Stocktrading
GOOGLE, Massive FLAG-FORMATION Completed, Targets Activated!Hello There!
Welcome to my new analysis of GOOGLE. There are important developments going on within the whole stock market as the volatility increased within the recent quarter the market momentum is likely to reach major extinctions throughout the next months in 2023. What is important here is that traders do not get trapped in just trading the whole market in the same direction because this can be highly fatal as there are many different setups within the market, bullish as well as bearish. Therefore, it is of utmost overwhelmingly high importance to choose the setups with a bullish potential for the long side and the setups with a bearish potential for the short side to move forward with the total-return approach which I already pointed out in previous publications.
With GOOGLE I have spotted interesting underlying dynamics that point to a major bullish scenario perspective and a main approach on the bullish side. When looking at my chart GOOGLE recently completed this major ascending bull-flag formation with the breakout above the upper boundary which it is now forming the next continuation formation that is approving the full completion of this major formation. The price action towards the uptrend direction is backed by the 65-EMA, the 35-EMA, and the major uptrend channel. Also, the price action already moved on with emerging with the paramount wave count with the major wave C now developing to move into the upper spheres of this whole chart price action.
With the completion of the major bull flag formation, the price action has activated the first main target zone within the 146.25 level as it is marked in my chart. Once this zone has been reached it will be highly important to determine with which volume the price action reached the zone, if it is steadily increasing higher also there is an important potential for the wave C extension to emerge with a breakout above the initial target zone. When this happens and GOOGLE has the ability to emerge with the wave C extension this is going to activate the next target zone as marked in my chart within the 157.05 level. The next times will be highly decisive here. Remember, that not every stock within the market is showing such bullishness, therefore it is necessary to measure the main underlying dynamics as I am doing it within my analysis.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching my analysis of GOOGLE. Support from your side is greatly appreciated.
VP
Coca-Cola fall back to 1.618Coca-Cola fall back to 1.618
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Coca Cola Company's stock from the end of 2019 to the present. The graph overlays the bottom to top golden section at the beginning of 2020. As shown in the figure, after peaking at the end of April 2022, the stock of Coca Cola Company broke out of the large triangle fluctuation and consolidation trend. In October 2022, after stepping back on the bottom of the graph to the top of the golden section at 1.382, it also broke out of the triple shoulder position of the head, shoulder, and top! At present, Coca Cola's stock has fallen back to the bottom of the chart, which is 1.618 on the golden section. In the future, this position will serve as the watershed for judging its strength!
AAPLE: Take this buy opportunity for a 186.50 targetApple remains neutral on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.572, MACD = -2.560, ADX = 26.090) despite the Death Cross on the 4H timeframe. The 4H MACD just formed a Bullish Cross and the pattern since the July 19th High already bears many resemblances with last September-November (2022). It seems that the market is at the point after the Double Bottom where the price rose to Fibonacci 0.786 before getting rejected on the LH trendline. This is an short term opportunity to buy and target the new Fibonacci 0.786 (TP = 186.50).
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PYPL | PayPal or MemePal?PayPal Holdings has emerged as a leader in the digital finance landscape, leveraging its consistent growth and strategic initiatives. PYPL has attracted unreasonably high valuation multiples post-pandemic, but the recent crash of around 80% from all-time highs, in combination with its growth outlook, portrays a compelling deep-value play for long-term investors.
This article explores the company's strategic initiatives, development toward market share and competitive edge, the new CEO's impact, the valuation outlook, and a technical assessment, which ultimately supports a strong buy rating for the stock in the next 24 to 36 months.
In today's ever-evolving digital landscape, understanding web traffic dynamics is crucial for any business aiming to stay competitive. PayPal demonstrates a robust trajectory in its web traffic and market presence, positioning itself as a dominant player in the finance sector.
Over the past decade, PayPal's organic traffic has grown steadily, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 17.27%, reaching monthly organic traffic of 14.3 million. The sustained growth highlights its strong online visibility and brand recognition.
However, its organic traffic dropped significantly in early 2022 from a level near 18 million per month, a nearly 20% drop from the all-time high due to fierce competition in the industry. Nonetheless, considering recent traffic trends (desktop users) on PayPal.com, the platform's total traffic has surged by 8.05% compared to the previous month, suggesting that PayPal continues to attract and engage a widening user base.
PayPal's web traffic has demonstrated remarkable growth of 9.65% in total visits in the last month, suggesting an expanding user base and heightened online engagement. Correspondingly, unique visitors have risen by 7.91%, reinforcing PayPal's capacity to attract new audiences consistently.
The average user interaction on PayPal's platform is equally remarkable, with users viewing an average of 3.3 pages per visit. This figure, which has increased by 0.78%, suggests that users actively explore the platform's offerings, potentially indicating higher interest and engagement.
Furthermore, the average visit duration is an impressive 5 minutes and 34 seconds, marking a significant 5.03% improvement. This underscores the platform's ability to capture user attention, facilitating extended interactions conducive to achieving business objectives.
Finally, PayPal's diligent efforts are reflected in its bounce rate, which has decreased by 5.38% to 29.47%. A lower bounce rate indicates improved user engagement and content relevance, implying that visitors find the content and offerings on PayPal's platform more aligned with their expectations.
A comparative analysis with a close competitor, Stripe, offers further insights into PayPal's standing. While both platforms have experienced growth in visits (PayPal: 9.65% vs. Stripe: 9.18%) and unique visitors (PayPal: 7.91% vs. Stripe: 5.37%), PayPal maintains a significant lead in both metrics, indicating a stronger market presence. Additionally, PayPal's higher pages per visit (3.3 vs. Stripe's 1.7) further emphasize its ability to capture and retain user attention
Despite a gradual slowdown, the company maintains a substantial user base and has demonstrated a consistent user growth trend in recent quarters. From Q1-22 to Q2-23, active accounts remained relatively stable, ranging from 429 million to 431 million. This includes user and merchant accounts (35 million), contributing to PayPal's versatility as a payment solution for a broad spectrum of users, from individuals to businesses. However, the YoY growth rate has steadily declined, indicating a potential saturation in its market reach. Over this period, YoY growth dropped from 9% to below 1%, signaling the weakness of its strategies to reignite expansion.
Considering the broader industry landscape, PayPal's growth outlook is influenced by the Global Payment Processing Solutions Market's projections. The market is anticipated to experience robust expansion, with an estimated USD 63.48 billion growth between 2022 and 2027. This growth trajectory translates to a CAGR of 12.18%. Despite slowing growth, PayPal's current user base and market share position it favorably to tap into this market growth.
To secure growth, PayPal prioritizes customer retention and engagement within its existing user base to counteract the sluggish YoY growth. This includes enhanced personalized offerings, rewards, and seamless experiences. PayPal also explores untapped markets and demographics geographically and among underserved segments. For instance, if PayPal uses emerging technologies such as blockchain and cryptocurrencies to expand its service portfolio, it may attract tech-savvy users and capitalize on the growing interest in decentralized finance.
PayPal has demonstrated consistent growth in its payment transactions, bolstered by its expanding active account base. Specifically, in Q2-23, PayPal reported processing 6.074 billion payment transactions, representing a 10% YoY increase but with a slower growth rate. A closer look at Transactions per active account (TPA) that reached 54.7 reveals a 12% YoY growth attributable to Braintree's transaction volume, a subsidiary playing a pivotal role in driving the company's transaction growth.
PayPal had nearly 55% market share in 2020, but the fierce competition has taken significant market share away from the fintech conglomerate. However, there are positive signs of stabilization, and PayPal currently holds a market share in the global online payment processing industry, with a commanding position of 40.52% as of July 2023, which stabilized its market share YoY (July 2022: 41%) and indicated PayPal's ability to preserve its market share.
The ongoing transition to electronic payments and increased e-commerce, which the coronavirus epidemic further hastened, had boosted PayPal's growth. Although there are niches in the acquiring market, PayPal is the undisputed e-commerce leader, creating a protective moat.
A few new rivals have emerged due to what appears to be a concentration of fintech innovation in the e-commerce sector, even though growth slowed in 2022 as the company overcame some headwinds. The company could face additional headwinds if the economy worsens.
The ongoing global shift towards e-commerce presents a substantial growth avenue for the entire industry, including PayPal. Therefore, given its platform's relative ease and security, PayPal will continue to be a preferred partner in the online world, yet, the company's market position does not allow it to impose terms on other participants or eat up an ever-increasing market.
PayPal's introduction of a fully backed stablecoin, PayPal USD (PYUSD), has the potential to bring about significant long-term benefits to the company from a fundamental perspective.
This move aligns with the ongoing shift towards digital payments, blockchain technology, and the expanding Web3 ecosystem. By launching a stablecoin that's 100% backed by US dollar deposits, short-term US Treasuries, and similar cash equivalents, PayPal aims to bridge the gap between traditional fiat currency and the emerging world of digital assets.
Firstly, PayPal's stablecoin can enhance its role in the evolving digital payments landscape. As the exclusive stablecoin within the PayPal network, PYUSD offers a seamless method for users to transition between fiat and digital currencies. The combination of PayPal's established payments expertise and blockchain's efficiency can facilitate faster transfers, reducing friction for inexperienced payments, remittances, international transactions, and more. As a result, this will likely strengthen PayPal's appeal to consumers, merchants, and developers seeking convenient, low-cost, secure payment solutions.
Furthermore, by leveraging the Ethereum blockchain and adhering to transparency standards, PayPal USD can tap into the growing Web3 community. This opens doors for integration with external developers, wallets, and web3 applications, boosting adoption and usability. The compatibility with Web3 environments positions PayPal as pivotal in expanding digital assets into mainstream use cases.
Interestingly, PayPal's focus on regulatory compliance and its partnership with Paxos Trust Company, a licensed trust company, bolsters confidence in the stability of PayPal USD. Regularly publishing reserve reports and third-party attestations will enhance transparency, reassuring users about the backing of the stablecoin. Finally, this adherence to transparency and regulation will enhance PayPal's credibility and trustworthiness in the digital finance space.
While the loss of the lucrative eBay relationship significantly impacted margins, the company's focus on cost-cutting and long-term strong growth will eventually drive solid margin expansion in the long run.
PayPal is decreasing expenses as its growth slows to maintain its adjusted operating margins. Therefore, PayPal anticipates its adjusted operating margin to improve by "at least" 100 basis points in 2023.
However, PayPal's net margin of 14.27% places it competitively in the industry, and the improvement is due to its strategy to improve transaction margin dollars. As it is management's long-term focus, net margin may improve considerably, providing a solid foundation for its long-term financial outlook.
On a trailing 12-month basis, PayPal has returned $4.9 billion to stockholders via repurchases (buybacks of 63 million shares), highlighting a focus on enhancing shareholder value. This practice continued in Q2-23, as PayPal repurchased approximately 22 million shares at an average price of $68.89 per share, totaling $1.5 billion. The ongoing trend of buybacks signifies the company's confidence in its growth trajectory.
Since becoming an independent company in July 2015, PayPal has generated approximately $29 billion in free cash flow (FCF). This underscores its financial strength and capacity to fund various growth initiatives. The allocation of $19 billion towards share repurchases and $13 billion for acquisitions and strategic investments underscore its focus on rewarding shareholders and driving strategic expansion.
Over five years, PayPal has consistently reduced its Diluted Weighted Average Shares Outstanding to 1.14 billion. This trend indicates potential benefits in earnings per share for existing shareholders, given a constant or growing net income.
PayPal's focused efforts on new product innovations, efficient A/B testing, and enhanced time-to-market capabilities are driving significant improvements in its operational efficiency and customer experience.
By consistently delivering on its roadmap and investing in platform infrastructure, tools, and AI-driven software development processes, PayPal is establishing a competitive edge. The company's commitment to continuous experimentation, with over 300 experiments launched in the year's first half, leads to incremental customer benefits and drives cumulative improvements in key metrics, including branded checkout growth.
PayPal's expansion into the buy now, pay later space and innovations like pre-approved amounts for consumers contribute to accelerated traction in this sector. The company's efforts in onboarding and introducing new experiences are leading to higher engagement and lifetime value among its customer cohorts.
One of PayPal's strategic initiatives is the rollout of passkeys in the US and Europe, streamlining the checkout log-in experience and enhancing authorization rates. This initiative positions PayPal to maintain and extend its lead over competitors, promoting continued growth.
Moreover, PayPal's focus on differentiated wallet experiences for both PayPal and Venmo users aligns with the company's belief that unique and scaled data sets are essential for leveraging AI's power to drive actionable insights and deliver differentiated value propositions to customers.
Internally, experimenting with an AI-driven PayPal assistant indicates the company's commitment to harnessing AI technology to enhance customer interactions and experiences. By envisioning the integration of this assistant into its consumer app, PayPal is poised to elevate its service offerings further.
In addition, PayPal's growth in the Payment Service Provider (PSP) business (nearly 30% on a currency-neutral basis), strong partnerships with major tech companies, and expansion of value-added services internationally are contributing to the company's robust performance. The rollout of PayPal Complete Payments, a PSP merchant solution, has garnered substantial interest and participation from key channel partners.
