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Stocks to Rebound this Week?? 📈💸Stocks have gotten support from the $3900's and have recovered the 4K's. We broke out past 4009, to come just short of 4068, before meeting resistance confirmed by two red triangles on the KRI. Currently, we are pulling back a bit, but still seem to have good support at 4K. Asian shares crumbled yesterday off extremely weak retail sales figures , so be mindful of this going into the US opening. If we fall further, we should see support in the 3900's again. If not, we may be seeing an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming with a neckline at 4068. If we break out from there, we could easily test the 4100's again.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Is a Reversal Near for Stocks??Stocks have continued their decline, set to end the week deeply in the red. We have completely given up the 4K's, extending down to our level at 3867 or so. We are currently seeing a small bounce from these lows, but have yet to test 4K again, which should provide resistance. If we keep it up, we may test 4009 or 4068. The Kovach OBV is still extremely bearish, so use caution. It might be a good idea to start accumulating a long position, just be wary of the fact that we may press lower. If the selloff resumes, we should find support from lows at 3867, then 3848 and 3825.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
PLTR/USD Daily TA Neutral BearishPLTR/USD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 45% PLTR, 55% cash. Price established a new ATL at $6.48 and is technically still testing the lower trendline of the descending channel from November 2020 ($7.88) as support. Volume remains high and favored buyers in today's session, ending a five day streak of seller dominance. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $8.84, this is mildly bullish. RSI remains oversold and is currently trending up at 28.60 (after bouncing from 22.30) as it approaches a test of 33.59 resistance. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session (after bouncing from max bottom) and is currently trending up at 10; the next resistance is at 33.59. MACD remains bearish after breaking down below -0.81 support and is currently trending down at -1.34 as it approaches the ATL at -1.85. ADX is trending up at 37.50 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to defend the lower trendline of the descending channel from November 2020 at $7.88 as support, the next likely target is a test of $8.52 minor resistance. However, if Price continues to fall here, then the next psychological support level is at $5. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $7.88.
P
by dailytaguy
The S&P 500 Digs into the 3K's!!Stocks have continued their decline, for the fourth day this week. This week has been abysmal for virtually all risk-on assets. We have solidly given up the 4K's, which we noted was likely to happen if 4009 was breached. We appeared to see some stability as we tested 3978 and 3963 twice, but the selloff reinvigorated, and we smashed through these levels with ease. We appear to be getting some support at the moment from 3909, the last level in the 3900 handle. If that does not hold, we will break into the 3800 handle with 3887 and 3867 the first levels of support if we plummet further. Both Kovach momentum indicators are deeply bearish, and registering oversold conditions. A relief rally is reasonable at this point, but we will likely find resistance at 4009 with 4068 a likely ceiling for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Have Stocks Found a Bottom??Stocks found support at 3963, once again testing the 3K handle. The S&P 500 seems to be dipping into the 3K's with increased confidence. It is reasonable at this point for stocks to take a breather and mave a sideways correction or relief rally. The Kovach OBV has turned south but does appear to be curving over. If we are to see a rally, potential targets are 4009, 4068 and 4122. If the selloff continues, then 3937, 3928 and 3909 should provide support.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks MELT DOWN!! S&P 500 Breaks 4000!!Stocks broke down hard yesterday, as virtually all risk-on assets were sold-off. We smashed through 4122, 4068, and as we mentioned in the last reports, 4009 was the last level of the 4K's. This gave way, and we were able to test the high 3K's before finding support at 3978. We finally saw a small pivot from this level and have regained the 4K's, currently wavering in the vacuum zone between 4009 and 4068. The latter will provide resistance, then 4122 and 4144. It will take a sharp buyback to break all these levels and regain the 4200's. From below, 3978 should provide support, but after that, 3963, 3937, and 3928 are the next targets if it fails to hold.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
A Bearish Start to the Trading Week for Stocks 🐻📉Stocks sold off sharply at the beginning of the APAC session, which is not a good omen for the upcoming week. We are back at relative lows again at 4068 and appear to be looking to test lower. A small wick has broken through this level, and we are not seeing any hints of a buy-back from these lows. The Kovach OBV does appear to be diverging from the price, but it would be highly risky to catch this knife now. If we continue to fall, we have a vacuum zone to 4009, which is the last technical level in the 4000's. If we do bounce from current levels, then 4122 and 4144 will provide resistance.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
SPX/USD Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPX/USD Daily cautiously bearish. FOMC rally has likely concluded, the Fed did what Mr. Market expected it to but at the end of the day the inflation scenario (exacerbated by Russia/Ukraine, US worker shortage and lockdowns in China) is getting worse every day. Recommended ratio: 20% SPX, 80% cash. Price broke back down below $4175 support in yesterday's session and is currently forming a Doji Candle as it retests the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 as support. Volume remains moderately high and has favored sellers in two consecutive sessions to end the trading week. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4308. RSI is currently trending down and testing 38.06 support after being rejected by the uptrend line from January 2022 at 48.79 as resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently on the verge of a bearish crossover at 51.40; the next resistance is at 76.29 and the next support is at 18.32. MACD remains bearish and is currently retesting -76.22 minor support (after a failed attempt at trough formation) with no signs of new trough formation; a fall below -76.22 would reaffirm that the MACD uptrend line from January 2022 (at -55) has been broken. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 23.5 as Price continues to see selling pressure, this is mildly bearish; if it keeps trending up past 25 as Price continues to fall this would be very bearish. If Price is able to bounce here (off of the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021) at $4100, then it will likely retest $4175 resistance before makings its next move. However, if Price continues to fall here (after yesterday's Bearish Engulfing Candle) then the next likely target is a test of $3938 support (which would be the first test of this support). Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $4175.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Stocks Cling to SupportAs we anticipated here, stocks could do little to break 4306, which provided prohibitive resistance. The S&P 500 swiftly rejected this level and retraced almost the entire move from the pivot from 4068. We did find support at 4122, a level which dedicated readers will recognize well, confirmed by two green triangles on the KRI. However, we seem to be seeing a bear flag type pattern forming at this level, and if support gives, then 4068 is the next target. Watch the vacuum zone down to 4009, which is the last technical level in the 4000's. If we somehow muster a rally, we must first break through 4306 before we can consider higher levels.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
What the FOMC Means for StocksStocks rallied despite a Fed hike of 0.5%, the largest hike since 2008. The economic conditions between that time period and now are similar, so keep that in mind for long term investing. We anticipated a rally yesterday, as the hike was fully priced in. Exactly as we predicted yesterday, the S&P 500 is seeing resistance from a relative high at 4306. The Kovach OBV has jumped with the rally, but is leveling off at current levels. We will see if we can muster the strength for another rally. If so, 4364 should provide resistance as it is a relative low. We should have support around 4188, roughly the midpoint of the current range, but if we fall further, we could test lows at 4122 or 4068 as an absolute min. Recall that if we break 4068, there is a vacuum zone to 4009, at the base of the 4K handle.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
RDBX Redbox Entertainment the next GME GameStop ??I see the recent rally of RDBX, which is a self-service rent or purchase new-release DVDs and Blu-ray Discs, as a return to the meme stocks. RDBX went from $2 to $11 in just 10 days. If we consider only the technicals, then the stock should reverse from the Fibonacci 0.618 level, which is $6.36 to $12.70. I`m not in this trade though, the valuation is too high for me, 300Mil. GME was way cheaper when the short squeeze started. Looking forward to read your opinion about RDBX.
R
by TopgOptions
2
Stocks Await the FOMCAfter pivoting off new relative lows at 4068, stocks were able to maintain the 4180's. We are seeing strong resistance here confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. We have two levels at 4178 and 4188 that are proving difficult for stocks to break through. The stock market is clearly looking for guidance from the Fed at 14:30 EST, so we do not expect much action before then. There is a lot of uncertainty in the markets and this may provide much needed clarity. If we see a rally, then 4306 would be the target to the upside and should provide resistance. If we selloff again, then lows at 4068 should provide support. However, keep in mind there is a vacuum zone to 4009, which is the final technical level in the 4000's.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1
SPX/USD Daily TA Neutral BearishSPX/USD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. *FOMC announcement tomorrow; 50 bp rate increase + announced first sale of MBS/treasuries would be short-term bullish, anything more may be short-term bearish*. Recommended ratio: 40% SPX, 60% cash. Price is currently exhibiting bullish divergence (against RSI) while testing $4175 critical support (this is the last major support before $3383). Volume remains moderately high and has closed two consecutive sessions with buyer dominance going into the Fed announcement tomorrow afternoon when it will try to make it three consecutive sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4267, this tight margin is mildly bullish at the moment (given the critical support level). RSI is currently trending up and attempting to breakout above 38.06 resistance for the second time in a week (it is at 38.48). Stochastic crossed over bearish in yesterday's session and is currently trending down at 21.75 as it approaches a test of 18.32 support. MACD remains bearish and is currently beginning to form a trough at -76.22 minor support. ADX is currently trending up at 25 as Price is falling, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to defend support at $4175 (+ the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021), then the next likely target will be a test of $4343 minor resistance. However, if it gets rejected here ($4175) and breaks down below the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 ($4121), then it will likely test $3938 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $4175.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Set alerts for AMCAMC earnings is in 6 days. I really like the setup AMC has Here's why: 1. Earnings estimates are low: its estimated that AMC will get around -0.63, last earnings it did -0.26. 2. Its in a strong demand zone. 3. Thick bottom BlueWave When to enter? Enter once AMC breaks the resistance Line Set an alert on these Lines. I don't recommend going heavy since meme stocks are very unpredictable, here's some trade suggestions: 1. Sell PUTS 2. Buy the shares (less than 25% of your portifollio) 3. Buy Monthly CALLS (less than 10% of your portifollio)
