Stocktrading
#YESBANK breakout trade setup (18/07/2024)Greetings Folks,
today I have prepared a setup of
NSE:YESBANK on NSE
the analysis is as follows-
- the price has been consolidating in a triangle pattern for a while
- its right now trading near the trendline support
- wait for the proper breakout in either side, i am not biased towards a particular direction
- i have chosen small targets regarding the upcoming pre budget volatility
don't play with fire, always use a predefined stop loss
Force Motors under the garb of descending triangle nowThis chart shows a technical analysis of the stock price for Force Motors. The pattern displayed is a descending triangle, which is typically considered a bearish pattern. Here are the key features and interpretations:
Descending Triangle Pattern :
# Resistance Line (White Line): This is the downward sloping trendline connecting the lower highs. It indicates that the stock has been consistently making lower highs, suggesting a downward trend.
# Support Line (Green Line): This is the horizontal line connecting the lows, showing that the stock price has found a support level where buyers come in to prevent the price from falling further.
Price Movement :
The stock price is moving between these two lines, bouncing off the support and resistance levels.
As the price continues to test the support level (green line) without breaking through, it signifies strong support at this price point. However, the descending resistance line indicates sellers are consistently pushing the price lower at each rally.
Potential Breakout :
If the price breaks below the support level (green line) with significant volume, it could indicate a bearish breakout, leading to a further decline in price.
Conversely, if the price breaks above the descending resistance line (white line), it could suggest a bullish reversal, with the potential for an upward movement.
Volume Analysis :
Typically, volume plays a crucial role in confirming the breakout. An increase in volume on a breakout below the support line would confirm the bearish trend, while an increase in volume on a breakout above the resistance line would confirm a bullish trend.
In summary, this chart suggests that Force Motors is currently in a descending triangle pattern, which is a bearish signal. Traders and investors should watch for a breakout from this pattern to determine the next potential move of the stock.
Major levels to consider:
Support - 7850
Stoploss - 7450
NOTE : Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trade/decision in Force Motors
MTR => Mesa Royal Trust => Potential long term investment opp.Stock and Timeframe:
The chart is for "Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR)" on the 1-week (W) timeframe, which provides a long-term view of the stock's price movements.
Current Price:
The current price is shown as $8.20.
Trend Lines:
A downward yellow trend line is drawn, indicating a long-term downtrend. The price has broken above this trend line and seems to be retesting it as support.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels:
Around $8.20 (current price).
Around $7.75 (a lower support level if the current support fails).
Resistance Levels:
$19.87: This level is identified with a red horizontal line.
$35.34: Another significant resistance level marked with a red horizontal line higher up.
Price Targets and Potential Moves:
There are two significant potential price targets indicated:
First target: $19.87, with an expected gain of 156.26%.
Second target: $35.34, with an expected gain of 375.39%.
Annotations:
The chart mentions "retest," indicating that the price is currently retesting the previously broken trend line. This is a critical point to watch, as a successful retest could signal a continuation of the upward move.
Volume:
The volume bar indicates a significant increase in trading volume, which is a positive sign for the bullish trend, confirming the price movement's strength.
Summary:
Bullish Signs:
Break above the long-term downward trend line and retest.
Strong volume supporting the price movement.
Significant upside potential with targets at $19.87 and $35.34.
Watch Points:
Successful retest of the trend line is crucial. Failure could mean a return to lower support levels.
Resistance levels at $19.87 and $35.34 will be critical to watch for potential profit-taking or further bullish moves.
Strategy:
For long-term investors, this setup presents a potential buying opportunity with considerable upside.
For short-term traders, monitoring the retest and volume closely will be key to making informed decisions.
By keeping an eye on these critical levels and market behaviors, traders can make more informed decisions about their positions in Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR).
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Approaching the Reversal ZoneIn April, we anticipated a pullback for JNJ, and since then, the stock has dropped approximately 7%, aligning with our expectations. The current trend suggests further downward movement, reinforcing our previous analysis.
We are focusing on the support zone ranging from $134 to $116, with a potential lower bound at $109, the Corona-Low. The ongoing pullback could represent the completion of Wave (4) within this target zone, aligning with multiple levels.
We are going to be monitoring this for signs of a reversal within this zone. This zone will be crucial to confirm the next possible upward movement.
IBM is about to break outI mostly trade crypto but when I saw the daily chart of IBM, I could not pass on the opportunity given the nice consolidation set up with a potential W break out. I think IBM is a great buy in the 172-170 zone. My near term price targets are 185 PT1 and 195 PT2.
I think IBM will benefit from AI and Quantum compute trend that continues to deliver productivity gains and market moving news and sentiment. I'm accumulating in the buy zone of 172 and below. This is not a financial advice, DYOR.
POOL potential Buy setup (Weekly outlook)Reasons for bullish bias:
- Price respecting rising trendline
- Price bounced from horizontal support
- Strong weekly bullish candle closing
- No divergence
Here are the recommended trading levels:
Entry Level(CMP): 336.90
Stop Loss Level: 283.44
Take Profit Level 1: 390.36
Take Profit Level 2: 469.75
Take Profit Level 3: Open
US30 /Critical Levels & Volume Signal Potential Bullish Breakout Technical Weekly Analysis: US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average)
A Short Outlook on the Previous Movement:
The US30 has experienced a strong bullish trend, characterized by an ascending trend line that began around early 2023. The price saw significant gains until it reached a resistance level near 40,970.0, where it faced some consolidation and pullbacks. Recently, the price has been trading within a defined range, testing both support and resistance zones.
Current Outlook:
The current price of US30 is around 39,218.5, positioned near a critical pivot zone. The market is showing mixed signals, with potential for both bullish and bearish movements depending on the price action around key levels.
Bullish Scenario:
Key Trigger: A break and sustained move above 40,005.0.
Targets: The immediate target would be the yearly resistance zone at 43,040.0.
Confirmation: The breakout above 39,575, along with strong buying volume, would confirm the bullish continuation towards 40,005 and potentially higher.
Bearish Scenario:
Key Trigger: A failure to break above the pivot zone and a decline below the demand zone at 38,700.0.
Targets: The price could drop towards the strong support zone at 36,460.0, and further down to 34,430.0 if bearish momentum continues.
Confirmation: Sustained selling pressure and a close below 38,700 would confirm the bearish outlook.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 39,218.5
Resistance Levels: 40,005.0, 40,970.0, 43,040.0 (Yearly Resistance Zone)
Support Levels: 38,700.0 (Demand Zone), 36,460.0 (Strong Support Zone & Breakout), 34,430.0
Expecting Weekly Range Movement:
- The anticipated weekly range is between the support at 38,700.0 and the resistance at 40,970.0. A breakout in either direction would define the next significant move.
Preferred Direction:
- Given the strong historical bullish trend and the proximity to the pivot zone, the preferred direction leans towards bullish if the price can break and sustain above 40,005.0. However, caution is advised as the market could still face significant resistance.
Summary:
The US30 is currently at a critical juncture. A breakout above 40,005.0 would confirm a bullish continuation towards the yearly resistance zone at 43,040.0, while a failure to break this level and a decline below 38,700.0 would signal a bearish move towards 36,460.0 and potentially 34,430.0. Traders should closely monitor the price action around these key levels to determine the next major trend.
ON potential Buy setupReasons for bullish bias:
- Price gave triangle breakout
- Price bounce from support
- LH breakout
- No divergence
Here are the recommended trading levels:
Entry Level(CMP): 78.74
Stop Loss Level: 58.74
Take Profit Level 1: 98.74
Take Profit Level 2: 110.26
Take Profit Level 3: Open
SONATA SOFTWARE BUY NOW SONATA SOFTWARE - UPTREND
TRADE REASON :
1) Monthly Correction Completed
2) Day Trend Reversed
3) DII buy the stock at March month
Aditya Birla sun life trustee - 1 %
Hsbc small cap fund - 1 %
Entry - Current Price or 657 rs
Target 1 - 810 rs
Target 2 - 864 rs
Stoploss - 470 rs
Happy Trading ..
