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Stocks Reach Our Target!!Stocks had another day of gains, breaking out to test 4408, the exact level we identified here in these reports. We are seeing two red triangles at this level on the KRI suggesting it is providing resistance for now. The price action does appear to be rounding off, suggesting that we may be in for a retracement or some ranging. Candidate levels for a dip include 4380 and 4327. The Kovach OBV is still pretty bullish but does appear to be rounding off as well.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Blast Off After FOMC!!Stocks have rallied after the first rate hike in three years by the Federal Reserve. Novice traders might surmise that stocks would collapse off this news, however dedicated readers here should have been prepared. We called this rally days ago. Why? The rate hikes have been priced in months ago and we are seeing a 'relief rally' which follows with more clarity on monetary policy.We pivoted from 4144 and shot up through multiple levels to break highs at 4327. When the decision came we saw a brief pullback then a subsequent rip to even higher leves (A friend bought at 4261 and crushed it, cheers MJ!!). From here we can expect either ranging or higher prices, but will likely see resistance at 4421. We must break this level to see anything higher. Currently, we are seeing a brief pullback to 4327, where we should find support. If we retrace further 4293 should provide further support.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Relief Rally in Stocks ahead of FOMCStocks got a major lift ahead of the FOMC rate decision today. As we are all well aware, the Fed is expected to lift rates by 25 basis points (one quarter of a percent) to begin their 'firefight with inflation' . The rate hikes were heavily priced into the markets, and when the decision is made, we can expect a relief rally as the uncertainty is lifted. Inflation is weighing on global stocks, so the action could help ease investor fears. The Kovach OBV has picked up sharply with the buying, taking us all the way back up the entire range to 4327. If you recall this was our exact level from yesterday's report. It is likely that the majority of the rally has taken place, but we could test as high as 4421, a relative high. If we face resistance, however, we could retrace the entire rally back to support at 4144.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Two Reasons to be Wary of Stocks 📉Stocks are hanging by a thread as investors weigh a new Covid outbreak in China , and Geopolitical Tensions . The stock market in China has crashed with 2008 level severity as investors panic over the potential of new Covid lockdowns and sanctions as a consequence of support for Russia. US stocks have been hit as well, with the S&P testing relative lows at 4144. We do appear to be getting good support at this level confirmed by green triangles on the KRI, but we are not seeing much follow through. The level below, 4122 is a significant low, and the barrier between current levels and the lower 4K handle. If we are able to break 4122, then we will likely test the lows of the 4K's. If we see momentum, then 4214 is the next target, about mid way between the range between 4144 and 4327.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Why We Are Still Not Hopeful of a Stock RallyThe S&P 500 has edged up but remains volatile. We made a brief run for relative highs at 4327, but that was swiftly rejected. We appear to have bottomed out at 4214, where we have found support. It appears that we are seeing a slight pivot from this level, but are facing resistance at 4245. Despite hopeful headlines for stocks to rally here in the West, Chinese stocks have tumbled in their worst day since 2008 over concerns about China's close relationship with Russia. We highly doubt we will see a significant rally today, but if we we do, we must break 4327, before we can hit higher levels. The next significant target after that would be 4408.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1
Stocks Breaking Out from Bull Wedge Pattern!! 🚀📈Stocks made a run for relative highs but still appear to be having trouble with relative highs at 4272, which was the exact level we called out yesterday. This and 4293 remain hard upper bounds for the S&P 500. At the time of this writing, we are seeing a small uptick, but these levels remain upper bounds in what appears to be a bull wedge pattern forming. The Kovach OBV is trending upwards suggesting a bull price divergence, and therefore we might anticipate a breakout to higher levels. This is a much anticipated breakout as stocks have been holding onto lower levels all week. We were eyeing 4144 and 4122 as these appear to be the barriers to lower levels around 4K. If we are able to solidly break out from the bull wedge pattern, we still have multiple levels of resistance in the but 4327 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Exuberance Fading in StocksThe S&P saw a nice rally but the hope soon faded. We were able to break 4272, but rejected 4293. Bulls are encountering steep resistance at multiple levels and the momentum we saw just doesn't seem to be sustained. The Kovach OBV has edged up ever so slightly, but has quickly leveled off. We appear to be finding support at 4243, confirmed by two green triangles on the KRI. However we must solidly break 4272, then 4327 in order to begin to establish a bull trend and consider higher levels again. We should see support at 4144, then 4122 which should be considered a floor price for now. In the event of an absolute melt down, if 4122 does not hold, there is a vacuum zone down to the low 4K's.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Trade idea on NVDA.Trade idea on NVDA. This is an update on a setup I'm interested in trading if everything gets aligned with the current filter I'm using. In the current context, we can see that the price has been on consolidation for the last 107 days, with a drawdown of 40%. So, based on that context, I looked for similar scenarios in the past using the logarithmic chart, and these are all the similar conditions I observed. If you take all of them, you will see a consistent pattern after the breakout, where we tend to observe a correction. Assuming a trade in all of them on a new high and a stop loss on a new low, I have concluded that the pattern is profitable; therefore, I will be looking for this movement before developing setups. Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your view or charts in the comments.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by ThinkingAntsOk
3
Stocks Face Volatility... Can the S&P500 Recover??Stocks have pivoted off lows, stubbornly refusing to break 4144, and test relative lows at 4122. There is talk that market participants think that the worst is behind us, especially with regard to the Russia/Ukraine war, which shows no sign of resolution yet. We remain unconvinced and still see much risk to the downside. If 4122 does break, we should be clear to test the lower 4K handle in the S&P 500. If we do find footing, then we must solidly break 4272, then 4327 in order to consider higher levels again. Stocks have remained quite volatile lately, and the Kovach OBV is flat, registering their lack of a clear direction. Trade with caution, but 4144 and 4272 could be ideas for mean reversion trades if this behavior continues.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Will 1929 Repeat?Will history repeat ? The bar pattern overlapped shows a really interesting view on the market structure compared to 1929. Things are looking very much the same 100 years later. Price hit the 3.618 Fib extension in 1929 and crashed shortly after with the tension of war at the time, you had the Sino-Soviet conflict with Russia and china in 1929. 100 years later we seem to be having the same world circumstances where there is war with Russia involved and we have also hit the 3.618 extension not only that we have also hit this 100 year resistance line that has caused massive muti year pullbacks whenever hit. I have been following six month RSI bearish divergence for a while now and it now seems with have broken down from this triangle we were in , take a look below. Zoomed in picture of the bar pattern It is possible we have one more upthrust to the 4.618 before a big crash this can take 1 year to play out. Human nature is cyclical we tend to repeat behavior and you can see that in the charts .
