$2.55 to $9.30 $VEEE$2.55 to $9.30 NASDAQ:VEEE was just one of awesome movers to give great payday if you weren't too greedy 💵
Stocks that make +300% +500% moves in a day out of nowhere can also come out with offering news as company tries to get paid from the move which just happened in the market. That is the reason of stock drop and it usually happens outside of regular hours so if you buy in the morning you can ride it whole day if you want, but it's smart to lock some if not all of the massive profit into end of day and the get back in again next morning if no offering news.
Stocktrading
JOHNSON AND JOHNSON: Re-accumulation is targeting $175.JNJ is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.991, MACD = -1.040, ADX = 18.184) as it's only trading around its 1W MA50 but having made an impressive rebound 4 weeks ago inside the Demand Zone. This is the 4th time this Demand Zone provided a rally and the last one even crossed over the 3 year LH trendline that kept the stock on a downtrend since 2022. The breakout confirmed the emergence of a HH trendline which is taking the stock on a new multiyear bullish path. We expect at least one more high on the HH before the end of the year (TP = 175.00).
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Alphabet (GOOGL) Shares Drop Over 7% in a Single DayAlphabet (GOOGL) Shares Drop Over 7% in a Single Day
According to the Alphabet (GOOGL) stock chart, yesterday’s main trading session opened around $163.70 but then saw a sharp decline, hitting an intraday low of approximately $148 per share. By the close, bulls managed to recover only a small portion of the losses. As a result, Alphabet (GOOGL) shares fell by more than 7% during the session – marking the worst performance among the S&P 500 constituents (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen).
Why Did GOOGL Shares Fall?
The drop followed remarks by Eddy Cue, Apple’s Senior Vice President of Internet Software and Services, who:
→ noted a decline in search traffic on Safari;
→ revealed plans to expand Safari’s search capabilities using artificial intelligence.
These developments heightened concerns over Google’s dominance in search and its advertising revenue. According to media reports, analysts are warning of rising competition from AI-powered search platforms such as OpenAI, Grok, and Perplexity.
Technical Analysis of Alphabet (GOOGL) Shares
In our 23 April analysis, we identified a descending price channel and emphasised the psychological significance of the $150 level, which had served as a key support in 2024.
Since then, bulls showed confidence by pushing the price above the red channel. In addition, the chart has begun to outline a potential ascending trend channel (marked in blue).
However, yesterday’s statement from competitors shifts the outlook. The current GOOGL stock price is positioned at the lower boundary of the blue channel – which could act as support, reinforced by the psychological $150 level.
On the other hand, a bearish breakout below this area may revive the downtrend that began in February, potentially paving the way for a test of this year’s lows.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
STOCKS | MARKET WATCH | Why Long-Term Investing Still Wins🤯 The start of 2025 was a bit of a rollercoaster for stocks.
Global markets got seriously rattled in the first few months by some sudden jitters. When President Trump announced those aggressive tariffs, it caused significant concern among investors, sending stock markets tumbling and prompting a flight to safety. Like Reuters said, April was "epic" for crazy market swings – the VIX fear index shot up to levels we hadn't seen since 2020 and 2008, and then just as quickly dropped back down. Markets went wild.
But then, by late April, the panic kind of ... disappeared. Once President Trump paused the implementation of the most severe tariffs, stocks bounced back pretty sharply. The S&P 500 recovered most of what it lost. After that nasty drop, it ended April only about 5% lower than it started the year. The Nasdaq, with all its tech stocks, pretty much ended the month where it began. So, after all that drama, major US stock markets weren't far from their all-time highs, showing how fast that "fear" can vanish.
📊 How key indexes did
S&P 500 (USA): 📉 Dipped in early April but bounced back late. Ended April around -5% for the year, after almost hitting a bear market.
Nasdaq Composite (USA): 📉 Similar story. Tanked on the tariff scare, then rallied when things calmed down, ending April pretty much flat for the year.
MSCI World (Global developed markets): 🤷♂️ Had its ups and downs along with the US markets. By the end of April, it was pretty much flat for the year – no big moves for the overall world index.
MSCI Emerging Markets: 📉 Didn't do as well as developed markets. Asian stocks, especially, took a hit early April because of trade war worries, so this index lagged, even though it recovered a bit by the end of the month.
FTSE/JSE All-Share (South Africa): 🇿🇦 The odd one out! The JSE jumped about +5% in the first three months of 2025, mainly thanks to mining stocks. It even hit a record high in March. The April craziness shook it up too, but because it did so well earlier, it was still slightly up for the year by late April.
Takeaway? Global stocks were jumpy, but they mostly recovered. By late April, most major indexes were close to where they started the year. South Africa's market was the exception, having a good first quarter that helped it weather the April storm.
⏳ Staying invested beats trying to be a stock Wizard
All this back and forth can make investors nervous. You start thinking, "Should I just sell now before it drops even more?" But history usually says that's the wrong move. Just sticking with it usually works out better than trying to guess the market's next move. BlackRock's iShares recently pointed out that "waiting for the 'right time' to invest might mean missing out on the best days," while staying invested lets you benefit from that "compounding" thing and get through the short-term bumps. Simply put, if you sit on the sidelines during big swings, you often miss the big rebound days. One study even showed that if you missed just the five best market days over 20 years, you'd end up with way less money than someone who just stayed in the market.
The legendary investor Charlie Munger put it simply: "The first rule of compounding: never interrupt it unnecessarily." Trying to jump in and out of the market around all the volatility is super tough – the biggest up days often follow right after the biggest down days. On the other hand, patient investors who just ride out the noise tend to grab more of those long-term gains. After all, with compounding, those small gains build on each other over time.
