previously expressed pessimism about the future of traditional TV, has found the situation to be worse than anticipated since his return to Disney. Although the linear networks segment, which accounts for Disney's TV properties such as ABC, National Geographic, FX, and FreeForm, has struggled to grow in the recent past, this segment is still an important part of the company's business, which is evident from the positive operating income reported by this segment in fiscal 2022. As below data reveals, the DTC business and content licensing made operating losses in FY 2022 which were offset by the operating income reported by linear networks. For this reason, investors will have to closely monitor a potential sale of TV assets to evaluate the impact of such a decision on Disney's profitability. The broadcasting landscape is experiencing a significant shift, with uncertainties surrounding its future and the changing nature of consumer preferences. While linear television channels are not expected to disappear immediately, their consumption continues to decline as viewers increasingly favor OTT platforms. This transition represents a fundamental trend shaping the industry. In terms of business models, subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) services will continue to grow with targeted advertising. As the ascent of streaming video continues, cable, satellite, and internet TV providers in the United States faced their most significant subscriber losses to date in the first quarter of 2023. Analyst estimates indicate a collective shedding of 2.3 million customers during this period. Consequently, the total penetration of pay-TV services in occupied U.S. households, including internet-based services like YouTube TV and Hulu, dropped to its lowest point since 1992, standing at 58.5%, according to Moffett's calculations. In Q1, pay-TV services in the U.S. witnessed a nearly 7% decline in customers compared to the previous year, with cable TV operators experiencing a 9.9% decline, while satellite providers DirecTV and Dish Network registered subscriber losses of 13.4%. Virtual MVPDs, which are multichannel video programming distributors, also suffered significant losses, shedding 264,000 customers during the quarter. Comcast, the largest pay-TV provider in the country, lost 614,000 video customers in Q1, and Google's YouTube TV was the only tracked provider to experience subscriber growth, adding an estimated 300,000 subscribers during the period. These trends illustrate the challenges faced by the pay-TV industry, with factors like increasing sports-broadcast fees driving retail prices higher, leading to cord-cutting and subsequent price adjustments by distributors. By 2026, e-Marketer predicts that the number of non-pay TV households will surpass pay TV households by over 25 million. In efforts to achieve profitability in the streaming business, Disney has implemented significant cost-cutting measures, including saving $5.5 billion through cost reductions and layoffs, and a focus on making Disney+ and Hulu more profitable. Disney aims to enhance Hulu integration, seeing it as a vital component of the company's transition from TV to a streaming-only model. Discussions are also underway for Disney to acquire Comcast Corporation's (CMCSA) stake in Hulu, as Disney currently holds 66% ownership. The company believes that the integration of Hulu and Disney+ will bolster the streaming business and contribute to its profitability. While the negotiations with Comcast over Hulu's valuation are ongoing, the combined offering of Disney+ and Hulu is expected to be available to consumers by the end of the calendar year. Although Disney's plans for ESPN+ and the fate of its other cable channels, such as the Disney Channel, remain uncertain, Bob Iger expects ESPN to eventually move to a streaming-only model, acknowledging the disruptive nature of the traditional TV business model. The discussions surrounding Walt Disney's TV and streaming business in India come at a critical juncture for the company, as it grapples with intensified competition and significant challenges in the market. The emergence of Reliance Industries' JioCinema streaming platform has posed a considerable threat to Disney's dominance, especially after Reliance secured digital rights for the highly popular Indian Premier League cricket tournament. This strategic move by Reliance, which offered free access to the tournament earlier this year, caused a substantial decline in Disney+ Hotstar's subscribers, a popular streaming service under Disney's India business. Additionally, Viacom18, which is backed by Reliance and Paramount Global (PARA), made a significant impact on Disney's market position in India. Through its partnership with Warner Bros, Viacom18 secured content rights to popular shows on HBO including Succession, previously aired on Disney's platform. This collaboration forms a formidable alliance challenging Disney's dominance in the Indian market. Reliance's freemium model poses the most significant threat to Disney's current position. By offering content for free on its streaming platform, JioCinema attracted a substantial number of subscribers through the broadcast of IPL. With its ample cash reserves, Reliance has the advantage of focusing on subscriber growth without immediately focusing on monetization strategies. The loss of streaming rights for the IPL, combined with a subsequent decline in paid