Latest Market Top Possibly In, Expect Some Red This WeekNext leg will be down, whether it continues down tomorrow or briefly moves up is to be seen. IF Intermediate wave 3 ended, it lasted less than the computer modeled 25 days as I forecasted. This would further mean Intermediate wave 5 must be less than or equal to the length of Intermediate wave 3 which was 20 days per the close on Friday.
The models indicate Intermediate wave 4 could be quick and not too deep. Based on waves ending in 2BC4, wave 4 could last 2-12 days with strongest agreement on 2 days. The drop could be as shallow as a 13.73% or 15.06% retracements which are the light blue levels on the chart. That distance and duration seems too shallow initially. The next set of models are based on waves ending in BC4. The strongest agreement for duration remains at 2 days, with second strongest at 12 days followed by 4 and 10 days. The quartile retracement levels are 23.9%, 46.49% and 55.05%--the yellow levels on the chart. Based on waves ending in C4, the strongest agreement on duration as it 2 trading days again, second at 12 days, third at 4 days. Retracement quartiles are the white lines in the chart and correspond to 27.2%, 42.48%, and 55.05%.
An additional consideration for the bottom is an intersection of the lines from the models and the support trendline from March 13. This line was broken for a single day at the probable end of Minute wave 4 inside of Minor wave 3 in Intermediate wave 3. A 2 day drop seems too quick while more than 10 could be too long. IF Intermediate wave 3 ending from Friday holds. The bottom of Intermediate wave 4 could be completed sometime this week or at the beginning of next week. I am currently placing the bottom to occur this Friday possibly around 4187-4210. This would be a shallow and slow drop considering the volatility of the past year. There is strong support around 4172-4177 if a quick drop occurs within 2 days but that target fades by day 3 (Wednesday).
Intermediate wave 4 is setting up to be short lived and could be followed by a short Intermediate wave 5 as well. Early projections place the final market top over the next 4-6 years later this month around 4400, although we could fall just shy of 4400. Still think the Fed, PPI, and CPI can catapult the market up after our quick jaunt down with Intermediate wave 4. A logical black swan for the top is still a Taiwan invasion that rocks all industries relying on microchips or parts from Taiwan. This would likely delay the AI future and all companies heavily invested in it. Next analysis to follow when Intermediate wave 4 appears to have wrapped.
