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SPX: Market and Macroeconomic OutlookTechnical Simple overview: It is well known among professionals that moving average 200 is one of bear market indicators as when the market is below it, the market considered in a bear market and when the market is moving above it, it will be considered as bull market. From chart perspective, we can see that the market can deviate from the moving average when bull market create big run in a short period of time. I have measured the approximate deviation between major tops and their MA200 at a time to see the percentage of deviation between the price and MA 200. We can clearly see that the last year and year 2020 shown a huge deviation from the moving average which due to Quantitative Easing, Stimulus and inflation. Interest Rate forecasting: Yesterday in the Fed Meeting, overview FOMC indicated a hawkish sentiment over interest rates, in simple english they need to increase interest rate in order to fight inflation which is said to sit around 3% at YE 2022. They also indication the interest to decrease Fed balance sheet to around PRE-COVID19 levels. From yesterday's minutes, we can take these two major statements: "Participants generally noted that, given their individual outlooks for the economy, the labor market, and inflation, it may become warranted to increase the federal funds rate sooner or at a faster pace than participants had earlier anticipated." "Some participants also noted that it could be appropriate to begin to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet relatively soon after beginning to raise the federal funds rate," I will continue to talk a little technical words and then I will explain it in simple english relevant to the market. In order for the Fed to shrink their balance sheet which reached around $8 trillions, there are arguments of either selling bonds they have or more probably they will wait until maturity of these bonds. In theory, by shrinking its bond holdings, the Fed could prop up longer-term yields. Relying less on rate hikes would meantime reduce the amount by which short-term rates rise. “A few of these participants raised concerns that a relatively flat yield curve could adversely affect interest margins” for lenders, the minutes said, referring to a sub-group of those favoring greater reliance on balance-sheet measures. Such a yield curve “may raise financial stability risks,” according to these officials." Now to the simple english in relation to the stock market: 1- When reducing Fed Balance sheet, long term rates may rise (for bonds..etc), but if hikes is not too much, short term rates won't move that much. 2- Interest rates increases make investor to search for less risky investments (long term and short term) with consideration for inflation rates 3- In repeat to what happened during 2018, the market will look for a correction if the Fed applied what is being anticipated (increase interest rate). 4- Expectation will be that same market movement as 2018, growing but slowly or may even be a neutral year. This will provide long term opportunities. until next time, AgentHK
SP:SPX
by AgentHK
1
LMND Lemonade Investment Idea Main PostLMND is at a very attractive price, it is a great idea to put it in the long term investment basket. Below we are going to discuss Fundamental analysis as technical prices can be shown on the chart. LMND management and board: 1- Founder and CEO: Daniel Schreiber From His Linkedin page we can see that he served in the following companies and positions before being the CEO of Lemonade: A- Alchemedia, Inc as Co-Founder and CEO: this company been acquired by GroupM which is a Global media investment management company for WPP’s media agencies including Mindshare, MediaCom, Wavemaker, Essence. We do not have a lot of information on Alchemedia except it is a media planning & buying agency in South Korea. The only strange indication is that this man does not sit in one country. From Korea to USA to Tel Aviv. Anyway lets continue. B- M-SYSTEMS as a Vice President, Marketing & Business Development: This is a technology company that create and invent hardwares. Also not much dedetails about the company except their website is in Greek language. This is another indication about the person being a traveller. C- SanDisk as Senior Vice President and General Manager of Mobile Network Operators: Now we are talking about holding a high position in a company with international brand name. He worked from 2007 to 2011 in multiple positions and responsibilities, being 4 years in such company mean that he is doing good work, there are multiple long job descriptions for positions he held in the SanDisk but I am not going to go through them all. D- President and Board member of Powermat: Powermat Technologies Ltd. is a developer of wireless power solutions for consumers, OEM and public places. The company licenses IP, sells charging spots to public venues and the software to support their maintenance, management and consumer interaction. E- Founder and CEO of Lemonade: Discussed. The second guy of Lemonade is Shai Wininger, is guy is a legit person, lets go through his profile: A- Co-Founder CPO, CTO of Mobideo Aerospace: Industrial grade analytics and control platform, connecting workforce data, machines and people. B- Non Executive Co-Founder, Board Member of Santa Inc Santa is the next generation of retail, a new kind of shopping experience that magically brings a personalized store to each customer’s door within minutes. The Santa app notifies users when nearby and facilitates the discovery of premium products curated from top national and global brands as well as local artisans and small businesses—spanning from fashion and home decor to toys and electronics. Customers can experience Santa’s assortment in their home with no commitment before the purchase is completed in the app. Santa is now serving residents of Frisco and Plano. To discover or download Santa, visit GetSanta.com C- Founder of Fiverr since 2010. I do not think this company need any introduction. This guy is a machine but I am not sure whether he going to settle in this company LMND or will also move from his position and open the next company as insurance companies really need care and continuing reputation caring. And the third wing of Lemonade is Ty Sagalow, his profile include Board of Advisors- Metabiota, Senior Advisor of BlockRe, CEO of Innovation Insurance Group, LLC, He even wrote a book about founding Lemonade called The Making of Lemonade. I will continue with Business description and insurance industry below.