NYSE:AMCLong
by MoonBets
4
New Lows for Stocks!! What's Next??As predicted yesterday, stocks dipped further, breaking support at 4122. We mentioned that this was a bad sign for stocks as there is a vacuum zone down to 4068. This is exactly the level the S&P 500 subsequently tested after breaking down. Luckily for our portfolios, we did see great support at 4068, but new lows is never a good sign. After testing 4068, we were then bought back up above 4144, but remain bounded by 4178. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish despite a small uptick from the pivot from 4068. It is reasonable to expect some ranging, but if the selloff continues we must break through support at 4068, then 4009 is the next target, and last technical level in the 4K's. If we are able to somehow breakout, we expect 4306 to be a ceiling for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Possible Outcomes on S&P500 and Trading Opportunities. I believe that market structures are a representation of market sentiment. So if I'm able to understand the current situation based on the times that happened in the past and its evolution. I can get a good idea of the possible outcomes. In today's post, we will start by defining the current context, and then we will look for 4 situations in the past that I found with similar or same price action as the one we can observe right now. CURRENT CONTEXT: I see an ABC pattern after a bearish impulse. 2019: 2018: 2018: 2015: My conclusion based on these scenarios is that after the breakout of the lower trendline of the corrective structure, we tend to observe some type of pullback. A new low works well to confirm the beginning of a new bearish impulse. (as you can see on the next template) However, on the bullish side, this is the template that I found useful to think about long opportunities. -------------------------------------------------- With all the previous elements in mind, I will leave here the current context with both bullish and bearish filters. Remember: As traders, it's not our job to forecast the next price movement. To be honest I think 99,9% of people are terrible at that. Including myself. After 3 years of consistent trading i have realized that I'm right 50% of the time (or that my forecasts are not better than flipping a coin) HOWEVER it's my job to make smart bets. And what is a smart bet? For me, it's a situation where I know I have a 50% chance of being right, BUT if I'm right I will make 2 times what I'm risking. This approach has helped me achieve consistency by focusing on these "Smart Bets" Or High-quality situations. It's very important that you combine this with a great Risk Management that helps you avoid being knocked out when you are going through a Draw Down period. In my case, as I execute 2 setups a month on average, I use 2% to 3% of my capital on every stop loss. Trade like a CASINO! Thanks for reading. Please feel free to share your view and charts in the comments.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ThinkingAntsOk
2
Stocks on the Precipice of a MELTDOWNThe S&P 500 has broken down from 4144, establishing new relative lows. Recall that 4144 provided good support and we appeared to have an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming with a neckline at 4306. However, this was swiftly rejected, which is a very bearish sign for stocks. We've also broken through the 'head' of the inverse H&S at 4144, but appear to be finding support at 4122, which is the last major level of support before a potential freefall lower. There is a vacuum zone below 4122 to 4068, then another one after that to 4009. At that point, we will be at the base of the 4K handle and free to test the high 3K's. If we are able to pivot from here, 4306 will provide formidable resistance.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Face Resistance at our LevelAs we mentioned yesterday, stocks got good support from lower levels, but faced resistance at 4306. Recall that we highlighted this as the level to break for the S&P 500 to see higher levels. The KRI indicates that we are seeing strong resistance here. That being said, we could be in the midst of forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern with 4306 as the neckline. Watch for stocks to dip lower and find support above 4144, at 4214 in particular. If we are able to break out then 4364 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Can Stocks Recover??The S&P 500 has gained support from lower levels, 4144 in particular. This seems to be a relative low for now, and we have called this level out multiple times here in these reports. We are currently seeing a bit of a pivot, after some volatility, however volume looks weak and the Kovach OBV remains unfazed by the bounce. Thus, we are skeptical of this small rally, but if it continues, 4306 is the level to break befoore considering higher levels. If the bear momentum continues, then 4144 should continue to provide support. If not, we expect 4122 to be a floor price. If this level breaks, we are likely to freefall.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy