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Inverse Head and Shoulders in Stocks??Stocks have picked up, but the markets have quite a bit to digest. The Ukrainian president is meeting with Russia to discuss terms, which may give the markets some hope to the resolution. However, sanctions are slamming Russian banks and the world is fearing oil supply issues. That being said, we appear to be seeing an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming with a neckline at 4364. The Kovach OBV has picked up tremendously from where it was when stocks were at lows this week. This suggest a bit of a bull divergence, and a potential breakout could take us to 4440. If we retrace further, we could test lows again at 4122 but 4245 is likely to provide support first.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Swing After Markets Weigh Russian SanctionsStocks had a wild ride yesterday. We sold off to 4122, where we found support and retraced the entire move back to 4293, over a hundred points, before retracing a bit to the mid 4200's. This degree of volatility in the stock market makes it difficult to foresee what today or next week has in store, but we may be starting to form a massive inverse head and shoulders with a neckline in the mid 4200's. The Kovach OBV has picked up from lows suggesting there is real buying happening as stocks bottomed out. If this is the case, then we can expect the S&P 500 to make a run for 4364 again, then 4440. If not, we could retrace the entire move back to 4122, but this seems less likely.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2
What the Russian Invasion of Ukraine Means for StocksStocks have plummeted after Russia attacked Ukraine. We were seeing an inverse head and shoulders type pattern forming with a low of about 4272, but strong bear momentum smashed through this level and headed down further into the 4100 handle. Currently, we are finding support at 4122, where a green triangle on the KRI is providing support. After that, there is a vacuum zone to 4068, then 4009, the very last level in the 4000 handle. It is likely stocks will try to jostle for footing, so expect some volatility today. We could retest 4272 again, but that is most likely the ceiling for today.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
2 Years later, ARKK is in the same place. Today I will update my view on ARKK from the previous post I made. I found it super interesting to see how one of the most renowned assets in the post-pandemic era has erased ALL its gains from the beginning of the bear market back in February 2020 until now. From a logarithmic perspective, we can see that the current decline is the deepest one and almost doubled previous declines. Now I would like to go into technical elements and the situation where we may have interesting trading opportunities. I am still paying attention to the internal descending trendline. Trendlines are incredible tools to help you avoid getting into the market at the wrong moment. For example, here, the descending trendline can be interpreted as "Below the trendline, avoid bullish setups. Above the trendline, start thinking in bullish setups." But that's not all; I don't want to see a breakout of the descending trendline only. I want to observe a clear correction with the proportions you can see on the circle. IF that happens, I will trade on a new local high towards the higher zone of the descending channel. If nothing of that happens, because the price keeps falling into the ugliest correction of all, I would stay on the sidelines until the technical elements confirm that we are in a good situation to develop setups. Thanks for reading; feel free to share your view and charts in the comments.
AMEX:ARKK
by ThinkingAntsOk
8
Can Stocks Break Out??Stocks have been struggling to find footing in the wake of Russia tensions. As we mentioned before, stocks found support at 4272. A green triangle on the KRI confirmed the support here. We are currently attempting a bit of a pivot from here, with 4364 providing resistance for now. We are seeing a (rather messy) inverse head and shoulders type pattern here with a "neckline" at 4364. If we are able to break out from this, we will surely see resistance at 4440, then 4580. The Kovach OBV still is not convinced of any bullishness at this point, and is remaining at lows for now.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Selloff with Russia TensionsStocks turned sharply lower as the Russia/Ukraine crisis has escalated. Putin has sent troops to separatist regions in the Ukraine and the UK and EU have suggested to respond with sanctions. We have retraced the range fully, testing 4272 once more. Recall that this level has been in our reports all this month, so you should have been prepared. We are seeing support here at 4272, and appear to be attempting a pivot from this level. However the Kovach OBV is still bearish, suggesting that we may be seeing some headwinds. Our next target is 4364, then 4440. We should continue to have support from 4272 in the event of another selloff, but if that breaks, then 4245 is the next level where we can expect support.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
This is the movement I want to see before trading XAUUSDXAUUSD is one of my favorite assets to trade alongside S&P500, Crude oil, and BTC. I'm interested in the current zone because we are on the upper level of the range where the price has been moving since May 2021. It's from this type of situation where we tend to observe reversal movements or breakouts of the level for further bullish movements. The filters I'm working on are for bullish continuations, which I want to see before trading . a) Clear breakout of the current resistance level b) After that, I want to see a 14 days correction, as you can see on the circle. c) IF that happens, I will trade (maybe on a new local high) towards the next resistance level (previous all-time high); the expected risk to reward ratio of a setup like this can be around 2 to 2.5. Now, I will wait for the price to fulfill my filters, and if that happens, I will trade. If that doesn't happen, I will stay on the sidelines. Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your view and chars in the comments.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ThinkingAntsOk
4
Don't fall for the NarrativeThere's a general narrative going around of "buy the dip" and "look at these undervalued stocks". The goal here is not to compare Facebook to Microsoft to Paypal as companies, but to look at relative price structure between a handful of popular stocks. In this case, we have a few giant companies; Tesla , Facebook and Microsoft , charted against the smaller Paypal and Netflix , and which have taken a recent beating (along with Facebook ). The lines in the chart are an 1800 week linear regression of Microsoft's per-dollar performance relative to the M2 . The lines don't mean anything and are merely a rough guideline of history-projected asset strength. The prices are M2 adjusted to account for money supply expansion. Facebook has been underperforming since 2018 after making a huge run in 2013 onward, but the notion that "it's a good deal" hardly stands up if you look at the relative trajectory of Microsoft and Tesla . Facebook was one of the biggest to rise, and was one of the first to fall. Microsoft on the other hand has a huge history of being an efficient capital allocator, and will probably be one of the last to fall. Let's ask the question: If Microsoft and Tesla make the same correction as did Paypal and Facebook , do you think Paypal and Facebook will be lower or higher following this hypothetical correction? The gut feeling here is that Paypal/ Facebook / Netflix /Peloton etc. COULD end up falling even more, given that many of these larger cap stocks are still standing well. I would rather short Tsla / Msft than long Paypal/ Facebook / Netflix /Peloton etc. given the current environment. It's easy to want to fomo into these stocks when you look at a year or two of history, but I think this paints a more realistic picture. Good luck and hedge your bets :) Note: The arrows are not price targets, just medium term directional indicators.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by fringe_chartist
Stocks Dive but Find SupportThe S&P 500 has retraced from relative highs at 4487, reentering the previous value we identified yesterday. Recall that we asserted yesterday that if stocks retraced, they would likely enter the value area between 4272 and 4440. We do appear to be finding support roughly in the middle of this range, just above 4364, where we saw support Monday. Stocks could be feeling out a new value area between 4364 and 4487, relative highs. The Kovach OBV has curved over, suggesting that momentum has dried up for now. If we continue our descent and break through 4364, then 4272 is sure to provide support. If we see a rally, then we must break 4487, then 4580 is the next target.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
This is what I want to see on PYPLThe first thing to say is, "I'm faaaar away from developing a setup right now on PYPL; when things are melting, trying to find a bottom is a really unprofitable business (or at least for me). So that's why I use relevant supports/resistances or trendlines as main levels before thinking about developing new setups. In this case, the first trading opportunity I would be interested in is IF the price can break the first trendline. IF that happens, I want to see a correction, and a setup on a new high may be a good opportunity to get exposure to a new bull run. I would like to add to this explanation why I always wait for breakout + correction before trading. This is because most of the time, we don't observe levels being broken like if nothing were there, most of the time when the price reaches or breaks a key level we will tend to observe some kind of retracement (this is valid both for bearish and bullish directions). Waiting for this is a good way of avoiding fakeouts because you are not entering on the first breakout. This means that your drawdowns will tend to be more controlled because you are able to avoid A LOT of low-quality situations by doing this. The negative side is that sometimes the price breaks the level like if nothing were there and you miss the setup (however, I have realized that this is the exception) Going back to the PayPal explanation, I think patience will be my strategy here; I want to see a clear bottom which means observing several more candlesticks before saying "oh, this is reversing" and then paying attention to the descending trendlines, as the first place where I'm thinking on developing setups. At the moment, PYPL stays on my watchlist as "WAIT WAIT WAIT." Thanks for reading! Please feel free to share your view and charts in the comments.
NASDAQ:PYPL
by ThinkingAntsOk
3
Eurozone 100 gives a hintA few important notes here: We failed to sustain 3500 thus far after 2 breaks above trend and about 10 tests total of the trend in the new year. We haven't retested the low of 3400 which was only tested once/twice since the new year. If you look at what the RSI is telling us about local momentum, we'll see more downside UNLESS we can pull off a 3500 retest, which the market is aiming to do, but is looking rather weak. RSI avg (yellow) hasn't broken below 30 so it looks like an impulsive and risky buy here, rather than a safe buy.