subscribers, had a profound impact on Disney's reputation in India in the first quarter of this year, which could very well be the most challenging Q1 Disney has had in India for a long time. A report on video consumption trends in India by Media Partners Asia sheds light on the dynamic landscape of the online video sector in India. For the 15 months that ended in March 2023, total consumption across the online video sector reached a staggering 6.1 trillion minutes. During this period, Disney+ Hotstar emerged as the dominant player in premium VOD, capturing 38% of viewing time. The report attributes Hotstar's success to its strong sports offerings and the depth of its Hindi and regional entertainment content. During the survey period, Zee and Sony together held a 13% share of the Indian premium video sector viewing time. While the two companies are expected to merge pending regulatory approval, they are projected to operate independently for another year, benefiting from strong engagement across sports as well as regional, local, and international content. Prime Video and Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) collectively accounted for a 10% share of viewership in the premium VOD category. Prime Video also garnered a significant portion of viewership from regional Indian titles. The report emphasizes that local content dominates premium VOD viewership, particularly outside the sports category, while international content leads paid tiers. Catch-up TV is prevalent in the free tier across freemium streaming platforms. Although Disney was the clear winner in 2022, this report highlights a significant shake-up in the market brought about by the transformation of JioCinema. JioCinema, which previously held a mere 2% share of the premium video market, experienced a major upswing in growth since April. This surge can be attributed to JioCinema's decision to offer free live streaming of the popular IPL cricket tournament, a property that was previously exclusive to Disney-owned media in India. Despite technical glitches impacting user experience, JioCinema witnessed a more than 20-fold increase in consumption in April 2023, enabling it to dominate the premium VOD category. The report raises questions about JioCinema's ability to sustain this growth and scale in the absence of IPL action after June 2023. That being said, this could be an early indication of growth challenges Disney-owned brands may face in India. Star India, now known as Disney Star following the rebranding last year, is expected to experience a revenue drop of around 20% to less than $2 billion for the fiscal year ending September 2023. Additionally, EBITDA is projected to decline by approximately 50% compared to the previous year. Furthermore, Hotstar is estimated to lose 8 to 10 million subscribers in its fiscal third quarter as well. Given the current scenario, finding an outright buyer for Disney's India business is expected to be challenging. When Disney acquired the entertainment assets of 21st Century Fox in 2019, the enterprise value of the Indian business was estimated at around $15-16 billion. This high valuation, coupled with the intense competition and declining subscriber base, presents a complex landscape for potential buyers or partners. I believe Disney stock is attractively valued today given that the company's streaming business has a long runway for growth internationally while its brand assets will continue to drive revenue higher. As an investor, I am both concerned and curious about what the future holds for Disney's linear networks segment. Going by the recent remarks of CEO Iger, major changes are on their way. A strategic decision to divest non-core assets, in my opinion, will trigger a positive response from the market. That being said, a major divestment of TV assets could materially impact the company's profitability in the next 3-5 years until its streaming business scales enough to replace lost revenue from the linear networks segment. Investors will have to closely monitor new developments to identify a potential inflection point in Disney's story.
NYSE:DIS
by moonypto
4
WIPRO LONG Trade Hits First Target! Bullish Momentum BuildsWipro has shown a strong bullish movement, reaching Take Profit 1 (TP1) at 550.85 on 14th October at 12:45 PM. Key Levels Entry : 540.80 – Wipro started its upward movement from this key support level, leading to a breakout. Stop-Loss (SL) : 532.65 – This level is positioned below the entry to protect against any potential downside risk. Take Profit 1 (TP1) : 550.85 – Already achieved, confirming the strength of the uptrend. Take Profit 2 (TP2) : 567.10 – The next target to watch as bullish momentum continues. Take Profit 3 (TP3) : 583.35 – If buying pressure persists, this level could be tested next. Take Profit 4 (TP4) : 593.40 – The ultimate target signaling the potential for a strong bullish rally. Trend Analysis The price is clearly above the support of the Risological dotted trendline, indicating a strong uptrend. The sharp upward movement followed by a small consolidation suggests the possibility of further gains. With TP1 reached, the next targets are in focus, and a move above 550.85 will likely lead to TP2 being hit. Wipro has reached its first profit target at 550.85, confirming bullish momentum. The next targets at 567.10 and beyond could be reached if the uptrend holds, with solid support from the Risological trendline and strong buying interest.