💰 The awesome power of compounding over time
Compounding basically means the sooner you invest and the longer you stay invested, the more your returns build on each other like a snowball rolling downhill. For example, the total return JSE All-Share index was up almost 23% over the last year. That kind of gain shows how just staying invested during good times can really grow your wealth. If you'd panicked and pulled out, you would have missed most of that growth. Over longer periods, like 5 to 10 years, the JSE has almost always gone up. The big lesson is that it's about "time in the market," not trying to "time the market," that really makes your returns grow and smooths out those bumps along the way.
🌍 What's driving the markets and the economy
There were a few big things happening that explain why the markets moved the way they did.
🇺🇸 US GDP Slowdown: The US economy actually shrank a bit in the first quarter of 2025. A lot of people blamed this on a big surge in imports as businesses bought stuff ahead of those potential President Trump tariffs. Even though this news spooked the stock market briefly in late April, underlying consumer spending was still looking pretty decent.
📈 US Company Profits: On the bright side, US companies reported some pretty strong profits. Analysts were expecting good growth in earnings for the S&P 500 in the first quarter, even with the economic slowdown. And it turned out even better – a lot of companies beat expectations, and overall earnings were up quite a bit from last year. This helped keep stock prices from falling too much during the pullbacks.
🇪🇺 European Spending Boost: In Europe, governments are starting to spend more. Germany, for example, proposed a huge fund for infrastructure and energy. The EU is also loosening its spending rules and increasing defense budgets. Some experts think this could actually boost Europe's economic growth a bit each year, which would mean better profits for European companies. Some even think European companies might see faster profit growth than US companies in the next few years because of this spending.
🇨🇳 Asia and Trade Wars: Asia was the weak spot. China's economy showed some signs of trouble, with a survey suggesting its manufacturing activity might have shrunk in April after a couple of months of growth. This seemed to be a direct result of the US tariffs. Asian stock markets took a hit on the tariff news, which dragged down the overall emerging markets index. Basically, tariffs and trade tensions hurt growth in Asia and its markets, which then affected returns in emerging markets globally.
✅ The bottom line
Early 2025 reminded us that markets can freak out quickly – but they can often bounce back just as fast. The swings felt scary, but history tells us that just sticking with your investments usually pays off. Major stock markets are pretty much where they were a few months ago, while economies and company earnings are still moving forward. For long-term investors, that wild week in April just reinforced an old lesson: stay invested and let compounding do its thing. As some experts say, "get invested and stay invested" because the most volatile times often have the biggest market gains. By sticking to your plan, you avoid missing those big up days when the "fear" fades and markets recover.
_________________________
SP:SPX
Sources: Recent market reports and data including the April SATRIX 2025 market newsletter “Once Again, Volatility Blinked and Fear Lost., nasdaq.com, reuters.com, ishares.com, insight.factset.com, reuters.com, iol.co.za
Eli Lilly (LLY) Shares Fall Over 15% in MayEli Lilly (LLY) Shares Fall Over 15% in May
The share price of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), the world’s largest pharmaceutical company, has seen a sharp shift in market sentiment:
→ From its April low to high, LLY shares rose by over 30%;
→ However, since the start of May, the LLY stock price has dropped more than
15% — the closing price on the last trading day of April was around $895, while today the share is trading near $775.
Why Are Eli Lilly (LLY) Shares Falling?
The decline can be attributed to three key factors:
1→ Q1 Earnings Report: Although the company reported earnings per share above expectations ($3.34 vs $3.25), investors may have been concerned by significantly higher spending on research and development.
2→ Competitor Partnership: CVS Health’s announcement that it will offer Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy instead of Lilly’s Zepbound added further pressure to LLY shares.
3→ Sector Sentiment: Broader biotech sentiment turned negative following reports that the Trump administration is considering a pricing model that would cap drug prices based on lower rates in other countries.
The media is also discussing upcoming decisions from Vinay Prasad, the new head of the FDA division overseeing vaccines and gene therapy.
Technical Analysis: Eli Lilly (LLY) Share Chart
Key price movements (marked on the chart) justify the formation of a downward channel.
On the one hand, bearish sentiment may intensify in light of recent developments. The median line of the channel could act as resistance to any upward movement.
On the other hand, bulls may find support around the $765 level — a former resistance point and the boundary between two price gaps.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Stellantis N.V.Key arguments in support of the idea
The company's shipments are projected to recover in the latter half of the year.
STLA's valuation appears significantly lower compared to its industry peers
Investment Thesis
Stellantis N.V. Stellantis N.V. (STLA), a leading global automotive manufacturer, stands as a dominant force in both North American and European markets. The company boasts a diverse and comprehensive portfolio of automobile brands, encompassing renowned names such as Jeep, Fiat, Peugeot, Maserati, Dodge, Opel, and Chrysler. Ranking among the top five automakers worldwide in passenger car shipments, Stellantis derives approximately 45% of its total revenue from its sales in North America.
Last week, the White House signaled a policy shift by announcing the easing of tariffs for the automotive industry, providing a potentially positive catalyst for automaker stocks. On April 3, the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on the importation of foreign-manufactured automobiles. This measure will be extended to include similar duties on imported auto parts beginning May 3. The Big Three, namely Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, produces a portion of its vehicles and several auto parts for the U.S. market in Canada and Mexico. Consequently, these companies
have experienced significant stock declines since the beginning of the year, attributable to the new tariffs. Notably, while three out of every five cars sold by Stellantis in the U.S. are assembled domestically, approximately 20% of their components are imported and thus subject to the 25% tariff. Last Tuesday, President Donald Trump unveiled relaxed tariffs on auto parts, permitting U.S. automakers to reclaim up to 3.75% of the car’s total cost at retail for previously paid duties. This tariff relief could substantially aid Stellantis in recuperating most of its tariff expenses. If 20% of all components in automobiles produced in the region are subject to the 25% tariff, the effective tariff cost on the total vehicle will be 5%, of which 3.75% can be reimbursed. Thus, without any immediate alterations to their supply chains—which they currently have no plans to modify—the duty on a U.S.- manufactured vehicle effectively reduces to 1.25% of its final retail price. While closures and suspensions of certain production sites are inevitable, the overall impact of these duties is less severe than anticipated just weeks prior. It is our assessment that these Big Three automobile manufacturers possess the resilience and strategic capability to navigate and adapt to the newly imposed tariff environment.
Stellantis is strategically realigning its model portfolio, signaling a potential recovery in its market share. In the first quarter of 2025, the automaker unveiled three new models and is poised to introduce an additional ten models aimed at the U.S. and European markets by year's end. This comes despite a 9% y/y decline in shipments during the first quarter. However, the company has managed to bolster its market share in Europe, a trend attributed to the invigorated product lineup. We anticipate that this revitalization will enable Stellantis to achieve a 7.8% y/y increase in shipments during the second half of the year, reaching 2.8 million units. Nonetheless, first-half shipments are expected to remain subdued, a development largely anticipated by current consensus estimates.
STLA shares remain notably undervalued within the automotive sector, presenting a more economical option compared to its peers. Currently, Stellantis is trading at a 2024 EV/EBITDA multiple of 1.4x, significantly lower than the median figure of 3.8x for the six largest U.S. automakers by market share. This year, the company is confronting a "double whammy" of challenges. In addition to contending with the potential financial burden of tariffs, Stellantis has also been grappling with substantial inventory levels—a repercussion of its waning pricing competitiveness. Despite these hurdles, we view this as a strategic opportunity to initiate a long position. It is anticipated that the automotive giant will navigate the emerging challenges of 2025 effectively.
Our target price for the Company is set at $11.3, with a "Buy" recommendation. To mitigate any potential downside risks, we suggest setting a stop-loss at $8.7.
NATRIUM | Investing | Why BILL GATES is Betting on NATRIUMBill Gates is betting big on Natrium - should you be, too?
Natrium is this next-generation nuclear reactor design that's attracting a lot of attention from people like Bill Gates and other major investors. What's particularly interesting about it is that it combines a fast reactor with a built-in molten salt "battery." Essentially, it can generate a steady output of power and then provide an extra boost during peak demand by drawing on its stored heat. This design aims for greater flexibility in meeting fluctuating electricity needs.
The technology is a joint development by TerraPower, the company co-founded by Bill Gates, and GE Hitachi. They're presenting it as a zero-carbon power source capable of reliably backing up intermittent renewables like wind and solar, ensuring a consistent supply of clean energy.
The excitement from investors like Bill Gates appears to be driven by the need to address climate change and secure reliable energy supplies. They view Natrium as a way to deliver large-scale, carbon-free power while potentially overcoming some of the limitations of older nuclear reactor designs. Gates has emphasized the enhanced safety features and potential for lower operating costs. Furthermore, Natrium's specific design to complement the intermittency of solar and wind, through its energy storage, is a significant draw for investors looking at future energy solutions. The substantial public and private investment, including government funding and bipartisan legislative support, also signals strong confidence in this technology.
The description of TerraPower as a "Bill Gates-backed" firm developing this multi-billion dollar demonstration plant highlights the high-profile nature of the project. The fact that corporate partners, such as the data center company exploring Natrium for their power needs, are also getting involved indicates a broader recognition of its potential beyond just government initiatives.
Compared to traditional nuclear reactors, Natrium offers some potential advantages. Its sodium coolant operates at near-atmospheric pressure, simplifying safety compared to the high-pressure water systems in older designs. This allows for natural heat dissipation in case of issues, reducing the risk of large steam explosions. Another key aspect is Natrium's potential for more efficient fuel utilization and reduced long-lived waste generation. The design aims for better fuel efficiency and a smaller volume of long-term radioactive waste compared to current light-water reactors.
Natrium's primary advantage over wind and solar is its dispatchability. Unlike the intermittent nature of renewables, Natrium can provide power consistently, 24/7. The integrated energy storage allows it to complement renewables by absorbing excess energy or releasing power during periods of low renewable output. This firm grid support is a significant benefit for utilities concerned about grid stability and the variability of renewable sources.
For utilities transitioning away from coal, Natrium offers a carbon-free, relatively direct replacement in terms of power output. It also has a smaller land footprint compared to large-scale wind or solar installations.
There are inherent challenges with a first-of-a-kind system like Natrium. The prototype is still under construction, lacking a proven operational track record. Construction and licensing processes could face delays and cost overruns. Critics also raise valid points about the actual safety and cost-effectiveness compared to projections. The use of sodium coolant, while offering safety advantages, also presents risks due to its reactivity with air and water, requiring robust containment systems. Regulatory scrutiny will undoubtedly be extensive.
And fuel supply is a critical uncertainty. Natrium requires high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU), which is not currently widely available. Disruptions in the supply chain and limited existing production capacity pose a significant risk to the timely and cost-effective operation of Natrium plants.
Looking ahead, Natrium is being considered for deployment in regions needing reliable power to complement renewables and to power energy-intensive industries. The long-term vision involves integrating Natrium with renewable energy sources to create a more stable and decarbonized grid.
The speculative outlook for Natrium in the next 5-10 years is heavily dependent on the successful completion of the Wyoming demonstration plant. If it meets its targets, it could pave the way for wider adoption. However, the timeline is ambitious, and challenges related to fuel supply and regulatory approvals remain. A successful demonstration could trigger significant investment and adoption in the coming decades, positioning Natrium as a key player in the energy transition.
If you're interested in investing in companies involved with TerraPower's Natrium reactor, several publicly traded firms are integral to its development and supply chain:
🔧 Engineering & Construction
KBR Inc. | (NYSE: KBR)
KBR has formed a strategic alliance with TerraPower to commercialize and deploy Natrium reactors globally. The collaboration focuses on creating a replicable contracting framework to reduce financial risk and ensure cost transparency in deploying Natrium technology.
terrapower.com
⚛️ Nuclear Fuel & Components
BWX Technologies Inc. | (NYSE: BWXT)
BWXT has been awarded a contract by TerraPower to design the Intermediate Heat Exchanger for the Natrium demonstration project. This component is critical for transferring heat within the reactor system.