TVC:DJIShort
by Sporia
7
Stocks Test LowsStocks have opened in the red this week. The S&P 500 has retraced almost the entire range, from 4408 down to 4144, just a few points away from the relative low at 4122. We are currently seeing a nice pivot from that level confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. However the Kovach OBV is still quite bearish. The key level to watch is 4122. If this fails to provide support, then there is a vacuum zone below to 4068 and 4009. If we somehow catch a burst of momentum, then 4392 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Cautious as War Rages OnStocks have been feeling out the 4300's and low 4400's. We made a brief attempt to test 4400, which was quickly thwarted by 4408. It seems that the war between Russia and Ukraine is still instilling market participants with trepidation, especially after Russian forces attacked a nuclear power plant in Ukraine. The S&P 500 has since rejected highs and tested lows of the value area at 4272. From here we could test highs again, but will have to break 4408 in order to consider our next profit target at 4440. From below, if we break 4272, then 4122 remains our anticipated floor, but we will likely see support at 4230 first.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Bull Wedge Pattern in Stocks 📈🚀Stocks keep edging up, but remain bounded from above by 4380. We appear to be forming a bull wedge pattern at this level, with several red triangles on the KRI to confirm resistance here. The Kovach OBV is slightly bullish as well, suggesting a bit of a bull divergence. If we break out, we have several levels above to provide resistance, but ultimately, the next target is 4440, a relative high from January, and strong technical level. If the breakout fails and we reject 4380, then 4272 should provide support. If not, 4228 should be considered a minimum lower bound for now.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Still Undecided as Ukraine Crisis IntensifiesStocks have retraced further from relative highs at 4408. It looked like we might have been gearing up for a bull run to test 4440, but geopolitical woes seem to keep weighing, and two red triangles on the KRI suggest that 4408 is providing prohibitive resistance for now. We have since retraced back to 4272, but seem to have good support there. Currently, we are seeing a brief pivot from 4272, which has brought us to the midpoint of this level and 4408. From here it could go either way, but it is likely we will need some resolve to the Russia/Ukraine crisis to break higher. If we sell off further and 4272 does not hold, then 4228 is the next relative low where we should expect support, then 4122. If we can break 4408, then 4440 is the next target.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
BA is on my watchlist. Here is why. Boeing is one of the biggest airplane manufacturers in the world. Alongside producing other technologies regarding the aerospace industry. * Since 2019, Boeing has been going through tough periods and a clear bearish trend that reached an 80% decline in march 2020. * Since there the price has been moving up, and after the breakout of the descending trendline, we have been observing a consolidation movement (yellow lines) * These types of consolidations in the weekly chart tend to be amazing opportunities to wait for the breakout and look for trading opportunities after that. Let's take a look at the weekly logarithmic chart: As you can see, this is not the first time Boeing has been on a huge bearish trend. That's why studying all these previous situations may bring great insight into what we are waiting for before trading. At the moment, my plan is: Wait for the breakout and look for a correction + study what past corrections look like in the previous scenarios. I will expand this idea after further study. Remember: DEFINE everything in advance and wait for the price to fulfill your filter or cancel your setup. That's a powerful edge. Feel free to share your view or chart in the comments!
NYSE:BA
by ThinkingAntsOk
4
Geopolitical Conflict Hits StocksStocks have begun to dip off of stepped up efforts with Russia to move in on Ukraine. Russian forces are close to the capital, Kyiv, and markets are reacting. We have strong safe haven inflows, as per bonds and gold, and the S&P 500 has just rejected a relative high at 4389. The Kovach OBV was increasing, but has curved over with the rejection. If we do find support at current levels, watch for a bull wedge or other bull consolidation pattern to form under 4389. If we retrace further, 4245 should provide support. If we are able to break out from 4389, 4440 is our next target, but this is not likely for today.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy