AMD: Final shot to rise in this Channel. $290 if successful.Advanced Micro Devices are bearish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 38.717, MACD = -4.560, ADX = 33.691) but just under neutrality on the 1W technical outlook (RSI = 43.494, MACD = -3.840, ADX = 18.724). This indicates that this is the final support long term to reverse the medium term bearish sentiment and this is quite evident on this chart where the price is at the bottom of the 2 year Channel Up.
Roughly every November inside this Channel (2022, 2023 and 2024), it is on a corrective wave (or has been the month before), so the symmetric structure on this pattern is very strong. Another reason to see a massive bullish wave next. The previous two peaked approximately 160 days after that low, completing a +141.24% rally from the HL. Consequently, we are aiming for a similar rally (TP = 290.00) by late April 2025.
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Stocktrading
GER40 - Our View for the Next 5 Years ( Weekly) Hello Folks
This is my personal roadmap for tracking GER40 over the next five years, revisiting it month by month to see how things evolve.
Right now, I’m expecting a short-term pullback, but only for a brief period. If the market hits 20K early, it might need to take a breather before aligning with the right cycle timing. However, my focus remains clear: I’m only looking for long opportunities in the bigger picture.
The larger structure is bullish, and any short-term corrections are just part of the process before the next major move upward. It’s all about timing and staying patient as the market reveals its hand.
Let’s see how this plays out in the months ahead
CD Projekt | CDR & Phantom Libertywhat a nice long and what a great day, hows tradin so far Chooms?
cyberpunk dlc phantom liberty coming on September 26th 2023 and cant wait to play this gem
as usual CDPR going to sell million of copies and making hundreds millions of dollar so for me CDR still is safe and good place to printing more money. 2023 is a great year to buy the dips and enjoying 2024 after that
MEDPLUS Soars!MEDPLUS Trade Details:
This trade setup on the 15-minute timeframe demonstrated a robust bullish trend with clean signals provided by the Risological Trading Indicator , resulting in all targets being achieved.
Key Levels:
Entry: 687.90
Stop Loss (SL): 683.95
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 692.75
TP2: 700.65
TP3: 708.55
TP4: 713.40
Performance Analysis:
The steady uptrend, aligned with the dynamic moving averages, validated the long trade setup. Each profit target was systematically breached, emphasizing the accuracy of the entry and exit strategy.
Trade Outcome:
This trade proved to be a stellar performer, with all targets hit in quick succession, delivering exceptional results for intraday traders.
Maximize your trades with the Risological Indicator – precision, clarity, and profits!
NTDOY | NINTENDO & Nintendo Switch 2 🍄The next Nintendo console might arrive in 2024
Nintendo has reportedly demonstrated the Nintendo Switch 2 behind closed doors at Gamescom last month.some trusted developers got an early look at the Switch 2 and some tech demos of how games run on the unannounced system.
There was reportedly a demo of an improved version of Zelda: Breath of the Wild that’s designed to run on the more advanced hardware inside the Nintendo Switch 2, VGC corroborated the claims and revealed that Nintendo also showcased Epic Games’ The Matrix Awakens Unreal Engine 5 tech demo running on the type of hardware Nintendo is targeting for its next console. The demo reportedly used Nvidia’s DLSS upscaling technology with ray tracing enabled, suggesting Nintendo and Nvidia are working on a significant chip upgrade for this next-gen console. in July that a new Nintendo Switch is being planned for a 2024 release.
With 43 years of making immensely popular video games under its belt, you'd think that the video game pioneers at Nintendo probably have the business of success fully figured out.
But companies must change with the times and, according to Nintendo of America president Doug Bowser, that means finding a way to engage people with the legacy brand that might never pick up a video game controller.
Bowser spoke about what the company learned this year during the Nintendo Live event in Seattle, Wa. on Sept 1, referencing the enormous box office success of the "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" as one of its key indicators that Nintendo has the ability to reach an audience beyond those that naturally reach for a controller.
"We launched The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which very quickly became the second-largest box office grossing animated film of all time at $1.3 billion," Bowser said. "We launched The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, which, 18 million units later after a very brief period of time, it's one of our fastest launch titles ever, and then the event today. So it's really this drumbeat of activities, entertainment-based activities where we're trying to find ways to continue to introduce more and more people, not just players, but people to Nintendo IP… So that's what we're excited about."
Bowser also spoke about the launch of Super Nintendo World at Universal Hollywood, which delivered an impressive 25% bump to Comcast's Q1 earnings this year.
"And if I think about folding into the bigger strategy, this year has really been a very unique, and I dare say banner year for Nintendo in a lot of ways," Bowser said.Nintendo also continues to benefit from the sales of its aging Nintendo Switch console, with 129.53 million units sold worldwide. That makes it the company's second best-selling console of all time, right behind the handheld Nintendo DS, which sold 154.2 million units before it was discontinued in 2014.
The success of "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" drove rumors that another big feature film based on Nintendo's flagship Legend of Zelda series was coming as well, but Nintendo hasn't made a formal announcement about that ... yet.
Gaming is in the midst of an M&A arms race. The protracted pandemic has made sure of that. Companies from all sides of the market, Microsoft, Take Two, Sony to name a few, are cutting deals to secure content. The volume and scale of those deals point to where gaming is heading - the precipice of major shake-ups across its core commercial and distribution models. Microsoft's eye bulging $69 billion deal for Activision is a testament to that shift. Costly as the deal is, it's arguably a small price to pay to secure some of the biggest franchises in gaming: Call of Duty, Warcraft, Candy Crush and Overwatch. Even more so, considering those titles span a community of 400 million active monthly players. In other words, the deal is the boldest sign yet that content is the future of gaming, not consoles.
Should you invest in Nintendo?
The question comes down to whether you are willing to pay about SGX:40B for Nintendo's IP and potential earnings powers. To me, a company that continues to produce in-demand and profitable content is worth that price tag, especially after having generated a net profit of 432.7B yen, or $2.97B in FY2023. That's a P/E of about 13.5 after subtracting out Nintendo's current assets - not a hefty sum given everything Nintendo has going for it. Nintendo's strategy seems to be working, with The Super Mario Bros. Movie not only performing well on its own but also providing a boost to other Nintendo offerings. While there are concerns, there are also plenty of catalysts moving ahead. I am excited to see new Nintendo initiatives including more theatrical releases of their IP and their (positive) effects on the rest of the company's products.
C3.AI: Waiting for this huge buy breakout signal.C3.ai is on a neutral technical outlook both on the 1D and 1W timeframes (RSI = 51.525, MACD = -0.010, ADX = 22.326) as it is trading around the 1W MA50 for 5 straight weeks. This sideways price action is approaching the top of the June 2023 Channel Down, which on the greater scale technically looks like a giant Bull Flag. For the first time in its history, the 1W MA200 is at 33.00 and falling. A test of the top of the Channel Down may coincide with a 1W MA200. This is the level that separates the long term bearish from bullish trends. If it breaks we will go long and target the R1 level (TP = 49.00).
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Tempus AI (TEM) Investment Analysis Company Overview: Tempus AI NASDAQ:TEM specializes in AI-driven healthcare solutions, focusing on improving patient outcomes and accelerating medical research. By leveraging extensive datasets and advanced analytics, Tempus provides innovative precision medicine solutions, solidifying its position in the growing AI healthcare sector.
Key Growth Drivers:
Strategic Acquisition of Ambry Genetics:
Tempus AI's acquisition of Ambry Genetics significantly enhances its capabilities in genetic testing. This deal, completed at favorable multiples of 1.9x revenue and 15x EBITDA, demonstrates strategic financial discipline.
The integration of Ambry Genetics is expected to boost Tempus's market presence, expanding its offerings in diagnostics and genetic analysis, and driving revenue growth.
Multi-Year Partnership with BioNTech:
A new multi-year partnership with BioNTech is a major validation of Tempus AI's expertise in precision medicine. This collaboration will focus on leveraging Tempus's vast datasets and computational biology tools to enhance BioNTech's research and development in personalized treatments.
The partnership could lead to significant advancements in oncology and other therapeutic areas, potentially resulting in considerable revenue gains from breakthrough discoveries and innovative treatment options.
Competitive Edge in AI-Enabled Precision Medicine:
Tempus AI's proprietary operating system and robust data library provide a competitive edge in the precision medicine market. The company's AI-driven platform allows for rapid analysis of complex datasets, aiding in the identification of personalized treatment options for patients.
This competitive advantage positions Tempus to capture a larger market share as demand for AI-enabled healthcare solutions continues to grow.
Technical Analysis and Investment Outlook:
Current Price Level: We are bullish on Tempus AI (TEM) above the $43.00-$44.00 range. This level reflects investor optimism, particularly following recent strategic initiatives like the Ambry Genetics acquisition and the BioNTech partnership.
Upside Potential: Our upside target for TEM is $85.00-$90.00, driven by expected revenue growth from new collaborations and enhanced genetic testing capabilities.
Catalysts to Watch: Updates on the integration progress of Ambry Genetics, along with developments from the BioNTech partnership, are key catalysts to monitor. These could significantly impact Tempus's revenue trajectory and investor sentiment.
🔍 Tempus AI—Revolutionizing Healthcare with Precision Medicine! #PrecisionMedicine #HealthcareAI #GeneticTesting #BioNTechPartnership
ASI - All time high in 2025 Q1?1. Observations on Fibonacci Levels
Current Resistance at 0.786 Fib Level (~12,123):
The index has successfully moved past several key Fibonacci retracement levels and is now approaching the 0.786 level.
A confirmed breakout above this level, with a daily/weekly candle close, would further strengthen the bullish momentum.
Golden Pocket (~10,969 - 11,189):
The golden pocket zone (0.618) previously acted as strong resistance, but it has now turned into a support zone, affirming the current uptrend.
Target: 1.618 Extension (~17,837):
The 1.618 Fibonacci extension level at 17,837 is a likely target if the index maintains its bullish momentum throughout 2025.
This projection aligns with a potential all-time high under strong market conditions.
2. Channel Observation
The ASI is trading within a clear upward parallel channel, with higher highs and higher lows forming a solid bullish structure.
The upper bound of this channel aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, further strengthening the case for 17,837 as a medium- to long-term target.
3. Indicators
RSI:
The RSI is nearing overbought levels, suggesting that the index might face short-term resistance or a pullback before continuing its upward trajectory.
MACD:
The MACD is showing bullish momentum, with a positive crossover and rising histogram bars. This supports the upward trend.
4. Key Levels to Watch
Support Levels:
12,123 (0.786 Fib): Needs to hold as support if the index retraces.
10,969 - 11,189 (Golden Pocket): Acts as the next strong support zone.
10,158 (0.5 Fib): A deeper retracement level, likely to hold during a major pullback.
Resistance Levels:
Immediate resistance is at 13,593 (1.0 Fib).
The next major resistance is the 1.272 extension (~15,257) before targeting 1.618 (~17,837).
5. Risks and Considerations
The overbought RSI could lead to short-term corrections.
Macro-economic factors, such as local and global economic conditions, could impact the bullish scenario.
Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Streaming Wars | Who’s Winning, Losing, and Sharing Passwords ?Netflix Is Laughing, Cable Is Crying, and Amazon Is Sneaking Up
Highlights for Today
- Trends and Market Share
- Disney: Streaming Profits on the Rise
- Comcast: Cable Restructuring Underway
- Warner Bros : Box Office Challenges
- Paramount: Streaming Growth Amidst Challenges
In the Battle for Loyalty, One Fact Stands Out: Netflix vs the Rest
1. Trends and Market Share
Platforms like YouTube Premium, Amazon Prime, and Apple TV+ do not report quarterly numbers. Additionally, Disney+ Hotstar is excluded due to its planned merger with Reliance in 2025.
Streaming continues to replace traditional linear TV, benefiting all players. Nielsen reports streaming comprised 41% of US TV time in September 2024, a 3.5-point increase year-over-year, primarily at Cable’s expense.
Key Trends to Watch
-Password-Sharing Crackdown: Following Netflix’s success, Disney introduced paid sharing in the US in late September, with effects expected to emerge in Q4. Max is also gearing up for this initiative.
-Amazon Prime’s Growing Presence:CEO Andy Jassy revealed that Prime Video attracts over 200 million global viewers monthly. Combining exclusive content, live sports, and e-commerce integration, Amazon’s ecosystem presents a credible challenge to Netflix.
-YouTube’s Dominance in Living Rooms: YouTube accounts for over 25% of US streaming TV time (excluding YouTube TV) and continues to grow. Alphabet disclosed that YouTube’s ads and subscriptions brought in $50 billion in revenue over the last 12 months, surpassing Netflix’s $38 billion.
-Subscriber Trends: Tentpole events, like the Olympics for Peacock or hit series like House of the Dragon for Max, drove sign-ups. However, retention remains a challenge for all but Netflix.
2. Disney: Streaming Profits Rise
Disney’s fiscal year ends in September, with Q3 FY24 covering the June quarter.
-Streaming Profits:Disney’s direct2consumer (DTC) segment, which includes Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+, posted its second consecutive profitable quarter, generating $321 million in operating income. Core Disney+ subscribers rose by 4.4 million, reaching 123 million, driven by ad-supported tiers.
-Box Office Wins: Hits like Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine powered $316 million in studio profits. Disney became the first studio to surpass $4 billion in global box office revenue in 2024.
- Challenges in Parks: Parks and Experiences revenue dropped 6% to $1.7 billion, impacted by hurricanes, rising costs, and competition from the Paris Olympics. Domestic attendance held steady, while international parks struggled.
- Linear TV Decline: Revenue fell 6%, with profits plunging 38% to $498 million as cord-cutting and reduced ad sales weighed heavily. Disney plans to integrate streaming and linear TV rather than divest assets.
- Optimistic Outlook: Disney expects earnings growth in FY25 (high single digits) and double digits in FY26 and FY27. Blockbusters like Moana2 and Mufasa:The Lion King are anticipated to maintain momentum.
Takeaway: Disney’s Q4 highlighted strides in its streaming turnaround, buoyed by box office wins. However, the decline in linear TV underscores the challenges of transitioning in a shifting media landscape. Strong content and a focus on profitability position Disney for success under Bob Iger’s leadership.
3.Comcast: Cable Restructuring
-Olympics Drive Growth:The Paris Olympics boosted NBCUniversal’s revenue by 37%, generating $1.2 billion in advertising and adding 3 million Peacock subscribers, which now total 36 million.
-Streaming Expansion: Peacock’s revenue rose 82% year-over-year to $1.5 billion, with losses narrowing to $436 million from $565 million last year.
-Cable Struggles: Cord-cutting led to a loss of 365,000 cable TV subscribers, with video segment revenue down 6.2%. Comcast is exploring a spinoff of cable networks like Bravo and CNBC to prioritize growth areas.
-Theme Parks Slow: Theme park revenue dipped 5% to $2.3 billion as domestic attendance normalized post-COVID.
-Broadband Trends:Despite losing 87,000 broadband customers, revenue increased 3%, with higher average revenue per user.
Takeaway:Comcast’s Q3 reflected both opportunities and challenges. While the Olympics showcased its media strength, declines in cable TV and theme parks persist. Streamlining through a cable spinoff could sharpen its focus, but sustaining growth in Peacock and broadband remains critical.
4.Warner Bruh : Box Office Challenges
-Streaming Growth:Max gained 7.2 million subscribers, reaching 110.5 million globally, supported by international expansion and hits like *House of the Dragon*. Streaming revenue rose 9%, marking Warner’s first profit since 2022.
-Box Office Struggles:Studio revenue declined 17%, with theatrical revenue falling 40% due to a weaker film slate (*Beetlejuice Beetlejuice* and *Twisters* compared to last year’s *Barbie*). Video game revenue dropped 31%.
-Mixed Network Results:Network revenue grew 3% from the Olympics and *Shark Week*, but advertising revenue fell 13%. The $9.1 billion NBA impairment from Q2 continues to loom.
-Debt and Cash Flow Issues:** Free cash flow dropped 69% to $632 million, with $41 billion in debt. Warner renewed its Charter Communications deal to bolster stability.
-CEO’s Confidence:David Zaslav emphasized Max’s momentum, projecting $1 billion in streaming profits by 2025 and hinting at password-sharing monetization.
Takeaway:Warner’s Q3 highlighted streaming success but underscored its dependence on Max as traditional film and TV segments falter. Balancing debt, declining cash flow, and expanding streaming profitability will be key to its stability.
5.Paramount: Streaming Growth
-Streaming Success:Paramount+ gained 3.5 million subscribers, reaching 72 million, thanks to sports like the NFL and UEFA and shows like *Tulsa King*. The streaming unit achieved a $49 million operating income, its second consecutive profitable quarter.
-TV and Film Challenges:TV revenue fell 6% due to lower ad sales and declining cable subscribers. The film division saw revenue plummet 34%, with theatrical revenue dropping 71%.
-Merger Progress:Paramount’s merger with Skydance Media is on track for early 2025, following the exploration of 12 potential bidders.
-Cost-Cutting:Paramount has completed 90% of its $500 million cost reduction initiative, resulting in layoffs and asset write-downs.
-Strategic Shift:Paramount is seeking a streaming joint-venture partner to better compete with Netflix and Disney while managing cable TV’s decline.
Takeaway: Paramount’s streaming gains are encouraging, but traditional TV and film struggles persist. The Skydance merger offers a potential transformation, though stabilizing legacy businesses remains a significant hurdle.
WAAREE ENERGIES - Bullish Momentum in ActionTrade Overview: The bullish setup is unfolding well with TP1 already achieved at 2955.75. Price action is showing strong signs of continuation toward the remaining targets.