Centrus Energy Corp. | (NYSE American: LEU)
Centrus Energy is collaborating with TerraPower to establish domestic production capabilities for high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU), which is essential for fueling the Natrium reactor.
⚙️ Manufacturing & Industrial Partners
Doosan Enerbility Co., Ltd. | 034020.KQ (KOSDAQ)
Doosan Enerbility is supplying critical components for the Natrium reactor, including the core barrel and internal supports.
HD Hyundai | 329180.KQ
HD Hyundai is manufacturing the reactor vessel for the Natrium project.
🌍 International Collaborators
SK Inc. | 034730.KQ
SK Inc., a South Korean conglomerate, has invested $250 million in TerraPower to support the demonstration and commercialization of the Natrium reactor.
Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) | 15760.KS (KOSPI)
KHNP has entered into a strategic collaboration with TerraPower to support the Natrium project, leveraging its expertise in nuclear power development.
OTHERS:
1. Mirion Technologies (NYSE: MIR)
Mirion is supplying the Radiation Monitoring System (RMS) and Nuclear Instrumentation System (XIS) for the Natrium Reactor Demonstration Project in Wyoming.
2. GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV)
Through its subsidiary, Global Nuclear Fuel–Americas (GNF-A), GE Vernova is partnering with TerraPower to establish the Natrium Fuel Facility in Wilmington, North Carolina. This facility aims to produce high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel essential for the Natrium reactor.
3. NuScale Power Corporation (NYSE: SMR)
While not directly involved with the Natrium project, NuScale is a prominent developer of small modular reactors (SMRs), a category that includes Natrium. The company's advancements in SMR technology contribute to the broader nuclear energy landscape.
4. Southern Company (NYSE: SO)
Southern Company is collaborating with TerraPower on the development of a molten chloride fast reactor (MCFR), a separate advanced nuclear project. Their involvement in advanced nuclear technologies aligns with the innovations seen in the Natrium project.
________________________________
Sources: Recent industry reports and news articles and TerraPower press releases provide the data above. Also put together with the help of AI.
world-nuclear-news.org, ans.org, gatesnotes.com, scientificamerican.com, terrapower.com, reuters.com
Apple Shares (AAPL) Drop Below $200Apple Shares (AAPL) Drop Below $200
Late last week, Apple released a quarterly report that beat analysts’ expectations:
→ Earnings per share: actual = $1.65, forecast = $1.63
→ Revenue: actual = $95.36bn, forecast = $94.5bn
However, today AAPL stock price is below the psychological $200 mark, over 7% lower than last week’s high (point E).
Why did AAPL shares fall?
According to media reports, investors were concerned about weaker-than-expected services revenue and disappointing sales in China. These factors have renewed fears that the ongoing US–China trade tensions could have a deeper impact on Apple going forward.
Bearish sentiment may also have been amplified by Warren Buffett’s decision to step down as head of Berkshire Hathaway — as we noted yesterday — since his company is one of Apple’s major shareholders.
Technical Analysis of Apple Shares (AAPL)
Key AAPL price action patterns (marked) show a sequence of lower highs and lows, forming the basis for a downward channel. Fibonacci ratios reinforce bearish characteristics in price movements:
→ The rise from B to C is approximately 50% of the decline from A to B
→ The rise from D to E is around 50% of the decline from A to D
This technical picture suggests a potential bear market, where rallies may be corrective rebounds following impulsive drops. This strengthens the scenario in which AAPL shares could continue falling within the established descending channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
MICROSTRATEGY: Big 1W MA50 rebound targeting $845 at worst.MicroStrategy is on excellent bullish technicals on its 1D outlook (RSI = 67.412, MACD = 25.350, ADX = 58.097), capitalizing on the double bottom rebound on the 1W MA50 four weeks ago. Technically that was also a HL bottom on the 2 year Channel Up. The minimum rise it delivered on a bullish wave was +263.38%. Based on that, the trade is long, TP = $845.
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Buffett Steps Down, Berkshire Shares Pull Back from Record HighBuffett Steps Down, Berkshire Shares (BRK.B) Pull Back from Record High
Berkshire Hathaway has released its quarterly report, which came in slightly below analysts’ expectations:
→ Earnings per share: actual = $4.46, forecast = $4.72
→ Revenue: actual = $90.8bn, forecast = $89.7bn
However, the bigger news was not the weaker results, but the decision of legendary 94-year-old Warren Buffett to step down as head of the company after nearly 60 years in charge. According to Reuters:
→ Vice Chairman Greg Abel will take over leadership;
→ Buffett will still influence decisions and has said he does “not intend to sell a single share of Berkshire”.
In pre-market trading today, BRK.B shares are priced around $526, compared to Friday’s close above $541, which marked a historic high. The decline suggests a natural negative reaction by market participants to the news.
Technical Analysis of BRK.B Stock Price
The Berkshire Hathaway stock price is moving within an upward channel, and:
→ In 2025, it has outperformed the broader equity index, showing a strong recovery following the early April market selloff;
→ Following the recent news, the price will likely retreat from the upper boundary of the channel toward the median line, which may act as support (as it did in late April, as shown by the arrow).
The recent price action appears to be a false bullish breakout above the $535 resistance — a bearish signal.
It’s possible that the initial emotional market reaction may fade, and BRK.B shares could continue to outperform the S&P 500 (tracked via the US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen). Whether this scenario plays out will depend on the leadership and decisions of Greg Abel, especially as the company now holds a record cash reserve of nearly $350 billion.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Microsoft’s Big Moves This Quarter | From Activision to AI AgentMicrosoft’s Revenue Surge: The Power of AI, Gaming, and Strategic Investments
Microsoft has released its Q1 FY25 earnings for the quarter ending in September
The stock saw a 6% drop, indicating the results fell short of investors' high hopes. Trading at over 30 times projected earnings for next year, expectations for Microsoft were significant.