ONGC Breaks Resistance with Strong VolumeOil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has broken above key resistance levels with strong volume, confirming a bullish trend. Traders are eyeing a potential target of 320 with a stop loss set at 290. Keep an eye on this stock for potential gains as it continues to show upward momentum.
IEX (IDEX Corporation) potential Buy setupReasons for bullish bias:
- Price respecting long-term trendline
- Strong weekly bullish candle closing at horizontal support + trendline
- Bullish divergence
Here are the recommended trading levels:
Entry Level(CMP): 206.58
Stop Loss Level: 187.88
Take Profit Level 1: 225.28
Take Profit Level 2: 240.85
Take Profit Level 3: Open
Long $ENPH till day after earnings report July 24.There’s is a huge lift for all battery and renewable energy companies right.
For example, META hired Evercore EVR, to the tune of $54B to build out 11 square mile solar powered data storage facilities for its push into A.I., which requires a lot of energy to run AI.So there’s a ton of money from the large cap MAG 7 companies going into this industry right now.
Based on the volume profile and the fib levels already breached, i would easily believe if ENPH just slightly beats rev & earnings, and has decent guidance.
Mirum Pharmaceuticals (MIRM) AnalysisAdvancements in Rare Disease Therapies:
Mirum Pharmaceuticals NASDAQ:MIRM is advancing in the biopharma sector with a focus on therapies for rare diseases. Recently, Mirum submitted a New Drug Application (NDA) for chenodiol tablets to treat cerebrotendinous xanthomatosis (CTX), following positive phase 3 RESTORE trial results. FDA approval could be a breakthrough for early diagnosis and treatment of this rare disease.
Positive Market Response:
CEO Chris Peetz highlighted the potential impact of chenodiol in alleviating CTX symptoms. Wall Street has responded positively, with Citi raising their price target for Mirum to $64 from $38 and maintaining a Buy rating, reflecting confidence in Mirum's pipeline and recent updates on volixibat and FDA-approved Livmarli.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on MIRM above the $29.00-$30.00 range.
Upside Potential: With an upside target set at $48.00-$49.00, investors should consider Mirum's promising pipeline and recent regulatory advancements as key drivers for potential stock appreciation.
📊💊 Monitor Mirum Pharmaceuticals for promising investment opportunities! #MIRM #BiopharmaGrowth 📈🔍
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) AnalysisStrategic Moves and Regulatory Tailwinds:
Intercontinental Exchange NYSE:ICE is set to benefit from recent SEC regulatory proposals that could shift more trading volume back to public exchanges, enhancing ICE's competitive position. Additionally, ICE's $13 billion acquisition of Black Knight Financial will bolster its presence in the mortgage technology sector, providing comprehensive exposure to the mortgage origination value chain.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on ICE above the $124.00-$125.00 range.
Upside Potential: With an upside target set at $195.00-$200.00, investors should consider ICE's strategic acquisitions and favorable regulatory environment as key drivers for potential stock appreciation.
📊🏦 Monitor Intercontinental Exchange for promising investment opportunities! #ICE #MarketGrowth 📈🔍
TSLA | TESLA is OvervaluedTesla, Inc.'s second quarter earnings confirm our view that the stock is one of the most overvalued stocks in the market.
Tesla's stock has been rising this year amid a sudden shift in overall market sentiment, with many investors now pricing in a soft-landing scenario after a brutal past year of Federal Reserve rate hikes. But the shift in market sentiment doesn't change the fact that Tesla's stock fundamentals are completely disconnected from reality. Tesla is a terribly overvalued stock that we think is worth closer to $26 per share instead of its current price of about $290 per share.
While Tesla is profitable, its profits are nowhere near the levels needed to justify its current valuation. We recognize that Tesla's business generates an impressive return on invested capital (ROIC), which is a key measure of profitability, especially for an automaker. However, that ROIC is already declining in the trailing-twelve-month (TTM) period.
Using our reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model, we find that for the stock to have any upside at current levels, Tesla must improve its ROIC to levels not achieved by even the most profitable businesses in the world . Figure 1 shows Tesla's historical ROIC along with the future ROIC implied by its current stock price. We provide the assumptions behind this DCF scenario later in this report.
Tesla's latest earnings continue to show that it is not immune to competitive challenges and will likely see lower profitability in the future. But, its valuation implies the opposite. Any investor with fiduciary duties should be aware of the growing disconnect between Tesla's current fundamentals and the future fundamentals implied by its stock price. Even in an optimistic future cash flow scenario, shares could trade as low as $26/share. All the details are below.
Supply Constrained Argument Is Gone: Bulls have long argued that demand for Tesla vehicles has always exceeded the supply of vehicles. However, Tesla's multiple price cuts in 2023, along with its lackluster production levels through the first half of 2023, raise questions about just how much demand there is for Tesla vehicles, especially amid competition from rivals Ford (F), General Motors (GM) and virtually every other automaker. Q2 2023 marks Tesla's fifth consecutive quarter in which vehicles produced were greater than vehicles delivered. Tesla is no longer selling every vehicle it can make. Should demand for EVs slow, Tesla could find itself with higher than wanted inventory levels, which could lead to further price cuts and additional pressure on already falling margins.
Continued Cash Burn: Despite Tesla's top line growth, it continues to burn massive amounts of cash. Over the past five years, Tesla has burned a cumulative $4.2 billion in free cash flow (FCF), including $3.6 billion over the trailing-twelve months (TTM) alone. Tesla has generated negative FCF in all but one year (2019) of its existence as a public company.
Margin Decline: Tesla's "GAAP gross margin" was 18.2% in 2Q23, down from 19.3% in 1Q23 and 25.0% in 2Q22. 2Q23's GAAP gross margin was below expectations of 18.7% and remains at its lowest level since 4Q20.
Tesla's operating margin is also moving the wrong direction as it scales up. After selling 211 thousand more vehicles in 2Q23 compared to 2Q22, Tesla's reported operating margin fell 493 basis points YoY in 2Q23. Tesla noted in its press release that reduced average selling prices were one of the items that impacted margins in the quarter. We would expect Tesla's margins to fall further as competition limits pricing power across the industry.
While Tesla has rapidly ramped up vehicle production and deliveries, its market share must increase almost exponentially to justify the expectations baked into its stock price. However, as it stands, Tesla holds a meager share of the global auto industry, and its share of the EV market ranks behind incumbents across Europe and China.
In Europe, based on sales from May 2023, Tesla holds a 12% share of the EV market, much lower than VW Group (20%) and Stellantis (STLA) at (14%).In China, also based on sales from May 2023, Tesla holds 9% of the EV market compared to a staggering 38% share for top competitor BYD.
Bulls have long argued that Tesla isn't just an automaker, but rather a technology company with multiple verticals such as insurance, solar power, housing, and, yes, robots. We've long refuted these bull dreams. Regardless of the promises of developing multiple business lines, Tesla's business remains concentrated in its auto segment. Auto revenue accounted for 86% of Tesla's TTM revenue as of 2Q23.Tesla can no longer enjoy its first mover advantage as many other major automakers are producing electric vehicles. These competitors have more experience in auto production and more resources and cash flow than Tesla to invest in the electric vehicle market.
Tesla is at risk of losing market share to its competitors in the electric vehicle space and its stock price is currently not reflecting that, which is a major risk for investors.
Since bottoming out at the beginning of the year, the stock has come up almost 200%, stopping just shy of $300.
One could say the recent selloff is due to the earnings, but technical analysis would have suggested that a selloff was due even before the earnings.
Firstly, we can see that a significant bearish divergence has been building in the RSI since June. Furthermore, we have been nearing an important area of trade as highlighted by the red rectangle. The $300 level has been a key area of trade, and you’d expect to see some resistance.
So if a pullback has begun where can we expect it to end?
As I see it, we have formed an initial ABC structure from the lows in wave 1 of a five-wave impulse. This means that wave ii could now take us down to the 61.8% retracement of this rally, which lands us at $198.
We can see that this is also a very important area of support, as shown by the Visible Range Volume Profile. And, of course, we have the 200 day Moving Average offering support around this level, too.