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Vix Gaps up 18% with Israel/Iran Conflict The Markets are moving money into buying Puts and this signals Fear. This is what war does I suppose and is the logical scenario that we would anticipate. Put Options are being bought as market participants anticpate lower prices on the Indices overall in the Short term at least here. We gapped up to a Daily level on the Vix where we consequently observed a decrease. The Size of the gap coupled with the Daily level and the not-too-far off Weekly level provided a strong place to reverse to fill the gap. The market is up 3% on the day after being up much more. Since the beginning of the Israel/Iran Conflict (Monday April 15th) the Vix is up 9% . As we move further into Q2, I'm anticpating a continued pullback in the broader stock market or even range. Vix may go sideways or range
TVC:VIXLong
by ShrewdCatfx
Nasdaq and Indices Lower on Middle East conflictNasdaq keeps pushing bearish as the stock indices struggle to deal with rising tensions and conflict in the middle east. The Monthly/Weekly timeframes .. everything is bearish. As we head into the close of the week I'm anticpating a further push bearish. The previous 4hr candle closed a shooting star candle.. this coincided with the 1hr timeframe rejecting a 1hr resistance zone,17,397. The market dropped and really disliked the Israel strikes from 12 hours ago. We have bearish momentum , anticpating a retest of daily support level 17,164. The weekly candle will likely keep pulling down to finish off the candle. Vix volatility index gapped way up overnight due to war conflicts and this signals more puts being bought and therefore more anticpated downside on the Indices.
NShort
by ShrewdCatfx
Mid April: Market pullbacks, inflation concerns; critical levelsIn April, the markets navigated a sluggish terrain, witnessing pullbacks from the record highs achieved in March for both the S&P 500 and the Dow. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ experienced a marginal dip, bolstered by specific technology stocks. Persistent concerns surrounding inflation lingered, exacerbated by the latest Consumer Price Index data revealing a 3.5% annual increase in March, with core inflation climbing to 3.8%. These figures, coupled with inflation data surpassing expectations, tempered anticipations for immediate interest-rate adjustments. Our analysis pinpoints a notable development as the US stock market dipped below the critical 5141 level, meriting close observation. Signs suggest a potential further descent, potentially to close a gap, presenting a prospective opportunity for traders. We recommend traders monitor these levels vigilantly for insights into market trajectory and potential trading prospects, particularly surrounding the 4982 gap level. This juncture could serve as a pivotal support or resistance zone, contingent upon price action and market sentiment. Diligently tracking these benchmarks can furnish invaluable guidance for making well-informed trading decisions amidst the current market landscape.
SP:SPX
by Vestinda
U.S. Stock Indices, signs of Relief? 🏛️hello traders.. the U.S. stock indices have been getting pounded by bearish sentiment related to new war conflicts. Also, they were due for a pullback as things have been quite bullish the last few months. Price currently is testing a Daily support level on Nasdaq at 17,500. The NYSE 1hr candle just closed strong bearish below our Daily support level and we are currently retesting structure to continue bearish. A 4hr zone at 17,410 may be the last hope for bears before another selloff takes place to retrace another 2 percent to 17,164 Daily support level. We currently have bearish momentum in the Risk-On stock markets. We had retail sales come out much better than expected earlier this week but this didnt do much at all for price. Strong jobs data and increasing inflation in recent months have increased price a decent amount and this looks like a healthy pullback for profit taking and liquidations.
NShort
by ShrewdCatfx
PALANTIR: Best buy opportunity since January.PLTR is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 33.299, MACD = -0.640, ADX = 35.931) as it trades under its 1D MA50 and today reached the 1D MA100 for the first time since February 5th. Even though the 1 year Channel Up still has some downside to bottom on its 1D MA200, this is technically the best buy opportunity since the January 31st low as the 1D RSI entered the 1 year Support Zone. This is the 3rd correction inside this Channel and each leg is -4% shorter, so the current -25% correction from the top is a fair Low to buy. The accumulation at the bottom of those corrective waves has been between 4-6 weeks so the market may take its time to accumulate towards the end of May and then rally aggressively. Fair target, the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (TP = 29.00). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NYSE:PLTRLong
by InvestingScope
1
CAPE Fear: Is the Stock Market Headed for a Cliff Dive? A dark cloud hangs over the seemingly sunny skies of the stock market. The culprit? A valuation metric known as the CAPE ratio, which is currently hovering near its third-highest level in history. This has some investors spooked, whispering fears of a potential market plunge. But is this cause for panic, or simply a cautionary sign? The CAPE ratio, or cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, takes a company's average earnings over the past 10 years into account, rather than just the most recent year. This provides a smoother picture of a company's value and avoids distortions caused by short-term fluctuations. When applied to the entire S&P 500 index, it offers a snapshot of the overall market valuation. Historically, a high CAPE ratio has often preceded significant market downturns. For instance, the dot-com bubble burst of the early 2000s and the 2008 financial crisis were both preceded by elevated CAPE ratios. This correlation has led some to believe that the current high CAPE ratio is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode. However, the story isn't quite so black and white. Here are some factors to consider: • Earnings Growth: A key caveat is that high CAPE ratios can be justified by strong corporate earnings growth. If companies are consistently generating more profits, a higher valuation might be warranted. While future earnings are never guaranteed, a healthy corporate sector with robust profit margins can support a higher CAPE ratio. • Interest Rates: Interest rates play a crucial role in stock valuations. When interest rates are low, as they have been for the past decade, stocks become more attractive compared to bonds and other fixed-income investments. This can drive up valuations, even if underlying fundamentals haven't necessarily strengthened. • Investor Psychology: Investor sentiment can also influence the market. If investors are feeling optimistic and bullish, they may be willing to pay a premium for stocks, pushing valuations higher. Conversely, fear and uncertainty can lead to a sell-off, causing a rapid decline in the CAPE ratio. So, what does this mean for the future of the stock market? • Caution is warranted: A high CAPE ratio is a signal that the market may be overvalued. Investors should be cautious and avoid blindly chasing momentum stocks. Diversification and a focus on long-term fundamentals remain crucial investment strategies. • Not a guaranteed crash: A high CAPE ratio doesn't necessarily predict an imminent market crash. It simply suggests that future returns might be lower than those experienced in recent years. • Focus on quality: Instead of chasing high-flying stocks with inflated valuations, investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals, a history of consistent earnings growth, and sustainable business models. The current market situation calls for a balanced approach. While a high CAPE ratio is a reason for caution, it shouldn't trigger panic selling. Investors should be mindful of valuation metrics, but also consider factors like earnings growth, interest rates, and overall economic health. By adopting a prudent investment strategy and focusing on quality companies, investors can navigate this period of uncertainty and potentially weather any potential storms.
SP:SPXShort
by bryandowningqln
APPLE: Is this 1D MA50 rejection something to worry about?AAPL is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.445, MACD = -1.220, ADX = 19.718) as it is getting sold emphatically today following Friday's rejection on the 1D MA50. That was the first time to hit the 1D MA50 in 2 months, so this rejection may be just short term profit taking. We can basically see two Channel Down patterns, very similar with each other. On November 2nd 2023, when the 1D MA50 also broke following a price rebound inside the S1 Zone, it also gave a pullback on the following session. If tomorrow we see a recovery, then we might be on a similar recovery path towards the R1 level. Our target is just under it (TP = 199.00). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by InvestingScope
6
MICROSOFT: Sell and Buy at the right place.MSFT is on healthy bullish technical levels on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 60.229, MACD = 3.110, ADX = 14.662) and there is no indication that the current uptrend won't be extended. We expect the current HH bullish wave of the Channel Up to continue as high as 450.00 before a technical correction. This is what took place after the July 18th 2023 HH, which pulled back to the 0.382 Fibonacci level. Consequently we are willing to buy again for the long term only at 400.00. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by InvestingScope
1
ROCKET LAB: Very strong long term buy opportunity.RKLB is almost oversold on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 31.788, MACD = -0.150, ADX = 26.851) which makes it an automatic technical buy for the long term. Besides that, the price has entered the long term Support Zone that commenced on the June 30th 2022 Low. The pattern is identical to the March-May 2023 bottom. Once the 1D MA50 breaks again, we expect a very aggressive rally. Target 1 on the LH trendline (TP1 = 5.50) and long term Target 2 near the HH and 1.236 Fib (TP2 = 8.75). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NASDAQ:RKLBLong
by InvestingScope
1
"Eyeing Trent stock 📈: Set your sights with a stop loss at 3900Investors eyeing Trent stock may consider a strategic approach with a stop-loss set at 3900 and a target price of 4300. This approach aims to manage risk by limiting potential losses while targeting a specific price level for profit-taking. The stop-loss serves as a safety net, protecting against adverse market movements, while the target price provides a clear objective for capitalizing on the stock's upward momentum.
NSE:TRENTLong
by Shivam_Bhanot