NYSE:LMND
by AgentHK
15
PATH UiPath Investment Idea - Main Post$PATH I think this is a great business that can potentially double or triple over the next few years. UiPath is a company that provide RPA SaaS tools that help. Lets Analyse the company slowly: Business Model , what they are all about: - RPA mean Robotic Process Automation ; this is a software system that emulate human action repetitive tasks, software robots can do things like understand what’s on a screen, complete the right keystrokes, navigate systems, identify and extract data, and perform a wide range of defined actions. But software robots can do it faster and more consistently than people, without the need to get up and stretch or take a coffee break. UiPath uses artificial intelligence to analyze tasks while workers are doing them, identifying opportunities for users to automate certain processes after seeing them done only a few times. The platform includes specific tools to get ideas from employees on what to automate, to find patterns in workflows that are ripe for automation, and to build end-to-end process maps that improve key performance metrics. Users can often develop their own automation tools with the help of UiPath's robot-building tools, and the platform handles key issues like cybersecurity, compliance, and IT governance. UiPath even offers training and other resources to help users become as productive as possible. Founders and the management: - Daniel Dines: he is a Romanian Businessman, taught himself programing at young age and over time he was able to have a job in Microsoft, being in professional work environment really provide a positive sign about the person future, he later took Masters degree in mathematics and computer science (another formal education that show commitment and discipline that most of people lack). Another positive characteristics of Daniel is he is an avid reader and wanted to be an author previously, this impact on how deeply he know about the industry he is working in and the level of involvement can be. They have solid management too, for that visit this page: www.uipath.com I went through key people and checked their history and everything about them seem positive. Partners: - After having a look at partnerships that the company have, this is definitely going to scale in the future. Partners include: - EY, Delloitte, Pwc (three of the big 4!), IBM, Accenture. Just to name few because they have 75 pages on their website showing their partners. EY is an audit company and they adopted UiPath software globally, you do not expect two of the big fours to act and adopt a software without providing a real value for them. I have been personally reading since 2014 that audit firms are pushing to automate process in order to have more time to focus on products and procedures that are relevant to value adding services to customers. Just google it. Share price: - Even though the business model and market industry show potential growth and expansion, the company stock never went up that much, even in IPO period the price went up to around $90 per share and it went down now for less than half. The reason can be due to the broader macro-economic situation. It is important to look at the price range to enter from, I personally see downside potential to reach around 35 in the current market conditions, if the Federal reserve increase interest rate also in the first quarter 2022 as they have just indicated, we can also expect the stock price to fall further more. I will be monitoring the price of the company and then I will be buying in small bulks every time the stock go down until I make the company become 2% of my overall portfolio. Competition Risk: Also, UiPath's partner-focused business model has worked well, but we'll be looking to see how potential competitors respond to its success. If UiPath were to lose key partners for competitive reasons, it could potentially change the industry landscape adversely for the company. Competitors mainly include Blueprism and Automation Anywhere. Financial Information: A quick look at the company financial information, we can find the followings: - A sign of expansion and growth: revenue is growing YoY - Making operating profit - the company is still making net loss, even though its balance sheet show great cashflow numbers, the company still showing accumulated deficit, even though this is a normal thing for new companies that are spending money on sales and marketing, yet we need to know when the company will show a positive sign or reversing net loss effect. Overall the company is a solid one. I will not be buying now but definitely a one in the watchlist
NYSE:PATHLong
by AgentHK
PLTR - On the Precipice of Greatness I jumped into PLTR back in mid/late FEB when it was tanking pretty hard. I've been patiently waiting and pulled the trigger on another lower price point to decrease my DCA. After more waiting... I think we're on the precipice of greatness here with PLTR. Most of my points are called out above. Some additional notes here. 2 day candles show a LONG stretch of being oversold Last time we left oversold we saw a 79% pump We've once again been oversold for a very long stretch Double bottom established and could give us the momentum we need to break out of the oversold position Things to keep an eye on: Would be really nice to see the DMI tick up towards bullish momentum Keep an eye on the neck line of the W (orange dotted line) - needs to break that to finish the push Obviously do your own research and due diligence before investing... but as for me... I just like the stock. -Matt
PShort
by worldlyTacos81375
14
Has the FINAL Short Squeeze begun? Has the FINAL Short Squeeze begun? Is the Prophecy coming to pass? Is Armageddon finally here...... Hedgies will begin to run.... and by run, I mean COVER.... Good for us. Price is up from 52+-, TO 80+ opening 30 minutes. Volume is higher than it has been in the previous 6 trading days for GME. Broke multi day trend lines. Is reproaching the 200 day EMA at around 122 +- If this happens, I believe it will rebuild support at these levels, and it will begin its take off to the stratus sphere. Why is this happening now? 3 potential reasons? 1. Price is Low... 50 or so a share at open and MANY who have heard the calls to action want to get in. 2. Many who are holding want to double down or average down (Increasing buying pressure) 3. Hedgies who are short GME, in great volume, need to act. The rising interest on their short positions, AND potential LOSS of gains from the Armageddon soon to fall upon us is incentivizing Hedgies who are overextended on their shorts to GET out asap before their realized gains are gone or before they CAN't get out. Theoretically, if NO ONE SELLS. Everyone HOLDs with Diamond hands, and more shares are purchased, there will be NO outstanding shares for Hedgies to buy in order to cover their shorts. Causing the price to rise dramatically and only stabilizing/reversing when WE SELL. I will be waiting happily with diamond hands for the prophecy to unfold. Good luck. This is NOT investment advice. I don't know anything. Please don't listen to me and do your Own research........ I just REALLY Like the stock.
NYSE:GMELong
by lorenzsantiago
8