Key Levels:
Entry: 2881.85
Stop Loss (SL): 2822.05
Take Profit Targets:
TP2: 3075.35
TP3: 3194.90
TP4: 3268.80
Technical Insight:
The price is trending above the 15-minute moving averages, with a GREEN signal from the Risological Indicator, confirming bullish intent. The breakout beyond TP1 suggests sustained upward pressure.
Traders should watch for any resistance near TP2.
Strategy Tip:
Trail stop loss to lock in profits as the price advances. A pullback toward the entry zone could offer an additional opportunity to strengthen long positions.
Stay tuned for further target hits as Waaree Energies powers through!
RIVIAN Is this EV maker dead??Rivian is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.757, MACD = -0.170, ADX = 26.255) as it is extendint today yesterday's massive rejection on the 1D MA200. The long term pattern is a Channel Down and we are on the latest bearish wave and about to form a 1D MACD Bearish Cross. The two previous bearish waves of the pattern reached the 1.618 and 2.0 Fibonacci extension respectively, so a progressive lower low is identified there potentially. In any event, we expect at least the 2.0 Fibonacci level to be tested (TP = 8.65).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
AMAZON: Small pullback expected. Buy the dip.Amazon is trading inside a Channel Up on the 4H timeframe, supported by both the 4H MA50 and the 4H MA200 and almost overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 68.804, MACD = 6.500, ADX = 38.620). The 4H RSI is printing a sideways pattern which was a sell signal when the previous bullish waves peaked. The first pulled back to the 0.382 Fib, the second to the 0.5 Fib. Consequently we expect a quick pullback here but technically the dip should be bought on the 0.382 Fib. Our target after that will be near the top of the Channel (TP = 230.00).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
SasanSeifi| Can It Hit the $300 Zone?Hey there, ✌ Examining the 4-day chart for NASDAQ:TSLA , we can see a slight upward movement from the $140 price range. After multiple attempts to break above, the price encountered resistance around $265, resulting in a negative reaction and subsequent correction. Currently, the price hovers around the $248 level. My medium- and long-term outlook remains bullish, with an expectation that the price could rise toward the $300 supply zone and reach targets between $320 and $350.
One possible scenario is that, after a consolidation phase, if Tesla holds within the critical support range of $230 to $200, it could see significant growth toward the mentioned targets. Preserving these key support levels is crucial. However, if the price breaks below the $200 level and consolidates there, this scenario would lose validity, possibly leading to further correction.
💢This analysis is my personal viewpoint and not financial advice. If you found this helpful, please like and comment – I’d love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
FABL potential Buy setupReasons for bullish bias:
- Price respecting upward trendline
- Harmonic AB=CD pattern formation
- Price is at horizontal support
- Safe entry can be taken after a bullish candle closing
- No divergence
Here are the recommended trading levels:
Entry Level(CMP): 47.15
Stop Loss Level: Closing below 43.5
Take Profit Level 1: 52.59
Take Profit Level 2: 57.41
Take Profit Level 3: 72
BABA | A trillion dollar criticismChinese tech titan Jack Ma had been having it rough ever since his criticism of Beijing triggered a backlash on his companies and wealth but a recent development may change the tide.
On Friday, China's central bank announced a fine of 7.12 billion yuan, or $985 million, for Ant Group the fintech giant co-founded by Ma that operates the Alipay payments app signaling that its years-long regulatory crackdown is ending.
But the years-long crackdown has taken a heavy toll on Ma's wealth and the market valuations of the companies he holds stakes in. Alibaba the flagship company he cofounded saw a 45%, or $620 billion, drop in market value since shares hit their peak in 2020, per Bloomberg's calculations on Sunday.
Ant Group is now valued at around $78.5 billion marking a steep 75% discount to its valuation of $315 billion in a scuttled IPO before Beijing's regulatory crackdown in 2020.
The collective $850 billion wipe out in Alibaba and Ant's valuations has sent Ma's net worth plunging from about $61 billion in October 2020 to $34.1 billion as of Monday
On a personal level, Ma has also been lying low for more than two years.Ma angered Chinese authorities after giving a speech in October 2020 in which he criticized China's financial regulatory system and claimed Chinese banks were operating with a "pawnshop" mentality. His words prompted intense regulatory scrutiny of his businesses including Alibaba and Ant and a wider crackdown on tech firms in China.
In January, he was spotted in Bangkok, where he visited a Michelin-starred street-food restaurant and watched a Muay Thai fight. He also popped up in Hong Kong in the same month.
In March, Ma returned to a school he founded in his hometown of Hangzhou in eastern China.