CEO Satya Nadella stated
“Our AI business is set to exceed an annual revenue run rate of $10 billion next quarter, making it the fastest business in our history to reach this milestone.”
This means that AI will soon account for about 4% of Microsoft's total revenue in under three years a remarkable feat for a global giant.
If you need a quick summary, here are three main points:
1. ☁️ Azure’s growth is slowing. As Microsoft’s key player in the AI competition, Azure grew 34%, down slightly from 35% in the prior quarter (after adjustments). This comes as Google Cloud raised the bar, with its growth accelerating from 29% to 35% during the same period.
2. 🤖 AI growth is limited by hardware supply, as capacity struggles to meet demand. Data center expansion is a long-term process, and Microsoft is investing heavily in infrastructure, aiming for a growth boost by 2025.
3. 👨👩👧👦 Consumer-focused products like Gaming and Devices are underperforming. Although not essential to Microsoft's core business, their poor performance has impacted overall results.
Here’s a breakdown of the insights from the quarter.
Overview of today’s insights:
- New segmentation.
- Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 overview.
- Key earnings call highlights.
- Future areas to monitor.
1. New Segmentation
Revised Business Segments
In August, Microsoft announced a reorganization of its business segments, effective this quarter. The purpose? To better align financial reporting with the current business structure and strategic management.
Summary of the main changes
- Microsoft 365 Commercial revenue consolidation: All M365 commercial revenue, including mobility and security services, now falls under the Productivity and Business Processes segment.
-Copilot Pro revenue shift: Revenue from the Copilot Pro tool was moved from Productivity and Business Processes to the More Personal Computing segment under Search and news advertising.
-Nuance Enterprise reallocation: Revenue from Nuance, previously part of Intelligent Cloud, is now included in Productivity and Business Processes.
-Windows and Devices reporting combination: Microsoft now reports Windows and Devices revenue together.
Impact of These Changes:
Core Segments Overview:
In summary:
- The Productivity and Business Processes segment has grown significantly.
- The Intelligent Cloud segment has decreased due to the reallocation of Nuance and other revenue.
Products and Services Overview:
- M365 Commercial now includes Nuance, shifted from the Server products category, along with integrated mobility and security services.
- Windows & Devices have been merged into a single, slower-growth category.
Additional Insights:
- Azure, Microsoft's cloud platform, is reported within 'Server products and cloud services.' Although its growth rate is shared by management, exact revenue figures remain undisclosed.
Azure’s past growth figures have been adjusted for consistency, with the last quarter’s constant currency growth recast from 30% to 35%, setting a higher benchmark. Tracking these metrics is challenging due to limited revenue disclosure, but this recast indicates Azure's raised growth expectations.
2. Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 Performance
Financial Summary:
-Revenue: Up 16% year-over-year, reaching $65.6 billion (exceeding estimates by $1 billion). Post-Activision Blizzard acquisition in October 2023, the growth was 13% excluding the merger.
New Product and Services Segmentation Results
- Server products & cloud services: $22.2 billion (+23% Y/Y).
- M365 Commercial: $20.4 billion (+13% Y/Y).
- Gaming: $5.6 billion (+43% Y/Y), influenced by Activision.
- Windows & Devices: $4.3 billion (flat Y/Y).
- LinkedIn: $4.3 billion (+10% Y/Y).
- Search & news advertising: $3.2 billion (+7% Y/Y).
- Enterprise & partner services: $1.9 billion (flat Y/Y).
- Dynamics: $1.8 billion (+14% Y/Y).
- M365 Consumer products: $1.7 billion (+5% Y/Y).
Core Business Segments Breakdown:
- Productivity and Business Processes: Increased 12% Y/Y to $28.3 billion, supported by M365 Commercial, especially Copilot adoption.
- Intelligent Cloud: Grew 20% Y/Y to $24.1 billion, with Azure AI driving growth.
- More Personal Computing: Grew 17% Y/Y to $13.2 billion, including a 15-point boost from Activision. Devices fell, but search and ad performance improved under new segmentation.
Key Observations:
- Microsoft Cloud revenue climbed 22% Y/Y to $39 billion, making up 59% of total revenue (+3 percentage points Y/Y).
- Azure continues to drive cloud services and server products' growth.
- Xbox growth has surged due to the Activision acquisition since Q2 FY24, expected to stabilize by Q2 FY25.
- Windows OEM and devices combined, showing a 2% decline in Q1 FY25.
- Office rebranded to Microsoft 365; updated naming will be used starting next quarter.
- Margins: Gross margin at 69% (down 2pp Y/Y, 1pp Q/Q); operating margin at 47% (down 1pp Y/Y, up 4pp Q/Q).
- EPS: Increased 10% to $3.30, beating by $0.19.
Cash Flow and Balance Sheet:
- Operating cash flow: $34 billion (52% margin, down 2pp Y/Y).
- Cash**: $78 billion; Long-term debt**: $43 billion.
Q2 FY25 Outlook:
- Productivity and Business Processes: Anticipated 10%-11% Y/Y growth, steady due to M365, Copilot inclusion, and expected LinkedIn growth of ~10%. Dynamics set to grow mid-to-high teens.
- Intelligent Cloud: Projected 18%-20% Y/Y growth, slightly slowing, with Azure growth expected between 28%-29%.
- More Personal Computing: Forecasted ~$14 billion revenue, declines in Windows, Devices, and Gaming anticipated, with some offset from Copilot Pro.
Main Takeaways:
- Azure's growth slowed to 34% Y/Y in constant currency, with AI services contributing 12pp, up from 11pp last quarter. This marks a dip from the recast 35% prior and included an accounting boost.
- Capacity limitations in AI persist; more infrastructure investments are planned, with reacceleration expected in H2 FY25.
- Commercial performance obligations grew 21% to $259 billion, up from 20% in Q4.
- Margins were pressured by AI infrastructure investments; Activision reduced the operating margin by 2 points.
- Capital expenditures increased by 50% to $15 billion, half dedicated to infrastructure, with further Capex growth expected.
- Shareholder returns included $9.0 billion through buybacks and dividends, matching Q4 repurchases.
Earnings Call Highlights:
Azure AI saw a doubling of usage over six months, positioning it as a foundation for services like Cosmos DB and SQL DB. Microsoft Fabric adoption grew 14% sequentially, signaling rapid uptake.
AI Expansion: GitHub Copilot enterprise use surged 55% Q/Q, with AI-powered capabilities used by nearly 600,000 organizations, a 4x increase Y/Y.
M365 Copilot has achieved a 70% adoption rate among Fortune 500 companies and continues to grow rapidly.
LinkedIn saw accelerated growth in markets like India and Brazil and a 6x quarterly increase in video views, aligning with broader social media trends.
Search and Gaming: Bing’s revenue growth surpassed the market, while Game Pass hit a new revenue record, propelled by Black Ops 6
Capital Expenditures: CFO Amy Hood highlighted that half of cloud and AI investments are for long-term infrastructure, positioning the company for sustained growth.
4. Future Outlook
Energy Needs: Microsoft, facing higher power demands, plans to revive a reactor at Three Mile Island with Constellation Energy by 2028 to power its AI data centers sustainably.
Autonomous AI Agents: Coming in November, these agents will perform tasks with minimal human input, enhancing efficiency. Copilot Studio will allow businesses to customize these agents, with 10 pre-built options to start.
Industry Impact: Salesforce has launched Agentforce, signaling increased competition. CEO Mark Benioff recently compared Microsoft’s Copilot to the nostalgic Clippy, stoking rivalry.
For further analysis stay tuned
BROADCOM: Long term Channel Up points to $350 within 2025.AVGO is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 64.250, MACD = 3.500, ADX = 29.483) as last week it crossed and close over its 1W MA50 and on the current 1W candle it is about to close over the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level as well. This is similar to the November-December 2022 fractal that followed after the last major market bottom. Both sequences bottomed on the same 1W RSI level (34.80), so the structures share more similarities than differences. Since the 3 year pattern is a Channel Up, the stock is now on the new bullish wave aiming for the next HH. The 2022 rebound reached the 1.618 Fib extension before consolidating for weeks, so our long term target is the current 1.618 Fib (TP = $350.00).
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What Is Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) in Investing and Trading?What Is Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) in Investing and Trading?
Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is a popular strategy used by investors and traders to manage market fluctuations and build positions over time. Instead of trying to time the market, DCA focuses on consistent, regular investments regardless of price movements. This article answers “What is DCA?”, its advantages and limitations, and how it can be applied in both investing and trading.
What Is Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)?
So what is DCA investing? Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is a strategy that involves consistently investing a fixed sum at regular intervals, regardless of the asset’s current price. This approach helps distribute the cost of purchases over time, potentially reducing the impact of short-term price fluctuations. Instead of trying to time the market perfectly—a challenging task even for experienced traders—a dollar-cost averaging strategy focuses on regular contributions to average the cost of assets.
This method offers a straightforward, disciplined strategy for both long-term investors and traders who wish to build or adjust positions gradually. By spreading out purchases, a DCA strategy may help mitigate the effects of market volatility. For example, during a period of market decline, the fixed investment buys more units at a lower cost, which could result in higher returns when prices recover. Conversely, during a sustained rise, the investor buys fewer units, which helps avoid overexposure. For example, if you invest $50 every week and the market is rising, you will buy fewer stocks, but when the market is moving down, you will buy more with the same amount.
What does DCA mean for market participants? DCA is particularly useful in uncertain economic environments where price swings are common. It provides a systematic approach to entering the market, removing the need to make snap decisions based on short-term market movements, and fostering a steady accumulation of assets over time.
How Does DCA Work?
DCA investing operates by establishing a regular schedule for investing a set amount of money into a chosen asset, regardless of its current market price. Instead of waiting for a particular price or market condition, funds are allocated at consistent intervals—be it weekly, monthly, or quarterly. Over time, this means buying more units when prices are lower and fewer units when prices are higher, resulting in an average purchase price that can be lower than if the investment was made in one lump sum.
Consider an investor using DCA. They commit £100 every month to buy company shares. In the first month, the share price is £20, so they purchase 5 shares. The next month, the price drops to £10, allowing them to buy 10 shares with the same £100. In the third month, the price rises to £25, and they purchase 4 shares.
Over three months, the investor has spent £300 and acquired 19 shares in total. To calculate the average cost per share, divide £300 by 19, which equals approximately £15.79 per share. This average is lower than the highest price paid and reflects the effect of buying more shares when prices are low and fewer when prices are high.
DCA also simplifies the process of entering the market. By adhering to a set timetable, investors bypass the need for constant market analysis, making it particularly appealing for those who prefer a more hands-off strategy. This systematic approach can be applied not only to traditional investments like shares and funds but also to other assets that traders and investors engage with.
DCA in Trading
DCA isn't just for long-term investors; traders can also employ it to navigate the ups and downs of fast-moving markets. By spreading out their entries or exits, traders may potentially lower the average cost of a position or build on a winning trend, all while managing their exposure to volatile moves.
Lowering the Average Price
For traders facing a position that's moving against them, DCA offers a way to adjust the average entry cost. By allocating additional funds, the average price of the position may be reduced. This approach can create a potential opportunity to exit with better returns if the market reverses. However, it is important to note that this method also increases exposure, and additional entities might compound losses if the trend continues.
Adding to a Winner
Conversely, traders may apply DCA to increase their positions when an asset shows strength. By gradually adding to an effective trade, the overall exposure is built in a controlled manner, potentially capturing further movement without committing all capital at once. This method is particularly popular in markets where momentum builds slowly, allowing traders to gradually take advantage of the sustained trend.
Applications Across Markets
Using DCA in stocks can help manage entries during periods of volatility, especially when market sentiment shifts rapidly. Forex traders often use similar techniques to adjust positions in response to fluctuating currency pairs, while the high volatility seen in crypto* markets makes DCA an appealing strategy for building positions gradually.
When using DCA in trading, a disciplined approach is essential. Whether lowering the average cost in a losing position or building on an effective trade, traders should carefully consider the additional risk that comes with increased exposure.
Advantages of Dollar-Cost Averaging
Dollar-cost averaging offers a range of advantages that make it an attractive strategy for both investors and traders, especially when navigating uncertain markets.
Mitigating Market Volatility
By investing a fixed amount at regular intervals, DCA spreads out exposure over time. This approach can reduce the impact of sudden market swings. Instead of being affected by a one-off high price, the average cost is spread across different market conditions. This may help stabilise entry points and smooth out short-term volatility.
Disciplined Investment Approach
DCA promotes a structured investment routine. With regular contributions, there is less temptation to try timing the market. This disciplined approach might be particularly useful when markets are highly volatile or ahead of news and economic events. It encourages systematic investing, reducing the likelihood of making impulsive decisions driven by market noise.
Accessibility for All Traders
DCA does not require intricate market analysis or deep expertise in market timing. Its straightforward nature makes it appealing to both newcomers and seasoned traders looking for a simpler method to build positions over time. By providing a clear framework, DCA allows traders to focus on long-term goals without the pressure of constant market monitoring.
Limitations of Dollar-Cost Averaging
While dollar-cost averaging offers a structured approach to investing and trading, there are some limitations to consider.
Potential Opportunity Cost
Spreading out investments means funds are gradually deployed over time. In a market that is consistent, waiting to invest might lead to missed returns compared to committing all funds upfront. This method can reduce the impact of volatility but might underperform during extended trends.
Continued Exposure to Market Trends
Investors remain exposed to the market throughout the investment period. If the market experiences a prolonged trend, regular investments will accumulate at better prices, but overall returns may still suffer. This approach does not eliminate market risk and requires a long-term perspective to potentially see a turnaround.
Dependence on Consistency
The effectiveness of dollar-cost averaging relies heavily on maintaining a consistent investment schedule. Any interruption or inconsistency can dilute the intended advantages of the strategy. It also assumes that investors are able to commit regular funds, which may not be feasible in all financial situations.
Comparing DCA to Lump-Sum Investing
Comparing DCA to lump-sum investing offers insights into different approaches to managing market exposure and returns.
Risk Exposure
Lump-sum investing involves placing all available funds into an asset at once. This method can yield higher returns if the market moves in their favour, but it also exposes the investor to immediate risk if the market moves against them. In contrast, risk is spread over time through a dollar-cost average, meaning regular investments reduce the likelihood of entering the market at a high point and potentially lowering the overall average cost.
Market Conditions
The performance of each approach can vary depending on market trends. In steady trends, lump-sum investing may capture more returns since all funds are deployed early. However, in volatile or declining conditions, DCA could mitigate the effects of short-term fluctuations by smoothing out entry prices over time.
Flexibility and Commitment
Lump-sum investing requires confidence and a readiness to commit all funds immediately. DCA, on the other hand, offers a more measured entry into the market. This method is popular among those who prefer a systematic approach and might not have a large sum available at one time.
The Bottom Line
Understanding the dollar-cost averaging definition can help investors and traders potentially manage market volatility and reduce emotional decision-making. While it has its limitations, DCA can be an effective strategy for building positions over time.
FAQ
What Is an Example of Dollar-Cost Averaging?
Imagine investing £100 into a stock every month, regardless of its price. In January, the stock costs £20, so you buy five shares. In February, the price drops to £10, allowing you to buy 10 shares. In March, the price rises to £25, and you buy four shares. Over three months, you’ve invested £300 and purchased 19 shares, averaging out your cost per share to £15.79.
Is There the Best Dollar-Cost Averaging Strategy?
The most effective DCA strategy depends on individual goals. A consistent, long-term approach with regular investments—whether weekly or monthly—may help smooth out market volatility. Focusing on diversified assets could also reduce risk exposure.
What Is the Daily DCA Strategy?
This strategy involves investing a fixed amount every day through DCA, meaning it may help minimise the impact of short-term price fluctuations in volatile markets. However, it requires careful planning due to frequent transactions and potential fees.
Does Dollar-Cost Averaging Work With Stocks?
Yes, DCA is commonly used with stocks. It may help manage the effects of market volatility, allowing investors to build positions over time without worrying about short-term price swings.
What Does DCA Mean in Stocks?
DCA, or dollar-cost averaging, in stocks, means regularly investing a fixed amount, regardless of price, to average out the cost per share over time and manage market volatility. A similar answer is true for “What does DCA mean in crypto*?”, except it would involve a regular fixed investment in a particular cryptocurrency*.
How to Calculate DCA in Crypto* Investing?
There is a simple formula to calculate DCA, meaning in crypto*, an investor would just divide the total amount invested by the total number of units purchased. This provides the average cost per unit over time, regardless of price fluctuations.
*Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NVIDIA: Don't turn your back on the A.I. darling yet.NVIDIA has turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.902, MACD = -2.040, ADX = 28.815) as it has recovered a portion of the 2 month correction. April's low was exactly on the 1W MA100 just like the Low of the 2024 consolidation phase has been near the 1W MA50. The pattern is recurring and the rallies naturally get weaker each time as we approach the end of the Cycle this year. The 1st rally was +358%, the 2nd +257% so the 3rd one now is expected to be +157%. That gives a $225 target. The next Top will most likely start a new correction (Bear Cycle) for a 3rd Bottom on the 1W MA200.