NSE:WIPROLong
by ProfitsNinja
Muthoot Finance Long Trade on 15m Time Frame: Trade in ProgressA long entry was initiated at 1927.05 on the 9th of October at 10:15 am. The price is nearing Target 1 (1963.50) and remains on track for further movement towards the upper targets. We have now set a trailing stop at 1928.50 to lock in gains and manage risk. Target Points: TP 1: 1963.50 (close to being hit) TP 2: 2022.50 TP 3: 2081.50 TP 4: 2117.95 Trailing Stop: 1928.50 Stop Loss (SL): 1897.55 We'll keep a close eye on this position as it progresses towards the remaining targets.
NSE:MUTHOOTFINLong
by ProfitsNinja
BDL Short-Term Long Trade on 15m Time Frame: TP4 ReachedWe initiated a short-term long trade setup in Bharat Dynamics LTD (BDL) on the 8th of October at 9:45 am, entering at 1114.45 based on the bullish signal from the Risological Swing Trader. The price action was strong, and we successfully reached TP4 (1225.90) by the 11th of October at 9:15 am. Target Points Achieved: TP 1: 1135.70 TP 2: 1170.15 TP 3: 1204.60 TP 4: 1225.90 Stop Loss (SL): 1097.20 This trade exemplifies the power of the Risological Swing Trader in identifying profitable setups and executing with precision. We’ll continue leveraging this strategy for future market moves.
NSE:BDLLong
by ProfitsNinja
Motorola Solutions May Rise to 475.00-480.00 (READ DESCRIPTION)Motorola Solutions May Rise to 475.00 - 480.00 Pivot Point: 446 The pivot point at 446 serves as a significant support level. Maintaining above this level indicates a bullish outlook, suggesting potential for upward movement. A breach below this level could signal a change in market sentiment, leading to bearish pressure. Primary Strategy (Our Preference): Entry Point: Seek long positions as long as the price stays above the pivot point of 446. Target Levels: 475.00: This target represents a substantial upward movement, reflecting confidence in the stock's potential to capitalize on bullish momentum. 480.00: A further target that reinforces the positive outlook, suggesting a continuation of upward price movement. Alternative Scenario: If the stock drops below the pivot point at 446, traders should consider short positions. Entry Point: Initiate short positions if the price breaks and sustains below 446. Target Levels: 437.00: The first downside target, indicating a level where buying interest might emerge, but selling pressure could continue if bearish momentum strengthens. 432.00: The next target suggests further declines, reflecting a potential bearish trend if the stock continues downward. Technical Outlook: RSI Indicator: The RSI is above 70, indicating that the stock may be in a strong uptrend but also suggesting it could be overbought. This could lead to a potential correction if bearish divergence is observed. MACD Indicator: The MACD is positive and below its signal line, indicating that while the current trend remains bullish, there may be a short-term retracement or consolidation in price. Moving Averages: The stock is trading above both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages (respectively at 445.72 and 431.28), confirming the bullish trend and reinforcing the potential for upward movement. Market Dynamics: As long as Motorola Solutions holds above the pivot point of 446, the potential for price increases toward targets of 475.00 and 480.00 remains robust. However, if the price falls below the pivot, market sentiment could shift, leading to potential declines toward support levels of 437.00 and 432.00. The pivot point at 446 is critical for maintaining a bullish outlook for Motorola Solutions. Holding above this level opens possibilities for upward movement toward 475.00 and 480.00. Current technical indicators support a bullish sentiment, but traders should monitor for signs of potential retracement, especially if the price breaches the pivot support.