PayPal is effectively implementing PayPal Complete payments with various channel partners (Adobe, LightSpeed, Recurly, Shift4, Shopify, Stacks Payments, UltraCare, Wix, and WooCommerce). Notably, over 25 channel partners are slated to go live by 2023. Based on offering a modern and streamlined checkout experience, PayPal enables numerous SMB merchants to access its innovative solutions. Finally, the company's ability to leverage its platform capabilities and AI models is key to its market leadership.
The appointment of Alex Chriss as the new President and CEO of PayPal holds significant support for the company's long-term fundamental growth. Chriss brings extensive experience in technology, product leadership, and a proven track record of driving growth in the small business and self-employed segments. This background aligns well with PayPal's role as a digital payments platform and its focus on serving consumers and merchants.
Under Chriss's leadership, Intuit's (INTU) Small Business and Self-Employed Group experienced substantial growth, with a CAGR of 20% and 23% in customers and revenues, respectively. This success indicates his ability to foster growth engines within business segments and establish market-leading platforms. His leadership overseeing Mailchimp's acquisition demonstrates his ability to expand a company's capacity and customer base.
PayPal's stock is at a pivotal juncture from a technical standpoint. The recent formation of a double bottom around $59.50, marking a six-year low, carries significance. Notably, the pattern was accompanied by a bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), hinting at a possible long-term shift towards a bullish trajectory. In short, the technical setup implies the potential for a vital price reversal.
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Looking ahead, a notable resistance level at approximately $76.55 has materialized during the ongoing accumulation phase. A decisive breach above this resistance is pivotal. Once breached, this could trigger a markup phase characterized by robust bullish momentum. The stock may experience rapid appreciation during this phase.
Delving into historical data and projecting forward, there is potential for PayPal's stock price to scale heights and reach an all-time high of over $300 within the next 3-5 years. The bullish momentum highly depends on the company's fundamental progressiveness and the favorable outcomes of its strategic initiatives.
personally I shorting PYPL since it was 255 and here we are at 59$ and despite facing challenges such as shifts in web traffic, competition, and evolving market dynamics, PayPal has showcased resilience and a commitment to growth.
Silicon Valley Bank / SIVBSVB Financial Group stock tumbled more than 42% in premarket trades Friday on fears of a run on the bank, as analysts downgraded the company and reports surfaced of funds advising clients to pull their money from the parent company of Silicon Valley Bank.
Founders Fund, the San Francisco-based venture-capital fund co-founded by Peter Thiel, has advised companies to pull their money, according to a Bloomberg News report citing people familiar with the matter.In a separate development, The Wall Street Journal reported that SVB Financial Group took out $15 billion of loans from the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco at the end of 2022, compared to zero in the year-ago period, to assure liquidity.
The bank pledged collateral of about three times what it borrowed to back the advances, the WSJ reported, around the same time it sustained a 13%, or $25 billion decline in deposits in the final three quarters of 2022, the WSJ reported.
The steep losses Friday came after SVB Financial SIVB, ended down 60% in the regular trading day after it disclosed large losses from securities sales and announcing a dilutive stock offering along with a profit warning. The bank was unprepared for rising interest rates which have hit its net interest income and net interest margin
the troubles at SVB seemed unlikely to spread widely throughout the banking system. Morgan Stanley said in a note to clients that SVB’s issues were “highly idiosyncratic.”
Also on Wednesday, SVB announced it sold $21 billion worth of securities to raise cash and reposition its balance sheet toward assets with a shorter duration, which are less exposed to rising interest rates. SVB estimated that it took a $1.8 billion loss on that sale.
Uber has engaged in a long short battleUber has engaged in a long short battle
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Uber Company's stocks from the end of 2020 to the present. The top to bottom golden section of February 2021 is superimposed in the figure. As shown in the figure, the lowest point of Uber's stock in June 2022 hit the top to bottom golden ratio at 3.272. The low point in May this year and the high point in June are also the top to bottom golden ratio at 2.000 and 1.618, respectively! In the past 9 weeks, Uber's stock has engaged in a long short battle against the top of the chart against the 1.382 position in the golden section, without a clear choice of direction to break through!
Coal Mining Stocks: Trend Reversal into Bullish Again!Hello Fellow Stock Traders, Here's a Technical Analysis of HRUM!
HRUM has successfully surged beyond the confines of its previous bearish trendline, a development that augurs a compelling potential for a trend reversal on the horizon. This optimistic momentum is further underscored by the notable ascent above the EMA200 line, a key technical indicator. Notably, this ascent is accompanied by the emergence of a distinct bullish flag pattern, which is often perceived as a harbinger of positive price action.
The recent breakout not only substantiates the newfound upward trajectory but also lends credence to the notion of a promising advancement toward the target zone. Moreover, the analysis of the oscillator reveals a particularly intriguing development - a golden cross formation within the oversold realm. This phenomenon significantly bolsters the case for a sustained bullish trend continuation.
In light of these intricate technical indicators aligning cohesively, market participants could find themselves well-positioned to anticipate a potentially favorable market ascent in the sessions ahead.
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as a recommendation to take a long or short position on IDX:HRUM ".
TSLA has a flat?If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! Also, check out the links in my signature to get to know me better!
Still following the green path.
Several ways to label this, but I think a flat here would be an interesting take on things.
There are some levels to hold and pivots to break to be sure.
The Gap and High are nice draws.
It's a BREAKOUT on the chart of Godrej Consumer!!!!A CLear BREAKOUT from a major resistance, bullish daily close, beautiful support on a trendline, and the next resistance is 16.55% above.
Godrej Consumer and The FMCG Index have been on the uptrend for the last one year. Codrej CP has been taking beautiful support on a trendline which can act as a stop loss and today this stock has given a BREAKOUT from a major resistance with a bullish daily close. To make an entry we should wait for this weekly close for the confirmation of this BREAKOUT.
This stock has the immediate potential to give a 16.55% of return against the stop loss of just 3.10%.
In the Long run, it has the potential to give 44% gains from today. (Based on Fibo Retrenchment)
HISTORICLE BREAKOUT on chart of Power Finance Corporation!!!!15 YEAR long consolidation, a perfect triangle pattern on the monthly chart, with beautiful support and resistance and most important- large volumes.
Though it gave BREAKOUT last month, it was facing some selling pressures. This month we got the confirmation of a long upcoming positive trend. After seeing the chart pattern the targets seem to be so aggressive (260, 110 points, 73.77%). We can plan to enter when it crosses this month's high (170.10), as it may again face selling pressure.
META: This is how it will reach the All Time HighsMeta Platforms has gone undeniably bullish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.788, MACD = 1.430, ADX = 35.245) as the price overcame the last known barrier, the 4H MA50 which has switched to the new Support throughout the whole week.
The pattern that is standing out in the aftermath of this bullish breakout is an Inverse Head and Shoulders, which interestingly enough had a Double Bottom as its Head. Meta's usual rise structure since late last year has been Channel Down patterns, so it is likely to see another such taking it to the next High. The Inverse Head and Shoulder's structural target is the 2.0 Fibonacci level, and this is our target (TP = 378.00). Interestingly enough it falls a little under the 384.30 All Time High.
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Nike is about to test strong supportNike is about to test strong support
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Nike's stock over the past four years. The graph overlays the bottom to top golden section at the beginning of 2020. As shown in the figure, Nike's stock has hit its lowest point in recent years, hitting the 2.618 level of the bottom up golden section in the figure. The low point in October last year hit the 0.500 level of the bottom up golden section in the figure, and the high point in January this year hit the 1.618 level of the bottom up golden section in the figure! So, in the future, the bottom of the graph should be used as the dividing line for judging the strength of Nike's stock, which is 0.618 on the golden section!
Buying Uber on dips.Uber Technologies - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 45.45 (stop at 42.95)
Daily signals are bullish.
Intraday dips continue to attract buyers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end.
We look to buy dips.
The 50 day moving average should provide support at 45.20.
Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 51.45 and 52.45
Resistance: 49.49 / 50.00 / 52.00
Support: 47.28 / 45.25 / 42.95
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Broadcom (AVGO) -> Stronger Than NvidiaMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️
I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Broadcom.
Over the past 12 months Broadcom stock rallied more than 120% towards the upside, following the major hype in the whole semiconductor and AI sector.
After this recent pump it is quite expected that we will see a short term correction and if Broadcom retests the previous all time high at $630, this will be a perfectly bullish setup.
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I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy.
Keep the long term vision🫡
JP MORGAN: The final buy signal.JP Morgan Chase is trading inside a Channel Up and the most recent HL was on September 8th. Yesterday the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross and one last buy validation signal remains, crossing over the 1D MA50. The 1D technical outlooks already just turned bullish (RSI = 55.829, MACD = -1.250, ADX = 38.742) so we will buy that 1D MA50 cross and aim at a +16% total price increase (TP = 165.00).
Prior idea:
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