In April, he was appointed an honorary professor at the University of Hong Kong. In May, Ma took up a teaching position in Japan, one of the first public roles he has assumed since disappearing from the spotlight in 2020.
Last month, Ma attended the Alibaba Global Mathematics Competition finals in Hangzhou, where Alibaba is based.
Alibaba shares in Hong Kong were up 3% at 86.90 Hong Kong dollars apiece at midday, buoyed by news of the fine. The company's shares in New York closed 8.1% higher at $90.55 apiece on Friday.
COINBASE: Can it survive this brutal -10% selloff ??Coinbase remains bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 66.131, MACD = 29.400, ADX = 29.780) despite today's massive selling that is exceeding -10%. This is because the RSI was highly overbought almost at 80.000 on Monday. So far the stock seems to be correcting the insane rally from the start of November and the rebound on the 1D MA50.
Even during COIN's prior rally phases since June 2023, the time when the 1D RSI first turned overbought (above 70.000) was not the end of the rally/ top of the uptrend but merely a technical correction. At most the correction pulled back to the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which is now at 263. With an upcoming Golden Cross on the 1D timeframe, we believe Coinbase can exceed $400 on this rally phase. Our minimum target remains (TP1 = 360.00) and maximum if you seek more risk TP2 = 435.00.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TCI EXPRESS Massive Short Trade Caught on RisologicalTechnical Analysis: TCI Express (15-Minute Timeframe)
The chart demonstrates a highly successful short trade on TCI Express, with a stellar 12% decline captured within just five trading days. Here's a breakdown of the technical scenario:
Trade Overview
Stock: TCI Express
Timeframe: 15-Minute
Entry Price: ₹986 (on 7th November)
Current Market Price: ₹867
Price Movement: -₹119 (-12%) in approximately 5 days.
Trend Confirmation:
The chart showcases a well-defined downtrend with consistent lower highs and lower lows. This structure highlights strong bearish momentum.
Indicators in Action:
The visible red bands represent a dynamic resistance zone (Risological Trading Indicator). The price has consistently respected these resistance levels, confirming the strength of the sell-off.
Volume Support:
The volume aligns with the price action, increasing volume during the breakdown reinforced the bearish sentiment.
Momentum Breakdown:
The significant gap and subsequent bearish continuation patterns suggest that sellers are in complete control, with no signs of reversal yet. The tight clustering of the Risological resistance bands further validates the ongoing strength of the downtrend.
Performance
This short trade has outperformed expectations by delivering a 12% return in just five days, underscoring the precision of the entry at ₹986. Such rapid declines in a short timeframe highlight the effectiveness of the technical analysis and adherence to trend-following strategies.
Outlook
Support Zone: The price may find psychological support near ₹850, where traders should watch for potential profit booking or consolidation.
Next Levels to Watch : A break below ₹850 could trigger further downside, targeting ₹820 or lower.
Reversal Triggers: Reversal signals, such as a strong bullish engulfing pattern or price closing above the resistance bands, could indicate an exit point.
Key Takeaway
This short trade exemplifies disciplined execution, leveraging technical indicators and market momentum to achieve remarkable gains in a short timeframe. With the stock still in a robust downtrend, traders should continue monitoring for trailing stop adjustments to maximize profits while managing risk effectively.
MAGS - Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF is FLYING! UPDATE!I told you over a month ago IT WAS TIME TO BUY! Did you take me seriously? How about now?
Watch the detailed forecast I posted for viewers Oct 2, 2024.
"May profits be upon" is not just a greeting. I'm trying to support your trading journey to consistent profits.
Please leave a comment, and let me know if you found a benefit in this forecast.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
MICROSOFT: Channel Down bottomed. Bullish wave starting to 540.MSFT is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.171, MACD = -0.910, ADX = 23.585) as since the September 6th Low it has been ranging sideways. Despite the lack of trend, this price action still hit the bottom of the long term Channel Up and technically the new bullish wave should start. The conditions for that are perfect as the 1D MACD just formed a Bullish Cross. The last bullish wave touched the HH trendline of the Channel Up after surpassing the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. That is our current target (TP = 540).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Meta's Q3 Financial Results | Growth and the Future of AI & AR Meta's Q3 Earnings: AI Investments Shape the Future of Engagement and Monetization
Last week, Meta shared its Q3 earnings, revealing a familiar trend: while the results were strong, rising AI investments cast a shadow. With over 3.2 billion daily users across Meta’s apps, the company alongside Google and YouTube is in a prime position to bring AI into the mainstream. However, this shift could potentially disrupt the creator economy as we know it
So, how will this affect the future of Meta’s apps?
Did you know META is 222% up since our first analysis ?
Let’s break down the quarter and explore the latest updates
Today’s Highlights
- Overview of Meta Q3 FY24
- Recent business highlights
- Key quotes from the earnings call
- The potential decline of the creator economy
1. Meta Q3 FY24 Overview
Meta operates within two main segments
FoA: Family of Apps (Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp)
RL: Reality Labs (virtual reality hardware and software)
Daily Active People in FoA grew by 5% year over year, reaching 3.29 billion. However, user growth has slowed, with Meta adding 20 million daily users in Q3 2024 down from 50 million earlier in 2024.
Meta’s reach now extends to over half of the global population aged 15 to 80, meaning future growth will hinge more on engagement and ad efficiency than adding new users.
Key Insights from Zuckerberg:
-Facebook: Positive engagement trends among Gen Z in the U.S.
-Instagram: Sustains “strong” growth globally.
-WhatsApp: Now surpasses 2 billion calls daily.
-Meta AI: 500 million monthly active users.
-Threads: 275 million monthly active users, up from 200 million in Q2, with notable growth in regions like the U.S., Taiwan, and Japan (currently not monetized and unlikely to drive significant revenue by 2025).
Advertising Performance:
- Ad impressions grew 7% year-over-year (compared to 10% in Q2).
- Average ad price increased by 11% year-over-year (10% in Q2).
- Average revenue per user grew by 12% year-over-year, reaching $12.29 (compared to Snap at $3.10 and Reddit at $3.58).
- Despite some critics suggesting potential inflation due to bot activity, ARPU growth points to real ad value; fake users can’t generate revenue.
Financials
- Revenue rose 19% year-over-year to $40.6 billion.
- FoA saw a 19% increase, reaching $40.3 billion.
- RL grew by 29% to $0.3 billion.
- Gross margin was 82% (-1pp Y/Y, +1pp Q/Q).
- Operating margin stood at 43% (+2pp Y/Y, +5pp Q/Q).
- FoA operating profit was $21.8 billion (54% margin, +2pp Y/Y).
- RL reported an operating loss of $4.4 billion (down slightly from $4.5 billion in Q2).
- EPS rose by 37% year-over-year to $6.03.
Cash Flow
- Operating cash flow was $24.7 billion (61% margin, +1pp Y/Y).
- Free cash flow was $15.5 billion (38% margin, -2pp Y/Y).
Balance Sheet
- Cash and marketable securities totaled $71 billion
- Long-term debt was $29 billion
Guidance:
- Q4 FY24 revenue is forecasted at $46.5 billion in the mid-range
- FY24 expenses estimated at $96-$98 billion (previously $96-$99 billion)
- FY24 Capex is expected to be $38-40 billion (previously $37-$40 billion)
Summary Analysis
Revenue growth was 20% in constant currency (compared to 23% in Q2), with ad revenue growth driven by increased ad prices. Strong demand for ads continued, largely due to higher ad performance, especially in online commerce, healthcare, and entertainment. Geographically, North America and Europe led growth at 21%, while Asia slowed from 28% to 15%.
Reality Labs’ revenue rose 29%, mainly from hardware sales, though the division continues to post significant losses. As shown in the visuals, FoA operating profit reached an all-time high, while RL’s losses remain around $4 billion quarterly.
Headcount increased by 9% year-over-year to 72,404, signaling a return to hiring, particularly in priority areas such as monetization, infrastructure, Reality Labs, and generative AI.
Stock buybacks amounted to nearly $9 billion in Q3, up from $6 billion in Q2, though lower than the $15 billion in Q1. Management’s confidence in Meta’s stock remains strong, with an additional $1.3 billion paid in dividends.
Capital expenditures climbed by 36% to $9.2 billion compared to $8.5 billion in Q2, with guidance staying on track. Management anticipates “significant acceleration in infrastructure expenses” for 2025, which will affect both the cost of revenue and R&D expenses.
Despite heavy AI spending, Meta remains highly profitable, generating nearly $52 billion in free cash flow over the past 12 months—just shy of Alphabet’s $56 billion over the same period.
Q4 FY24 revenue guidance points to deceleration, with mid-range growth forecasted at 16%.
Let’s examine Meta’s investments and market position further.
2. Recent Business Highlights
Meta Orion
Meta's Orion AR glasses mark an ambitious step towards a future beyond smartphones, showcasing the potential of augmented reality (AR):
-Prototype Status: Orion is a high-tech AR prototype, equipped with advanced features, but high production costs keep it out of reach for consumers.
-Advanced AR Display: Using Micro LED projectors and silicon carbide lenses, Orion offers a broad field of view with sharper visuals than most current AR devices.
-Interactive AI Integration: With Meta's generative AI, Orion enables users to interact with virtual elements, identify real-world objects, and create immediate solutions, such as recipes.
-Complex Hardware: Orion relies on a neural wristband for control and a wireless compute puck, creating a multi-part system.
-High Cost & Limited Production: With a price tag estimated at $10,000, Orion isn’t ready for mass production. Meta has produced around 1,000 units for demonstrations and internal testing.
- Future Vision: Meta aims to release a consumer-friendly AR device within a few years, working toward a slimmer, more affordable model that could rival smartphone prices.
Orion reflects Meta's goal to lead the next wave of computing, though significant technological and cost hurdles remain.
Timing and Competitive Landscape**: Zuckerberg’s reveal of Orion may aim to justify Reality Labs' annual $16-20 billion operating loss to shareholders and gather feedback. Meanwhile, Apple has initiated its “Atlas” project to explore the smart glasses market, indicating potential plans to shift focus from the high-end $3,500 Vision Pro VR headset.
How AI Is Already Impacting Meta
Beyond future-oriented projects like Orion, Meta’s AI advancements are actively enhancing its core business in two strategic areas: engagement and monetization.
-Engagement: Meta's recommendation engine uses AI to tailor feeds with highly relevant video content, keeping users engaged. AI-driven prediction systems further increase app usage by showing content that maximizes interaction.
-Monetization: AI boosts ad efficiency across the entire lifecycle—from creation to performance tracking. Generative AI assists with ad copy, images, and video, while advanced models analyze user behavior to serve targeted ads, improving conversion rates incrementally.
-Meta AI Studio: This platform allows developers to create, train, and deploy custom AI models within Meta’s ecosystem. By enabling personalized assistants, interactive AI, and AR applications, Meta seeks to drive new consumer apps and maximize ad potential across its platforms.
Market Share
Meta’s advertising revenue hit $39.9 billion in Q3, reaching 81% of Google’s search revenue, up from 76% last year. Meta’s ad revenue is expanding at the same rate as Amazon’s, despite Meta’s larger base, signaling regained market share and effective adaptation to the post-ATT environment.
3. Key Quotes from the Earnings Call
CEO Mark Zuckerberg
- On AI and the Family of Apps: “Improvements to our AI-driven feed and video recommendations have led to an 8% increase in time spent on Facebook and a 6% increase on Instagram this year alone. More than a million advertisers used our GenAI tools to create over 15 million ads last month, and we estimate businesses using Image Generation are seeing a 7% conversion lift.”
-On Llama 4: “We're training the Llama 4 models on a cluster larger than 100,000 H100s, more extensive than anything reported elsewhere.”
-On RayBan Meta Glasses: “Glasses are the ideal AI form factor as they let your AI see, hear, and communicate with you. Demand remains strong, with the new clear edition selling out quickly.”
-On Meta AI: “We’re on track for Meta AI to become the world’s most used AI assistant by year-end, with popular uses including information gathering, task assistance, and content exploration.”
CFO Susan Li
-On Recommendations: “Inspired by scaling laws observed in large language models, we’ve developed new ranking architectures for Facebook video that enhance relevance and increase watch time”
-On Capital Allocation: “We’re optimistic about our opportunities and believe that investing now in infrastructure and talent will accelerate progress and returns.”
4. The Potential Decline of the Creator Economy
Facebook and Instagram have evolved from social networks to content networks, benefiting creators with wide-reaching platforms. However, this era may be coming to a close.
-AI-Generated Content: Zuckerberg shared plans to introduce AI-generated and AI-summarized content on Facebook, Instagram, and potentially Threads, gradually shifting away from creator-generated content as the primary engagement driver.
-Impact on Creators: As AI learns to identify and generate engaging content, creators could struggle to compete, with algorithms delivering exactly what audiences want. Over time, creators may face a landscape where AI determines the most engaging posts, relegating them to the sidelines in a world increasingly powered by self-generating content.
-Why It Matters: Platforms like YouTube share 55% of ad revenue with creators, but Meta does not, meaning that an AI-driven shift isn’t primarily about cost-cutting. Instead, it allows for more integrated ad placements within algorithmic feeds, potentially boosting impressions and conversions.
Although AI generated feeds may sound dystopian, current high engagement accounts already use tactics to maximize engagement, meaning the shift to AI might go largely unnoticed by audiences.