EURONEXT:E100Short
by fringe_chartist
E100 gives a hintA few important notes here: We failed to sustain 3500 thus far after 2 breaks above trend and about 10 tests total of the trend in the new year. We haven't retested the low of 3400 which was only tested once/twice since the new year. If you look at what the RSI is telling us about local momentum, we'll see more downside UNLESS we can pull off a 3500 retest, which the market is aiming to do, but is looking rather weak. RSI avg (yellow) hasn't broken below 30 so it looks like an impulsive and risky buy here, rather than a safe buy.
EURONEXT:E100Short
by fringe_chartist
Conclusions on the current context on MAToday, we will look at Master Card, a key name in the information & technology sector, with a market cap of 375B. As a comparative thing, VISA has a market cap of 484B So, what are the main technical elements we can observe here? 1) The price has been inside a massive daily correction of 275 days, and a few weeks ago, we observed the breakout of it. 2) Now, we can observe a clear "throwback" (name to define the retest movement after a breakout on a bullish trend) that has been developing on the last 15 days One of the fundamental aspects of the way we trade is understanding the current context and comparing it with historical data (that's why I love using the logarithmic chart) As you can see, this is not the first time we have observed a correction of this size, and this has been a common behavior since 2007. What's my conclusion on this? Take all those corrections I have shown you in the Log chart, and check this concept "Drawing the corrections in the same way I'm doing it on the main chart of this post" after we have the breakout and the throwback, on average, trading on a new high its a great level to get exposure to a possible bullish movement. Of course, this is not working in all of them, but I can see an edge that I need to polish a little more before defining my final setup. (For this basic test I conducted, I placed stop losses below the throwback) What if this keeps falling? Then you don't trade What happens if you trade this and it's a stop loss? That's always a chance, to be precise, 50% of the time that happens to me, so make sure you control your risk (The general concept is 1% risk per setup) and only trade if your risk to reward ratio is equal to or higher than 1.8 Thanks for reading; I hope this was useful, and feel free to share your view and chart in the comments! Thanks.
NYSE:MA
by ThinkingAntsOk
6
Stocks Range, Anticipating Russia/Ukraine DevelopmentsStocks are ranging after inching past resistance at 4462. The S&P 500 was able to break this level of strong resistance but just barely, encountering resistance at the next level at 4487. We met resistance here confirmed by several red triangles on the KRI, and then retraced back to support at 4431. The Kovach OBV has leveled off completely suggesting it could go either way from here. The markets are clearly not convinced that the Russia/Ukraine saga is nearing a close. If we retrace further, we will reestablish the value area between 4272 and 4440. If we see a burst of momentum, then we must clear 4462 again, then the next target is 4521. After this we must solidly break 4580 before considering higher levels.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
This is my current plan on ROKUROKU is down 70% from the previous "ATH" and is below a clear descending trendline; I'm really interested in this kind of name to look for opportunities in case a new bull run comes. My main thesis to support the idea that a new bull run may come is on the logarithmic chart. As you can see, these big drops have already happened in the past , and after that, we observed massive bullish movements. So my view is that there are similarities between them and that past behavior may repeat again. Ok, nice that these mean that we should buy now? Of course not; that's why we use technical analysis to detect common patterns between all these past situations and try to find which would be the most efficient way of trading this "opportunity." My conclusion is that I want to observe breakout followed by a correction in the daily chart of 7 to 12 days and a clear 10% retracement. IF that happens, then I will be interested in trading on a new local high in the same way you can see on the chart, with a target on the next major resistance level. What happens if the price keeps falling? Then I will not trade, and I expect a move towards the next support. From there, I will look for the same setup I'm mentioning here. Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your view and charts in the comments!
NASDAQ:ROKU
by ThinkingAntsOk
6
ARKK | Inside the descending channel Today we will look at the current situation on ARKK. Technical Elements: -The price has reached the lower zone of the cloned channel. -Inside the descending channel, we can observe a descending trendline. The main element I want to highlight here is that the price had reached a significant target for the bearish movement. Can the price keep falling? Of course, nobody knows with certainty what the price may do. However, we are in an excellent spot to start thinking about possible bullish situations. What's the idea I'm developing? Wait for the breakout of the current descending trendline + a corrective pattern (red circle) IF that happens, I think we have good bullish potential to trade on a new local high towards the higher trendline of the descending channel. At the moment, this is an idea that requires patience to see how the price evolves. Thanks for reading!
AMEX:ARKK
by ThinkingAntsOk
5