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META Share Price Rises Cautiously Ahead of Earnings ReportMETA Share Price Rises Cautiously Ahead of Earnings Report
As shown on the Meta Platforms (META) chart, the share price rose by approximately 1% yesterday. This movement was supported by the announcement of the launch of the Meta AI app—an artificial intelligence-based application that will function as a personal assistant on mobile phones (similar to Google Gemini).
In a different market environment, the news might have prompted a more positive reaction. However, traders currently appear to be exercising caution, as Meta Platforms (META) is due to report its quarterly results after the close of the main trading session today. According to media reports, expectations include:
→ Revenue in the range of $41.35–$41.5 billion, which implies a year-on-year increase of roughly 13–14%.
→ Earnings per share (EPS) between $5.22 and $5.29, indicating a 11–12% rise compared to the same period last year.
Key Factors in Meta’s Quarterly Report
The following areas are likely to have a significant impact on META's share price in the wake of the report:
→ Advertising business , Meta’s primary revenue stream (around 96%). There is a possibility that US tariff policies could prompt major Chinese advertisers—such as Temu—to reduce their advertising spend in the United States.
→ Investment in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Augmented Reality . Market participants may revise their valuation of the stock downwards if there are lingering concerns over the long-term return on these investments.
→ Forward guidance on revenue and earnings for the next quarter and full year 2025. These forecasts will carry particular weight in an environment of elevated uncertainty linked to US trade policy.
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a “Buy” rating on Meta shares. However, some have lowered their price targets in April, noting that the stock has lost roughly a third of its value since its all-time high in February.
Technical Analysis of Meta Platforms (META)
Price movements earlier in 2025 continued to trace a rising trend channel (shown in blue), with a run of 19 consecutive days of gains in February following upbeat news. However, this trend channel appears to have lost relevance at this stage.
The psychological level of $500 now offers strong support, while the $585 level has turned into resistance. It is reasonable to expect that the earnings report could trigger heightened volatility and a test of one of these key price levels.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
S&P 500 Rally Exhausted? Watch This Level for the Next Drop!The S&P 500 Index( SP:SPX ) has finally touched the Resistance zone($5,680-$5,500) as I expected in my previous post .
The S&P 500 Index is moving near the Resistance zone($5,680-$5,500) , the Resistance line, and Yearly Pivot Point .
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that the S&P 500 Index is completing the Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) , and if the uptrend line breaks , we can confirm the end of the Zigzag correction .
When the S&P 500 Index started to rise on April 22 , Bitcoin also started to rise at the same time , so a decline in the S&P 500 Index can cause Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) to decline .
I expect the S&P 500 Index to drop to at least $5,313 AFTER breaking the uptrend line .
Note: If the S&P 500 Index touches $5,712, we can expect more pumps.
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S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD),2-hour time frame.
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Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
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Quantum's Walmart (WMT) Trading Guide 4/28/25WMT’s weekly outlook balances its defensive resilience against macroeconomic headwinds, with a comprehensive synthesis of technical, market, and strategic factors guiding its trajectory for weekly options contracts. The FAME framework underscores WMT’s long-term bullish potential, driven by robust fundamentals (+5% revenue, $0.58 EPS, 21% e-commerce growth) and adaptability (AI, Walmart+), positioning it as a resilient player in a risk-off regime. However, elevated yields (10-year 4.255%, 20-year 4.738%, 30-year 4.721%) and a stable DXY at 99.58 amplify tariff pressures and margin concerns, capping upside and reinforcing a cautious stance. A tactical long bias is favored for weekly contracts, targeting a bounce from $94.36 to $96.47–$98.50, with a short stance viable below $88.50 if support fails.
Technical implications highlight bullish momentum on daily (RSI ~40, Stochastic ~28) and weekly (RSI ~44, Stochastic ~32) timeframes, with oversold conditions signaling a rebound potential for weekly contracts if $94.36 holds. Monthly neutral momentum (RSI ~50) suggests consolidation, requiring a breakout above $96.47 to confirm bullish strength. This supports a short-term bounce but advises monitoring for sustained moves.
Market influence implications reflect a risk-off environment, with high yields and a stable DXY increasing import costs, particularly amid tariff uncertainty from WMT’s upcoming Trump meeting. The VIX at 24.84 amplifies volatility, favoring WMT’s defensive appeal but heightening risks. WMT’s Q3 FY25 strength and e-commerce growth provide stability, supporting resilience near $94.36.
OFD summary and implications reveal bearish pressure from Vanna (-$0.04), Charm (-$0.02), and DEX (-$0.06), driven by put-heavy flow and hedging demand tied to tariff fears. However, GEX (+$0.08) at the $95 strike pins price, stabilizing volatility and supporting a neutral-to-bullish bounce for weekly contracts if $94.36 holds, aligning with oversold technicals.
Edge insights bolster the case for a bounce, with institutional buying at $94–$95 signaling accumulation, defensive retail sector strength outperforming cyclicals, and low short interest (1.4%) offering squeeze potential above $96.47. These factors enhance confidence in a tactical long bias for weekly contracts, provided support holds.
Strategic outlook implications emphasize consolidation near $95.09, with $94.36 as a critical pivot. A break below risks $88.50, driven by tariff fears and bearish options flow, while a move above $96.47 targets $98.50, fueled by oversold signals and institutional support. The VIX at 24.84 and put-heavy options flow underscore volatility, but WMT’s defensive positioning mitigates downside, favoring a bounce in a risk-off regime.
In summary, WMT’s weekly outlook hinges on defending $94.36, with oversold technicals, GEX pinning, and institutional buying supporting a bounce to $96.47–$98.50 for weekly contracts. Tariff risks, high yields, and DXY stability maintain a risk-off backdrop, capping upside and requiring vigilance for a break below support, which could shift bias to bearish. This balanced approach leverages WMT’s defensive strengths while navigating weekly volatility, aligning with Buffett’s preference for resilient businesses with tactical opportunities.