NYSE:MSI
by CharivapaAlgo
Palantir Technologies | PLTRPalantir stock is set to pop in the next year as the tech firm erects an artificial intelligence "fortress" that will help it become one of the biggest players in the AI race in the coming decade, Wedbush Securities analysts wrote on Friday. According to Wedbush's Dan Ives, Palantir is headed to $25 a share in the next 12 months. That represents a surge of 54% from Thursday's closing price of $16.15. Shares were up 5.7% at $17.07 early Friday. The data software firm, which has been funded in part by the CIA's In-Q-Tel venture capital arm, is the "Messi" of AI, Ives said, referring to Argentine soccer superstar Lionel Messi. "As we begin the 4th Industrial Revolution, Palantir is engaging in the widespread trend of various industries leveraging recent generative AI innovations to streamline operations and improve expense profiles," the Wedbush analysts wrote. Given Palantir's wide roster of partners in both the public and private spheres, Wedbush sees the next six to 12 months as a period of significant expansion for the company as it serves the growing demand for enterprise-scale large language AI models. "This is early innings on a sum-of-the-parts AI story just on the cusp on monetizing this massive green field AI opportunity," it predicted. Palantir CEO Alex Karp has been a vocal proponent of the rapid development of AI even in the face of risks associated with the technology. In an op-ed for the New York Times this week, he wrote that AI will shape political developments in this century in the same way that nuclear weapons drove geopolitics in the last century. He cautioned that there are risks, but they should not deter the continued advancement of AI. "If these technologies are to exist alongside us over the long term, it will also be essential to rapidly construct systems that allow more seamless collaboration between human operators and their algorithmic counterparts, to ensure that the machine remains subordinate to its creator," he wrote. "We must not, however, shy away from building sharp tools for fear they may be turned against us." Palantir is one of the most popular stocks, and for many, it's been a wild ride. Since the direct listing, investors have seen shares skyrocket to the high FWB:30S , crash to $5.84, and ride the AI boom back to the high teens. I invested in PLTR at the direct listing and purchased shares on the way up and as they declined in price. I was vocal about my dissatisfaction with how Alex Karp handled what has now become the infamous Q2 2022 conference call and became bullish again as PLTR turned things around. 2023 has been a strong year for PLTR as shares have increased by 182.47% YTD. Some investors have done well, while others got back to even or chipped away at the losses. Since May 5, shares have appreciated by 143.59%, appreciating from $7.41 to $18.05. Q2 2023 earnings are around the corner as PLTR is set to report post-market on August 7. Shares can continue higher into earnings and continue throughout 2023 if PLTR delivers growth across its revenue, earnings, customers, and contracts while maintaining its Q2 free cash flow (FCF) margins. In this article, I will discuss what I am looking for in the Q2 2023 earnings report and provide some insights as to what I think shares of PLTR could be worth in the future. In 2021, PLTR made 45 official announcements through its website newsroom, and in 2022, PLTR had 44 announcements. PLTR has been busy in 2023; through July 18, they have made 26 official announcements. This doesn't include any of the blog posts PLTR has written discussing the work their conducting. I continuously research these aspects as they provide insight into what will be discussed on the earnings call and in the 10-Q. In Q2 2023, PLTR posted 14 press releases and another four in July. For PLTR to continue its growth trajectory, it needs more adaptation of its products in the government space as well as the private sector. I expect PLTR to deliver strong growth numbers as there have been significant partnerships announced since April 1. On the government side, Palantir announced two deals with government entities in Ukraine, including the Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine and the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine. PLTR announced that Ukraine would utilize its technology to support the defense and reconstruction of the country and empower Ukraine investigators with critical data processing tools regarding 78,000 registered war crimes. US Special Operations Command entered a multi-year contract worth up to $463 million to expand its enterprise capabilities. On the commercial side, PLTR expanded its cloud partnership with Microsoft (MSFT), entered into an agreement to build an integrated management flow system on top of Foundry for CA Modas S.A, and expanded its partnership with Jacobs Solutions (J). These partnerships are critical because it will allow PLTR to expand throughout several sectors through some of the largest counterparts. I expect the Jacobs and Microsoft partnerships to be extremely beneficial in the coming years as more companies look to create value by enabling AI and moving toward data-driven decisions. PLTR guided for revenue to come in at $528-$532 million in Q2 and revenue of $2.185-$2.235 billion for the full year. In Q1, PLTR delivered $525.2 million in revenue which is 24.04% of the low-end estimates and 23.5% of the high-end estimates for 2023. For PLTR to meet its 2023 full-year revenue guidance, it would need to generate an average of $553.27 million in Q2–Q4 to meet the low-end projection and an average of $569.94 to meet the high-end estimates. I expect PLTR to deliver at least $550 million in revenue for Q2 and discuss how they will increase incremental revenue throughout the year as more contracts continue to be initiated on an ongoing basis. If we see anywhere from $550-$575 million in revenue for Q2, it would be a strong indication that the high-end estimates will be met or exceeded when they report their 2023 fiscal year numbers. If PLTR records $550 million in Q2, $575 million in Q3, and $601 million in Q4, PLTR will generate $2.25 billion in annual revenue for 2023. This would be an average QoQ revenue increase of 4.6% over the next three quarters. I think it will be a strong signal coming off the AIP conference if PLTR is on track to beat the high-end estimates, as that would mean PLTR will be moving into the $600 million quarterly revenue bracket sometime in 2023 and inching their way closer to generating over $1 billion in revenue on a quarterly basis. PLTR has now strung together two consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability and is projecting its adjusted income from operations coming in at $118-$122 million in 2023 and between $506-$556 million for their fiscal year. In Q1 2023, PLTR generated $125.11 million in adjusted income from operations, which is 24.73% of the low-end projection and 22.50% of the high-end estimate. This would mean that PLTR would need to increase its adjusted income throughout the year to meet its annualized projections. I dislike adjusted numbers and prefer free cash flow (FCF) as it's harder to distort than other profitability measures. In Q1, PLTR generated $188.9 million in adjusted FCF, which is a 36% margin. PLTR's true FCF number was $182.6 million, as they generated $187.4 million in cash from operations and allocated $4.8 million toward CapEx. This places PLTR's FCF margin at 34.77%, which is the largest margin they have operated at since becoming a publicly traded company. I have previously indicated that I believe PLTR can replicate similar growth to Salesforce (CRM). CRM currently has a market cap of $223.51 billion and, in the TTM, has generated $32.19 billion of revenue and $7.06 billion in FCF. Mr. Market is valuing CRM at a 6.94x multiple on sales, and 31.64x FCF. CRM has seen explosive growth over the last decade as its grown its revenue by 690.67% and its FCF by 1,125.54%. Including the TTM, CRM has operated at a 20.57% FCF margin over the previous five years.If PLTR finishes on the high-end of their revenue estimates for 2023 they would deliver $2.25 billion in revenue. PLTR's previous projections placed their 2025 revenue at $4 billion or more and I don't recall seeing updated estimates. If PLTR comes in on the high end of the 2023 projections and generates $2.25 billion, its YoY revenue growth would have decelerated from 41.11% in 2021 to 23.61% in 2022 and 18.12% in 2023. Hypothetically, if PLTR can grow its revenue at a 15% YoY basis over the next decade from 2024–2033, it would generate $2.98 billion in revenue for 2025 and $9.12 billion in 2033. At a 33% FCF margin in 2033, PLTR would generate $3 billion in FCF. At a 32x multiple on FCF, PLTR would be valued at $96.17 billion. If PLTR can maintain an 18% YoY revenue growth rate and maintain a 33% FCF margin, PLTR will generate $11.78 billion in revenue and $3.89 billion in FCF in 2033. At a 32x FCF multiple, PLTR would be valued at $124.42 billion. If PLTR was to grow at a quicker pace of 21% YoY on average, they would generate $15.15 billion in revenue and $5 billion in FCF in 2033. Assigning a 32x multiple on their FCF would place PLTR at a $159.93 billion valuation. Based on these assumptions, PLTR could grow between 151.49%-318.23% over the next decade, which would be an annualized return of 15.15%-31.82%. These are just assumptions regarding what could occur and why I feel PLTR could be a good long-term investment. For those who think a 32x multiple on FCF is a crazy valuation, I am going to place a table below. Based on the current market caps, big tech has multiples from 31.29x to 221.31x. Putting the outliers aside, it's not uncommon to see companies trade in the 40x range. Even companies such as the Coca-Cola Company (KO) trade at a 29.90x multiple and PepsiCo (PEP) trade at a 45.41x multiple on FCF.
PLong
by moonypto
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